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[Royal_Flush]

Using tracker*

----

I see rumblings of Ty, is it actually happening?

Let's try

vote: Ty4on[\highlight]

 

[Royal_Flush]

vote: Ty4on

 

[Xbro]

I don't ser how the difference in posts between a pair is aligment indicative.

Just look at Ouro/Kitty. Ouro is, by far, the top poster in the game even when he was lynched two phases ago. And wasn't a very prolific poster at all. And both of them were town.

That's not necessarily a reason we're reading him, it's one of the reasons we started looking at him.

 

[Nomadic Sparks]

I believe my original suspicions about ty4on are being proven correct

unvote: hey_monkey


VOTE: ty4on

 

[Sorian]

Sorry Saw, I'd much rather follow my gut on this, it also forces a tie right now if I remember right which forces others to vote.

VOTE: Trigger

 

[YesNOnoNOYes]

DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

Trigger & Ty4on (4)
hey_monkey 4397
Royal_Flush 4402
Nomadic Sparks 4404
Sorian 4405

CrimsonFist & Sophia (3)
Natiko 4328
Dr. Worm 4356
franconp 4378

Sawneeks & Sorian (1)
rac 4264

hey_monkey & Royal_Flush (1)
acohrs 4234
Nomadic Sparks 4245 4404

rac & acohrs (1)
Sawneeks 4091
Sorian 4098 4405

Xbro & Karkador (1)
Ty4on 4235

No Lynch (0): Natiko 4233 4328

Natiko & Nomadic Sparks (0): franconp 4165 4378

No active vote for Day 5: CrimsonFist, Karkador, Sophia, Trigger, Xbro

Day 5 Postcount: acohrs 28, CrimsonFist 15, Dr. Worm 16, franconp 34, hey_monkey 63, Karkador 13, Natiko 45, Nomadic Sparks 28, rac 10, Royal_Flush 17, Sawneeks 13, Sophia 40, Sorian 47, Trigger 9, Ty4on 37, Xbro 14


Day 5 ends:

Automated vote tally here

9 votes for majority

 

[Natiko]

Sorian and Royal on that lynch? Yeah I can't imagine a harder pass lol

 

[Dr. Worm]

That's not necessarily a reason we're reading him, it's one of the reasons we started looking at him.

What were the reasons you came up with after you started?

 

[Karkador]

from what I've gathered, your D1 argument is essentially just "Ty4on is playing too competently with a somewhat absentee partner" (which seems like a weakass weaksauce reason), while D2 is a little more indepth on his floppy voting and easy targeting

Ehhhh, I don't know if "competency" is what I was trying to say. I guess it depends on what their goal is. If their goal was to appear very active while not actually moving the needle any which way, then sure, they were competent at that. But I don't consider that useful to town, just useful to self-perseverance.

The more pressing point I was trying to make was that along with the reasoning being rather wishy-washy, the picks were easy. In hindsight though, ty4on was juggling a push between kits and Darryl. The Darryl one didn't work out because there wasn't much political capital there. Darryl would go on to not get much more voting heat on him, and was NKed at the next available opportunity. One way or another, Darryl seems to be a target scum was concerned about, but not willing to keep making a public fuss about.

 

[Ty4on]

Oh wow, that's a change

I'm sorry for being afk. I'm sick and took a long nap after uni, but just took some fever medicine.

 

[hey_monkey]

Sorian and Royal on that lynch? Yeah I can't imagine a harder pass lol

LOL Sorian came in and I was like, uhhhhh should I reconsider? Oh well.

 

[Sorian]

LOL Sorian came in and I was like, uhhhhh should I reconsider? Oh well.

Reconsider then, nothing is stopping you. I think this is best of both worlds, my gut has been saying Ty for two days now. And Sophia and Crimson have been sketchy and fall into my PoE, I'm not losing sleep on either of these lynches.

 

[hey_monkey]

Reconsider then, nothing is stopping you. I think this is best of both worlds, my gut has been saying Ty for two days now. And Sophia and Crimson have been sketchy and fall into my PoE, I'm not losing sleep on either of these lynches.

I doubt I will. I feel strongly about Ty. I just always wonder about you, Sorian.

 

[Ty4on]

Ehhhh, I don't know if "competency" is what I was trying to say. I guess it depends on what their goal is. If their goal was to appear very active while not actually moving the needle any which way, then sure, they were competent at that. But I don't consider that useful to town, just useful to self-perseverance.

