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Love Boat 2 [Mafia] |OT| Electric Boogalove

Natiko

Banned
Assuming no lies, they have negative utility. Flush blocks teammates, Sorian could disable the virgin and fran could out Sorian or Flush and make us think they were scum. Darryl also had to guess the lynch the night before which is quite hard to get right. I'm kinda surprised they did (if fran is to be believed).
They did? When?
 

Dr. Worm

Banned
I can't imagine a mass claim matters at this point. I'd be astounded if all the answers aren't "vanilla." The tracker claim fills in the investigative spot I was expecting and if they are lying, someone should have counter claimed them at this point anyway.

If I want to be right? Probably Sophia/Crimson. I'm still tossed up between Kark and Ty among the lower activity posters but from the high end, they are the only pair that makes sense to me.

For whatever it's worth, getting assurances now would make me feel much more comfortable moving forward, as opposed to dealing with claims as the claimants get put on the chopping block.
 

Sorian

Banned
Assuming no lies, they have negative utility. Flush blocks teammates, Sorian could disable the virgin and fran could out Sorian or Flush and make us think they were scum. Darryl also had to guess the lynch the night before which is quite hard to get right. I'm kinda surprised they did (if fran is to be believed).

Not only do they have to guess the lynch right, they also have motivation to keep pushing for a lynch that they may no longer completely believe in. The theme here is kind of clear.
 

Sorian

Banned
For whatever it's worth, getting assurances now would make me feel much more comfortable moving forward, as opposed to dealing with claims as the claimants get put on the chopping block.

For the record, I'm not against a mass claim, there's just nothing interesting left if I had to guess. I'm working on the assumption that anyone left is vanilla or scum.
 

franconp

Member
Assuming no lies, they have negative utility. Flush blocks teammates, Sorian could disable the virgin and fran could out Sorian or Flush and make us think they were scum. Darryl also had to guess the lynch the night before which is quite hard to get right. I'm kinda surprised they did (if fran is to be believed).

We don't know if it was Darryl targeting Sorian with a power he gained before or he just targeted Sorian as his guess for the next lynch.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
we can talk, what's on your mind? did I miss a question?

Not too much, debating what to have for lunch/breakfast. You?

And there were a couple, mainly ones from here

If this is mylo I'll never forgive you all lol

Okay..and if they don't have to setup a lynch on you because there are already multiple people stating they will lynch you just for surviving.......why would they vote for you with such wish wash reasoning instead of just blending in with the crowd? Why does scum diverge from the pack there if, as you said, you will be lynched just for surviving even if they do nothing? The arguments you and Sorian are presenting for rac/acohrs continue to feel weak.

Because when Sorian and I eventually die ( either lynch or NK ), what do you have on Rac/Acohrs? Nothing; they've given no trail, hardly any thoughts, and all they've done is sit on the boat that's going to bite it eventually. They're finally branching out now but a few already commented that the reasoning is weird or doesn't make sense. I think they're purposefully minimizing their trail is what I'm getting at.

Sawneeks vote is also interesting. She voted Ouro to tie Kitsune. This vote was early and there was still lot of time left until deadline. Why didn't you move your vote when they weren't gaining any traction?

I had to leave for work and was not around at Day End, I said as much here:

So I've got to get going but I want to get my final thoughts out.

I did respond once to Sophia after this post as I was walking out the door but that was it.

Sorian/Sawneeks - who do you scumread beyond rac/acohrs? You may have said already and I forgot.

Is 'almost everyone' a proper answer? Because that's kinda how I feel right now, even my Town Leans aren't really solid...

The better question might be who do I not Scum Read right now. Dr. Fran I'd be shocked if they turned out to be Scum after what happened with Kits so I'm feeling relatively confident there. I like Monkey and her contributions a lot even if I'm iffy on Royal and since it was never counterclaimed there's no reason to not believe they are Silencers. Given their targets as well I'm willing to put them as a Town Lean. You and Nomad are another pair I'm feeling Townie on. I'll admit at this point I'm kinda...glossing over Nomad's posts since they are either weird, cryptic, or both but I've liked your contributions over the past Day Phases and nothing has screamed scum to me and at this point Nomad is either Blarg Jr. with his scum acting to contrast you or that's just how he plays and given some of his questions I'm going to assume that's just how he plays.

