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[hariseldon]

Why we aren't wearing masks in Sweden

Anders Tegnell, architect of a unique response to the pandemic, defends his approach

unherd.com

An interesting and intelligent article about the Swedish approach to covid, in a chat with its architect. Some might find it an interesting read as it seems his thinking considers not just covid but also the effects of lockdown and the non-covid deaths that causes. It seems he's been able to have a far fuller view of impact, and been allowed to act on it, than the rest of the world where we screech that we must stop 10 people dying of covid even if it causes 100 deaths due to shutdown. Sensibly he's not basing his strategy on any magical thinking about a vaccine but rather preparing the population to effectively self-vaccinate the old-fashioned way, and if that's not possible to find ways to live with the virus long term.

 

[MisterFalcon]

I saw that on youtube and Tegnell is trying a bit too hard there to avoid criticism. He keeps bringing up how useless modeling is and at the same time claims to have saved a lot of lives by not locking down from the health effects related to the lockdown. Newsflash Anders, those are from a model too. And of the predicted surge in suicides nothing has come to pass, if anything suicides are down as kids were not bullied in school and lonely people got to feel a little better at things.

 

[DeepBreath87]

I don’t know, here in New York, it spread more or less unimpeded from the beginning (which people generally think is early January, although weirdly it seems nobody really cares anymore) until mid-March. Our system was able to handle it. We honestly don’t know how many people had COVID in that time frame and for a month or two after, but all we do know is that it was a lot lot lot more than the official numbers. Chances are, based on the preliminary antibody tests, New York was getting 100k new cases a day for a bit, and again, we handled it.

Yeah. But I do think so people died in New York that maybe wouldn't have had the wave of patients been more gradual. The level of care in some of those hospitals was lower than it normally would've been in critically ill patients. I think the reason the death numbers are so high in New York compared to Florida has to do with that more than anything else. Florida, for all the shit they get, is doing this pretty much right. You can't prevent all death. But you can make sure fewer people die by doing a few things to dampen the spikes when they come.

 

[segasonic]

You know that Chinese have already started vaccinating their army? Vaccine will be available by early 2021. That Swedish dude is responsible for the death of around 4,000 people...

 

[Nymphae]

if anything suicides are down as....lonely people got to feel a little better at things.

What does that even mean

 

[DeepBreath87]

I saw that on youtube and Tegnell is trying a bit too hard there to avoid criticism. He keeps bringing up how useless modeling is and at the same time claims to have saved a lot of lives by not locking down from the health effects related to the lockdown. Newsflash Anders, those are from a model too. And of the predicted surge in suicides nothing has come to pass, if anything suicides are down as kids were not bullied in school and lonely people got to feel a little better at things.

Seriously? Zoloft is now on the drug shortage list in the United States. I don’t think depression is getting better. I can’t believe you think people already struggling with isolation feel better right now.

 

[Jooxed]

They really do though.

broken heart emoji

 

[008]

Yelp says more than half of restaurants temporarily closed are now permanently shuttered

Eateries have been hit the hardest.

mashable.com

I can confirm that several of my go to places are gone forever, because of the flu.

Yep. I’m part of Facebook groups of my local areas and businesses are going away for good. It’s disappointing to see.

 

[hariseldon]

Yep. I’m part of Facebook groups of my local areas and businesses are going away for good. It’s disappointing to see.

Yeah it sucks, some great businesses are going to go under - bad for me as a customer no doubt (I'm doing what I can to support local businesses I want to see remain open but I'm just one guy) but far worse for small businesses that are almost always someone's dream taken away from them, first jobs taken away from young people making their way into the world, etc. The positiveist in me hopes that new businesses sprout from the ashes, but who knows if that will happen or bigger businesses will fill the gaps and leave no space for the little guy.

 

[008]

Yeah it sucks, some great businesses are going to go under - bad for me as a customer no doubt (I'm doing what I can to support local businesses I want to see remain open but I'm just one guy) but far worse for small businesses that are almost always someone's dream taken away from them, first jobs taken away from young people making their way into the world, etc. The positiveist in me hopes that new businesses sprout from the ashes, but who knows if that will happen or bigger businesses will fill the gaps and leave no space for the little guy.

Hate to say it, it’s only going to get worse. And I live in a tourist busy area in the Florida panhandle.

Bad times are happening now and coming with a force in the next 6-9 months

 

[DeepBreath87]

Hate to say it, it’s only going to get worse. And I live in a tourist busy area in the Florida panhandle.

