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[alexandros]

Searched for the article, found nothing but lock if old. Gamasutra seem to be calling Sony's core gamer focus into question, as they claim that consumer habits have changed. Have they?

Tretton's comments left us scratching our heads and wondering if he's living in some parallel universe where the retail video game console business is thriving.

Consumer habits are changing. The NPD Group's annual report shows that in the United States, money is shifting away from retail and toward digital as Americans continue to embrace smaller, cheaper digital content. According to a recent report by SuperData, the money spent on microtransactions of free-to-play games in the United States rose 42 percent last year.

And yet, when confronted with this, Tretton seems to see these games as little more than a distraction.

And according to Tretton, the expanded video game market (he says there are now "a billion gamers worldwide") that is now spending money on games thanks to the accessibility and appeal of smartphone titles will, eventually, "migrate up the food chain" to become traditional triple-A console game players. They will, according to his logic, purchase expensive new machines (Tretton didn't even flinch when a CNBC reporter suggested the PlayStation 4 might be $600) in order to graduate from Angry Birds to Killzone.

And with its PlayStation division's operating income down 86 percent last quarter, we're not sure that's a gamble Sony can afford to make.

More at the full article.

 

[The_Hitcher89]

I think there'll always be a profitable audience for it, but they could lock themselves out of the possibilty of being a mega-success by focussing on us

With the state of Sony though, they kind of need it to be a mega-success

 

[lefantome]

No way, true gamers are a the bigger and safest market.

They can still try to sell the console to casuals, they have the new eyetoy, set top box functionalities and etc..

There is no need to rick the biggest and safest market when you can try to have both sooner or later when the console will be cheaper.


@the__hitcher: unless the mega success is backfiring killing your console years in advance like what happened to the wii. If the ps3 had been well designed it could have been hugely profitable and it will probably be on the top. Anyway the ps3 is not dead yet and I think that is going to sell a lot for 3 years more at least.

 

[Aquamarine]

Cifaldi makes a very astute observation: Tretton's / Sony's strategy directly contests analyst sentiment.

The two draw the line on the health of the retail market. Sony is betting the PS4 will revive the market. Analysts are betting that the market has permanently shifted.

We'll have to wait and see which one is correct.

 

[Pureauthor]

I'm of the opinion that given current circumstances, 'betting the farm' on anything is not a good idea for Sony.

As for whether or not something like this could work, I need to know more about their plan for the PS4 before judging.

 

[gofreak]

There was a large market for premium console games this gen.

The success of other types of games is great, but I'm not sure it's so subtractive of the performance of console gaming as to render the business unsustainable.

I also don't think Sony is betting the farm on 'true gamers' or traditional console gamers. That's obviously the big focus for PS4 right now but they have other initiatives in the works that are clearly designed for other types of consumer.

 

[Y2Kev]

No, it's a short term strategy. They will appeal to the core early, get the userbase up, and the price of components will drop quickly for a variety of reasons (the Durango will use them, they're basically PC parts). Then they can go after the casuals. I'd be worried about a Sony strategy targeting the casuals with even a $399 box, which, being honest, is the lowest any new console was going to come in at for Sony without subsidization.

I want to say it's the Vita strategy except that third parties will actually make games on PS4, and that there is a proven "premium game" console market compared to handhelds.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

Should they bet their farm on casual gamers? Worked great for the WiiU. It's safer to make a powerful console and attract casuals with interesting / optional peripherals later when the price goes down. Core gamer market is big enough.

 

[Derrick01]

I don't understand the problem. It's not like they made the system incapable of playing these shitty F2P or $1 games, they'll be there if devs want them to be. But everyone tries to get the loyal part of the fanbase to buy in first in a new generation, then as time goes on they try to embrace the more fickle crowd.

 

[Sydle]

Tretton said they want a diverse lineup of games, priced from 0.99 to $60. I'm sure the early adopter phase will be $60 game heavy, with more indie focus as the price becomes accessible to casuals.

