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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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lol Don't tell that to any Cretan even as a joke.
Although i could sell you a tollbooth of the Rio-Antirio bridge 
Ether_Snake
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What I expect from the Merkel and Hollande meeting, is Hollande making a televised speech saying that Europe has reached an impasse, and that if the union is to last reforms are needed. He'll say that a short-term sacrifice must be made so that Europe will be better positioned to handle such a crisis in the future, which will inevitably come, and that discussions must take place regarding the needed reforms to implement and how those discussions could not take place while the union fights among one another, let alone as it disintegrates. Therefore in order to diffuse the situation and make those reform discussions constructive, healing must begin now, and the small sacrifice made today by cutting Greece's debt to manageable levels will allow the union to avoid a much bigger crisis in the future.
It's the only way to put an end to the bickering: you have to raise the stakes with a bigger crisis, so that people can accept a compromise on the current crisis.
I expect this to work out as a more likely scenario than Greexit.
It's the only way to put an end to the bickering: you have to raise the stakes with a bigger crisis, so that people can accept a compromise on the current crisis.
I expect this to work out as a more likely scenario than Greexit.
Not his kind. He'll rather make a speech on the necessity for Europeans to stay united, will call for solidarity.
Damerman
Member
how? you have no choice to work within your means.
Ether_Snake
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That goes in line with what I said. There's no point in saying that if he won't push for Greek debt cut.
He won't talk about reforming anything, not at a EU level at least, or say that there's no solution (impasse) to the Greek crisis, though.
I expect him to fully follow Jacques Delors' analysis.
The debt cut is a given, as far as France's concerned.
I would love to own a home on Crete. Stunning place and my favorite part of Greece. So I hope they stay in the Eurozone for that reason selfishly.
One of the best vacations I ever had was renting a small house in Elounda. Greek food is amazingly repetitive yet infinitely delicious. And it is surprisingly healthy.
Anyway derail, but good luck Greece and thanks for civilization and tzatziki.
One of the best vacations I ever had was renting a small house in Elounda. Greek food is amazingly repetitive yet infinitely delicious. And it is surprisingly healthy.
Anyway derail, but good luck Greece and thanks for civilization and tzatziki.
Wealth is not a fixed quantity but is continually generated. Austerity hinders generation of new wealth.
They don't have to go to war to get their money back. This is still an ongoing battle with Argentina when they defaulted in 2001. http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-06-19/sovereign-debt-reliefs-setback-at-supreme-court
*Tax income
PIB = GDP
Basically, Greece collects more money in taxes that the average in the EU
But those Greece guys are so lazy and corrupt.
What channel was this one? Edit: Never mind I am stupid.
AuthenticM
Member
I wonder if it would be better for Greece to leave the EU ?
EU or Eurozone?
shinra-bansho
Member
What is the expected outcome of the ECB conference call today?
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/gov_10a_main
It presents a somewhat misleading snapshot though, I think, in trying to imply revenue collection hasn't been a part of this problem.
An older article posited that the size of the shadow economy and inability to collect revenue it is in fact the more major part of the problem with Greece's finances.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2010/05/14/7831/the-greek-myth-of-profligacy/
It's accurate as at the most current situation according to Eurostat (2014)
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/gov_10a_main
It presents a somewhat misleading snapshot though, I think, in trying to imply revenue collection hasn't been a part of this problem.
An older article posited that the size of the shadow economy and inability to collect revenue it is in fact the more major part of the problem with Greece's finances.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2010/05/14/7831/the-greek-myth-of-profligacy/
I put my money on nothing: the ECB will let the Eurogroup take decisions on Tuesday.
spindoctor
Member
I want to be a fly on the wall when Varoufakis walks into the room with a swagger and demands more money from 'terrorists'.
You know that's going to be one amazing meeting.
You know that's going to be one amazing meeting.
My Greek friends before austerity: "Hell yeah we dodged taxes, only a goddamned sucker pays 100% of what's due."
My Greek friends on Facebook since the meltdown: "How dare you propagate such a simplistic stereotype..."
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
We just bought Ukraine according to Russians on Twitter so I can't imagine we have the cash for that.
ECBs decision is the most important, I agree with you that they should do nothing, keep ELA and haircuts in tact even though funds are perilously low. ECB holds the cards though, Draghi & Co are the king makers.
Doubt they pull ELA but would they considering upping it once more? Critical to get some more money into the system.
Edit: by nothing I mean keep ELA going.
Coriolanus
Banned
They don't even need to argue much. Just take his plan and bring it to the bundestag. It'll be rejected and done deal. No muss, no fuss.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
I've been reading quite a bit on this because it is fascinating, so I wanted to throw some thoughts out there. People here might know more than me, so if I'm saying something that sounds wrong out of ignorance, please understand that it's just ignorance and I welcome learning and links to other material.
Essentially, I don't see how this can work without forgiveness of debt outright. The Greeks are cutting social programs to pay money back to their creditors that they can almost never pay back in full because they just don't (and won't likely ever) have the GDP to do so. This is a poor analogy, probably, but many of the arguments that I have read for voting "no" seem akin to the arguments that people make for walking away from large college debts - won't have the salary to ever do anything but pay interest so might as well take the credit hit and be out from under that debt.
When it comes to the EU OR the Eurozone, I don't see how Greece can be driven out without repercussions. Already, we see Spain and Italy eyeing a Grexit-like strategy; maybe they can make it on their own, too, if Greece can withstand the pain of having to re-issue their own currency.
Furthermore, drive Greece out of the grasp of the EU, and they turn to Russia and China, who are essentially willing to help Greece out monetarily to gain a stronger diplomatic foothold in Europe. You also risk radicalizing the Greek electorate even further by totally turning off the spigot and letting them go back to the drachma. They suffer economically and parties like Golden Dawn seize power - not a good look for Greece (or maybe it will be a left-wing Communist party that does so if not Golden Dawn - not clear on whether or not GD is in the position to take advantage of this).
It's got to be worth forgiving this debt at least partially to the EU not to have to deal with Russia and China making inroads on the continent. It would hurt the value of the Euro in the short term, but in the long term, it seems like it would be best for everyone, especially those interested in a unified Europe.
If there are others who think this analysis is half-baked, I welcome your explanations as to why.
Essentially, I don't see how this can work without forgiveness of debt outright. The Greeks are cutting social programs to pay money back to their creditors that they can almost never pay back in full because they just don't (and won't likely ever) have the GDP to do so. This is a poor analogy, probably, but many of the arguments that I have read for voting "no" seem akin to the arguments that people make for walking away from large college debts - won't have the salary to ever do anything but pay interest so might as well take the credit hit and be out from under that debt.
When it comes to the EU OR the Eurozone, I don't see how Greece can be driven out without repercussions. Already, we see Spain and Italy eyeing a Grexit-like strategy; maybe they can make it on their own, too, if Greece can withstand the pain of having to re-issue their own currency.
Furthermore, drive Greece out of the grasp of the EU, and they turn to Russia and China, who are essentially willing to help Greece out monetarily to gain a stronger diplomatic foothold in Europe. You also risk radicalizing the Greek electorate even further by totally turning off the spigot and letting them go back to the drachma. They suffer economically and parties like Golden Dawn seize power - not a good look for Greece (or maybe it will be a left-wing Communist party that does so if not Golden Dawn - not clear on whether or not GD is in the position to take advantage of this).
It's got to be worth forgiving this debt at least partially to the EU not to have to deal with Russia and China making inroads on the continent. It would hurt the value of the Euro in the short term, but in the long term, it seems like it would be best for everyone, especially those interested in a unified Europe.
If there are others who think this analysis is half-baked, I welcome your explanations as to why.
travisbickle
Member
Protestant work ethic has been a root argument by some in this whole crisis.
I think people are dickheads for implying some kind of moral ethic to labour, but I don't think they are nazis.
No. You 've met the stupid ones. Every country has a percentage.
And i 've met few of them, myself.
But i usually know and meet people that were the goddamned suckers, hardworking people that lost their jobs and hopes, the very same people that are struggling to endure the austerity plague and the same ones that voted NO.
And that is all that matters in the end.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
You're welcome.
My mum and I are discussing buying a place on one of the islands. We should be doing that before they leave EZ right?
