Dude, the ocean is a biiiiiiiiiiiiiig place. They'll find debris eventually.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean
- Thread starter Oersted
- Start date
- Status
Dude, the ocean is a biiiiiiiiiiiiiig place. They'll find debris eventually.
There are many.....MANY places in the contiguous USA that you can't see anyone under 8000 feet. Granted, this plane was far above that, but even with our coverage it's a crap shoot once you get out over the ocean.
sweetvar26
Member
I still can't believe there isn't concrete evidence of where this flight is. I thought everyone and everything can be tracked this day and age, but I guess not.
Negative. You'd be shocked at what we can't see.
Vüng Tàu is at the red arrow, far from the search location
If it's close to the coast, currents may have sent waterproof phones to the shores, making they ring as reported earlier
Vüng Tàu is at the red arrow, far from the search location
If it's close to the coast, currents may have sent waterproof phones to the shores, making they ring as reported earlier
What's the reason of searching so far west, where the word "Marlacca" is? Is that just because some s&r ships conveniently are at the moment?
That's what I was thinking yesterday. It's not even en route back to kl... The area suggests that the plane didn't go down right after they lost contact.
Spaaaaaaaaace
Member
My guess would be currents moving everything quickly.
SniperHunter
Banned
I guess Vietnam and Cambodia are very certain it didn't fly over their land, hence no active search on the land. Malaysia, on the other hand, not so sure about their radar coverage, thinks there is a slim chance it flew over the country even reaching the strait. For the vast water area to the east, I guess the s&r capability is just very limited so far away from the coast.
Insane Metal
Member
That distance in a span of just 2 days? No way. Unless there was a typhoon in the area.
I didn't know where that place was. Now it's really weird, if the plane is indeed there, well... I can't see this being anything but a terrorist attack. Let's say the terrorists had access to the cabin and made the pilots turn everything off, every form of contact, etc. Then they were forcing them to go to a specific target... but in a heroic act they decided to simply plunge the plane and kill everyone in the plane, rather than everyone in the plane + possibly hundreds more.
Yeah, I know how difficult to believe this is. It's just a possibility, a guess. I hope it's not the case.
that makes some sense.
From http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/359411/Strait-of-Malacca
but it doesn't explain why there is no search in the Gulf of Thailand.
They can only search so many places in X amount of time. Give them time and I'm sure they will. This isn't the first time they've had to do a S&R either, I'm sure they have a good reason on why they're looking where they are.
pigeon interrupted
Member
Experts are saying that it is likely catastrophic failure (instant breakup) on news. Apparently at 30,000 ft (expected altitude of flight) even if all engines fail, the plane could glide 100 miles.
Maybe they are accounting for that with the extended search area or has that been denied? It would be weird since, in that case, there would have been plenty of time to communicate an emergency.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Too soon to ask if Dharma Initiative has been contacted for comment?
So. Eerie.
So. Eerie.
Slurpy2k20
Member
Blows my mind that after more than 3 days, the technology of 2014, and 10 nations participating in the search, not a fucking HINT of a Boeing 777 full of passengers and their luggage has been found. I mean, there's tons of shit in a plane that would float. Stunning. The only thing I can visualize where this would be normal is if the damn plane dived straight to the bottom of the ocean in 1 piece- which wouldn't even be possible- and even if it was, shit would still have floated to the surface.
How the hell do these planes not have active GPS receivers which log everything until the moment of diaster? I can track my fucking phone anywhere it is in the world.
How the hell do these planes not have active GPS receivers which log everything until the moment of diaster? I can track my fucking phone anywhere it is in the world.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Is it possible the plane would have actually landed on the water, and then sunk?
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
There is pretty much zero change of landing a plane that size on the water intact. I don't know if the 777 has a ditch switch like Airbus does that would prevent it from sinking.
DiscoJer
Member
That was the basis for one of the Airport movies. '77?
