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Harry Reid to Bernie Sanders: 'math is math' 'sometimes you just have to give up'

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Honestly, I really like Sanders, and as does my wife who can actually vote in the US. I'd have loved to have seen Sanders vs Clinton vs Someone Who Is Not Actually A Giant Piece of Shit Who Would Destroy America, because I really think Bernie would have stood a chance. As it is though, going with the safer nominee to ensure that Lord Voldemort is defeated seems like the best option.

This scenario would just split the democratic votes and guarantee a republican presidential win.
 

linsivvi

Member
Forget about 08, most people here aren't old enough (or weren't even born) to remember that Jerry Brown didn't drop out either. At that time he was as anti-establishment as Bernie is right now. He didn't even endorse Bill at the convention.

People are such chicken littles.
 
Bernie has a good chance to win pledged delegates. That is a good enough reason to fight on.

Super delegates can sway with the wind .
 
Bernie has a good chance to win pledged delegates. That is a good enough reason to fight on.

Super delegates can sway with the wind .
He does not have a good chance to win pledged delegates. And, so far, the only super delegates that have switched were from Bernie to Hillary.
 

FStubbs

Member
The differences between Hillary 2008 and Bernie now:

The GOP alternative is far more dangerous than McCain
Bernie is in scorched Earth mode

This is why people want him to wrap it up.
 
It's funny how people throw this math argument around, even though Hillary's math still had her losing back in 2008. Her being closer is irrelevant. It was almost a mathematical certainty that she would lose.

And she was criticized heavily for it.

A huge portion of Hillary's supporters this time around are previous Obama supporters, not Hillary. We've seen her in both positions now. We know she was a sore loser, which is why we so easily recognize Bernie as somehow managing to be an even sorer loser this time around.

---

Anyway, the entire "flip the superdelegates" is an embarrassing childish fantasy for both Bernie and his supporters. It reveals one of their fundamental misunderstandings about Hillary:

There are people in the United States who voted for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders, not because they are "low information voters", but because we sincerely think she is the better candidate for a large variety of reason. We exist.

The idea that he's going to flip the superdelegates against both a voter and delegate plurality only works in this stupid fucking vacuum people have constructed where only Bernie has enthusiasm and no other politician is allowed a political agenda that can provide challenge. Hillary's supporters will push back and not allow this garbage to take place.

I think most Hillary supporters have been understanding of the perspective as to why someone would be dissatisfied with Hillary and support Bernie (at least I am); in contrast, it feels like Bernie supporters have been incapable this entire election of simply taking Hillary supporters at their word that they want Hillary more, which has fueled this ridiculous journey into theoretical delegate quantum mechanics, the accusation that every election is fraud, and the general conspiratorial approach that anyone not for them is a paid agent.

If Bernie actually accomplished the flip like he thinks he's going to, it will be the greatest disenfranchisement of the black vote since Jim Crow. If that's the "progressivism" we're being sold, I'm perfectly happy slamming the door in its face.

Edit: Beaten by a day by Nate Silver, who says how I feel far more concisely.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Jun 1
My favorite part of Sanders’s underwear-gnomes strategy to flip superdelegates is how Clinton's voters are magically totally chill with it.
 

Maxim726X

Member
What's the point in Bernie just giving up?

A few reasons:

- His bargaining position is going to take a hit on Tuesday
- Him holding the party captive is preventing the party from focusing on Hillary Vs. Trump.
- The longer he stays obstinate, the harder it's going to be to support her as the nominee (IF this even happens at this point... It's not his party so I have no idea why he would) when he does finally bow out.
 

Diablos

Member
Unifying the Democrat bloc as early as possible to focus 100% on trump.
This. People are underestimating Trump. Every passing day that Democrats are divided is another good day for Republicans. Plus the economy isn't looking so rosy either. Time is of the essence. This isn't 2008 where the Republican brand was so damaged because of Bush that Democrats could drag out their primary and not really have to worry about the consequences.
 
Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

Winning is important to people and Clinton inspires confidence.

Smug Clinton supporters are obnoxious but Berniebros that regurgitate Republican recriminations towards Clinton without realizing they're shooting themselves in the foot are giving them a run for their money. Or maybe not - shooting themselves in the foot implies they have any stake in this election other than backing this cycle's Ron Paul. They come out every 4 years and then disappear into thin air when they're needed to vote for anything other than POTUS.
 

