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[[Nintex]]

Goldman Sachs and other big investment banks from the US are waging war on the euro. And the US rating agencies are playing the dirty game too. Not saying they are the cause of the crisis, but they are pooring gasoline on the flames.
If the euro fails they make hundreds of billions when the credit default swaps are triggered.

Goldman Sachs and others are going to be in the middle of it when a country that has the eight largest economy in the world(Italy) defaults. Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, Ireland and Greece are soon to follow in such an event. After that half the Eurozone is bankrupt and Europe drags the world including Goldman and China along with it.

The germans already foots half the bill of the European bail out fund. The Netherlands, France and other states can't bend their budgets further to fork over more money. If they can't fill up the ESFF with a trillion Euro, they certainly can't collect 2 trillion Euro to save Italy on a short notice. No one expected Italy's interest rates to hit 7% or higher this soon.

 

[Ether_Snake]

How long before the US has to bail out its own banks, again?

 

[lastendconductor]

Why are some people taking the OP opinion like granted? the eurozone is not collapsing this week.

 

[Wazzim]

This is the most pathetic post I've seen in a while.

As much as I dislike your goverment I don't wish any ill on the Moroccan people. Quite the contrary, since the betterment of the country would lead to less immigration and more political progress. But hey, keep chugging on the hatorade, that sure has worked beautiful so far.

I agree, I think it's just the media making/trying to make the citizens of Spain and Morocco hate on each other. My parents come from Morocco and all you can see in the country is close cooperation with Spanish companies. Even the governments work together no matter how much some parties want to make it look otherwise (Spain defending Morocco in the UN as per example).

 

[forknknife]

Sorry poisonelf, but Greece made its own bed by endorsing ridiculously corrupt officials that destroyed your economy through vast networks of clientelism and plain old greed. You fully knew that your system was corrupt to the bone, yet you continued to vote for the same brand of thieves while a significant part of the population was pilfering the country through minor fraud.

You could have revolted, pushed for change when there was an opportunity, but you didn't. The Greek either took part in the sacking or stood passive while everything was going down. And this mentality prevails. Until it is expurgated (and I don't believe for a second that already happened, as first you need to expel pretty much your entire political class), Greece won't change.

The same is also true for Italy and Spain. We had our chances and we wasted them all. The 20th of November Spain will vote a new government. If any of the two main political parties (both worthless and filled with the same old clowns) is elected with enough votes to rule uncontested, it will show that we are still too fucking dumb to see the real source of our problems. Let us burn then.

I think in a democracy, society should be held accountant to what their elected government does only to a reasonable extent. Nobody elects governments so they conspire against themselves, political parties don't include that in their elections manifestos. But in countries like Spain with a corruption-filled two-party system that have almost complete control over the media to brainwash at will... there is little population can do to prevent the type of crisis we are facing.

It's not like the average Jose holds no part of the blame, but really, this crisis has been just a deliberate crime of negligence from politicians that did nothing to regulate the financial markets and, no matter how informed people would have been, the reality was that there were no real options for us. In that situation, of course, people had a false sense of security and did very stupid investments, but they sure didn't have their governments doing anything to prevent this from happening.

Now it's finally done and, thankfully, it seems like at least the young generations are in their majority going to learn their lesson and think twice when they make their vote. It's going to be very difficult to get things done still because we carry too much baggage and, specially in Spain, our inner problems and identity crisis keeps us from solving the bigger issues.

As I said, in my opinion, this has been a crime and I think we will not come out of this crisis without convicting those who allowed this mess to happen and make them pay every penny. It will be really difficult to make this happen, but only if we get the money back we will get the power back too and only with that we can really make any meaningful change. If we just regulate, rise some taxes to the rich and wait nothing is going to happen. They will make sure that at the end of the day they keep their status quo like nothing happened.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

Why are some people taking the OP opinion like granted? the eurozone is not collapsing this week.

Where are all the posts saying it will?

 

[forknknife]

Let me tell, as a fellow Spaniard, that I think I understand you and I'm with you here. For individuals to change how the society that surrounds them works is very hard. When you're a hard working person trying to stay afloat every passing day, how can you fight against the decisions your supposed elite of politicians take that ruin your country at a high scale that end up ruining your own little business at a lower scale?. How can you feel responsible for the fuck ups the higher ups make to your country that will doom your children and the children of your children to a debt slavery, when your day to day routine is already hard enough?.

I know plenty of hard working people. And our lives will be fucked soon (if that EURO-breaking rumor ends up being true) just for shit our PoS politicians have made. I didn't vote for the current government, I didn't put them where they are, but I will have to pay for their mismanagements. It's infuriating. But if indeed happen, I totally expect that here the media blame Germany and France for it, and not our pitiful political class. The guy who said that nationalism will be on the rise nailed it, it will happen. It's the perfect scapegoat.

I am angry at our current political class as they're the main culprits of Spain's current sorry state. Ones for being the worst and most imbecile people to ever rule a nation, and the opposition for letting them fuck everything without doing anything. Hopefully the rest of my fellow countryman have learned the lesson and won't elect shit politicians for a while.

