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[SimTourist]

Something I've been thinking about lately, most if not all hit games aren't planned and are often a happy accident and cimcumstances aligning at the right time. As much as shareholders and CEOs would like to have a foolproof formula to make a hit game, it doesn't exist. The best you can do as a developer is put your best effort in and believe in your product. But what the audience will actually like and stick with is a mystery for everyone. Take any hit game you think of and there was a time when nobody believed in it. Halo CE - MS thought it wasn't great and didn't put much faith into it initially, they actually banked on Brute Force believe it or not. GTA 3 - nobody aside from Sony wanted to have it initially that's why they got it as an easy exclusive for PS2. Tetris - some random game programmed by a soviet programmer then spread around through piracy and illegal use. Demons Sould - Shu Yoshida thought it was terrible and later apologized by funding Bloodborne, Miyazaki himself was a nobody and got put on the project just to ship something. Minecraft - some small game by a small swedish team about putting and removing blocks in a randomized map, a lot of people initially shat on it because of it's graphics. PUBG is a random mod. Fortnite was a weird tower defence game that Epic tinkered with after Gears 3 shipped, quickly reacted to PUBG by making a battle royale mode and the rest is history. It's impossible to predict what will become a hit and a lot of developers crashed and burned while trying to chase a trend.

 

[TheSHEEEP]

You might not be able to manufacture a hit reliably.
But you can sure as hell manufacture a flop reliably...

 

[64bitmodels]

another example is vampire survivors, game looked like shit but the gameplay was more addicting than crack

 

[Gaiff]

Not sure I understand what OP is getting at. He names a bunch of surprise hits and then concludes that it's impossible to manufacture a hit?

Spider-Man 2, Zelda, RE4, Starfield, Super Mario Wonders, Alan Wake 2, and many others are all sales hit that had rather high expectations and for the most part seem to have met them. BG3 is the surprise hit this year because no one was expecting it to light the charts on fire.

For new franchises, this is truer which I guess is what OP means? GTA 6 will be a massive hit and I don't think anyone thinks otherwise.

 

[Toots]

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Single player is easy. Just pump out sequels to games that were already hits.

New IP and multiplayer is much harder.

 

[Dream-Knife]

Goldeneye was just going to be a dumb movie tie-in that got delayed to the point where the movie sequel was to come out a few months after release.

 

[SimTourist]

Even nintendo games are like this:
BotW - a lot of doubts initially about Zelda going open world, that it will lose it's quality.
Mario 64 - mario going into 3D was a massive risk.
Animal Crossing - some cute little game about managing a village, who wants that shit?

 

[Punished Miku]

I've actually been thinking the opposite for a while now. Don't get me wrong, releasing anything has a large amount of luck involved. Nothing is certain, nothing is 100%.

But I have thought for a while now that Sony has actually figured out how to manufacture a hit. It's the amorphous "cinematic" quality that a lot of their games share, which makes games in totally different IP feel vaguely familiar.

I think Ubisoft clearly figured out a formula to manufacture hits for the last 15 years as well. It's a real obvious formula that everyone here knows. EA has a formula as well, which is why it sticks out so much when they ever deviate from it. Activision definitely has a formula like clockwork. These are corporate decisions, not art decisions. Most everyone putting out large amounts of AAA games will have a predictable formula so they can minimize risk.

I think you saw this kind of manufactured hit dominate cinema for the last 15 years as well. They had a winning formula for huge blockbusters and it worked for a very long time. It's possible that is dying out now, but they'll find another formula. I think you see the same thing in music too. Most Drake songs sound like he could literally record them in his basement studio in a day. We're at the height of corporatized art in my opinion. Bigger budget - sticking to what works and cutting out what is a risk.

 

[brian0057]

Developers should just make the game they wanna make and ensure it's as good as possible.
Let the marketing deparment figure out how to sell it. It's literally their job.

