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[Baron Aloha]

you guys are forgetting the rest of the world were Xbox also outsells the Gamecube pretty much by the same margin as it does in America

If "the rest of the world" = only the UK and Australia you'd be correct. The Gamecube however fairs much better than Xbox in other European countries.

 

[human5892]

So soon? The $99 price cut was almost a year ago.

At the very least I think they should drop the GCN to $80 and do for Metroid what they did for Zelda last year. In addition to MP they should include a collector's disc with Metroid 1, 2, and Super Metroid.

In terms of price cuts (especially for Nintendo), I think less than a year since the last one is kind of soon. This is compounded by the fact that $99 is extremely cheap.

I think another collector's edition disc would do quite well, though.

 

[Lukas]

"I would say Xbox is at the very least 2 million ahead of the GC"

Even if they're ahead I doubt it's by that much. At E3 the GC was still leading the Xbox.

If you add up the Americas sales and take 75% of that for the other countries were Xbox follows the same trend its def at the least 2 million

 

[nubbe]

It’s impossible to estimate the European market. The different regions are very, very diverse when it comes to console preference.
You can’t judge the Europe market with only UK charts.

 

[Lukas]

If "the rest of the world" = only the UK and Australia you'd be correct. The Gamecube however fairs much better than Xbox in other European countries and Japan.

What are you talking about, Gamecube doesnt outsell Xbox in "other european" countries

 

[solarplexus]

$30 by September.

Or maybe a free copy if you buy the new Matrix game from Atari.

 

[Lukas]

Maybe Nintendo should put in a free gamecube in boxs of captin crunch and trix

 

[MaddenNFL64]

Yeah, they'll be around the same number by the end of this generation most likely.

20-25 million for both isn't bad though when you consider 3 competitors & one dominant Sony.

 

[Baron Aloha]

What are you talking about, Gamecube doesnt outsell Xbox in "other european" countries

I hate to disappoint you but yes, it does.

Maybe Nintendo should put in a free gamecube in boxs of captin crunch and trix

And maybe you should learn some facts and quit trolling.

 

[Lukas]

I hate to disappoint you but yes, it does.



And maybe you should learn some facts and quit trolling.

can you provide any links that say the cube outsells the xbox in "other european countries"

 

[GhaleonEB]

More evidence of Xbox's momentum gain. In the first full month after the one in which the PS2 was the only console to have a price drop, it still couldn't regain its share advantage over Xbox. Year-over-year sales speak loudly.

I agree. While the PS2 still dominated by about 150k this month, there is clearly momentum for the XBox. The market share numbers are a little misleading, since the Cube and PS2 both dropped a good percentage, while XBox grew year over year. If that trend continues, this year will be much, much tighter between PS2 and XBox than many thought, while the Cube will continue to bring up a distant rear.

 

[jarrod]

Are you putting an arbitrary timeline on this generation? PS2 will be @ 90 million by the middle of 2005. It should be @ 110 million by the middle of 2006.

I'd say the end of this generation is probably really the end of 2006 (when PS3 launches). My 90 million estimate is probably a little low... but I'd also say your estimates (20 million PS2s sold in 1 year, 40 million in 2) are somewhat high. The drop to $99 will fuel some significant momentum but that likely won't occur until PS3 is on shelves if Sony can help it and PS2 is currently past it's peak cycle (as are all the platforms). I'm not sure where you expect those significant sales to come from?

 

[Baron Aloha]

can you provide any links that say the cube outsells the xbox in "other european countries"

Not at the moment, but I'm sure several other forum members can vouch for me. I've read on several occasions that the Gamecube outsells the Xbox in Germany and Spain for instance.

 

[GhaleonEB]

can you provide any links that say the cube outsells the xbox in "other european countries"

I am also interested in this information. This contradicts all othe data I have read. The Cube outsold the XBox for a couple months in Europe after it's last price drop, but that trend has reversed completely.

 

[human5892]

Not at the moment, but I'm sure several other forum members can vouch for me. I've read on several occasions that the Gamecube outsells the Xbox in Germany and Spain for instance.

Yeah, I distinctly remember the Germany example.

And don't be hoisted by your own petard, Lukas: find us some facts proving the the Xbox outsells the GC in every single region of Europe.

 

[Lukas]

All i know is I read a link that was from CNN or some other site like that saying that after December of 2003 saying that the only place in the world the Cube has a stronghold on the Xbox was in Japan and everywhere else the Xbox was back on track

 

[AirBrian]

Maybe Nintendo should put in a free gamecube in boxs of captin crunch and trix

C'mon now. That's just unnecessary.

