Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Tesseract

Tesseract

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ricardo_sousa11 said:
jesusfucking christ, are you having a mental breakdown or are you officially retarded?

your past comments are heartbreakingly retarded and offensive as hell, drink some tea and relax kid.
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i'm coding in ue4 and listening to a mix tape your mom gave me

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Jayjayhd34

Jayjayhd34

Gold Member
Today I'm starting develop a really high fever after few days of feeling sick however I've not thrown up I've got the shits too. However my chest is perfect no pains no cough. My question what do I now do self isolate? I don't how going to do this with there being no delivery slots.

I just dont understand how this happened if have got the virus I've not been near anyone and have been going shop at opening with no one in it and checkout has screens on.
 
rykomatsu

rykomatsu

Member
Jayjayhd34 said:
I just dont understand how this happened if have got the virus I've not been near anyone and have been going shop at opening with no one in it and checkout has screens on.
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Sorry for your situation - yes at this point, it's probably safe to assume you have contracted the virus. Depending on where you are, it might be worth looking for your local reddit. They've had folks helping out with shopping/delivery for those that need to self-quarantine, but can't get anything (because they're quarantined). Also, if it's just food and stuff - Uber Eats, Door Dash, pizza delivery, etc - all of them have drop-off options where they'll just leave at your front doorstep, text you, then leave.

None of the measures are meant to stop the spread. It's only to reduce.

While your exposure risk is lowered, that's all it is - lowered. You still need to go out with the expectation that you may contract the virus.
 
M

MichaelRR1989

Banned
'Paid for the damn virus that’s killing us': Giuliani rips Fauci over grants to Wuhan laboratory

Rudy Giuliani questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci's involvement in grants from the United States to a laboratory in Wuhan, China, that has been tied to the coronavirus pandemic.
According to a report, the U.S. Intelligence Community has growing confidence that the current coronavirus strain may have accidentally escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology rather than from a wildlife market, as the Chinese Communist Party first claimed. During a Sunday interview on The Cats Roundtable, Giuliani questioned why the U.S. gave money to the lab.

"Back in 2014, the Obama administration prohibited the U.S. from giving money to any laboratory, including in the U.S., that was fooling around with these viruses. Prohibited! Despite that, Dr. Fauci gave $3.7 million to the Wuhan laboratory — even after the State Department issued reports about how unsafe that laboratory was, and how suspicious they were in the way they were developing a virus that could be transmitted to humans," he claimed. He added, "We never pulled that money. Something here is going on, John. I don’t want to make any accusations. But there was more knowledge about what was going on in China with our scientific people than they disclosed to us when this first came out. Just think of it: If this laboratory turns out to be the place where the virus came from, then we paid for it. We paid for the damn virus that’s killing us.”

While Giuliani placed the blame on Fauci, who has been the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, it is not clear what oversight he had in the funding decisions. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases did award $3.7 million in grants to EcoHealth Alliance to study the “risk of future coronavirus (CoV) emergence from wildlife using in-depth field investigations across the human-wildlife interface in China" in wet markets, but not all of that funding went to the lab in Wuhan. President Trump has been asked about the matter and blamed the Obama administration for the donation, saying, "Who is president then, I wonder?" However, the funding was approved from 2014 to 2019, including $700,000 that was awarded under the Trump administration.

Giuliani called for an investigation into the Wuhan laboratory, saying, "Today, if I were U.S. attorney, I’d open an investigation into the Wuhan laboratory. And I’d want to know what did we know? How much did we know about how bad the practices were there? Who knew about it? And who sent them money anyway? And that person would sure as heck be in front of a grand jury trying to explain to me — what are you asleep?”

www.washingtonexaminer.com

‘Paid for the damn virus that’s killing us’: Giuliani rips Fauci over grants to Wuhan laboratory - Washington Examiner

Rudy Giuliani questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci's involvement in grants from the United States to a laboratory in Wuhan, China, that has been tied to the coronavirus pandemic. According to a report, the U.S. intelligence community has growing confidence that the current coronavirus strain may have...
www.washingtonexaminer.com www.washingtonexaminer.com
 
cryptoadam

cryptoadam

Banned
rykomatsu said:
But I was told a few days ago HCQ doesn't work... /s
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Well to be fair the article does say its because so many people in New York are on the drug they couldnt find enough people for the trial unless they also included it. But OTOH if it didnt work why would all these people in NY be on it.