Bad times are happening now and coming with a force in the next 6-9 months

Its true. People don't realize what is coming because we've been pumping enormous amounts of money into the ecosystem. However, money is only effective if it creates demand for goods, and that isn't happening in many places right now. There is going to be lasting economic pain for many, many people.

 

[Stouffers]

They really do though.

Do I deserve to die?

 

[DeepBreath87]

Do I deserve to die?

It’s not really about deserves. I mean you can see that comic however you choose, but the idea that someone who has taken very poor effort in managing their own health would demand others do things to keep them healthy is pretty hypocritical. How can you presume to ask others to keep you healthy when you are not doing things to keep yourself healthy? That’s what I get from it anyway.

But no, you don’t deserve to die. Not just from COVID but from multitude of other negative health outcomes that come with obesity. I hope, if you are very overweight, you will take those just as seriously as COVID.

 

[Captain Smoker]

An interesting and intelligent article about the Swedish approach to covid, in a chat with its architect. Some might find it an interesting read as it seems his thinking considers not just covid but also the effects of lockdown and the non-covid deaths that causes. It seems he's been able to have a far fuller view of impact, and been allowed to act on it, than the rest of the world where we screech that we must stop 10 people dying of covid even if it causes 100 deaths due to shutdown. Sensibly he's not basing his strategy on any magical thinking about a vaccine but rather preparing the population to effectively self-vaccinate the old-fashioned way, and if that's not possible to find ways to live with the virus long term.

So being under lockdown magically increases the need for ICUs and ventilators?

World is probably going to hit 1.000.000 dead people in September and some of you guys are still in denial.


"Open everything up" / "Do nothing" obviously worked like a charm in America.

 

[hariseldon]

Do I deserve to die?

Are you fat due to eating a shitload of food and not putting in any effort to move? If so, you've made lifestyle choices that make it more likely you'll die, and you will have done so knowing this. In that case, yes. If you have a genuine medical reason that is not due to your life choices, no.

 

[Nymphae]

 

[Stouffers]

Are you fat due to eating a shitload of food and not putting in any effort to move? If so, you've made lifestyle choices that make it more likely you'll die, and you will have done so knowing this. In that case, yes. If you have a genuine medical reason that is not due to your life choices, no.

Well, what if I was in a car wreck that took me out of the game for a while? During that time because of depression and re-injury, I packed on a ton of weight. When I was physically able to exercise, I was hit with a number of new medical problems: brain aneurism, skin cancer, thyroid module with calcification and regular dizziness and severe panic attacks which didn’t really help my depression. I’ve been walking/running a good bit during the lockdown and I’ve lost some weight, but I feel like it’ll be too little too late. You always think you’ll have more time.

 

[Nymphae]

During that time because of depression and re-injury, I packed on a ton of weight.

Why

 

[DeepBreath87]

Well, what if I was in a car wreck that took me out of the game for a while? During that time because of depression and re-injury, I packed on a ton of weight. When I was physically able to exercise, I was hit with a number of new medical problems: brain aneurism, skin cancer, thyroid module with calcification and regular dizziness and severe panic attacks which didn’t really help my depression. I’ve been walking/running a good bit during the lockdown and I’ve lost some weight, but I feel like it’ll be too little too late. You always think you’ll have more time.

Life is hard, but I missed the part where you took any responsibility for making poor choices when it comes to your eating habits.

A person’s weight is 80% diet. Exercise is beneficial, but diet is the driver of weight. Good or bad.

 

[diffusionx]

So being under lockdown magically increases the need for ICUs and ventilators?

World is probably going to hit 1.000.000 dead people in September and some of you guys are still in denial.


"Open everything up" / "Do nothing" obviously worked like a charm in America.

Where are you from? Do you understand that the US did not open everything up, and did not do nothing? We had a nationwide lockdown! Despite the fact that there were serious problems really only in New York and New Jersey, every state was locked down in some form. States with low case amounts, low R's, and adequate hospital capacity opened up gradually, for weeks, with zero problems, until the fucking protests just blew everything up.

This idea that the entire country sat around and just let it spread is so fucking wrong, yet somehow it keeps popping up. Where does it come from? We aren't talking about ancient Greek history here, we are talking about April and May.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

I had forgotten to check in about Bolsonaro. Guess he never got severe symptoms?

 

[Stouffers]

Why

For a number of years I lifted 3-4 days a week and ran 25-30 miles a week. My caloric intake matched my activity. When I was knocked out of commission, my diet didn’t change resulting in weight gain.