B. Trolling

Trolling is considered to be the act of purposely being disingenuous to an active discussion. Negative commentary on given topics is by no means disallowed; however, such comments should attempt to be substantiated. No matter your supposed intent, if the forum administrators perceive you as a troll making unsubstantiated comments in an attempt to provoke the forum body, actions may be taken by the administrators.

 

[SolidSnakex]

If that trend continues, this year will be much, much tighter between PS2 and XBox than many thought, while the Cube will continue to bring up a distant rear.

By much tighter, what do you mean? The PS2 outsold the Xbox without having any big exclusives while the Xbox had 2. Just imagine what it'll look like when the PS2's big guns start rolling out. I'm not saying that the Xbox won't sell well because it will, it's just not going to be that close at all.

 

[DopeyFish]

Not at the moment, but I'm sure several other forum members can vouch for me. I've read on several occasions that the Gamecube outsells the Xbox in Germany and Spain for instance.

France and Spain, not Germany and Spain.

But as Europe as an entirety I would put my bets on Xbox leading.

 

[human5892]

All i know is I read a link that was from CNN or some other site like that saying that after December of 2003 saying that the only place in the world the Cube has a stronghold on the Xbox was in Japan and everywhere else the Xbox was back on track

Well, even if you did find the actual link, I think I'd be hesitant to trust a mainstream source like CNN on videogame matters...and I'm sure I'm not alone on that one.

 

[jarrod]

Not at the moment, but I'm sure several other forum members can vouch for me. I've read on several occasions that the Gamecube outsells the Xbox in Germany and Spain for instance.

XBox leads in Germany actually. GC is ahead in Spain, France and Italy for major regions, while XBox leads in the UK, Germany and Scandanavia. Overall XBox is likely leading (as the UK and Germany are the two largest markets) but probably not by more than a million over the continent. XBox also has a commanding lead in Australia though. XBox probably has an overall western lead of between 2-3 million while GC has a Japanese lead of just over 3 million.

 

[MaddenNFL64]

Didn't many expect the XBox to outsell the PS2? I know I did. The XBox had so many games in June, of which I bought. I see this as a drop in momentum, and another sign that the status quo has not been altered.

 

[sonycowboy]

I'd say the end of this generation is probably really the end of 2006 (when PS3 launches). My 90 million estimate is probably a little low... but I'd also say your estimates (20 million PS2s sold in 1 year, 40 million in 2) are somewhat high. The drop to $99 will fuel some significant momentum but that likely won't occur until PS3 is on shelves if Sony can help it and PS2 is currently past it's peak cycle (as are all the platforms). I'm not sure where you expect those significant sales to come from?

This is where my optimism comes from.

My guess is the price will drop to $129 by E3 2005 and to $99 by the end of 2005 / early 2006

 

[Baron Aloha]

Well, even if you did find the actual link, I think I'd be hesitant to trust a mainstream source like CNN on videogame matters...and I'm sure I'm not alone on that one.

I was going to post the exact same thing. Mainstream media tends to just regurgitate PR and as we all know PR can be quite misleading.

 

[AirBrian]

France and Spain, not Germany and Spain.

But as Europe as an entirety I would put my bets on Xbox leading.

Exactly. Isn't GCN also ahead in Italy?

 

[human5892]

Didn't many expect the XBox to outsell the PS2? I know I did. The XBox had so many games in June, of which I bought. I see this as a drop in momentum, and another sign that the status quo has not been altered.

I didn't. The PS2's price drop always put it over the top in my mind.

I was quite surprised at just how successful the drop was, though.

 

[Baron Aloha]

XBox leads in Germany actually. GC is ahead in Spain, France and Italy for major regions, while XBox leads in the UK, Germany and Scandanavia. Overall XBox is likely leading (as the UK and Germany are the two largest markets) but probably not by more than a million over the continent. XBox probably has a western lead of 2-3 million while GC has a Japanese lead of just over 3 million.

I stand corrected for Germany then, though I could have swore I read that somewhere. Thanks for the information on the other countries.

 

[seismologist]

What I see from the chart is that Xbox had a small spike from the price drop during the months it was cheaper than the PS2.

Now that they're back to the same price the gap will grow back to normal.

 

[DopeyFish]

This is where my optimism comes from.

My guess is the price will drop to $129 by E3 2005 and to $99 by the end of 2005 / early 2006

Though by examining the chart, by pricing alone Xbox is on par with what PSX was. (in regards to console sales) Before... PSX really took off and slammed every record into the face of the earth that is

 

[AirBrian]

I stand corrected for Germany then, though I could have swore I read that somewhere. Thanks for the information on the other countries.

I remember the articles out of Germany after the price drop too. For awhile GCN was outselling Xbox, but since then has gone the other way.

