How do you see the MMO (FP and RPG) market in 5 years?

Just goes to show a good MMO is worth the price. There is no F2P alternative that can match EvE or WoW.

Yeah I completely agree. I think if the devs can really understand that concept and make a quality MMO, the people will pay. I don't think it's an issue of people not wanting to, it's that no one really, as of late, has given the gamer a reason to. Except for these games which have a proven track record and continue to rake in the money.
 
I'm not sure, but it should be very interesting to see which ones crash and burn, and which live up to the hype.

Speaking mostly of WoW, I'm not sure where it will be in a 5 years, but I'm sorta optimistic.

I got burned out on Cata real bad, so bad I skipped MoP's launch which is the first time I missed an expansion. I started playing again recently because of reasons, and honestly, despite the lolpanda stigma, I think MoP is probably the best WoW expansion yet.

Just a lot of big and small improvements all around, and the content is much better and more diverse. Things like the farm and timeless isles are great additions to the game.

WoD seems to be on a similar path, with lots of quality of life improvements, and some big stuff like model updates. I don't think this will draw in a lot of new players, but it will probably slow down the bleeding.

WoW's biggest problem is that it's simply been around for so long at this point, no matter how much it improves, it's still WoW, and people have been playing it for almost a decade.
 
Wildstar's biggest danger isn't their potential playerbases gametime, it's expectations. WS' design will test this harder than every other MMO out there outside a few that got inspired by EVE and other hardcore pvp MMOs due to this.

Ah, I see the changes you made now that you point them out. Without nitpicking things too severely;

What I meant by them being unable to indulge in that play style anymore was not a reference to the changes made to World of Warcraft that have removed their preferred style of play, but the actual lifestyle changes that occur in the span of 5-10 years (I said 10, you mentioned 5; the game is actually 9 years old but that particular raiding scene dried up in 2008 with WotLK). College kids who could stay up all night raiding have graduated, started families, have full-time jobs, etc. I honestly feel like the demand for Vanilla/TBC-style raiding is about nostalgia for that particular time in their life more than the actual gameplay mechanics. I also think the rose-colored glasses get put on quick for Vanilla WoW, which was in much rougher shape than a lot of people remember. The expectations have been raised over the years and a lot of the things that made Vanilla raiding 'tick' won't mesh well. For example, Looking for Group / Raid is pretty much mandatory for games now, but there's no way you can deliver the kind of highly-organized raiding Vanilla WoW had without watering it down for the lowest common denominator. Just look at what happened with Dragon Soul at the end of Cataclysm and how few people actually ran the 'real' version.

As for the "Non-braindead questing", it's still the usual kill 10 rats / collect 10 bear asses / deliver this package-type stuff. At least they removed mob-tagging and plan to incorporate an element of risk/reward to complete tasks faster, but you're still running around finding a guy with an exclamation point over his head and doing chores for him. They may have hidden the numbers that indicate progress, but we all know an add-on will change it back almost immediately. Even Guild Wars 2's Dynamic Events haven't managed to completely change the way players interact with the world, but at least it's a step in the right direction (and one Wildstar doesn't seem too inclined to take, unless they've changed things recently).

Paths, are a neat idea, except that they actually remove features from being accessed unless you re-roll another character (they haven't said whether you can chance your path later in the game, but that would help). It seems odd (which is the exact way I described it) to lock content out for large chunks of the population based on a choice made at character creation.

To circle back to your original comment, the biggest danger Wildstar has (in my opinion, of course) is listening to the vocal minority that claims to know exactly what it wants when the reality is that the market for that kind of experience has diminished substantially and is still being filled by the 600 pound gorilla that made it so popular in the first place. In trying to appeal to the old-school 40 man raid audience and modern MMO sensibilities, it runs the risk of lacking appeal for both of them. The expectations are certainly just as dangerous (especially when people are running around mouthing off that it's the second coming of Vanilla WoW, which it cannot possibly be and most certainly is not), but I think even hype can be overcome. Having a schizophrenic design that tries to be everything all at once cannot, and it also runs the risk of lowering the overall game's quality by lacking focus.

