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[diffusionx]

You're central idea (unless I'm mistaken) is that games which produce high tension are niche by nature.

I'm saying that high tension is a core ingredient in broadly enjoyable experiences.

So just because sugar is a core ingredient in a cookie...it's illogical to say "Well cookie X (low sugar) is more popular than cookie Y (high sugar) therefore sugar is niche by nature. No, sugar is still a vital ingredient and generally cookies with high sugar outperform cookies with low sugar.

Your cherry picking of EQ vs WoW is not a convincing argument.

I don't see how it is cherry picking because we are talking about mass engagement of a multiplayer game. I think it's a relevant example.

The question is does mass amount of people want this specific type of tension, I would argue no, because people don't like losing stuff in multiplayer games. We've seen this over and over. EQ was a game where you lost stuff on death and while it undoubtedly added to the tension, the game that did away with that was many times more popular.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I don't see how it is cherry picking because we are talking about mass engagement of a multiplayer game. I think it's a relevant example.

It's not relevant because we could both cherry pick examples supporting our thesis until our faces turn blue. Games are way more complex than that. They're composed of a myriad of factors that lead to success.

The question is does mass amount of people want this specific type of tension

This is a valid question.

I would argue no, because people don't like losing stuff in multiplayer games.

This, significantly less so. Rust isn't a phenom because it looks good or feels good to play. It's a phenom because of the fear of loss.

We've seen this over and over. EQ was a game where you lost stuff on death and while it undoubtedly added to the tension, the game that did away with that was many times more popular.

Roguelikes force total resets upon death - 0 meta progression. The roguelike genre is not popular.

Roguelites provide players with minimal progression upon death. The roguelite genre is insanely popular.

I think players want punishment because it makes the experience feel earned, more exciting, but too much punishment is off putting. You should watch this...

 

[Hideous Snake]

Pre-game takes forever to load

 

[yurinka]

Tarkov probably hasn't improved significantly from the 200k CCU during the coof that Men_in_Boxes always talks about.

The "200K users" comes from a 5 years old Reddit post of their company's CCO, but doesn't specify if he's talking about CCU, DAU, WAU, MAU or total players, he just said: "We broke 200k online and made a record!":

The company as I remember never posted numbers of sold units, but they post their revenue and profit here:
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/10036119/filing-history
Feb 1 2023-Jan 31 2024: revenue of 54,245,169£ and net loses of 1,474,719£
Feb 1 2022-Jan 31 2023: revenue of 65,608,544£ and net profit of 1,729,189£
Feb 1 2021-Jan 31 2022: revenue of 70,334,950£ and net loses of 718,795£
Feb 1 2020-Jan 31 2021: revenue of 91,162,250£ and net profit of 750,420£
Feb 1 2019-Jan 31 2020: revenue of 38,177,326£ and net profit of 240,981£
Feb 1 2018-Jan 31 2019: revenue of 18,470,764£ and net profit of 764,374£
(game was released mid 2017 and were working on it before release, but they didn't post there audited full yearly accounts for earlier years)

TOTAL FY2019-FY2024: 337,999,003£ ($449M) and net profit of 1,291,450£ ($1.7M). That revenue is insane for the first game of a new noname Russian 'indie' AA team.

We also have factual data from Twitch, where it had great numbers, the bottom labels are broken but they are aprox. from mid 2017, a bit before launch until now):

Average and peak daily viewers (pretty good numbers, and insane peaks in what I assume are seasonal new content releases):

Amount of channels streaming it (great amount in general, insane in peaks):

Average daily viewers/channel (around 20-40, outside peaks, better than average):

 

[yurinka]

To get some context in the Twitch graph, this is limited to the last 365 days and compared to somewhat similar / related top games related to Concord and Tarkov:

Average daily viewers:

Daily channels streaming the games:

Average daily viewers per channel ratio:

Summary: Valorant is had the best numbers for the last 365 days regarding watch time, stream time, peak of viewers, amount of streamers, average viewers and average channels. Destiny 2 was the best performer regarding peak of amount of channels streaming at the same time, and Marathon has the best (around 4x-10x compared with the others) average viewers/channel ratio.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

The question is does mass amount of people want this specific type of tension, I would argue no, because people don't like losing stuff in multiplayer games. We've seen this over and over. EQ was a game where you lost stuff on death and while it undoubtedly added to the tension, the game that did away with that was many times more popular.