Everyone else is varying different degrees of Scum Reads. Rac/Acohrs I've done to death so I won't go over them again, Sorian dislikes Ty/Trigger and Sophia/Crimson and my gut agrees with him on the latter though I'm still really uncertain about both. Ty would've had to be bussing Kits from Day 1 is he was Scum which, while not totally unlikely, just isn't something I'm used to Gafia Scum doing. But I agree that Trigger is just kind of all over the place and Ty doesn't have a presence which is odd considering his post count. Sophia/Crimson I've already gone over previously but they also lack a presence in the game and I still find it odd Sophia just doesn't give her thoughts out and is very reserved instead. I suppose I can see the two of them bussing Kits early on, especially considering they never super argued for the lynch in the first place and their primary reasoning was hidden in a chat none of us can read.

Kark/Xbro is a weird one I still go back-and-forth on and they're the one I would place in the middle of my Town and Scum reads. I've said it before but I like Xbro and his posts; they somewhat remind me of Kalor in a 'quiet and thoughtful' sort of style and nothing I've seen from him sends off any alarms. Kark has picked it up in the past few Days but he's just....not here. I know I keep saying 'lack of presence' like it's five dollar word but nothing has really stood out that he's done besides his gambit ( which went nowhere and isn't very Kark ) and his comment back at Ty ( which I found kinda Townie actually ). They're a weird pair I have trouble making heads or tails on but I know Sorian doesn't like them so I'm willing to follow his judgement here.

I will note that my last two Town Leans are wavy and I am open to considering a case presented against either but at this point having so many Scum reads isn't going to help and I want to try and narrow my focus a bit....

also this turned out way longer than I originally thought it would but I needed to get my thoughts down. I do want to get something more proper out before Day End though.

I'm not sure that role cop off sets a town roleblock, a tracker, a virgin that can't be disabled by scum, a silencer, whatever Darryl would be classified as, and a mailman.

The classic balance against a Roleblocker/Tracker is a Strongman/Ninja respectively so it's entirely possible Scum have a Role Cop to find roles and a Ninja, Strongman, or both to off-set what little protections we have.

2. I'd like to see everyone's (or every team's) #1 draft (scum) choice. If you had to pick one team right now and say THEY ARE SCUM, where would you land? I'm gonna go ask Flush but I'll post mine or ours later.

Lightly discussed above with Natiko but it should be somewhat obvious what my #1 is despite being rather alone in this thought. Afterwards it's a mix of Ty/Trigger, Sophia/Crimson, and Kark/Xbro.
 
I was with you on racohrs and their relative silence isn't doing them any favors but the chat thing gives me pause. I don't want to belabor it but if it's evidence, it's in favor of them being town.

There are a few things I want to look at tonight but I'm going out and then podcasting and who knows what else.
 

Natiko

Banned
Sorry Sawneeks I'm not trimming that post down lol

1. You argue rac/acohrs are trying to get you killed without leaving a trail. Wouldn't voting Star yesterday have left less of a trail than going Lone Ranger and pushing you at day end with weak reasoning?

2. Well they can't have all three of those things unless you disagree with Sorian on the remaining scum players (or one is a JOAT type thing)
 
Everyone else is varying different degrees of Scum Reads. Rac/Acohrs I've done to death so I won't go over them again, Sorian dislikes Ty/Trigger and Sophia/Crimson and my gut agrees with him on the latter though I'm still really uncertain about both. Ty would've had to be bussing Kits from Day 1 is he was Scum which, while not totally unlikely, just isn't something I'm used to Gafia Scum doing. But I agree that Trigger is just kind of all over the place and Ty doesn't have a presence which is odd considering his post count. Sophia/Crimson I've already gone over previously but they also lack a presence in the game and I still find it odd Sophia just doesn't give her thoughts out and is very reserved instead. I suppose I can see the two of them bussing Kits early on, especially considering they never super argued for the lynch in the first place and their primary reasoning was hidden in a chat none of us can read.

You could say the same thing about Crimsonfist. While his vote on kits came in considerably later than the one of Ty (namely in the endgame) it looked like it was supposed to stay. He only changes to break a supposed tie. He also voiced his support to Ty's vote earlier. I wouldn't say that's a lot less potential bussing than Ty's potential bussing.
 

Ty4on

Member
You could say the same thing about Crimsonfist. While his vote on kits came in considerably later than the one of Ty (namely in the endgame) it looked like it was supposed to stay. He only changes to break a supposed tie. He also voiced his support to Ty's vote earlier. I wouldn't say that's a lot less potential bussing than Ty's potential bussing.
I agree it's not something scum do a lot, but equating our cord is a bit disingenuous.
I started the wagon and Crimson had a fairly long delay iirc on his comment vs vote. Just in general scum don't like starting wagons because it puts them in the spotlight, but I digress.
 

