Support NeoGAF

[adamsapple]

GTA 6 will earn $7.6bn in two months and be the "largest gaming release of all time", investment firm predicts

It's not magic brain science to suggest GTA 6 is going to be big, but one investment firm has suggested it's going to b…

www.eurogamer.net

It's not magic brain science to suggest GTA 6 is going to be big, but one investment firm has suggested it's going to be big to the tune of $7.6bn in just two months, while also securing the accolade of "largest gaming release of all time."

That's according to Josh Chapman, managing partner at "thesis driven investment firm" Konvoy Ventures (thanks GameSpot). Chapman shared his predictions over on LinkedIn, suggesting GTA 6 will be the "largest gaming release of all time, shattering records of copies sold and revenue generated within almost every period of time".

More specifically, Chapman believes Grand Theft Auto 6 will generate $7.6bn USD in revenue in the first 60 days of its launch, and that it'll recoup its development costs in under a month. It's worth noting, however, all this is based on certain unconfirmed assumptions. Chapman's maths assumes the base version of GTA 6 will cost $80 (neither Rockstar nor publisher Take-Two Interactive have announced a price yet, but there's certainly precedent), and his predictions are also based on a speculative development budget of $2bn - a figure that's long been rumoured, but never actually confirmed.

Things then veer away from the financial to the perhaps a little fanciful, with Chapman calling GTA 6 the 'next user-generated platform'. More specifically, he predicts it'll "have a UGC component that includes creator payouts for server hosts, mod creators, and more (mimicking the creator economics of [Fortnite] and Roblox)", alongside "200-person lobbies [with] higher risk/reward dynamics where you can raid and steal items from players more easily."

None of that's particularly far-fetched, of course, but neither is it supported by any real evidence, but given Chapman notes, "In the end, we're just gamers who can't wait to see this title released", there's maybe a bit of room for some enthusiastic wishful thinking.

GTA 6 is currently expected to launch for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S on 26th May next year, following its not exactly unexpected delay in May. And there's little doubt it's going to be big; as Take-Two confirmed earlier this year, GTA 5 has now sold an astonishing 210m copies since its release 12 years ago, so it's probably not unreasonable to assume its massively anticipated sequel will manage to do that and then some.

 

[amigastar]

They will get my money thats for sure.

 

[Magic Carpet]

152 million copies on PS5 in 2 months?

edit-wait I keep forgetting Xbox still has a few million that might buy it. So only 130 million PS5 copies? I don't think that many PS5's exist in the world.

 

[Celcius]

Could be 10 billion if we didn't have to wait for the PC version

 

[BossLackey]

I will be shocked if it's not the single largest entertainment release of all time.

 

[Vlodril]

That's a very specific number. Seems improbable to me.

 

[R6Rider]

 

[thekillergreece]

Wishful thinking.

 

[Arsic]

Day one for me.

 

[DR3AM]

Concord 2 will make 8 billion in 2 days

 

[Aenima]

Ppl sure are thirsty for a new GTA, but only releasing on consoles im not so sure if it will reach the "Biggest release of all time". I have my doubts but GTA does crazy things, we will see.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

And we will still be waiting for the RDR2 "next gen" patch

 

[proandrad]

Not just gaming, in all of entertainment.

 

[clarky]

152 million copies on PS5 in 2 months?

edit-wait I keep forgetting Xbox still has a few million that might buy it. So only 130 million PS5 copies? I don't think that many PS5's exist in the world.

GTA online is where the big bucks are.

 

[unclbenn]

Don't forget about the revenue from gta6 online

 

[Hawk The Slayer]

100% but only if it's also on PC during the first two months.

Without it being on PC it's a 50/50 chance of happening.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

152 million copies on PS5 in 2 months?

edit-wait I keep forgetting Xbox still has a few million that might buy it. So only 130 million PS5 copies? I don't think that many PS5's exist in the world.

95 million, $7.6b /$80. That's almost 3x faster than GTA V in the first two months. There is no way it's happening.

 

[Rosoboy19]

What if it sucks lol

 

[SomeNorseGuy]

It's going to be a massive release, no doubt about it.

 

[Hollowpoint5557]

I'll grab it when its on sale for $15 eventually.

 

[Magic Carpet]

95 million, $7.6b /$80. That's almost 3x faster than GTA V in the first two months. There is no way it's happening.

Don't forget Sony's 30%
At $80 That leaves $56 per copy for Rockstar.

 

[Rush2112]

And playstation will be there to collect all the money since Xbox has stopped making consoles. GTA VI will not be coming to Nintendo or PC on launch. That means if you dont have a PS5, you wont be playing it.

 

[Spyxos]

GTA 6 will earn $7.6bn in two months and be the "largest gaming release of all time", investment firm predicts

It's not magic brain science to suggest GTA 6 is going to be big, but one investment firm has suggested it's going to b…

www.eurogamer.net

That seems too high, even for GTA 6. I can already see articles coming out about why GTA underperformed despite being the best-selling game ever.

