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[Hugare]

Hey everyone

After OpenAI's presentation of GPT4-o yesterday, I was both amazed and pretty scared. When I imagine how society will be years from now, it doesnt seem like it will change for the "better".

I'm an economist, one of the professions that according to the graphic below, wont be taken over by AI so soon.

But this graphic was made before yesterday's presentation. And honestly, after what I saw ... I dont think it would take too long as presumed.

Employment will take a nosedive. Its a fact. Billions of people will eventually loose their jobs. So how are we going to solve this problem?

Some people are talking about UBI (Universal Basic Income). But man, where do I even begin with this. It's a whole can of worms. It may end up working in some places, but others, specially with corrupt governments, would be apocalyptic.

So GAF, I would like to hear your thoughts about the future.

Sorry if there was a thread about this topic already, but I didnt find one

EDIT: For those that havent seen yesterday's presentation, here are some of the demos:

 

[West Texas CEO]

 

[DKPOWPOW]

I work in a craft that’s been honed for thousands of years and never perfected. A robot could do my job, but it would likely end in misery for them. All they would do is continue to fail as it slowly corrupts their source code to the point where they banish themselves to the vestibule.

As for society, they are my customers. Bad times, good times, it doesn’t matter. I have already won.

 

[ThatStupidLion]

I think itll create a larger and larger separation between upper class and middle class.

also, itll force people to retreat back to smaller more remote communities. People will begin to rely on each other more. Physical hands on trade skills will gain value. People will barter more. People will further rot their brains consuming content.

 

[IDKFA]

I reject AI if it results in mass unemployment.

 

[YCoCg]

Things will get worse for people except for the top CEOs, people will just become a number to show as many ads to and if you can't buy the stuff they're selling well you may as well not exist.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

That's an extreme complex question to answer for a myriad of reasons. Imo reasons we're not aware of yet. Interesting question nonetheless.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

A lot of unemployment in service based jobs and artistic too.

 

[YCoCg]

A lot of unemployment in service based jobs and artistic too.

And people will cheer it on as they slurp down the latest AI fad videos (insert show) as a 1950s advert.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

It'll have it's impact on all us as a soul operating a biological vessel to be able to currently experience our lives in society in many ways.



It'll, eventually, have it's social, technical, political, law enforcement, etc impact.

It's ultimate usability is so easy and hence practical to implement in many many facets in which we as a collective have to transition with...

Quote me: the first 2 waves are to make life easy, more comfortable..

3.. Well...

 

[RiccochetJ]

I'm interested to see if one day all these companies will suddenly discover that there's no one able to buy their products and services because they laid everyone off.

 

[Mobilemofo]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. We will end up with a combination of the minority report and demolition man style authority style government.

 

[Hudo]

I want this:

 

[BennyBlanco]

 

[Synless]

How is anything related to programming not on that list?

 

[NecrosaroIII]

My wife is an accountant, and I work at a call center.

We're so fucked.

 

[YCoCg]

How is anything related to programming not on that list?

You know why, it's peak fuck you got mine, the people working on the AI aren't going to make it good at their jobs!

 

[jason10mm]

If "recreational therapist" is code for "prostitute" then I got baaaaaad knews for them once a half decent sex bot or vr girlfriend comes out

But hopefully AI is directed to assist in dangerous jobs like construction as well as tedious observation tasks like air traffic control or watching traffic, where they can facilitate the info loop for s human to make the actual decisions. Basically like star trek, where the human asks the AI for all the info but the AI has little to no actual autonomy.

 

[GHG]

You know why, it's peak fuck you got mine, the people working on the AI aren't going to make it good at their jobs!

It won't be up to them, it's up to the corporations that employ them.

 

[midnightAI]

Porn, lots of (fake) porn

 

[diffusionx]

I was way more pessimistic about the future of humanity when the OpenGPT chatbot hit the scene than I am now. It's obvious this is just a machine and software code. It can't think. It can't create. It can't draw. it can't make music. It has no soul. It can't break any new ground. All it can do is repurpose what is fed into it the way the programmers decide to structure it. It may eliminate some drudgery, like "ChatGPT, render me a gruff bald space marine" but that means the person can focus on other things. I mean, how long did it take before people were able to spot what ChatGPT answers looked like, or spot AI drawings?

