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Kickstarter games "in decline"
- Thread starter GavinUK86
- Start date
RockTurtle
Member
in a way Ouya was the beginning and the end of it all
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/tXYljBZ4Zq2B5Gq6ES-7Cew/htmlview#
Judging from this list (of 75k+ Kickstarters) your estimation is completely off.
SirPainsalot
Banned
No surprise, a lot of the projects from 2013 have either failed or are still in development. Gonna guess late 2015 will be another upswing once all these devs ramp up for their new projects.
More_Badass
Member
After Spacebase and Broken Age, not so sure about that
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
RE: The point
I don't think it's KS fatigue or people being burned, I think it's (and these points are mentioned in the article, so to be clear I'm agreeing here):
a) Early access means more devs are launching projects and taking sales earlier rather than asking for all-or-nothing funding
b) Among the donor base, most people are still waiting for their past projects to come to fruition, so to maintain the same level of funding while past funders are waiting, there have to be things to draw in new funders, but there's a relative dearth of high profile projects coming in this year and that has a negative downstream effect.
I wanted to respond to clarify the purpose of the second tab--I made this list; it's true that I list successes but then claim "most fail". I came to this conclusion by looking at the updates for a variety of low-pledge KSes and based on my own experience backing lower-end titles. What I've typically found is that very low value KSes do not appear to provide deliverables or reasonable updates; for example, check the successfully funded sub-$1000 KS projects and look at the updates. Typically you will find that they either do not update, update but don't really get anywhere, etc. Now I don't necessarily think this is a problem because I think at that level there are a lot of friends and family donations. Like when a kid starts a "Help me buy a minecraft server" KS and gets 2 $100 donations, it's hard to imagine those people want accountability.
But to name a few lower-profile projects I backed that I would consider failures:
Poker Smash - Funded a PC port and Steam release. PC port was made and released privately, not publicly. Game was Greenlit for Steam but no followup. I don't really blame the guy, he got a grand total of $8000 and I'm sure he's not going to spend 10 years supporting his clients. So, again, partially fulfilled but disappointing that he couldn't do more.
Sira - Student project. Released first episode, and then everyone graduated and moved on. Website hosting the project went down.
Spike: A Love Story Too - Dude updates every few months but he's not really working to anything, there's no deliverable, it's years later. It's clearly a little part-time indie project he noodles away at. That's OK. I wasn't really expecting a bigtime deliverable or whatever, but it's not a success.
Americana Dawn - Project was for a freeware game, so I knew when I was getting into it that it wouldn't be a big deal if they didn't deliver. I was funding to support the dev rather than to get something of value. Dev ran out of money, rebooted project, team disbanded, new team members. They're still chugging away and supposedly I'll eventually get a copy of the game when it does release, but this is a failure.
OutReach The Search for Mankind - Project briefly released on iOS, provided a download link for PC port, launched a Steam Greenlight campaign... and then the team disintegrated and the download link doesn't work, the greenlight page is gone, and the game isn't being sold anymore.
Pixel Sand - No idea what this guy is doing, he updates once a year or so. The project looks nothing like what it did when I backed it and it doesn't appear to be anywhere near release.
I don't mention this to shit on small devs, I think you can tell I'm sympathetic, but my purpose in assembling the list was the following:
- First, evaluate the success rate of high profile (>75k) kickstarters: Results: Most >75k kickstarters are successful or on track to be successful. Side note: Most of them miss their release targets, so don't back if you need to get the game delivered on time.
- Second, note that there were a number of lower profile kickstarters which led to great games
- Third, incidentally observe that lower profile kickstarters fail or fail to maintain adequate communication on a much more frequent basis and that if the aggregate fundraising amount can't afford to employ the people full time, your ability to get progress and accountability will be comparatively limited. There was no citation because it was an off-the-cuff observation based on personal experience and a brief investigation into this stuff while in the course of trying to make the points that I felt were more important to make. I'm open to challenge if someone would like to put in a more thorough assessment of low-profile KSes, but personally assembling the >75k part was already an enormous amount of wasted time for something I was basically doing out of idle personal interest.
(I plan on continuing to update the >75k list pretty frequently)
I don't think it's KS fatigue or people being burned, I think it's (and these points are mentioned in the article, so to be clear I'm agreeing here):
a) Early access means more devs are launching projects and taking sales earlier rather than asking for all-or-nothing funding
b) Among the donor base, most people are still waiting for their past projects to come to fruition, so to maintain the same level of funding while past funders are waiting, there have to be things to draw in new funders, but there's a relative dearth of high profile projects coming in this year and that has a negative downstream effect.
I wanted to respond to clarify the purpose of the second tab--I made this list; it's true that I list successes but then claim "most fail". I came to this conclusion by looking at the updates for a variety of low-pledge KSes and based on my own experience backing lower-end titles. What I've typically found is that very low value KSes do not appear to provide deliverables or reasonable updates; for example, check the successfully funded sub-$1000 KS projects and look at the updates. Typically you will find that they either do not update, update but don't really get anywhere, etc. Now I don't necessarily think this is a problem because I think at that level there are a lot of friends and family donations. Like when a kid starts a "Help me buy a minecraft server" KS and gets 2 $100 donations, it's hard to imagine those people want accountability.
But to name a few lower-profile projects I backed that I would consider failures:
Poker Smash - Funded a PC port and Steam release. PC port was made and released privately, not publicly. Game was Greenlit for Steam but no followup. I don't really blame the guy, he got a grand total of $8000 and I'm sure he's not going to spend 10 years supporting his clients. So, again, partially fulfilled but disappointing that he couldn't do more.
Sira - Student project. Released first episode, and then everyone graduated and moved on. Website hosting the project went down.
Spike: A Love Story Too - Dude updates every few months but he's not really working to anything, there's no deliverable, it's years later. It's clearly a little part-time indie project he noodles away at. That's OK. I wasn't really expecting a bigtime deliverable or whatever, but it's not a success.
Americana Dawn - Project was for a freeware game, so I knew when I was getting into it that it wouldn't be a big deal if they didn't deliver. I was funding to support the dev rather than to get something of value. Dev ran out of money, rebooted project, team disbanded, new team members. They're still chugging away and supposedly I'll eventually get a copy of the game when it does release, but this is a failure.
OutReach The Search for Mankind - Project briefly released on iOS, provided a download link for PC port, launched a Steam Greenlight campaign... and then the team disintegrated and the download link doesn't work, the greenlight page is gone, and the game isn't being sold anymore.
Pixel Sand - No idea what this guy is doing, he updates once a year or so. The project looks nothing like what it did when I backed it and it doesn't appear to be anywhere near release.
I don't mention this to shit on small devs, I think you can tell I'm sympathetic, but my purpose in assembling the list was the following:
- First, evaluate the success rate of high profile (>75k) kickstarters: Results: Most >75k kickstarters are successful or on track to be successful. Side note: Most of them miss their release targets, so don't back if you need to get the game delivered on time.
- Second, note that there were a number of lower profile kickstarters which led to great games
- Third, incidentally observe that lower profile kickstarters fail or fail to maintain adequate communication on a much more frequent basis and that if the aggregate fundraising amount can't afford to employ the people full time, your ability to get progress and accountability will be comparatively limited. There was no citation because it was an off-the-cuff observation based on personal experience and a brief investigation into this stuff while in the course of trying to make the points that I felt were more important to make. I'm open to challenge if someone would like to put in a more thorough assessment of low-profile KSes, but personally assembling the >75k part was already an enormous amount of wasted time for something I was basically doing out of idle personal interest.
(I plan on continuing to update the >75k list pretty frequently)
I still wait for the games that I backed in 2013 to come out. Most of them have already had some kind of delay or change. I'm very wary of backing other games until then. Plus, for how many games of the same style can you pledge? For me the concept proposed seem to be quite repetitive.
