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[Foobar]

How do you fathom that the promise of an FPS would necessarily be a selling point for a handheld system?

FPS, Point and Click Adventure, RTS... there's many genres that can now exist on a handheld and existing genres that can be improved by the use of a touch screen, especially platformers and RPGs.

I'm not looking for Half-Life or Halo on the DS, but MP Hunters, Perfect Dark? Hell yes. I would like a game of Warcraft on the go.

 

[GDGF]

FPS, Point and Click Adventure, RTS... there's many genres that can now exist on a handheld and existing genres that can be improved by the use of a touch screen, especially platformers and RPGs.

I'm not looking for Half-Life or Halo on the DS, but MP Hunters, Perfect Dark? Hell yes. I would like a game of Warcraft on the go.

Metroid Prime hunters is going to be the first non japanese million seller for the NDS, (just soothsaying, here ) and if Goldeneye has similar mouselook controls, it'll be big, too. FPS's are definitely going to be a big seller on the NDS, but it may take the release of the full version of MPH to kickstart everything.

 

[Deku]

I get the sense that the strong pronouncements that the PSP will [ABSOLUTELY] win is a facade based on faith that Sony knows what it is doing and that PSP's superior hardware will win out at the end of the day.

If you look at this objectively, Sony don't always know what it is doing and it has released many promising superior hardware that never quite took off and in the portable market indeed in the marketplace in general, superior hardware doesn't equal superior sales.

One thing that is worth noting is that those who believe in the PSP is putting a whole lot of faith that the PSP will continously outsell the DS sometime in the future when Sony can match demand. Conversely DS supporters assume the same, probably intentionally to annoy the PSP folks. Holding all things constant while projecting sales based on vague impressions of a product is a mistake. That is always dangerous. It assumes Nintendo/Sony won't respond to each other. That's always mistake #1 when people attempt to project hardware sales into the future.

The picture right now is this.

#1) The DS has the lead and it grows daily
#2) Sony has the superior hardware but is unable to manufacture enough units

By the time PSP production get up to speed the DS lead could be as big as 4-5 million units (rough guesstimate).

Many people seem to forget that despite the impression of being a superior machine, and having the 'TRUST' of a lot of gamers coming off the SNES, the Nintendo 64 never did manage to overcome the PlayStation's lead. Yes, it launched much later than the PSP did, but then again, it never faced the same supply problem the PSP faced and actually outsold the PSone by a wide margin initially and continually outsold it until Christmas 97 when the software picture decided the tide in Sony's favour.

Partisans who declare victory based on DS's early lead or the PSPs superior hardware is deluding themselves.

Tactically, the DS has won. But the battle has just began.

 

[Ninzendo]

One thing is for certain. The superior hardware always comes out on top. Especially in the handheld market.

 

[GDGF]

The picture right now is this.

#1) The DS has the lead and it grows daily
#2) Sony has the superior hardware but is unable to manufacture enough units

You've got alot of people who wish to ignore those two very important factors here, ya see

 

[Culex]

One the is for certain. The superior hardware always comes out on top. Especially in the handheld market.

WHAT?!

If history has proved us anything, it's that superior hardware NEVER comes out on top in the handheld market. Nintendo has always had the inferior tech with it's Gameboy line, and has beaten down every single, more advanced competitor.

 

[Amir0x]

WHAT?!

If history has proved us anything, it's that superior hardware NEVER comes out on top in the handheld market. Nintendo has always had the inferior tech with it's Gameboy line, and has beaten down every single, more advanced competitor.

He was uh being sarcastic

 

[Culex]

He was uh being sarcastic

Oh OK!

*wipes sweat from forehead*
:lol

 

[Ninzendo]

WHAT?!

If history has proved us anything, it's that superior hardware NEVER comes out on top in the handheld market. Nintendo has always had the inferior tech with it's Gameboy line, and has beaten down every single, more advanced competitor.

Come on man!

 

[Amir0x]

Partisans who declare victory based on DS's early lead or the PSPs superior hardware is deluding themselves.

