Kabuki Waq
Member
djkimothy said:
you sir are only blind if you dont buy it.
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Hi-Def Media Lovefest: The war is over and we can all go home.
- Thread starter HyperionX
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you sir are only blind if you dont buy it.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Why is it when a guy who is on the MS/Toshiba payroll makes a vague argument about HD-DVD winning this war, it's news, but when a neutral party explains how he's come to a pro-BluRay position with a lot of well reasoned arguments, it merits a :lol?
soundwave05
Member
Kolgar said:
The higher price of HD/BR discs is a turn off even to people who own the hardware.
I have a PS3 and by extension of that a Blu-Ray player. I planned on buying a bunch of Blu-Ray movies, but as of now I only have about 2 or 3.
Everytime I go to buy a Blu-Ray disc, I always have to ask myself "do I really want this movie in HD enough to spend an extra $10 on it?". In most cases the answer comes out to "no".
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
rubso: The guy I'm referrign to is a paid marketing agent. He's more trustworthy than Bill Hunt? You'd think so, from some replies here.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
soundwave05 said:
Yeah. I do buy new releases in HD is a I can, but that keeps me from buying a lot of older stuff.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
rubso said:
So would I. But I sure as hell wouldn't trust such a person's opinion, which was my point.
Rob Enderle, paid marketing agent for MS and Toshiba (and presumably, Sony in the past): "HD-DVD is sure to win" via vague arguments -> 5 pages of pro-HD-DVD speculation in this thread
Bill Hunt, independenent tech journalist: "BluRay will win, if either does" follwed by a thorough and well-reasoned argument -> get's :lols in this thread
The death of reason indeed.
Well, I personally don't put much stock in what Bill Hunt says. As far as him being neutral, I :lol heartily.
His article contains valid points, sure, but it's still not the complete picture. For example, he says Toshiba's only advantage is inexpensive hardware. Is it really? The Tosh players have won many awards from reputable AV mags and websites for their excellent performance; moreso than any of the Blu players. Doesn't low price + exceptional performance = great value? Isn't that what consumers are looking for?
That value is why the top three HD players on Amazon are all HD DVD models. I'm still not convinced that BD can win until its standalone players start selling a lot better than they are. I just don't think a game console can win a format war. It can help; we've seen that. For without PS3, BD would already be dead. But those standalones have to start taking off.
And they won't until they hit affordable price points. That's what Toshiba's trying to do. Does it screw them with CE support? Possibly. But they're in a fight to the death with Sony and BD, and price is the one weapon in their "all or nothing" box that might just win it for them in the end. If they can build a big enough install base with affordable prices, they may get to a point where a BD studio can ignore HD DVD no longer.
Seems to me you can have all the studio support in the world, but if your players still cost $500-600, the mass market just isn't interested.
Anyway, I don't claim to know what will happen. But I've seen enough "Blu Bluster" to know it when I see it.
His article contains valid points, sure, but it's still not the complete picture. For example, he says Toshiba's only advantage is inexpensive hardware. Is it really? The Tosh players have won many awards from reputable AV mags and websites for their excellent performance; moreso than any of the Blu players. Doesn't low price + exceptional performance = great value? Isn't that what consumers are looking for?
That value is why the top three HD players on Amazon are all HD DVD models. I'm still not convinced that BD can win until its standalone players start selling a lot better than they are. I just don't think a game console can win a format war. It can help; we've seen that. For without PS3, BD would already be dead. But those standalones have to start taking off.
And they won't until they hit affordable price points. That's what Toshiba's trying to do. Does it screw them with CE support? Possibly. But they're in a fight to the death with Sony and BD, and price is the one weapon in their "all or nothing" box that might just win it for them in the end. If they can build a big enough install base with affordable prices, they may get to a point where a BD studio can ignore HD DVD no longer.
Seems to me you can have all the studio support in the world, but if your players still cost $500-600, the mass market just isn't interested.
Anyway, I don't claim to know what will happen. But I've seen enough "Blu Bluster" to know it when I see it.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Kolgar said:
I stopped reading right there.
When you have to back up your argument with Amazon sales, you know something is wrong.
Seriously, I thought we were past using Amazon sales information as fact :lol
Kolgar said:
While there is some merit to your point, there are two problems with it.
