This literally does not compute.
We have two plain-as-day numbers for COVID-19 deaths. One from the government's provisional update on March 27th that only applied to hospital deaths, and one reconciled report that accounted for all deaths, including those those in the home, and broke out the COVID-19 deaths from the big picture. The reconciled number was lower than the provisional one.
How are you using that number to say that actual deaths are 70% higher than initially reported? You're just going by that article that provides no source and suspiciously seems to be a misunderstanding by a math-impaired individual?
The reconciled number was the higher one. Across the graph. That's their whole point.
Why would a number only including hospital deaths be higher than one accounting for hospital deaths, home deaths, and late registration deaths for the same day?
The government themselves have said the daily figures are lower because of the lag. I'm not trying to start a pointless argument but I can't see how you've got it so backwards.
The 70% figure should really be 'as much as 70%' rather than a flat rate.
It's like an episode of The Twilight Zone. The ONS fatality figures are higher than the daily figures released by the government. It's inevitable because of the lag, has been acknowledged by the government, and is the same across the world.
Numerous reports from the US about how lots of home and pneumonia deaths were probably Covid, but which weren't recorded accurately.
The numbers suggest the UK is already at 1.5k today (well, according to a friend of mine who works in statistical analysis, so I wouldn't expect anyone to take that at face value, as I wouldn't) so given the lag we'll probably see an official government figure of around 2k on Easter Sunday, which the ONS will later report to be closer to 3k on the same day when other deaths have been factored in.
I hope I'm wrong and I'm certainly not trying to scaremonger. Rather than spam this important thread with this discussion let's just see what the figures are in the UK on Sunday. There have been noticeable troughs in figures on Sundays across Europe though, and it's also a bank holiday in the UK, so it's possible that we could see an alarming jump on Tuesday 14th.
Stay safe.