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[Up a RIVER OF TEARS without an account]

Let's assume for a moment that the Xenon does launch at around October of this year. Let's assume that the marketing campaign is monsterous and the machine has some very decent launch games.

It has a very successful launch, perhaps the best of any platform in the US, and sales continue to be strong right through the holiday season.

It is assumed that the PS3 will launch in late 2006 in Japan, which could mean 2007 for the US. Either way, that gives publishers about an entire year where Xenon is the only next-gen console on the market.

If the unit is indeed very successful and enjoys a year or so of exclusive content, and this is only in the Americas mind you, I'm not talking Japan or Europe, do you think that it will become the dominant platoform in the western world?

Xenon would be, in essence, the new Playstation. It having a large installed base would mean most, if not all, new console games would be built on its technology and then later ported to PS3 and Revolution.

Most industry insiders agree that it is time for a sort of chaning of the guard. Nintendo dominated from 1985-1995, Sony from 1995-2005, and now it could be Microsoft's turn.

I'm just interested in your thoughts here. Will Xenon be the sort of go-to platform of the coming generation?

 

[olimario]

I think it will be. I think if Sony launches in Fall 06 they will remain behind MS the entire generation. Third parties love the XBOX. EA loves it, Ubi loves it, Eidos loves it. With full EA support the XENON will not fall from 1st.

 

[Elios83]

"It is assumed that the PS3 will launch in late 2006 in Japan, which could mean 2007 for the US"


No way,March 2006 in Japan at the latest.
Sony could also decide to launch in Japan at the end of 2005 with a couple of games.In Japan they can afford it and in the meantime they can sell the first milllion units.

 

[op_ivy]

its a tough thing to predict, especially being that we really dont know alot about xbox next, let alone ps3 and revolution...

but MS definitely has "momentum", and xbox has become a major player in the western markets, so its certainly plausable. only time will tell.

 

[Up a RIVER OF TEARS without an account]

In Japan they can afford it and in the meantime they can sell the first milllion units.

Are we talking about the same Japan? Last I checked their market wasn't exactly hot.

 

[Flipmo23]

I think Xenon launching this year would be a benefit to both Sony and Nintendo in a sort of indirect manner. Think about it, this machine is being hyped up to be so powerful, it gives Sony and Nintendo a year to beef up the specs of their own systems.

With one beefed up console already out, people will have to decide between PS3 and Revolution in 2006/7. I think at that point it's really in Nintendo's hands as to whether or not their system will really offer that unique of an experience.

I see many Sony/Nintendo faithfuls just sticking it out until their company launches, 2005 just seems so early for a new system. I feel like I just got my GCN/Xbox [got the GC at launch and the Xbox about 8 months later].

 

[Elios83]

Are we talking about the same Japan? Last I checked their market wasn't exactly hot.

DS sold 1.4 million units in just a month,Sony can't satisfy demand on PSP.The market is hot with the right products.
PS3 will be huge without any doubt and Sony can easily repeat the PS2 situation there.

Edit:By the way I don't think we have enough details to make predictions.
We don't know the technical specifics,we don't know the kind of exclusive software both Sony and Microsoft have secured to their systems,we don't know when they're launching exactly.
You could say that Xenon will have a lead because it will be first to the market and will have a strong support,but maybe the same people were expecting the PS2 to be crushed by the more powerful XBox and Gamecube a few years ago.

 

[SKluck]

XBX2 Fall 2005 WORLD
PS3 Spring 2006 JAP
PS3 Fall 2006 US
Revolution Fall 2006 JAP/US?

My estimate.

I originally thought MS would be waay behind technologically because of launching so early, but the PS3 specs are frozen at the Japanese launch. Which means 6 months of just sitting on static HW until the US launch.

MS has a very very good chance of dominating everywhere but japan.

 

[Flipmo23]

XBX2 Fall 2005 WORLD
PS3 Spring 2006 JAP
PS3 Fall 2006 US
Revolution Fall 2006 JAP/US?

My estimate.