Ty4on

Member
tl;dr

Vote: Rac

Muffin/Sam's ignoring of Kits/FEP strikes me as Scum not knowing how to react to their partner and therefore just ignoring them or giving only half-reads. Their insistence on Darryl at the End of Day 2 reads to me as Scum not knowing how to save their partner and just staying out of it entirely which lines up with them just ignoring Kits/FEP despite them being a hot topic on Day 1 and Day 2. There was someone who said something along the lines of the Kit lynch 'feeling too easy' and this may be the reason for that? Their frustration towards Darryl is something I feel is rather NAI after thinking on it as I've seen both Scum and Town give that kind of reaction before when arguing with someone who they feel is using 'faulty' logic. [...]

You're kinda building on a hypothesis.
I can do it in reverse:
Muffin/Sam's ignoring of Kits/FEP strikes me as town tunneling on someone else and therefore just ignoring them or giving only half-reads. Their insistence on Darryl at the End of Day 2 reads to me as town getting frustrated with his play and just staying out of it entirely which lines up with them just ignoring Kits/FEP despite them being a hot topic on Day 1 and Day 2.
I think it's much more likely to have a townie ignoring a scum lynch because their focus is elsewhere. Scum will by default focus on their mates.

I think we have to accept by now that an easy lynch meant some sort of bussing. Even if Muffin are scum, what did their teammates do?
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Sorry Sawneeks I'm not trimming that post down lol

1. You argue rac/acohrs are trying to get you killed without leaving a trail. Wouldn't voting Star yesterday have left less of a trail than going Lone Ranger and pushing you at day end with weak reasoning?

2. Well they can't have all three of those things unless you disagree with Sorian on the remaining scum players (or one is a JOAT type thing)

1. Hmm, going with the crowd likely would have but they already had reasoning out there for why they would lynch Star and it's, arguably, even weaker. Stay on the person you 'gut read' as Scum or vote for Star who they said they were interesting in lynching simply because it put shade on Sorian and I?

Also why do you keep saying 'pushing' us at Day End? The only 'push' I see is Rac voting for us with no context, gives an answer once I prod him, and then says they don't trust RoyalMonkey. That doesn't look like a push to me. :x

2. I'm not saying they have all 3, I'm saying they likely have one of those combo of powers given what we've seen so far. And I still think an 8-player ( 4 boat ) Scum Team sounds a little too crazy. :p

You could say the same thing about Crimsonfist. While his vote on kits came in considerably later than the one of Ty (namely in the endgame) it looked like it was supposed to stay. He only changes to break a supposed tie. He also voiced his support to Ty's vote earlier. I wouldn't say that's a lot less potential bussing than Ty's potential bussing.

Ty kinda answered it but Crimson did have a delay in his vote after his read. I covered it a bit here but that was essentially all he said before hoping on to Kits whereas Ty was the first one out of the gate to go against Kits for 2 Day Phases straight. Personally I see a Crimson bus more likely than a Ty bus ( unless Ty was just super committed to murdering a teammate for some reason ) just due to the timing of the votes.

Thinking on it some, if one of these two end up being Scum I don't think the other is. That just seems weird to have two Scum Boats push Kits that hard.

You're kinda building on a hypothesis.
I can do it in reverse:

I think it's much more likely to have a townie ignoring a scum lynch because their focus is elsewhere. Scum will by default focus on their mates.

I think we have to accept by now that an easy lynch meant some sort of bussing. Even if Muffin are scum, what did their teammates do?

This is not always true, we've had Scum here straight ignore teammates or just give passing glances to them in the past. That's not some new thing. :x

Something to look at if they do flip Scum for interactions n such but there are still merits in Crimson/Sophia bussing, your super bus + Trigger's late vote, and Xbro's vote at the end.
 

franconp

Member
Well, I can't say I'm even considering it, but I'm curious about why it's on the menu. Partially a bit bothered about it because of my sad past with suggesting no lynches

There are some people saying this could be Mylo.

What do you think about this? Is this Mylo for you?

Who do you want to lynch today?
 
