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Is Sony making a mistake by betting the farm on 'true' gamers?
- Thread starter alexandros
- Start date
1) Probably not, in my opinion. Just as I don't feel the Xbox 360 was a good investment for Microsoft either, despite the fact that it was eventually profitable. And I'm certainly not alone in that; many analysts have suggested the same thing. What defines a successful venture depends on significantly on the company, the context, and the opportunity cost.
2) No, so hopefully those other departments prove more adventurous and less safe. I'm not saying the risk has to be taken in the gaming department; but it has to be taken somewhere.
didnt facebook game market cave in completely?
I am not sure why do you think that by focusing on gamers first, they make it worse for casuals? What exactly sucks for casuals on PS4?
Only worse thing for casuals will be the price... otherwise please do point what is the negative of PS4 compared to lets say Wii U? All the social integration?
Everything they did also helps casual gaming... except for the price.
Manmademan
Member
Kev,
pure speculation on my part, but I interpreted "expanding content to other devices" to mean that Sony is looking eventually to make playstation a service, not strictly a console. Think of making playstation an "app" that can stream PS1, Ps2, Ps3, or Ps4 content on demand to any platform in a netflix-like model. PS4 games would likely come at a premium, but 1, 2, and 3 games have basically run their course already. Is 10 bucks a month a reasonable cost to play any of say...500 Ps2 games, as much as you want? maybe.
suddenly playstation becomes relevant to people who don't buy consoles, but like the occasional time waster on their laptop, tablet, etc. You don't need to build an emulator that works on a bazillion android devices either- everything is platform agnostic.
I don't see the PS4 precluding the other parts of the company from working on mobile gaming, the PS4 *is* sony's long term mobile gaming plan.
You're kidding right?
With the amount of money they are currently investing into the PS4 if it were to fail the company would never be the same. They aren't like Microsoft they don't have billions just to throw at a RROD problem and make it go away.
ibun
Member
i would stop talking about betting farms and niche players. its since the beginning of time, that new technology is bought by early adopters which mostly are also gamers (real gamers, not doodle jump enthusiasts). the real fight begins after year one, when the first price drops are and the game library gets its boost. at this crucial moment the PS4 needs to have a good reputation and more then just a big game library. by this time you need a big variety of games not just numbers. the early adopters are the ones running the opinion machine. results are to be seen at the end of year two. only then you can see if you did enough to crater the interessts. i think thats what also happend to the PS3/PS2.
I don't know, but just for starters I wouldn't make a 500 dollar system.
This is really the key point here: analysts are saying Sony needs to do something surprising and unexpected because doing the safe, traditional thing is slowly bleeding them dry. I don't know precisely how Sony would capture the Facebook/casual market; that's the nature of surprising, unexpected things. If I knew how to do it, I would be a billionaire.
It reminds me a bit of Nintendo with the 3DS -- they couldn't figure out how to tap in to people like they did with the DS, so they made what is effectively a super DS because it was relatively safe and predictable. It won't sell nearly as well as the DS, but at least it won't fall completely flat on its face as it could have if Nintendo went out in to left field again and failed.
Do you have any opinion on what the PS4 should have looked like if you could design it from scratch?
I think opportunity cost is an interesting question. Sony has invested massively into the kind of development you identify (I think properly based on this generation) as low margin. It would really require a massive restructuring. Not that Sony shouldn't be considering that. Kind of reminds me of what the big players on console did this generation to weed out competition in "their space" by bleeding like crazy.
PS4 doesn't need iPhone gamers in order to avoid falling flat.
The 'traditional' market may not be growing but it is still large enough to deserve focus and attention and a focussed product. It is still Sony's base. There is nothing wrong with Sony addressing that base and giving it dedicated attention. And I think Tretton is right to rebuff criticism aimed in that direction. It was by-and-large Playstation's traditional audience tuning in on Wednesday, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with Sony speaking to them.
There is also a growing broader market that, indeed, is unlikely to be interested in spending 400 on a games box. Unlikely to be interested in PS4's approach. And that's fine too.
And that's why Sony is investing as much in a new platform to target those gamers as they likely have to date in PS4.
It is Tretton's fault if he let's journalists get away from an interview unaware of the latter, but it's not his fault if they ignored that part of their presentation on Wednesday.
Sony has been top 10 R&D tech companies in the world for the past decade. That did not stop or start with PS4. If anything, they already said due to architecture they chose, they invested far less since they did not have to build their own fabs for it.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Just because they aimed their debut showing at 'true' gamers, that doesn't mean the platform is. It's just as media/social/casual-focused as MS' next system. Both are going to aim at the entire spectrum.
partyphone
Banned
Actually I can. Everything is competing for our time and entertainment dollars.
