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[QuicheFontaine]

This is mostly a British wet dream very much entertained by the British press. You need to stop fantasising about other countries and start working on your own mess.

Yes, Brexit happened and Trump happened, but that's a superficial look at the world. That's also mostly because the press in both countries is a (sad) joke since long time already and there is some alternate post-apocalyptic reality in which a lot of people live.

Austria, who was the most likely to get an extremist president didn't. Mostly thanks to Brexit who showed what voting without thinking about consequences brings. For Italy there is no realistic scenario in which Italy will get out of EU, even if there are early elections. France won't have a Le Pen president.

The only danger here is the economic disaster in Italy due to instability. In which case EU won't even matter that much, given the implications for the world economy. But on the other hand political instability is the normal situation in Italy since after the war. Most probably tomorrow there will be a new PM and things will be back to normal.

Oooh, bookmarked!

 

[azyless]

SPOILER : Fillon wins

B-But polls have been wrong before !

Spoiler

/s

These posts about Le Pen being president are starting to sound like people actually want it to happen.

 

[SamVimes]

The crazy thing is that if indeed the referendum was about Renzi he actually won. 40% with everyone else against him

 

[2+2=5]

The crazy thing is that if indeed the referendum was about Renzi he actually won. 40% with everyone else against him

People is more intelligent than that and politicians and journalist don't seem to understand it, Brexit and Trump proved it, people look at their own needs not at political games, only those who have a strong political faith voted for/against Renzi, all the rest voted for the referendum itself imo.

 

[UrbanRats]

People is more intelligent that that and politicians and journalist don't seem to understand it, Brexit and Trump proved it, people look at their own needs not at political games, only those who have a strong political faith voted for/against Renzi, all the rest voted for the referendum itself imo.

Wait what did Brexit and Trump prove? Certainly not people voting in their personal interest.
And certainly not people being smart.

 

[El Topo]

These posts about Le Pen being president are starting to sound like people actually want it to happen.

I sometimes feel as if *some* push this idea around to make the recent events in the UK/US look less embarassing maybe? To make them feel a bit better? Nothing wrong with keeping us alert anyway, but people e.g. fantasizing about Germany getting a far right government are delusional.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

This is mostly a British wet dream very much entertained by the British press. You need to stop fantasising about other countries and start working on your own mess.

Yes, Brexit happened and Trump happened, but that's a superficial look at the world. That's also mostly because the press in both countries is a (sad) joke since long time already and there is some alternate post-apocalyptic reality in which a lot of people live.

Austria, who was the most likely to get an extremist president didn't. Mostly thanks to Brexit who showed what voting without thinking about consequences brings. For Italy there is no realistic scenario in which Italy will get out of EU, even if there are early elections. France won't have a Le Pen president.

The only danger here is the economic disaster in Italy due to instability. In which case EU won't even matter that much, given the implications for the world economy. But on the other hand political instability is the normal situation in Italy since after the war. Most probably tomorrow there will be a new PM and things will be back to normal.

Good post.

 

[Xando]

People is more intelligent than that and politicians and journalist don't seem to understand it, Brexit and Trump proved it, people look at their own needs not at political games, only those who have a strong political faith voted for/against Renzi, all the rest voted for the referendum itself imo.

I'd like to hear your argumentation on how Brexit is helping the people

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Wait what did Brexit and Trump prove? Certainly not people voting in their personal interest.
And certainly not people being smart.

Why would tens of millions of people vote against what they perceive to be their personal interest? And how would remaining in the EU or voting for Hillary Clinton be smart?

The former is a very bad idea and I just wasted my time, gas, and so on voting for Hillary back on Nov 8.

 

[SamVimes]

Why would tens of millions of people vote against what they perceive to be their personal interest? And how would remaining in the EU or voting for Hillary Clinton be smart?

The former is a very bad idea and I just wasted my time voting for Hillary back on Nov 8.

Because they're racist morons?

 

[2+2=5]

Wait what did Brexit and Trump prove? Certainly not people voting in their personal interest.
And certainly not people being smart.