Yeah, '77
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airport_'77
I don't know how plausible it is in reality though. This is the same series of movies where the pilot of the Concorde opened a side window to shoot out a flare (to distract a missile)
SniperHunter
Banned
I think they need to get subs and divers in there asap. The waters might be shallow and the debris might be stuck under mud or something. But this really is very strange. Usually you need to contact the tower before changing heading or altitude, but it appears this plane traveled far without anyone noticing. This could have put other aircraft in the vicinity at risk, what was the air traffic controller doing?
And to think the water is less than 100m deep is even more confusing. Air France crashed into water that is a few thousand m deep.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Didn't a pilot land a plane on water in NYC? I guess it was much smaller?
At the same time I presume if it had landed on water, there would have been a lot of signals sent out.
That plane was much smaller and the Hudson River is a lot calmer than the open sea.
A 777 pretty much has zero chance of doing anything except shattering into pieces if it attempted to ditch in the water.
There are subs but they can't obviously mention them - usually its secret where they are
SniperHunter
Banned
I meant the small mini robo subs, they are cheaper and more effective.
Singapore sent out a submarine rescue ship (MV Swift Rescue) , which carries a submersible craft, but there is very little it can do ( the submersible) before the plane is found.
SniperHunter
Banned
pretty sure the black box emits a signal for 30 days or so, I was just thinking these subs can pin point its location.
btw can ACARS be turned off from inside the cockpit? does anyone know?
Chittagong
Gold Member
I think the failure to find any debris at all in the current search locations confirms that the plane did not immediately disintegrate in the location where the signal was lost. Seeing how their search systems can spot an item the size of a football, something would have been spotted by now - a suitcase, a piece of fuselage, a life vest, a human. But - nothing.
This means the plane flew somewhere completely else before it disintegrated. So the scenario is
1 - All comms and tracking systems switched off purposefully / lost due to power failure. Switched off seams the only realistic option as there are many, many fail safes.
2 - Altitude rapidly changed to an altitude below radar coverage purposefully. The options here could be that it's to recover from a drop in cabin pressure or specifically fly under radar.
3 - Plane plunged / disintegrated after several minutes / hours of flight below the radar. This means it could be wherever.
The combination of
- not disintegrating at disappearance point
- no distress or failure signals
is the most interesting thing here now. It's hard to think of a scenario explaining this that is not malicious.
This means the plane flew somewhere completely else before it disintegrated. So the scenario is
1 - All comms and tracking systems switched off purposefully / lost due to power failure. Switched off seams the only realistic option as there are many, many fail safes.
2 - Altitude rapidly changed to an altitude below radar coverage purposefully. The options here could be that it's to recover from a drop in cabin pressure or specifically fly under radar.
3 - Plane plunged / disintegrated after several minutes / hours of flight below the radar. This means it could be wherever.
The combination of
- not disintegrating at disappearance point
- no distress or failure signals
is the most interesting thing here now. It's hard to think of a scenario explaining this that is not malicious.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Was a little bit smaller plane, but still large. The much bigger factor was landing on a calm relatively flat river, as opposed to landing on an ocean, which even when cal is going to have rolling waves.
It's much easier and efficient to just use ship sonar to pick the signal up. I suspect US navy's airplane like P-3C Orion, can do that from above.
SniperHunter
Banned
Yes, the lack of debris at this point at the probable location rules out an explosion. For example, when Air India 182 exploded @ 35,000 ft they found the bodies and debris floating in the water right away. I think Pan Am 103 was the same, but it exploded over land.
Lack of mayday is puzzling though, even in case of fire in the cockpit, the pilots could have sent a mayday.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
But an attempt to do so would probably break the aircraft into fewer pieces though no? Still if the pilots tried to do this, it's doubtful all communications systems would have been off.
Chittagong
Gold Member
The interesting tidbit from today to me was that all information of the plane's whereabouts and condition in the area it was flying in would be relayed by the plane's automated systems or the pilots.
In other words, if you switched all that off and changed altitude before heading back to radar coverage area, you would effectively make it seem that the plane 'disappeared' at an entirely different point than where it would crash.