That's false.
I'm going to sound like a stuck record here, since I'm banging on about this all over the place, but: How profitable it is isn't just dependent on the size of the audience, it's also dependent on the amount spent on development. PS4's best chance strikes me as - slightly ironically - mimicking the 3DS in Japan: Presenting itself as the logical direct upgrade path for users of both current-gen HD consoles, and being a stable development platform by tapping into both userbases.
Trouble is, I'm sure that sort of strategy is on Microsoft's mind as well, and if they get a similar split to this gen, I'm not sure it'll work out too well for *either* of them.
I'm betting their hook is going to be the Kinect 2 and that augmented reality projector. That's going to be an experience you can't get on other consoles.
I would not be surprised that within 1 year, Sony's investment in Gaikai far outpaces what they invested in PS4 hardware so far.
And Gaikai is game changer.
Cheaper. That's all I can say, really. Otherwise what I'm asking Sony to do is to think of something unexpected, that comes out of left field and really grows their market. By definition, I don't know what the unexpected thing is, but I'm reasonably confident the PS4 isn't it.
It definitely would require a massive restructuring, and if Sony were a healthy company I wouldn't recommend it. But they aren't.
Again, not saying this massive overhaul necessarily needs to take place in gaming; but it has to be somewhere and I'm not seeing it in their TV or electronic markets. Maybe their portable market will really take a risk and hit a home run? Maybe. It's possible. But I'm not counting on it.
After watching Wednesday's announcement, the title of this thread surprised me. What they showed seemed pretty, but mostly seemed to be focused on a social mess. Every single social feature they talked about made me care less about the console. The problem is that when you take away the social features, all that's left are the pretty graphics that I can already get on my PC. I fit their definition of "true gamer" but I'm not interested at all at this point.
Sony, MS, EA, Activision and Ubisoft all gun for the same software market. To put it into your terms they'd be summer action blockbusters. Think of what Hollywood would be like without romantic comedies. These movies IIRC are more more profitable and absolutely necessary for the health of the companies that put them out.
Can Crusher
Banned
They have a lot to gain because that market exists and it's a pretty big one. Steam has like 60 million users for example and I believe that anyone who uses Steam is a "true gamer" because casuals don't even know what steam is.
That's a really good question. But at this point I don't think anyone knows the answer.
I think I was about 7-8 when I got into console gaming with a NES. What do 7-8 year olds do with their free time these days?
Manmademan
Member
sort of. it was the cheapest DVD player when it launched...in JAPAN.
By the time it launched stateside, it was as expensive as a good mid to high end model from sony/panasonic/samsung/etc. Prices on these dropped pretty fast though, so within 6 months or a year most DVD players were half the cost of a PS2.
still, a device that could play DVDs *and* play games for not much more was a hell of a draw for that first year.
Personally I'm not really convinced that they are betting the farm on gamers, though with this first peak at the device they are trying to regain lost gamers - especially in the U.S. I think as the thing is fully revealed you'll see it every bit as well rounded as other such devices in terms of non-traditional gamer games as well as non game applications.
The whole spiel by kohler I found especially weird complaining that whilst Sony hardly mentioned entertainment (just a single slide of streaming services) he was getting emails from Microsoft trumpeting the fact that you could watch the Oscars on Xbox (do people still watch/care about the oscars?). It seemed clear to me that Sony will provide details on that latter and Sony was just focusing on the games aspect (along with overall vision) that day. I'm not really sure in those circumstances spending time showing off more streaming media apps would be good use of their time.
Add to that it seems to me that most US people I know just use Netflix + Hulu + Amazon + a sport app if they are into that. They don't actually care about the plethora of other media apps generally. That trio covers most of what they want, unless they have specific interests like anime.
The whole spiel by kohler I found especially weird complaining that whilst Sony hardly mentioned entertainment (just a single slide of streaming services) he was getting emails from Microsoft trumpeting the fact that you could watch the Oscars on Xbox (do people still watch/care about the oscars?). It seemed clear to me that Sony will provide details on that latter and Sony was just focusing on the games aspect (along with overall vision) that day. I'm not really sure in those circumstances spending time showing off more streaming media apps would be good use of their time.
Add to that it seems to me that most US people I know just use Netflix + Hulu + Amazon + a sport app if they are into that. They don't actually care about the plethora of other media apps generally. That trio covers most of what they want, unless they have specific interests like anime.