Look at a game like Animal Well. AI can't do that and can NEVER do that.

My wife is an accountant, and I work at a call center.

We're so fucked.

I was reading ~10 years ago about the death of the law profession because robots were going to eliminate the entry level jobs like doc review. The websites I read were like, yes, this profession is going to collapse, most law schools will close, robots are going to take huge numbers of jobs, firms will have no incentive to hire new people when a robot can do the work. Yet somehow there are more lawyers today than there were back then and the profession continues to grow (for better or worse). Realistically, nobody with a 1040 is going to trust their taxes to some AI. It's just not going to happen. I think that jobs like accountants are going to basically use the AI as super-competent personal assistants. Similar to how accountants got way more productive after spreadsheet software was introduced.

As for call centers, I read an article the other day about how a company's chatbot offered a customer something the company actually didn't offer, and they have to honor it. So, what happens when people figure out how to manipulate the United Airlines or Hilton customer service bot or whatever? Free flights, free hotels, etc.? These shits are retarded.

 

[Meicyn]

I reject AI if it results in mass unemployment.

The problem is that it’s on the way, and corporations could give two shits about employment beyond key decision makers and the minimum viable staff needed to keep automation going.

We’ve been exploring the consequences of man vs machine for decades, and we are still not prepared for what is to come. We have geriatrics running government who are more concerned with distractions like what bathrooms transgender folks are using and banning lab grown meat, rather than addressing runaway housing costs, insurance prices being out of control in key states, the insane gouging of food prices, and so forth. Stock market prices are being used as rationale for “the economy is fine lmao” while debt is skyrocketing because wages are low and folks are living paycheck to paycheck with little to no ability to deal with emergencies, medical or otherwise. When you’re a minimum wage slave and your daughter is dying, you take whatever debt you have to in order to ensure she survives.

AI will be a net positive in the long run, no doubt in my mind. Faster movement towards cures for cancer, better energy storage tech, resolving problems like how to make net positive fusion power viable, the list goes on. The problem is that society will have to adapt, and the interim period is going to lead to so many folks being fucked over and left behind. Our Senators live comfortable lives due to self-enrichment, so they’ll dawdle as they always have,

 

[YCoCg]

It won't be up to them, it's up to the corporations that employ them.

"I'm sorry Mr. CEO but no matter how much we try we can't get the AI to improve itself and programming without failing badly, it's like a human trying to do major internal surgery on themselves, so we have to be here."

 

[GHG]

"I'm sorry Mr. CEO but no matter how much we try we can't get the AI to improve itself and programming without failing badly, it's like a human trying to do major internal surgery on themselves, so we have to be here."

That all falls apart when the CEO themselves can ask the AI the right questions.

 

[diffusionx]

The problem is that it’s on the way, and corporations could give two shits about employment beyond key decision makers and the minimum viable staff needed to keep automation going.

We’ve been exploring the consequences of man vs machine for decades, and we are still not prepared for what is to come. We have geriatrics running government who are more concerned with distractions like what bathrooms transgender folks are using and banning lab grown meat, rather than addressing runaway housing costs, insurance prices being out of control in key states, the insane gouging of food prices, and so forth. Stock market prices are being used as rationale for “the economy is fine lmao” while debt is skyrocketing because wages are low and folks are living paycheck to paycheck with little to no ability to deal with emergencies, medical or otherwise. When you’re a minimum wage slave and your daughter is dying, you take whatever debt you have to in order to ensure she survives.

AI will be a net positive in the long run, no doubt in my mind. Faster movement towards cures for cancer, better energy storage tech, resolving problems like how to make net positive fusion power viable, the list goes on. The problem is that society will have to adapt, and the interim period is going to lead to so many folks being fucked over and left behind. Our Senators live comfortable lives due to self-enrichment, so they’ll dawdle as they always have,

Yes, and these geriatrics are the ones telling the companies what to code into their AI. Look at the other AI thread from today - AI is basically now a stock NYC/SF shitlib in computer form. The idea that we are going to have some neutral, objective, technocratic AI to run our government like Plato's philosopher-king is enticing, but a total flight of fancy. It's just not going to happen.