Ncbi published an article in 2005 that said chloroquine stops the spread of SARS in cell culture.

Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread - PMC

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available. We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
Alx

Alx

Member
hariseldon said:
To think there are still people who don’t think it’s a bioweapon.
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There's nothing in that observation pushing the idea it could be a bioweapon, as a matter of fact I'm not sure the current state of medicine is advanced enough to engineer such an "effective" virus on purpose (heck we're not even able to cure it). While history shows that random mutations through natural process can achieve the same result (as a matter of fact the Spanish Flu would have been a better bioweapon, as it targeted young healthy people too)
 
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H

hariseldon

Unconfirmed Member
www.thetimes.co.uk

Anders Tegnell, the man who convinced Sweden not to go into lockdown

Sweden’s state epidemiologist tells Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester why his nation’s schools are open and herd immunity is still on the agenda
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk

The man who convinced the Swedish not to go into lockdown
Sweden’s state epidemiologist tells Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester why his nation’s schools are open and herd immunity is still on the agenda

As the world went into lockdown, one man, Anders Tegnell, convinced Sweden to try a different approach to tackling coronavirus. The country’s state epidemiologist persuaded Swedes to keep cities, schools, hairdressers and restaurants going and allow gatherings of up to 50. He insisted that borders should be kept open, even the famous bridge between Malmo and Copenhagen, although the Danes refused, and the Volvo factory closed only when it couldn’t source new parts from abroad. Yet Swedes can still sit in a café and sip a latte and eat a cinnamon roll and are encouraged to take as much exercise as possible outside.

Tegnell has been lambasted for endangering his country by some international scientific modellers who warned that up to 100,000 Swedes could die by the summer, but the mild-mannered civil servant is unrepentant and opinion polls show that the Swedes remain strongly in favour of his approach. The number of daily deaths is stable at about 75 and on a declining path and the number of patients in intensive care has flatlined.

“I think in many ways the strategy in Sweden is quite similar to other countries,” Tegnell tells us, not sounding remotely nervous about his decision to lead his country down an alternative path, although rather surprised that he has become an international celebrity. “We are all trying to keep the spread of this disease as low as possible, mainly to prevent our healthcare system from being overstretched, but we have not gone for the complete lockdown. We have managed to keep the number of cases low enough so the intensive care units have kept working and there has always been 20 per cent beds empty and enough protective equipment even in Stockholm where there has been a huge stress on healthcare. So in that way the strategy has worked.”

Why didn’t he go for the full lockdown when almost every other country has? It appears foolhardy. “Because we really believed that the methods we used would reach almost the same effect in Sweden. We don’t have huge gatherings or sport and music events. We have quite strict rules even for those organising gatherings for fewer than 50 people. They should be outside if possible and there should be handwashing and disinfectant; people coming are absolutely not allowed in if they have any symptoms. Elderly people above 70 should not be allowed either.”

Schools are still open. “But there are restrictions. The elderly are advised not to drop off grandchildren and nor is anyone feeling ill. We are trying to keep risk of contagion as low as possible. We are taking it incredibly seriously too, it’s just that we are using slightly different measures to deal with it.”

Tegnell won’t criticise other countries. “That is for history to judge,” he says, sounding more serious than smug. Yet Sweden has a higher death rate than its neighbour, Norway. “The high mortality rate in Sweden we can see is very closely linked to our elderly homes in Sweden. That has happened far less in Norway and Finland. We have looked at the death rates very closely and we are trying to work out why because there was already a ban on visiting care homes. But in the homes in Sweden they are really old and really sick and need constant care. They need people coming there and the lockdown can’t stop that.”

There is no policy to ration healthcare for the most frail and elderly, Tegnell insists, making it clear that this would be immoral. “If the doctor’s opinion is that this person can benefit from hospital care, of course they will go to hospital. If there is a decision that this is an elderly person with multiple diseases, they can end their life in a care home, but that is how it has always been, we have changed nothing.”

According to his team’s calculations there has been no higher rate of mortality in the rest of the population than in neighbouring countries. “It’s difficult because countries can’t give very accurate figures on the death rates they have with the elderly in care homes and the rest of the population. Sweden is one of the few that is being rigorous.”

However, fewer may die in Sweden from other diseases because the hospitals have remained open to all. “Fewer are coming for cancer and cardiac diseases, but we try to encourage them. We have a death rate increase in Sweden very closely connected to Covid-19 so I think we have persuaded most to take their other illnesses just as seriously.”

There was a letter from 22 scientists in the Swedish press criticising the Tegnell team’s methods last week, but he remains unshaken. “We have a lot of scientists behind us also voicing support for our strategy in a much more coherent manner than these 22 people. We all agree the death toll is high, but we are working very hard to understand why, and our initial analysis shows it’s not the partial lockdown, but the care homes where we have the problems and the solutions.”

Meanwhile, the Swedish economy has been far less badly hit than that of other European countries and is expected to contract by only 4 per cent this year. “I’m not an economist, but the UK is far more affected with more out of work,” Tegnell says, although he insists that he would never want to sacrifice lives to protect GDP. “None of our decisions are taken on economic grounds, but on having the most effective way long term of diminishing the number of people dying from this disease and overwhelming our healthcare. We are now spending enormous resources protecting our elderly homes.”

He talks about taking a “trust-based” approach. Does he think other countries are infantalising their citizens while Sweden is treating them like grown-ups? “I think it is a question of traditions. In Sweden we have a history of crisis-management; you are taught as much as possible to use the tools you use in normal times to keep going. That is why we aren’t trying to change too dramatically. It gives a lot of responsibility to individuals.”

Laws, he says, are very culture-dependent. “The Swedes have fewer regulations than most countries and their laws are a lot less prescriptive. The state directs their citizens with a light touch.”

The strategy is to “nudge” people into taking precautions rather than requiring them to stay at home. “If you feel ill in the morning, stay home. We keep on adding small adjustments to our recommendations all the time because we feel that keeps people aware that the danger isn’t over,” Tegnell explains, saying he doesn’t like to “shove”.

Fewer than 200 of the 15,000 cases in Sweden are among those under 20, he says, “so schoolchildren in Sweden, as in other places, are not very much affected by the disease. Closing the schools would not have much of an effect, at least not in our minds. We feel quite confident that that was the correct decision.” Universities are teaching remotely, but exams are still going ahead to keep children grounded. “Ministers have said to schools that all children should expect to have an exam this spring, just that it might be in a slightly different manner than usual.”

The British government has been heavily influenced by epidemiologists at Imperial College in London, led by Neil Ferguson, who predicted that 500,000 British people could die if nothing was done. However, Tegnell says that their dire warnings could be wrong. “Modelling is not a truth. You can very easily tell that the model they did for Sweden a few weeks ago has already been proved wrong because our charts are quite different from what they published. You need to realise that models are only as good as what you put into them and when you put into them very uncertain variables like what to do when you have a new disease . . . you should be careful of seeing them as projections of the future.”

There is, in his view, little chance of a vaccine in the short term. “Even the most optimistic people seem to say that if we have a vaccine available in the next 18 months we are going to be very lucky.” So the lockdown strategy, he says, will prove unsustainable. “To keep schools closed until we have a vaccine in place I would say that will not be possible because then you are going to see a big damage to a cohort of children in your country.” In any case, the elderly and vulnerable often respond less well to vaccines and so “we don’t even know if it’s going to work for the people we need to protect”.

That means countries around the world are gradually going to have to open up and allow their populations to develop a herd immunity like Sweden, he suggests. “Personally I think that is the only thing that is going to slow this down when we have a considerable proportion of the population in most countries who are immune to the disease, because these diseases are not stopped by anything else really if you don’t have a vaccine.”

A growing number of Tory MPs are arguing that the cure is in danger of becoming worse than the disease and that Britain should copy Sweden. “It’s difficult because we are not at the end of this yet to make any real conclusions right now about who has done the right thing and who has done the wrong thing,” Tegnell says, diplomatically. “I’m not sure that different strategies in the end will have a huge difference on the health; it might have a huge difference on the economy. It might be that, whatever we do, we can postpone the effects of [the disease], but we cannot avoid them. So whenever you have to stop these drastic measures you need to go into something that’s going to look more like the Swedish model, with softer restrictions.”

So far, at least, Swedes are on board with their government’s approach and believe that Tegnell is being pragmatic rather than taking risks. “With the exception of the mortality in elderly homes, which is really troubling, people are quite happy. More than 70 per cent of the population have a very high or a high level of trust in the public health agency, and about 90 per cent of the population feels they have good information and they know what’s happening.”

Tegnell does not always believe Sweden is best — he says he prefers the Beatles to Abba and beaches to fjords — but he appears quietly confident that Sweden will be proved right over its coronavirus strategy. When we ask whether Sweden might exit from this pandemic first, he says, “That sounds like a nice future,” and that his team spent some time this week discussing how soon they could “encourage people to come here and have holidays”.
Click to expand...
 
The Scrivener

The Scrivener

Member
cryptoadam said:


Interesting interview with the Doctor who started all this HCQ stuff. This guy is either one giant fraud and is risking his entire staff and hospital/research institute or knows what he is talking about.
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Any doctor with long hair and a beard is a doctor you can trust. If he listens to metal, you know he's got your best interest at heart. (In this case he probably suggests zinc and vitamins obviously duh fuck the man.)
 
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autoduelist

autoduelist

Member
Jayjayhd34 said:
Today I'm starting develop a really high fever after few days of feeling sick however I've not thrown up I've got the shits too. However my chest is perfect no pains no cough. My question what do I now do self isolate? I don't how going to do this with there being no delivery slots.

I just dont understand how this happened if have got the virus I've not been near anyone and have been going shop at opening with no one in it and checkout has screens on.
Click to expand...

There is no way for us to know. If you haven't been near anyone, then you did likely not catch a contagious disease. Food poisoning?
 
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autoduelist

autoduelist

Member
Djau said:
b1l70ck3hr611.jpg
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We could have glassed the country if we wanted to 'win', but that wasn't our goal. Occupying hostile territory is a recipe for endless war. That is to say, we 'lost' that war because we set ourselves impossible goals, not because we wer3 defeated in combat.

And to be clear, i'm not advocating glassing anywhere, and i am anti-war. But vietnamese farmers did not defeat America, America defeated America in that war. Unachievable goals led to extended death on TV led to the public wanting out. Same as in parts of the ME, without the TV to accelerate the will of the people.

Same thing can happen with covid. Any country that sets itself impossible goals [we will close the economy until we have a vaccine!] will lose the war.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
autoduelist

autoduelist

Member
darkestdame said:
389,000 Globally - 1 Year Flu

203,622 Globally - 3 Months COVID-19

US 61,000 High bar Yearly

US 54,000 in Two months
Click to expand...

Consider the possibility that covid is asymptomatic in most people, but wipes out the elderly, the morbidly obese, cancer patients, etc. Even those who are outliers [a 30 year old, for example] may be obese or have an undiagnosed issue like cancer since not everyone is being autopsied.

You would see a massive spike in deaths in which all the people who were going to die in the next 1-2 years are frontloaded into a several month span. Death tolls would seem abnormally high.

This theory would explain the death count yet still mean the average person would have little to fear.
 
llien

llien

Banned
autoduelist said:
Consider the possibility that covid is asymptomatic in most people, but wipes out the elderly...
Click to expand...
Stats from NY contradict that theory:



essentially is shows that the main reason why elderly are allegedly more affected is that they are more likely to have preconditions.
 
ricardo_sousa11

ricardo_sousa11

Member
llien said:
Stats from NY contradict that theory:



essentially is shows that the main reason why elderly are allegedly more affected is that they are more likely to have preconditions.
Click to expand...


This is quite scary basically 1890 deaths 18-64, which in comparison to the EU mutation, this seems to hit everyone much much harder.
 
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autoduelist

autoduelist

Member
llien said:
Stats from NY contradict that theory:



essentially is shows that the main reason why elderly are allegedly more affected is that they are more likely to have preconditions.
Click to expand...


I would argue they do not contradict at all. In fact, that chart supports my theory Skews very old, skews heavily with underlying conditions, which exactly fits. especially when we consider they are pushing for deaths to be labeled corona.

The only way that chart pulled 25% out of it's ass at the end is by including nearly 1k people over 75 as 'unknown if underlying condition'.
 
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llien

llien

Banned
autoduelist said:
...skews heavily with underlying conditions, which exactly fit..
Click to expand...
Underlying conditions are there, regardless of wulhan virus.
Charts how that a lot of younger people die from it.
And also show that "80% of people are 80+" which even BIll Maher hasrepeated, is bullshit, only 47% of victims are older than 75. (and 75 to 80 y.o. is quite a gap, mind you)
That isn't even remotely "just wipes older people".
 
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Djau

Djau

Banned
llien said:
Underlying conditions are there, regardless of wulhan virus.
Charts how that a lot of younger people die from it.
And also show that "80% of people are 80+" which even BIll Maher hasrepeated, is bullshit, only 47% of victims are older than 75. (and 75 to 80 y.o. is quite a gap, mind you)
That isn't even remotely "just wipes older people".
Click to expand...

