Italy Bond Yields Spike, Bankruptcy Looms
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
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Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
zomgbbqftw said:
How much are those states that would remain "hold back the currency"? Is it enough to even keep a Euro? Would they really see that much of a difference any more in exchange rates from keeping the Euro with those countries kicked out?
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
It seems to me all these very small European countries seem to be driven by banking sectors. Lichtenstein and Monaco come to mind. But i would not have thought they they will allow illegal money in since these countries don´t want to piss off their much larger neighbors. I remember all the fuss between Lichtenstein and Germany 2-3 years ago.Funky Papa said:
This is why EU's leaders have been going insane these past days that Greece signs the conditions of the agreement of 26th of October (the one that has been presented as cutting Greek debt by 50%... don't even get me started on that horseshit).
They demand and threaten that every Greek politician signs it, no matter who or of what political party, before elections, before anything else can be done.
Signing this and voting on it in parliament by 2/3 majority (which the coalition government could gather) ratifies the first Memorandum which is essentially currently illegal according to Greek constitution.
Current Greek debt is governed by Greek law, meaning that Greek courts get to decide about the debt at the end of the day, and can decide to pay in Drachmas or default. The new ECB/IMF loans are subject to English law, making it much harder to default or to be subjected to any form of an actual 'haircut'.
It has always been a race to save bankers' profits but now things are hectic.
They demand and threaten that every Greek politician signs it, no matter who or of what political party, before elections, before anything else can be done.
Signing this and voting on it in parliament by 2/3 majority (which the coalition government could gather) ratifies the first Memorandum which is essentially currently illegal according to Greek constitution.
Current Greek debt is governed by Greek law, meaning that Greek courts get to decide about the debt at the end of the day, and can decide to pay in Drachmas or default. The new ECB/IMF loans are subject to English law, making it much harder to default or to be subjected to any form of an actual 'haircut'.
It has always been a race to save bankers' profits but now things are hectic.
Speedymanic
Banned
Tacitus_ said:
Oh, that makes a lot more sense. Cheers.
zomgbbqftw said:
Thanks for the reply.
Glad to see we're still as cynical as ever when it comes to the EU.
Wow... 10 year bonds @ 1.72 for us. No wonder this mess takes so long. I'm ashamed. 
Greed greed and more greed.
Source: http://pigbonds.info/
Greed greed and more greed.
Source: http://pigbonds.info/
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Speedymanic said:
Simple. The City isn't as stupid as people make out. The government, City, BoE have been very sceptical about the apparent success of the EMU and because of that they decided to be very cautious with investment in GIPS nations. Even the loans owed in Spain are due to a lot of British expats who have taken out loans and mortgages to buy holiday homes. A lot of these can be chased locally if required.
The UK banks also deleveraged massively since 2008, so that figure was closer to $200bn then. The BoE basically laid down the law and forced them to sell up risky assets and raised capital requirements in May 2010 (when they were given control back by the new government) and in that year and a half the asset base has improved and the liabilities have been cut.
222% interest on short term Greek bonds and they want to save the country? SMHla_briola said:Wow... 10 year bonds @ 1.72 for us. No wonder this mess takes so long. I'm ashamed.
Greed greed and more greed.
Source: http://pigbonds.info/
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Tacitus_ said:
Yeah those figures are private and public debt owed by countries and people from GIPS to banks.
In terms of government debt. We're okay, and the austerity measures have reduced our deficit from 13.3% in 2009/10 to 8% this year and about 6% next year (according to the OBR). That is the fastest reduction in the world, but we also had the highest deficit as a proportion of our GDP in the world in 2009/10 (other than Greece!).
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
It´s up for the BRIC countries to save the world´s economy.
Phantast2k
Member
The fuck? You know we also buy shit from Europe, do you?alstein said:
1/5 of EU-27 imports goes to Germany (and much more if you discount non-EMU states like UK, SWE, DK).
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Not true. The idea of the Euro definitely wasn't pushed by the Germans. I'd like to see where you got that from..zomgbbqftw said:
In fact Germany was very afraid to give up its currency & monetary sovereignty after the hyperinflations of the 20ies and 30ies.
According to recently declassified cables (can't find a proper Eng source, here's a mention of them: http://www.newser.com/story/69104/thatcher-urged-gorbachev-to-block-german-reunification.html ), France & UK even tried to block the German unification. This way France leveraged German agreement towards a future EMU
Those states with endemic inflation tried to push for the Euro. Germany not so much.
Always trying to put obstacles in the way like the stability & growth pact..
And Thatchers' UK was just scared of German dominance. It's probably where your weird sentiments come from. About Germany leading the way on the Euro & trying to take advantage of its neighbors..