No I think this is the best decision they could make. You get the "true" gamers in as early adopters and get them talking about the console. Then once you have that base you go after the casual market. The casual market has smart phones, tablets, ect. These consoles need to aim for what those just can't achieve....a true gaming experience.
Your interesting tag notwithstanding, you're right. And we don't even know the price. Sony may go with a subsidized model like MS.
If their Gaikai acquisition didn't make this clear, their mention of streaming PS3 games should. Sony could become gaming's Netflix for all we know, and while limiting that to one box initially doesn't seem like the best strategy, it does suggest we may see it integrated into the whole Sony ecosystem at some point.
Aren't tablets $500? Hasn't the 3DS turned out to be a success? I'm not sure where all this derision is coming from.
Nestunt
Member
gamers are the ones that start the word of mouth needed to diferentiate the sales of gaming consoles
every gaming company should also target first the gamers
those are the ones who will buy their first and expensive skus
after you have secured that install base and the word of mouth has started to spread to the non gamers by their gamer friends, then you shift your marketing strategy
so simple
first and foremost is a dedicated device
they absolutely HAVE to attract the consumers who want to do with that product what it is dedicated to
this is transversal to every product
every gaming company should also target first the gamers
those are the ones who will buy their first and expensive skus
after you have secured that install base and the word of mouth has started to spread to the non gamers by their gamer friends, then you shift your marketing strategy
so simple
first and foremost is a dedicated device
they absolutely HAVE to attract the consumers who want to do with that product what it is dedicated to
this is transversal to every product
I think we need to qualify what PC F2P gaming is anymore before we condemn the PS4 for not supporting it. Seems like the PC F2P market is rapidly changing each day.
I believe it is a safe bet Planetside 2 will be there at launch. Possibly pre installed on every PS4. More F2P games will follow. If we are talking casual F2P games, well, good luck. Not even those are guaranteed to be a success.
If I were Sony, I'd place my bet on F2P with MOBA games. If PS4 could establish itself as -the- MOBA console it would probably do more to boost hardware sales than almost anything else. Especially with the live streaming built into the PS4. Anyone could easily set up a match for people worldwide to spectate.
I believe it is a safe bet Planetside 2 will be there at launch. Possibly pre installed on every PS4. More F2P games will follow. If we are talking casual F2P games, well, good luck. Not even those are guaranteed to be a success.
If I were Sony, I'd place my bet on F2P with MOBA games. If PS4 could establish itself as -the- MOBA console it would probably do more to boost hardware sales than almost anything else. Especially with the live streaming built into the PS4. Anyone could easily set up a match for people worldwide to spectate.
Ingueferroque
Banned
This is NeoGaf, of course we want them to focus on us.
AranhaHunter
Banned
I agree about the vita strategy, the problem with the vita (and 3DS for that matter) was that it also struggled with the tablet/smartphone in the west, obviously the vita more so. This won't affect consoles as much I don't think. And in JP vita doesn't really have any JP centric games until next week/month. If PS4 has those, it should be ok there as well.
It depends on the price, I'm thinking any console >$400 will do terribly. Probably worse than the $599 PS3. People always talk about how tablets and smartphones have hurt handheld gaming, but I think those things have also hurt home console gaming.
Nintendo have made some mistakes with the Wii U and 3DS, but when you're struggling to sell after having two of the most popular consoles ever(DS and Wii), that spells trouble for the traditional gaming market.
Nintendo have made some mistakes with the Wii U and 3DS, but when you're struggling to sell after having two of the most popular consoles ever(DS and Wii), that spells trouble for the traditional gaming market.
Omnistalgic
Member
I think PS4 will have plenty of content for all types of gamers...Everyone is questioning how open the platform will be to Indy's, but how easy is it to port something from PC right over to PS4 now?
As long as Sony caters to fans in some way with some backwards compatibility stuff, the games will be there.
I love Sony's vision, and there focus on gamers I think is stronger than MS (we'll see) and that could pay off especially the first year.
I believe the only thing Sony has to do, is make a subscription service for PS+ signups and offer PS4 at $200 with 2 year sub. and $400 without a subscription. That is just a great way for loyal fans to not just IMPULSE buy, but to tell everyone they know to impulse buy as well....You will quickly see PS4 jump to 2-3 million units I think with a model like that.
