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[JPN] -- weekly sales (24-30 Jan)

sonycowboy said:
I think you're being pretty unfair in your analysis.

"The fact that its going to take a year"
Right now, it's all about supply. I don't think you can knock them for not outselling the DS LTD when the DS launched first (and is alone in the US right now) and both the PSP & the DS have been highly contstrained.

"and millions in hardware losses for Sony"
Funny how Sony thinks it will be profitable in very, very short order. In addition, it's tough to throw out money here. Millions would be easily worth it to break into the market. Tens of millions would be tough to swallow. Hundreds of millions would be a disaster. Billions, well only Microsoft can do that :D

Also, if they only lost $5 per unit, that would be $5M when a million units are shipped. This is true of all hardware and that's why they charge royalties and invest heavinly in first party development. The platform revenue is what's important.

"That someone with tech not even in the same stratosphere as a Nintendo handheld can marginally outsell them"

or

"Don't get me wrong, the PSP should outsell the DS by a huge margin, when all is said and done. "


Which is it? Will they outsell the DS by a HUGE margin or will they only marginally outsell them. Personally, I'd agree with your latter statement that it's going to outsell by a huge margin.


1) DS sales aren't going to drop to 0 when PSP production ramps up. Vastly inferior technology is still selling 40K units a week, during a traditionally dead period, without any big releases. (unlike some N-apologists I don't consider Yoshi a system seller). Depending on specifics regarding Pokemon, Square, etc., I am making a rough estimate that by the time 2005 is winding down, worling PSP sales will meet worldwide DS sales. I don't feel that thats unreasonable.

2) I do think that Sony is going to lose hundreds of millions (or at least one hundred million) on PSP hardware. A disaster, as you called it. The PSP isn't going to magically start being cheaper for them to manufacture in the next couple months.. It takes time for those costs to come down and for wholesale part prices to come down.

Let's say we estimate the loss on each PSP sold at the VERY LOW END of $50. For every million sold, thats $50 million in hardware losses. Realistically, the amount lost on each unit sold is closer to $120, give or take. Maybe $100. Sony is gonna spend hundreds of millions to match a piece of Nintendo hardware that Nintendo sells for a profit.

3) The second comment wasn't meant as a predictor of the future. I just meant, looking at the tech specs, in a "right" world, the PSP would outsell the DS by a wide margin. The first comment was more how I feel the handheld gen is gonna go. (PSP marginally outselling DS, for each system's lifespan).
 
I have one question.. did we ever get final DS numbers for the last NPD numbers to come out in the US?

And another thing.. someone above had mentioned that the DS was two generations behind the PSP.. I'm a little confused by that.. from my perspective (most likely the wrong one :) ) I'd say it's more like less than a generation.. (DS is a tad more powerful than the N64 and the PSP is a tad less powerful than the PS2)
 
Jonnyram said:
Oops, back in serious mode...
Nintendo sold up to 100k software units this week, more than 2x the number of hardware sold.
PSP games sold? Hmm, about 40k in the top 20? Not looking too hot for the tie-in ratio.

Well, at least third parties sell something on Sony systems. I don't think they care about how much Nintendo games sell on Nintendo systems.
 
I think PSP loses are probably in the $20-$50 range per unit right now.

That $250 "Value Pack" is actually probably overpriced, and that also likely has helped them cut back on losses (a pretty smart plan actually).
 
The snail's pace at which Nintendo has pushed the portable market basically has finally just bit them in the ass really.

I don't believe this..Even back in 2001 when the GBA was released, how affordable would a 3D system be? Even the DS would''ve costed much much more then.

These threads are depressing not in the way the sales are concerned but in the way some of you people react. PSP fans are making snide comments here and there just to get a reaction out of DS fans. The same could be said about DS fans back when it was outselling PSP. For once it would be nice to be civilized, especially considering most of us here are adults. And some of you are well into your 30's.
 
^^^ I agree. The sniping on both sides is moronic.

People who call doomed for either console are asking to be force-fed a whole shit load of crow.

The Nintendo DS hasn't released in Europe yet, and by the sounds of it - it's beat PSP to market in every single region of the world. Kudos to them. This is by no means the year headstart Nintendo allowed PS2. Nintendo played it right this time. They've shipped near 2 million Nintendo DS' -- even before they have the surge that will come when they hit Europe.