While I agree that a nationalistic sentiment while probably spread (although not Spanish, perse, but also Catalan, Vasque...., which will further add to our problems), if the EU really goes to shit I am sure most of the people will put the blame mostly on Zapatero's government. The PP will try to hide as much as possible their relation with this crisis, as they always do, and will back that up with "facts" such as "when we were governing we grew so much and look at what the socialists did then, THEY DESTROYED EUROPE!!!1".

And, well, a lot of people will stupidly agree with this opinion, sadly, at least the huge center-right wing mid and older generations, which are the ones with the most influence in the elections.

The socialist party is going to be fucked for a long long time in Spain. If you saw the debate between Rajoy and Rubalcaba, it was just miserable, it was obvious to me that the socialists are going to do a shit job in the opposition because they are part of the problem and they cannot set any kind of example to the PP.

I really really hope that other political options start gaining parliamentary representation and that we give a big scare to the main parties in these next elections of how tired people are of their bullshit. Only then they might start to really look for our interests.

Bad news for me is I cannot vote from the Netherlands, I was just told in a letter, because it seems like I was late to arrange it (bullshit)

 

[teh_pwn]

Double dip recession, just in time for the holidays.

 

[forknknife]

How long before the US has to bail out its own banks, again?

Well, what happened finally to that piece of news about BoA moving a trillion of dollars in european derivatives to their savings banking side? (or something like that). It was like doomsday here in GAF for a couple days and then nothing happened. Is that still going on or what?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Sorry poisonelf, but Greece made its own bed by endorsing ridiculously corrupt officials that destroyed your economy through vast networks of clientelism and plain old greed. You fully knew that your system was corrupt to the bone, yet you continued to vote for the same brand of thieves while a significant part of the population was pilfering the country through minor fraud.

You could have revolted, pushed for change when there was an opportunity, but you didn't. The Greek either took part in the sacking or stood passive while everything was going down. And this mentality prevails. Until it is expurgated (and I don't believe for a second that already happened, as first you need to expel pretty much your entire political class), Greece won't change.

The same is also true for Italy and Spain. We had our chances and we wasted them all. The 20th of November Spain will vote a new government. If any of the two main political parties (both worthless and filled with the same old clowns) is elected with enough votes to rule uncontested, it will show that we are still too fucking dumb to see the real source of our problems. Let us burn then.

What's the other options for Spain, IU a communist party? UPyD a party formed by a renegade of one of the main 2 political factions?

Or we should vote one of the anarchy parties?. It's about voting the lesser evil, not about some people with no experience and just a few general ideas of what they want...

Of couse it won't matter, since PP will win, and that's a formula for disaster, you'll see.

 

[Funky Papa]

What's the other options for Spain, IU a communist party? UPyD a party formed by a renegade of one of the main 2 political factions?

Or we should vote one of the anarchy parties?. It's about voting the lesser evil, not about some people with no experience and just a few general ideas of what they want...

Of couse it won't matter, since PP will win, and that's a formula for disaster, you'll see.

I've been voting for small parties for the last 8 years in hopes of breaking the current duopoly.

I really dislike UPyD (mostly because Rosa Diez is such an opportunistic twat), but I believe that voting for them and IU could be really beneficial. Not because of their policies, but because they would put a lot of stress in both the PP and PSOE if they managed to rise above "occasional partner" status. They'd have to evolve or die.

 

[el retorno]

20N.

Just watch it.

Rajoy is going to be able to do whatever he wants....

 

[el retorno]

I've been voting for small parties for the last 8 years in hopes of breaking the current duopoly.

I really dislike UPyD (mostly because Rosa Diez is such an opportunistic twat), but I believe that voting for them and IU could be really beneficial. Not because of their policies, but because they would put a lot of stress in both the PP and PSOE if they managed to rise above "occasional partner" status. They'd have to evolve or die.

But how would that change things? Unless you like the far left of the IU what does giving them more power accomplish? How does it fix anything? I think things that open up the actual politicians to more criticism (open lists, more democratic parties) would be progress. Its why I like the fact that we in the US vote for our representative instead of voting for a party.

(BTW I´m not spanish but have taken clases on European Politics so I might not be right on everything)

 

[Funky Papa]

But how would that change things? Unless you like the far left of the IU what does giving them more power accomplish? How does it fix anything? I think things that open up the actual politicians to more criticism (open lists, more democratic parties) would be progress. Its why I like the fact that we in the US vote for our representative instead of voting for a party.

(BTW I´m not spanish but have taken clases on European Politics so I might not be right on everything)

It is not about empowering IU but about breaking the two main parties by ending their current duopoly. If they face enough pressure, they will end collapsing evolving into something better (read: embracing and promoting new ideas inside the party instead of bullet points) or simply disbanding into other smaller parties.

At the end of the day, no outcome could be worse than what we have now.

 

[Jarmel]

So if there is a EU split, how would this affect the world economy as a whole? Would the split minimalize the damage or are we still talking global depression?