1) The PS3 actually has also won some awards as a BluRay device, including a product of the year award.
2) As Hunt alluded to, the CE support behind BluRay should not be overlooked. To assume that no one will bring similarly quality standalone BluRay players is kind of ridiculous ... from pretty much any perspective.
That is a pretty gross oversimplification isn't it? Things like studio support are obviously pretty important to people deciding which format to pick.
If you look at actual units sold ... it's not like they are selling to the mainstream. Amazon is selling at really cheap prices, so early adopters who aren't all that scared about whether the format eventually lives or dies are simply choosing to buy it from there.
I agree that BluRay standalone players will eventually have to sell to the mass-market for it to really take off ... However, I think it is possible for a console to win the format war, as that doesn't mean the winning format actually 'lives'. In reality, the studios and CE companies don't want a format war. If PS3 helps BluRay take a sizable lead in sales ... it is possible that HD DVD support will drop off.
In other words, BluRay could win the format war ... but still end up a niche product.
Well, this is strictly a what if ... we simply don't know which strategy will end up winning out.
That said, so far the price difference does not seem to be helping HD DVD. The sales delta has been fairly consistent this year.
And it seems to me, that at $300 and with limited studio support ... the mass market just isn't interested either.
Suikoguy said:
I know - that's got to be a bitter pill for you to swallow.
Back to the article, I have to chuckle when Bill says this:
Besides the VC-1 codec, MS's big reason for backing HD DVD is to counter Sony and Blu-ray. Put the squeeze on their competitor on as many fronts as possible. Meanwhile, they're beavering away on their downloadable movie service.
So I don't think MS is really concerned about the next-gen movie format war. Certainly not enough to ever announce a Blu-ray add-on drive for 360, even if BD were to win the war definitively tomorrow.
What I'm getting at is that I find the statement dumb, and it certainly doesn't do much for the credibility of Mr. Hunt's "professional" analyses.
Onix, I agree with pretty much all your points. I appreciate your thoughtfulness; you come across as a bit more level-headed than Mr. Hunt. :lol
That's what makes this whole format war so interesting. There's validity to both approaches and a certain unpredictability to these things that means it could go either way - or neither way - despite these companies' best efforts.
It's almost as fun to watch as the movies themselves!
That's what makes this whole format war so interesting. There's validity to both approaches and a certain unpredictability to these things that means it could go either way - or neither way - despite these companies' best efforts.
It's almost as fun to watch as the movies themselves!
Kolgar said:
Not really ... see my post above. Amazon sales charts have been gone over many times in this thread.
You are forgetting iHD.
Regardless, one thing many people are overlooking is the future of the X-box. As has been discussed many times, one of MS's main reasons for entering the console market is the entire living room media center war against Sony. That is where the real battle lies.
Assuming MS releases another console in the future (one would assume this is the case) ... the question becomes, what media will it use? The reality is, a true downloadable-only console just ain't happening next-gen. Another reality is that DVD obviously ain't gonna be enough. If an argument can be made that DVD is a bottle-neck to devs this gen, then next-gen it would obviously be crippling.
It isn't a difficult stretch to assume MS would really rather not have to use a Sony drive in its next gen console. For that reason, MS would certainly like to see HD DVD win. If that doesn't happen however ... and BluRay comes out on top ... it is quite doubtful MS would not include a BD drive next gen.
As to an add-on for 360 this gen? ... while possible, A LOT of things would have to fall into perfect alignment. I personally doubt it.
A little OT from all the sales trash talking going on but I had a question:
Equilibrium is I believe available on HD-DVD in Japan. I haven't seen a Bluray version out, so I assume it's not.
However in North America, this title is pre-2005 Dimension Films, which I believe is still Disney property so it would (at this point) be a Bluray movie should it come out (not that I'm holding my breath for this title), correct?
Sold the DVD to a coworker and just wanted to make sure :lol
m
Equilibrium is I believe available on HD-DVD in Japan. I haven't seen a Bluray version out, so I assume it's not.
However in North America, this title is pre-2005 Dimension Films, which I believe is still Disney property so it would (at this point) be a Bluray movie should it come out (not that I'm holding my breath for this title), correct?