The more pressing point I was trying to make was that along with the reasoning being rather wishy-washy, the picks were easy. In hindsight though, ty4on was juggling a push between kits and Darryl. The Darryl one didn't work out because there wasn't much political capital there. Darryl would go on to not get much more voting heat on him, and was NKed at the next available opportunity. One way or another, Darryl seems to be a target scum was concerned about, but not willing to keep making a public fuss about.

I have no idea what this second bit is about. I've barely talked to Darryl this game and iirc he town read me.

If I wanted to push an easy lynch on D2 I could have pushed Ouro. It would've been consistent (ish) with my read of him as I went back and forth a lot.

 

[Natiko]

Just remember everyone if Sorian is scum his goal is likely to just hit one more mislynch. Then he'll be in position to frame someone as scum for the game winning mislynch.

 

[Dr. Worm]

The more pressing point I was trying to make was that along with the reasoning being rather wishy-washy, the picks were easy. In hindsight though, ty4on was juggling a push between kits and Darryl. The Darryl one didn't work out because there wasn't much political capital there. Darryl would go on to not get much more voting heat on him, and was NKed at the next available opportunity. One way or another, Darryl seems to be a target scum was concerned about, but not willing to keep making a public fuss about.

So, your take is that ty4on was undecided between lynching scum and lynching town, and chose scum? And scum wanted to pressure Darryl out on D2 but couldn't?

That'd implicate racohrs, wouldn't it?

 

[franconp]

Just remember everyone if Sorian is scum his goal is likely to just hit one more mislynch. Then he'll be in position to frame someone as scum for the game winning mislynch.

But for that to work he needs to not NK someone tonight as he is not a cop but a roleblocker instead. Exchanging a NK for a mislynch doesn't seem like a big payoff.

 

[Sophia]

*blinks*

Well that's an interesting push on Ty4on out of nowhere.

 

[Sorian]

Just remember everyone if Sorian is scum his goal is likely to just hit one more mislynch. Then he'll be in position to frame someone as scum for the game winning mislynch.

But for that to work he needs to not NK someone tonight as he is not a cop but a roleblocker instead. Exchanging a NK for a mislynch doesn't seem like a big payoff.

Not only that but your math is wrong. There are 8 teams right now. Likely 6 town vs. 2 scum (yes, I know you still mildly think 5 town vs. 3 scum but that's a moot point since we'd be losing on a mislynch today anyway).

6 v 2
Mislynch
5 v 2
No NK (to frame)
5 v 2
Mislynch
4 v 2
NK
3 v 2
lol Scumorianeeks lynch
3 v 1

In this world where I'm scum, I need two mislynches.

 

[Karkador]

So, your take is that ty4on was undecided between lynching scum and lynching town, and chose scum? And scum wanted to pressure Darryl out on D2 but couldn't?

That'd implicate racohrs, wouldn't it?

The thing giving me pause about Ty is that kits did indeed flip scum, and I think it would be suicidal in most cases to flip a teammate that early (and under my assumption that there were 3 teams). However, kits flipped a role that seems specifically intended to use in some kind of bus attempt. So maybe there WAS a plan to bus them out? Or perhaps try to trap someone as an "it" for going over the Majority line? We might be missing a piece of the puzzle.

What do you mean about implicating racohrs?

 

[hey_monkey]

*blinks*

Well that's an interesting push on Ty4on out of nowhere.

Yeah, I totally haven't been trying to lynch Ty for half the game, it's just out of nowhere.

 

[Sophia]

Yeah, I totally haven't been trying to lynch Ty for half the game, it's just out of nowhere.

Votewise it is out of nowhere, given Ty/Trigger had no votes until you voted for him.

I'm not complaining tho! >_>;

 

[Sawneeks]

Good morning everyone. Sorry for disappearing, was out later than I thought last night and just kinda passed out when i got home.

Gonna catch up now so brb

 

[hey_monkey]

Votewise it is out of nowhere, given Ty/Trigger had no votes until you voted for him.

I'm not complaining tho! >_>;

Nomadic's is sure interesting: thinks monkey is scum, votes with monkey on other possible scum. Explain that one. I sure can't.

 

[Natiko]

But for that to work he needs to not NK someone tonight as he is not a cop but a roleblocker instead. Exchanging a NK for a mislynch doesn't seem like a big payoff.

Not only that but your math is wrong. There are 8 teams right now. Likely 6 town vs. 2 scum (yes, I know you still mildly think 5 town vs. 3 scum but that's a moot point since we'd be losing on a mislynch today anyway).

