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Japan’s gacha game market collapse is near, Japanese media reports, but is the market simply streamlining?

Thick Thighs Save Lives

NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire
Apple mobile gaming


A recent article by Shueisha Online suggests that the Japan’s market for mobile gacha games is on the brink of collapse. While there is some evidence to support that conditions have grown harsher, the article caused some confusion on Japanese social media. It seems that the situation is not as clear cut as it appears at first glance.

The Shueisha article argues that gacha games limit their audience by not transferring easily to markets outside Japan. Quoting Asmarq’s social games survey on Japan, China and the USA- it cites that Japanese players feel that characters (77%) and user friendliness (73%) are the most important elements of mobile games. However, the USA and China put more emphasis on high quality graphics and entertainment value.

Regardless of country, “bad” gacha games tend to gate-keep, excluding beginners and non-paying players from those who put a lot of money into the game- thus creating a kind of in-game wealth gap. On a psychological level, people are more likely to spend money on microtransactions if they are enjoying the game. Titles that from the outset tell you to fork out money for a weapon or character you need to advance in the game are likely to turn off players, possibly promoting them to hit uninstall.

Genshin Impact Wishes

Genshin Impact’s Wish system wherein you can obtain characters and weapons at random.

The article posits that Chinese-made Genshin Impact’s global success came as a result of the game not using highly competitive gacha elements. This statement caused some confusion among readers on social media- after all, Genshin Impact does have a gacha-like system in the form of its Wishes. However, you can earn some Wishes just by playing the game, so it is possible to enjoy Genshin’s story without feeling the need to immediately open your wallet.

Genshin’s popularity is also explained by other factors that the article touches upon- its high-quality visuals and sound design, as well as the high degree of freedom that it offers players.

Umamusume Pretty Derby

Umamusume Pretty Derby
.

The most egregious point picked up on by Japanese social media users is that the Shueisha article does not mention highly successful Japanese mobile game Umamusume Pretty Derby (pictured at the top of this article). Created by Cygames, the racing horse girl training sim has made over $2.4 billion USD since its initial release in Japan in February 2021. Previously released in China, Umamusume Pretty Derby is gearing up for an English language launch this year, having already built up a cult fanbase overseas. Umamusume also has gacha elements, but its focus is on its cute characters, horse racing lore and rewarding gameplay.

A Sensor Tower report in January 2024 showed that Japanese publishers still made the most money on mobile games in Japan in 2023- with Konami, Bandai Namco Entertainment and CyberAgent (parent company of Cygames) topping the chart. Konami’s eFootball (the third most profitable mobile title in 2023) and Pro Baseball Spirits A, both sports games with gacha elements, have remained in the top grossing mobile games chart for a while, as has Bandai Namco’s Gakuen Idolmaster. However, last year China’s Honkai: Star Rail and Korea’s Goddess of Victory: NIKKE were the top growing titles in Japan’s mobile market. Honkai reportedly saw its revenues in Japan grow by 200 million dollars (related article).

Goddess of Victory NIKKE

Goddess of Victory: NIKKE.

It’s worth noting that Nikke was originally released in 2022 and Honkai in 2023. It is hard for mobile games to keep their audience and remain profitable for as long as Genshin Impact (2020) and Umamusume Pretty Derby (2021) have. Further data from Sensor Tower shows that mobile games based on Japanese IPs remain popular- with Dragon Ball and One Piece-related titles doing well for Bandai Namco in the first half of 2024.

Honkai Star Rail

Honkai: Star Rail.

However, alongside improvements in device performance, players expectations for mobile games in terms of graphics, content and polish have also risen. This has led to higher costs and longer development periods for mobile game developers. Also, players in Japan seem less willing to spend money in-game. A March 2024 article from The Nikkei, which we reported on, showed that microtransaction purchases had dropped for the third consecutive year, falling to 80% of what they were in 2019.

This issue of mobile games requiring more time and money to make but then having potentially shorter lifecycles, is what could drive some big Japanese game makers away from the mobile market. Indeed, Square Enix shut down many free-to-play mobile games in 2023 and 2024, with their mid-term business plan suggesting a tighter focus on quality over quantity across the board.

So, is Japan’s gacha game market on the brink of collapse? It is certainly undergoing change. With many Japanese publishers like Koei Tecmo shifting their focus away from mobile games towards consoles and PC, it seems that the Japanese mobile market could see fewer domestic releases in the future. The high standards set by market dominators like Genshin, Umamusume Pretty Derby and Honkai: Star Rail, have put pressure on upcoming mobile games. It may be that in the future, the market will see fewer titles being made, of higher quality, and with less overt gacha mechanisms. When it comes to gacha, the key to success seems to be to make the players love your title first, so they feel willing rather than “forced” to spend real money in game.