I'd like to hear your argumentation on how Brexit is helping the people

I'm not saying that brexit and trump are good choices(but we can't even say they are bad until we see them in action), i'm just saying that if people were listening to parties and journalists people would have voted differently.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

Euro needs to be fixed regardless of how Italy goes, it's a broken system that has punished mediterranean countries too much (we also have our faults though). If anything, we would make the "collapse" faster, but it will happen anyway.

Well the only way to fix it would fiscal transfers of some form between countries.
That will not happen in my lifetime.
The euro was an awful idea.

 

[SamVimes]

I'm not saying that brexit and trump are good choices(but we can't even say they are bad until we see them in action), i'm just saying that if people were listening to parties and journalists people would have voted differently.

There's a poll showing that most people were voting against or for the government this government.

 

[oti]

I sometimes feel as if *some* push this idea around to make the recent events in the UK/US look less embarassing maybe? To make them feel a bit better? Nothing wrong with keeping us alert anyway, but people e.g. fantasizing about Germany getting a far right government are delusional.

No! The EU is done! Better to get off the sinking ship! It's Queen Merkel's fault! I never liked Toblerone anyway!

 

[2+2=5]

There's a poll showing that most people were voting against or for the government this government.

The same polls that said that Clinton and remain would have won? People do what's the best for them, maybe they can pick the wrong choice or method but that's what they do, if people really voted against Renzi isn't because parties said them to do this way but because they thought it was the best thing to do.

 

[Xando]

I'm not saying that brexit and trump are good choices(but we can't even say they are bad until we see them in action), i'm just saying that if people were listening to parties and journalists people would have voted differently.

Between the pound losing value, the goverment announcing more austerity and hate crime numbers exploding i'd like to see what good brexit is gonna do other than satisfying the british press claiming they took back control and showed it to these dirty EU foreigners.

And that is before the actual process is even started

 

[2+2=5]

Between the pound losing value, the goverment announcing more austerity and hate crime numbers exploding i'd like to see what good brexit is gonna do other than satisfying the british press claiming they took back control and showed it to these dirty foreigners.

It would be foolish to judge something like brexit in the immediate... well actually even before it is even in execution! It's the kind of things you can see its effect only in the long term, we can seriously judge brexit only some years after its execution.

 

[Playsage]

People is more intelligent than that and politicians and journalist don't seem to understand it, Brexit and Trump proved it, people look at their own needs not at political games, only those who have a strong political faith voted for/against Renzi, all the rest voted for the referendum itself imo.

The affluenza percentage pretty much says the opposite.
Those are election's numbers

 

[UrbanRats]

Why would tens of millions of people vote against what they perceive to be their personal interest?

Because that's the bread and butter of populism, and especially when using the "immigrants" scarecrow.
People like to hear simple solutions to their (complex) problems, and will vote accordingly to whoever sings that tune, be it blame the "establishment" or the immigrants or whatever other easy target you happen to have.

And how would remaining in the EU or voting for Hillary Clinton be smart?

The vote to remain in Europe being better than Brexit is self evident in the trash-fire that Brexit has caused so far, and they haven't even implemented it yet.
But i guess they can keep try to beg Ireland for that EU money.
And Trump has been in office what, 0 days officially? And already we've seen his great plans for climate change, not to mention the foreign policy gaffes.

It would be foolish to judge something like brexit in the immediate... well actually even before it is even in execution! It's the kind of things you can see its effect only in the long term, we can seriously judge brexit only some years after its execution.

Yes, probably the reason why they had to fill the Leave campaign with lies and the two major proponents jumped ship IMMEDIATELY after they caused the it to sink.

 

[El Topo]

.

I think the keyword in the post you quoted is "perceive". These people didn't vote for Brexit because they simply hate immigrants, they voted for Brexit because of the idea that it would benefit their own lives.
That said, I'm not sure I wholly agree with that. I'm sure more than a few voted for Brexit just to "stick it to the powers that be".

 

[2+2=5]

The affluenza percentage pretty much says the opposite.
Those are election's numbers

Too bad that elections don't have those numbers
Guys don't be fooled by what journalism say, journalist stopped being neutral decades ago, most of them now read and say things as they like, not as they are.

 

[2+2=5]

Yes, probably the reason why they had to fill the Leave campaign with lies and the two major proponents jumped ship IMMEDIATELY after they caused the it to sink.