 

[mrmustard]

Wirh a very big budget chances are high your game is mid 80 to low 90
With a very big marketing budget your sale numbers look good
Get your extra points on MC for wokeness
Get your extra points on MC from fan magazines (consoles only)

 

[Guilty_AI]

Its possible but it takes work, and time, more than a decade possibly. You need to consistently build up a fanbase over many years and expand the scope of your idea with newer and better releases.

Many companies that got a hit on their hands, such as Bethesda (until Skyrim), Larian, From Software or CDPR, followed this pattern.

But yeah, if you want to put out a hit right out of the gate, there'll definitely be some luck involved.

 

[SimTourist]

Not sure I understand what OP is getting at. He names a bunch of surprise hits and then concludes that it's impossible to manufacture a hit?

Spider-Man 2, Zelda, RE4, Starfield, Super Mario Wonders, Alan Wake 2, and many others are all sales hit that had rather high expectations and for the most part seem to have met them. BG3 is the surprise hit this year because no one was expecting it to light the charts on fire.

For new franchises, this is truer which I guess is what OP means? GTA 6 will be a massive hit and I don't think anyone thinks otherwise.

Spider Man wasn't a sure fire hit, Beenox made a ton of Spiderman games before and they were just decently successful. RE4 was a big risk by moving away from horror to action. Starfield doesn't seem to have the level of success or following as Fallout and TES, even those weren't really hits until later on with Oblivion or arguably not until Skyrim, Fallout 1/2 were niche hits made by a different team. Too early to say anything about AW2 commercially, the first game wasn't a hit, but had a strong small following. BG3 is the kinda hit I'm talking about, nobody expected it.

 

[Gaiff]

Spider Man wasn't a sure fire hit, Beenox made a ton of Spiderman games before and they were just decently successful. RE4 was a big risk by moving away from horror to action. Starfield doesn't seem to have the level of success or following as Fallout and TES, even those weren't really hits until later on with Oblivion or arguably not until Skyrim, Fallout 1/2 were niche hits made by a different team. Too early to say anything about AW2 commercially, the first game wasn't a hit, but had a strong small following. BG3 is the kinda hit I'm talking about, nobody expected it.

Spider-Man 2 after the first one sold over 30M and the massive success of the Miles and MCU movies wasn't a surefire hit?

RE4 2023 is a remake. The risk was taken back in 2005. There was no doubt this one would succeed seeing that it's arguably the most beloved title in the franchise alongside 2.

TES has been a big hit since Morrowind.

If you seriously thought these games weren't surefire hits, then you've been asleep for the past two decades.

BG3 is the only big one that came out of nowhere. Damn near everything else was a guaranteed success just based on the track record of the studios and brand names. If you wanna argue it's impossible to manufacture a new hit franchise, then sure. You never know if it'll succeed. Some even with massive backings such as Too Human end up failing miserably still, while others like the Souls series come out of nowhere.

 

[nush]

As much as shareholders and CEOs would like to have a foolproof formula to make a hit game, it doesn't exist.

It does on mobile.

Top Grossing Games (2023)

Apple’s App Store and the Google Play Store host almost one million games collectively on their stores, spanning all genres from the classic puzzle, role-playing and action to the newly formed hypercasual, merge, and simulator, which have developed for mobile. At launch, both of these stores...

www.businessofapps.com

 

[SimTourist]

I've actually been thinking the opposite for a while now. Don't get me wrong, releasing anything has a large amount of luck involved. Nothing is certain, nothing is 100%.

But I have thought for a while now that Sony has actually figured out how to manufacture a hit. It's the amorphous "cinematic" quality that a lot of their games share, which makes games in totally different IP feel vaguely familiar.

I think Ubisoft clearly figured out a formula to manufacture hits for the last 15 years as well. It's a real obvious formula that everyone here knows. EA has a formula as well, which is why it sticks out so much when they ever deviate from it. Activision definitely has a formula like clockwork. These are corporate decisions, not art decisions. Most everyone putting out large amounts of AAA games will have a predictable formula so they can minimize risk.