I think MS is taking a middle of the road approach, coming in with a cheaper system, but trying to grab both core and casuals early with many different types of content.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[FordGTGuy]

PS4 and Xbox 720 have quite a uphill battle on their hands, they've already lost some of their potential casual demographic to tablets. The PS4 is definitely going to push being a media hub big time the core gamer demographic is too small to rely on by itself.

I don't understand the problem. It's not like they made the system incapable of playing these shitty F2P or $1 games, they'll be there if devs want them to be. But everyone tries to get the loyal part of the fanbase to buy in first in a new generation, then as time goes on they try to embrace the more fickle crowd.

Those crappy $1 games are being played on Tablets right now I don't see anyone dropping $400+ to play them on the PS4.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Cifaldi makes a very astute observation: Tretton's / Sony's strategy directly contests analyst sentiment.

The two draw the line on the health of the retail market. Sony is betting the PS4 will revive the market. Analysts are betting that the market has permanently shifted.

We'll have to wait and see which one is correct.

Indeed. I feel they are using the extremely lukewarm reception of the Wii U as the barometer by which they are measuring if the market has shifted along with the explosion in Free 2 Play games and mobile gaming.

A mistake in my humble opinion, but as you rightly say, we shall have to wait and see if they are right.

 

[MikeE21286]

Casuals are fleeting.

It's difficult to completely target your strategy around them.

 

[partyphone]

There's a small yet dedicated group of people who will always buy dedicated gaming machines. But no one is going to be seeing iPhone or iPad numbers.

Also, what happens when the app store opens up on the AppleTV?

 

[Fatghost]

I bought 6 PS3 consoles, 4 X360 consoles, 2 Wiis and multiple controllers for each last gen - for different TVs in my house, not to replace broken consoles.

I bought about 70 physical games for 360 and 55 physical games for PS3, I even managed to find 8 games worth buying on Wii.

I have around 70 XBLA/Games on Demand and 30 PSN games as well.

How many casuals and soccer moms would Sony have to sell to equal one hardcore gamer like me?

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

They do need to come swinging off the gates tho.

 

[Durante]

No, it's a short term strategy. They will appeal to the core early, get the userbase up, and the price of components will drop quickly for a variety of reasons (the Durango will use them, they're basically PC parts). Then they can go after the casuals.

That's it in a nutshell. What I don't get is how so many analysts and commentators fail to understand this basic concept.

The console market is different from smartphones or tablets in that you build your platform and then sell it for 5 or more years. So it makes perfect sense to price discriminate at multiple points, and try to appeal to the customers most likely to spend more on your system at the start.

 

[The_Hitcher89]

I don't understand the problem. It's not like they made the system incapable of playing these shitty F2P or $1 games, they'll be there if devs want them to be. But everyone tries to get the loyal part of the fanbase to buy in first in a new generation, then as time goes on they try to embrace the more fickle crowd.

That's a good point that I always forget. I just equate casual games to motion/simplified controls now and overlook all the other 'casual' markets

 

[Y2Kev]

Hasn't the retail market effectively died because the Wii died? The consoles are probably performing relatively in-line with how other 6 and 7 year old machines have performed (or even better, maybe), but the Wii fell off the table and as a result the retail market has been cut in half compared to its height 3 years ago.

I dunno if it is a seachange to mobile. I mean, there's definitely a seachange in that people are playing games on mobile like they never were. But I'm not sure it's zero-sum.

 

[dragonelite]

Dont know but nintendo betting this time on the casuals isn;t paying them good returns right?

 

[Auto_aim1]

Tretton didn't explain their business model well in that interview. In the conference they did say the console will support all types of games and devs can experiment with different revenue streams.

 

[Mung]

It's so damn obvious, but the media have an agenda.

Only hardcore gamers are going to spend >400 on a console, which is why you target them first.

The Angry Birds crew aren't going to get these consoles until they're cheap.