Questionable campain and choices have nothing to do with the good/bad quality of brexit's effects in people's life.

 

[UrbanRats]

I think the keyword in the post you quoted is "perceive". These people didn't vote for Brexit because they simply hate immigrants, they voted for Brexit because of the idea that it would benefit their own lives.
That said, I'm not sure I wholly agree with that. I'm sure more than a few voted for Brexit just to "stick it to the powers that be".

Well since the original post i quoted posited that people were smarter than journalists and politicians gave them credit for, i don't see how that could substantiate that.

Questionable campain and choices have nothing to do with the good/bad quality of brexit's effects in people's life.

Dude, you don't trust journalists, you don't trust facts, you don't mind lies to push an agenda.. how do you form your opinions?

 

[El Topo]

Well since the original post i quoted posited that people were smarter than journalists and politicians gave them credit for, i don't see how that could substantiate that.

Yeah, I don't really agree with 2+2 on that. I'm just pointing out that in principle people rarely deliberately vote against their own benefit, they just may have a false perception.

 

[johancruijff]

Meanwhile the_Donald and 4chan are rejoicing for the result

Someone made a celebrative pepe, with a moustache and chest hair

 

[chromatic9]

Thing about Brexit is UK didn't vote in a Le Pen or Trump figure. They were offered a referendum by the one of the two main parties which are pretty much in the middle.

All this fantasizing talk about Germany getting a far right party is a little silly. UK didn't vote in the BNP or UKIP, very far from it. I doubt Germany is about to go far right. What there is though is probably about 35-45% of populations of western European countries have misgivings about the EU and the threat of the eastern border neighbouring the middle east. Brexit going first should maybe curb any floating voter that might have been caught up in a campaign before.

If anything it says to other parties to not offer an EU ref or Euro Currency ref to help your party get re-elected because the votes might just edge it and surprise you depending what issues the country is facing at the time.

What seems to get little to no headlines is the Swiss had a vote recently which again surprised everyone and anti immigration won by a narrow margin and this is still hanging in the air to be sorted out with the Swiss and EU. Another example of offering the public through regular middle ground parties a ref on something.

 

[Eylos]

The thing i learned this year:
Don't trust polls, its hard to the far right Win in france, but not impossible, be cautious.

 

[Alx]

B-But polls have been wrong before !

Spoiler

/s

These posts about Le Pen being president are starting to sound like people actually want it to happen.

Most people watching politics from the sideline are doing it for the drama and schadenfreude. I guess it could also soften the blow of Brexitrump if other countries get in deep shit too.

 

[im_dany]

if people really voted against Renzi isn't because parties said them to do this way but because they thought it was the best thing to do.

You're highly overrating italian electors

 

[Coxy100]

Thing about Brexit is UK didn't vote in a Le Pen or Trump figure. They were offered a referendum by the one of the two main parties which are pretty much in the middle.

All this fantasizing talk about Germany getting a far right party is a little silly. UK didn't vote in the BNP or UKIP, very far from it. I doubt Germany is about to go far right. What there is though is probably about 35-45% of populations of western European countries have misgivings about the EU and the threat of the eastern border neighbouring the middle east. Brexit going first should maybe curb any floating voter that might have been caught up in a campaign before.

If anything it says to other parties to not offer an EU ref or Euro Currency ref to help your party get re-elected because the votes might just edge it and surprise you depending what issues the country is facing at the time.

What seems to get little to no headlines is the Swiss had a vote recently which again surprised everyone and anti immigration won by a narrow margin and this is still hanging in the air to be sorted out with the Swiss and EU. Another example of offering the public through regular middle ground parties a ref on something.

The tories are NOT in the middle mate..

 

[RedSparrows]

Thing about Brexit is UK didn't vote in a Le Pen or Trump figure. They were offered a referendum by the one of the two main parties which are pretty much in the middle.

All this fantasizing talk about Germany getting a far right party is a little silly. UK didn't vote in the BNP or UKIP, very far from it. I doubt Germany is about to go far right. What there is though is probably about 35-45% of populations of western European countries have misgivings about the EU and the threat of the eastern border neighbouring the middle east. Brexit going first should maybe curb any floating voter that might have been caught up in a campaign before.