6 v 2
Mislynch
5 v 2
No NK (to frame)
5 v 2
Mislynch
4 v 2
NK
3 v 2
lol Scumorianeeks lynch
3 v 1

In this world where I'm scum, I need two mislynches.

I feel like you both were a bit too eager and didn't bother to think this through.

6v2
Mislynch
5v2
NK
4v2
No lynch because of obvious mylo
4v2
No NK
4v2
"Hey I blocked rac last night!"
Rac is lynched
3v2
NK
2v2
Game over

One mislynch today and the path is laid out for this scenario.

 

[Sophia]

Nomadic's is sure interesting: thinks monkey is scum, votes with monkey on other possible scum. Explain that one. I sure can't.

Hah, yeah, I was just in the middle of posting how yours is the only vote on that Ty4on/Trigger vote that I feel comfortable about.

 

[hey_monkey]

The thing giving me pause about Ty is that kits did indeed flip scum, and I think it would be suicidal in most cases to flip a teammate that early (and under my assumption that there were 3 teams). However, kits flipped a role that seems specifically intended to use in some kind of bus attempt. So maybe there WAS a plan to bus them out? Or perhaps try to trap someone as an "it" for going over the Majority line? We might be missing a piece of the puzzle.

What do you mean about implicating racohrs?

This is part of why I still feel confident about Ty regardless of his vote on kits. My guess is that everyone agreed early on earning townie points on them.

Whatever strategy scum is using, it's certainly worked.

 

[franconp]

I feel like you both were a bit too eager and didn't bother to think this through.

6v2
Mislynch
5v2
NK
4v2
No lynch because of obvious mylo
4v2
No NK
4v2
"Hey I blocked rac last night!"
Rac is lynched
3v2
NK
2v2
Game over

One mislynch today and the path is laid out for this scenario.

But you need 2 nights for that. And that is taking for granted that we will vote No Lynch tomorrow.

 

[Natiko]

This is part of why I still feel confident about Ty regardless of his vote on kits. My guess is that everyone agreed early on earning townie points on them.

Whatever strategy scum is using, it's certainly worked.

Then who is the other scum in this scenario if they agreed early on? Why did Trigger hold off until late in the day to vote kit too? He could've voted earlier for better optics if this was their plan all along.

 

[Natiko]

But you need 2 nights for that. And that is taking for granted that we will vote No Lynch tomorrow.

But you only need one mislynch...which is exactly what I said. And if there's a mislynch today and people push for another lynch tomorrow then they're idiots.

 

[Sorian]

But you need 2 nights for that. And that is taking for granted that we will vote No Lynch tomorrow.

Fair, he isn't wrong, it is taking for granted that we vote no lynch but you absolutely should be voting no lynch in mylo.

 

[hey_monkey]

Then who is the other scum in this scenario if they agreed early on? Why did Trigger hold off until late in the day to vote kit too? He could've voted earlier for better optics if this was their plan all along.

I don't know. Said earlier that my biggest hesitation with a Ty lynch is I'm not sure who the teammate is. Earlier I would have said possibly Sorian. Sorian jumping on that vote puts me into a WIFOM spiral of nonsense. I doubt it's xKark.

But I don't really see anything they've done except vote for kits that felt pro-town. I don't see real scum hunting. I see some jagged behavior that doesn't make a lot of sense.

At the end of the day, though, I still rank my top three possibilities like this:

Sawrian and Sophist = most possible information from flip
Tygger = most likely to be scum/less information from flip

 

[Ty4on]

VOTE: CrimsonFist

For posterity's sake

 

[hey_monkey]

I believe THAT is now a tie.

 

[franconp]

Both Rac and Acohrs have their votes on someone who doesn't have any traction. Again.

 

[Sophia]

Crimson is MIA again.

*sigh*

This makes deciding where to vote difficult.

 

[hey_monkey]

And several people who have not voted which means the tide of this could in the last ten minutes, which seems like a really bad thing at this point in the game.

 

[Sorian]

Also for logistics sake, Trigger, Crimson, and Sophia are all capable of self pres votes which I would just assume are going to happen but I have no clue who is afk and who isn't at this point.

 

[Natiko]

I don't think I'll be busy at day end so I can probably move my vote if a tie becomes a huge concern but I'd much, much rather get Sophia's flip.

 

[CrimsonFist]

Sorry, I'm here now

Vote: Natiko

I'm still not sold on Ty4on, I just don't see them bussing so early. Don't really see this vote getting that much traction, but NatikoSparks is about the only team I feel ok voting right now.