This business about Sony saying they're shipping 100k but not being found anywhere by our Japanese members is most curious. Are they counting production of foreign models? Sending shipments elsewhere? No, it doesn't make sense. It wouldn't surprise me if there was some kind of artificial shortage being created. For those who help create it, it's pretty much in everyone's interests. The only people it won't benefit is those searching out the PSP. There was an article in GamesTM this month about PSP launch day, and Chinese mafia were apparently paying people to buy PSPs from Yodobashi Camera so they could sell them on for stupid prices later. A shortage played into Sony's hands with PS2, and it's probably working in a similar way with the PSP. Hopefully you can see there'd be motive..

With no particular kind of killer app out for either system, I think it's possible we'll keep seeing Sony win these weekly battles on the basis of the superior graphical hardware alone. I don't think Nintendo would sneer at that, given that they expected a lukewarm reception at it's unveiling and know full-well that it is the graphically inferior machine. It's probably cheaper to make too. If Nintendo execs really do care a lot about this? Well, they made their own bed.

You can't really say PSP has won and DS has lost though just yet. DS has quite a few titles in the works that should give the purchase of such a machine much more purpose. Think: Mario Bros, Pokemon, Final Fantasy III. There will be handheld games on this system it would be simply impossible to get on PSP too thanks to the features. All thats needed is for people to conjor up ones that are any good, and there's more purpose. Add in Nintendo's propensity to price-cut, or offer alternative models when they're faced with declining sales -- and it's hard to see the DS not staying in the fight all year round.

The fact we're only 2 months in and anyone is cooing victory is just stupid. The DS-fans are seeing the successful transition of the powerful PlayStation brand in action. The PSP fans are seeing the handheld master unfurl the Nintendo DS across the globe faster than Sony can make PSPs, and it's still Nintendo titles that top this chart. The rest of us are sitting, mouth-a-gape, while these threads appear every week, and wondering if it's not all a little premature.

You should want people to buy both. I know I do.
 
I think PSP loses are probably in the $20-$50 range per unit right now.

That $250 "Value Pack" is actually probably overpriced, and that also likely has helped them cut back on losses (a pretty smart plan actually).

its more than that..didn't some peeps that live in japan that know people on the inside saying it was losing almost $200 a unit.
 
Agreed its way too premature to claim victory, but I do think one thing is getting more and more obvious -- the PSP is the real deal, its not going to be a "flash in the pan" type of product like the Game Gear.

There's no reason why the PSP cannot be the market leader in the portable sector.
 
radioheadrule83 said:
I hate posting long posts at the bottom of a page.

Dood that was such an attentionwhore move....

So we've got folks predicting that Sony is going to take a bloodbath on the PSP... while Sony keeps claiming it'll turn a profit as soon as this summer... or more specifically next fiscal year.

As Sony's annual manufacturing rate is about 3 million PSP units, the company, for the next fiscal year, will ship 1 million units each to North America, Europe, and Japan. That, says Kutaragi, will be the break-even point for Sony's PSP to start making a profit. (By comparison, Nintendo plans to ship 4 million units of the DS worldwide in the next five months.)

Now that statement was made last October... could something have changed? Possibly....

who to believe... who to believe....
 
btrboyev said:
its more than that..didn't some peeps that live in japan that know people on the inside saying it was losing almost $200 a unit.

I'd say that ridiculous.

The LCD would have to cost over $200 for the costs incurred to be that high.
 
Both systems will do fine. I know it's hard to accept for either side, but they will both coexist and lead happy and prosperous lives.
 
Endymion said:
Well, at least third parties sell something on Sony systems. I don't think they care about how much Nintendo games sell on Nintendo systems.
Yep, million selling brands can expect about 80-200k on PSP it seems. Can't wait until we see brands of that caliber on DS to gauge sales. ;)

As is, it seems 1st party software sells best on both machines so far.
 
2) I do think that Sony is going to lose hundreds of millions (or at least one hundred million) on PSP hardware. A disaster, as you called it. The PSP isn't going to magically start being cheaper for them to manufacture in the next couple months.. It takes time for those costs to come down and for wholesale part prices to come down.