SolidSnakex
Member
The funding and articles surrounding the Ouya is still a mystery to me. I simply can't understand what the appeal of that device was supposed to be. It was the talk of the industry when it was being funded and then just seemed to drop off the planet.
Yep, I agree. I think this both an effect of competition from Early Access and the amount of money being pledged normalizing now that there aren't tons of big name devs putting up projects like during the initial rush.
krypt0nian
Banned
Even though I backed Amplitude, I mainly use Kickstarter for pen and paper DnD projects and they are doing wonderfully.
ULTROS!
People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
Maybe it's just me but there are too many retro-styled platformers/metroidvanias or JRPG-styled RPGs from starting devs.
I wish there was more diversity... And developers from other countries too (don't see that much, probably only Mighty No. 9).
I wish there was more diversity... And developers from other countries too (don't see that much, probably only Mighty No. 9).
outunderthestars
Banned
It had too many hardware issues at launch, and then Sony and Microsoft stepped up their indie initiatives which further lessened the market for the device.
I still think there is a market for a $99 device that plays smaller, inexpensive games. That said, it will need to be Google or Apple to get behind it in order to make it successful.
Kickstarter proved that an early access/donor style payment option can work, and people are diversifying through Steam Early Access and other alternatives. There was bound to be a decline from the initial rush but isn't particularly worrisome.
That being said most high-profile kickstarters are PC centric (Amplitude and M#9 is probably the 2 exceptions I can think of off the top of my head). So if there is apathy towards the platform due to quality I can see it coming from the console crowd more than anything. They certainly aren't being served as well by KS as the PC crowd, who has gotten FTL, Divinity:OS, Wasteland 2 and Shadowrun Returns as successful high profile projects with excellent end results just to name a few.
I'd love to see more console centric Kickstarters -- I also think that this would be the best way to increase growth. I'll freely admit I was wrong about Amplitude, and I think projects like that have potential on Kickstarter. I hope they don't forget about us PC games either though.
That being said most high-profile kickstarters are PC centric (Amplitude and M#9 is probably the 2 exceptions I can think of off the top of my head). So if there is apathy towards the platform due to quality I can see it coming from the console crowd more than anything. They certainly aren't being served as well by KS as the PC crowd, who has gotten FTL, Divinity:OS, Wasteland 2 and Shadowrun Returns as successful high profile projects with excellent end results just to name a few.
I'd love to see more console centric Kickstarters -- I also think that this would be the best way to increase growth. I'll freely admit I was wrong about Amplitude, and I think projects like that have potential on Kickstarter. I hope they don't forget about us PC games either though.
I consider my team to be very well organized and disciplined, and we're still crunching on a game funded in March 2013. Albeit we're only around four months away from launch at this point, but games just take an extremely *long* time to make, and this amount of time of often underestimated (even by me). It's no surprise backers are shying away from investments when many active projects have yet to deliver.
I always roll my eyes at these "Secret of Mana-inspired 16-bit jRPG return to the glory days!" projects. To my knowledge, I don't know of a single one that has both succeeded and been good. It's just too much work; anything short of a million dollars probably wouldn't cover it.
I always roll my eyes at these "Secret of Mana-inspired 16-bit jRPG return to the glory days!" projects. To my knowledge, I don't know of a single one that has both succeeded and been good. It's just too much work; anything short of a million dollars probably wouldn't cover it.
DarkoMaledictus
Tier Whore
Talking about failures, what happened to River City Ransom: Underground, is that still coming? Seems like forever since it was backed.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
They're still updating somewhat regularly and in development, it looks decent, but they've definitely burned through the original money and they've posted the typical "development is hard", "they made mistakes" platitudes and it's going to miss the deadline badly. They brought in a fixer specifically to get their shit together. I don't see it in imminent danger of failure, but it's clearly a project that got in over its head.
DarkoMaledictus
Tier Whore
Thanks for the info, hope it goes to market! The project looked very cool!