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

hey_monkey & Royal_Flush (2)
acohrs 4234
Nomadic Sparks 4245

rac & acohrs (2)
Sawneeks 4091
Sorian 4098

No Lynch (1)
Natiko 4233

Sawneeks & Sorian (1)
rac 4264

Xbro & Karkador (1)
Ty4on 4235

Natiko & Nomadic Sparks (1)
franconp 4165

No active vote for Day 5: CrimsonFist, Dr. Worm, hey_monkey, Karkador, Royal_Flush (has previously voted), Sophia, Trigger, Xbro

Day 5 Postcount: acohrs 24, CrimsonFist 15, Dr. Worm 14, franconp 27, hey_monkey 42, Karkador 9, Natiko 33, Nomadic Sparks 22, rac 10, Royal_Flush 15, Sawneeks 13, Sophia 32, Sorian 31, Trigger 9, Ty4on 37, Xbro 12


Day 5 ends:
red_1503687600.png

Automated vote tally here

9 votes for majority
 

Karkador

Banned
There are some people saying this could be Mylo.

What do you think about this? Is this Mylo for you?

Who do you want to lynch today?

The game is currently 8 pairs alive and 7 dead. Just intuitively looking at that, I would doubt we're in Mylo. Seems kinda crazy with less than half of the game dead.

But it really comes down to whether we started the game with 3 scum pairs or 4. 3/15 scum is 1/5 of the game...seems slightly low, but then again, that would be 6 scum voices in the game.

We also need to consider what sort of effect the Virgin had on the game balance. What if the Virgin had been disabled or not killed? 3 scum left means all the Virgin effect did was make today either Mylo or Lylo. I think?

I guess I'm not too worried about mylo today, however, there's a bit of a problem here. If there's a neutral, they're probably meeting a win condition pretty soon, and that throws all these numbers off.
 
1. Hmm, going with the crowd likely would have but they already had reasoning out there for why they would lynch Star and it's, arguably, even weaker. Stay on the person you 'gut read' as Scum or vote for Star who they said they were interesting in lynching simply because it put shade on Sorian and I?

So what about the chat thing that we're sort of talking about/not talking about? Because I agree with you on behavior* with rac and acohrs but there are some very compelling meta arguments that convince me they may not be scum and perhaps they are not very engaged because they were coming in to replace a team that was already being scumread. I can get not feeling super motivated there. But it doesn't explain all their behavior... or maybe lack of? Because they're just not doing much. I find that scummy but it's difficult to say YES, THIS IS THE TEAM - so I'm just asking now: are you sure?


*though I like the point that voting StarBro might have been less obvious a pick for them
 

Sorian

Banned
The game is currently 8 pairs alive and 7 dead. Just intuitively looking at that, I would doubt we're in Mylo. Seems kinda crazy with less than half of the game dead.

But it really comes down to whether we started the game with 3 scum pairs or 4. 3/15 scum is 1/5 of the game...seems slightly low, but then again, that would be 6 scum voices in the game.

We also need to consider what sort of effect the Virgin had on the game balance. What if the Virgin had been disabled or not killed? 3 scum left means all the Virgin effect did was make today either Mylo or Lylo. I think?

I guess I'm not too worried about mylo today, however, there's a bit of a problem here. If there's a neutral, they're probably meeting a win condition pretty soon, and that throws all these numbers off.

If there is a neutral then they are a survivor. There has been no weird actions running around, no second kills, no douses/licks, etc. etc.
 

franconp

Member
The game is currently 8 pairs alive and 7 dead. Just intuitively looking at that, I would doubt we're in Mylo. Seems kinda crazy with less than half of the game dead.

But it really comes down to whether we started the game with 3 scum pairs or 4. 3/15 scum is 1/5 of the game...seems slightly low, but then again, that would be 6 scum voices in the game.

We also need to consider what sort of effect the Virgin had on the game balance. What if the Virgin had been disabled or not killed? 3 scum left means all the Virgin effect did was make today either Mylo or Lylo. I think?

I guess I'm not too worried about mylo today, however, there's a bit of a problem here. If there's a neutral, they're probably meeting a win condition pretty soon, and that throws all these numbers off.

Interesting insight.

How about the second question? Who do you think is a good lynch today?
 

Karkador

Banned
As for who I'd want to lynch today, there are two roads I see here.


Option 1)

We keep going on the same road. After Ouro's lynch, I said we should flip other people involved in that web, because something about it was not making sense. I really did think that either this roleblocker thing didn't make sense, or one of the letter recipients was lying, or SOMETHING. We ended up flipping Star, to no avail. Alright, fine.....we could continue down this tunnel, see what fran flips, see what Sorian flips, see what Royal flips, etc. If we're not in mylo today (and I don't think we are, like I said), we might have just enough time to flip them all - but it's a huge gamble.

Shortlist? Sorian, fran, Royal, in that order


OR


Option 2)

We make a sharp turn. We lynch someone who's not in that tunnel, someone who hasn't been chased. We get this kite unstuck from the tree. We shake things up and see where the votes go. Look at the targets scum has been killing - they're leaving people in Option 1 alive, so that we keep tunneling. Maybe they just want us to waste time. Now we're so stalled, we're considering a No Lynch because nobody knows where to go.


