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July 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 8th
Bitch Pudding
Member
MatPiscatella
Member
We all know how that's gonna end...
When demand isn't normalized due to supply, sometimes this is the best you can do!
BlackBuzzard
Banned
[NSW] 250K
[PS4] 235K
[XB1] 101K
[PS4] 235K
[XB1] 101K
I am just doing it for fun. You actually have to do this for your job. Must be tough.
We all know how that's gonna end...
I have been like Ash since Switch released. I don't think I have gotten with 50k of Switch number even once.
MatPiscatella
Member
I bang on Excel, look at Twitter/GAF, and then write and talk about video games all day. 99.99% of people have a tougher gig than mine. But I appreciate what you're saying.
thestopsign
Member
[NSW] 300K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 100K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 100K
Welfare
Member
I'm just guessing (and hoping) July saw close to 300K in stock. Something like ~35K for the first 2 weeks (trying to normalize a bottom that Nintendo could ship a week that doesn't account for a big game releasing that week), +100K for Splatoon 2, then maybe 80K-100K for the 4th week. This is assuming USA is prioritized along with Japan for brand new stock from ramped up production towards the end of the month.
Anything 250K and up, I'd be fine with even if I'm off by +10K. <250K and I'm gonna start questioning some things with Nintendo.
Anything 250K and up, I'd be fine with even if I'm off by +10K. <250K and I'm gonna start questioning some things with Nintendo.
Stilton Disco
Member
[NSW] 250K
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 80K
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 80K
theprodigy
Member
aww fuck I'm late cause almost no internet on vacation
uh lemme make a for fun entry real quick
[PS4] 250k
[NSW] 225k
[XB1] 120k
uh lemme make a for fun entry real quick
[PS4] 250k
[NSW] 225k
[XB1] 120k
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Everything you are saying makes me nod my head in agreement, but I still find myself doubting Nintendo's ability to do what makes sense. I can totally see a senario where they handled the Splatoon launch by gimping the US stock to make Japan bundles rather then prioritize both. However, I could be dead wrong. Hopefully they get stock sorted out sooner rather than later. Christmas is just around the corner...
I think Splatoon 2 is going to be over 500K for July on the NPD.
It opened around 800K in Japan and although it's not as big in the US I do expect a very strong opening - below BotW above MK8D(because it only had a few days in Aprils NPD)
In terms of markets this is the expectations I have:
Japan(+-800K) > NA > France > Germany(below 100K for July) > UK(around 40K for July) > Spain
Japan
M-C: 753.411
Famitsu: 800.394
Germany:
2nd for July
no BIU award thus under 100K for July
France:
2 weeks in 1st position in weekly rankings
UK
[Week 30, 2017] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 12,300 / 40,300 (-56%)
Amazon Annual Charts(just video game SKUs)
US: 4th
France: 9th
Canada: 12th
Germany: 15th
UK: 31st
Depending on NPD figures and eShop Sales it's going to be around 2 million for launch month. Splatoon on the Wii U took a little under a month to sale 1 million copies, something the sequel did easily during it's launch week.
It opened around 800K in Japan and although it's not as big in the US I do expect a very strong opening - below BotW above MK8D(because it only had a few days in Aprils NPD)
In terms of markets this is the expectations I have:
Japan(+-800K) > NA > France > Germany(below 100K for July) > UK(around 40K for July) > Spain
Japan
M-C: 753.411
Famitsu: 800.394
Germany:
2nd for July
no BIU award thus under 100K for July
France:
2 weeks in 1st position in weekly rankings
UK
[Week 30, 2017] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 12,300 / 40,300 (-56%)
Amazon Annual Charts(just video game SKUs)
US: 4th
France: 9th
Canada: 12th
Germany: 15th
UK: 31st
Depending on NPD figures and eShop Sales it's going to be around 2 million for launch month. Splatoon on the Wii U took a little under a month to sale 1 million copies, something the sequel did easily during it's launch week.
Papacheeks
Banned
Physical today, and then Physical+Digital is next week.
Obliterator
Member
All I'll add is the last monthish has seen much better supply for Switch. Especially the last 2 or 3 weeks is a big improvement
kinda like what happened too in Japan.
MatPiscatella
Member
The media release with all the info we release comes next week. Today is the confidential physical release for clients.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Any leak?
I know people already has the data in hands
We can only hope that last month's leaker wasn't caught by ninjas.
(Saw a couple of ninjas asking for the link to the source last month)
Humdinger
Gold Member
That sounds dirty.
I'll pray for his safety, those ninjas are bad people.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago
Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)
Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)
Splatoon 2 #1 332k
Those are good Splatoon 2 numbers, but I thought it might do a bit better. Wonder if those #s include digital sales. I'd assume not.
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago
Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)
Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)
Splatoon 2 #1 332k
The leak missed one?
ethomaz
Banned
Physical only.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Gotdatmoney
Member
I expected better Splatoon 2 numbers. Will have to see what digital looks like.
perfectchaos007
Member
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago
Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)
Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)
Splatoon 2 #1 332k
I'm surprised Nintendo hasn't released a PR statement touting the Switch as July's #1 best selling console, along with Spla2oon being the #1 best selling game.
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago
Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)
Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)
Splatoon 2 #1 332k
No Xbox1?
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago
Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)
Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)
Splatoon 2 #1 332k
No XB1 numbers?
Also thought Splatoon 2 would do better.
Underwhelming for Splatoon 2, I expected it to open better than MK8D due to longer period/more switch owners.
In terms of the Switch just shows that Nintendo concentrated the supply to Japan for the Splatoon 2 launch. There was slightly more supply for NA but not the type of jump we've seen in Japan.
In terms of the Switch just shows that Nintendo concentrated the supply to Japan for the Splatoon 2 launch. There was slightly more supply for NA but not the type of jump we've seen in Japan.
KillerMan91
Member
Damn. After increases Japan saw for Switch hw I expected much better supply in US too for July. Switch again screwed my prediction.
Dougieflesh
Member
I wonder if Xb1 was below the 3DS?