I'm not understanding why people aren't getting this; well barring the conspiracy theory people.

autoduelist said:
We could have glassed the country if we wanted to 'win', but that wasn't our goal. Occupying hostile territory is a recipe for endless war. That is to say, we 'lost' that war because we set ourselves impossible goals, not because we wer3 defeated in combat.

And to be clear, i'm not advocating glassing anywhere, and i am anti-war. But vietnamese farmers did not defeat America, America defeated America in that war. Unachievable goals led to extended death on TV led to the public wanting out. Same as in parts of the ME, without the TV to accelerate the will of the people.

Same thing can happen with covid. Any country that sets itself impossible goals [we will close the economy until we have a vaccine!] will lose the war.
Click to expand...

Coulda, woulda, shoulda
 
Chittagong

Chittagong

Gold Member
darkestdame said:
389,000 Globally - 1 Year Flu

203,622 Globally - 3 Months COVID-19

US 61,000 High bar Yearly

US 54,000 in Two months
Click to expand...

Given that COVID-19 is said to be much more infectious, with R0 of 1.3 (seasonal flu) vs R0 of 5.7 (COVID-19) what you are looking at is a situation where a high number of COVID-19 infections acts as a flip side of the mortality rate.

Let's use 10x more infectious as an easy number. This means COVID-19 would infect the same amount of people in a quarter than a seasonal flu infects in 10 quarters (2.5 years). So in three months, you are basically seeing as much carnage as seasonal flu causes in 2.5 years - 2.5 * 389,000 = 972,500. If 10x more infectious is the case, COVID-19 would need to be about half as deadly to match current numbers.

Take your pick:

If we accept that COVID-19 is much more infectious than seasonal flu, then it must follow that it is about as deadly, or less deadly.

If we accept that COVID-19 is much more deadly than seasonal flu, then it must follow that it is about as infectious.
 
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llien

llien

Banned
Chittagong said:
If we accept that COVID-19 is much more infectious than seasonal flu, then it must follow that it is about as deadly, or less deadly.
Click to expand...
That's a way to twist figures, I guess, but at the end of the day is the same old lies by "just a flu" folks.
You assume that number of infected is way WAY beyond what any study has shown along with concluding CFR much MUCH lower than we have seen even in isolated groups, such as "Diamond Princess" ship.
 
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The_Observer

The_Observer

Member
MichaelRR1989 said:
'Paid for the damn virus that’s killing us': Giuliani rips Fauci over grants to Wuhan laboratory

Rudy Giuliani questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci's involvement in grants from the United States to a laboratory in Wuhan, China, that has been tied to the coronavirus pandemic.
According to a report, the U.S. Intelligence Community has growing confidence that the current coronavirus strain may have accidentally escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology rather than from a wildlife market, as the Chinese Communist Party first claimed. During a Sunday interview on The Cats Roundtable, Giuliani questioned why the U.S. gave money to the lab.

"Back in 2014, the Obama administration prohibited the U.S. from giving money to any laboratory, including in the U.S., that was fooling around with these viruses. Prohibited! Despite that, Dr. Fauci gave $3.7 million to the Wuhan laboratory — even after the State Department issued reports about how unsafe that laboratory was, and how suspicious they were in the way they were developing a virus that could be transmitted to humans," he claimed. He added, "We never pulled that money. Something here is going on, John. I don’t want to make any accusations. But there was more knowledge about what was going on in China with our scientific people than they disclosed to us when this first came out. Just think of it: If this laboratory turns out to be the place where the virus came from, then we paid for it. We paid for the damn virus that’s killing us.”

While Giuliani placed the blame on Fauci, who has been the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, it is not clear what oversight he had in the funding decisions. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases did award $3.7 million in grants to EcoHealth Alliance to study the “risk of future coronavirus (CoV) emergence from wildlife using in-depth field investigations across the human-wildlife interface in China" in wet markets, but not all of that funding went to the lab in Wuhan. President Trump has been asked about the matter and blamed the Obama administration for the donation, saying, "Who is president then, I wonder?" However, the funding was approved from 2014 to 2019, including $700,000 that was awarded under the Trump administration.