Source - Automaton West
 

Draugoth

Gold Member
Gacha is usually a bad bussiness model in the long run, developers will be at mercy of a few hundred or thousand whales that makes up 90% of the revenue in the game, and if the whales demand changes or quit spending the game will essentialy die.

It would be best if devs released optional cheap DLC skin packs that anyone can afford like Capcom does for Monster Hunter
 
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So it's not collapsing but changing standards. Mihoyo has changed the rules by producing AAA that are perceived as the new minimum for any future competitor. It's so funny that what should be good news is written in such a gloom and doom way.

I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with the fact that Japan is falling behind China and Korea. Suuuure it's not the case.
 

killatopak

Gold Member
I think it’s less about the games themselves but more about the economic situation in Japan. It seems they are currently fucked right now so less people buy iap. This leads me to believe that gacha games that have more international popularity will survive as Japanese gacha games tend to be more insular and more than likely requires vpn to even access internationally.
 

Doom85

Member
It would be best if devs released optional cheap DLC skin packs that anyone can afford like Capcom does for Monster Hunter

Some of them do that. I play Langrisser Mobile and you can buy costume tickets to unlock alternate costumes for characters (you can also slowly earn costume tickets for free over time).

I’m sure Honkai Star Rail, the gacha I play the most, will bring in alternate costumes eventually. But they do make plenty of money from non-whales, even most so-called “F2P” players still get the 5$ a month pass which if you login every day (as you get 90 per day login) gets you 2700 Stellar Jade (the currency for pulling on a banner) per month plus 300 Stellar Jade as soon as you buy it, as that’s a bargain compared to what you have to spend to buy Stellar Jade directly. Considering Star Rail has over 20 million players, even if only 10% were getting the monthly pass, that’s still 10 million dollars per month from the pass alone. I say it’s the smaller gacha games that are more desperately relying on what dedicated whales they have whereas the bigger gacha games can make a ton of money from even just the casual players.
 

Arsic

Loves his juicy stink trail scent
Nah.

It just needs adaptation. A lot of these are now having console and pc versions with action gameplay.

Gacha is just a limited funnel of monetization. They have to find better ways to bring players back to keep having influxes of sales. Seasonal content isn’t working so maybe full blown expansions or sequels after a few years that carry over some waifus between versions.
 

Fbh

Member
There a few that made it big, mainly Genshin Impact.
How many more games built around basically gambling for "rare" anime waifus do we need?
 
the market is changing. Because there are so many competition and scope of the games are also getting bigger, if you want a chance to succeed you need to be multi-platform globally. You can't just stay on mobile anymore. It has be to mobile and PC, preferably on consoles as well, in order to maximum audience reach.

Personally, if a gacha game interests me and it lacks a PC port, I'm not going to bother trying it.
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
"This issue of mobile games requiring more time and money to make"
What?
 

NanaMiku

Member
I think the biggest problem is only available in Japan. Even if in the end they brought it outside of Japan, it's usually too late. All Chinese and Korean games that are successful right now are released on the same day for every region.
And mobile games from bigger publishers like Square Enix are usually pretty harsh in terms of their profit target. They have the most mobile games that are axed in under a year.
 

NanaMiku

Member
Even in Akihabara, one of the exits now have Yostar gate exit, with Yostar store in front of it

449239610_3367588950208840_3735903421632698247_n.jpg


Even ads in Tokyo Station are Blue Archive
4qz4kav9tagc1.jpeg


Tokyo Skytree collab with Genshin Impact

423515640_10160218937942979_2792298162618533810_n.jpg


BONUS: I spotted Another Code ads in Tokyo Station when I went to Japan

421222516_10160210972812979_1201964650605376667_n.jpg
 

Felessan

Member
Gacha is usually a bad bussiness model in the long run, developers will be at mercy of a few hundred or thousand whales that makes up 90% of the revenue in the game, and if the whales demand changes or quit spending the game will essentialy die.

It would be best if devs released optional cheap DLC skin packs that anyone can afford like Capcom does for Monster Hunter
Completely opposite. Gacha follow MMO rules - if game is successfull, it successfull for life. If not - it'll die quickly.
Pazudora (2012 game) still yearns ~100 mio/year and Monster Strike (2013 game) yearns ~500 mio/year
Game just need to establish faithfull playerbase on whom it can run for years.
 