A fair share of Sony's cinematic games have failed, The Order, Days Gone, Killzone/Resistance, etc. Being cinematic doesn't guarantee success.
Ubisoft is making games using a formula and most of them aren't really massive hits that are everywhere. There is an audience for that kind of busywork openworld design but I wouldn't call them hits, nobody really cares that much about Ubi's games. EA's only hit series is Fifa I guess, their other properties are struggling. CoD is successful yes, but it blew up only with Modern Warfare which was a risky move at the time after WW2 games.

 

[AJUMP23]

Milli Vanilli.......have entered the chat.

 

[Guilty_AI]

BG3 is the kinda hit I'm talking about, nobody expected it.

BG3 is the only big one that came out of nowhere.

BG3 didn't came out of nowhere. Larian had a excellent track record with Divinity OS 1 and 2. DOS2 in particular was hugely popular on steam and consistently played for years until the BG3 release. All BG3 did was take the formulas that were already working very well, apply them to a D&D ruleset and famous IP, and add some cinematic flavour.

 

[Punished Miku]

A fair share of Sony's cinematic games have failed, The Order, Days Gone, Killzone/Resistance, etc. Being cinematic doesn't guarantee success.
Ubisoft is making games using a formula and most of them aren't really massive hits that are everywhere. There is an audience for that kind of busywork openworld design but I wouldn't call them hits, nobody really cares that much about Ubi's games. EA's only hit series is Fifa I guess, their other properties are struggling. CoD is successful yes, but it blew up only with Modern Warfare which was a risky move at the time after WW2 games.

It's not 100%, as I said. No one can literally see the future, and eventually a proven formula can become unappealing like Marvel movies.

I personally don't consider Killzone / Resistance part of the cinematic third person trend. Days Gone is a good example as it 100% is similar to the games I mentioned. I think the only thing I can really think of is that journalists didn't like the traditional main character in a traditional relationship, so they trashed it and it lost those scores. In all other ways, it should have been a hit. Part of the formula is being at least slightly woke. The Order is definitely cinematic, but it's also not exactly like the open world, light stealth, roughly 20-30 hours kind of thing that has proven to be a huge sales hit. It was not open world at all and much shorter, and paid the price.

It's all a guessing game but I do see some patterns, that's all I'm saying.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

A fair share of Sony's cinematic games have failed, The Order, Days Gone, Killzone/Resistance, etc. Being cinematic doesn't guarantee success.
Ubisoft is making games using a formula and most of them aren't really massive hits that are everywhere. There is an audience for that kind of busywork openworld design but I wouldn't call them hits, nobody really cares that much about Ubi's games. EA's only hit series is Fifa I guess, their other properties are struggling. CoD is successful yes, but it blew up only with Modern Warfare which was a risky move at the time after WW2 games.

Day's Gone didn't fail and Killzone and Resistance were released against the backdrop of an underperforming PS3. The Order 1886 wasn't first party.

That being said, I do agree that even Sony can't guarantee a hit and you look at Microsoft and they've been struggling to create a true hit since Halo. It's been more than 20 years.

It's difficult to make hit original IP and even licensed games don't guarantee a hit, although it is much easier.

BG3 didn't came out of nowhere. Larian had a excellent track record with Divinity OS 1 and 2. DOS2 in particular was hugely popular on steam and consistently played for years until the BG3 release. All BG3 did was take the formulas that were already working very well, apply them to a D&D ruleset and famous IP, and add some cinematic flavour.

You could argue that is a formula for manufacturing a hit. Very similar to Insomniac + Sony + Arkham + Spider-Man.

 

[AV]

What?

Top selling games in the US 2022:

1. Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare II annual franchise
2. Elden Ring
3. Madden NFL 23 annual franchise
4. God Of War: Ragnarök direct sequel to hugely successful game
5. LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga two money printing franchises together
6. Pokémon: Scarlet/Violet near annual franchise
7. FIFA 23 annual franchise
8. Pokémon Legends: Arceus near annual franchise
9. Horizon II: Forbidden West direct sequel to hugely successful game
10. MLB: The Show 22 annual franchise

Elden Ring is the one anomaly here, and even that is the culmination of years of refinement of a critical and cultural darling.

