sonycowboy
Member
OVERVIEW
On Tuesday afternoon, NPD Funworld released the June 2004 (five-week period ending July 3, 2004) TRSTS data for U.S. console video game software retail sales. Total sales were $380 million, up 55% sequentially from Mays $245 million, and up 12% compared to June 2003s $339 million. Year-to-date sales are $2,079 million compared with 2003 year-to-date sales of $2,048 million (a year-over-year increase of 2%).
The overall sales figures were significantly higher than our expectations of $355 million (up 5%). We believe that the higher sales level is due to a combination of the mid-May price cut on the PS2 to $149 and the release of several blockbuster games in June. We had expected a smaller rebound in June, with releases such as Full Spectrum Warrior, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Driver 3 and Spider-Man 2 comparing favorably with last Junes Lara Croft Tomb Raider and Resident Evil. June sales were led by continued strong sales of Activisions Shrek 2 (PS2, GC, Xbox, GBA, PC). The top June releases were Activisions Spider-Man 2 (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), Ataris DRIV3R (PS2 and Xbox), Electronic Arts Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (PS2, Xbox, GC), and THQs Full Spectrum Warrior (Xbox).
We continue to be optimistic that a number of blockbuster titles and strong holiday sales will allow the U.S. console software market to deliver 10% year-over-year growth (up from 5% in 2003), and believe that the sharp rebound in sales growth in June signals similar sales strength in future months, as a very strong slate of games is scheduled to be released over the rest of the year.
So far in 2004, ASPs have been relatively flat, with ASPs through June down only 1%. Unit sales through June are also relatively flat year-over-year, up 2%. We think that it is important to note that last June, year-to-date ASPs declined by 7.4% over the prior year. For 2003, ASPs were down by 7%, with prices holding steady over the last six months of the year as sales were dominated by a greater mix of newly released games. Our 10% growth forecast presumes an increase of 23% in unit sales, offset by a 12% decline in ASPs. We believe that it is likely that ASPs for 2004 will decline by less than our forecast, and may end up being close to flat for the year. Given the large contribution expected later in the year from games such as Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Halo 2, Gran Turismo 4, Mortal Kombat: Deception, and several others, we think that our 10% growth forecast may turn out to be too conservative.
There were 12 games selling more than 100,000 units apiece in June vs. our estimate of 12 and compared to three last month. The top 200 games (out of 3,000 games sold) captured 59% of unit sales and 68% of dollar sales, compared with 58% of unit sales and 68% of dollar sales in May, while the top 10 captured 17% of dollar sales in June versus 17% last month. These figures reflect the relative sales strength for new releases, and we expect higher contributions from the top sellers for the balance of 2004. The average selling price of all games (console and handheld, legacy and current generation) was $29.31, up 4% from last years $28.28 ASP. We expect a greater proliferation of catalog games and a handful of $39.99 titles (notably, Harry Potter) to drive ASPs slightly lower over the next two months, with ASPs ranging between $29 and $30, followed in October by an increase in ASPs.
Top Selling Games By Platform For June 2004 (Retail Sales $)
PS2 Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 Activision 10,038,050 $ 205,575
2 DRIV3R Atari 7,041,583 $ 142,295
3 SHREK 2 Activision 5,432,124 $ 125,911
4 MVP BASEBALL 2004 Electronic Arts 4,701,471 $ 98,240
5 HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN Electronic Arts 4,691,477 $ 117,787
Xbox Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 FULL SPECTRUM WARRIOR THQ 9,391,057 $ 190,004
2 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 Activision 6,791,006 $ 138,042
3 CHRONICLES OF RIDDICK Vivendi Universal 6,432,399 $ 130,572
4 DRIV3R Atari 4,743,799 $ 95,853
5 HALO Microsoft 2,968,140 $ 100,016
GC Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 ZELDA: FOUR SWORDS Nintendo 7,656,926 $ 155,067
2 HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN Electronic Arts 3,331,438 $ 83,821
3 SHREK 2 Activision 3,272,307 $ 71,924
4 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 Activision 3,020,518 $ 61,415
5 POKEMON COLOSSEUM Nintendo 2,302,391 $ 46,997
GBA Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 MARIO VS. DONKEY KONG Nintendo 3,131,446 $ 102,511
2 SHREK 2 Activision 2,677,619 $ 89,683
3 HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN Electronic Arts 2,202,763 $ 74,397
4 SONIC ADVANCE 3 THQ 2,144,672 $ 72,278
5 SUPER MARIO CLASSIC Nintendo 2,144,496 $ 110,627
June 2004 Market Share Rankings (Top 20 Companies)
Total (millions) 380 $
Company Projected $'s Market Share
1 ELECTRONIC ARTS 61 $ 16.2%
2 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 48 $ 12.7%
3 ACTIVISION 43 $ 11.3%
4 THQ 27 $ 7.1%
5 ATARI 26 $ 6.8%
6 VIVENDI UNIVERSAL (CORP) 18 $ 4.7%
7 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP) 17 $ 4.5%
8 SONY (CORP) 15 $ 3.9%
9 UBISOFT (CORP) 13 $ 3.5%
10 KONAMI OF AMERICA 12 $ 3.2%
11 MIDWAY 12 $ 3.2%
12 CAPCOM USA 11 $ 3.0%
13 MICROSOFT (CORP) 9 $ 2.4%
14 NAMCO 9 $ 2.4%
15 SEGA OF AMERICA 7 $ 1.9%
16 MAJESCO 7 $ 1.7%
17 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT (CORP) 6 $ 1.7%
18 EIDOS INTERACTIVE (CORP) 6 $ 1.5%
19 SQUARE ENIX INC (CORP) 4 $ 1.2%
20 LUCASARTS 3 $ 0.8%
On Tuesday afternoon, NPD Funworld released the June 2004 (five-week period ending July 3, 2004) TRSTS data for U.S. console video game software retail sales. Total sales were $380 million, up 55% sequentially from Mays $245 million, and up 12% compared to June 2003s $339 million. Year-to-date sales are $2,079 million compared with 2003 year-to-date sales of $2,048 million (a year-over-year increase of 2%).