Sakura

Member
The article posits that Chinese-made Genshin Impact’s global success came as a result of the game not using highly competitive gacha elements. This statement caused some confusion among readers on social media- after all, Genshin Impact does have a gacha-like system in the form of its Wishes. However, you can earn some Wishes just by playing the game, so it is possible to enjoy Genshin’s story without feeling the need to immediately open your wallet.
I don't really understand this point. This is pretty much the case for all gacha games I have played. Japanese or otherwise.
 
"This issue of mobile games requiring more time and money to make"
What?

AAA mobile games are more expensive than any console JRPG and demand constant updates to keep engagement. To compete against Mihoyo, Shift Up or Kuro, the minimum investment is around 200-300 million.

I laugh when I hear Sony or MS execs talking about going mobile. They believe it's still 2014.
 

Porcile

Member
I don't know about Gacha specifically but it feels like Japanese made stuff/content is a post-Covid bubble without any long-term innovation on the horizon. Everyone is going crazy for anything Japan right now, but seems unlikely that it can maintain it in the long term and more countries start to catch up as is already happening in China and Korea.
 

EDMIX

Writes a lot, says very little
Apple mobile gaming


A recent article by Shueisha Online suggests that the Japan’s market for mobile gacha games is on the brink of collapse. While there is some evidence to support that conditions have grown harsher, the article caused some confusion on Japanese social media. It seems that the situation is not as clear cut as it appears at first glance.

The Shueisha article argues that gacha games limit their audience by not transferring easily to markets outside Japan. Quoting Asmarq’s social games survey on Japan, China and the USA- it cites that Japanese players feel that characters (77%) and user friendliness (73%) are the most important elements of mobile games. However, the USA and China put more emphasis on high quality graphics and entertainment value.

Regardless of country, “bad” gacha games tend to gate-keep, excluding beginners and non-paying players from those who put a lot of money into the game- thus creating a kind of in-game wealth gap. On a psychological level, people are more likely to spend money on microtransactions if they are enjoying the game. Titles that from the outset tell you to fork out money for a weapon or character you need to advance in the game are likely to turn off players, possibly promoting them to hit uninstall.

Genshin Impact Wishes

Genshin Impact’s Wish system wherein you can obtain characters and weapons at random.

The article posits that Chinese-made Genshin Impact’s global success came as a result of the game not using highly competitive gacha elements. This statement caused some confusion among readers on social media- after all, Genshin Impact does have a gacha-like system in the form of its Wishes. However, you can earn some Wishes just by playing the game, so it is possible to enjoy Genshin’s story without feeling the need to immediately open your wallet.

Genshin’s popularity is also explained by other factors that the article touches upon- its high-quality visuals and sound design, as well as the high degree of freedom that it offers players.

Umamusume Pretty Derby

Umamusume Pretty Derby.

The most egregious point picked up on by Japanese social media users is that the Shueisha article does not mention highly successful Japanese mobile game Umamusume Pretty Derby (pictured at the top of this article). Created by Cygames, the racing horse girl training sim has made over $2.4 billion USD since its initial release in Japan in February 2021. Previously released in China, Umamusume Pretty Derby is gearing up for an English language launch this year, having already built up a cult fanbase overseas. Umamusume also has gacha elements, but its focus is on its cute characters, horse racing lore and rewarding gameplay.

A Sensor Tower report in January 2024 showed that Japanese publishers still made the most money on mobile games in Japan in 2023- with Konami, Bandai Namco Entertainment and CyberAgent (parent company of Cygames) topping the chart. Konami’s eFootball (the third most profitable mobile title in 2023) and Pro Baseball Spirits A, both sports games with gacha elements, have remained in the top grossing mobile games chart for a while, as has Bandai Namco’s Gakuen Idolmaster. However, last year China’s Honkai: Star Rail and Korea’s Goddess of Victory: NIKKE were the top growing titles in Japan’s mobile market. Honkai reportedly saw its revenues in Japan grow by 200 million dollars (related article).

Goddess of Victory NIKKE

Goddess of Victory: NIKKE.

It’s worth noting that Nikke was originally released in 2022 and Honkai in 2023. It is hard for mobile games to keep their audience and remain profitable for as long as Genshin Impact (2020) and Umamusume Pretty Derby (2021) have. Further data from Sensor Tower shows that mobile games based on Japanese IPs remain popular- with Dragon Ball and One Piece-related titles doing well for Bandai Namco in the first half of 2024.

Honkai Star Rail

Honkai: Star Rail.