 

[EverydayBeast]

Classic franchise that will have its moment but predicting video game sales is weird on n64 they use to be PROUD of sales on the cover of they just sold a million

 

[Sethbacca]

152 million copies on PS5 in 2 months?

edit-wait I keep forgetting Xbox still has a few million that might buy it. So only 130 million PS5 copies? I don't think that many PS5's exist in the world.

PS5 Pro sales are gonna go through the roof once GTA 6 drops. People are gonna want to play this the best way possible.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I mean, I guess that's impressive to some extent?

 

[March Climber]

So 130 million PS5 copies? I don't think that many PS5's exist in the world.

 

[Rosoboy19]

And playstation will be there to collect all the money since Xbox has stopped making consoles. GTA VI will not be coming to Nintendo or PC on launch. That means if you dont have a PS5, you wont be playing it.

It's being released for Series consoles also, not sure what you mean

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Don't forget Sony's 30%
At $80 That leaves $56 per copy for Rockstar.

I was assuming gross sales

 

[Hudo]

And I bet it will still have the mid-ass gunplay of GTA 5.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

And playstation will be there to collect all the money since Xbox has stopped making consoles. GTA VI will not be coming to Nintendo or PC on launch. That means if you dont have a PS5, you wont be playing it.

Someone here has been hinting that the next gen Xbox will coincide with the release.

 

[SILKYSMOOTH30FPS]

I 100% believe that. When you edge your fanbase for over a decade, and your game is pleasing the hardcore, the casuals and ultra casuals, your release will be as big as it gets in gaming. Its too bad its not coming out on pc on day one cuz the launch will be even bigger. Then again, double dipping is their strat, and i get it, it'll work flawlessly.

 

[Chuck Berry]

Classic franchise that will have its moment but predicting video game sales is weird on n64 they use to be PROUD of sales on the cover of they just sold a million

Can you try using a larger picture next time Mr. Robot?

 

[Evil Calvin]

Not if it is a broken mess.....or a 'mid' game like Mind's Eye (although I think that game is alright)

 

[Magic Carpet]

PS5 Pro sales are gonna go through the roof once GTA 6 drops. People are gonna want to play this the best way possible.

PC will get released eventually.

 

[Sethbacca]

PC will get released eventually.

Oh, no question, but no telling when. In the short term if you wanna play it this is gonna be the best way (barring a new Xbox console, but I can't imagine too many people are wanting to continue to invest in that ecosystem after the last few years)

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Most of those sales will be on PS5, Sony must be drooling.

 

[Deerock71]

152 million copies on PS5 in 2 months?

edit-wait I keep forgetting Xbox still has a few million that might buy it. So only 130 million PS5 copies? I don't think that many PS5's exist in the world.

Switch 2 announcement incoming...

 

[LakeOf9]

I hae no doubt it will do extraordinarily well, but those numbers are unhinged

 

[jm89]

Most of those sales will be on PS5, Sony must be drooling.

According to ampheree playstation is also the biggest playerbase for GTA online. Ps5 going to do numbers.

 

[Inanilmaz]

This will be Sony's best exclusive game to date cant wait for ps5 sales to overtake the ps2

 

[onQ123]

GTA 6 will earn $7.6bn in two months and be the "largest gaming release of all time", investment firm predicts

It's not magic brain science to suggest GTA 6 is going to be big, but one investment firm has suggested it's going to b…

www.eurogamer.net

I don't think so

 

[larrybrady]

Ps5 Bundles will disappear the second they hit the shelves…..

 

[Felessan]

Some "analysts" really like bullshitting in projections

Don't forget about the revenue from gta6 online

GTAO is 0.5-1 bil per ~year~
R* aint very good at monetization online

I 100% believe that. When you edge your fanbase for over a decade, and your game is pleasing the hardcore, the casuals and ultra casuals, your release will be as big as it gets in gaming. Its too bad its not coming out on pc on day one cuz the launch will be even bigger. Then again, double dipping is their strat, and i get it, it'll work flawlessly.

Total install base of xbox+ps in US is around 50 mil. So even 30-35 mil on launch would be a very high number.
And all that bullshit about sandbox blablabla belongs to trash bin (it takes years to grow that stuff and current playerbase for that is not gta playerbase).

 

[Soodanim]

No, yes.

Easy answer, nothing more to add.

 

[Loomy]

I'm assuming they're expecting the MP to launch day 1.

 

[onQ123]

By the way the GTAVI hype is what some Bitter Critters fear & they want to get their trolling out of the way now before the landslide.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

Ppl sure are thirsty for a new GTA, but only releasing on consoles im not so sure if it will reach the "Biggest release of all time". I have my doubts but GTA does crazy things, we will see.

GTA V is still the biggest release of all time and that was not on PC either. GTA 6 will absolutely smash the record for best launch of a game

 

[Grildon Tundy]

It's such a big deal, I won't even be able to take time off work without people assuming GTA VI is the reason why.

 

[The Fartist]