Maxim726X

Member
Winning is important to people and Clinton inspires confidence.

Smug Clinton supporters are obnoxious but Berniebros that regurgitate Republican recriminations towards Clinton without realizing they're shooting themselves in the foot are giving them a run for their money. Or maybe not - shooting themselves in the foot implies they have any stake in this election other than backing this cycle's Ron Paul. They come out every 4 years and then disappear into thin air when they're needed to vote for anything other than POTUS.

Sadly, I think your last post is 100% accurate.

Knowing some personally, they care only about 'destroying the system' (whatever the fuck that means), and have no interest in engaging in any other part of the political process. Which is precisely why I find it so odd that the party is giving in to any of his demands at all.
 
I'll never forget when that bird landed on Bernie's hand and everyone felt it in their hand, too. Sanders was more than a candidate. He was a conduit.
 
It's funny because the demographics that got Obama the win are the same ones going for Hilary. You'll find that many of the Clinton supporters here were previous Obama supporters
 
I ask you Harry Reid, what true revolution ever started on doing math problems? Exactly.

#StillSanders

I'll never forget when that bird landed on Bernie's hand and everyone felt it in their hand, too. Sanders was more than a candidate. He was a conduit.
And yet if you ask a member of the DNC, they'd tell you that it's mathematically impossible for a bird to land on his desk out of the billions of possible places to land. And yet, it happened.
 
I ask you Harry Reid, what true revolution ever started on doing math problems? Exactly.

#StillSanders


And yet if you ask a member of the DNC, they'd tell you that it's mathematically impossible for a bird to land on his desk out of the billions of possible places to land. And yet, it happened.


I heard Sanders speak and it was like a firm breeze, like a steady unyielding force pressed up against me. You wouldn't believe me if I told you.
 
If Clinton is forced to drop out, then Biden will be the nominee. Clinton and the Superdelegates will take the safe option in that scenario. People are forgetting the professional politicians are more than able to do the calculus and in an emergency situation where Clinton is removed for legal reasons, they're not going to go with a candidate as patently unvetted as Sanders.

Then you can say hello to a Sanders/Stein Green party ticket and a guaranteed GE loss. Because that's what will happen if they try and wheel Biden in as an emergency option over the guy who got 45% of the vote.
 

Emarv

Member
Then you can say hello to a Sanders/Stein Green party ticket and a guaranteed GE loss. Because that's what will happen if they try and wheel Biden in as an emergency option over the guy who got 45% of the vote.
A Biden/Warren ticket would probably be enough to unite the party. Though I'm not sure why we're even talking about this random hypothetical.
 
Sadly, I think your last post is 100% accurate.

Knowing some personally, they care only about 'destroying the system' (whatever the fuck that means), and have no interest in engaging in any other part of the political process. Which is precisely why I find it so odd that the party is giving in to any of his demands at all.

They're compromising, and they're doing so in an attempt to make sure that they keep as many Bernie supporters as they can for the GE.
 
A Biden/Warren ticket would probably be enough to unite the party. Though I'm not sure why we're even talking about this random hypothetical.

Sanders stealing just 5% of the vote away from Biden would be enough to hand the election to Trump.

If you don't think he can manage that with his popularity and the fundraising prowess he has shown, then I don't know what to tell you.

The only question is whether or not he would do it. And in the event that they blocked him from the nomination in favor of a guy who did not win a single delegate, I would say there is a significant chance. His response to questions regarding a 3rd party run has changed dramatically from where it was months ago, when he clearly and firmly rejected the possibility.

He had an interview with TYT the other day about if he would support a third party candidate who more closely aligned with his views over Clinton, and he basically avoided the question entirely and just went into a spiel about being the longest running independent congressman in history.

Similarly, He was asked a week ago if he'd run with the Greens, and he gave another vague, non-answer.
 

ThisGuy

Member
2016_06_03_11_21_12.jpg
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
The differences between Hillary 2008 and Bernie now:

The GOP alternative is far more dangerous than McCain
Bernie is in scorched Earth mode

This is why people want him to wrap it up.


He can only make her better at this point.

A few reasons:

- Him holding the party captive is preventing the party from focusing on Hillary Vs. Trump.
- The longer he stays obstinate, the harder it's going to be to support her as the nominee (IF this even happens at this point... It's not his party so I have no idea why he would) when he does finally bow out.