However, alongside improvements in device performance, players expectations for mobile games in terms of graphics, content and polish have also risen. This has led to higher costs and longer development periods for mobile game developers. Also, players in Japan seem less willing to spend money in-game. A March 2024 article from The Nikkei, which we reported on, showed that microtransaction purchases had dropped for the third consecutive year, falling to 80% of what they were in 2019.

This issue of mobile games requiring more time and money to make but then having potentially shorter lifecycles, is what could drive some big Japanese game makers away from the mobile market. Indeed, Square Enix shut down many free-to-play mobile games in 2023 and 2024, with their mid-term business plan suggesting a tighter focus on quality over quantity across the board.

So, is Japan’s gacha game market on the brink of collapse? It is certainly undergoing change. With many Japanese publishers like Koei Tecmo shifting their focus away from mobile games towards consoles and PC, it seems that the Japanese mobile market could see fewer domestic releases in the future. The high standards set by market dominators like Genshin, Umamusume Pretty Derby and Honkai: Star Rail, have put pressure on upcoming mobile games. It may be that in the future, the market will see fewer titles being made, of higher quality, and with less overt gacha mechanisms. When it comes to gacha, the key to success seems to be to make the players love your title first, so they feel willing rather than “forced” to spend real money in game.

Source - Automaton West

Shiiiiiiit mayyyyybe

giphy.gif


I can't keep up with any of this shit lol

Its like, every week some company from China is announcing 200 of these games lol Semi OT, what ever happened to that South Korean open world online game that kinda looked like Pokemon and they had like skateboards? (I know it sounds wild, but shit believe me, someone here remembers lol!)
 

Spukc

always chasing the next thrill
If you want to try gacha like gameplay without all the fucking bullshit.

Try out metal slug attack reloaded.

An discontinued rereleased gacha game / towerdefence.

with all the horseshit taken out and a single payment of a tenner
 
Last edited:

Robochobo

Member
Dokkan Battle going 9 years strong and single handedly carrying Bandai on its back. Entirely PvE with no real P2W mechanics unlike Legends.
 

NanaMiku

Member
Its like, every week some company from China is announcing 200 of these games lol Semi OT, what ever happened to that South Korean open world online game that kinda looked like Pokemon and they had like skateboards? (I know it sounds wild, but shit believe me, someone here remembers lol!)
You mean DokeV?

 

EDMIX

Writes a lot, says very little
You mean DokeV?



You out here singlehandedly protecting me from going to the nursing home where my bitch ass family keep trying to force me! lol

Be like "See, i told ya'll it was thing DAMN IT!" lol

Ohhhh yea, I forgot this was done by the Black Desert guys
 

NanaMiku

Member
You out here singlehandedly protecting me from going to the nursing home where my bitch ass family keep trying to force me! lol

Be like "See, i told ya'll it was thing DAMN IT!" lol

Ohhhh yea, I forgot this was done by the Black Desert guys
Yup, still no info about the game tho
 
It’s crazy to see how the gacha game scene is evolving, especially with titles like Goddess of Victory: Nikke and Honkai: Star Rail making huge waves. Games like Nikke have that perfect balance — you don’t feel like you have to spend, but man, sometimes you really want to, just to snag those limited characters or skins.

It’s all about enjoying the game, right? And, if you’re feeling like you need a boost or you’ve got your eye on a particular banner, [link removed by a mod] can give you that edge without breaking the flow. Honestly, it’s the best way to keep up with events and grab those must-have units.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'll just say i have played Genshin since April and have barely spent any money on it. You can play it without ever thinking about spending money unless you really want a specific character. And even if you buy a Battle pass you have 2 options that aren't even all that expensive.

Not sure about the other games but the model they use in it is quite good. Even if i have spent money on the game...i have played it for over 300 hours. I buy games full priced and sometimes they last 15 hours so...
 

NotMyProblemAnymoreCunt

Biggest Trails Stan
Apple mobile gaming


A recent article by Shueisha Online suggests that the Japan’s market for mobile gacha games is on the brink of collapse. While there is some evidence to support that conditions have grown harsher, the article caused some confusion on Japanese social media. It seems that the situation is not as clear cut as it appears at first glance.

The Shueisha article argues that gacha games limit their audience by not transferring easily to markets outside Japan. Quoting Asmarq’s social games survey on Japan, China and the USA- it cites that Japanese players feel that characters (77%) and user friendliness (73%) are the most important elements of mobile games. However, the USA and China put more emphasis on high quality graphics and entertainment value.