 

[Sawneeks]

So what about the chat thing that we're sort of talking about/not talking about? Because I agree with you on behavior* with rac and acohrs but there are some very compelling meta arguments that convince me they may not be scum and perhaps they are not very engaged because they were coming in to replace a team that was already being scumread. I can get not feeling super motivated there. But it doesn't explain all their behavior... or maybe lack of? Because they're just not doing much. I find that scummy but it's difficult to say YES, THIS IS THE TEAM - so I'm just asking now: are you sure?

No, but I'm never certain anytime I Scum Read anyone. Even if I'm 99% sure that person is Scum I still know there is a 1% chance that I'm way off about my read.

As for Rac/Acohrs now I...don't know. I still feel there is Scum there and I understand the meta arguments being presented but that still doesn't excuse everything Muffin/Sam did and what Rac/Acohrs is doing now. But I also see that this train isn't leaving the station anymore and I doubt that if my huge post didn't sway anyone, I likely won't be able to do it now. I do want to say if they keep on living then please, please look at them. Everyone keeps getting on Sophia/Crimson and Ty's case for just having no presence and I'd argue the same thing is happening here but no one seems to even care.

However, despite my scumread of you on D4, my attention this dayphase has turned to royalmonkey. I scumread them more than you now and think their flip would be more revealing than yours

I have a feeling you're already asleep and out for the Day but

why

Something just occurred to me and I checked but if I missed anything, please let me know. After flipping out anytime someone voted her last game (meta, I know), kitsunelaine never appears to have addressed Ty4on's vote for her at all. No discussion, no defense, no nothing, and he had a vote from early until the lynch. She had arguments with a number of the other people who voted her, before or after. Not with Ty.

I don't remembering reading anything like that from her either but let me go check, I also want to check on something for Sophia/Crimson too

 

[CrimsonFist]

Both Rac and Acohrs have their votes on someone who doesn't have any traction. Again.

Oh, yeah, not so much being off wagon, but those votes are awful, and guess they're not planning on showing up to swap them either.

 

[Sophia]

Sorry, I'm here now

Vote: Natiko

I'm still not sold on Ty4on, I just don't see them bussing so early. Don't really see this vote getting that much traction, but NatikoSparks is about the only team I feel ok voting right now.

PRAISE BE TO CRIMSON

Vote: Natiko

 

[acohrs]

Vote: CrimsonFist

Well, my 2 scumreads aren't taking off, and now I need to decide between two wagons I don't like. Don't like how this ty wagon has seemingly sprung up out of nowhere when some pressure on crimsonphia occurred, the timing feels off

 

[Sawneeks]

Unvote

 

[CrimsonFist]

Oh, yeah, not so much being off wagon, but those votes are awful, and guess they're not planning on showing up to swap them either.

Vote: CrimsonFist

Well, my 2 scumreads aren't taking off, and now I need to decide between two wagons I don't like. Don't like how this ty wagon has seemingly sprung up out of nowhere when some pressure on crimsonphia occurred, the timing feels off

Timing

 

[hey_monkey]

Fair point re: certainty, because we ain't never. And I do think racohrs is presenting pretty poorly here - half-chasing leads that don't lead, not participating, not scumhunting. I agree with you. But logistics, too.

Flush and I are having a tiny panic attack in our boat because there are a lot of chances for a bad lynch here and there's no way to see how this will shake out, really.

 

[acohrs]

Timing

same hour and minute, scary...

 

[Ourobolus]

sawneeks & sorian (1)
royal_flush
rac

rac & acohrs (0)
sawneeks
sorian

natiko & nomadic sparks (2)
franconp
crimsonfist
sophia

hey_monkey & royal_flush (0)
acohrs
nomadic sparks

xbro & karkador (0)
ty4on

crimsonfist & sophia (5)
natiko
dr. worm
franconp
ty4on
acohrs

trigger & ty4on (4)
sorian
hey_monkey
royal_flush
nomadic sparks

 

[hey_monkey]

Vote: CrimsonFist

Well, my 2 scumreads aren't taking off, and now I need to decide between two wagons I don't like. Don't like how this ty wagon has seemingly sprung up out of nowhere when some pressure on crimsonphia occurred, the timing feels off

Please point to how pressure on Sophist changed today. Really, I'd like to see how there was a shift today because it could well influence my vote. And I'm not seeing it.