Yes in terms of shooters and being last man standing in a BR game or a traditional mode with kills every 10 seconds. Easy to understand and action packed. Kill anything that moves and be the last guy in BR or meat grind it with more kills and your team wins.

In simpler game modes you can hop in and out of a match in 10 minutes and be done. Every shooter gamer has done that. You sit there and want to game, something pops up and you only get one match in before bailing.

No in terms of doing objectives, hardly any gunfights, getting your inventory wiped and any extraction games that have one death only.

Most shooter fans are No.

Think of it like sports games. You got everything from exhibition games to full fledged GM mode. I only play season mode because I don't want all the headache and slowing down doing GM stuff like salaries, trades, player X morale is down so his attributes drop 5 pts and stuff like that. Oh look, my inbox has the assistant coach saying player Z tripped on the sidewalk and is injured. No thanks. I just want to play and rack up wins without being bogged down.

 

[KyoZz]

Edit: just checked the number of players and............. Oof I'm honestly shocked

 

[StreetsofBeige]

900 users now. Daily Steam peak 1,200. Maybe on this final weekend, it gets back to 1,500-2,000 tops. All time high, just under 7,000. It's done.

https://steamdb.info/app/3547690/charts/#1w

ARC Raiders is now around 15,000 and it hasnt even hit the weekend yet.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

To get some context in the Twitch graph, this is limited to the last 365 days and compared to somewhat similar / related top games related to Concord and Tarkov:

Average daily viewers:

Daily channels streaming the games:

Average daily viewers per channel ratio:

Summary: Valorant is had the best numbers for the last 365 days regarding watch time, stream time, peak of viewers, amount of streamers, average viewers and average channels. Destiny 2 was the best performer regarding peak of amount of channels streaming at the same time, and Marathon has the best (around 4x-10x compared with the others) average viewers/channel ratio.

Marathon and Tarkov colours need to be different.

 

[Cakeboxer]

Edit: just checked the number of players and............. Oof I'm honestly shocked

The worst part is that this also includes employees, their family & friends and streamers. Open beta will show how big the interest really is.

 

[MayauMiao]

Edit: just checked the number of players and............. Oof I'm honestly shocked

To be fair, maybe servers are down for a desperate patch update?

 

[MMaRsu]

This is the greatest schmorgishborg of disqualifying statements ever. And to start off your post like that...

Haha what? He's absolutely right.

 

[Klosshufvud]

30k viewers on Twitch for Arc Raiders, sub 1k for Marathon. Seeing lots of positive impressions for the former, very little for the latter. Bungie/Sony better brace for the worst the way things are looking now.

 

[yurinka]

Marathon and Tarkov colours need to be different.

Yes, Sullygnome sucks when adding that amount of games. Here you have the same comparing only them:

Tarkov is a Twitch titan with insane viewship and amount of channels covering it. Regarding Marathon, still isn't released (it's when games have their main peak) but the gameplay reveal had a great coverage and viewship.

Due to being a closed alpha limited to a few streamers from NA the streamers coverage (so audience is limited, and same goes with hours of the day since nobody streams when US sleeps), but for that game the streamers have a bigger average of viewers. Meaning, an open beta or full release will get way more streamers and audience, specially once streamers realize that on average they get more viewers with this game:

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Yes, Sullygnome sucks when adding that amount of games. Here you have the same comparing only them:

Tarkov is a Twitch titan with insane viewship and amount of channels covering it. Regarding Marathon, still isn't released (it's when games have their main peak) but the gameplay reveal had a great coverage and viewship.

Due to being a closed alpha limited to a few streamers from NA the streamers coverage (so audience is limited, and same goes with hours of the day since nobody streams when US sleeps), but for that game the streamers have a bigger average of viewers. Meaning, an open beta or full release will get way more streamers and audience, specially once streamers realize that on average they get more viewers with this game:

This is why I think people are underestimating Marathon and overselling others.

A lot can still happen, but people are way too quick to jump the gun.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Hardly anyone wants to play on the final weekend. Steams CCU is only about 150 people more than yesterday at the same hour of the day. It'll probably peak out about 1,500 today. Right now it's less than 600.

ARC Raiders hit all-time high today of 18,000+. Assuming theres still more codes being sent out, it'll surely hit 20,000+ on Steam.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Hardly anyone wants to play on the final weekend. Steams CCU is only about 150 people more than yesterday at the same hour of the day. It'll probably peak out about 1,500 today. Right now it's less than 600.

ARC Raiders hit all-time high today of 18,000+. Assuming theres still more codes being sent out, it'll surely hit 20,000+ on Steam.