I'm slightly leaning on Option 2, but mostly because I have been burned by tunneling before. I still have a nagging feeling about Option 1.


Shortlist? Ty4on, Crimson, Natiko, in that order
 

Natiko

Banned
I've been mulling over two possible scenarios in my head all day at this point. I was thinking about this a lot over the last few hours. I think I may have convinced myself it's not mylo in part because I'm having trouble thinking of a plausible three boats remaining scum team. I don't see Ty being on the same scum team as Sophia. I don't see Royal as being on the same scum team as Ty. I don't see Kark being on the same scum team as Royal. I don't see Sorian or Fran being scum at all if there's four original scum boats. I don't think rac/acohrs have been playing in a sensible way for scum whatsoever regardless. That leaves no viable three boat scum team unless I'm missing something.

That brings me to scenario two. There were only three scum boats at start. One of the claimed PRs is likely scum due to balance (too many "town" PRs with only three scum) and scum is likely hiding among the top posters due to the NKs seen so far. I don't think Fran is scum, so that leaves Royal and Sorian. Thinking through it we can say with 100% certainty Royal and Sorian can't both be scum as they both used their powers N2 and yet a kill went through. For Royal to be scum that would mean during N2 they prioritized Royal using another shot to keep up appearances and then making a point to claim and reveal they had no shots left, that way they could submit the night kill going forward. For Sorian to be scum that means he's likely been blocking while the other person submits the kill.

The other person, of course, is Sophia/Crim. I standby my reasoning on them being scum. I think from nearly every angle I've approached it they fit the best as far as being scum. I think if we can lynch the scum that isn't a claimed PR today we'll be in a great position to win. We can deduce which out of Sorian/Royal is scum with more time to see how the night actions resolve going forward.

VOTE: CrimsonFist
 

franconp

Member
As for who I'd want to lynch today, there are two roads I see here.


Option 1)

We keep going on the same road. After Ouro's lynch, I said we should flip other people involved in that web, because something about it was not making sense. I really did think that either this roleblocker thing didn't make sense, or one of the letter recipients was lying, or SOMETHING. We ended up flipping Star, to no avail. Alright, fine.....we could continue down this tunnel, see what fran flips, see what Sorian flips, see what Royal flips, etc. If we're not in mylo today (and I don't think we are, like I said), we might have just enough time to flip them all - but it's a huge gamble.

Shortlist? Sorian, fran, Royal, in that order


OR


Option 2)

We make a sharp turn. We lynch someone who's not in that tunnel, someone who hasn't been chased. We get this kite unstuck from the tree. We shake things up and see where the votes go. Look at the targets scum has been killing - they're leaving people in Option 1 alive, so that we keep tunneling. Maybe they just want us to waste time. Now we're so stalled, we're considering a No Lynch because nobody knows where to go.


I'm slightly leaning on Option 2, but mostly because I have been burned by tunneling before. I still have a nagging feeling about Option 1.


Shortlist? Ty4on, Crimson, Natiko, in that order

What are your thoughts on racohrs?
 

Sorian

Banned
I've been mulling over two possible scenarios in my head all day at this point. I was thinking about this a lot over the last few hours. I think I may have convinced myself it's not mylo in part because I'm having trouble thinking of a plausible three boats remaining scum team. I don't see Ty being on the same scum team as Sophia. I don't see Royal as being on the same scum team as Ty. I don't see Kark being on the same scum team as Royal. I don't see Sorian or Fran being scum at all if there's four original scum boats. I don't think rac/acohrs have been playing in a sensible way for scum whatsoever regardless. That leaves no viable three boat scum team unless I'm missing something.

That brings me to scenario two. There were only three scum boats at start. One of the claimed PRs is likely scum due to balance (too many "town" PRs with only three scum) and scum is likely hiding among the top posters due to the NKs seen so far. I don't think Fran is scum, so that leaves Royal and Sorian. Thinking through it we can say with 100% certainty Royal and Sorian can't both be scum as they both used their powers N2 and yet a kill went through. For Royal to be scum that would mean during N2 they prioritized Royal using another shot to keep up appearances and then making a point to claim and reveal they had no shots left, that way they could submit the night kill going forward. For Sorian to be scum that means he's likely been blocking while the other person submits the kill.