This is true.

Tactically, the DS has won. But the battle has just began.

This is not true. "Tactically", the DS has not won. Neither has the PSP. What DS won was a single battle. It may win more. It may lose more. Same applies to the PSP if it wins any battle.

 

[Culex]

I'm betting the PSP is recieved far more graciously in the US than in Japan. The fact that there probably won't be shortages as terrible as in Japan should help, too.

 

[Deku]

This is true.



This is not true. "Tactically", the DS has not won. Neither has the PSP. What DS won was a single battle. It may win more. It may lose more. Same applies to the PSP if it wins any battle.

I was unclear and very vague. In terms of their respective launches, Nintendo has won a tactical battle insofar as arranging a launch that has put them roughly 3+ million units on the market to Sony's 600+ units

I understand your analogy also, but I was thinking in terms of tactics < strategy hierarchy whereby the overall strategy is the macro level and is still being played out where as tactics are micro level shorter terms plans and in that sense, DS has won on a tactical level insofar as launch tactics is concerend.

 

[Amir0x]

I'm betting the PSP is recieved far more graciously in the US than in Japan. The fact that there probably won't be shortages as terrible as in Japan should help, too.

I don't know. If it releases simultaneously in Europe/US I'm predicting some major shortages.

It could be bad. But hopefully by the crucial Christmas season - when the tide will begin to really turn in the favour of either DS/PSP - they will have similarly good shipments so that we can see which one starts to trend positively.

I was unclear and very vague. In terms of their respective launches, Nintendo has won a tactical battle insofar as arranging a launch that has put them roughly 3+ million units on the market to Sony's 600+ units

I understand your analogy also, but I was thinking in terms of tactics < strategy hierarchy whereby the overall strategy is the macro level and is still being played out where as tactics are micro level shorter terms plans and in that sense, DS has won on a tactical level insofar as launch tactics is concerend.

Ah, yes. Well then I can't find anything to disagree with when you put it this way. Seems about right.

 

[Culex]

I don't know. If it releases simultaneously in Europe/US I'm predicting some major shortages.

It could be bad. But hopefully by the crucial Christmas season - when the tide will begin to really turn in the favour of either DS/PSP - they will have similarly good shipments so that we can see which one starts to trend positively.

They're barely making 100k per week right now, however, I find it hard to believe in 3 months time, they can't maunfacture enough for 2 more launches. Did Sony even plan?!

 

[GDGF]

I'm betting the PSP is recieved far more graciously in the US than in Japan. The fact that there probably won't be shortages as terrible as in Japan should help, too.

I'm betting it will be, too. In Japan, I will go so far as saying the DS as victor by this Christmas, as far as Sony playing every card that would make a difference, and the NDS still retaining a large lead, and outselling the PSP 2:1 or more a month for an extended time.

The US is going to be a tougher battle. A longer battle.

 

[Amir0x]

They're barely making 100k per week right now. I find it hard to believe in 3 months time, they can't maunfacture enough for 2 more launches. Did Sony even plan?!

I think Sony is trying very, VERY hard to pull the rug out from under Nintendo's feet. You can see it with every decision they make. In this case, however, it might have blinded them to alternatively superior strategies. I don't know if they'll end up on top at some point, but they have to be careful or they risk ruining any progress they could make.

But think of it this way... in order for Sony to meet its 3,000,000 target, it has to release at least 500,000+ units in both Europe and US and Japan has to reach at least 1.5 million by the end of March. It has, what, 600,000 units currently?

Meeting such demand is going to be ridiculous. I'm having a hard time believing they can meet their projections unless they're seriously going to ramp up production during February.

 

[Deku]

It's all in the software.

Despite assertions to the contratry, this isn't a pong machine vs. the PS2.

Both are capable 3-D machines and while the PSP can do them one a much grander scale and a make it look much better, this gap isn't much different the the Game Gear's Master System guts vs. the Game Boy's monochrome graphics which actually looked worse than the NES. There was no question then either which system had the better technology.