I dunno, I spent probably $500 on KS last year all told, and am probably only up to $100 this one. Was a ton of stuff I was interested in last year, not the case this year, there's no greater mystery afoot. /shrug
Hell, it could just simply be a matter of the people wanting to get a KS off the ground all doing it last year, and now this year they're still plugging away at working on their games now, so they can't start a new project.
But no, of the money I've put in I haven't seen a project fail, so guess I'm somewhat lucky? I mean, shit, I got a new SHADOWRUN game thanks to KS.
Hell, it could just simply be a matter of the people wanting to get a KS off the ground all doing it last year, and now this year they're still plugging away at working on their games now, so they can't start a new project.
But no, of the money I've put in I haven't seen a project fail, so guess I'm somewhat lucky? I mean, shit, I got a new SHADOWRUN game thanks to KS.
DiscoJer
Member
I have to think it's because of a lack of big games.
In the course of a few months, you had DoubleFine, Shadowrun, Wasteland 2. Then next year you had Obsidian and Star Citizen and Elite.
What's the big game on KS this year? I can't think of any, really.
Well, look at all the hype/love indie games get (still). Who knew that indie games somehow lost their "cool" when they weren't on Steam or a console?
The Ouya delivered indie games in spades, but apparently no one wants to play them unless they can play them on their Playstation or Xbox (and maybe Wii U)
In the course of a few months, you had DoubleFine, Shadowrun, Wasteland 2. Then next year you had Obsidian and Star Citizen and Elite.
What's the big game on KS this year? I can't think of any, really.
Well, look at all the hype/love indie games get (still). Who knew that indie games somehow lost their "cool" when they weren't on Steam or a console?
The Ouya delivered indie games in spades, but apparently no one wants to play them unless they can play them on their Playstation or Xbox (and maybe Wii U)
Head.spawn
Junior Member
I've only backed two games and I'm glad they turned out amazing: Banner Sage and Wastelands 2.
Lots of other cool ideas floating on KS, but not a lot of them looked like they were realistically going to work out.
Lots of other cool ideas floating on KS, but not a lot of them looked like they were realistically going to work out.
charlequin
Banned
Huh. Which one is this?
I think we've gotten 100% delivery on board game pledges, although the quality of game design I've gotten from videogame projects is definitely significantly higher overall.
This weekend is gonna be an interesting testing ground for Hyper Light Drifter!
I completely agree with what you're saying here. However, in my particular case I'm actually having the opposite situation. I've backed 5 projects, two of which are sub 75,000. I backed all these projects at the same time, and, oddly enough, the two <$75,000 projects are closest to completion. Actually, M.A.V, a $30,000 project I backed(Also the last project I backed), has actually been in fully playable beta for months now while all the projects I backed that are >100,000 seem to either have problems or are a long way from releasing.
Of course, in the case of the two sub 75k games, there was a lot of gameplay footage available from the very beginning, they were already well into the process of making the game and seemed to not really need the funding to deliver a finish product, but rather wanted the funds to expand the scope of the project. I know this is the exception, not the rule, however I feel these things should be taken on a case-by-case basis. If the project in question can prove that they are well on their way to having a playable game, it's probably a safe bet.
Edit:
That's coming out this weekend? I almost backed that too. I think I'll pick it up.
I funded three games almost exactly a year ago (Mighty No. 9, Hyper Light Drifter, Shantae: Half-Genie Hero). Now, while I have total faith these will all arrive eventually, I can only justify dedicating so much money to games that are 1-2 years away.
What's this now?
What's this now?
Vlodril
Member
I think its more of a lack of decent projects coming out combined that people backed projects (me included) that just had a couple of artwork pictures and nothing else. I would't do that now and usually want to see a demo or something before backing.
I am extremely satisfied so far with all my kickstarted projects. I have backed a dozen or so and most of them exceeded my expectations. The only one still on the fence is dead state but we ll see how it goes. i haven't touched the new beta since i played the "demo".
Just this year i got a new tex murphy (fantastic game), divnity original sin (Fantastic game), wasteland 2 (so far fantastic game
), there is eternity coming by the end of the year hell i even liked Moebius.