 

[hariseldon]

Well, what if I was in a car wreck that took me out of the game for a while? During that time because of depression and re-injury, I packed on a ton of weight. When I was physically able to exercise, I was hit with a number of new medical problems: brain aneurism, skin cancer, thyroid module with calcification and regular dizziness and severe panic attacks which didn’t really help my depression. I’ve been walking/running a good bit during the lockdown and I’ve lost some weight, but I feel like it’ll be too little too late. You always think you’ll have more time.

I'd call that life handing you a shit sandwich - no blame to hand out there (mental health is very fucking hard to maintain). Health is a mother-fucker, I know because honestly it hit us both like a truck when my wife got diagnosed with MS, shit just comes out of nowhere. So long as you're doing everything you can to fix the bits you can fix, you're doing the right thing.

In general my philosophy, if I was unclear, is that each individual should do what they can to improve their odds. It's not a magic guarantee that all will be well, nothing is, but it makes a difference. If someone's cramming cake down their gullet while claiming all the benefits under the sun with no interest in turning their life around, that's a choice they've made and when it goes wrong, fuck them. However if a person has put their best effort in and has been hit by some cunty bit of cunty randomness, that's not their fault and that is why for instance I favour our NHS model in the UK over the insurance system in the US.

 

[Nymphae]

For a number of years I lifted 3-4 days a week and ran 25-30 miles a week. My caloric intake matched my activity. When I was knocked out of commission, my diet didn’t change resulting in weight gain.

Could you have changed your diet?

 

[cryptoadam]

Where are you from? Do you understand that the US did not open everything up, and did not do nothing? We had a nationwide lockdown! Despite the fact that there were serious problems really only in New York and New Jersey, every state was locked down in some form. States with low case amounts, low R's, and adequate hospital capacity opened up gradually, for weeks, with zero problems, until the fucking protests just blew everything up.

This idea that the entire country sat around and just let it spread is so fucking wrong, yet somehow it keeps popping up. Where does it come from? We aren't talking about ancient Greek history here, we are talking about April and May.

Shitty media, shitty twitter, Orange Man Bad. Thats where it all comes from.

 

[Stouffers]

Could you have changed your diet?

Of course. My “do I deserve to die?” wasn’t meant to be taken seriously. I could’ve adjusted, but sometimes it’s just not that easy. After a while, it begins to snowball and before you know it ,you’re in it pretty deep.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

The weird thing about masks, is that I know the vast majority of people are not discarding them after use or washing them regularly. You'll basically see a mask sitting on the dashboard or hanging from the rear view mirror in every car around here. That's where they go whenever someone is back from inside a store.

These things are getting absolutely filthy over time, and yet people are constantly putting them on their faces and breathing through them.

 

[Nymphae]

Of course. My “do I deserve to die?” wasn’t meant to be taken seriously. I could’ve adjusted, but sometimes it’s just not that easy. After a while, it begins to snowball and before you know it ,you’re in it pretty deep.

Fat by choice, got it.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Where are you from? Do you understand that the US did not open everything up, and did not do nothing? We had a nationwide lockdown! Despite the fact that there were serious problems really only in New York and New Jersey, every state was locked down in some form. States with low case amounts, low R's, and adequate hospital capacity opened up gradually, for weeks, with zero problems, until the fucking protests just blew everything up.

(...)

Here's a study refuting your claim: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Where is the massive increase in numbers in New York City for example, guess they had no protests?

And I'm not talking about your measures from some few months ago, I'm talking about the recent response of local governors that saw numbers crawling up.


And what's your reasoning for Brazils failure, also BLM protests?

 

[hariseldon]

Of course. My “do I deserve to die?” wasn’t meant to be taken seriously. I could’ve adjusted, but sometimes it’s just not that easy. After a while, it begins to snowball and before you know it ,you’re in it pretty deep.

My take on it is that the crash happened and you made an initial failure by continuing with the diet while not matching it with exercise. I can see how that can happen - I also suspect that had the follow up shit not occurred you might well have cottoned on and fixed it. I think Nymphae is being a little unfair in that regard. Those follow-on events are really nasty shit. All of us have spells where we screw up - lockdown saw my weight go into the overweight BMI bracket for the first time, but I saw that and thought fuck this, it has to go, and took action. If I'd been unlucky at that point and had those follow-on incidents I would probably have the same issues. As it is, touch wood, I've been lucky with my health and gotten away with my moment of weakness.

 

[Nymphae]

I think Nymphae Nymphae is being a little unfair in that regard.