Damn! Sony says the PSP will be profitable starting this SUMMER!

A disaster....? :lol
 
3rd party software will eventually make up the bulk of PSP software sales eventually.

Sony has Hot Shots Golf and Gran Turismo, but aside from that they really don't have many huge franchises for Japan.
 
soundwave05 said:
I'd say that ridiculous.

The LCD would have to cost over $200 for the costs incurred to be that high.
Clearly ridiculous, the screens are obvisouly $50 since that's what I can get a PSone LCD for. :P

Seriously though, I think you're severly underestimating screen costs here... though I do agree the value pack was a smart move and probably helped blunt initial losses a lot (weren't something like 70% of JP launch sales the VP?). I wouldn't mind seeing someone with a good grasp of component pricing try and break down the per unit costs of DS & PSP...
 
If the PSP LCD really costs $200 to manufacture even at a rate of 1 million/month, Nintendo should flush any hopes they have of a Game Boy Next being PSP to GCN level in power/quality down the toliet right now.

I'd say my estimates are more reasonable given that Sony has officially said they will start to profit off hardware by summer. Unless there's some technology windfall in the next few months that means they're probably losing $30-$50/unit right now.

Maybe even less with that "Value Pack" option they have in Japan.
 
If the PSP LCD really costs $200 to manufacture even at a rate of 1 million/month, Nintendo should flush any hopes they have of a Game Boy Next being PSP to GCN level in power down the toliet right now.

why? The prices will only go down..and two nintendo can afford to take losses too if they are desperate.
 
CloudNL said:
Damn! Sony says the PSP will be profitable starting this SUMMER!

A disaster....? :lol


Sony also says 100K are being sold a week, then this clearly isn't the case. Unless some gaming shop has 200K+ PSPs in the back...

Edit: Point being, what sony says doesn't mean shit. I mean look at the thing. You think it could be manufactured for a cost of less than $180?
 
I'd say my estimates are more reasonable given that Sony has officially said they will start to profit off hardware by summer. Unless there's some technology windfall in the next few months that means they're probably losing $30-$50/unit right now.

I don't believe they will profit by summer, they are already having production troubles in japan and they still have to bulk up to make a US and EU launch.
 
The big difference between Nintendo and Sony is Nintendo operates on the OTHER side of the fence entirely.

They insist on making money off portable hardware (and a large chunck at that), meaning the DS hardware you're getting for $150, does not really cost Nintendo $150 to make.

Sony is willing to take a loss or sell closer to cost on their product. That more than anything is why there's just a gap between the DS and PSP tech wise. Its not neccessarily because Sony is willing to lose some ridiculous amount on hardware, its that they're willing to take on a different sales philosophy.

Sony doesn't need the PSP to be the same "monster cash cow" that Nintendo needs out of their portables, because Sony's console division is much more profitable than Nintendo's.
 
GDJustin said:
Sony also says 100K are being sold a week, then this clearly isn't the case. Unless some gaming shop has 200K+ PSPs in the back...

Where is the article with this statement BTW? And is the statement referencing a specific time period?
 
The big difference between Nintendo and Sony is Nintendo operates on the OTHER side of the fence entirely.

They insist on making money off portable hardware (and a large chunck at that), meaning the DS hardware you're getting for $150, does not really cost Nintendo $150 to make.

Sony is willing to take a loss or sell closer to cost on their product.

That's just a difference in sales philosophy. Sony doesn't need the PSP to be the same "monster cash cow" that Nintendo needs out of their portables, because Sony's console division is much more profitable than Nintendo's.

I'm willing to bet nintendo isn't making much profit off of DS, if not barely breaking even.
 
GDJustin said:
Edit: Point being, what sony says doesn't mean shit. I mean look at the thing. You think it could be manufactured for a cost of less than $180?

What does it matter?
they said on two accounts that the unit will be profitable before fall (the latest)
 
btrboyev said:
I'm willing to bet nintendo isn't making much profit off of DS, if not barely breaking even.

Doubtful.

They probably don't make as high of a margin off the DS as they did with the GBA SP, but it's probably nothing to scoff at either, since it carries a $70 higher price tag (which at a manufacturing level, when you're talking about 1 million or more being made/month can cover *a lot* in terms of components).
 
soundwave05 said:
In Japan most games have their highest sales on the first day of release.