 

[March Climber]

I want this:

How old are you? Depending on your answer I'll let you know if it's humanly possible to live that long.

 

[BadBurger]

Personally, I think AI will have about the same impact as crypto or NFT's, but it may be useful for rote coding work in the future.

I've seen a lot of great claims about how this LLM or that LLM can do the work of coders, and the absolutely dreck this AI is churning out is like worse than what a 18 year old freshman at a community college could write. It is nowhere near the levels these tech bros are claiming it is as they try to sell their companies to the highest bidder.

 

[Hudo]

How old are you? Depending on your answer I'll let you know if it's humanly possible to live that long.

Let's say that I fall into the time span of Millenials, just so. To old to be a Zoomer. I know that we will get there from a software point of view. I am asking more from a hardware/physics point of view, since that's not my forté. Specifically, I know jack shit about holographic/projection technology.

 

[Tams]

Well, considering getting a dentiswhere I live, even if you have plenty of money, is like finding gold dust as it is... maybe I should retrain as one...

 

[Hugare]

Personally, I think AI will have about the same impact as crypto or NFT's, but it may be useful for rote coding work in the future.

I've seen a lot of great claims about how this LLM or that LLM can do the work of coders, and the absolutely dreck this AI is churning out is like worse than what a 18 year old freshman at a community college could write. It is nowhere near the levels these tech bros are claiming it is as they try to sell their companies to the highest bidder.

I think you are understimating it by comparing it to crypto or NFT. It will be as big as the internet, probably more.

This is a segment from yesterday's presentation:



It's basically a personal teacher. Can you imagine the impact for education? How many teachers will loose their jobs when this becomes popular?

And it will evolve much, much more in the following months/years

I was way more pessimistic about the future of humanity when the OpenGPT chatbot hit the scene than I am now. It's obvious this is just a machine and software code. It can't think. It can't create. It can't draw. it can't make music. It has no soul. It can't break any new ground. All it can do is repurpose what is fed into it the way the programmers decide to structure it. It may eliminate some drudgery, like "ChatGPT, render me a gruff bald space marine" but that means the person can focus on other things. I mean, how long did it take before people were able to spot what ChatGPT answers looked like, or spot AI drawings?

Look at a game like Animal Well. AI can't do that and can NEVER do that.


I was reading ~10 years ago about the death of the law profession because robots were going to eliminate the entry level jobs like doc review. The websites I read were like, yes, this profession is going to collapse, most law schools will close, robots are going to take huge numbers of jobs, firms will have no incentive to hire new people when a robot can do the work. Yet somehow there are more lawyers today than there were back then and the profession continues to grow (for better or worse). Realistically, nobody with a 1040 is going to trust their taxes to some AI. It's just not going to happen. I think that jobs like accountants are going to basically use the AI as super-competent personal assistants. Similar to how accountants got way more productive after spreadsheet software was introduced.

As for call centers, I read an article the other day about how a company's chatbot offered a customer something the company actually didn't offer, and they have to honor it. So, what happens when people figure out how to manipulate the United Airlines or Hilton customer service bot or whatever? Free flights, free hotels, etc.? These shits are retarded.

They are already using AI to evolve AI

It may not create stuff like games, movies and etc., but how many professions are dependant on logic only? The majority of them

Most professions arent about creating something, but coming up with the right answer for some problem. And they will be able to do it better and faster than you. Even predicting the problem.

And your examples of AI coming up with wrong sollutions: give it time. It's evolving in an exponential rate.

But "these shits" arent retarded already, at all.

I think itll create a larger and larger separation between upper class and middle class.

also, itll force people to retreat back to smaller more remote communities. People will begin to rely on each other more. Physical hands on trade skills will gain value. People will barter more. People will further rot their brains consuming content.

It will definitely lead to a larger separation of classes

And people are dreaming about Basic Universal Income lol

Those people are clueless. Capitalism doesnt work like that. Human nature doesnt work like that.