If anything it says to other parties to not offer an EU ref or Euro Currency ref to help your party get re-elected because the votes might just edge it and surprise you depending what issues the country is facing at the time.

What seems to get little to no headlines is the Swiss had a vote recently which again surprised everyone and anti immigration won by a narrow margin and this is still hanging in the air to be sorted out with the Swiss and EU. Another example of offering the public through regular middle ground parties a ref on something.

THIS. THIS. THIS. This bears repeating. No doubt most of Leave would vote Tory through UKIP, and the Tories aren't exactly my cup of tea, but the narrative of Le Pen, Farage et al is just that - a narrative, one we have to bloody challenge.

 

[KingSnake]

The thing i learned this year:
Don't trust polls, its hard to the far right Win in france, but not impossible, be cautious.

You haven't learned in depth though.

Brexit polls have been off by the margin of error. US polls have been pretty close given the number of votes. Austrian polls have been wrong a bit over the margin of error and they have been wrong by overestimating the far right (mostly because they probably underestimated the presence).

Le Pen in France is currently at around 30% for the second round. Do you realise how much it means for a poll to be wrong by 21%?

 

[ittoryu]

Thing about Brexit is UK didn't vote in a Le Pen or Trump figure. They were offered a referendum by the one of the two main parties which are pretty much in the middle.

All this fantasizing talk about Germany getting a far right party is a little silly. UK didn't vote in the BNP or UKIP, very far from it. I doubt Germany is about to go far right. What there is though is probably about 35-45% of populations of western European countries have misgivings about the EU and the threat of the eastern border neighbouring the middle east. Brexit going first should maybe curb any floating voter that might have been caught up in a campaign before.

If anything it says to other parties to not offer an EU ref or Euro Currency ref to help your party get re-elected because the votes might just edge it and surprise you depending what issues the country is facing at the time.

What seems to get little to no headlines is the Swiss had a vote recently which again surprised everyone and anti immigration won by a narrow margin and this is still hanging in the air to be sorted out with the Swiss and EU. Another example of offering the public through regular middle ground parties a ref on something.

Very far from it?
It didn't look like it after the referendum result...

 

[im_dany]

Let's not forget that:

1)Renzi was not elected, he was supposed to do a temporary government for some necessary laws(it was the forth consecutive imposed governement not elected by people)

Well, I missed this earlier.

For those that don't know, in Italy you don't vote for the Prime Minister. You vote for the parliament members, then the president of the republic has to call someone (almost always the secretary of the biggest party in the coalition that "won") and ask him to find the majority in Camera and Senato. If said person and his government successfully gets the "fiducia" in both houses, then it becomes officially the italian government. This is not a given, recent example is Bersani in 2013 that didn't want to have an alliance with Berlusconi and asked M5S for a while, but they kept refusing (they would've lost "votes", they were the pure and honest ones) so Napolitano had to ask Letta to form one (which he did with the right).

When a PM resigns you're not forced to go to elections because of that. Parliament members are supposed to stay for the whole term (called "legislatura"), so the PoR can just ask someone else to form a government (happened with Monti in 2011, which had the majority thanks to Berlusconi's party). But even if the legislatura is not over, the PoR can call elections early.

This system is so dumb that Renzi I was the 4th longest serving government since WW2 and the 8th "ever" (since 1861). source in italian
Can anyone think of a more unstable electoral law? Because I can't.

 

[Gurgelhals]

What seems to get little to no headlines is the Swiss had a vote recently which again surprised everyone and anti immigration won by a narrow margin and this is still hanging in the air to be sorted out with the Swiss and EU. Another example of offering the public through regular middle ground parties a ref on something.

A bit off-topic, but this is all but sorted out. The Swiss parliament has neutered the proposition to the point where they can implement the law without it violating (and thus nullifying) the bespoke treaties that Switzerland has with the EU (which gives us access to the single market, etc.). These treaties, by the way, still have the broad support of the voting populace, so when it comes down to the question of whether we a) want to restrict immigration from EU countries and cancel these treaties or b) we want to hold on to these treaties and accept freedom of movement from and to EU countries, the result would clearly be in favor of the latter. In fact, the far-right only managed to win that original vote in 2014 (and by an extremely close margin at that) by blatantly lying that restricting immigration would not jeopardize our EU treaties at all. Now that it's obvious to everybody that this has been a lie, they have started to show their true colors by demanding that we terminate our treaties with the EU - which is just empty political posturing, because they know that they do not have the numbers among the voting populace to actually go through with this.