They manufacture hits literally every year.

 

[Punished Miku]

Elden Ring is the one anomaly here, and even that is the culmination of years of refinement of a critical and cultural darling.

You mean Demon's Souls 7?

 

[Pelta88]

You can manufacture a hit.

Step 1: Acquire talent.
Step 2: Given that talent / Dev studio the freedom to create without any corporate interference or direction.

Note: According to devs Step 2 is the most difficult for a studio to overcome...

 

[Hugare]

Sometimes you kinda can

Anyone with a brain knew that Spider-man was going to be a huge game without even seeing gameplay. Insomniac + Sony budget + huge IP.

The game is good, but its the most "by the numbers" game you could find on the market. There's not an ounce of innovation in it, but it doesnt need it to be successful.

But with new IPs? Sure. You never know.

GAAS games tries to stick to a winning formula most of the time, but they always fail.

No one wants to spend their time with COD or Apex clone #258.

Innovative games tho, such as Rocket League, finds their own niche.

 

[SimTourist]

Spider-Man 2 after the first one sold over 30M and the massive success of the Miles and MCU movies wasn't a surefire hit?

RE4 2023 is a remake. The risk was taken back in 2005. There was no doubt this one would succeed seeing that it's arguably the most beloved title in the franchise alongside 2.

TES has been a big hit since Morrowind.

If you seriously thought these games weren't surefire hits, then you've been asleep for the past two decades.

BG3 is the only big one that came out of nowhere. Damn near everything else was a guaranteed success just based on the track record of the studios and brand names. If you wanna argue it's impossible to manufacture a new hit franchise, then sure. You never know if it'll succeed. Some even with massive backings such as Too Human end up failing miserably still, while others like the Souls series come out of nowhere.

Activision made a ton of spiderman games before Sony and they weren't hits. Avengers game was a massive fail, Guardians of the Galaxy game was a fail. These games were made because the execs thought they would be surefire hits, but the reality is not so easy. Once you do have a hit it's fairly easy to keep the ball rolling for a few installments until people get bored.

 

[AV]

You mean Demon's Souls 7?

For sure, but it's still the first one to reach massive commercial success isn't it? Outselling Madden in the US is utterly bonkers.

I'd say that's enough to qualify it as a non-manufactured success but either way works for me

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

You can sucker a lot of people in to a dud game with manufactured hype through clever marketing and false promises. We see that all the time.

 

[Gaiff]

BG3 didn't came out of nowhere. Larian had a excellent track record with Divinity OS 1 and 2. DOS2 in particular was hugely popular on steam and consistently played for years until the BG3 release. All BG3 did was take the formulas that were already working very well, apply them to a D&D ruleset and famous IP, and add some cinematic flavour.

Out of nowhere as in, nobody expected it to sell like 10M+ copies. Even Larian said it outdid their sales expectations by several times.

Once you do have a hit it's fairly easy to keep the ball rolling for a few installments until people get bored.

Yeah so it's possible to manufacture a hit. The premise of your thread is that it's impossible to guarantee a hit franchise. You won't know until it's out there.

 

[Guilty_AI]

You could argue that is a formula for manufacturing a hit. Very similar to Insomniac + Sony + Arkham + Spider-Man.

i did, a few posts ago

 

[Mibu no ookami]

You can manufacture a hit.

Step 1: Acquire talent.
Step 2: Given that talent / Dev studio the freedom to create without any corporate interference or direction.

Note: According to devs Step 2 is the most difficult for a studio to overcome...

That's too vague to be a formula nor does this actually guarantee a hit. In fact, this is pure naivety.

 

[Boss Mog]

You absolutely can. All you need is a strong team with a desire to make a great game with a publisher willing to support their vision without compromising it. If the team is subpar or worries more about injecting their politics than having quality gameplay/story or focuses on microtransactions too much, then yes, it's impossible.

 

[64bitmodels]

You absolutely can. All you need is a strong team with a desire to make a great game *snip*

there. that's it. no publisher required. Notch didn't need a publisher when he made Minecraft.