Giuliani called for an investigation into the Wuhan laboratory, saying, "Today, if I were U.S. attorney, I’d open an investigation into the Wuhan laboratory. And I’d want to know what did we know? How much did we know about how bad the practices were there? Who knew about it? And who sent them money anyway? And that person would sure as heck be in front of a grand jury trying to explain to me — what are you asleep?”

www.washingtonexaminer.com

‘Paid for the damn virus that’s killing us’: Giuliani rips Fauci over grants to Wuhan laboratory - Washington Examiner

Rudy Giuliani questioned Dr. Anthony Fauci's involvement in grants from the United States to a laboratory in Wuhan, China, that has been tied to the coronavirus pandemic. According to a report, the U.S. intelligence community has growing confidence that the current coronavirus strain may have...
www.washingtonexaminer.com www.washingtonexaminer.com
Click to expand...
So the guy that is hanging with such "philanthropists" like Soros and Rockefeller was giving money to the Wuhan lab? Oh, what a coincidence.
 
MisterFalcon

MisterFalcon

Member
autoduelist said:
Consider the possibility that covid is asymptomatic in most people, but wipes out the elderly, the morbidly obese, cancer patients, etc. Even those who are outliers [a 30 year old, for example] may be obese or have an undiagnosed issue like cancer since not everyone is being autopsied.

You would see a massive spike in deaths in which all the people who were going to die in the next 1-2 years are frontloaded into a several month span. Death tolls would seem abnormally high.

This theory would explain the death count yet still mean the average person would have little to fear.
Click to expand...

Just wondering, does 'the average person' not include the 30+ million Americans with diabetes ?
 
Chittagong

Chittagong

Gold Member
llien said:
That's a way to twist figures, I guess, but at the end of the day is the same old lies by "just a flu" folks.
You assume that number of infected is way WAY beyond what any study has shown along with concluding CFR much MUCH lower than we have seen even in isolated groups, such as "Diamond Princess" ship.
Click to expand...

The CFR really hinges on our understanding of R0.

I think the isolated groups like ships are indeed the most interesting ones to study, being aware of the shortcoming they have is that they may be skewed in age and underlying condition diversity towards the more vulnerable groups. Here is a good summary - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w

In terms of absolute numbers, even if not representative of general population, Diamond Princess had 3,711 passengers, of whom 696 tested positive (18.76%) 14 died (0.38% of total population / 2% of infected). The R0 was 7 which is 6x higher than seasonal flu.

If we apply simply that 6x higher CFR to the quarterly figures of deaths, COVID-19 will cause same damage in one quarter as flu does in six quarters or 1.5 years. This is a massive low ball naturally because 6x higher R0 leads to way more than 6x infections.

389,000 Globally - 1 Year Flu
Click to expand...

389,000 * 1.5 = 583,500
Reported COVID-19 deaths to date = 207,262

Probably the actual death figure could be any where up to 2x higher, which takes COVID-19 broadly in line with the seasonal flu CFR.

Speculative real COVID-19 deaths to date assuming 2 x under reporting = 414,524
 
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llien

llien

Banned
Chittagong said:
The CFR really hinges on our understanding of R0.
Click to expand...
No, R0 (reproduction number, or, how many people get infected by one infected person) has nothing to do with it, like at all as it's bananas to compare R0 of "normal flu" with R0 of disease that caused half of the world to put economy on hold, and pretend it didn't change over time.
Spanish kids COULD NOT LEAVE HOMES for the last 6 weeks.
The fucking R0 went from "some high number" to 0.8-0.9 in Germany.

CFR is strictly based on "the following fraction of number of infected" died.

China
South Korea
Germany, Switzerland, Austria, which are half way FROM the peak
New Zealand
Diamond fucking Princess

All lie in low %, above 1%.


Chittagong said:
COVID-19 will cause same damage in one quarter as flu does
Click to expand...
In other words, let's pretend static COVID-19 R0 is a thing to make the lovely "just a flu" flawed argument.


Chittagong said:
in line with the seasonal flu CFR.
Click to expand...
BPyNNu9.gif
 
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Chittagong

Chittagong

Gold Member
llien said:
Chittagong said:
COVID-19 will cause same damage in one quarter as flu does
Click to expand...
In other words, let's pretend static COVID-19 R0 is a thing to make the lovely "just a flu" flawed argument.
Click to expand...

Come on man. It looks as if you purposefully left out the beginning and ending of my sentence to dismiss my argument into the 'just a flu' bucket.

Chittagong said:
If we apply simply that 6x higher CFR to the quarterly figures of deaths, COVID-19 will cause same damage in one quarter as flu does in six quarters or 1.5 years.
Click to expand...
 
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