So if BH4 got outsold on day one, even if it outsold the other titles for the rest of the week, it doesn't neccessarily out do the other titles.

Its like if you have a movie and it opens at no.3 for the opening weekend, but then is no.1 for the weekdays ... it doesn't mean that movie has made more money simply because its spent more days at no.1. The opening weekend is where the bulk of movie tickets are sold.

True, but however, nobody seems to be able to answer that guy's question. Famitisu or Media Create #s? Where's the link? It's hard to believe that RE 4 sold like 115,000 on the first day and then sold 25,000 for the next 6 in that week. Those software #s are pretty low in general, even for Radiata Stories.
 
All this ballyhoo, and I'm not sure I even saw which source these numbers are from? Anyway, I added them up with Media Create numbers of the past:

dspspabcdefg.gif
 
soundwave05 said:
If the PSP LCD really costs $200 to manufacture even at a rate of 1 million/month, Nintendo should flush any hopes they have of a Game Boy Next being PSP to GCN level in power/quality down the toliet right now.

I'd say my estimates are more reasonable given that Sony has officially said they will start to profit off hardware by summer. Unless there's some technology windfall in the next few months that means they're probably losing $30-$50/unit right now.

Maybe even less with that "Value Pack" option they have in Japan.
Well, I too doubt the screen is $200 per unit but that is sort of what we were hearing pre-launch. Who knows how Sony's planning to get costs down, could be to ramped up production driving economies of scale, could be creative accounting and offloading investment to SEL, or it could be some combination of the two. I wouldn't take Sony's word as gospel though, they're in a tight situation financially right now company wide and are pushing PSP as their magic iPod/GameBoy killing savior. They could start making a per unit profit this summer, but I've got a feeling that involves a lot of factors falling perfectly in line...


soundwave05 said:
3rd party software will eventually make up the bulk of PSP software sales eventually.

Sony has Hot Shots Golf and Gran Turismo, but aside from that they really don't have many huge franchises for Japan.
Here's the current software standings just for comparison...


Famitsu (as of Jan 16, 2005)

DS Top 10
01 WarioWare Touched! (577,926) Nintendo
02 Super Mario 64 DS (560,175) Nintendo
03 Pokemon Dash (265,522) The Pokemon Company
04 Jam With The Band (113,375) Nintendo
05 Feel the Magic: XY/XX (82,588) Sega
06 Polarium (73,857) Nintendo
07 Kenshuui Tendo Dokuta (59,548) Spike
08 Puyo Pop Fever (44,417) Sega
09 Mr.Driller: Drill Spirits (26,529) Namco
10 Tennis no Oujisama 2005 Crystal Drive (24,550) Konami

PSP Top 10
01 Hot Shots Golf Portable (227,782) SCEI
02 Ridge Racer (185,976) Namco
03 Dynasty Warriors (180,423) Koei
04 Metal Gear Ac!d (75,909) Konami
05 Eiyuu Densetsu Gagharv Trilogy: Shiroki Majo (60,377) Bandai
06 Dokodemo Issyo (56,649) SCEI
07 Kotoba no Puzzle Mojipittan Daijiten (54,992) Namco
08 Ape Escape Academy (51,823) SCEI
09 Armored Core: Formula Front (11,210) From Software
10 DarkStalkers Chronicle: The Chaos Tower (9,695) Capcom


NPD DS Top 10 (as of December 2004)
01 Super Mario 64 DS (651,748) Nintendo
02 Spider-Man: The Movie 2 (242,228) Activision
03 Madden NFL 2005 (122,504) Electronic Arts
04 Asphalt Urban GT (110,750) UbiSoft
05 Urbz: The Sims in the City (103,573) Electronic Arts
06 Ridge Racer DS (54,728) Namco
07 Feel the Magic: XY/XX (41,778) Sega
08 Mr.Driller: Drill Spirits (30,823) Namco
09 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (28,829) Electronic Arts
10 Ping Pals (23,325) THQ
 
Does anyone know if the sales off Sony's site for PSP are calculated into these sales? If they aren't then that could make up for the difference.
 