 

[SmokedMeat]

It’s been amusing to watch on PC.

I’ve watched Epic spend millions to secure timed exclusivity for games that do nothing on their store.
Meanwhile smaller unknown games like Fall Guys, Valheim, and Vampire Survivor blew up on Steam.

 

[A.Romero]

You can manufacture a hit.

Step 1: Acquire talent.
Step 2: Given that talent / Dev studio the freedom to create without any corporate interference or direction.

Note: According to devs Step 2 is the most difficult for a studio to overcome...

Even talented people can fuck shit up and/or have problems meeting deadlines.

I can only think of Japanese examples though. For example Kojima and Fumito Ueda. I'm a big fan of both but we all know their history.

Keiji Inafune is a good example of someone who was considered talented and then fell flat once he went independent. Yuji Naka also comes to mind although he has argued that it was not his fault.

Is not always the publisher's fault.

 

[Boss Mog]

there. that's it. no publisher required. Notch didn't need a publisher when he made Minecraft.

Sure, but that most likely limits you to subpar graphics. If you want cutting edge stuff, it will cost you, and you'll most likely need a publisher to front those costs.

 

[64bitmodels]

Sure, but that most likely limits you to subpar graphics. If you want cutting edge stuff, it will cost you, and you'll most likely need a publisher to front those costs.

 

[mrmustard]

Activision made a ton of spiderman games before Sony and they weren't hits. Avengers game was a massive fail, Guardians of the Galaxy game was a fail. These games were made because the execs thought they would be surefire hits, but the reality is not so easy. Once you do have a hit it's fairly easy to keep the ball rolling for a few installments until people get bored.

Spider-Man from Sony has one big advantage the other dames don't have: As a platform owner Sony could spend >100m for marketing, when you make crossplatform games you can't.

 

[SimTourist]

Spider-Man from Sony has one big advantage the other dames don't have: As a platform owner Sony could spend >100m for marketing, when you make crossplatform games you can't.

Why not?

 

[nkarafo]

Goldeneye was just going to be a dumb movie tie-in that got delayed to the point where the movie sequel was to come out a few months after release.

Yeah. And Portal was just a bonus game in a Half-Life games compilation.

 

[mrmustard]

Why not?

Because the risc is too high. The main purpose for Sony (and Nintendo + MS) is selling consoles, subs and 3rd party games where they get a cut. As non platform owner have to make money directly with the games.

 

[Chastten]

Not sure if your examples hold up to be honest. GTA3 had absolutely massive hype built up more than 1,5 years before launch, at least on PC. I know because my best friend at the time wouldn't shut up about it for months and even built a 5k computer in order to play it.
At least here in the Netherlands game magazines hyped it up like there was no tomorrow.

Tetris is another bad example as I'm very sure that Nintendo banked on it becoming a hit and sell the Game Boy for years to come. Which it did.

And Demon's Souls didn't become a big hit until several years and sequels later. On release it was little more than a niche game for a niche audience.

But sure, some games do become surprise hits and it's not always as predictable as these companies would like, I'll give you that.

 

[crackajack]

What?

Top selling games in the US 2022:

1. Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare II annual franchise
2. Elden Ring
3. Madden NFL 23 annual franchise
4. God Of War: Ragnarök direct sequel to hugely successful game
5. LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga two money printing franchises together
6. Pokémon: Scarlet/Violet near annual franchise
7. FIFA 23 annual franchise
8. Pokémon Legends: Arceus near annual franchise
9. Horizon II: Forbidden West direct sequel to hugely successful game
10. MLB: The Show 22 annual franchise

Elden Ring is the one anomaly here, and even that is the culmination of years of refinement of a critical and cultural darling.

They manufacture hits literally every year.