The other person, of course, is Sophia/Crim. I standby my reasoning on them being scum. I think from nearly every angle I've approached it they fit the best as far as being scum. I think if we can lynch the scum that isn't a claimed PR today we'll be in a great position to win. We can deduce which out of Sorian/Royal is scum with more time to see how the night actions resolve going forward.

VOTE: CrimsonFist

This is based heavy on the assumption that scum can't use their ability and kill in the same night.
 
I dunno how the neutral played in LB1, but I don't think we've acted like our win con is survival regardless. Meta is meta, but we also have to look at the game in the here and now. Scum read us, sure, I guess, but neutral? Nah.
 

Natiko

Banned
Not always, I allowed them to kill and use their ability in phoenix wright. It's rare but at the end of the day its just a balance choice.
Sure. We can talk all day about things that could technically be true. There could be a neutral poisoner that Burb placed a limit on and he can only start poisoning when there's less than half the players remaining. It's a thing he could do, but is it likely? I'm going to focus my efforts on deducing what the most likely scenarios are and who is most likely scum and operate from that.
 

Sorian

Banned
Sure. We can talk all day about things that could technically be true. There could be a neutral poisoner that Burb placed a limit on and he can only start poisoning when there's less than half the players remaining. It's a thing he could do, but is it likely? I'm going to focus my efforts on deducing what the most likely scenarios are and who is most likely scum and operate from that.


It's not really an out there possibility and it would assist with the fact that scum seems to be understaffed in terms of PR comparatively.
 

Natiko

Banned
It's not really an out there possibility and it would assist with the fact that scum seems to be understaffed in terms of PR comparatively.
Except it wouldn't. If every claimed PR is town there is no combination of possible scum PRs that would balance it out even if they can use an action and submit the kill. Role cop and a ninja or strongman seem like the favored guess. Tell me how that balances out against allllll the claimed town PRs. Clearly the role cop wouldn't be too much of a benefit considering they've ignored most of our claimed PRs instead of taking them out. That leaves a role that can help circumvent one of our PRs and that's about it.

I like how you want to push an angle of "oh this game may be an exception to the norm" when it comes to submitting the night kill, but when the topic of there potentially being four scum boats to start with was raised you were all for pushing what is "standard" and waving away any other possibilities.
Your conclusion is fine on the first part, I just think you are going to roll around and lynch a town PR the next day.
It turns out if there's only two scum boats left and we hit one today then we still have a mislynch and a no lynch left before lylo. I like our odds and I trust my thought process that got me to this point. Meanwhile you're advocating for the lynch of a low impact boat because they want you to die and that's why they wanted to get you lynched yesterday except they didn't actually care and just want to avoid leaving trails and regardless you think scum could leave you alone and you'd be lynched anyways and etc etc etc. The argument you and Sawneeks have been presenting for rac/acohrs has been flimsy and you've stepped all over yourselves trying to justify it.

Besides - as a "town" roleblocker shouldn't you have increased odds to block a kill as the game goes on? Surely you would stop one soon especially if we lynch scum today. Hell, your odds might be getting so good they'd night kill you. Then it'd an even easier path to finding the last scum.
 

Sorian

Banned
Except it wouldn't. If every claimed PR is town there is no combination of possible scum PRs that would balance it out even if they can use an action and submit the kill. Role cop and a ninja or strongman seem like the favored guess. Tell me how that balances out against allllll the claimed town PRs. Clearly the role cop wouldn't be too much of a benefit considering they've ignored most of our claimed PRs instead of taking them out. That leaves a role that can help circumvent one of our PRs and that's about it.

I like how you want to push an angle of "oh this game may be an exception to the norm" when it comes to submitting the night kill, but when the topic of there potentially being four scum boats to start with was raised you were all for pushing what is "standard" and waving away any other possibilities.

It turns out if there's only two scum boats left and we hit one today then we still have a mislynch and a no lynch left before lylo. I like our odds and I trust my thought process that got me to this point. Meanwhile you're advocating for the lynch of a low impact boat because they want you to die and that's why they wanted to get you lynched yesterday except they didn't actually care and just want to avoid leaving trails and regardless you think scum could leave you alone and you'd be lynched anyways and etc etc etc. The argument you and Sawneeks have been presenting for rac/acohrs has been flimsy and you've stepped all over yourselves trying to justify it.

Besides - as a "town" roleblocker shouldn't you have increased odds to block a kill as the game goes on? Surely you would stop one soon especially if we lynch scum today. Hell, your odds might be getting so good they'd night kill you. Then it'd an even easier path to finding the last scum.

The % of scum vs. town is a much stricter set of rules than whether scum can do one or two actions in a night. I'm not sure why you keep delving into the realm of silly to prove a point.

