I'm surprised at how many people have such a hard time believing that this might be true.
Yes a big percentage (a large minority I believe, 30-40%) of current Xbox 360 players are not connecting on a regular basis.
That means those customers:
- cannot be advertised to
- do not buy digital games with any regularity (or at all)
- do not buy any DLC with any regularity (or at all)
- do not pay for Live Gold
- do not use any "value-add" services like renting movies or streaming music
- and yes, potentially could have "hacked" their xbox to play pirated games
So now how does that math look?
I have no trouble at all believing that MS has basically said, fuck those customers, they are not worth it. They buy the box for whatever premium (a pittance at first anyways) and then MS never sees them again as far as digital retail goes. They buy disc games and generate licensing down the line, and that's it.
Now contrast with the plethora of other devices that MS would consider "competing" with the Xbox console, at least for customer spare time, and how many of them basically require internet access: Apple TV? iPads/iPhones? Android tablets and phones? Rokus and Slingboxen and so forth?
It's a total no-brainer. Not only is it possible, frankly it's likely. Lose 30% of your previous barely-paying customers and convert the entire user base to 100% potential customers, with perfect stat tracking, and ad-serving, and connectivity.
Totally believable. And totally within Microsoft's corporate character to try it. That would be their idea of a bold move.
They can turn it off later if it really does hurt them (and I think it might, but not nearly to the extent that some are saying... crash the market, lol). I think they probably have already reeled in the used game component of this. But they will try to launch requiring an internet connection, you just watch.
It's just so ... them.