If you keep sending out invites and people who already have an invite can send 2 invites, then playernumbers will grow.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

If you keep sending out invites and people who already have an invite can send 2 invites, then playernumbers will grow.

Yeah, as long as you have 30 minutes and 4 games that option opens up to share two codes. Seems like a cool way to spread it.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Yeah, as long as you have 30 minutes and 4 games that option opens up to share two codes. Seems like a cool way to spread it.

The marketing is good for sure. No denying that.

 

[yurinka]

This is why I think people are underestimating Marathon and overselling others.

A lot can still happen, but people are way too quick to jump the gun.

Yep.

It's also worth mentioning their Discord size, I assume with people mostly to ask for an alpha/beta code, even if people knows it's limited to NA and probably won't receive it because it's a limited closed alpha. I did check the size of the official channels of these games (please notice the released ones may have many unofficial or additional ones for regions or game modes):

• Valorant: 1,433K people
• Fortnite: 1,266.8K
• Helldivers 2: 946.7K
• Apex Legends: 775K
• Escape From Tarkov: 482.7K
• Marathon: 426.7K
• PUBG: 316.5K
• Destiny 2: 120.9K
• Arc Raiders: 67.7K

It's pretty insane to have these numbers at this point, doesn't seem 'doomed' at all.

 

[Pop]

Marathons numbers could be significantly higher if they would actually invite people

Why such a small pool of players if you lifted the nda on the alpha. Just let people try it

 

[Shubh_C63]

Marathons numbers could be significantly higher if they would actually invite people

Why such a small pool of players if you lifted the nda on the alpha. Just let people try it

Even with the limited invited pool, bigger problem is even that limited pool not returning to play unlike ARC.

I'm hoping another Marathon Beta later where Bungie reveals everything, their last chance.

 

[yurinka]

Edit: just checked the number of players and............. Oof I'm honestly shocked

To be fair, maybe servers are down for a desperate patch update?

It's a closed alpha limited to a few thousand players from NA, and at that our most people in NA were sleeping.

They have over 420K people in their Discord, the place where you had to go to apply for a closed alpha invite.

Even with the limited invited pool, bigger problem is even that limited pool not returning to play unlike ARC.

That would be true if both would be adding the same amount of new players every day.

Maybe both have the same user retention (or who knows, maybe Marathon has a better one) but Arc Raiders introduce more new players than Marathon every day, resulting in these graphs.

It's too early to know, we'll see the full picture once both are fully open to everybody.

 

[clarky]

Hardly anyone wants to play on the final weekend. Steams CCU is only about 150 people more than yesterday at the same hour of the day. It'll probably peak out about 1,500 today. Right now it's less than 600.

ARC Raiders hit all-time high today of 18,000+. Assuming theres still more codes being sent out, it'll surely hit 20,000+ on Steam.

Pretty similar to the last test of Arc Raiders.

Marathon is basically at the same spot Arc Raiders was 6 months ago.

Nobody seemed concerned that AR had less than a thousand players back then.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yep.

It's also worth mentioning their Discord size, I assume with people mostly to ask for an alpha/beta code, even if people knows it's limited to NA and probably won't receive it because it's a limited closed alpha. I did check the size of the official channels of these games (please notice the released ones may have many unofficial or additional ones for regions or game modes):

• Valorant: 1,433K people
• Fortnite: 1,266.8K
• Helldivers 2: 946.7K
• Apex Legends: 775K
• Escape From Tarkov: 482.7K
• Marathon: 426.7K
• PUBG: 316.5K
• Destiny 2: 120.9K
• Arc Raiders: 67.7K

It's pretty insane to have these numbers at this point, doesn't seem 'doomed' at all.

Those numbers dont mean really anything. Fortnite is by far the most played game yet Valorant has more subs.

Marathon has 30% more Discord subs than PUBG, so does that mean it'll have 30% more gamers? PUBG right now has 200k CCU and a daily high of 600k. So Marathon will do better than this? Dont think so.

Helldivers has 3x PUBG Discord subs yet their Steam CCU/daily high is 30k. PUBG is 10-20x that.

 

[Fake]

 

[kevboard]

Yep.

It's also worth mentioning their Discord size, I assume with people mostly to ask for an alpha/beta code, even if people knows it's limited to NA and probably won't receive it because it's a limited closed alpha. I did check the size of the official channels of these games (please notice the released ones may have many unofficial or additional ones for regions or game modes):

• Valorant: 1,433K people
• Fortnite: 1,266.8K
• Helldivers 2: 946.7K
• Apex Legends: 775K
• Escape From Tarkov: 482.7K
• Marathon: 426.7K
• PUBG: 316.5K
• Destiny 2: 120.9K
• Arc Raiders: 67.7K

It's pretty insane to have these numbers at this point, doesn't seem 'doomed' at all.

the only way to get into the alpha test was to join their discord server.

that's why their discord is inflated like crazy. if alpha codes were handed out like other games usually do it, by either signing up on some website or through Steam, their numbers wouldn't be even a fraction of this.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

the only way to get into the alpha test was to join their discord server.

that's why their discord is inflated like crazy. if alpha codes were handed out like other games usually do it, by either signing up on some website or through Steam, their numbers wouldn't be even a fraction of this.

They forced discord sign ups? Thats ridiculous.

I dont know how common that is, but every early build or demo test I have ever played in life has never required a discord sign up. It may require an email sign up so you get on their mailing lists, but not discord.

 

[cormack12]

They forced discord sign ups? Thats ridiculous.

 

[Geruda065]

Any way to get in?

 

[nnytk]

30k viewers on Twitch for Arc Raiders, sub 1k for Marathon. Seeing lots of positive impressions for the former, very little for the latter. Bungie/Sony better brace for the worst the way things are looking now.

There's a big misconception about what players actually want. Companies blame turn-based gameplay for poor sales (like Square Enix), yet games like Expedition 33 prove otherwise. They keep pushing live service and PvP games when players clearly want singleplayer and PvE experiences.

I love Marathon's art style—it could've been a great PvE co-op looter shooter. Instead, it's some odd Apex/Tarkov mix that appeals to neither hardcore nor casual players. Meanwhile, Arc Raiders seems to get it right, blending PUBG and Helldivers 2.

It's baffling that Marathon ignores what made Destiny and Halo great: co-op, strong world-building, and gameplay-first design (fun!). Maybe I'm exaggerating, but still.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

It's baffling that Marathon ignores what made Destiny and Halo great: co-op, strong world-building, and gameplay-first design (fun!). Maybe I'm exaggerating, but still.

Marathon isn't intended to be the next Destiny or Halo though.

Maybe that's where some people already look at it the wrong way.

 

[nnytk]

Marathon isn't intended to be the next Destiny or Halo though.

Maybe that's where some people already look at it the wrong way.

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that it's wild for them to move in a different direction in terms of gameplay and aesthetic.

Don't fix what ain't broken? And at the same time, they already had a poor track record with Destiny updates that went against what the community wanted.

I hope I'm wrong here, I want Bungie to be successful. But Marathon is a real odd one. And I like odd, but I don't like sweaty pvp and I don't think many Bungie fans do.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that it's wild for them to move in a different direction in terms of gameplay and aesthetic.

Don't fix what ain't broken? And at the same time, they already had a poor track record with Destiny updates that went against what the community wanted.

I hope I'm wrong here, I want Bungie to be successful. But Marathon is a real odd one. And I like odd, but I don't like sweaty pvp and I don't think many Bungie fans do.

No doubt they knew not all Bungie fans would be happy, but that's probably also why they didn't dedicate their entire studio to Marathon.

I like both PvE and PvP, so for me, it doesn't matter which direction they go, they just need to make a good game.

And that's the real question: will they fuck up?
If they manage to solve the issues irt the biggest complaints, Marathon will do just fine.

And PvE gamers should just play something else.

 

[geary]

I dont know how advertising that after release you'll get a 4th map and will be awesome. The game didn't released, has 3 maps and your selling point is content to be released after day 1? What the fuck strategy is this...

 

[Luipadre]

I dont know how advertising that after release you'll get a 4th map and will be awesome. The game didn't released, has 3 maps and your selling point is content to be released after day 1? What the fuck strategy is this...

3 map is just pathetic at this point and they are not even that big. Dunno how many maps arc raiders will have, but they already have 3 in the tech test and 2 of them are huge and icredible detailed.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

3 map is just pathetic at this point and they are not even that big. Dunno how many maps arc raiders will have, but they already have 3 in the tech test and 2 of them are huge and icredible detailed.

Afaik ARC will have 4 maps as well, so basically the beta is the full game.

I assume ARC is pathetic is well?

 

[ricardo_sousa11]

942 players on a saturday.

-86% of player base in a week.

GG WP

 

[Luipadre]

Afaik ARC will have 4 maps as well, so basically the beta is the full game.