- There's 50 politic years before the election. Bernie staying in another few weeks doesn't hurt anything.
- If Trump is so bad, people shouldn't allow their love for Bernie to stop them from voting out Trump.

Unifying the Democrat bloc as early as possible to focus 100% on trump.

Well then.....obviously Trump isn't as bad as people say he is if he can't unify the Democrat bloc.
 
He'd only really be screwed if Medusa Heads were involved.

Medusa Heads aren't even that bad. They're tricky, but the falcons aim for you. If you can nail down the Medusa Head patterns, they're so much easier to deal with (the room before Death for instance is one of the simplest rooms for me, assuming I can carry a Holy Water there which I almost always do).

He can only make her better at this point.

I don't agree. Bernie pushed her fairly left, but hasn't done much in recent months to that effect.
 
I used to buy into the "he's just pushing her more left guys", but I don't really buy it anymore. She was already as left as him on a lot, and many of his beliefs (anti-GMO, anti-nuclear, protectionism and isolationism, etc.) don't even really fall on the left-right spectrum - they're just popular beliefs without an ideological rationale (or a even a scientific/evidence-based reason).

Sanders supporters didn't want her more left, they wanted her to just unequivocally adopt Bernie's platform. That's fine, but I wish they'd just come out and say it.
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
Sanders stealing just 5% of the vote away from Biden would be enough to hand the election to Trump.

eh

depends on where that vote comes from

5% of the vote isn't 5% of the electoral college vote, especially since all but two states have winner-take-all distribution of electors

if he's pulling most of this 5% support from the more liberal states anyway, it won't matter at all
 
"very clear, narrow path to victory" means Bernie winning every remaining primary by like 80-20.

Seems legit. Totally plausible.

If you're going to use a "math is math" argument you technically have to accept that possibility.

And I am all for Hillary winning.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Well then.....obviously Trump isn't as bad as people say he is if he can't unify the Democrat bloc.
A significant portion of liberals voted Nader instead of Gore in 2000. If only a portion didnt there would no recount. No Bush. No Iraq War.



Did that mean Bush wasn't as bad as people say?
 
It's pretty simple.

Hillary will have a majority of the pledged delegates on June 7th, but Hillary will not have a majority of delegates on June 7th.

Superdelegates, which only pledge at the convention, are the balance, and in theory exist to flip a tight race to the candidate who would fare better in the general election.

Bern looks better in the general against Trump according to most polls, so 'Superdelegates should all support him to assure victory' is the current Sanders supporter argument.

The superdelegates almost all signed up for Clinton before the entire race even started, on the basis she was the strongest candidate in the general election. Based on current polls, if their reasoning held up, they should now change their vote and flip it to Bernie.

This obviously won't happen. But that's the argument. Sanders will simply not be mathematically eliminated until the superdelegates cast their vote at the convention, so Hillary will not ever be the presumptive nominee, she will be ahead in pledged delegates but will be handed the nomination by superdelegates.

Nailed it.

The thing about Sanders argument that doesn't make sense is the aftermath. Let's say he is able to flip enough Superdelegates to win, even though he has constantly insulted them as establishment sellouts, let's say that he somehow convinces them.

It would represent a staggering disenfranchisement of Black voters, especially in the South. How does Sanders possibly heal that rift? Clinton will have won more pledged delegates and will be leading in total vote by 3 to 5 million voters. How could the party possibly unify after that? It would be one of the biggest repudiations of democracy in the last 100 years. And the best argument that Sanders can put forward is that he performs better in polls about an hypothetical matchup 6 months away. What do you think those polls will look like after he subverts the will of well over half of his party?

The reason that Clinton started with a Superdelegate lead is because she started with an endorsement lead. Should party leaders not be allowed to endorse the candidate they prefer when they choose to do so? Even if you removed the superdelegate system, history shows that Endorsements are one of the primary factors in influencing voters. Clinton's advantage would still be there.

Sanders' and his supporters stance on superdelegates is a great example of the larger issues of his campaign. Magical thinking mixed with a total inability to actually listen to differing opinions.
 
eh

depends on where that vote comes from

5% of the vote isn't 5% of the electoral college vote, especially since all but two states have winner-take-all distribution of electors

if he's pulling most of this 5% support from the more liberal states anyway, it won't matter at all

And what about states like Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania where he either won or got over 40% of the vote? All those states would be in play for Trump if Sanders went third party.
 