I originally thought MS would be waay behind technologically because of launching so early, but the PS3 specs are frozen at the Japanese launch. Which means 6 months of just sitting on static HW until the US launch.

MS has a very very good chance of dominating everywhere but japan.

Forgot about that... well, I don't see it as a bad move by MS, but I still think it works well for Sony and Nintendo, since they get time to beef up their specs to match Xenon, which looks like is going to be a beast.

 

[Up a RIVER OF TEARS without an account]

Oh, yes. I forgot to talk about format and development cycle.

It is all but confirmed that the Xenon will use HD-DVD discs. One of the reasons that developers went largely with PS2 and Xbox over GCN was because DVD discs were cheap, they held a lot of data, and were very mainstream. This happened last generation with PS1 and N64. Format means a lot.

The PS3 will buck the Playstation trend. It will use Sony's own Blu-Ray format for gaming and movie-viewing. The problem here is that Blu-Ray disc, though they hold more data, are much more expensive to produce and won't be exactly mainstream.

HD-DVD has the exclusive backing of:
Warner Brothers
New Line Cinema
Universal Studios
Dreamworks SKG
Paramount Pictures

More are sure to follow. It won't be much of a selling point for PS3 when most movies simply aren't avaliable on their own format, regardless of how much data the discs hold.

It is also no secret that the PS2 is an absolute bitch to develop for. Of course, due to the high volume of users, publishers are pretty much forced to wrestle the hardware and release their games on the platform.

The same will hold true for the PS3. The often-touted, software-powered CELL chips are not going to be nearly as easy or friendly as Microsft's offering. With staggering hardware ability, an industry-accepted standard format, and friendly developer enviornment, what's not to like?

 

[Luscious LeftFoot]

Your assumption proposes a lot of things in MS's favour, and why exactly would we be ignoring Japan and Europian markets?

Oh, and you forgot about the wildcard, Nintendo

 

[Kleegamefan]

HD-DVD has the exclusive backing of:
Warner Brothers
New Line Cinema
Universal Studios
Dreamworks SKG
Paramount Pictures

BULLSHITE!!!

All of these studios have *NOT* commited to "exclusive" HD-DVD content and, indeed, all but Warner have said they are considering releasing movies on BRD as well as HD-DVD....this was common knowledge @ CES...

Try again...

 

[OmniGamer]

Are those studios really exclusive? Last I heard there was support, but not exclusive support. Besides Blu-Ray has some pretty strong support on the manufacture side of things.

Anywho, you forgot that the PS3 WON'T be blu-ray only for it's media format...it has legacy support for DVD-ROMS, DVD movies, Playstation and Playstation 2 CD-ROMs, and audio CDs...there was a slide that showed this.

 

[Spike Spiegel]

Why IS there a Xenon theme today?

 

[Elios83]

Oh, yes. I forgot to talk about format and development cycle.

It is all but confirmed that the Xenon will use HD-DVD discs. One of the reasons that developers went largely with PS2 and Xbox over GCN was because DVD discs were cheap, they held a lot of data, and were very mainstream. This happened last generation with PS1 and N64. Format means a lot.

The PS3 will buck the Playstation trend. It will use Sony's own Blu-Ray format for gaming and movie-viewing. The problem here is that Blu-Ray disc, though they hold more data, are much more expensive to produce and won't be exactly mainstream.

HD-DVD has the exclusive backing of:
Warner Brothers
New Line Cinema
Universal Studios
Dreamworks SKG
Paramount Pictures

More are sure to follow. It won't be much of a selling point for PS3 when most movies simply aren't avaliable on their own format, regardless of how much data the discs hold.

It is also no secret that the PS2 is an absolute bitch to develop for. Of course, due to the high volume of users, publishers are pretty much forced to wrestle the hardware and release their games on the platform.

The same will hold true for the PS3. The often-touted, software-powered CELL chips are not going to be nearly as easy or friendly as Microsft's offering. With staggering hardware ability, an industry-accepted standard format, and friendly developer enviornment, what's not to like?