Hey man I wasn't the one who said fat people deserve to die lol

 

[diffusionx]

Here's a study refuting your claim: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Where is the massive increase in numbers in New York City for example, guess they had no protests?

And I'm not talking about your measures from some few months ago, I'm talking about the recent response of local governors that saw numbers crawling up.


And what's your reasoing for Brazils failure, also BLM protests?

LOL I read that study, it's bullshit post-hoc justification. You can hire anyone to say anything you want, especially economists. The argument that AKSHULLY, it kept more people home, is pure sophistry.

New York City did not have massive increase in numbers because... wait for it... we have... herd immunity. Remember the virus got here first and moved through the entire population without any checks or lockdown. As recently as May we had 20%+ antibodies throughout the city, and now, in poorer neighborhoods, 70%.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Here's a study refuting your claim: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Where is the massive increase in numbers in New York City for example, guess they had no protests?

And I'm not talking about your measures from some few months ago, I'm talking about the recent response of local governors that saw numbers crawling up.


And what's your reasoning for Brazils failure, also BLM protests?

My hypothesis, if you can call it that, is that once it burns through enough of the population it stops spreading as easily. Maybe not herd immunity, but definitely enough people becoming immune to stop the rampant spread. New York got hit the hardest up front and now it likely won't rise significantly again. Meanwhile, places that didn't have a ton of cases before are finally seeing it spread as people gather more and more either through protests or simply because the weather is nice.

Also, in regards to that study, it was posted on June 18th and examines anonymized cell phone data from May 15, 2020 through June 13, 2020 as the basis for its findings. It was not until around week later that we really started seeing cases rise dramatically around the country (basically everywhere except the Northeast which had already been hit particularly hard).

It doesn't seem right to me to definitively say one way or the other in regards to the protests based on a single study that has not yet been peer reviewed and contains a rather limited data set that ends before we started seeing spikes in new cases. It also does not even cover two weeks out since the majority of the protesting happened. CHAZ wasn't established until June 8th, for example.

 

[hariseldon]

Hey man I wasn't the one who said fat people deserve to die lol

I may have been trolling a little, but my point is that people make choices and the consequences that come their way are a result of those choices, mixed with a little bit of luck. I apply that rule to everything from health to finances etc.

 

[Captain Smoker]

LOL I read that study, it's bullshit post-hoc justification. You can hire anyone to say anything you want, especially economists.

"I don't give a shit about this study" won't help your cause.

New York City did not have massive increase in numbers because... wait for it... we have... herd immunity. We have 20%+ antibodies throughout the city, and in poorer neighbors, 70%.

There are several cities linked in the example.


What about Brazil?

What about BLM protests in Vienna (50.000 people) or other European capitals?


Granted, your antibody claim is plausible for NYC but isn't applicable on every city around the globe which saw protests without a stark increase in numbers, unlike (for example) southern states (and California) in the US.


My intro post challenged the notion from the poster above that lockdowns are somehow a worse measure than going Sweden-model. Might've worked for Sweden (to some degree as they have a high death-count) because of several factors, isn't applicable on every country or region.

 

[hariseldon]

My hypothesis, if you can call it that, is that once it burns through enough of the population it stops spreading as easily. Maybe not herd immunity, but definitely enough people becoming immune to stop the rampant spread. New York got hit the hardest up front and now it likely won't rise significantly again. Meanwhile, places that didn't have a ton of cases before are finally seeing it spread as people gather more and more either through protests or simply because the weather is nice.

Closed populations on cruise ships got to a certain point and then just stopped - that should have been the clearest indicator that there is a hard cap to this virus.

 

[Nymphae]

I may have been trolling a little, but my point is that people make choices and the consequences that come their way are a result of those choices, mixed with a little bit of luck. I apply that rule to everything from health to finances etc.

I fail to see how I was being unfair, by his own admission he put on a ton of weight that he didn't have to. I too have been depressed and bed ridden from accidents and I didn't choose overeating. Not that I can't feel sympathy for a bad situation, but ultimately it was his choice to pack on pounds.

 

[hariseldon]

I fail to see how I was being unfair, by his own admission he put on a ton of weight that he didn't have to. I too have been depressed and bed ridden from accidents and I didn't choose overeating. Not that I can't feel sympathy for a bad situation, but ultimately it was his choice to pack on pounds.