I assume ARC is pathetic is well?

Just take a look at arc maps and marathon maps. ARC maps are much bigger, way more detailed with a lot more interior spaces aswell. Not even comparable. Its like you want to compare call of duty maps to battlefield maps

 

[KyoZz]

HAHAHA always the same people acting like "everything is good guys!!"

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Just take a look at arc maps and marathon maps. ARC maps are much bigger, way more detailed with a lot more interior spaces aswell. Not even comparable. Its like you want to compare call of duty maps to battlefield maps

Ah ok, moving goalposts.

Carry on.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I dont know how advertising that after release you'll get a 4th map and will be awesome. The game didn't released, has 3 maps and your selling point is content to be released after day 1? What the fuck strategy is this...

Players will be able to unlock access to the 4th map relatively quickly. Itll be heavily marketed once they open up pre orders because they feel it's their trump card.

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

I dont know how advertising that after release you'll get a 4th map and will be awesome. The game didn't released, has 3 maps and your selling point is content to be released after day 1? What the fuck strategy is this...

The whole fourth map nonsense is a crutch apologists are leaning too heavily on. You're right, it's bad marketing and bad design. But the apologists wouldn't be making as big a deal out of it if the rest of the game looked up to par.

 

[yurinka]

the only way to get into the alpha test was to join their discord server.

that's why their discord is inflated like crazy. if alpha codes were handed out like other games usually do it, by either signing up on some website or through Steam, their numbers wouldn't be even a fraction of this.

Yes, almost half a million people joined their Discord to try to join a closed alpha that they knew were going to be limited to some thousands of players from NA.

Which is a huge number and shows there's a lot of interest in the game.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

I dont know how advertising that after release you'll get a 4th map and will be awesome. The game didn't released, has 3 maps and your selling point is content to be released after day 1? What the fuck strategy is this...

Lets say the 4th map is in fact awesome, how many times do we have to grind the 3 very sub par maps in order to get geared up for the 4th?

If we died on the 4th is our gear gone and we have to start the grind over?

If people want to pin their hopes on a mythical 4th map that paid streamers are suggesting will save the game might be in for a rude awakening

Marathon will likely find an audience but I think its in a lot of trouble if they still try to launch it in Sept

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Lets say the 4th map is in fact awesome, how many times do we have to grind the 3 very sub par maps in order to get geared up for the 4th?

If we died on the 4th is our gear gone and we have to start the grind over?

It's most likely going to be the same as in ARC, because ARC isn't any different in that regard.

Completely moot point if you don't have issues with the same thing in a different game.

As for the maps in Marathon, they stated that they can change over time over the course of a season and based on community efforts.
So it sounds like there will be more to it than just the 4th map.

But it's up to Bungie to sell us on this, because keeping things vague isn't doing them any favors.

If people want to pin their hopes on a mythical 4th map that paid streamers are suggesting will save the game might be in for a rude awakening

Marathon will likely find an audience but I think its in a lot of trouble if they still try to launch it in Sept

Marathon won't do worse than ARC in the long run.
At least for consoles, there isn't much competition for extraction shooters. That still hasn't changed.

And Marathon isn't the only game with paid streamers.

 

[Darchaos]

This fucking game No one wants to tuch this game, not even the ones that had codes for it, its just laying there dead in the water, its almost kinda sad.

 

[Klosshufvud]

Yes, almost half a million people joined their Discord to try to join a closed alpha that they knew were going to be limited to some thousands of players from NA.

Which is a huge number and shows there's a lot of interest in the game.

That's also the only place with interest shown in the game. Dead on Twitch in favor of Arc Raiders. The latter which also had far better streamer retention than the former. It's undeniable that the latter has gathered far more positive interest than Marathon



Bungie lives in a bubble.

 

[diffusionx]

Yes, almost half a million people joined their Discord to try to join a closed alpha that they knew were going to be limited to some thousands of players from NA.

Which is a huge number and shows there's a lot of interest in the game.

takes like 12 seconds to join the discord. It's literally a meaningless action. You can't derive anything in terms of interest from the Discord signup.

We dont even know how many people went ahead with the beta application which took a few minutes more.

 

[themonk]

I've not played Tarkov in ages but that game was/is just too hardcore for the console/mainstream folks. It just does not respect your time, for better or worse.

Great game though. Will probably attempt to get back into it when 1.0 launches finally, if i can find a set up that works for me personally.

You're wrong according to devs most people are playing Arma Reforger and DayZ on Console than they are on PC