 

[Eylos]

You haven't learned in depth though.

Brexit polls have been off by the margin of error. US polls have been pretty close given the number of votes. Austrian polls have been wrong a bit over the margin of error and they have been wrong by overestimating the far right (mostly because they probably underestimated the presence).

Le Pen in France is currently at around 30% for the second round. Do you realise how much it means for a poll to be wrong by 21%?

I know, but this can change on the presidential run :/, just saying to be precautious, and ask french friends to vote

 

[The_White_Rose]

So what are the odds of a far right movement winning the elections and holding a referendum on an Italy exit of the EU?

 

[im_dany]

So what are the odds of a far right movement winning the elections and holding a referendum on an Italy exit of the EU?

Basically noone can win the elections right now, and they'll never make an alliance with anyone else.

M5S should be around 30% right now, and they both don't want to help another government nor want to govern themselves.
PD same situation, maybe slightly less, they wanted to work with M5S at the previous ones but they behaved like little children so it won't happen.
Lega Nord has much less and they'll likely have to make a "center right" coalition with Berlusconi and Alfano (which counts less than 0 right now but you never know) to reach atleast 25%.

Worse of all, right now we'd have two different election laws for the two houses. "Frankenstein Italicum" for Camera and... well, nothing for Senate since Italicum can't work without what was in the Constitutional Reform. Populists want a proportional so nothing can work again and they can get higher percentages after the usual 1-2 years of a superpartes government like Berlusconi did with Monti.

 

[norinrad]

This is mostly a British wet dream very much entertained by the British press. You need to stop fantasising about other countries and start working on your own mess.

Yes, Brexit happened and Trump happened, but that's a superficial look at the world. That's also mostly because the press in both countries is a (sad) joke since long time already and there is some alternate post-apocalyptic reality in which a lot of people live.

Austria, who was the most likely to get an extremist president didn't. Mostly thanks to Brexit who showed what voting without thinking about consequences brings. For Italy there is no realistic scenario in which Italy will get out of EU, even if there are early elections. France won't have a Le Pen president.

The only danger here is the economic disaster in Italy due to instability. In which case EU won't even matter that much, given the implications for the world economy. But on the other hand political instability is the normal situation in Italy since after the war. Most probably tomorrow there will be a new PM and things will be back to normal.

Pretty bold statement there, with over 9 million people unemployed in France who could easily blame their troubles on foreigners while seeing Le Pen as the candidate to bring their jobs back. It could easily go to her.

 

[Alx]

Pretty bold statement there, with over 9 million people unemployed in France who could easily blame their troubles on foreigners while seeing Le Pen as the candidate to bring their jobs back. It could easily go to her.

It's still a possibility, but not "easily". I mean the Front National isn't an unknown value, it's been running on the same program and audience (and leading Le Pen family) for decades. Unemployment has always been high in France, and blaming it on foreigners is hardly a new idea.
The far-right is undoubtedly on the rise (14 years ago it was a big surprise that they reach second round, today everybody expects it), but it is a slow phenomenon, not an exploding trend. And not something politicians and voters are unfamiliar with.

 

[KingSnake]

Oooh, bookmarked!

Pretty bold statement there, with over 9 million people unemployed in France who could easily blame their troubles on foreigners while seeing Le Pen as the candidate to bring their jobs back. It could easily go to her.

She will lose by at least 20% in the second round. That's the pessimistic scenario.

 

[jufonuk]

I'm not saying that brexit and trump are good choices(but we can't even say they are bad until we see them in action), i'm just saying that if people were listening to parties and journalists people would have voted differently.

People listened to the papers and to anyone who told them what they wanted to hear it was fear lies and fake promises that sold brexit and trump.

And since Brexit I'm dreading another EU country wanting to leave instead of collapsing it they should all vote to reform and sort it out. This is where Brexit baffles me instead of saying we don't agree with such and such so we will ask to change it . We are now trying to leave in a stupid way. I'm not hoping others will follow as it is bloddy stupid.