But private investments != gov. investments. Right? I assume he meant German fiscal discipline. Also we could theoretically just bail out our banks again and not give two shits about Greece, you know?Funky Papa said:
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
That there are people who seriously think this could lead to a WWIII in Europe is baffling. One has to disregard economics, politics and history to reach that conclusion. Having a grasp of one of those fields is understandable, knowing next to nothing about any of them is ignorant.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Phantast2k said:
I don't mean in political terms, I'm well aware of German reticence towards the EMU (and EU initially). I was speaking in economic terms, Germany is the powerhouse of the EMU (and EU really).
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
From reading this thread, the European Union hardly sounds like a union at all. Its more so just the rich and populated countries boss around everyone else, while the small countries have no say at all.
Ether_Snake
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Salvor.Hardin said:
No one said it would lead to WWIII (except as a joke). But it will lead to country-first motos in politics, which means nationalism. 100% certain that cooperation among European countries will be more difficult than ever. Don't forget that governments still answer to their people, and whoever is the most popular forms the government.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I see you point, but governments should tutor private banking as far as they can without disrupting the market or create conflicts of interests. Just because they are private it doesn't mean they get do whatthefuckever they want, specially when they are going to held a gun against the country once they reap what they sew. If they are too big to fail, they are also too big to be left to their own devices.Phantast2k said:
I'm all for that last part. Greece's character won't change until its own society changes. At this point, aiding Greece is just a waste of time and money.Phantast2k said:
So you find the current global situation of the EU in total financial meltdown, population of some countries rioting against their impoverishment, China's and India's rise in power and their immense population starting to demand a piece of Western luxuries in this world of limited resources and luxuries based on slavery of third world nations, the wars in the Middle East and the threats to Iran, and who knows what I'm forgetting, to make for a situation were WWIII is impossible.Salvor.Hardin said:
I respectfully disagree.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Fuck you Berlusconi, the only time you had to act like a serious politician and you screwed it up. What the fuck were you waiting to approve those reforms?
I kinda understand Germany and France wanting to boss around, I mean they were giving a lot of money to those small countries, some of them like Greece are totally imcompetent, and now they need even more money.
It was also because of their damn banks we couldn't have dropped aside Greece and now we have to carry them.
Flying_Phoenix said:
I kinda understand Germany and France wanting to boss around, I mean they were giving a lot of money to those small countries, some of them like Greece are totally imcompetent, and now they need even more money.
It was also because of their damn banks we couldn't have dropped aside Greece and now we have to carry them.
Oh for the love of all that is holy, enlightened and morally superior person, PLEASE, stop aiding us and let us default.Funky Papa said:
You really have no idea of how vapid EU leaders are at this point about Greece signing to receive the loans and terms do you? Benevolent overpowers looking out for poor deluded Greeks I guess, nothing else at play here, move along.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
poisonelf said:
You're screwed either with help or without it, let's be frank here.
But since France and German banks bought so much of your debt, now we and not only you, will pay the consequences of your acts.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Relaxed Muscle said:
It wasn't public investment in these countries, it is private investment (as Phantask points out) it is nothing to do with French and German governments, it is (mainly) French banks that have lent out $950bn to GIPS countries and that money will come back in worthless Lira, Drachma and Pesetas if they are forced to leave the EMU. It's really not the fault of the French government (to some degree, poor regulation is root of it really) or the French people. It is the French banks and bankers that have fucked their people and GIPS nations over by not eating their losses and holding out for a decent return despite the "assets" being worthless.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
zomgbbqftw said:
I know it was private investment that did so, obviously it needs more regulation, did any of the countries on EU aproved more regulations against those fuckers? NO. So now, we're sure that at some point something similar will happen again.
Kabouter said:
I read some time ago about the possible born of a "tea party" like group in...fucking Germany, unbelievable some years ago.
I think EU is fucked, it was weak some years ago, but now I don't think it will last to many years.
We're screwed, the thing is by defaulting and going to Drachma we're screwed short term (assuming we kick the incredibly corrupt shits we have for politicians now out), while if we sign this deal from hell we're screwed forever, no matter who we have in charge.Relaxed Muscle said:
The other thing is that the theory of Greece (2% of EU market) and some corrupt public workers here (which are a reality, but the highly overpaid ones are no more than 100,000) is responsible for the collapse of the universe and beyond, and that the saints of Northern Europe tried to save us (and not the banks) fairy tale, still holds up. It's infuriating.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Kabouter said:
All we need is for a prominent building to be set on fire and make it look like a Greek Muslim did it...