The end result though is we will all benefit. I look forward to some very good games in the coming months. In fact, I'm already wondering about what kind of games Nintendo and Sony will have lined up at E3 this year.

I think Sony is trying very, VERY hard to pull the rug out from under Nintendo's feet.

My assesment actually is that the opposite occured. Sony made noise about the PSP way before Nintendo did. Nintendo then turned around and announced and launched the DS in less than a year total and forced Sony to launch the PSP in 2004 instead of a lazy roll out, probably with the expectation that Nintendo will look on helplessly as the PSP launched.

 

[Culex]

I think Sony is trying very, VERY hard to pull the rug out from under Nintendo's feet. You can see it with every decision they make. In this case, however, it might have blinded them to alternatively superior strategies. I don't know if they'll end up on top at some point, but they have to be careful or they risk ruining any progress they could make.

But think of it this way... in order for Sony to meet its 3,000,000 target, it has to release at least 500,000+ units in both Europe and US and Japan has to reach at least 1.5 million by the end of March. It has, what, 600,000 units currently?

Meeting such demand is going to be ridiculous. I'm having a hard time believing they can meet their projections unless they're seriously going to ramp up production during February.

I think last count, the PSP was at 540k, without the current week (10-16) factored in. Did sony really project 3 million? That's absurd.

 

[cvxfreak]

If anyone was wondering, the DS is currently winning.

 

[Amir0x]

My assesment actually is that the opposite occured. Sony made noise about the PSP way before Nintendo did. Nintendo then turned around and announced and launched the DS in less than a year total and forced Sony to launch the PSP in 2004 instead of a lazy roll out this year.

Yes, but what I mean is that Sony is obviously trying to steal the handheld leadership away from Nintendo, so they're making all sorts of moves to counteract the fact that DS got to the market first and to counteract the perception that there can only be one key player in the handheld industry, and it comes in the name of "Gameboy." Now it's DS, but you get the general point... Sony wants PS to be synonimous with handheld gaming like it is with console gaming, and they're basing their strategies as strongly as possible in getting to the market fast, at a super cheap price and with software support that will appeal to the older demographic (i.e., tons of EA support).

I think last count, the PSP was at 540k, without the current week (10-16) factored in. Did sony really project 3 million? That's absurd.

They're predicting 3,000,000 worldwide by the end of March. I keep trying to do the math in my head but I can't conceive of that happening, unless Sony really REALLY steps up and finds a way to meet demand.

I predict tons of faulty units if that happens!

 

[Deku]

They're predicting 3,000,000 worldwide by the end of March.

Or it is just a pie in the sky number stuck at the end of march for reporting and book keeping reasons.

Yes, but what I mean is that Sony is obviously trying to steal the handheld leadership away from Nintendo, so they're making all sorts of moves to counteract the fact that DS got to the market first and to counteract the perception that there can only be one key player in the handheld industry, and it comes in the name of "Gameboy." Now it's DS, but you get the general point... Sony wants PS to be synonimous with handheld gaming like it is with console gaming, and they're basing their strategies as strongly as possible in getting to the market fast, at a super cheap price and with software support that will appeal to the older demographic (i.e., tons of EA support).

Yes, that is obvious what they want. I think Nintendo, see it too even from their ivory towers of gaming heaven.

That said, from my understanding, the DS cartridges are actually cheaper to manufacture than the UMDs, although Nintendo still faces an uphill battle with storage, I think it would be interesting how the 3rd party support spread out. If I'm a developer planning software titles and projecting sales, I also have to take into account the existing userbase for the DS. This may not be as big to say, TakeTwo who only has to plan mostly based on US and European sales, but for a company like Namco, Square or Capcom, where their sales are essentially concentrated in both Japan the US and Europe, that total userbase is going to matter a bit more and could lead to superior JP third party support for the DS (again, just conjecture).