 

[Atrus]

I think it’s great. It will bring more efficiencies for society at the cost of phasing out some jobs.

I work in finance, one of the easiest to phase out, and have no concerns that would fall in the 20-25 years of career I have left.

You need both technology and a generational aptitude to use it effectively or you’ll just get a bunch of boomers who need your help because they’ve flipped their desktop upside down.

 

[Hugare]

I think it’s great. It will bring more efficiencies for society at the cost of phasing out some jobs.

I work in finance, one of the easiest to phase out, and have no concerns that would fall in the 20-25 years of career I have left.

You need both technology and a generational aptitude to use it effectively or you’ll just get a bunch of boomers who need your help because they’ve flipped their desktop upside down.

"Some jobs" is an understatement

I also work in finance. Use ChatGPT daily.

My team has 10 people today. I believe that in time, AI can trim it down to 3-4.

Now imagine every finance team in the world being reduced by 50%. And that's only in finance.

 

[IDKFA]

The problem is that it’s on the way, and corporations could give two shits about employment beyond key decision makers and the minimum viable staff needed to keep automation going.

I'm optimistic we won't have that in the UK. People complain about the unions here, but the unions are the reason we have some of the best workers rights in the world. I don't think they'd roll over and let masses of people go unemployed. I hope not anyway.

We’ve been exploring the consequences of man vs machine for decades, and we are still not prepared for what is to come. We have geriatrics running government who are more concerned with distractions like what bathrooms transgender folks are using and banning lab grown meat, rather than addressing runaway housing costs, insurance prices being out of control in key states, the insane gouging of food prices, and so forth. Stock market prices are being used as rationale for “the economy is fine lmao” while debt is skyrocketing because wages are low and folks are living paycheck to paycheck with little to no ability to deal with emergencies, medical or otherwise.

I agree with this and would say this is also an issue in the UK. The government hasn't taken AI seriously and it really needs to. Maybe the next government (Which will be Labour) will take it seriously and look into how this can stop more people drifting into poverty.

When you’re a minimum wage slave and your daughter is dying, you take whatever debt you have to in order to ensure she survives.

I can never understand this dilemma as we have a national health service. I truly feel sorry for people in the US who can't afford medical care and/or have to go into masses of debt. I can't wrap my head around somebody having to pay tens of thousands to save their life or the life of a loved one.

AI will be a net positive in the long run, no doubt in my mind. Faster movement towards cures for cancer, better energy storage tech, resolving problems like how to make net positive fusion power viable, the list goes on. The problem is that society will have to adapt, and the interim period is going to lead to so many folks being fucked over and left behind. Our Senators live comfortable lives due to self-enrichment, so they’ll dawdle as they always have,

I also agree AI will benefit us in medical science, engineering physics etc. That I can handle, but I want it to complement humanity, not make us obsolete. I want to see a balance, but I'm not convinced we'll see it.

 

[JimmyRustler]

Meh, I’m super excited for the future - and I say this as someone who does a job that can and probably will be replaced by an AI sooner or later.

I feel like I should be more worried but for some reason I am not. I’m pretty sure that while a lot of jobs will be obsolete, others will be created. Maybe some we cannot even imagine thus far.

We survived the Industrial Revolution, we’ll survive this too. I just don’t see mass unemployment coming while a handful of rich people are rolling in money.

Next 5-10 years should be neat. We’ll see.

 

[SminkyPinky]

I've been quite obsessed with AI for a while now. I believe it will completely replace us as a species eventually. It will nudge us from the top spot as the most powerful species on the planet. At first, I think it will seperate humans from each other even more than we are now - I mean classess, the rich and the non-rich. The so-called elites will hold on for a while but ultimately the AI will completely take over.

I love playing with AI...writing programs using it speeds up getting ideas to reality like nothing ever before. I have lots of ideas but it's very difficult 'getting the ball rolling' and with AI, you're up and running very quickly. Writing program that utilise AI is also really good fun! Enjoy it while you can I say...because eventually humanity is doomed.