Sold the DVD to a coworker and just wanted to make sure :lol
m
DarkJediKnight
Member
Mrbob said:
It will depend on whether or not Sony keeps 60gb as standard or replaces it with the 80gb. If 60gb is still there, I expect it to be $449.99 and 80gb for $499.99. $150 price drop on the 60gb.
Karma Kramer
Banned
Just picked up the Fountain on HDDVD..
Christopher
Member
You'll never guess what I found guys when I was looking for my god damn headset to talk in WarHawk - my blu-ray booklet!!
Are the pirates movies covered under the 10 dollar rebates?
Are the pirates movies covered under the 10 dollar rebates?
ChrisJames
Member
Haven't posted in here in a while... piss poor showing by HD DVD last week. The Matrix sales are definitely on the low side, but considering the quality of Revolutions and how much the box set costs, it's not that surprising.
I think Bill Hunt is crazy to say that either Blu-Ray wins or both formats fail. That's bullshit, pure and simple. HD DVD can win, especially if those Wal-Mart rumors prove to be true and when the players are down to $199. I'm not saying HD DVD will win, but it's not impossible; crazier things have happened. Universal's own higher-ups have all ready said that it will all come down to the 4th Quarter of this year, so I highly doubt they are surprised by the low sales right now...
I picked up 40 Year Old Virgin yesterday, despite mixed reviews on the picture quality, and I was pretty impressed overall. It's not a visual tour de force, but it's definitely a huge upgrade over DVD and I'm very happy with my purchase. Also, this may be one of the few movies where the "unrated" scenes are actually worth a shit. I found them to be pretty funny and even added to the backstory a little bit. I would definitely recommend it to any HD DVD owners sitting on the fence.
Finally, the Matrix trilogy looks and sounds amazing, but I can see how the Pirates movies would look better (simply because of the setting of those movies).
I think Bill Hunt is crazy to say that either Blu-Ray wins or both formats fail. That's bullshit, pure and simple. HD DVD can win, especially if those Wal-Mart rumors prove to be true and when the players are down to $199. I'm not saying HD DVD will win, but it's not impossible; crazier things have happened. Universal's own higher-ups have all ready said that it will all come down to the 4th Quarter of this year, so I highly doubt they are surprised by the low sales right now...
I picked up 40 Year Old Virgin yesterday, despite mixed reviews on the picture quality, and I was pretty impressed overall. It's not a visual tour de force, but it's definitely a huge upgrade over DVD and I'm very happy with my purchase. Also, this may be one of the few movies where the "unrated" scenes are actually worth a shit. I found them to be pretty funny and even added to the backstory a little bit. I would definitely recommend it to any HD DVD owners sitting on the fence.
Finally, the Matrix trilogy looks and sounds amazing, but I can see how the Pirates movies would look better (simply because of the setting of those movies).
The Main Event
Member
http://www.tvpredictions.com/whip060207.htm
Nothing new about some of his facts/opinion, except about the sales of Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima. Didn't know they were this low.
One have to wonder when or if the HD optical discs will be able to hit 100 000 discs per release someday...
Nothing new about some of his facts/opinion, except about the sales of Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima. Didn't know they were this low.
One have to wonder when or if the HD optical discs will be able to hit 100 000 discs per release someday...
Manmademan
Member
Oni Jazar said:
CR was a new release at the time. Both versions of pirates were re-releases- most who bought them already owned a copy on DVD.
I'd expect films new to blu-ray/DVD like Spidey 3, and Pirates 3 to do bigger numbers.
You better have some patience if you are into hi def movies, because it is going to take a couple years to start supplanting DVD.
I don't know why all these analysts and predictors make these grand proclamations (especially what seems on a weekly basis) about the future of the format, when they should know that it is going to take time. It took DVD a couple years to take off, and it'll probably take these hi def formats a little longer.
Of course, this brings in the babble talk about digital downloads but that will be a pipe dream for about another 10 years. Broadband isn't where it needs to be. Neither is storage capacity.
I don't know why all these analysts and predictors make these grand proclamations (especially what seems on a weekly basis) about the future of the format, when they should know that it is going to take time. It took DVD a couple years to take off, and it'll probably take these hi def formats a little longer.