 

[DevilFox]

He may be a bit harsh in his judgments but he's really anti-bullshit, and doesn't have a fixed side. I like him tbh.

Harsh indeed, lol. And oh boys if he's right again. We can't just pretend everything is fine when it comes to mainstream media or the regulator for the communication agencies (our agcom) because it's not. And this is just one out of a hundred things that do not work here. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing there is one and accusing of fascism everything outside of DP is not going to give us a solution.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

She will lose by at least 20% in the second round. That's the pessimistic scenario.

lol, I'd better bookmark this too. Making bold statements like this hasn't worked out well this year, but go ahead.

Here's my prediction: there will be movement in the polls towards Le Pen between now and May.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

She will lose by at least 20% in the second round. That's the pessimistic scenario.

SPOILER : Fillon wins

B-But polls have been wrong before !

Spoiler

/s

These posts about Le Pen being president are starting to sound like people actually want it to happen.

OK. Have it your way,
But don't blame anyone else if people think it's a done deal,don't show up again and Le Pen wins.

 

[KingSnake]

Here's my prediction: there will be movement in the polls towards Le Pen between now and May.

Why? The refugee crisis is past its peak, there have been already horrible terror attacks happening in France, UK wouldn't have even started her wonderful and prosperous new empire by then, so what do you think it will trigger any movement?

OK. Have it your way,
But don't blame anyone else if people think it's a done deal,don't show up again and Le Pen wins.

Historically the presidential elections in France have a very high turnout. French people seem to not be very complacent about these.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

Why? The refugee crisis is past its peak, there have been already horrible terror attacks happening in France, UK wouldn't have even started her wonderful and prosperous new empire by then, so what do you think it will trigger any movement?

If the Turkey deal collapses (very likely) the refugee crisis will restart.

Historically the presidential elections in France have a very high turnout. French people seem to not be very complacent about these.

I am not sure the left will enthusiastically run out and vote for Fillon though. Especially if everyone says he is a done deal.

 

[jufonuk]

OK. Have it your way,
But don't blame anyone else if people think it's a done deal,don't show up again and Le Pen wins.

Sorry to butt in, I'm in agreement with you .

this was another factor in leave and trump winning . People assumed it wouldn't happen didn't bother to vote or voted leave because they thought it wouldn't count ?!?!? Even talk of Mi5 rigging votes ?

But leave won.

If anything do t be complacent, every vote counts
If you don't vote you have no right to complain after.

 

[Alx]

I am not sure the left will enthusiastically run out and vote for Fillon though. Especially if everyone says he is a done deal.

They did in 2002, when it was Chirac vs Le Pen. Reluctantly, and some stayed home (the turnout was slightly lower than usual on second round), but Chirac won with 80%, as expected by the polls.
Also "refugee crisis" isn't that much of an issue in France, since most of them seem to want to go to Germany or Sweden.

 

[im_dany]

Harsh indeed, lol. And oh boys if he's right again. We can't just pretend everything is fine when it comes to mainstream media or the regulator for the communication agencies (our agcom) because it's not. And this is just one out of a hundred things that do not work here. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing there is one and accusing of fascism everything outside of DP is not going to give us a solution.

I lost all respect for him when he did nothing in that famous 2013 "debate" with Berlusconi with Santoro. He's so blatantly pro M5S too, even if they're making a lot of dumb mistakes (fake signatures, Rome, Sicily, and honestly I'm still mad they didn't work with Bersani in 2013 because "muh bad politicians").

I also think he's mistakenly mixing this No with Brexit and Trump when they have nothing in common. People didn't vote against "the big powers", they didn't vote to defend the Constitution, they didn't vote because we don't elect senators (which we haven't done since 1994). The majority of people yesterday voted for or against Renzi. Not saying this is only our fault, Renzi made this when he said months ago "I either win or resign", and I think he lost it when he didn't actually resign one week earlier saying "vote for the reform, not for me".

But, he's right here in his point. Noone in the media is representing that portion of population that don't want globalism, liberism or such. The media need to understand that the right exists, and you can't just label all of them as racists and populists. Demonizing the political opponent will only make them stronger, when the only thing they need is explaining why voting for Lega or M5S is a dumb move. And hell, that's supposed to be an easy job.