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Relaxed Muscle said:
I think you will find that German and UK financial regulation is basically bulletproof these days. Even Switzerland has the toughest banking rules in the world. Back then British banking regulation was still tougher than most of the rest of the EU, as was German. Don't blame light touch French regulation on EU resistance when the UK and Germany (the countries that actually matter in EU finance) had stronger regulations. It was up to the French government to clamp down in the early '00s but they didn't.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Sorry poisonelf, but Greece made its own bed by endorsing ridiculously corrupt officials that destroyed your economy through vast networks of clientelism and plain old greed. You fully knew that your system was corrupt to the bone, yet you continued to vote for the same brand of thieves while a significant part of the population was pilfering the country through minor fraud.poisonelf said:
You could have revolted, pushed for change when there was an opportunity, but you didn't. The Greek either took part in the sacking or stood passive while everything was going down. And this mentality prevails. Until it is expurgated (and I don't believe for a second that already happened, as first you need to expel pretty much your entire political class), Greece won't change.
The same is also true for Italy and Spain. We had our chances and we wasted them all. The 20th of November Spain will vote a new government. If any of the two main political parties (both worthless and filled with the same old clowns) is elected with enough votes to rule uncontested, it will show that we are still too fucking dumb to see the real source of our problems. Let us burn then.
To put colour on zomgbbqftw's post about rumours, I heard on Irish news that via a german diplomatic source, Germany and France have been in intensive negotiations for several months over sweeping changes to governance over the eurozone. Til relatively recently it's been considered something of a 'intellectual exercise' - or at least that's how it was officially classed. The negotiations involve changes that would allow members to leave the euro with remaining members forming a much more tightly integrated group.
Goldman Sachs and other big investment banks from the US are waging war on the euro. And the US rating agencies are playing the dirty game too. Not saying they are the cause of the crisis, but they are pooring gasoline on the flames.
If the euro fails they make hundreds of billions when the credit default swaps are triggered.
If the euro fails they make hundreds of billions when the credit default swaps are triggered.
Actually, a lot of crazy shit would have to happen for parties like the PVV here to gain a significant amount of influence over what they have now. During this whole economic mess, it's been the socialist party, the most left-wing party in the Netherlands, who have gained the most in popularity. The PVV is, according to pollsters, very near the maximum popularity they could attain with their ideas. I'd reckon it's a similar situation in many other countries. Despite all the circumstances, many still completely reject the ideas of such extreme movements to such a degree that voting for them is simply never an option.zomgbbqftw said:
YeahWazzim said:
. I was referring to the PVV here, Vlaams Belang (previously Vlaams Blok) in Flanders, Front National in France etc.Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
IIRC the Spanish far right did not fare well at all during the regional elections. They got a couple of very significant victories in troubled towns (and by victories I mean seats, a veritable first for them), but other than that, they lost significant support.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Kabouter said:Actually, a lot of crazy shit would have to happen for parties like the PVV here to gain a significant amount of influence over what they have now. During this whole economic mess, it's been the socialist party, the most left-wing party in the Netherlands, who have gained the most in popularity. The PVV is, according to pollsters, very near the maximum popularity they could attain with their ideas. I'd reckon it's a similar situation in many other countries. Despite all the circumstances, many still completely reject the ideas of such extreme movements to such a degree that voting for them is simply never an option.
Yeah
I don't think we need to worry about a rise in extremist groups in Northern Europe particularly. It will be GIPS nations I worry about, where a fuck them because they fucked us attitude could develop very quickly and that could see the rise of an extremist left/right party to sweep in on a radical agenda.
Even in the UK (home of Euroscepticism) the one party that wants to withdraw from the EU are on about 7% and Lab/Con are on 35-40% and the BNP (our racist xenophobes) are nowhere to be seen.
It seems like a Eurozone break up is seriously being considered. That means either Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and others leave the Euro, so the Italians, French, Spanish et all are left with a worthless currency or the 'weak states' like Italy, Spain and Greece will be kicked out.
As of now the EU has no plans to step in for Italy. They've said it before, they aren't going to bail out Italy.
As of now the EU has no plans to step in for Italy. They've said it before, they aren't going to bail out Italy.
Phantast2k
Member
Ok, I misinterpreted you there. Probably because you have claimed in the past something along the lines of Germany exploiting Southern Europe, etc.zomgbbqftw said:
One of the most important reasons for the German economy to do good, its products being competitively priced & why it became so export driven is:
I agree with the first part, but you still can't hold single EU member's gov. accountable for their banking regulation since most of it is on EU scale, and ideally on worldwide (or at least OECD) scale. By the way. Lots of German banks that needed most bailout money were heavily involved with/owned by federal governments. The involvement of government in banks creates sort of a implicit bailout sentiment and leads to heavy risk taking.Funky Papa said:
A perfect balance between regulation and malicious involvement is very hard to strike.