jarrod said:
NPD DS Top 10 (as of December 2004)
01 Super Mario 64 DS (651,748) Nintendo
02 Spider-Man: The Movie 2 (242,228) Activision
03 Madden NFL 2005 (122,504) Electronic Arts
04 Asphalt Urban GT (110,750) UbiSoft
05 Urbz: The Sims in the City (103,573) Electronic Arts
06 Ridge Racer DS (54,728) Namco
07 Feel the Magic: XY/XX (41,778) Sega
08 Mr.Driller: Drill Spirits (30,823) Namco
09 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (28,829) Electronic Arts
10 Ping Pals (23,325) THQ

Of the 3 you posted this is the most surprising... I expected more Nintendo titles t obe in the top 10... how many 1st party titles are there for the DS anyway?
 
DarienA said:
Of the 3 you posted this is the most surprising... I expected more Nintendo titles t obe in the top 10... how many 1st party titles are there for the DS anyway?
Only one in the US so far, Japan was overloaded with Nintendo titles at launch due to the PSP's early release. It's rather obvious and more reason why only Nintendo games are selling well, they're just getting all the launch attention. The US is another matter.
 
For them to even entertain thoughts of making a profit by summer/fall they can't be losing like $150/unit right now.

So in all likelyhood my price estimates are probably closer to the mark, losing $20-$50 a unit now, bringing that into profitibility within the next 6-8 months.

And yeah, the bulk of PSP software sold will eventually be third party stuff (moreso than the DS), I don't think anyone would seriously argue against that. In the US, even though Nintendo only published a single game, that game outsold the next five best selling DS software titles combined.
 
PSP is still able to boast a 'launch' boom due to the relatively long period it's taken for it to become reasonably well available, while the DS has been freely available for a couple of months. It's inevitable it'll outsell it at present.
 
DarthWufei said:
It's rather obvious and more reason why only Nintendo games are selling well, they're just getting all the launch attention. The US is another matter.
Sega's doing pretty well in Japan too. Kimishine's a surprising success given it's bizarre nature and weak brand appeal, makes me wonder if UGA backed the wrong horse in 2001. Rez might've been what Monkey Ball became. And Puyo Fever is doing amazing for essentially a WiFi upgraded GBA port... it's outselling the PSP version 5 to 1 too.
 
jarrod said:
Here's the current software standings just for comparison...


Famitsu (as of Jan 16, 2005)

DS Top 10
01 WarioWare Touched! (577,926) Nintendo
02 Super Mario 64 DS (560,175) Nintendo
03 Pokemon Dash (265,522) The Pokemon Company
04 Jam With The Band (113,375) Nintendo
05 Feel the Magic: XY/XX (82,588) Sega
06 Polarium (73,857) Nintendo
07 Kenshuui Tendo Dokuta (59,548) Spike
08 Puyo Pop Fever (44,417) Sega
09 Mr.Driller: Drill Spirits (26,529) Namco
10 Tennis no Oujisama 2005 Crystal Drive (24,550) Konami

PSP Top 10
01 Hot Shots Golf Portable (227,782) SCEI
02 Ridge Racer (185,976) Namco
03 Dynasty Warriors (180,423) Koei
04 Metal Gear Ac!d (75,909) Konami
05 Eiyuu Densetsu Gagharv Trilogy: Shiroki Majo (60,377) Bandai
06 Dokodemo Issyo (56,649) SCEI
07 Kotoba no Puzzle Mojipittan Daijiten (54,992) Namco
08 Ape Escape Academy (51,823) SCEI
09 Armored Core: Formula Front (11,210) From Software
10 DarkStalkers Chronicle: The Chaos Tower (9,695) Capcom


NPD DS Top 10 (as of December 2004)
01 Super Mario 64 DS (651,748) Nintendo
02 Spider-Man: The Movie 2 (242,228) Activision
03 Madden NFL 2005 (122,504) Electronic Arts
04 Asphalt Urban GT (110,750) UbiSoft
05 Urbz: The Sims in the City (103,573) Electronic Arts
06 Ridge Racer DS (54,728) Namco
07 Feel the Magic: XY/XX (41,778) Sega
08 Mr.Driller: Drill Spirits (30,823) Namco
09 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (28,829) Electronic Arts
10 Ping Pals (23,325) THQ