And the rest of that post explains it. We can't expect perfection in people, but we can criticize their choices. I criticized the continued eating without matching exercise, but to an extent temper that with knowing that if the crash was really fucking bad (no idea if it was) then that messes with your head. If he was my mate, I'd have been there kicking his arse telling him to eat less and move more (just as I have with mates who needed to cut down their booze and get back to work etc) but I can understand that if your brain isn't working right it's a lot harder than if it is, and as I say we can all have spells where we fuck up. Most of us get a shot at redemption, enough time to fix it, and some do and some don't. And sometimes life hands you an additional turd sandwich that just really fucks you and it's hard to judge someone for that.

 

[Jooxed]

Well, status update for outbreak#2 in my building we are on positive case #2 he will die within 2-3 days. First case from round 2 doing really well. No underlying issues from the second case other than age. We will be doing a building wide point prevalence test again next week so I expect a bunch more cases to pop up.

The weird part is the case # 2 lives with his wife and she was positive during round 1 a couple months ago. He didn't get it after she cleared and now he has it.

 

[cryptoadam]

Washington state 7 day rolling average has tripled from June to today. 300 to 900 daily cases

Illinois doubled from 600 to 1200

Oregon was at 33 cases and now at 330, thats a 10 times increase.

Cali saw almost a 5 times increase in their 7 day rolling average. CA never actually really re opened fully and has had a mask mandate since June 18th.

FL/TX get all the attention, and both places had a lot of riots as well. But there have been increases in other places too with riots just they don't get attention.

You also have to take into account that the support of the protest, even health officials basically saying you should protest, along with politicians joining in (like Justin Trudeau), basically destroyed any sense of fighting the virus and stay home stay safe. It created a double standard that no one could abide by anymore.

But now even Trump is pulling back with canceling the convention, but you won't see ANTIFA and BLM terrorist stop or anyone call them out to stop.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Washington state 7 day rolling average has tripled from June to today. 300 to 900 daily cases

And yet, the daily death average has basically remained unchanged from mid-May.

Hospitalizations, too, have barely changed.

 

[cryptoadam]

And yet, the daily death average has basically remained unchanged from mid-May.

Hospitalizations, too, have barely changed.

Probably because its mainly younger riot aged people getting infected at riots. So they don't get it as bad.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Probably because its mainly younger riot aged people getting infected at riots. So they don't get it as bad.

Unfortunately, the thinking of our governor and officials is that we're about to become the next Florida and things are going to spin out of control so we need to be more stringent in our countermeasures! Most school districts have announced 100% distance learning at least at the start of the year. Going to completely screw a lot of kids, especially poorer young kids, out of an education.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Probably because its mainly younger riot aged people getting infected at riots. So they don't get it as bad.

And we, as a society, are mitigating the virus fairly well. It will spread because unless people cower at home, the virus will pass from person to person. But most places are able to keep it at a manageable level and get on with living. That's the Florida/Texas model. I'm fine with making small adjustments to mitigate the spread of the virus. I'll wear a mask when I think it makes sense (I'm a believer it makes a small difference), I'll wash my hands. But I also take my kids to a public (membership only) pool. I go to the gym and don't wear a mask to work out. There are little things we can do to keep things manageable while still living. I'm cool with that. There is a possibility I could get sick. There is also a possibility that if I get sick, I'll be that 1/10,000 person in their 30s with no cormorbidities that gets really sick. That's the chance you take when you decide to get out of bed in the morning.

 

[cryptoadam]

Unfortunately, the thinking of our governor and officials is that we're about to become the next Florida and things are going to spin out of control so we need to be more stringent in our countermeasures! Most school districts have announced 100% distance learning at least at the start of the year. Going to completely screw a lot of kids, especially poorer young kids, out of an education.

But is your governor doing anything to stop the riots or those are exempt?

 

[Deleted member 17706]

But is your governor doing anything to stop the riots or those are exempt?

He uses the word "Latinx," which should tell you all you need to know.

 

[DeepBreath87]

He uses the word "Latinx," which should tell you all you need to know.

What a fucking poser.

 

[ManaByte]

 

[ManaByte]

Sign a letter telling states to allow mass protests and riots, then:

As U.S. coronavirus cases surpass 4 million, more than 150 medical experts and others sign letter urging country to shut down

As the US hit a sobering 4 million cases of Covid-19 and the rising daily rate of confirmed cases and hospitalizations suggest the virus is far from under control, medical experts are urging politi…

ktla.com

 

[Deleted member 17706]

I get that it's a bad look coming from Fauci, but it's consistent with the recommendations, no? You only need to "mask up" outside when you're unable to stay six feet from people who aren't in your household (I'm assuming that those people are).