Smart Phones sells this way because you literally pay up front a fraction of the cost. It needs to be brought to consoles now, that's the only hurdle Sony has to overcome, because it seems like a big move, when it's really just logical and IMO kinda expected. People are not going to spend $500 for consoles anymore, that's only reserved for tablets now, and you can only have one "it" thing at a time.
As long as Sony caters to fans in some way with some backwards compatibility stuff, the games will be there.
I love Sony's vision, and there focus on gamers I think is stronger than MS (we'll see) and that could pay off especially the first year.
I believe the only thing Sony has to do, is make a subscription service for PS+ signups and offer PS4 at $200 with 2 year sub. and $400 without a subscription. That is just a great way for loyal fans to not just IMPULSE buy, but to tell everyone they know to impulse buy as well....You will quickly see PS4 jump to 2-3 million units I think with a model like that.
Smart Phones sells this way because you literally pay up front a fraction of the cost. It needs to be brought to consoles now, that's the only hurdle Sony has to overcome, because it seems like a big move, when it's really just logical and IMO kinda expected. People are not going to spend $500 for consoles anymore, that's only reserved for tablets now, and you can only have one "it" thing at a time.
blitzcloud
Banned
if there's a market for high end graphic cards, why wouldn't there be for "true gamer" consoles?
Considering Wii U's failure to capture the casual/non gamer market AGAIN, I think Sony is fine. Besides, most of the casual market doesn't even come to play until the price is right. The PS2 was selling significantly more when the game library was established, and the price was right.
michaelius
Banned
Completly diffrent scenario - tablets can deliver games similar to most of casual oriented DS titles and they are "good enought" for most users to provide short distraction.
The only competion traditional console has for TV is pc.
Wyndstryker
Member
TBH I would hate to be a publisher right now. The gaming market is in a shifting state and there are many viable directions to go, yet none are very clear on which is the best direction to go. Consoles, Mobile, Tablets, PC, casual, core, f2p, whatever, there is profitability but each direction require such drastic changes in strategy that any attempts to appeal to a larger group becomes a gamble.
Yes. What does this have to do with the price of tea in China? I'm saying a platform has significantly better chance of capturing a new market if it's cheaper.
It's a tepid success. It is doing fine, but it's not doing explosively well.
And "explosively well" is what most analysts feel Sony needs. I'm not even talking about losses: Low profit margins don't cut it for a company in Sony's position.
I'll repeat it one more time, because I do feel this idea is important: the "core" market is safe and reliable, but also not likely to show much growth or very significant profits. For a company in Sony's position -- a company slowly but consistently bleeding -- staying the course is not perceived as a good idea.
Sony has to make a move, in other words. And sticking with safe, reliable markets is not what most people consider "making a move."
They are being very smart about the upcoming generation. They're focusing on the core gamer which is the most likely to buy the PS4 at launch. On top of that, they are trying to capitalize on the video game streaming crowd which is going to be in essence free advertisement for the PS4. If the majority of games on Twitch are streaming through PS4, I think that may give it a big lead in the coming generation. This is assuming that it does indeed have the capability to stream to Twitch and not solely a proprietary service.
partyphone
Banned
I think people lose perspective on the size of the gaming market.
In a bad quarter PCs sell 90 million units.
Of course people are arguing over whether tablets should count as PCs in which case PC sales are actually up this year.
In a bad quarter PCs sell 90 million units.
Of course people are arguing over whether tablets should count as PCs in which case PC sales are actually up this year.
The game market isn't "changing", it's expanding. In this case, "In with the new" does not automatically equate to "out with the old". The big rush of Facebook and mobile gaming has no real impact on "core" console or PC gaming, they're two completely different demographics. I don't think any of us feel that Plants vs Zombies or Farmville are taking the place of Call of Duty or Halo or Uncharted.
Herb Alpert
Banned
From what I can see around me, they play video games. But They want tablets, cause tablets are cool. Consoles are not.
This can change of course, but that's today's trend it seems, and I honestly think it's a shame.
Also it affects home consoles too, cause kids mostly play tablets at home.
You point out something that I feel is one of the true causes of decline in the big budget game market. You are quite right about them all being summer action blockbusters. And that's the problem. These companies no longer are willing to take risks and put big money and marketing into new titles and genres. All we keep getting are Call of Duty 43 and the like. I think there is a big market out there that isn't being catered to.
The Sims is one such success. It's shown there is a huge market for the 'romantic comedy blockbuster' games. And if there was a company out there that made one tailored for a high end system that actually had real thought and design put into it I'm betting it would sell.
Puppet Shadow
Member
Minecraft. I'd say 80% of the players I play with on MC servers are 14 and under.