Of course, this brings in the babble talk about digital downloads but that will be a pipe dream for about another 10 years. Broadband isn't where it needs to be. Neither is storage capacity.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Manmademan said:
Yep. And come down guys damn. They are both new formats. We know that it will be a blu-ray disc that makes it to 100,000 out the gate first. Which one is the question and when will it happen?
My guess is it might be Spidey 3.
The Main Event said:
That article provides a lot of insight, but it fails to mention one thing. If you took the sales of Blu-Ray and HD DVD out of context and just looked at them as numbers, then no they don't sell all that great. However, there are millions upon millions of DVD players out there. There's not as many Blu-Ray or HD DVD players out there. The price and the format war are keeping a lot of people away from either format. If there were one format, sales would improve drastically. Not DVD-level, but they'd start getting a lot better.
ChrisJames said:
There is one fly in the Hardware pricing ointment. Current HDDVD pricing is down to Toshiba being really aggressive.
Future Hardware price cutting (and the Walmart rumoured player - still a rumour BTW) will rely on forthcoming SoC development from the likes of Broadcom. These chips do bluray decoding just as well as HDDVD, so cost savings are valid for both sides. This will allow manufacturers to greatly simplify the costs of their players. Plus bluray/HDDVD drive prices will be plumetting (well at least the bluray ones will after the volume of PS3s that have been produced)
so IMO any genuine pricepoint that HD-DVD can acheive when SoC gets rolling can be met (at least approximately) by bluray.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Kolgar said:
I still can't figure out why Wal-Mart would side with one player. If anything they should go with the one that's selling the highest at the moment IF they HAD to chose.
Crayon Shinchan
Aquafina Fanboy
Kolgar said:
HD-DVD fanboys have been holding Walmart over us like the sword of damocles. But they haven't really justified why Walmart would choose one format over the other; if the work done by chinese manufacturers brings parity to both HD-DVD and Bluray players, then where's the advantage?
TAJ
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Mrbob said:
It SHOULD be a pipe dream for another 10 years, but I think it will be a player much sooner. Their solution to the bandwidth problem will be shitty (compared to these HD disc formats) quality.
Manmademan
Member
Crayon Shinchan said:
It also ignores the obvious fact that margins are a lot higher on the software than the hardware, especially on the cheaper players.
With the way Blu ray is currently pummeling HD-DVD in software sales, if Walmart has to pick a side, it's not likely it'll be HD-DVD
mckmas8808 said:
Doesn't the Wal-Mart model emphasize sales volume? Inexpensive products at huge volumes. That is, they pick the stuff they can sell at a great value, and their scope and scale allows gynormous volume. Wal-Mart rakes in the cash.
Which HD format looks to be ready for primetime, pricewise, by holiday 2007?
Makes sense to me.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Kolgar said:
Why wouldn't they just not choose right now?
Why pick HD-DVD when so far this year they are only pulling in 32% of the sofware sales nationally?
Crayon Shinchan said:
Parity? I don't know about parity. If Chinese tech enables cost reductions, then I imagine both formats will drop in price, but BD tech is not identical to HD tech. I understand it's inherently more expensive. So I'm further guessing that HD will retain a price advantage in hardware.
I also see an advantage in that HD DVD's spec has been finalized and studios are able to release their movies with the features they want, right now. Isn't Sony's upcoming $499 or $599 player going to lack compatibility with the BD-J spec that's coming later this year? I don't know for sure, but this is what I've heard, so please correct me if I am wrong. Is this good or bad for consumers? Is a new, $500 player that doesn't support soon-to-be-released features a good value, or a bad one?
As for why Wally World might choose one format over the other, see my reply to Mckmas. I'm no expert, but I would think sales volume might have something to do with it. Not to mention the fact that they likely don't want to subject their customers to a format war. Maybe they believe they'll just decide the thing for them.
Crayon Shinchan
Aquafina Fanboy
Kolgar said:
Oh? Leaving Toshiba's aggressive subsidy aside, why is it inherently more expensive?
What primary components are causing the extra expense? If the chipset is same/similar and the laser the same/similar... then what else is there left apart from the spit and hope of fanboys?
Zombie James
Banned
Wasn't it just a few weeks ago I read somewhere that Blu-ray and HD-DVD adoption is happening quicker than DVD was at this point in it's lifespan?
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