So for japan tie ratio for both is...
(for top 10 that is)

DS= 1.18
PSP= 1.31


For the DS to equal the tie ratio of PSP it would have to have 198,083 more software units sold and that is not including the titles you can't see pasted the top 10 for PSP as well. So PSP is getting some good numbers despite not having a lot int he top 10.
 
jarrod said:
Sega's doing pretty well in Japan too. Kimishine's a surprising success given it's bizarre nature and weak brand appeal, makes me wonder if UGA backed the wrong horse in 2001. Rez might've been what Monkey Ball became. And Puyo Fever is doing amazing for essentially a WiFi upgraded GBA port... it's outselling the PSP version 5 to 1 too.
Yeah that's definitely true, I was kind of surprised seing Kimishine break the solid set of Nintendo games.

Hmm, Puyo is just a wifi upgraded GBA port? Eh... it's got voice acting and music comparable to the console versions. I think it's much more of a substantial buy than the GBA versions. The PSP version only seems to have one thing over the two and that's visual quality, it's higher res and a much more fluid animation style. But it doesn't use the pure 3D playfields like the console versions I believe, and the wifi mode is a little bit of a let down for me when sat next to 8 players via a single card. Maybe I'm a tad mistaken on some things though.. do either offer new modes of play?
 
Chittagong said:
Nintendo DS costs slightly over 100 USD to make.

Yup, I could see that.

The profit ratio probably isn't that different from what Nintendo did with the GBA when that launched (which I heard cost about $50 to manufacture initially and was sold at $100).
 
On Resident Evil 4:

I was expecting it to sell about 150k first week in Japan. Was only off by about 5k so :).

It also sold about 80% of the initial shipment of 185k, which is pretty good. I don't think it'll have long legs like some are hoping for. Though it deserves to, I don't see the game breaking 50k for its second week. Should outsell RE there in the long run, however.
 
AniHawk said:
On Resident Evil 4:

I was expecting it to sell about 150k first week in Japan. Was only off by about 5k so :).

It also sold about 80% of the initial shipment of 185k, which is pretty good. I don't think it'll have long legs like some are hoping for. Though it deserves to, I don't see the game breaking 50k for its second week. Should outsell RE there in the long run, however.

what's your Jan NPD RE4 prediction? I am going with 200K.
 
soundwave05 said:
Those are the core costs, but I seriously, seriously, seriously doubt a 4.5 inch LCD, 32MB of RAM, and a WiFi chip (even the DS has one of these) costs Sony $200 alone to manufacture. Infact I doubt those three components cost Sony more than $100 all together.
I've already long since put my own guesstimates against these components but I did want to point out that there's apparently 64 meg of RAM in the PSP, where apparently 32 meg of is flash memory for OS/firmware updates. Its a single 64 meg module they get from Samsung apparently. Bumps cost up a little bit.
 
SantaCruZer said:
Well maybe 200K is too optimistic as usual. Metroid Prime 2 didn't even break 200K in November when I think abotu it.

I've been seeing some pretty positive things about RE4 where I work. Everyone except one person who doesn't like horror has been raving about it, and we've sold more copies of this game than Mercenaries and Punisher on both systems combined so far (but not by very much).

Still, I like to keep my guesses conservative, and I was going for 150k way before the game was released.
 
kaching said:
I've already long since put my own guesstimates against these components but I did want to point out that there's apparently 64 meg of RAM in the PSP, where apparently 32 meg of is flash memory for OS/firmware updates. Its a single 64 meg module they get from Samsung apparently. Bumps cost up a little bit.
But of the 32MB spec, only 24MB is available for game data with the remaining 8MB for OS... I can't imagine PSP really needs 40MB total for the OS? Also, are the JP models 64MB?
 
AniHawk said:
I've been seeing some pretty positive things about RE4 where I work. Everyone except one person who doesn't like horror has been raving about it, and we've sold more copies of this game than Mercenaries and Punisher on both systems combined so far (but not by very much).

Still, I like to keep my guesses conservative, and I was going for 150k way before the game was released.

Yeah it would be wise to keep a low profile.
 
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