 

[BrokenEchelon]

I don't understand the problem. It's not like they made the system incapable of playing these shitty F2P or $1 games, they'll be there if devs want them to be. But everyone tries to get the loyal part of the fanbase to buy in first in a new generation, then as time goes on they try to embrace the more fickle crowd.

This. The thing is going to cater to just about every market within gaming, or at least offer the ability for developers/publishers to cater to those markets.

 

[Derrick01]

Those crappy $1 games are being played on Tablets right now I don't see anyone dropping $400+ to play them on the PS4.

Right. The advantage is being able to play a lot more games that tablets simply cannot play, if you want to at least. And all the while offering the same crummy tablet games to keep these people in familiar territory. Best of both worlds, something tablets don't and won't offer.

 

[thehypocrite]

Analyst see the retail market but overlook the digital ecosystems that Sony/MSFT have, Is like if analyst have more data than Sony about the market trends, The console will be CORE focused at the start because it's going to priced outside of mainstream reach/willingness, once they get their base up and can reduce cost they'll aim for those cost concious consumers.

 

[Manmademan]

No way, true gamers are a the bigger and safest market.

They can still try to sell the console to casuals, they have the new eyetoy, set top box functionalities and etc..

There is no need to rick the biggest and safest market when you can try to have both sooner or later when the console will be cheaper.

yup. the core gamer market bought 140+ million PS3s and 360s this cycle- at VERY high cost. And this assumes that none of the Wii gamers were core gamers (I'm sure some are, but leaving the wii numbers out for now)

The PS3 has been out since 2006 and just recently dropped to a price point below where the PS2 launched. At more sane price points ($149, 199) they will sell even more of them.

Tretton is right- designing a console for the angry birds crowd is a good way to find yourself out of business. no one is going to buy a $399 console FOR angry birds and cut the rope. Ipads sell because they do a lot of other things, and gaming is incidental. A viable console must focus on your core consumers, but expand functionality to draw in casual gamers on top of it.

 

[michaelius]

Bilions of gamers playing on smartphones wouldn't buy console for $400 anyway.

There's a stable >100 milions market of core console gamers for last two generations. When ps4 costs drop to 200-250$ Sony will go for casuals.

But seriously such shit from gamasutra ?

 

[njean777]

You cannot put your faith into the casual market as it is so fickle and to ignore your base is outright stupid. Bring in the core audience and with time the casual audience will come when the price drops.

The free to play market is a bloodbath and that is not something you rest your console on. Including them is fine, but do not put your future on the line with that tripe.

Dont know but nintendo betting this time on the casuals isn;t paying them good returns right?

Nintendo went casual last gen and as a consequence a lot of the core have abandoned them.

 

[-COOLIO-]

Cifaldi makes a very astute observation: Tretton's / Sony's strategy directly contests analyst sentiment.

The two draw the line on the health of the retail market. Sony is betting the PS4 will revive the market. Analysts are betting that the market has permanently shifted.

We'll have to wait and see which one is correct.

Yup. But I already know that Sony is right here.

 

[Opiate]

No way, true gamers are a the bigger and safest market.

They are safer, but not bigger.

They can still try to sell the console to casuals, they have the new eyetoy, set top box functionalities and etc..

Absolutely, and it's possible it will work -- but I doubt it. In the PS2 era, the Eyetoy and Guitar Hero worked to bring in casuals because casuals literally had nothing else; there was no Wii, there was no iPhone, there was no iPad. There weren't PC Browser games or Facebook games.

Now the Eyetoy has competition. And generally, a platform that makes an audience its secondary concern is going to lose that audience to a platform that makes the same audience its primary concern. In other words, "casuals" are a lot less likely to stick around when there are now lots of other platforms that cater specifically and especially to them.

There is no need to rick the biggest and safest market when you can try to have both sooner or later when the console will be cheaper.

It's possible, but that doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[FordGTGuy]

I bought 6 PS3 consoles, 4 X360 consoles, 2 Wiis and multiple controllers for each last gen - for different TVs in my house, not to replace broken consoles.