The overall sales figures were significantly higher than our expectations of $355 million (up 5%). We believe that the higher sales level is due to a combination of the mid-May price cut on the PS2 to $149 and the release of several blockbuster games in June. We had expected a smaller rebound in June, with releases such as Full Spectrum Warrior, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Driver 3 and Spider-Man 2 comparing favorably with last Junes Lara Croft Tomb Raider and Resident Evil. June sales were led by continued strong sales of Activisions Shrek 2 (PS2, GC, Xbox, GBA, PC). The top June releases were Activisions Spider-Man 2 (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), Ataris DRIV3R (PS2 and Xbox), Electronic Arts Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (PS2, Xbox, GC), and THQs Full Spectrum Warrior (Xbox).
We continue to be optimistic that a number of blockbuster titles and strong holiday sales will allow the U.S. console software market to deliver 10% year-over-year growth (up from 5% in 2003), and believe that the sharp rebound in sales growth in June signals similar sales strength in future months, as a very strong slate of games is scheduled to be released over the rest of the year.
So far in 2004, ASPs have been relatively flat, with ASPs through June down only 1%. Unit sales through June are also relatively flat year-over-year, up 2%. We think that it is important to note that last June, year-to-date ASPs declined by 7.4% over the prior year. For 2003, ASPs were down by 7%, with prices holding steady over the last six months of the year as sales were dominated by a greater mix of newly released games. Our 10% growth forecast presumes an increase of 23% in unit sales, offset by a 12% decline in ASPs. We believe that it is likely that ASPs for 2004 will decline by less than our forecast, and may end up being close to flat for the year. Given the large contribution expected later in the year from games such as Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Halo 2, Gran Turismo 4, Mortal Kombat: Deception, and several others, we think that our 10% growth forecast may turn out to be too conservative.
There were 12 games selling more than 100,000 units apiece in June vs. our estimate of 12 and compared to three last month. The top 200 games (out of 3,000 games sold) captured 59% of unit sales and 68% of dollar sales, compared with 58% of unit sales and 68% of dollar sales in May, while the top 10 captured 17% of dollar sales in June versus 17% last month. These figures reflect the relative sales strength for new releases, and we expect higher contributions from the top sellers for the balance of 2004. The average selling price of all games (console and handheld, legacy and current generation) was $29.31, up 4% from last years $28.28 ASP. We expect a greater proliferation of catalog games and a handful of $39.99 titles (notably, Harry Potter) to drive ASPs slightly lower over the next two months, with ASPs ranging between $29 and $30, followed in October by an increase in ASPs.
Top Selling Games By Platform For June 2004 (Retail Sales $)
PS2 Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 Activision 10,038,050 $ 205,575
2 DRIV3R Atari 7,041,583 $ 142,295
3 SHREK 2 Activision 5,432,124 $ 125,911
4 MVP BASEBALL 2004 Electronic Arts 4,701,471 $ 98,240
5 HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN Electronic Arts 4,691,477 $ 117,787
Xbox Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 FULL SPECTRUM WARRIOR THQ 9,391,057 $ 190,004
2 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 Activision 6,791,006 $ 138,042
3 CHRONICLES OF RIDDICK Vivendi Universal 6,432,399 $ 130,572
4 DRIV3R Atari 4,743,799 $ 95,853
5 HALO Microsoft 2,968,140 $ 100,016
GC Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 ZELDA: FOUR SWORDS Nintendo 7,656,926 $ 155,067
2 HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN Electronic Arts 3,331,438 $ 83,821
3 SHREK 2 Activision 3,272,307 $ 71,924
4 SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 Activision 3,020,518 $ 61,415
5 POKEMON COLOSSEUM Nintendo 2,302,391 $ 46,997
GBA Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 MARIO VS. DONKEY KONG Nintendo 3,131,446 $ 102,511
2 SHREK 2 Activision 2,677,619 $ 89,683
3 HARRY POTTER: AZKABAN Electronic Arts 2,202,763 $ 74,397
4 SONIC ADVANCE 3 THQ 2,144,672 $ 72,278
5 SUPER MARIO CLASSIC Nintendo 2,144,496 $ 110,627
June 2004 Market Share Rankings (Top 20 Companies)
Total (millions) 380 $
Company Projected $'s Market Share
1 ELECTRONIC ARTS 61 $ 16.2%
2 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 48 $ 12.7%
3 ACTIVISION 43 $ 11.3%
4 THQ 27 $ 7.1%
5 ATARI 26 $ 6.8%
6 VIVENDI UNIVERSAL (CORP) 18 $ 4.7%
7 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP) 17 $ 4.5%
8 SONY (CORP) 15 $ 3.9%
9 UBISOFT (CORP) 13 $ 3.5%
10 KONAMI OF AMERICA 12 $ 3.2%
11 MIDWAY 12 $ 3.2%
12 CAPCOM USA 11 $ 3.0%
13 MICROSOFT (CORP) 9 $ 2.4%
14 NAMCO 9 $ 2.4%
15 SEGA OF AMERICA 7 $ 1.9%
16 MAJESCO 7 $ 1.7%
17 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT (CORP) 6 $ 1.7%
18 EIDOS INTERACTIVE (CORP) 6 $ 1.5%
19 SQUARE ENIX INC (CORP) 4 $ 1.2%
20 LUCASARTS 3 $ 0.8%