 

[tokkun]

I thought as you do. Maybe you'll change your mind as I did, maybe not. The constant bombardment for self-guilt in Greece during the first year was even higher in frequency than the satire and 'analysts' in German and Dutch TV smearing Greece.

You know, I have to say...

I listen to the BBC news on my commute each day and it often has interviews with Greek citizens. I regularly talk to several Greeks through my work with CERN. I follow the threads about Greece here and other other message boards. I have never once heard an average Greek citizen take any personal responsibility for Greece's current situation. It is really quite astounding to me.

 

[Acidote]

But how would that change things? Unless you like the far left of the IU what does giving them more power accomplish? How does it fix anything? I think things that open up the actual politicians to more criticism (open lists, more democratic parties) would be progress. Its why I like the fact that we in the US vote for our representative instead of voting for a party.

(BTW I´m not spanish but have taken clases on European Politics so I might not be right on everything)

I want to add one thing to what Funky Papa said. Those minority parties are pushing to make those reforms you might be thinking off (open lists, more democratic primaries, a reform of the D'hondt law/system, etc). Those might be things the gobernment would be forced to accept in turn for their support on other matters.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

It looks like (and I will get confirmation from the BoE later today) that the ECB has engaged in massive asset purchasing this morning. They have bid up BTP prices and sent yields down. We don't yet know if they are printing money to buy these assets or whether they are still dipping into their capital reserves. The former is what is required to make a sustained assault on the market for a few weeks and get BTP yields to around 5%, the latter would see the ECB run out of money in about 10 days and then BTP prices will crash as the markets continue to sell and there is no longer a major buyer.

Quantitative easing will buy the EU 6-8 months to push through political and economic reforms so that once the scheme is over the markets can see a viable plan of action. If they go for QE with no reform then they will become addicted to it and that will just debase the currency and send inflation flying up (Germany's worst nightmare). I expect the German's and the Bundesbank are worried about the latter. Europe has shown very little appetite for any kind of political or economic reform, and handing over a money print to basically irresponsible people is probably not a good idea. I expect the ECB will strike a deal with the BB and that the BB will print the money so the Germans can still turn it off if they see no reforms coming through.

 

[el retorno]

I want to add one thing to what Funky Papa said. Those minority parties are pushing to make those reforms you might be thinking off (open lists, more democratic primaries, a reform of the D'hondt law/system, etc). Those might be things the gobernment would be forced to accept in turn for their support on other matters.

But if you don't agree with the minority parties should you really just vote for then to send a message? I've never understood that thinking anywhere (I always vote for the people whose views most closely resemble mine). If say, you are to the center right, what option is there for you vote for besides in Spain's case the PP. I think outside pressure (15M, OWS, etc) are perhaps a more effective way though I do understand the sentiment that the parties will ignore them come election time.

European and especially Spanish politics are just a lot different than the US system (especially how entrenched and how powerful the political party structures are) and I can see the frustration in the lack of power ordinary citizens have.

 

[Acidote]

But if you don't agree with the minority parties should you really just vote for then to send a message? I've never understood that thinking anywhere (I always vote for the people whose views most closely resemble mine). If say, you are to the center right, what option is there for you vote for besides in Spain's case the PP. I think outside pressure (15M, OWS, etc) are perhaps a more effective way though I do understand the sentiment that the parties will ignore them come election time.

European and especially Spanish politics are just a lot different than the US system (especially how entrenched and how powerful the political party structures are) and I can see the frustration in the lack of power ordinary citizens have.

Well, the PP is really a right wing party, and nowadays the PSOE is a center-right party (even when they themselves say otherwise, its just false). There's also UPyD and a myriad of other even smaller parties.

And the vote to send a message comes from the discontent most of us have with our polititians, even with those who are in a party supposedly aligned with our views. We are very frustrated. Hell, in my opinion, they should send all of the top and middle tier politicians of the big and middle parties and throw the keys to the bottom of the sea.

They just don't give a shit what the citizens think, 15M has done nothing, they've been there for months and completely ignored by the media but for a brief space of time. They had a saying "They call it Democracy, but it is not.", and that's how we feel.

 

[Rourkey]

Well, the PP is really a right wing party, and nowadays the PSOE is a center-right party (even when they themselves say otherwise, its just false). There's also UPyD and a myriad of other even smaller parties.

And the vote to send a message comes from the discontent most of us have with our polititians, even with those who are in a party supposedly aligned with our views. We are very frustrated. Hell, in my opinion, they should send all of the top and middle tier politicians of the big and middle parties and throw the keys to the bottom of the sea.

They just don't give a shit what the citizens think, 15M has done nothing, they've been there for months and completely ignored by the media but for a brief space of time. They had a saying "They call it Democracy, but it is not.", and that's how we feel.

What is your media like? I think an aggressive "holier than thou" media is required to keep politicians on their toes. If the media are in on it then your screwed.

 

[el retorno]

Well, the PP is really a right wing party, and nowadays the PSOE is a center-right party (even when they themselves say otherwise, its just false). There's also UPyD and a myriad of other even smaller parties.