Not that what you say does't make sense, but it's easier said than done. Since the EU isn't a complete union, people from different countries don't want to be taking losses for each other to make sure their union remains stable. Therefore it is hard to do this politically. The average person in these EU countries doesn't really consider the stuff you're talking about and sees Greece as useless. And the language from their politicians, also eager to not have to cancel the debt so they don't hurt their party's election chances, doesn't help. E.g. when was the last time someone in the US heard pervasive complaints from rich states that generate money about the poor states that take money? Not very often, but it happens here too. But in the EU, this is constantly the case. Since they are not a combined political entity and since the people think of themselves as separate (and also have no control over each other's policies unlike here where federal policies have some effect on states you may not be in) they do not see the value in having the poorer / less productive countries in the union, so it becomes hard for politicians to do the things you say even if they make sense.
The EU is China's biggest trading partner, so I'm not sure why they would want to prevent China from "making inroads". It's not infeasible that China would offer a loan, as they have done so for other high-risk debtor nations in the past, but thus far only in the developing world. I do not see how this is a threat to Europe, though.
As for Russia, they don't need to make any inroads; Syriza is already pro-Russia. Not only have they just signed an oil pipeline deal, they also support Russian-backed separatists in Crimea and opposed sanctions for the invasion of the Ukraine if you can believe it. What more can they offer?
Windom Earle
Member
Varoufakis and Tsipras are frauds/criminals. These amateurs should have never received the reigns over a country.
zero shift
Banned
Good job.
Of course Syriza would not be in power if not for this fiasco. And yes, if Greece is isolated from Europe they would be crazy not to seek the backing of another large power. They are located in a very bad area surrounded by instability, and are tiny and without many resources. So they will for sure strengthen relationships with either China, Russia, or both if they become isolated from the EU, and far moreso than what relationship they have with Russia now. You can bet on that.
Randomizer123454444
Member
Problem with forgiving debt is that if we can forgive one country, why can't we forgive others? Countries will be lining up to ask debt forgiveness. Then they are not loans, they are donations.
Greece is also a member of NATO. If Putin really does play by the international relations rulebook of realism like Mearsheimer argues, he'll stay far away from Greece.
A Fish Aficionado
I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
And how is that anything bad?
The "our money vs their debt" is why the crisis has lasted so long in Europe.
Coriolanus
Banned
Yerp, just like how it happened when the german debts were forgiven.
curlyfriski
Banned
Economist Thomas Piketty: Germany has never repaid its debts
https://medium.com/@gavinschalliol/thomas-piketty-germany-has-never-repaid-7b5e7add6fff
https://medium.com/@gavinschalliol/thomas-piketty-germany-has-never-repaid-7b5e7add6fff
If you default on your debt you'll find it harder sell your bonds/t-bills in the future, essentially you'll have to give higher returns in order to find takers.
No country in its right mind will go that route if it can avoid it.
I'd like to congratulate and thank Greece on reminding me of my earlier years of studying economics and accounting and that in the real world debt carries a risk to creditors and the troika were morons in trying to ignore that. Them shifting private debt onto public books wasn't the greatest move either.
Ether_Snake
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100% agree. Especially this:
That's exactly what Tsipras had pushed for when he arrived. Too bad the other southern states were too spineless to support him.
Yep it defeats the entire purpose of Greeks paying a higher interest rates if European banks are going to get guaranteed bonds with no repercussions.
Heard this today and would love to hear others thoughts that are more informed then me(Hint: Im not very informed at all).
https://www.wnyc.org/radio/#/ondemand/515506
https://www.wnyc.org/radio/#/ondemand/515506
Earthstrike
Member
Yep, One of the most damaging things a political narrative that oversimplistically characterizes debt as bad is strip away the fiscal responsibility of lending institutions from the fact that they are in possession of risk when they lend.
1. Did the EU use any kind of forensic accounting or auditing to determine the veracity of greek economic data when presented to the EU as a basis of joining?
2. Will a default result in fiscal losses for the lender who took the risk or the general public who did not?
These are questions we need to see popping up more often.
What the hell is wrong with you?
AuthenticM
Member
Whichever gives them more freedom.
Also, would it be a good thing if Greece dropped the Euro for their own currency ?
Frozenprince
Banned
So make the situation even worse by destroying the only form of credit they have.
Makes sense.
It's a giveaway rather than credit at this point.
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