 

[Grildon Tundy]

AI will displace a LOT of people in the job market, leading to a period of dissent and lots of people going broke. Eventually, the market will figure out that people need to be making money to spend money and keep the economy going, and then it will be corrected for (UBI or some other solution I'm not smart enough to think of.)

 

[Atrus]

"Some jobs" is an understatement

I also work in finance. Use ChatGPT daily.

My team has 10 people today. I believe that in time, AI can trim it down to 3-4.

Now imagine every finance team in the world being reduced by 50%. And that's only in finance.

In the end there will be fewer jobs for everyone once AI and automation hit their stride down the road but the real solution to that is to not have 8 billion plus people looking for work.

 

[YCoCg]

. I just don’t see mass unemployment coming while a handful of rich people are rolling in money.

Have you even looked at most countries lately?

 

[SminkyPinky]

Personally, I think AI will have about the same impact as crypto or NFT's, but it may be useful for rote coding work in the future.

I've seen a lot of great claims about how this LLM or that LLM can do the work of coders, and the absolutely dreck this AI is churning out is like worse than what a 18 year old freshman at a community college could write. It is nowhere near the levels these tech bros are claiming it is as they try to sell their companies to the highest bidder.

Maybe other people are just better than myself...but I think it helps with coding a helluvalot...and I've been programming for...a few decades. As I say, maybe I'm just a bit stupid...or lazy...

 

[Lord Panda]

To counter AI/AGI societal disruption, in a less disparate and imperfect world, governments will hopefully implement social reform such as universal basic income, and seriously go after corporate tax evaders and tax havens in a big way. Governments will collectively band together and co-ordinate their taxing powers against the ultra wealthy as a top priority.

Similar to current DEI quota mandates, there will be a push for all businesses to have a set human labour percentage as well.

Programming/IT should definitely on that list of industries that will face the hammer - and as I mentioned in the other 4o thread, I'm currently in IT and considering picking up a trade or something.

 

[Hugare]

Meh, I’m super excited for the future - and I say this as someone who does a job that can and probably will be replaced by an AI sooner or later.

I feel like I should be more worried but for some reason I am not. I’m pretty sure that while a lot of jobs will be obsolete, others will be created. Maybe some we cannot even imagine thus far.

We survived the Industrial Revolution, we’ll survive this too. I just don’t see mass unemployment coming while a handful of rich people are rolling in money.

Next 5-10 years should be neat. We’ll see.

I ... cant understand this rationale. Be worried, dude.

Jobs will be created, sure. And you and billions of other people will be rushing to learn the skills necessary for them. Maybe requiring a new graduation, while you are older, and have already spent the majority of your life studying and paying for your intelectual formation that will be as useful to you now as nothing. Fun stuff.

In the end there will be fewer jobs for everyone once AI and automation hit their stride down the road but the real solution to that is to not have 8 billion plus people looking for work.

But how do you solve this problem of 8 billion people not looking for work?

UBI? But would it be enough? Would the government have enough money for it to be sustainable? Would people be satisfied by the UBI? Consumption would decline like crazy, how would that reflect on the economy?

Those are complex questions that we should be trying to answer before shit hit the fan, not after

To counter AI/AGI societal disruption, in a less disparate and imperfect world, governments will hopefully implement social reform such as universal basic income, and seriously go after corporate tax evaders and tax havens in a big way. Governments will collectively band together and co-ordinate their taxing powers against the ultra wealthy as a top priority.

Similar to current DEI quota mandates, there will be a push for all businesses to have a set human labour percentage as well.

Programming/IT should definitely on that list of industries that will face the hammer - and as I mentioned in the other 4o thread, I'm currently in IT and considering picking up a trade or something.

The bold part is just perfect. That's something that I was also thinking about (that would also be awesome for today's society, but would they do it? Yeah, right)

The problem is, I doubt that nations would be united for something like this. One will always try to stay on top of the other.

My girlfriend has just started her IT graduation after droping dentistry college ... I feel so fucking bad for her ...

Trying to keep her motivated as much as I can

 

[SminkyPinky]

I ... cant understand this rationale. Be worried, dude.