And the vote to send a message comes from the discontent most of us have with our polititians, even with those who are in a party supposedly aligned with our views. We are very frustrated. Hell, in my opinion, they should send all of the top and middle tier politicians of the big and middle parties and throw the keys to the bottom of the sea.

They just don't give a shit what the citizens think, 15M has done nothing, they've been there for months and completely ignored by the media but for a brief space of time. They had a saying "They call it Democracy, but it is not.", and that's how we feel.

Well the way you characterized the parties (being from the US the PP is a center left party!) tells me that you come at it from the left. But even sticking with your discription. If your from the right what motive do you have for voting for the small parties? They're either nationalist parties or even more to the left of PSOE.

I think the thing that failed (IMO) was the fact that the parties that ''created" the current democracy are the ones still running the show. Where as in the US and UK the party system emerged from and after the rules of the game had been set (their constitutions)in many European countries the parties created the rules. Their not accountable to then because the can change and control then on whims. That is the biggest problem I see. The parties institutionalized their rule and made it synonymous with democracy (which it is not)(see the voting system) and getting rid of that is a tough thing to do.

Just my two cents

 

[el retorno]

What is your media like? I think an aggressive "holier than thou" media is required to keep politicians on their toes. If the media are in on it then your screwed.

Its pretty partisan

 

[Funky Papa]

What is your media like? I think an aggressive "holier than thou" media is required to keep politicians on their toes. If the media are in on it then your screwed.

They have the backs of the two main parties. Investigative journalism is dead. Period. The biggest outfits are closely related through executives and personal links to both parties, and regional newspapers are usually in the hands of either them or the local nationalist forces. And I'm not talking about having a slant, but more like cheering for one party and making shit up to smear the other, Fox News style.

The same is also true-ish for our TV, although lately the state owned channels have enjoyed a great deal of autonomy that the PP has vowed to crush ASAP after a discolous journalist made some hard hitting questions during a number of interviews (read: the ones that everybody should be asking). Local TV stations (which are owned by our regions, think American states) always side with whatever party rules there, as they serve as clientelist networks and depend on the local government to keep their funding.

TLTR version: Independent journalism in Spain is a mirage.

 

[Acidote]

Well the way you characterized the parties (being from the US the PP is a center left party!) tells me that you come at it from the left. But even sticking with your discription. If your from the right what motive do you have for voting for the small parties? They're either nationalist parties or even more to the left of PSOE.

I think the thing that failed (IMO) was the fact that the parties that ''created" the current democracy are the ones still running the show. Where as in the US and UK the party system emerged from and after the rules of the game had been set (their constitutions)in many European countries the parties created the rules. Their not accountable to then because the can change and control then on whims. That is the biggest problem I see. The parties institutionalized their rule and made it synonymous with democracy (which it is not)(see the voting system) and getting rid of that is a tough thing to do.

Just my two cents

In fact I may be more aligned with the right wing, but the European kind, not the nationalcatholic kind we have in Spain. And certainly not the US one. They call it here a "punishing vote".

 

[Funky Papa]

In fact I may be more aligned with the right wing, but the european kind, not the nationalcatholic kind we have in Spain. They call it here a "punishing vote".

I'm extremely eclectic, but I'd gladly vote for an european-style conservative party as long as they were moderate. Right now the PP is just a platform for troll politics.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

Why are some people taking the OP opinion like granted? the eurozone is not collapsing this week.

It's been obvious to me that the only reasonable solution for the Euro is for it to split for a while in my opinion. The only question is that the timing, who splits and if the people in power see reason when things get desperate enough and they can no longer sweep the problem under the carpet. The most obvious problem isn't really Italy or the smaller Greece but Germany which runs a radically different economy to the rest of the Eurozone and politically views the rest with an almost religious disapproval like it is the moral guardian of the region.

 

[forknknife]

If I could vote I would definitely vote IU, they are the only ones that make any kind of sense to me.

Also, nobody pays attention to my comments here

 

[Loonz]

I'm extremely eclectic, but I'd gladly vote for an european-style conservative party as long as they were moderate. Right now the PP is just a platform for troll politics.

They're not the most brilliant of the politicians out there, that's true. But what to say about those who have ruled Spain the last 7 years, the PSOE... they've fucking manage to destroy Spain's economy twice since the transition to democracy, with astounding levels of incompetence. They're toxic in any post that means power. In the debate of the other day, you have the PSOE's candidate asking for more public expenditures... with what money?. We've run out of money. They haven't learnt anything form the crisis at all.

So you can't blame people for putting their hopes on the right. It's almost impossible that they do worst. Not that I believe they'll solve our problems as swiftly as they should. In the next elections the current government's party is going to be destroyed. That, and only that, is why Spain is getting some time in the debt markets, whereas Italy is suffering right now.

 

[el retorno]

They're not the most brilliant of the politicians out there, that's true. But what to say about those who have ruled Spain the last 7 years, the PSOE... they've fucking manage to destroy Spain's economy twice since the transition to democracy, with astounding levels of incompetence. They're toxic in any post that means power. In the debate of the other day, you have the PSOE's candidate asking for more public expenditures... with what money?. We've run out of money. They haven't learnt anything form the crisis at all.