Second, I am voting with Saw currently but I've spoken my piece on this whole thing already. I'm not completely convinced scum is here and I switch to the only high activity pair that makes any sense when push comes to shove.

Third, duh, that's why I didn't care for your need to vote no lynch early, I want a smaller player pool.
 

Natiko

Banned
The % of scum vs. town is a much stricter set of rules than whether scum can do one or two actions in a night. I'm not sure why you keep delving into the realm of silly to prove a point.

Second, I am voting with Saw currently but I've spoken my piece on this whole thing already. I'm not completely convinced scum is here and I switch to the only high activity pair that makes any sense when push comes to shove.

Third, duh, that's why I didn't care for your need to vote no lynch early, I want a smaller player pool.
Because you seem keen to handwave away a theory that could implicate yourself as scum on the merit of a non-standard policy. I wonder what percentage of Gafia games have allowed scum to submit actions and a kill when more than one remains. I'm going to guess it is not a significant enough amount to use it as a baseline as opposed to the standard policy.

Given that your continued survival is a risk to scum, but your death is also a liability to them if you are in fact town as it narrows down who we should look, wouldn't you think we'd be in a pretty good position going forward? Why are you concerned today about a theoretical lynch tomorrow that I already said would need more discussion?
 
Second, I am voting with Saw currently but I've spoken my piece on this whole thing already. I'm not completely convinced scum is here and I switch to the only high activity pair that makes any sense when push comes to shove.

I am personally quite curious as to why you guys are still there after discussions today.
 

Sorian

Banned
Because you seem keen to handwave away a theory that could implicate yourself as scum on the merit of a non-standard policy. I wonder what percentage of Gafia games have allowed scum to submit actions and a kill when more than one remains. I'm going to guess it is not a significant enough amount to use it as a baseline as opposed to the standard policy.

Given that your continued survival is a risk to scum, but your death is also a liability to them if you are in fact town as it narrows down who we should look, wouldn't you think we'd be in a pretty good position going forward? Why are you concerned today about a theoretical lynch tomorrow that I already said would need more discussion?

No, I'm handwaving away a theory that leads you into lynching Flush and monkey tomorrow when it is painfully obvious that they are town. I'll be dead so it isn't my problem except for the told you so's that I drop in the graveyard.

I am personally quite curious as to why you guys are still there after discussions today.

Discussion today hasn't really swayed me one way or the other. It's a lot of vague meta stuff that may not even necessarily be true. But to be more real, I was on mobile pretty much all day, had to drive four hours, and more so I haven't really cared to change my vote when I know I'll be here all morning tomorrow.
 

Natiko

Banned
Then we'll be in wonderful shape even if you're right. If we hit scum today, you die tonight, and we mislynch on monkey it turns out another NK happens after that then a no lynch and then another NK before lylo. At that point it'll likely be pretty easy for whoever is left alive to figure out.
 

Sophia

Member
Then we'll be in wonderful shape even if you're right. If we hit scum today, you die tonight, and we mislynch on monkey it turns out another NK happens after that then a no lynch and then another NK before lylo. At that point it'll likely be pretty easy for whoever is left alive to figure out.

I mean there's technically a 1/6 chance for Sorian and Sawneeks to survive the night phase if they're not scum. :p
 
Just to have all this in one place to see, historically, who voted for whom. No motivations and order a bit off at times. Also have night actions as claimed in though I mixed up Sawrian's block, I think - please correct.

1. [m] rac & [m] acohrs
D1: Schmuffin never voted at all for Orb/TWE. Both voted for xKark at various times and ended there. Samurai stayed there; Muffin dropped off once, voted Ouro, came back.
D2: Voted Ouro, then switched to Darryl.
D3: Voted selves, left game, weird shit. acohrs voted Ouro. rac did not vote.
D4: voted Sawrian.

3. [f] Sawneeks & [m] Sorian
D1: Sorian was first to vote Orb/TWE. Dropped off, voted again, also voted xKark, kits, Ouro, Darryl. Fat voted Darryl/nin only. Claims to have blocked Ouro N1.
D2: Voted kits (twice, stayed there), Ouro, Darryl, fran, Star, xBro. Saw stayed on Ouro after subbing in and voting around a bit. Claims to have blocked Ouro again.
D3: Sorian ended with no vote. Sawneeks voted Ouro and stayed. Sorian voted Ouro early, switched off.
Blocked ?? Couldn't find the post- sorry
Blocked Ty/Trigger at some point - someone correct me on the blocks, please

D4: voted Xbro, Tygger, Darryl, racohrs.