DS development seems to lend itself well to a lot of third party support. Even if we don't assume there is a price advantage in the manufacturing, games for the DS will probably be much cheaper to develop.

 

[GDGF]

They're predicting 3,000,000 worldwide by the end of March. I keep trying to do the math in my head but I can't conceive of that happening, unless Sony really REALLY steps up and finds a way to meet demand.

I predict tons of faulty units if that happens!

I agree! We should make some kind of soothsaying webpage

 

[Amir0x]

Or it is just a pie in the sky number stuck at the end of march for reporting and book keeping reasons.

Well, now that I looked it up they said 3,000,000 by "early" April it seems... I guess that's only slightly more plausible. But still, I don't see how they can meet it by then.

Source

Those waiting for the PSP's American launch won't have to wait too long. Kutaragi stated today that the PSP is on schedule to see release in Europe and America some time March. That means just a couple months waiting!

SCE hopes to sell 3,000,000 PSP units worldwide by early April, Kutaragi reiterated today. This number could rise if SCE can increase production at its plants. (Amir0x's Note: Yeah right!)

But yeah, this is the definition of pie in the sky.

Yes, that is obvious what they want. I think Nintendo, see it too even from their ivory towers of gaming heaven.

That said, from my understanding, the DS cartridges are actually cheaper to manufacture than the UMDs, although Nintendo still faces an uphill battle with storage, I think it would be interesting how the 3rd party support spread out.

I dunno. IGN seems mixed on this front... but here's what they said...

Source

Each Universal Media Disc (UMD) can hold as much as 1.8 gigabytes of data, more than a dozen times more data than what Nintendo's advertising its Nintendo DS cartridges can store. Discs are also much cheaper to produce than cartridges, though the addition of a caddy shell around each and every disc may add a bit more to the cost.

I'd like to see which one is more expensive, though. Third party support seems to be remarkably evenly split, with about as many games being developed for each platform as you'd expect. EA is obviously supporting PSP just a bit more (OPM confirms), while Square seems to be pushing the DS more.

DS development seems to lend itself well to a lot of third party support. Even if we don't assume there is a price advantage in the manufacturing, games for the DS will probably be much cheaper to develop.

Yeah, this I agree with. It'll be interesting to see what kind of homebrew development we see for such an advaned piece of hardware like PSP. Although to Sony's credit, they have apparantely developed tools that make the dev environment much more comfortable.

 

[Deku]

The discs are probably cheaper than the current GameBoy advance cartridges which uses legacy chips from the N64 era, mostly 8 MB to 16 MB roms.

The chips Nintendo are using for the DS are based off of Matrix Technologies new ROM process and from my understanding, they are write once chips, which allows for better inventory management since third parties can simply place an order and Nintendo will just pull a bunch of empty chips and burn the game into a bunch of empty pre-fabbed chip, rather than go through the whole process of manufacturing them.

The chips because they are stacked in 3-D space take up very little wafer space and thus, as my understanding on ROM chips are concerned, costs very little because the cost of ROM manufacturing is based on how many chips you can cut per piece of wafer. smaller chips means higher yields per wafer and your unit costs go down. These chips also will hold 128 MB initially, with higher sized chips to come. They won't come close to UMD capacities though.

You can see the size differential easily. The GBA roms are not much smaller than the plastic housing. There's just enough space to sneak in a battery or an EEPROM. Compare this to the stamp sized DS cartridges which again, also has an EEPROM (which is apparently now a standard feaure for all DS cartridges).

 

[Kutaragi Hirai]

Mmm... after 3 years from now:

DS = 59.999.999 units.
PSP= 60.000.000 units....

DRAW

 

[Sho Nuff]

I would write an intelligent reply, but I'm too busy catching up on episodes of "Lost" and "House MD" on my PSP! OHHHH

 

[GDGF]

I would write an intelligent reply, but I'm too busy catching up on episodes of "Lost" and "House MD" on my PSP! OHHHH

If the PSP had ended up costing what it was supposed to cost, I could have made that joke and it would have been funny