So you can't blame people for putting their hopes on the right. It's almost impossible that they do worst. Not that I believe they'll solve our problems as swiftly as they should. In the next elections the current government's party is going to be destroyed. That, and only that, is why Spain is getting some time in the debt markets, whereas Italy is suffering right now.

Spain´s intrest rates are almost at 6%. I really wouldn´t say Spain is safe.

That being said the PP is going to be able to do whatever they want (looks like they´re going to get an absolute majority) so you won´t have the disfunction of Italy or Greece so I don´t think its going to be as bad.

 

[Acidote]

Spain´s intrest rates are almost at 6%. I really wouldn´t say Spain is safe.

That being said the PP is going to be able to do whatever they want (looks like they´re going to get an absolute majority) so you won´t have the disfunction of Italy or Greece so I don´t think its going to be as bad.

That's good news even when I don't like the candidate (Rajoy). As soon as he's elected I expect the confidence in Spain will improve and thus reducing the cost of the bonds. We'll see, I just want to see our shit done so if everything falls apart there was nothing else we could have done.

 

[JonnyBrad]

It looks like (and I will get confirmation from the BoE later today) that the ECB has engaged in massive asset purchasing this morning. They have bid up BTP prices and sent yields down. We don't yet know if they are printing money to buy these assets or whether they are still dipping into their capital reserves. The former is what is required to make a sustained assault on the market for a few weeks and get BTP yields to around 5%, the latter would see the ECB run out of money in about 10 days and then BTP prices will crash as the markets continue to sell and there is no longer a major buyer.

Quantitative easing will buy the EU 6-8 months to push through political and economic reforms so that once the scheme is over the markets can see a viable plan of action. If they go for QE with no reform then they will become addicted to it and that will just debase the currency and send inflation flying up (Germany's worst nightmare). I expect the German's and the Bundesbank are worried about the latter. Europe has shown very little appetite for any kind of political or economic reform, and handing over a money print to basically irresponsible people is probably not a good idea. I expect the ECB will strike a deal with the BB and that the BB will print the money so the Germans can still turn it off if they see no reforms coming through.

If the Germans don't agree to conditionally turn the printing presses on soon then i think we will be beyond the point of no return. The ECB can't hold the line without printing now as the markets seem to be actively attacking. I think we will find they did start QE this morning.

There is a massive problem of dithering in Europe. The markets are moving too fast for the bureaucrats.

 

[el retorno]

That's good news even when I don't like the candidate (Rajoy). As soon as he's elected I expect the confidence in Spain will improve and thus reducing the cost of the bonds. We'll see, I just want to see our shit done so if everything falls apart there was nothing else we could have done.

But shouldn´t the markets know he´s probably going to win a majority? Shouldn´t they be factoring that in now? That what worries me about Spain. Everyone knows that the elections seem to be a given but there is still distrust. Maybe ZOMG can fill me in on something I´m missing. I don´t remember if he ever talked about Spain in his other thread about why the bailout won´t work.

 

[el retorno]

If the Germans don't agree to conditionally turn the printing presses on soon then i think we will be beyond the point of no return. The ECB can't hold the line without printing now as the markets seem to be actively attacking. I think we will find they did start QE this morning.

There is a massive problem of dithering in Europe. The markets are moving too fast for the bureaucrats.

The ECB can start a QE type thing and not tell anyone till after the fact? I´m not 100% sure how the fed works but that kind of secrecy is frightning.

 

[Loonz]

Spain´s intrest rates are almost at 6%. I really wouldn´t say Spain is safe.

That being said the PP is going to be able to do whatever they want (looks like they´re going to get an absolute majority) so you won´t have the disfunction of Italy or Greece so I don´t think its going to be as bad.

I know that we aren't safe, I tried to say that we have bought some time... like 2 weeks or so, if we're lucky. Far from being safe.

 

[JonnyBrad]

The ECB can start a QE type thing and not tell anyone till after the fact? I´m not 100% sure how the fed works but that kind of secrecy is frightning.

Not 100% sure on the details of it. That was just my speculation

Another idea is that they are buying up without printing money until Italy gets its technocratic government in (which will likely make their yields drop)

There is talk of Monti being installed this weekend which would thus buy some time. Ifthey can hobble along for 6-7 months and try to push through the correct measures with a gradual breakup of the eurozone its massively preferable to the total collapse that could happen.

Even UKIP shouldn't be crowing too hard about this. Its in no ones interest for a total eurozone breakup caused by defaults to happen now as it'll screw everyone.

Structured breakup is the only way out.

Thats all imo btw

 

[zomgbbqftw]

But shouldn´t the markets know he´s probably going to win a majority? Shouldn´t they be factoring that in now? That what worries me about Spain. Everyone knows that the elections seem to be a given but there is still distrust. Maybe ZOMG can fill me in on something I´m missing. I don´t remember if he ever talked about Spain in his other thread about why the bailout won´t work.