A significant portion of liberals voted Nader instead of Gore in 2000. If only a portion didnt there would no recount. No Bush. No Iraq War.



Did that mean Bush wasn't as bad as people say?


Now more than ever people need to maintain the integrity of the two-party system.
 

Tain

Member
Malvolio said:
Yeah Harry, but Bobby in June of '68. We remember.

Was about to say.

Yes I understand what you're saying, I'm pointing out that if you begin from the position that Bernie should drop out, which is explicitly what I'm accusing you of doing, and then con yourself into back-filling whether or not he has a chance, you'll come up with some metrics that define whether or not he has a chance and come up with the answer no.

Hillary Clinton did not have a chance on June 1st, 2008. She did not have a chance on May 28th, 2008. She certainly did not have a chance on June 4th, 2008. Bernie does not have a chance now. No one is compelled to drop out the second they don't have a chance, and more importantly, it doesn't matter when they drop out.

Yeah, the deluded Bernie fans who think he's going to win are annoying, but it's also annoying--maybe even moreso--to see Hillary fans yell and yell until they're blue about something that doesn't matter. You won. Magnanimity in victory, not shitting on the loser because he won't admit he's a loser in strong enough terms for you.

Good post.
 

kirblar

Member
It's funny because the demographics that got Obama the win are the same ones going for Hilary. You'll find that many of the Clinton supporters here were previous Obama supporters
I wonder what could have changed to make white people shift away from Clinton this time.....
 
Personally, I don't care if he drops out or not. What I do care is whether or not he's going to bring about party unity. He's already helped to cultivate and assemble conspiracy theorists and ideological purists. He's assured other Dems in the senate that he will bring party unity. But it doesn't particularly seem like he's started pivoting to do that.

Hillary supporters are quite a pompous group. Such a stark difference from Obama and Bernie supporters.

This is the kind of attitude that Clinton inspires. It will be interesting to see how that changes the Democratic Party.

Nah. People are just sick of the "burn it all down" politics and peddling of right wing talking points against Hillary.

The anti-establishment fervor has clouded rational thinking to the point where many Bernie supporters would rather see Trump elected.

When you break it down issue by issue, Hillary is substantially better than Trump on progressive issues.

-Climate Change/Environment
-Women's issues
-Taxes
-Wall Street
-Minimum Wage
-Institutional Racism/Criminal Justice
-LGBT Issues
-Immigration
etc.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I used to buy into the "he's just pushing her more left guys", but I don't really buy it anymore. She was already as left as him on a lot, and many of his beliefs (anti-GMO, anti-nuclear, protectionism and isolationism, etc.) don't even really fall on the left-right spectrum - they're just popular beliefs without an ideological rationale (or a even a scientific/evidence-based reason).

Huh? Protectionism is absolutely a political policy of the left globally; virtually every protectionist policy post turn of the 20th century has been justified by protecting domestic jobs in labour-friendly industries from unfair capitalism. (that there's a billionaire nativist who is similarly pursuing protectionism as justified by "Brown People Are Bad, So Let's Put The Screws To Them" doesn't change protectionism's connection to labour activists). In America, the face of protectionism is manufacturing in Michigan, also ground zero for American labour. Dove foreign policy is also hallmark of the left, since at least Vietnam--Who's the most relatively progressive presidential candidate of all time? George McGovern, who ran on peace. Bernie's foreign policy has never been grounded in isolationism, but rather in peace (isolationism in explicit terms has largely been the provenance of classical liberals on the right like Ron Paul). And yes, in America's case, anti-nuclear has been associated with the left for 50+ years, since Silent Spring pivoted American environmentalism from hunting-fishing conservationism a-la T.R. to the traditional tree-hugging image--it wasn't the John Birch Society repelling off the golden gate bridge to protest nuclear submarines, it was Greenpeace.

Far from Bernie supporters "not wanting Clinton to move to the left, just wanting her to be Bernie", you're doing the opposite--you want to be able to claim the mantle of being left, but carve off the unsavoury policies you disagree with. What you are describing as the left is the post-third way center-right Clinton/Blair/Chretien left. It's OK to admit you're not a leftist, or that you're a moderate leftist, or that you share concern about income inequality but hate the cultural elements of the left, or whatever else. You don't need to redefine the label just to exclude Bernie because you think he's a quack. I can't tell if your misread here is being driven by Trump's heterodoxy or just total disbelief that the left could look anything different than it did in the 90s, at its furthest right.
 
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