Either way, when you 'fixed' my original comment, you didn't bother to change my outlook (F2P in the first year, lukewarm reception, quickly fading into obscurity), but I sense you would probably disagree with some of that. How do you think it will go?
 
Eve monthly sub can also be paid with ingame money which is a big push for many.

Plus F2P would destroy a game like Eve. It's completely incompatibile with it's design philosopy. And there are plenty of people who want this kind of experience as evidenced by the success of all the sub-based Kickstarters.
 
MMO is a tough space. The time to strike is when WoW gets taken down. Hopefully the game that takes off is more like EVE or UO than WoW. Because an MMO where you can easily play solo just doesn't make sense to me.
 
World of Warcraft will still be dominant.

Listen, I've tried and invested myself heavily in every WoW killer since 2004. All of them were nothing more than one week vacations.

The only MMOs that have distracted me for more than a week are EVE Online and FFXIV. EVE has awful gameplay and therefore is totally non recommendable, and the only reason I enjoyed FFXIV is because I'm a Final Fantasy fanboy.

The only game that might be good that's on the horizon is Star Citizen. I wouldn't hold my breath, though.
 
I think trying to predict what happens ONE year from now, never mind five, is a fools errand.

Though if I HAD to throw in my guess I would say there will be one massive WoW like MMO for each genre (FPS MMO, Racing MMO, Survival MMO etc) that everyone else is trying to catch up to like how the Fantasy RPG mmo's of today and the last few years are trying to catch WoW and pretty much failing.

Games like Destiny, The Division and The Crew might be the Ultima Online equivalents that pave the way for that one dominant MMO.
 
Ah, I see the changes you made now that you point them out. Without nitpicking things too severely;

What I meant by them being unable to indulge in that play style anymore was not a reference to the changes made to World of Warcraft that have removed their preferred style of play, but the actual lifestyle changes that occur in the span of 5-10 years (I said 10, you mentioned 5; the game is actually 9 years old but that particular raiding scene dried up in 2008 with WotLK). College kids who could stay up all night raiding have graduated, started families, have full-time jobs, etc. I honestly feel like the demand for Vanilla/TBC-style raiding is about nostalgia for that particular time in their life more than the actual gameplay mechanics. I also think the rose-colored glasses get put on quick for Vanilla WoW, which was in much rougher shape than a lot of people remember. The expectations have been raised over the years and a lot of the things that made Vanilla raiding 'tick' won't mesh well. For example, Looking for Group / Raid is pretty much mandatory for games now, but there's no way you can deliver the kind of highly-organized raiding Vanilla WoW had without watering it down for the lowest common denominator. Just look at what happened with Dragon Soul at the end of Cataclysm and how few people actually ran the 'real' version.

As for the "Non-braindead questing", it's still the usual kill 10 rats / collect 10 bear asses / deliver this package-type stuff. At least they removed mob-tagging and plan to incorporate an element of risk/reward to complete tasks faster, but you're still running around finding a guy with an exclamation point over his head and doing chores for him. They may have hidden the numbers that indicate progress, but we all know an add-on will change it back almost immediately. Even Guild Wars 2's Dynamic Events haven't managed to completely change the way players interact with the world, but at least it's a step in the right direction (and one Wildstar doesn't seem too inclined to take, unless they've changed things recently).

Paths, are a neat idea, except that they actually remove features from being accessed unless you re-roll another character (they haven't said whether you can chance your path later in the game, but that would help). It seems odd (which is the exact way I described it) to lock content out for large chunks of the population based on a choice made at character creation.

To circle back to your original comment, the biggest danger Wildstar has (in my opinion, of course) is listening to the vocal minority that claims to know exactly what it wants when the reality is that the market for that kind of experience has diminished substantially and is still being filled by the 600 pound gorilla that made it so popular in the first place. In trying to appeal to the old-school 40 man raid audience and modern MMO sensibilities, it runs the risk of lacking appeal for both of them. The expectations are certainly just as dangerous (especially when people are running around mouthing off that it's the second coming of Vanilla WoW, which it cannot possibly be and most certainly is not), but I think even hype can be overcome. Having a schizophrenic design that tries to be everything all at once cannot, and it also runs the risk of lowering the overall game's quality by lacking focus.