Spain are in the same relative position (though markedly worse in absolute terms because of rampant unemployment) as the UK in 2009/10 where a weak outgoing government was about to be replaced by a more fiscally conservative government in a short period of time. Before the election in the UK yields were about 4% and now we are sitting at about 2-2.5%. Many hope the same will happen in Spain, the new government will come in with a plan to reduce government spending and boost growth with lower taxes and continue to deflate the housing bubble slowly.

If the new government prioritise fiscal consolidation and private sector growth and basically tell the EU to fuck off with meddling in their plan I think the markets will reward them with 3-4% rates and a generally stable outlook rather than downgrades and future bail outs. As long as the new government deliver fiscal consolidation early like the UK coalition and bring Spain's national deficit down to realistic levels I don't see the markets moving in for the kill. Spain's net debt position is still better than France and Germany with just 60% debt to GDP. They have a long way to go before they turn into Italy and a new reformist government can turn it around. It will mean some pain for Spanish citizens and reduced public services, but the alternative is bankruptcy and Grecian style oblivion. With the fiscally conservative PP looking to win an outright majority they will have a true mandate to carry out painful fiscal consolidation. Yes there will be a bit of protest from people who didn't vote for them (we have that in the UK as well) but by and large we will see people buckle down and accept the austerity and try an make the best of it.

If there is any country from Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain and France that can make their way out of their current quagmire it is Spain. France come second.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

If the Germans don't agree to conditionally turn the printing presses on soon then i think we will be beyond the point of no return. The ECB can't hold the line without printing now as the markets seem to be actively attacking. I think we will find they did start QE this morning.

There is a massive problem of dithering in Europe. The markets are moving too fast for the bureaucrats.

I would be very surprised if they started QE without telling the BoE or the BB. I think it is illegal and well beyond their mandate. More likely is that they have dipped into their capital reserves heavily to fund these purchases.

Another slightly worrying aspect is that the ECB have been concentrating their firepower on Italy and getting their yields down, but they are fighting yesterday's battle today and ignoring the 5% rise in French 10y. OATS 10Y now stand at 3.35% which is a 150bp spread from German Bunds and mostly unsustainable.

 

[Frankfurter]

It's been obvious to me that the only reasonable solution for the Euro is for it to split for a while in my opinion. The only question is that the timing, who splits and if the people in power see reason when things get desperate enough and they can no longer sweep the problem under the carpet. The most obvious problem isn't really Italy or the smaller Greece but Germany which runs a radically different economy to the rest of the Eurozone and politically views the rest with an almost religious disapproval like it is the moral guardian of the region.

It's not only Germany, but also the likes of Austria, the Netherlands or Finland that are relatively successful under the current circumstances.

 

[mrklaw]

isn't it the bankers putting up the interest rates on these things? Some of this smacks of what happened to Britain when it joined the EMU. You can make fuckloads of money by betting against countries. First Greece, now Italy.

And isn't at least some of this debt burden due to the banking bailouts a couple of years ago?

 

[Funky Papa]

They're not the most brilliant of the politicians out there, that's true. But what to say about those who have ruled Spain the last 7 years, the PSOE... they've fucking manage to destroy Spain's economy twice since the transition to democracy, with astounding levels of incompetence. They're toxic in any post that means power. In the debate of the other day, you have the PSOE's candidate asking for more public expenditures... with what money?. We've run out of money. They haven't learnt anything form the crisis at all.

So you can't blame people for putting their hopes on the right. It's almost impossible that they do worst. Not that I believe they'll solve our problems as swiftly as they should. In the next elections the current government's party is going to be destroyed. That, and only that, is why Spain is getting some time in the debt markets, whereas Italy is suffering right now.

No offense, but that is ridiculous. Your asumption is that the PP is less incompetent that the PSOE, which is factually untrue. It is also NOT a fiscally responsible or conservative party AT ALL. Let's see what they stand for:

• Rajoy was one of the main actors in the sham to deceive the Spanish people after the Madrid bombings, when Aznar's government tried to tie them to ETA in what became one of the darkest and most scandalous episodes of our democracy. He is a total shithead.
• Rajoy did not kick out Camps nor is interested in investigating the absurd amount of corruption within the party. He's either a pushover or scared shitless of an investigation, which automatically makes him unelectable to anyone with half a functioning brain.
• The legal advisor of the party is no other than the same cunt that broughts the Yakolev disaster. WHAT THE FUCK.
• The PP strives to cut Spain's freedom of speech. It's already clear that they want to return TVE to its old days of being the official media platform of the government. They are also trying their best to either silence or boycott any sign of popular disent like the 15M movement.
• The PP has no program. At all. It has no real ideas nor solutions (although this is expected from a party that has become a puppet in the hands of the corporations and a small number of career politicians tied to big interests). So far its entire strategy revolves around telling its constituency that at least they don't suck like the PSOE.
• They say that they won't make cuts in teaching nor healthcare.... which is a half truth/tinly disguised lie. Both things are managed at regional levels, and we all know what's happening in those regions where the PP got elected.
• I want to keep the Church as far from the Government as possible. Fuck the bishops with a tyre iron and fuck the Nationalcatholic front. They should be paying taxes like the rest of us and get their zoning privileges removed, but the PP won't have any of that, so fuck them too.
• Their apparent solution to the real estate crisis is... trying to keep the prices as high as possible through tax cuts so it never burst as it really should. Again, WHAT THE FUCK.
• They claim they are fiscally responsible, yet many of the most disastrous economic policies that ruined the country were conceived during their previous legislatures. For Christ's sake, look at Valencia, Murcia or Madrid. And what about Galicia? They've been living under the PP for decades, and they are still one of the poorest, most patheticly managed regions of the entire country, not to mention insanely corrupt, maybe to Andalusian levels.