The problem with this line of thought is that it opens up a whole range of questions that require even more contrived answers. Like, who would be sophisticated enough to switch off absolutely all things tracking and communicating? What would be the motive to not just crash the plane, but specifically crash it in somewhere unexpected?
Sectorseven
Member
That's way off course, isn't it?
DeadlyParasite
Member
This whole thing is strange. Could terrorists be effective/smart enough to disable broadcasts/tracking and then land the plane at a hidden airfield? Take the people out and make them hostages, refuel the plane and make way to some terrorist target?
So weird.
So weird.
SniperHunter
Banned
that's what I was wondering, can you even turn the ACARS off from inside the cockpit? Lack of ACARS info, lack of mayday and just lack of any communication at all points at malicious intent. Very similar to Silk Air 185 and Egypt Air 990 (although this guy didn't turn off anything, he just nose dived into the ocean)
Chittagong
Gold Member
Very unlikely they could keep the most wanted plane on earth hidden in any place in the world. Also, why go through the hassle of moving around 200+ passeners and make sure no one of them tweets anything when you could just steal an empty plane.
Nope, at this point it's highly likely that the plane has crashed, but just at an entirely different place than thought.
AstroNut325
Member
This post and your previous one is really blowing my mind at the moment!
It seems very likely something malicious is/was at play. Yikes... Something tells me I'm not going to enjoy reading the truth when it comes out.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
That would be a bit crazy. Imagine the logistics of that. You can't hide such a runway, and then you'd need to refuel the plane, and do something with the people, etc. Sounds way too complicated.
My guess is they have just been looking at the wrong place. The plane could really be as far as how much fuel it had would have allowed it to go.
BTW Guardian has live coverage, something they rarely do at this hour: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/11/mh370-malaysia-airlines-plane-search-continues-live
CNN reports debris found, not yet identified. Press conference which was cancelled is also back on schedule.
Let's take it one step even further. Just to cover all bases, "I think" gives him a clause of deniability in the off-chance that both logical conclusions of "crashed into the sea" (possible) or "still in the air" (...) are wrong, you can't say his prediction was incorrect.
This man is a prophetic genius!
Also "fish trap hook bamboo binocular" sounds like something Snake would jury rig together and by God it would work.
Well, we're all talking about finding something in the sea, but looking at the search area, it seems equally likely that the plane actually crashed inland in the Malaysia peninsular. Not sure how more difficult it would be finding a crash inland compared to finding it in the sea.
JennyTablina
Member
Question: why would phones of the passengers actually ring? Like if there was a crash, surely a majority would be broken or out of power? They certainly wouldn't work if the plane was in the sea right?
It won't.
PotatoeMasher
Member
I don't know if other places have fallen for similar things, but Otter Box has somehow convinced every American over 50 that they need a few feet of waterproof plastics surrounding their phones. Not that even being intact would help out on the open sea.
Beautifully Shaped Monsters
Member
Can anyone explain why they are focusing so much on the Strait of Malacca.
According to this image (from BBC)
It seems that they have been putting a lot of effort into that area despite it being quite far from the last contact point while so far ignoring large areas of South China seas and Bay of Thailand which, at least to me, seems much more likely.
According to this image (from BBC)
It seems that they have been putting a lot of effort into that area despite it being quite far from the last contact point while so far ignoring large areas of South China seas and Bay of Thailand which, at least to me, seems much more likely.
Chittagong
Gold Member
Once debris will eventually be found it will be very interesting to see the theory on how the plane ended up there and not where it disappeared.
Also it might be interesting that the plane was serviced 10 days ago. Given the next service was scheduled for the summer, that would indicate a cycle of roughly 6 months. 10days/180days gives 1/18 odds for crash on a random day happening within so soon after service. Not significant but certainly something they will look at.
Also it might be interesting that the plane was serviced 10 days ago. Given the next service was scheduled for the summer, that would indicate a cycle of roughly 6 months. 10days/180days gives 1/18 odds for crash on a random day happening within so soon after service. Not significant but certainly something they will look at.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked