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[RetroStu]

I'd love to know who Kotaku's 'sources' are, anyone who follows football player transfer season (soccer) will know how easy it is for one of us to post a made up rumour on Twitter or on a large forum then have so called reputable websites use that rumour on their sites sometimes literaly minutes later, it can be pretty hilarious at times and that gives me hope in regards to some of these quite bizaar rumours we have had regarding next gen.

 

[krypt0nian]

You answered your own question, who honestly thinks Microsoft is going to just drop 40% of their marketshare like that?

What if the ad revenue/online purchases make up for those "lessor" customers that are lost? What if they plan on the Online uptake to improve at such a rate that they eventually get those customers back when they are "better" customers and can be ad targeted and buy things online?

 

[fabricated backlash]

I'm still calling bullshit; bookmark my post for future mockery etc.

Yeah, this has to be bullshit. Not even MS would do something as idiotic.

 

[FrozenCell]

MS could score console exclusive SimCity

 

[Neuromancer]

I'm surprised at how many people have such a hard time believing that this might be true.

Yes a big percentage (a large minority I believe, 30-40%) of current Xbox 360 players are not connecting on a regular basis.

That means those customers:

- cannot be advertised to
- do not buy digital games with any regularity (or at all)
- do not buy any DLC with any regularity (or at all)
- do not pay for Live Gold
- do not use any "value-add" services like renting movies or streaming music
- and yes, potentially could have "hacked" their xbox to play pirated games

So now how does that math look?

I have no trouble at all believing that MS has basically said, fuck those customers, they are not worth it. They buy the box for whatever premium (a pittance at first anyways) and then MS never sees them again as far as digital retail goes. They buy disc games and generate licensing down the line, and that's it.

Now contrast with the plethora of other devices that MS would consider "competing" with the Xbox console, at least for customer spare time, and how many of them basically require internet access: Apple TV? iPads/iPhones? Android tablets and phones? Rokus and Slingboxen and so forth?

It's a total no-brainer. Not only is it possible, frankly it's likely. Lose 30% of your previous barely-paying customers and convert the entire user base to 100% potential customers, with perfect stat tracking, and ad-serving, and connectivity.

Totally believable. And totally within Microsoft's corporate character to try it. That would be their idea of a bold move.

They can turn it off later if it really does hurt them (and I think it might, but not nearly to the extent that some are saying... crash the market, lol). I think they probably have already reeled in the used game component of this. But they will try to launch requiring an internet connection, you just watch.

It's just so ... them.

This is really plausible actually. Yikes.

 

[Reiko]

Reiko, Baconsammy and Surly on suicide watch.

I'm just out period.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Maybe they just don't give a shit about people who aren't paying for Live or seeing ads.

40% is the amount not online not the amount paying for live, these are people that could potentially gain a internet connection in time and start paying for live.

I haven't seen a single legitimate reason for why Microsoft would do this.

What if the ad revenue/online purchases make up for those "lessor" customers that are lost? What if they plan on the Online uptake to improve at such a rate that they eventually get those customers back when they are "better" customers and can be ad targeted and buy things online?

The 40% are potential future customers for Live why just drop them?

 

[RetroStu]

You answered your own question, who honestly thinks Microsoft is going to just drop 40% of their marketshare like that?

The thing is its 40% who don't go online, its an even higher percentage that don't have a Gold account, thats what i read anyway (less than 50% have a Gold account apparently).

 

[Oppo]

You answered your own question, who honestly thinks Microsoft is going to just drop 40% of their marketshare like that?

I did answer my own question, if you'll just scroll down a bit in my post. Answer: Microsoft. Because they think they will make more money, off of (initially) less customers. That's my guess.

 

[Darkmakaimura]

Yeah, this has to be bullshit. Not even MS would do something as idiotic.

I'm sure a lot of people would have felt the same after Diablo 3 and then we got Sim City by EA. Do not underestimate the disconnection between consumers and businessmen.

 

[abstract alien]

Some people....

...but it doesn't affect me. I'm sure it does some, but I was speaking on a personal note. I'm more worried about it lacking innovation from this gen to the next than I am connecting online.

 

[cmeese47]

So sounds like the nextbox will not only require Kinect but LIVE as well. Screw that MS.

 

[Baconsammy]

Will not purchase.


Posts like this baffle my mind. There's ZERO justification.

Are we, as gamers, willing to bend over to anything these companies force upon us so we have the privilege of spending a ton of money just to play their games?

We do it all the time. Sony institutes a 100 percent policy of forcing online passes for their multiplayer games, Nintendo has the most consumer-unfriendly account policy of any major company, and Microsoft makes people pay to use Netflix. Gamers will support some stupid shit to get their fix. If Microsoft is doing this, then you can bet they've got something else up their sleeve that they think people will accept this new change in order to gain access to. They need to hurry up and announce that so I readjust my pre-order money.

 

[Soriku]

Just because something is said over and over doesn't make it true, that would be a logical fallacy.

Of course. It's not sensationalist bullshit though, and you can't really be optimistic when there are various rumors about the same thing now.

 

[pswii60]

What if the ad revenue/online purchases make up for those "lessor" customers that are lost? What if they plan on the Online uptake to improve at such a rate that they eventually get those customers back when they are "better" customers and can be ad targeted and buy things online?

Forcing people to go online to buy things via the App Store has never hurt Apple. It's not like you can buy physical media for your iPad or iPhone.

I know that's not the same as having to be online to use the apps, but this is in response to Microsoft "losing 40% of their market" by making the console online only, just because 40% of customers don't currently go online.

 

[Penguins&PolarBears]

What does this issue have to do with Gamestop? Requiring online is not directly related to used games. If anything it makes piracy harder which benefits Gamestop.

Does always online means that everyone has to pay for Live?

No. Probably not. However can't imagine there being much you can do without Gold other than play single player, rent/buy games, watch Bluray/dvd movies. In other words missing out on the most compelling reasons of owning the system.

The one thing I can foresee requiring Internet will do for non-paying customers is increase asynchronous competition and cooperation in single player games. Game designers will constantly tell you how you are doing in games compared to your friends and there could be increased community interaction that is not real time.

It would be dumb to require a subscription because there is a lot of money to be made off of non-subscribers connected to the Internet.

 

[Sapphire Dreams]

MS had been making a lot of dumb decisions lately so I won't be surprised if they went this route.

 

[Syriel]

Don't we ALL have a connection to the internet? I've maybe lost that connection twice in 5 years. Don't see a problem. I need an internet connection to play all of my xbla titles since most of them are tied to an older xbox. Never had a problem. I guess if people can't play their games for a few hours because of an internet problem it's all out war huh?

Except, you dont. Takes about 30 seconds to do a license transfer on the 360.

It's so easy (doesn't even ask for a confirmation), that I once inadvertently did one when explaining the process to my Mom.

The 360's license handling is very consumer friendly and shows that you do not need always online.

 

[Ding-Ding]

You know I really wonder how companies like EA could think this would be a good thing. For MS it obviously is.

However, if Durango sells less and cuts off so many people because of this then doesn't it become even harder for EA to sell 5 million of Dead Space 4?

If EA supports this action, I can only see them supporting this through timed DLC. They make too much money from both xbox & playstation brands to simply ignore one of them.

Besides, if durango sells like crap because of always online. Then I see MS releasing a firmware patch to disable that function while their PR department focuses on telling us all how consumer friendly they are.

 

[Demon Ice]

Makes me think of the slowly unfolding process of discovering that Halo 4 had taken more than a little COD into its core designs.

We didn't want to believe it.

Some of us still refuse to believe it.

News to me.

"Nah man, those aren't perks and killstreaks"

 

[FordGTGuy]

I did answer my own question, if you'll just scroll down a bit in my post. Answer: Microsoft. Because they think they will make more money, off of (initially) less customers. That's my guess.

After spending all this money on the Xbox 360 to gain the marketshare they now have we somehow think it's plausible they are just going to drop all support for 40% of it?

Most people are saying Microsoft is shooting for the casual than it would make even less sense. Casual gamers are less likely to have a internet connection than core gamers.

 

[Arkham]

Does this guy have any credibility at all? I keep seeing his goofy face.

I don't know about anyone else, but every time I see him I think of Chris Elliot.

 

[BRocknRolla]

Don't we ALL have a connection to the internet? I've maybe lost that connection twice in 5 years. Don't see a problem.

...but it doesn't affect me. I'm sure it does some, but I was speaking on a personal note.

We live in a big wide world and not everyone has the same experiences as you.

I live in Chicago, ostensibly a place where one should have no trouble finding good internet. Unfortunately, in my last neighborhood and with my last internet provider, I was required to call almost every week, sometimes multiple days in a row, to get my internet connection reset so I could even browse the web. Internet also became spotty around 6-7pm as the load was simply too much in my area. If that meant I couldn't play any games during certain hours or was constantly having to fight with my provider to get a consistent connection so that I could play games it would have been infuriating. Unfortunately, they were the only provider in my particular neighborhood as well. This year in my new place my connection is largely fine, but I'm not going to look back at my old neighborhood and say, "Well, fuck you guys, my internet connection is fine, so I have no problem with always-on." I know the experience varies wildly, and just because "I've got mine" doesn't mean the situations is suddenly without issue. I'm empathetic to issues that others might have.

Until the infrastructure, even in big cities, is better built out and made more reliable, I think it's pretty shitty to require them to play games.

 

[Village]

Thing is we have other options, they are called PS4 and/or PC.

Looks like I am playing PS4, Wii-U and an Xbox360 this next gen.

 

[RetroStu]

What if the ad revenue/online purchases make up for those "lessor" customers that are lost? What if they plan on the Online uptake to improve at such a rate that they eventually get those customers back when they are "better" customers and can be ad targeted and buy things online?

Microsoft make like $30 on every game sold, in fact they make most of their money from game sales and thats why both them and Sony can afford to sell consoles at a loss, they would lose a shit ton of money if they lost all those comnsumers as game sales would go down considerably.

 

[Demoncarnotaur]

uggghhh I hope not. Its nice to be able to play games when your internet is out. What the fuck.

 

[pharmboy044]

Yeah I could definitely see that. Good thinking.

Damnit that confirms it. This has to be real

lol, you don't believe him anymore?

 

[Baconsammy]

After spending all this money on the Xbox 360 to gain the marketshare they now have we somehow think it's plausible they are just going to drop all support for 40% of it?

Most people are saying Microsoft is shooting for the casual than it would make even less sense. Casual gamers are less likely to have a internet connection than core gamers.

If they're not making much money off that 40 percent, why not? This would fly in the face of all the fools that think Microsoft is putting out a casual-only Kinect box.

 

[kaching]

The 40% are potential future customers for Live why just drop them?

Because they're still potential future customers if their circumstances or perceptions change.

 

[IHaveCandy]

Far too many people would jump off of the Xbox if this isvtrue on principle alone. History shows that consumers aren't loyal if game companies make dumb choices.

 

[Phife Dawg]

I still refuse to believe. MS can't be THIS stupid.

 

[shinobi602]

"Nah man, those aren't perks and killstreaks"

Giving me a different gun doesn't really count as a killstreak in my book.

 

[krypt0nian]

Microsoft make like $30 on every game sold, in fact they make most of their money from game sales and thats why both them and Sony can afford to sell consoles at a loss, they would lose a shit ton of money if they lost all those comnsumers as game sales would go down considerably.

Let's not pretend we have access to the full maths involved here.

 

[Toki767]

If Microsoft goes through with this, I'm out. Also, from the same article.

"That said, a caution and a caveat: other sources familiar with the codenamed Durango console have told us that they are still unaware of any Microsoft plans regarding an online requirement. No one has been able to say it's not true and some have speculated that this is required at the operating system level and therefore isn't something Microsoft has to tell all developers or retail partners. Microsoft also has the ability to change this type of requirement seemingly at a moment's notice through changes in firmware or networking infrastructure."

So no one can say for sure it isn't true while the rest probably think it is.

 

[KageMaru]

So are a lot of devices in my house, why should a game console be an exception. How useful is an internet browser without internet? It's a new paradigm shift with Durango, it's catching up to the always-connected nature of devices we have all around us.

An internet browser is just about the worst example you can use to support your view. The sole purpose of an internet browser is to....browse the internet, so of course it's going to be useless without an internet connection. If I buy a piece of hardware, that plays physical discs, it should not rely on the internet for me to play said software.

Your device can be a "connected" device without making it a requirement.

seriously... Why does anyone think ms cares about core gamers anyway?

they didn't start making a profit until Kinect sold the 360 to more non gamers...?

No, they were profiting before Kinect was launched.

 

[UberTag]

We do it all the time. Sony institutes a 100 percent policy of forcing online passes for their multiplayer games, Nintendo has the most consumer-unfriendly account policy of any major company, and Microsoft makes people pay to use Netflix. Gamers will support some stupid shit to get their fix. If Microsoft is doing this, then you can bet they've got something else up their sleeve that they think people will accept this new change in order to gain access to. They need to hurry up and announce that so I readjust my pre-order money.

There has to be a line that can be crossed before gamers say enough is enough.

Microsoft won't be able to strongarm these policies through unless they are appreciably cheaper than the PS4 and they offer backwards compatibility... on top of offering enticing exclusives (and not cross-gen stuff people can buy on platforms they already own).

Otherwise people will be content to jump ship to Sony or they'll be content with their existing X360/PS3 consoles.

Price advantage, BC, and killer exclusives... if they deliver on all three, then they can probably force through whatever policy they desire (be it one-time use game activations, always online, always Kinected, etc.) and thrive. If they think they can coast on their current success, they're in for a surprise.

 

[Demon Ice]

Giving me a different gun doesn't really count as a killstreak in my book.

Cognitive dissonance at its finest.

 

[Conciliator]

This isn't as big of a deal for me as it is for some, but all things being equal it will definitely cause me to favor the PS3. Halo 5 is not going to sell me anymore than Killzone 4 is, so show me what you're bringing to the table Microsoft.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

lol, you don't believe him anymore?

I like Arthur but he seems to be wrong pretty much 100% of the time when it comes to any of the next-gen rumor mills.

 

[clutch.as.it.gets.]

Of all the worries I had for this thing, this has to be the absolute lowest on the totem pole. I'm always online, so it affects me zero. In the off chance I'm not online, it will be a rare occurrence anyway.

Wonder how they will handle live bannings though.

Do you like retro gaming? If yes, of course it will affect you.

Let´s say you want to play a game from your collection 6 to 7 years later... that won`t be possible, because the certification servers stopped working.

In short: you got fucked big time by MS and the devs.

Don't be so short sighted or are you liking to rent games with an expiration date for 60 bucks?

 

[Baconsammy]

uggghhh I hope not. Its nice to be able to play games when your internet is out. What the fuck.

It's actually not to me. If PSN or XBL are down, I just turn it off and play my 3DS. Sony and Microsoft have conditioned me to want to see my friends popping on and offline. Not having the option whatsoever to play offline is pretty shitty though.

 

[rdrr gnr]

A connected box is worth more than a regular box. The decision is justifiable if the numbers check out. Especially if you believe requiring Internet will compel more people to connect. It absolutely is a viable strategy.

 

[NullPointer]

An internet browser is just about the worst example you can use to support your view. The sole purpose of an internet browser is to....browse the internet, so of course it's going to be useless without an internet connection. If I buy a piece of hardware, that plays physical discs, it should not rely on the internet for me to play said software.

Your device can be a "connected" device without making it a requirement.

And as I found out the other day when trying to set up my new router configuration through Internet Explorer on the Xbox, if IE goes offline for even a moment (and thus disconnected from Gold) you'll get kicked back to the dashboard.

Gotta love Microsoft.

 

[The Omega Man]

I'm just out period.

awwww c'mon man, it's just a friendly jab, we love you so don't stop believing

 

[EagleBurnn]

Ah, Kotaku is considered news now? Interesting.

Good thing they're just not building off other sites (EDGE) like they always do or this article will be silly.

And as I found out the other day when trying to set up my new router configuration through Internet Explorer on the Xbox, if IE goes offline for even a moment (and thus disconnected from Gold) you'll get kicked back to the dashboard.

Gotta love Microsoft.

Wait. Are you saying that when you were on the dashboard setting up your connection and when your connection dropped, it went back into the dashboard? What do you expect to happen?

 

[DragonSworne]

With so many sources saying it's true, I have to believe that MS is stupid enough to go always online DRM.


Doesn't mean they will, just that they are stupid enough.

Also, I brought this issue up with a coworker who isn't that into gaming he thought this was a brilliant business decision to due all the pirated games....

 

[Darkmakaimura]

A connected box is worth more than a regular box. The decision is justifiable if the numbers check out. Especially if you believe requiring Internet will compel more people to connect. It absolutely is a viable strategy.

Except for the people who don't have Internet connection and there's a lot of them.

 

[Baconsammy]

If they think they can coast on their current success, they're in for a surprise.

People keep saying this. What current success? When Nintendo moved on to the Wii U, Microsoft finished in 2nd place, barely above Sony. Yes this generation was a huge disaster for Sony, but it wasn't a rousing success for Microsoft to the point where they can act like they own the world. If they think that, they're deluded.

 

[evangd007]

If Microsoft goes through with this, I'm out. Also, from the same article.

"That said, a caution and a caveat: other sources familiar with the codenamed Durango console have told us that they are still unaware of any Microsoft plans regarding an online requirement. No one has been able to say it's not true and some have speculated that this is required at the operating system level and therefore isn't something Microsoft has to tell all developers or retail partners. Microsoft also has the ability to change this type of requirement seemingly at a moment's notice through changes in firmware or networking infrastructure."

So we have multiple sources saying "Yes, required online," others saying, "I don't know," and nobody saying, "No required online." The I-don't-knows don't mean much at all.

 

[Oppo]

After spending all this money on the Xbox 360 to gain the marketshare they now have we somehow think it's plausible they are just going to drop all support for 40% of it?

Most people are saying Microsoft is shooting for the casual than it would make even less sense. Casual gamers are less likely to have a internet connection than core gamers.

Again, I think it is purely a potential-revenue calculation.

If MS has numbers that say, for example:

connected customers: spend an average $100/year between digital purchases and Live, vs

unconnected customers spend: spend an average of $30/year

.. or somesuch... then yes. It's worth it to them.

Pure speculation on my part. I just don't find it hard to believe.