 

[Red Dolphin]

you guys are forgetting the rest of the world were Xbox also outsells the Gamecube pretty much by the same margin as it does in America

I would say Xbox is at the very least 2 million ahead of the GC

only place GC outsells Xbox is in Japan and 50,000 a month there isnt making up for the rest of the world

Plus in Australia, GCN is the equivalent of Xbox in Japan. Not that Australia has much impact on world wide sales anyway, but Nintendo is really getting flogged here

 

[Ghost]

Xbox totally flopped in Germany for the first year or so, so much so that it was dropped by some retailers, thats probably where your idea came from JC, but MS turned it around with the price cuts and bundles, and now apparently its in the lead.

To my memory it has been months since anyone posted european hardware numbers except from the UK, so i doubt anyone making assumptions in this thread actually knows exactly what is going on.

 

[human5892]

Plus in Australia, GCN is the equivalent of Xbox in Japan. Not that Australia has much impact on world wide sales anyway, but Nintendo is really getting flogged here

I have no sympathy for Nintendo in Australia. Their advertising presence is astoundingly pitiful there, and from what I understand, they make very little effort to form effective software lineups, too, often taking inordinate amounts of time to bring games over.

 

[sonycowboy]

Though by examining the chart, by pricing alone Xbox is on par with what PSX was. Before... PSX really took off and slammed every record into the face of the earth that is

It's actually quite a bit ahead. In truth, the PSX was a bit of a slow starter, but it had a hell of a adolesence through middle-age.

 

[jarrod]

This is where my optimism comes from.

My guess is the price will drop to $129 by E3 2005 and to $99 by the end of 2005 / early 2006

Comparing PS1 directly to PS2 is disingenous though as PS2 had immediate momentum from being the market leader. The market's really only grown proportionately also, I don't really think you'll see PS2's maintain the same gains over PS1 in it's "budget console" cycle as it's "active console" cycle. And I really doubt you'll see PS2 move 40 million units in the next two years (I don't think it's ever moved 20 million units in an annual period to be honest, correct me if I'm wrong though).

Also, I think Sony will do everything they can to keep PS2 from the $99 price point until PS3 is released. $129 by mid 2005 and then $99 in fall 2006 seems more likely imo, unless Xenon does extraordinairly well.

 

[DopeyFish]

I have no sympathy for Nintendo in Australia. Their advertising presence is astoundingly pitiful there, and from what I understand, they make very little effort to form effective software lineups, too, often taking inordinate amounts of time to bring games over.

I see they're having a hard time nailing down aussie accent too

 

[Red Dolphin]

I have no sympathy for Nintendo in Australia. Their advertising presence is astoundingly pitiful there, and from what I understand, they make very little effort to form effective software lineups, too, often taking inordinate amounts of time to bring games over.

Yeah they have truely dropped the ball here in Australia. They were extremely strong during the N64 era with some great advertising and a decent software range in most stores. Now you are lucky to see any advertising in any catelogues, no tv ads, very limited software range (feels worse then N64 even though theres more software!) and a very bad image overall.

Which is why I decided to import.. hell its CHEAPER and I get it faster too!

 

[sonycowboy]

Comparing PS1 directly to PS2 is disingenous though as PS2 had immediate momentum from being the market leader. The market's really only grown proportionately also, I don't really think you'll see PS2's maintain the same gains over PS1 in it's "budget console" cycle as it's "active concsole" cycle. At the least, I really doubt you'll see PS2 move 40 million units in the next two years (I don't think it's ever moved 20 million units in an annual period to be honest).

Also, I think Sony will do everything they can to keep PS2 from the $99 price point until PS3 is released. $129 by mid 2005 and then $99 in fall 2006 seems more likely imo, unless Xenon does extraordinairly well.

1998/09/01 Price changes to 129 US Dollars.
1999/08/23 Price changes to 99 US Dollars.
2000/09 PlayStation "PS one" introduced. (SRP 99 US Dollars)

PSX dropped to $99 a full year ahead of the PS2 launch, not when it launched as I've seen many people here claim. It was the PSOne that launched almost alongside the PS2 that was at $99. It will hit $99 before the PS3 hits. That price point is far too important to have the system compete against it's successor. They'll give it some room to run just like last time.

 

[Lazy8s]

SolidSnakex:

By much tighter, what do you mean?

Year-over-year. The PS2 would have to beat Xbox worse than it ever has, by a long margin, to restore its old share advantage. By tighter, the implication is that Xbox will have closed the share gap significantly this year.

The PS2 outsold the Xbox without having any big exclusives while the Xbox had 2. Just imagine what it'll look like when the PS2's big guns start rolling out.