Sorry but you're not well informed and a little biased towards Microsoft in your comments.
No format has exclusive support at the moment and if the HD-DVD has the support of the companies you have listed,Blu Ray is backed by Columbia,MGM,20th Century Fox,Disney and all the Buena Vista Group (Miramax etc).Also EA has declared Blu Ray support.
Moreover Blu Ray is backed by a lot more companies of the electronics and PC world than the HD-DVD.So won't it be much of a selling point for Xenon when all the movies from these companies aren't available in its supported format?

The fact of Cell being more diffucult to program than Xenon CPU is just your speculation so it doesn't need to be commented as a fact.

 

[gofreak]

It is assumed that the PS3 will launch in late 2006 in Japan, which could mean 2007 for the US.

PS3 is assumed to be launching Q2 2006 in Japan and Q4 in the US ala PS2 in 2000.

If the unit is indeed very successful and enjoys a year or so of exclusive content, and this is only in the Americas mind you, I'm not talking Japan or Europe, do you think that it will become the dominant platoform in the western world?

Well, if you're talking about "the western world" you have to think about Europe. Sony and MS could end up launching in similar enough timeframes in Europe (if MS chooses to launch in Japan after the US and before Europe), and Europe is massively Sony territory.

Timing alone isn't everything anyway. There's precedent there regarding consoles launching earlier than Playstations and not faring very well.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

Why IS there a Xenon theme today?

I blame Ivan from Ign ps2

 

[Phoenix]

Why IS there a Xenon theme today?

XBot hibernation program ended after CES and they are gradually posting in forums the world over.

 

[OmniGamer]

 

[Up a RIVER OF TEARS without an account]

Your assumption proposes a lot of things in MS's favour, and why exactly would we be ignoring Japan and Europian markets?

Oh, and you forgot about the wildcard, Nintendo

I left Nintendo out of this discussion because there's no telling what Revolution is all about. Just as you said, Nintendo's a wildcard. Don't get me wrong, as an N-Fanboy, I hope (and believe) that they will do very well.

As for Japan, I highly doubt that MS will ever do well there. The type of games that sell the best on the Microsoft platform simply aren't popular there. Save, of course, the Team Ninja games.

 

[border]

How is it "all but confirmed" that Xenon will use HD-DVD. Nobody at MS has commented on the tech....there's nothing about it in MS patents. It is completely speculation. If they are trying to cut costs on the new system, I don't see why they would introduce such an expensive new technology that doesn't offer a very big leap in terms of storage.

 

[Phoenix]

I left Nintendo out of this discussion because there's no telling what Revolution is all about. Just as you said, Nintendo's a wildcard. Don't get me wrong, as an N-Fanboy, I hope (and believe) that they will do very well.

As for Japan, I highly doubt that MS will ever do well there. The type of games that sell the best on the Microsoft platform simply aren't popular there. Save, of course, the Team Ninja games.

To Microsoft's credit they've been trying to get more Japaneese Xbox developers. From what I've been ablt to ascertain from various devs in Japan they have met with limited success - but that's better than their current position.

 

[gofreak]

I left Nintendo out of this discussion because there's no telling what Revolution is all about.

Thing is, we know very little about any of the systems yet...

E3 should make things clearer.

 

[Up a RIVER OF TEARS without an account]

*snicker*

I love the assumption that I favor Microsoft. I'm not an Xbot. Not by a long shot. But I tend to call things as I see them and I think it's very plasuable that Microsoft could dominate next-gen because of these observations.

I never said that I wanted Microsoft to dominate. I don't. I've long tired of Halo and the FPS genre as a whole, which is the bread and butter of Xbox.

 

[gofreak]

If they are trying to cut costs on the new system, I don't see why they would introduce such an expensive new technology that doesn't offer a very big leap in terms of storage.

Bill Gates seems certain that Xenon is MS elevating Xbox to the same strategic position as Playstation is to Sony in terms of general media control etc. It's about more than just games for them now. MS supports HD-DVD versus Blu-ray, right? So they probably will stick it in there to drive consumer adoption. It doesn't really matter that it's not that much more useful for games, because Xenon isn't a pure games machine...they want it to be a general entertainment hub, and I think HD-DVD would fit into their vision of that.