Either way, when you 'fixed' my original comment, you didn't bother to change my outlook (F2P in the first year, lukewarm reception, quickly fading into obscurity), but I sense you would probably disagree with some of that. How do you think it will go?

Because I don't know the random variables that will influence it beyond that. I do doubt it will fade though, the goals are too different even if the method is common for 2014. That goal (balance, socializing, action combattin', variety, Equality of Opportunity over Equality of Outcome) is like we both said:

"The expectations have been raised over the years and a lot of the things that made Vanilla raiding 'tick' won't mesh well. For example, Looking for Group / Raid is pretty much mandatory for games now, but there's no way you can deliver the kind of highly-organized raiding Vanilla WoW had without watering it down for the lowest common denominator. Just look at what happened with Dragon Soul at the end of Cataclysm and how few people actually ran the 'real' version."

However, that goal is incredibly rare nowadays; it won't win them a meteoric rise in subs, but I doubt it will splurge sell to millions then crater as 3month subs end like so many me-too WoW killers. It seems too complete, the dev team to focused on replayability and goals rather than completing goals and then replaying those same goals over and over and over till the next patch.

I don't doubt most in our age bracket can't grok it emotionally instead of chronologically, there has always been alot of adults who put in HOURS every day in every MMO I've played for over a decade, but the expectation of being done in an hour, that expectation of never logging off unsuccessful, of delayed payoff...that's what'll eat into that. Not the clamoring hype crew necessarily, but everyone else from our age group who will buy off of nostalgia and their keywords in the PR.

Thing is, that stuff in the quote? If the WS team don't do that (make raiding success mandatory, funnel people into doing that, nerf heavily, early, and often), players will have that impetus to socialize, work, and get better more to succeed then risk quitting from "being done". A game built like that pushes back emotionally while also luring forward emotionally; it's a powerful thing that wasn't, isn't, and never will be out of style, especially as it gets refined in the corners of game design, out of the limelight these last 8 or so years. That sells other games. It sold WoW for the first 4 years, it could sell again. Without that, WoW bleeds out people who learned to play better into other competitive genres (especially mmmmmmmmmmmmobas), leading to what you were describing with Cata.

Oh yeah, that potential spanner in the works is definately mmmmmmmmmobas. So many friends, guildmates, and acquaintences are in those now for that itch. It's all raiding and all arena in one activity with much less outside-of-activity overhead. They got that market on lock. MMOs looking to compete on that front are eating their seedcorn, potentially leaving the market open for those who can give those outside-of-activity things the respect and meaning they deserve as equal facets of the game and its success and not paint them as meaningless one-dimensional punishment and grind (if you can give us a free 90 now, why not before?!?)

40 man raid sizes is another spanner. That's HUGE. Very huge. Especially with the action component. All kind of flavor of danger there, no doubt.
 
Either way, when you 'fixed' my original comment, you didn't bother to change my outlook (F2P in the first year, lukewarm reception, quickly fading into obscurity), but I sense you would probably disagree with some of that. How do you think it will go?

The MMOs that went from subscription to Free to play within 1 year had major problems at launch.

So, if Wildstar is to follow this trend then it would need to be a sub-par game in most aspects of the game. Which means the type of questing and the numbers in raiding wont matter.

However, if Wildstar is a good game then it will have an audience willing to pay monthly.
 
A fusion of MMO/OFFLINE games where you can play single-player and then log onto a MMO type of game
Seems like more publishers are going for online/social even what would normally be a single player game so I don't see that happening.
 
The single biggest reason why I will always be more interested in a sub-based MMO than a F2P MMO is this: micro transactions. Elements of the game which should be earned will instead be sold. I would rather pay a sub and have access to all of the content.
 
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