I also have been playing arena commander (star citizen module) on and off for the last three months.
Next year i have torment coming and stasis (which looked so very good).
If more decent projects appear i would be glad to back them since for me at least kickstarter has been a game changer.
I am extremely satisfied so far with all my kickstarted projects. I have backed a dozen or so and most of them exceeded my expectations. The only one still on the fence is dead state but we ll see how it goes. i haven't touched the new beta since i played the "demo".
Just this year i got a new tex murphy (fantastic game), divnity original sin (Fantastic game), wasteland 2 (so far fantastic game
), there is eternity coming by the end of the year hell i even liked Moebius. I also have been playing arena commander (star citizen module) on and off for the last three months.
Next year i have torment coming and stasis (which looked so very good).
If more decent projects appear i would be glad to back them since for me at least kickstarter has been a game changer.
I think its more of a lack of decent projects coming out combined that people backed projects (me included) that just had a couple of artwork pictures and nothing else. I would't do that now and usually want to see a demo or something before backing.
I am extremely satisfied so far with all my kickstarted projects. I have backed a dozen or so and most of them exceeded my expectations. The only one still on the fence is dead state but we ll see how it goes. i haven't touched the new beta since i played the "demo".
Just this year i got a new tex murphy (fantastic game), divnity original sin (Fantastic game), wasteland 2 (so far fantastic game
I also have been playing arena commander (star citizen module) on and off for the last three months.
Next year i have torment coming and stasis (which looked so very good).
If more decent projects appear i would be glad to back them since for me at least kickstarter has been a game changer.
Pillars of Eternity.
Also, I believe Seven Dragon Saga is supposed to get a Kickstarter soon. That's the Gold Box spiritual successor by TSI (SSI vets).
There was definitely a spike last year with high profile projects, with high profile developers that had an umbrella effect on other projects. The model works and remains viable. That's what matters in the end. Developers if they chose so, have a funding model that enables them to bypass publisher vetoing process and go directly to their customers with creative freedom only limited by the total budget.
beelzebozo
Jealous Bastard
i just dipped my toe in and funded a couple of things and i'm waiting for the investment to pay off. i imagine a lot of others are doing the same--they just don't want money flying out the door when there's no game to show for it yet. if i had those two games and had played them i'd probably be investing more.
Riposte
Member
The creativity of many things in this world are limited by their budget more so than anything else. The thing is with Kickstarter, 500k-1mil is pretty generous for most games and that's hardly enough to make even low-budget games that publishers can push out.
I agree with most others that it's mostly a matter of fewer high-profile projects which I want being proposed this year compared to last. I'm still completely ready to back anything which looks interesting, but it simply hasn't happened nearly as often in 2014 - I think I backed 15+ projects last year and only 5 this year.
Triggerhappytel
Member
I don't agree. For instance, my two most awaited games from KS are Hyper Light Drifter and Ghost Song. The Fall was delivered a couple of months ago and that's superb. Neverending Nightmares also just launched days ago. Just because they're not coming from a well-known studio like Double Fine or Obsidian doesn't mean they're out to scam people. Stop tarring thousands of honest developers with assumptions based on a flawed few.
ninjaboyjohn
Member
The overall kickstarter figure is even more striking when you realize that Star Citizen was this year's Star Citizen!
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/226871/Star_Citizen_hits_55_million_and_280_devs_as_funding_rolls_on.php
So Star Citizen raised $29 million more this year, which is $2 million more than the rest of gaming kickstarters this year combined.
That kinda blows my mind.
Yes. There was also some "reality check" events through these months/years, for developers and funders alike. It was a novelty at the time, no one knew if it would scale properly to multi-million dollars projects. How would expectations change from a few hundred thousand dollars project to millions? A 100K failure is bad but a 3M failure is catastrophic. And what constitutes a failure at 3M and 200K is also different. The lack of fulfilment is the ultimate failure. But expectations wise, a 3M game needs to be "good" or else is a failure.