 

[doncale]

Xenon is by far the most solid and known entity in the nextgen console wars. It's hardware is already fairly well known & understood. not that aren't some mysterious about it. I cannot wait. I'll be getting Xenon at launch. you can trust Microsoft will be coming with some good games. and I'm not talking about Rare or PD0 (couldn't give a shit about that frankly) but almost everything else. Microsoft has been working since 2002 on its Xbox2 plans.
November launch in U.S. with probably 20 games at launch, at least. 30-50 games by end of year. I hope MS can pull of a December UK/Euro launch and then early 2006 in Japan just before PS3 arrives.


Das Scotter is assuming that:

It is assumed that the PS3 will launch in late 2006 in Japan, which could mean 2007 for the US. Either way, that gives publishers about an entire year where Xenon is the only next-gen console on the market.

where are you getting that from?

no way in fucking hell will Sony DELAY the PS3 into 2007 for the U.S. -that would be suicide, even for Sony. you're forgetting that Sony has been planning and working on PS3 since before Microsoft even announced the original Xbox. since 1999 bro. the PS3 is due in early 06 ~ spring 06 in Japan. September-October 2006 in U.S./NA and probably late 2006 in UK/Europe. maybe 2007 for smaller, lesser important markets.


lets not make stuff up, k? :lol

 

[Gattsu25]

*reads Das Scotter's speculation*

:lol

Those crazy Junior Members

 

[border]

MS supports HD-DVD versus Blu-ray, right?

MS makes their codecs available to both formats.

you can trust Microsoft will be coming with some good games.

I don't see why I should expect a good launch lineup from Microsoft. They've had trouble coming out with good games for the life of the first system. Their most important developers (Bungie, Bioware, Big Blue Box) have just shot their load and will have to embark on brand new multi-year projects. A new PGR is about the best we can expect I think.

 

[jarrod]

XBX2 Fall 2005 WORLD
PS3 Spring 2006 JAP
PS3 Fall 2006 US
Revolution Fall 2006 JAP/US?

Well, if we're guessing launch timeframes...

Xenon
NA: Fall 2005
JP: Winter 2005/2006
EU: Spring 2006

PlayStation 3
JP: Spring 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006

Revolution
JP: Summer 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Winter 2006/2007

 

[doncale]

Well, if we're guessing launch timeframes...

Xenon
NA: Fall 2005
JP: Winter 2005/2006
EU: Spring 2006

PlayStation 3
JP: Spring 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006

Revolution
JP: Summer 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Winter 2006/2007

couldn't have made better guess myself

 

[gofreak]

Xenon is by far the most solid and known entity in the nextgen console wars.

Is it? We've heard more rumour and speculation about it, but we don't know much about it at all yet. In terms of actually announced info, we know as much about PS3 or Xbox2. Nintendo's the one keeping very tightlipped, at least as far as tech partners go.

 

[Piper Az]

If Xenon is backward-compatible, I'm getting it. My xbox has been failing due to the shitty DVD drive often lately.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

you can trust Microsoft will be coming with some good games.

I can't

 

[COCKLES]

Japan is the wildcard.

Will the Jap's embrace a western console? I doubt it...but if they do. And MS break the bank for Japanese support with Square coming on board...then that really will be a dent in Sony's plans for world domination.

I expect.

Japan > PS3 > Xenon
Europe > PS3 > Xenon
US > Xenon > PS3

after 3 or 4 years of them both being on the market. Europe will be close run thing - but it's safe to say it's Sony country still.

 

[SantaC]

Well, if we're guessing launch timeframes...

Xenon
NA: Fall 2005
JP: Winter 2005/2006
EU: Spring 2006

PlayStation 3
JP: Spring 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Fall 2006

Revolution
JP: Summer 2006
NA: Fall 2006
EU: Winter 2006/2007

Could the revolution launch in america before Japan? The DS might be an indication.

 

[The End]

As long as Sony still gets all of the good jpn-developed 3rd party exclusives, I'm happy. I couldn't care less which console Splinter Cell and GTA appear on first.