sonycowboy said:I think you're being pretty unfair in your analysis.
"The fact that its going to take a year"
Right now, it's all about supply. I don't think you can knock them for not outselling the DS LTD when the DS launched first (and is alone in the US right now) and both the PSP & the DS have been highly contstrained.
"and millions in hardware losses for Sony"
Funny how Sony thinks it will be profitable in very, very short order. In addition, it's tough to throw out money here. Millions would be easily worth it to break into the market. Tens of millions would be tough to swallow. Hundreds of millions would be a disaster. Billions, well only Microsoft can do that
Also, if they only lost $5 per unit, that would be $5M when a million units are shipped. This is true of all hardware and that's why they charge royalties and invest heavinly in first party development. The platform revenue is what's important.
"That someone with tech not even in the same stratosphere as a Nintendo handheld can marginally outsell them"
or
"Don't get me wrong, the PSP should outsell the DS by a huge margin, when all is said and done. "
Which is it? Will they outsell the DS by a HUGE margin or will they only marginally outsell them. Personally, I'd agree with your latter statement that it's going to outsell by a huge margin.
1) DS sales aren't going to drop to 0 when PSP production ramps up. Vastly inferior technology is still selling 40K units a week, during a traditionally dead period, without any big releases. (unlike some N-apologists I don't consider Yoshi a system seller). Depending on specifics regarding Pokemon, Square, etc., I am making a rough estimate that by the time 2005 is winding down, worling PSP sales will meet worldwide DS sales. I don't feel that thats unreasonable.
2) I do think that Sony is going to lose hundreds of millions (or at least one hundred million) on PSP hardware. A disaster, as you called it. The PSP isn't going to magically start being cheaper for them to manufacture in the next couple months.. It takes time for those costs to come down and for wholesale part prices to come down.
Let's say we estimate the loss on each PSP sold at the VERY LOW END of $50. For every million sold, thats $50 million in hardware losses. Realistically, the amount lost on each unit sold is closer to $120, give or take. Maybe $100. Sony is gonna spend hundreds of millions to match a piece of Nintendo hardware that Nintendo sells for a profit.
3) The second comment wasn't meant as a predictor of the future. I just meant, looking at the tech specs, in a "right" world, the PSP would outsell the DS by a wide margin. The first comment was more how I feel the handheld gen is gonna go. (PSP marginally outselling DS, for each system's lifespan).