I bought about 70 physical games for 360 and 55 physical games for PS3, I even managed to find 8 games worth buying on Wii.

I have around 70 XBLA/Games on Demand and 30 PSN games as well.

How many casuals and soccer moms would Sony have to sell to equal one hardcore gamer like me?

There are a ton of casuals for the amount of hardcore gamers like you.

Right. The advantage is being able to play a lot more games that tablets simply cannot play, if you want to at least. And all the while offering the same crummy tablet games to keep these people in familiar territory. Best of both worlds, something tablets don't and won't offer.

The most popular crappy games are never that graphically impressive or intensive, just look at the top paid games on Android.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/...?t=W251bGwsMSwyLDcwNCwiYXBwc19ob21lX0dBTUUiXQ..

If you over look GTA III and NFS:MW(that do run generally well on new tablets.) pretty much all the games are nothing to write home about graphically.

 

[gkryhewy]

I think the bigger issue is that they aren't showing any software that breaks out of their existing fanbase. Killzone 4 is fine, but is that really a flagship franchise when the previous entry launched to 250k units in the US?

 

[Cheech]

It's so damn obvious, but the media have an agenda.

What agenda is that?

And yes, it was a massive mistake not introducing more stuff with the PS4 with more widespread appeal.

 

[Ocaso]

There was a large market for premium console games this gen.

The success of other types of games is great, but I'm not sure it's so subtractive of the performance of console gaming as to render the business unsustainable.

This is key. Can anybody deny the absurd success of the Assassins Creed franchise or Modern Warfare? There's no doubt the casual space has blown up, but it now exists as a complement to the core experience, not as a substitution. The notion that it will eliminate or render moot the portable dedicated consoles is a far more plausible one than it affecting the home consoles, at least for the time being. Stagnation due to consoles long in the tooth and still rather overpriced is more likely.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Kohler has a similar article up on Wired today. IMO it's completely missing the plot. If you can't appeal to hardcore gamers, what's the point of even releasing anything? Media features are nice, but Apple TV or Roku can do the same thing for a lot less money (and only uses a couple watts of power). And the tablet market is constantly expanding. It won't be long before they can stream all of this to the TV too. You better appeal to the core gamer, or else it's going to be DoA. Consoles won't die because they focused on core gamers, consoles will die because they couldn't capture that market in sufficient numbers.

 

[Alexios]

Yeah, their marketing campaign layout has next to no mainstream appeal, only the most hardcore gamers will ever get the system, not only in its early years where it's natural for early adopters to be the more enthusiastic hobbyists, but for the whole damn generation. Sony clearly shot themselves in the foot with the PS4. Wait, what's that, they have yet to even show how those campaigns and the actual platform and software for it will develop over time? Why I never...

Media Molecule's next game is so hardcore though, can't wait for it myself.

 

[R3TRODYCE]

Yes, because sure gamers will run out and buy it around launch time but for the longevity of the console they need the casuals and more than just games.

 

[Replicant]

What do they expect Sony to do? Make a tablet? They've already done that with Xperia Z line up.

 

[Oersted]

Pretty likely that we will have IPad 5 vs traditional consoles this holiday. Whatever the results will be, i hope the whole speculation will finally end. Doubt it though...

Their operating income is down 86 percent because they bet the farm on LBP Karting and Wonderbook and somehow this is a statement against core gamers?

lol. Don´t forget PSBAR. Casual titles everywhere.

 

[darkside31337]

Their operating income is down 86 percent because they bet the farm on LBP Karting and Wonderbook and somehow this is a statement against core gamers?

 

[M3d10n]

Hasn't the retail market effectively died because the Wii died? The consoles are probably performing relatively in-line with how other 6 and 7 year old machines have performed (or even better, maybe), but the Wii fell off the table and as a result the retail market has been cut in half compared to its height 3 years ago.