I doubt sequels to well established franchises was meant by manufacturing a hit.
But I suppose the first CoD/MoH, GoW, Pokemon, Horizon were some true hits with that metric in mind. Madden, Lego anything, Fifa and MLB were build on existing licenses even from the start. And the whole list is full of manufactured sequels, also Elden Ring is just like RE4 a twist on the existing formula but not truly a fresh IP. Failing miserable is always possible, but they did not fuck up the solid foundation their fans crave.

Manufacturing Avengers failed, even though it was not even a very bad game, and had a then still incredibly strong license to jump start it.
Or Anthem, APB, Shen Mue, Deep Down those are games where manufacturing a hit did not work out at all.

 

[SimTourist]

Yeah. And Portal was just a bonus game in a Half-Life games compilation.

Counter Strike was a mod for Half Life. Dota was a custom map for Warcraft 3.

 

[Majima Everywhere System]

I agree, there isn’t a monoculture to tap into. The best strategy would be a a group of creative studios with short dev times putting shots on goal. Internally, you have a giant team ready to build the roadmap once it is a hit. They support end of life products like D4 in between.

Think Fall Guys with a roadmap team ready to go once it hit big.

People will get behind a genuinely new idea and boost it if as it’s fun even if it is early access. That’s what developers are working with and need to structure around. Note that Sony and MS show signs that this is happening.

 

[VideoGameEnjoyer]

Elden Ring did it perfectly from announcement to launch.

GTA6 will be one just because of the IP.

 

[SHA]

Not sure I understand what OP is getting at. He names a bunch of surprise hits and then concludes that it's impossible to manufacture a hit?

Spider-Man 2, Zelda, RE4, Starfield, Super Mario Wonders, Alan Wake 2, and many others are all sales hit that had rather high expectations and for the most part seem to have met them. BG3 is the surprise hit this year because no one was expecting it to light the charts on fire.

For new franchises, this is truer which I guess is what OP means? GTA 6 will be a massive hit and I don't think anyone thinks otherwise.

Gen z are born from another planet, I don't believe they coexist with the rest of humanity sharing our thoughts, even if they think they're, they aren't actually.

 

[bender]

another example is vampire survivors, game looked like shit but the gameplay was more addicting than crack

Just an aside, Steam's having a Bullet Heaven Fest and it feels like every other game is a VS clone.

 

[ZoukGalaxy]

I agree, I think unexpected hits are great, but at the same I think you underestimate the power of marketing, ads and "ambadassor" programs, they can built a fake hype and make a average or mediocre game, a almost hit because "everyone talks about it, it must be good".

Yes, it's a sad time to be alive sometimes.

 

[Happosai]

If the budget is there and there's strong production backing from day one, toy with the marketing side.

1. Know your target audience
2. Don't plagiarize but observe the past decade of top selling games
3. Research & know keys to (#2s) success if it's there and if there's data to back it up; use it
4. Poll your audience anonymously from retailers, gaming networks (including forums) and check the feedback
5. Poll results along with 1,2,3 and 4 to help inspire your devs
6. Always devs creative freedom but also know what doesn't work & cut it early on.
7. Based on 5 consider a blueprint for a second release (whichever was the runner-up in polls from those who play
8. Hit deadlines, don't go over budget as you progress and prepare your 1st demos
9. Devs to create 3 demos. Let a private audience (via convention or other means) vote on which demo they liked the most.
10. Pick the highest voted demo & prepare to show to your target audience

I could keep going but if you have a poor marketing research team or poor marketing strategy; it'll fail. If you're going from that list or something similar to, it's not a guarantee but you made the effort to attempt to understand success and will learn better when you finish that runner up about what NOT to do. Be confident and make sure there's still budget & credibility to your dev team to give it another shot should it not work.

TL;DR I fabricated that list from my experience in marketing strategy elsewhere. It's different every time and we can try gluing it down to a formula and be successful. Or, sometimes you didn't try half that hard and were lucky. The industry has always been about taking risks. If the pieces are there, take it and it could happen. If it doesn't, plenty didn't manufacture a hit first game or time. Keep trying.

 

[bitbydeath]

I’d argue that great graphics + great gameplay = a certified hit. Most studios don’t have the money/talent for it though.