Like fuck all the PP is going to get us out of the crisis. Fuck the PP and fuck the uneducated shitheads who vote for them (you too, dad).

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The thing is, Spain and Spanish people better hope the PP can figure out a way to get Spanish finances under control and get growth back into the economy for a long terms solution. I hope they do as well. I would rather my enemy do a good job and the country be safe, than they live up to my poor expectations and destroy the country.

 

[Rourkey]

They have the backs of the two main parties. Investigative journalism is dead. Period. The biggest outfits are closely related through executives and personal links to both parties, and regional newspapers are usually in the hands of either them or the local nationalist forces. And I'm not talking about having a slant, but more like cheering for one party and making shit up to smear the other, Fox News style.

The same is also true-ish for our TV, although lately the state owned channels have enjoyed a great deal of autonomy that the PP has vowed to crush ASAP after a discolous journalist made some hard hitting questions during a number of interviews (read: the ones that everybody should be asking). Local TV stations (which are owned by our regions, think American states) always side with whatever party rules there, as they serve as clientelist networks and depedend on the local government to keep their funding.

TLTR version: Independent journalism in Spain is a mirage.

interesting, thanks

 

[Evlar]

Now the spread between French and German bond yields is popping, up nearly 10% on the day.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Now the spread between French and German bond yields is popping, up nearly 10% on the day.

As I said above, there is a worrying situation developing in France. They are detaching from the core northern EU group of UK/Germany/Austria/Sweden and their yields are following southern EU trends. I won't be long until France loses its AAA rating, I expect 3.5-4.5% yields in France for the next few years will be normal and coupled with low growth that will send their debt servicing bill to Italian levels without serious economic reforms like raising the retirement age from 62 to 67 in the next 15 years, getting youth unemployment down etc...

 

[Leonsito]

The thing is, Spain and Spanish people better hope the PP can figure out a way to get Spanish finances under control and get growth back into the economy for a long terms solution. I hope they do as well. I would rather my enemy do a good job and the country be safe, than they live up to my poor expectations and destroy the country.

I expect the same horrible management for the PP regarding economy, and even worse in the education and healthcare.

If PSOE didn't give a fuck about the people, I expect worse from the PP.

 

[Leonsito]

As I said above, there is a worrying situation developing in France. They are detaching from the core northern EU group of UK/Germany/Austria/Sweden and their yields are following southern EU trends. I won't be long until France loses its AAA rating, I expect 3.5-4.5% yields in France for the next few years will be normal and coupled with low growth that will send their debt servicing bill to Italian levels without serious economic reforms like raising the retirement age from 62 to 67 in the next 15 years, getting youth unemployment down etc...

French and German public debt is worse than the Spain one, the advantage they have is that they should be more able to get out of this situation.

 

[Mael]

French and German public debt is worse than the Spain one, the advantage they have is that they should be more able to get out of this situation.

I wouldn't be so sure on France though,
the whole situation is basically fucked.

The right is doing cuts everywhere in order to not anger too many people and despite that still manage the big fucking tax cuts that's just in front of them....
And the left is either :
- promising the moon in order to be elected (60 000 more people in the public workforce....when the budget can't even handle the fact that we're not even replace half of the people who leave for retirement)
- debating with the green morons on the exit of nuclear energy which is the only thing providing us cheap energy and is actually something we export.

In short, time to leave the ship.

 

[Loonz]

No offense, but that is ridiculous. Your asumption is that the PP is less incompetent that the PSOE, which is factually untrue. It is also NOT a fiscally responsible or conservative party AT ALL. Let's see what they stand for:

• Rajoy was one of the main actors in the sham to deceive the Spanish people after the Madrid bombings, when Aznar's government tried to tie them to ETA in what became one of the darkest and most scandalous episodes of our democracy. He is a total shithead.
• Rajoy did not kick out Camps nor is interested in investigating the absurd amount of corruption within the party. He's either a pushover or scared shitless of an investigation, which automatically makes him unelectable to anyone with half a functioning brain.
• The legal advisor of the party is managed by no other than the same cunt that broughts is the Yakolev disaster. WHAT THE FUCK.
• The PP strives to cut Spain's freedom of speech. It's already clear that they want to return TVE to its old days of being the official media platform of the government. They are also trying their best to either silence or boycott any sign of popular disent like the 15M movement.
• The PP has no program. At all. It has no real ideas nor solutions (although this is expected from a party that has become a puppet in the hands of the corporations and a small number of career politicians tied to big interests). So far its entire strategy revolves around telling its constituency that at least they don't suck like the PSOE.
• They say that they won't make cuts in teaching nor healthcare.... which is a half truth/tinly disguised lie. Both things are managed at regional levels, and we all know what's happening in those regions where the PP got elected.
• I want to keep the Church as far from the Government as possible. Fuck the bishops with a tyre iron and fuck the Nationalcatholic front. They should be paying taxes like the rest of us and get their zoning privileges removed, but the PP won't have any of that, so fuck them too.
• Their apparent solution to the real estate crisis is... trying to keep the prices as high as possible through tax cuts so it never burst as it really should. Again, WHAT THE FUCK.
• They claim they are fiscally responsible, yet many of the most disastrous economic policies that ruined the country were conceived during their previous legislatures. For Christ's sake, look at Valencia, Murcia or Madrid. And what about Galicia? They've been living under the PP for decades, and they are still one of the poorest, most patheticly managed regions of the entire country, not to mention insanely corrupt, maybe to Andalusian levels.

Like fuck all the PP is going to get us out of the crisis. Fuck the PP and fuck the uneducated shitheads who vote for them (you too, dad).

Excuse me but I have to answer to all of this:

- As for Madrid's 11-M bombings, I don't think everything's set on stone. If you've been following the research you'll know that there are plenty of strange things that shouldn't have happened but happened (the destruction of many of the evidences by the police, the apparition of false evidences, that right now are being investigated, yes, RIGHT NOW). You can blame them for being incompetent on that matter, but it was a huge massacre that it's still not completely clear. The investigation is ongoing.

- As for the corruption inside our political parties, that's nothing new and everyone's to blame for that. On the PSOE you have that cases of Chaves, J. Bono or right now J. Blanco, this last one accused for giving favors not in exchange of some suits precisely...

- As for the Yakolev, well, not that the idiots that currently rule our country hasn't made any fuck ups with the military. They don't send the vehicles and weaponry our troops really need because that would mean to admit we're in war missions, which I don't know why they don't want to admit. As a consequence of that, our soldiers are fucking suffering. Last week we received the corpse of the last one that died, it wasw mentioned in the last debate.

- As for the freedom of speech, I wonder what makes you think that. I mean, if you think that right now TVE is more free than in the past, well, you're mistaken. They'll always be the voice of their masters. Anyway I wouldn't use any government-funded media to get informed about anything. The best idea for me would be to close them all.

- As for the program, before the debate you'd had a point, but if you payed attention that PSOE's candidate apparently knew quite well PP's program. So they, apparently, have one.

- As for the cuts, they'll have to do them because otherwise we, as a country, will be gone for good. And if the PSOE somehow managed to win the elections (god, I hope not) they would have to do them as well. Hopefully the cuts affect little to education and health-care and plenty to ludicrous expends, like publicly financing the parties themselves or the main unions with huge amounts of money. Things like official cars have to go before they even think of cutting anything else.

- As for the church, you can't get rid of it easily as they control plenty of schools and hospitals. And somehow they've managed to rule their schools using less money than the public institutions, which is quite sad if you think about it. Anyway, I would keep the church happy for the time being as they're feeding thousands upon thousands of our fellow compatriots each day through their dining halls, people who have no jobs and no resources of any kind, forgotten for everyone. Not a single one person in the government have done anything for them, only the church. This coming from an atheist. It's a national shame.

- They don't have any apparent plan for the bursting of the real state bubble that I have heard about. Not that the party at the current government hasn't cynically take advantage of it in the good times. Now they blame their adversaries for it. Well, everybody is to blame here.

- As for what you say about some regions, it's interesting that you forget to mention regions that have been ruled by the Spanish left for decades and yet they're still within the poorest of Europe, like Andalusia, Extremadura or Castilla la Mancha. In Galicia the left has been ruling the past years as well, so they share part of the blame if the place is still poor. Madrid is the wealthiest region of the country, without it Spain would be royally fucked, but there the PP is increasing their differences with the PSOE. Why?. As for Valencia and Murcia, well, you have a point there. They keep voting PP instead of a change, I wonder why...

I will vote for the PP as much as I dislike them, because the current PSOE is the fucking worst and the rest of the options are even yuckier for me. Thanks for calling me "uneducated shithead". Just so you know, I have a degree, a postgrade, and speak 3 international languages, so maybe shithead it's applicable, but not uneducated.

 

[gcubed]

As I said above, there is a worrying situation developing in France. They are detaching from the core northern EU group of UK/Germany/Austria/Sweden and their yields are following southern EU trends. I won't be long until France loses its AAA rating, I expect 3.5-4.5% yields in France for the next few years will be normal and coupled with low growth that will send their debt servicing bill to Italian levels without serious economic reforms like raising the retirement age from 62 to 67 in the next 15 years, getting youth unemployment down etc...

you do know that those are contradicting each other