Regardless of country, “bad” gacha games tend to gate-keep, excluding beginners and non-paying players from those who put a lot of money into the game- thus creating a kind of in-game wealth gap. On a psychological level, people are more likely to spend money on microtransactions if they are enjoying the game. Titles that from the outset tell you to fork out money for a weapon or character you need to advance in the game are likely to turn off players, possibly promoting them to hit uninstall.

Genshin Impact Wishes

Genshin Impact’s Wish system wherein you can obtain characters and weapons at random.

The article posits that Chinese-made Genshin Impact’s global success came as a result of the game not using highly competitive gacha elements. This statement caused some confusion among readers on social media- after all, Genshin Impact does have a gacha-like system in the form of its Wishes. However, you can earn some Wishes just by playing the game, so it is possible to enjoy Genshin’s story without feeling the need to immediately open your wallet.

Genshin’s popularity is also explained by other factors that the article touches upon- its high-quality visuals and sound design, as well as the high degree of freedom that it offers players.

Umamusume Pretty Derby

Umamusume Pretty Derby.

The most egregious point picked up on by Japanese social media users is that the Shueisha article does not mention highly successful Japanese mobile game Umamusume Pretty Derby (pictured at the top of this article). Created by Cygames, the racing horse girl training sim has made over $2.4 billion USD since its initial release in Japan in February 2021. Previously released in China, Umamusume Pretty Derby is gearing up for an English language launch this year, having already built up a cult fanbase overseas. Umamusume also has gacha elements, but its focus is on its cute characters, horse racing lore and rewarding gameplay.

A Sensor Tower report in January 2024 showed that Japanese publishers still made the most money on mobile games in Japan in 2023- with Konami, Bandai Namco Entertainment and CyberAgent (parent company of Cygames) topping the chart. Konami’s eFootball (the third most profitable mobile title in 2023) and Pro Baseball Spirits A, both sports games with gacha elements, have remained in the top grossing mobile games chart for a while, as has Bandai Namco’s Gakuen Idolmaster. However, last year China’s Honkai: Star Rail and Korea’s Goddess of Victory: NIKKE were the top growing titles in Japan’s mobile market. Honkai reportedly saw its revenues in Japan grow by 200 million dollars (related article).

Goddess of Victory NIKKE

Goddess of Victory: NIKKE.

It’s worth noting that Nikke was originally released in 2022 and Honkai in 2023. It is hard for mobile games to keep their audience and remain profitable for as long as Genshin Impact (2020) and Umamusume Pretty Derby (2021) have. Further data from Sensor Tower shows that mobile games based on Japanese IPs remain popular- with Dragon Ball and One Piece-related titles doing well for Bandai Namco in the first half of 2024.

Honkai Star Rail

Honkai: Star Rail.

However, alongside improvements in device performance, players expectations for mobile games in terms of graphics, content and polish have also risen. This has led to higher costs and longer development periods for mobile game developers. Also, players in Japan seem less willing to spend money in-game. A March 2024 article from The Nikkei, which we reported on, showed that microtransaction purchases had dropped for the third consecutive year, falling to 80% of what they were in 2019.

This issue of mobile games requiring more time and money to make but then having potentially shorter lifecycles, is what could drive some big Japanese game makers away from the mobile market. Indeed, Square Enix shut down many free-to-play mobile games in 2023 and 2024, with their mid-term business plan suggesting a tighter focus on quality over quantity across the board.

So, is Japan’s gacha game market on the brink of collapse? It is certainly undergoing change. With many Japanese publishers like Koei Tecmo shifting their focus away from mobile games towards consoles and PC, it seems that the Japanese mobile market could see fewer domestic releases in the future. The high standards set by market dominators like Genshin, Umamusume Pretty Derby and Honkai: Star Rail, have put pressure on upcoming mobile games. It may be that in the future, the market will see fewer titles being made, of higher quality, and with less overt gacha mechanisms. When it comes to gacha, the key to success seems to be to make the players love your title first, so they feel willing rather than “forced” to spend real money in game.

Source - Automaton West

youtube the evil is defeated GIF


Edit - Never mind it's a old article..
 
Last edited:

Woopah

Member
It’s crazy to see how the gacha game scene is evolving, especially with titles like Goddess of Victory: Nikke and Honkai: Star Rail making huge waves. Games like Nikke have that perfect balance — you don’t feel like you have to spend, but man, sometimes you really want to, just to snag those limited characters or skins.

It’s all about enjoying the game, right? And, if you’re feeling like you need a boost or you’ve got your eye on a particular banner, [link removed by a mod] can give you that edge without breaking the flow. Honestly, it’s the best way to keep up with events and grab those must-have units.
Your ideas intrigue me and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
 
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