The popularity of the PS2's big franchises has already been established. Sequels will cause hardware spikes of course, but it's going to take some new blockbuster property to create more than proportional growth. Halo's continued sales, on the other hand, show that its effect on driving hardware still hasn't been fully established and that Halo 2 could gain better than proportional growth.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"The popularity of the PS2's big franchises has already been established. Sequels will cause hardware spikes of course, but it's going to take some new blockbuster property to create more than proportional growth."

Reminds me of the "PS2 won't sell that well anymore, everyone already has one" line. With GTA SA, GT4 and MGS3 all releasing in less than a months timespan, you can bet there's going to be very significant sales spikes.

 

[psycho_snake]

I've been adding up hardware numbers for a lang time now and for the first time, Xbox is ahead of GC. even though the difference in consoles sold is very samll, it is the lead that GC has been having all along. These are the surrent sale numbers (I cant find any current european numbers)

North America
PlayStation 2 – 24,390,457
Xbox – 9,358,844
GameCube – 7,743,016
Game Boy Advance – 22,817,729545

Japan / Asia
PlayStation 2 – 16,756,662
Xbox – 1,406,430
GameCube – 3,463,899
Game Boy Advance – 13,206,778

Europe / PAL
PlayStation 2 – 24,560,000
Xbox – 3,700,000
GameCube – 3,110,000
Game Boy Advance – 12,980,000

Worldwide
PlayStation 2 – 65,707,119
Xbox – 14,465,274
GameCube – 14,316,915
Game Boy Advance – 49,004,507

Difference between Gamecube and Xbox = 148,359 (Xbox leading)

 

[jarrod]

1998/09/01 Price changes to 129 US Dollars.
1999/08/23 Price changes to 99 US Dollars.
2000/09 PlayStation "PS one" introduced. (SRP 99 US Dollars)

PSX dropped to $99 a full year ahead of the PS2 launch, not when it launched as I've seen many people here claim. It was the PSOne that launched almost alongside the PS2 that was at $99. It will hit $99 before the PS3 hits. That price point is far too important to have the system compete against it's successor. They'll give it some room to run just like last time.

Oh you're right! Hmm, then I'd probably expect Sony to drop PS2 to $99 in late 2005/early 2006 also, with maybe a PStwo redesign to compliment PS3 at the end of 2006. Still 40 million consoles in two years is an awfully ambitious prediction... can I ask what you expect GBA to wind up at in a similar timeframe?

 

[jarrod]

Japan / Asia
Xbox – 1,406,430

Uh... did XBox move a million units in Korea/Hong Kong? Why didn't anyone tell me?

 

[human5892]

Difference between Gamecube and Xbox = 148,359 (Xbox leading)

Assuming your figures are correct, given the uncertainty of Europe, we have no way of knowing who is actually ahead, since that's such a negligable lead.

As I said earlier:

I think at this point, it's so close between the GC and Xbox that it would be hard to say conclusively who is number two, especially since concrete European sales figures are hard/impossible to come by.

 

[jarrod]

Europe / PAL
PlayStation 2 – 24,560,000
Xbox – 3,700,000
GameCube – 3,110,000
Game Boy Advance – 12,980,000

Man, Europe really is Sony country... those GBA sales are pathetic. :/

 

[psycho_snake]

Uh... did XBox move a million units in Korea/Hong Kong? Why didn't anyone tell me?

oops, that looks wrong. does anyone know what its supposed to be?

 

[Lazy8s]

SolidSnakex:

Reminds me of the "PS2 won't sell that well anymore, everyone already has one" line. With GTA SA, GT4 and MGS3 all releasing in less than a months timespan, you can bet there's going to be very significant sales spikes.

Spike, but not momentum shift against the Xbox... unless there's some reason for believing those sequels have some completely new appeal to bring in a new audience (plus the old audience, and beyond proportional/natural growth from the total userbase) that the prequels didn't have.

 

[psycho_snake]

Assuming your figures are correct, given the uncertainty of Europe, we have no way of knowing who is actually ahead, since that's such a negligable lead.

As I said earlier:

Well, that could be true, i guess the only way that either console is gonna take second place for good is if they have a major title. Xbox have halo 2 and Nintendo have Zelda, but will it be too late?

 

[Baron Aloha]

oops, that looks wrong. does anyone know what its supposed to be?

I don't know but Xbox has sold 446,632 units in Japan since it's launch and I doubt that the rest of Asia would even manage to match that amount, let alone more than double it.

 

[psycho_snake]

SolidSnakex:

Spike, but not momentum shift against the Xbox... unless there's some reason for believing those sequels have some completely new appeal to bring in a new audience (plus the old audience, and beyond proportional/natural growth from the total userbase) that the prequels didn't have.

I really dont like it when people compare PS2 to Xbox in sales. There is a difference of 50 million between them and that difference is only gonna get bigger.