A semi-related bond question.
Our 529 (state college savings plan) allows us to re-balance the portfolio once a year, in January. My daughter is currently in 100% stocks (partly US, part international), but she just started high school. My plan has been to move 20% over to bonds each year she's in high school, so her mix is 80/20 bonds/stocks by the time she graduates; I'll then maintain that mix through college (we'll keep contributing and re-balancing as she goes).
I'd settled on this approximate strategy a few years ago, in part assuming that interest rates would have normalized by now.
Yeah. Nope.
The problem is my understanding of bond fund prices are much less robust than my understanding of stock and stock funds. And in particular, how they'll move assuming the Fed holds to their planned rate increase schedule over the next year. I understand the fundamental inverse relationship between interest rate changes and bond prices (rate hikes driving current bond prices down). But given that, I'm hesitating to go through with shuffling money over to bonds since rates are likely to go up in the mid-term. And if the Fed keeps raising them for a couple years...won't that negatively impact prices for a while? Or are those expectations already factored into the market and prices?
The bond index option (there is only one)
is this one, and it's down ~4% over the past three months, which I'm assuming is tied to the recent rate change and guidance. But I'm really not sure.
I have "don't time the market" branded into my skull, but I'm really not sure how to apply that with bonds given their relationship to interest rates. But I'm nervous about keeping her account all in equities, as well.
If this was over a longer retirement horizon, I would not worry about it. But since it's a much shorter one, I'm less certain what to do.
I realize this is not directly tied to the thread, but I hope ya'll will indulge me.