Greece cannot default completely or it will need decades upon decades to have substantial FDI flowing in. Argentine didn't default either, it just restructured its debt and continues to pay its creditors. You can't just "go off the grid" in this day and age.poisonelf said:
I thought as you do. Maybe you'll change your mind as I did, maybe not. The constant bombardment for self-guilt in Greece during the first year was even higher in frequency than the satire and 'analysts' in German and Dutch TV smearing Greece.Funky Papa said:
"You are lazy, corrupt, incompetent, scum of the earth."
Much of what you say is true, but it's not that simple. To expect of the people to revolt when life is normal? When the all-powerful media subdue, confuse and present the choices they want? When you're presented with a reality of corruption as the only choice and the appearances that nothing will ever change? When you have normal salary (not high for EU standards, just normal), a family to support and a home to support? Who does that?
So you think that the Spanish, the Italians, Greeks, are all stupid for not starting a revolution when life was normal? How about Americans for not starting one when they see the corruption?
When you say "you voted", again, not that simple. I never did. I'm 34 and never did. I am a business owner, not paid by the state, battling the bureaucracy and corruption of our system that has already led me to close down a store.
I'm relatively successful by my own choices and work for Greek low-middle class standards, despite the corruption, not because of it. There are hundreds of thousands like me, millions with the private employees, non of us benefited from corruption or EU funds that our politicians and their pet political-party armies stole.
Should we have started burning things up? Vote them out when they were the only option?
What is happening now with the billions and trillions of debt is SO IRRELEVANT to social state benefits and the corruption of a percentage of Greece that it's infuriating and maddening to see the same myths repeated.
Ether_Snake
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Kabouter said:Actually, a lot of crazy shit would have to happen for parties like the PVV here to gain a significant amount of influence over what they have now. During this whole economic mess, it's been the socialist party, the most left-wing party in the Netherlands, who have gained the most in popularity. The PVV is, according to pollsters, very near the maximum popularity they could attain with their ideas. I'd reckon it's a similar situation in many other countries. Despite all the circumstances, many still completely reject the ideas of such extreme movements to such a degree that voting for them is simply never an option.
Yeah
I'm not talking about those stupid parties. I'm saying the "our country first" moto will become much more common, everywhere in Europe. There's a lot of other stuff in that same bag though.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Yes. Our lives were not normal. Getting 30 year old mortages to pay a dinky apartment is not normal. Voting for the same parties that actively and publicly protected their most corrupt members is not normal. Believing that golf resorts for the rich would create neverending riches was not normal. The alarms were blaring all the time, and we didn't do shit because life seemed good enough. As we say in Spain, we got bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.poisonelf said:
Utterly.poisonelf said:
So did I, but that doesn't change the fact that most good people remained passive because they thought their lives were normal, when they weren't.poisonelf said:
I want you to ask yourself this question: would Greece become a prosperous country just by removing the current crop of politicians and crooks?
Well obviously, I've stated so even a few posts further up, not to mention in most posts I made here about what it is I would wish for Greece. Greece is actually quite rich in resources and potential, but that's quite a long analysis.Funky Papa said:
It seems we agree on more that what we disagree on. But still, demanding such educated decisions, courage, and moral choices while risking life and family of the average person in a 'normal' situation, is utopian. I agree it should be so, but blaming populations for the rabid profiteering of the monetary powerhouses still seems naive to me.
Loonz
Member
poisonelf said:
Let me tell, as a fellow Spaniard, that I think I understand you and I'm with you here. For individuals to change how the society that surrounds them works is very hard. When you're a hard working person trying to stay afloat every passing day, how can you fight against the decisions your supposed elite of politicians take that ruin your country at a high scale that end up ruining your own little business at a lower scale?. How can you feel responsible for the fuck ups the higher ups make to your country that will doom your children and the children of your children to a debt slavery, when your day to day routine is already hard enough?.
I know plenty of hard working people. And our lives will be fucked soon (if that EURO-breaking rumor ends up being true) just for shit our PoS politicians have made. I didn't vote for the current government, I didn't put them where they are, but I will have to pay for their mismanagements. It's infuriating. But if indeed happen, I totally expect that here the media blame Germany and France for it, and not our pitiful political class. The guy who said that nationalism will be on the rise nailed it, it will happen. It's the perfect scapegoat.
I am angry at our current political class as they're the main culprits of Spain's current sorry state. Ones for being the worst and most imbecile people to ever rule a nation, and the opposition for letting them fuck everything without doing anything. Hopefully the rest of my fellow countryman have learned the lesson and won't elect shit politicians for a while.
fizzelopeguss
Banned
zomgbbqftw said:
Frag is on suicide watch.
Funky Papa said:
A skint Europe is the worst europe the world can possibly imagine, hoist the flag! gold and plunder ahoy!
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
20N.Loonz said:
Just watch it.
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