Well this might be partly due to people donating to lots of high profile projects and now just waiting for the games to actually come out to see how well kickstarter projects can go over. I'm personally waiting for Mighty No. 9 and A Hat in Time to release before I bother putting anymore cash into crowdfunding.
Proof that the thirst for Space Sims is real. It's funny, if Star Citizen were still raising money from kickstater rather than off it, we wouldn't have a year on year decrease at all and this thread would be irrelevant.
So long as Kickstarter remains viable for some of the larger projects, I'm ok if overall support and the pure quantity of successful Kickstarters have gone down.
There's lots of people asking for like $10,000 or less to make a video game and that is an instant warning sign and reeks of inexperience, naivety and possibly even fear or a non-committal attitude towards their project. So if lots of these fail, its not really a horrible thing.
Right now, I see Kickstarter as a good place for actual talented teams or developers to go when they cant, or dont want to rely on publisher support. These are the only projects I will even think about donating some money to. And so long as these games are working out and being successful, I'm happy with Kickstarter's existence.
There's lots of people asking for like $10,000 or less to make a video game and that is an instant warning sign and reeks of inexperience, naivety and possibly even fear or a non-committal attitude towards their project. So if lots of these fail, its not really a horrible thing.
Right now, I see Kickstarter as a good place for actual talented teams or developers to go when they cant, or dont want to rely on publisher support. These are the only projects I will even think about donating some money to. And so long as these games are working out and being successful, I'm happy with Kickstarter's existence.
TekGryphon
Banned
This doesn't take rocket science. Three primary problems.
1. A few high profile failed projects.
2. Supply tapped out.
3. Price inflation.
First is obvious. Second should also be obvious. The famous names and teams who have been sitting on ideas for years but were waiting for an opportunity to shine took the plunge in 2013.
The big one, for me, is number three.
I've backed over 30 titles. Most of them were in 2013. Not because there's not plenty of great ideas for games in 2014, but because of price inflation.
I got FTL and TUG for $10, Wasteland 2 for $15, and Project Eternity and Planetary Annihilation for $20.
That's where I'm setting my price at. Yet nowadays we've got no-name kids in basements coming on Kickstarter and charging $25+ to fund the possibility of doing their pet project.
1. A few high profile failed projects.
2. Supply tapped out.
3. Price inflation.
First is obvious. Second should also be obvious. The famous names and teams who have been sitting on ideas for years but were waiting for an opportunity to shine took the plunge in 2013.
The big one, for me, is number three.
I've backed over 30 titles. Most of them were in 2013. Not because there's not plenty of great ideas for games in 2014, but because of price inflation.
I got FTL and TUG for $10, Wasteland 2 for $15, and Project Eternity and Planetary Annihilation for $20.
That's where I'm setting my price at. Yet nowadays we've got no-name kids in basements coming on Kickstarter and charging $25+ to fund the possibility of doing their pet project.
Not really. Kickstarting projects from competent developers with a proven track record like Inafune is a pretty safe bet.
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare has been my most played game since it came out in 2012 and that was kickstarted by a bunch of people who had no commercially released game prior. One of the few real success stories from unproven developers. To be fair, they did have most of the game already finished before they took to kickstarter funding.
Dictator93
Member
It doesn't need to be that way at all. There are a number o successful exemplary projects.
Messofanego
Banned
Shame, that game sounded really interesting.
PixyJunket
Member
Super Retro Squad.
The short version is that he made a neat thing based on stealing every NES game's graphics and ideas (Super Mario Crossover), and wanted to convert that into something bigger with original characters. Simple enough, right? He already made that game, so making an expanded version with original graphics can't be a stretch, sure, have my $15 and good luck.
After two years (that's over seven hundred days) and $53,000, this is what progress he had to show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pjyjExPMas
Then he got upset that people were calling it a scam and quit.
I've been very happy with Kickstarter board game projects. Like I mentioned, I have one that is painfully late (Alien Frontiers 4th Edition + Promo), but I kind of don't care since I know it's actually still a thing.