Do people really still believe this policy has anything to do with piracy?
The only time the effects of this policy have anything to do with piracy are when by chance one of the people banned in this manner does not get unbanned because they actually did pirate the game and can't provide "sufficient evidence". It isn't even intentional on their part that the policy banned a pirate in this case.
This policy exists only to penalize and dissuade people from playing a game on LIVE before certain dates. We know this because that is the only thing this policy directly affects. This policy acts as a deterrent (the ban) to something they do not want to happen (LIVE playing of a pre-street date title); whether you are a pirate or a customer is totally irrelevant to whether you are actioned against.
That means, as a deterrent, the effectiveness is gauged by the metric of how many people are deterred from performing the act that triggers it. The act that triggers this deterrence is not piracy, which means it does not engage piracy to begin with. Assuming perfect effectiveness of this policy, zero pirates or consumers would ever get banned because the fear of this action would cause them to delay playing the game even if they had early access to it. To serve as a deterrent to piracy, this action would have to penalize an action that would cause the fear of the deterrent to potentially not pirate the copy of the game; in our case, because both the pirated and non-pirated copy of the game fall under the same policy, there is no reason for this to occur. You have not given a pirate a single reason to not pirate, you've given him only a reason to not play his pirated game before a specific date.
Stop defending this policy on the idea that it is there to help Microsoft fight piracy. It does not serve to help them battle piracy in any meaningful way and doesn't exist to do that in the first place.