I dunno if it is a seachange to mobile. I mean, there's definitely a seachange in that people are playing games on mobile like they never were. But I'm not sure it's zero-sum.

Yeah, Sony not releasing a PS4 would make the "prophecy" self-fulfilling.

 

[gofreak]

Tretton didn't explain their business model well in that interview. In the conference they did say the console will support all types of games and devs can experiment with different revenue streams.

PS4 won't attract the kind of consumer analysts and journalists are talking about at its initial pricepoint, if at all.

These are consumers with an extremely low tolerance for friction in their consumption of games, and likely very little motivation towards boxes that identify themselves as game machines.

So I think it's fine to question whether PS4 appeals to those consumers.

I think, however, it is also fine to question if PS4 has to capture all those consumers, or if the market PS4 is aimed at is too small to be worthwhile.

And I also think it's fine to question whether Sony is in fact putting all their eggs in that basket. I don't think they are, but Tretton did a poor job turning the conversation to talk about what Sony is doing for those markets more directly. They do have initiatives targeting super-low friction access to PlayStation gaming, and those initiatives are not chiefly aimed at their existing userbase. He shouldn't let journalists walk away from an interview with the impression that PS4 and the core gamer is the only platform Sony is playing on into the future.

 

[partyphone]

Dont know but nintendo betting this time on the casuals isn;t paying them good returns right?

Except Nintendo isn't doing that. It sold poorly during a slow month where they didn't have any new games to push systems. The Vita did even worse than the Wii U.

 

[Opiate]

No, it's a short term strategy. They will appeal to the core early, get the userbase up, and the price of components will drop quickly for a variety of reasons (the Durango will use them, they're basically PC parts). Then they can go after the casuals. I'd be worried about a Sony strategy targeting the casuals with even a $399 box, which, being honest, is the lowest any new console was going to come in at for Sony without subsidization.

I really think this is a poor strategy. Sony isn't so talented that they can expect to win the casuals by treating them as a secondary objective when other talented companies (some considerably more talented than Sony) make casual gamers their primary objective, focusing all of their gaming efforts on them.

Again, the PS2 won the casuals in an age when there were essentially no platforms which catered to casuals first and foremost. Now there are several which come in a variety of shapes, sizes, and prices.

Sure, it's possible Sony will pull it out anyway. But I don't think it's likely, and it isn't a gamble I would take.

 

[spekkeh]

I don't get this idea that true gamers are somehow not consumers. Like they're a different breed of animal that do not have human tendencies and sensibilities.

 

[spwolf]

Searched for the article, found nothing but lock if old. Gamasutra seem to be calling Sony's core gamer focus into question, as they claim that consumer habits have changed. Have they?







More at the full article.

gotta say i love gamer sites dumping on sony for making "hard core" gaming device. Do they think that casual mom and dad gamers go to gamasutra?

Thats like Motortrend ridiculing Ferrari for being too fast and spending too much fuel.

 

[drizzle]

We're the only demographic that matters.

Look at the Wii: massive sales success, then massive sales decline and not good attach rate.

360 and PS3 are the other way around. 360 keeps breaking records every holiday season.

 

[Globox_82]

betting their farm? I guess these tools skipped first hour of the press. That was more social than current xbox.

 

[Copenap]

I like how they throw aroumd the 42% increase as if that means anything. Give me market shares but don't compare growing but still relatively small markets with a saturated market at the end of the life cycle..

 

[grimshawish]

Their not betting the farm on anything.
People need to stop this nonsense.

The PS4 is aimed at being accessible and very social. Social Gaming is what the casual gamer who loves COD is looking for. The sports gamer will like it for the same reasons.

This stupid assumption that all gamers are the same as you, is ridiculous and remains factually wrong.
In Doctor Who fandom they use the term 'the not we', which is a reference to the show but is also very very good at capturing everyone you mean when your talking about people not as involved as you.


The PS4 is interesting to the not we with the new online functionality.
The games? Not so far, but it'll come.