Jobs will be created, sure. And you and billions of other people will be rushing to learn the skills necessary for them. Maybe requiring a new graduation, while you are older, and have already spent the majority of your life studying and paying for your intelectual formation that will be as useful to you now as nothing. Fun stuff.


But how do you solve this problem of 8 billion people not looking for work?

UBI? But would it be enough? Would the government have enough money for it to be sustainable? Would people be satisfied by the UBI? Consumption would decline like crazy, how would that reflect on the economy?

Those are complex questions that we should be trying to answer before shit hit the fan, not after

Isn't that just the same argument as I imagine some people said about machinery used in farming and later, automation? More machines means less people needed but the same amount of work is being done. Generally, we work so we can eat. UBI is wierd though - if we have machinery and AI doing all the work, what exactly is the point in money?

 

[CGNoire]

The job loses aside....

Absolute Decimation of our Dopamine Systems.
Massive increase in Suicide Rates.
Depression Levels that are Unimagineable for the ones still carrying on.
Increased Isolation and rise of AI Sexbots and AI Porn will lead to 99% of the population being lonely Virgins.

Getting AI Movie, Games at the drop of a Prompt will make us Devalue Everythng and Lead Us to not having anything left over to Escape our AI Dystopia with.

Those who are Optomistic about AI Games and AI movies are Fools.

 

[Hugare]

Isn't that just the same argument as I imagine some people said about machinery used in farming and later, automation? More machines means less people needed but the same amount of work is being done. Generally, we work so we can eat. UBI is wierd though - if we have machinery and AI doing all the work, what exactly is the point in money?

We can't find all the answers in the past. AI can be much more disruptive than past experiences. It has the potential of being.

"More machines means less people needed but the same amount of work is being done". Yeah, by machines. So why would you be useful? I guess I didnt understand your point here.

Money will still be important. Who will pay for the machines? Even if its just the government, it would still have to make business with other countries, needing money.

It's also a way of controlling consumption

 

[newtypepilot]

it'll have the same impact as crypto. General public will continue to have misunderstanding of it because people keep mislabeling it.

Machine learning will have it uses because its good for doing 80% of the work with only 20% of the resources. It's good for tedious tasks but at the end of the day it's just a sophisticated input/output tool. It doesn't understand context. And as google has so wonderfully demonstrated, it can be programmed to have biases as well.

 

[YCoCg]

The job loses aside....

Absolute Decimation of our Dopamine Systems.
Massive increase in Suicide Rates.
Depression Levels that are Unimagineable for the ones still carrying on.
Increased Insolation and rise of AI Sexbots and AI Porn will lead to 99% of the population being lonely Vigins.

Getting AI Movie, Games at the drop of a Prompt will make us Devalue Everythng and Lead Us to not having anything left over to Escape our AI Dystopia with.

Those who are Optomistic about AI Games and AI movies are Fools.

....but the profits will be worth it!

 

[Trogdor1123]

Within 150 years we will live in a feudal society again. Either that or it will be something much more advanced.

There will be no in between on this one.

There is actually a theory that the middle class, as we now have it, is just an outlier in human history and will go away. It’s rather interesting.

 

[Hugare]

it'll have the same impact as crypto. General public will continue to have misunderstanding of it because people keep mislabeling it.

Machine learning will have it uses because its good for doing 80% of the work with only 20% of the resources. It's good for tedious tasks but at the end of the day it's just a sophisticated input/output tool. It doesn't understand context. And as google has so wonderfully demonstrated, it can be programmed to have biases as well.

Companies only need one or maybe two people to know how to use the AI in order to replace most workers. The general public adoption of it will be meaningless. Executives will see profit charts and it will be all that it takes to greenlit it on their companies.

And I would research about how developed GPT is right now, and how much it has developed from where it was 1 year ago.

And it being biased doesnt matter for it to do the work of most people.

 

[T-0800]

I'm interested to see if one day all these companies will suddenly discover that there's no one able to buy their products and services because they laid everyone off.

This. How are MS or whoever going to drive their stock price up when they have no customers to sell to?

 

[nightlyactivity]

Idk but I hope I figure out how to sort out my ux career