4. [m] CrimsonFist & [f] Sophia
D1: Sophia never voted. Crimson voted Trigger, kits, Sawrian, and Orb/TWE.
D2: Voted Darryl, kits.
D3: NO votes.
D4: Voted StarBro, Crimson early vote for Sawrian

5. [f] hey_monkey & [m] Royal_Flush
D1: Voted xKark only. Silenced xKark. TsuXna had no posts/votes.
D2: Flush voted Sawrian. Silenced Ouro.
D3: Voted Ouro, monkey switched to Ty4on
D4: Voted Tygger, racohrs, StarBro (all monkey; Flush was out)

6. [m] franconp & [m] Dr. Worm
D1: (DW) Voted self, ExoBlend, Ouro, Orb. fran voted NatikoSparks only. Targeted Star N1.
D2: fran voted kits, stayed there. DW voted Sawrian, Schmuffin, and then had no vote at day's end. Claims to have watched Flush n2.
D3: fran voted Ouro early. DW too but also cleared and then revoted. Said no night action.
D4: voted StarBro - DW also voted xKark, racohrs. Watched Darryl N3.

7. [m] Xbro & [m] Karkador
D1: Xbro voted Orb. Kark voted Trigger.
D2: Xbro voted kits (last vote). Kark voted Ty4on/Trigger.
D3: Voted Ouro. Xbro also voted NatikoSparks.
D4: voted StarBro, Xbro did not vote or meet post count.

8. [m] Trigger & [m] Ty4on
Trigger had no vote (but did meet post count). Ty voted Flush, Kits twice (stayed on kits at end), xKark, Exoblend.
D2: Ty voted kits early, never moved. Trigger voted kits late, only action. Did not meet post count.
D3: Trigger had no vote. Ty voted monkey.
D4: voted xKark.

10. [m] Natiko & [m] Nomadic Sparks
D1: NS voted Flush, Ouro (stayed there). Natiko voted Ouro only.
D2: NS voted Tygger, Ouro. Natiko voted Tygger.
D3: Natiko voted Ouro. NS voted monkey.
D4: NS voted Darryl, StarBr; Natiko voted StarBro, xKark, CrimsonSophia
 

Dr. Worm

Banned
hey Kark

In case I don't finish the complete list in time, here's the short list:

Ty4on/Trigger : Ty4on has been the most active in the thread by far, and yet I can't really tell you what his angle is or what he has pushed for. He's somehow invisible. While other player couples have maintained a parity in activity (suggesting that they are discussing things and clearing ideas with each other), Ty4on is acting like a one-man army...OR, Trigger's input doesn't matter, because other players are discussing with him instead. We are getting played.

VOTE: Trigger

People are going in circles and it feels like a cascading cover-up.

And you know who is still ringleader of this circus? Ty4on, someone who has somehow gone under the radar yet again today. I am still really skeptical of his play-along tactics all throughout this game. This isn't just about the silly things like using the same phrasing as another player. Ty seems content to do a lot of gesturing and picking on easy targets.

Response to Darryl that he's "higher up" the list (more Town) now that he's reconsidered.

Now flops over to kitsune

But now kitsune is slightly townier? You say they're in flux, but I think they're acting very differently; hardly comparable. I don't understand what you're saying.

However I read it, it's still pretty clear that Ty4on is playing around with accusations on two very easy targets. Fep & Kitsune are, frankly, stumbling and doing weird shit all day. Darryl & nin are playing okay (Darryl, anyway), but naturally have big targets on their back because they're abrasive.

I'm fine with a fep/kitsune flip at this point (more so them than Ouro/kitty). They HAVE been weird and shifty. I am curious to see their flip. It *might* help make some connections. But that's how this whole push just slides along without scrutiny.

At the end of the day, you've bundled two options that are vote-friendly, so that we kind of direct all our attention that way.

VOTE: Trigger

I know this might not go anywhere at this point, but I need to reiterate it again in case I'm not here to do it tomorrow.

on D1 and D2 you threw us some posts going after Trig4on - the first eight minutes from EoD, the second twenty nine

from what I've gathered, your D1 argument is essentially just "Ty4on is playing too competently with a somewhat absentee partner" (which seems like a weakass weaksauce reason), while D2 is a little more indepth on his floppy voting and easy targeting

since these came at the end of the days, with the wagons established elsewhere already at those points, I honestly didn't really bother reading them. now that Ty4on is once again being considered for a lynch, how would you evaluate the arguments you've already made in the context of the past couple of days?
 
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