Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
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ricardo_sousa11
Member
Today the US will surpass italy in infected numbers, we will also reach half a million infected, it took less than 2 days to go up 100k.
By the end of this month 1k people will be dying daily in the US and we will have reached over 2M infected.
If the US doesnt quarantine heavily,by the end of April everyone will be infected.
UK number will go up exponentially this next week, tubes are still quite packed, airports are full, it should hit Italys numbers in 2 weeks.
Brazil wont matter, Bolsonaro wont be testing people so we wont know the numbers, but millions will certainly die
Global mortality rate is now 16% going up 1% every 2 days.
Good morning people!
By the end of this month 1k people will be dying daily in the US and we will have reached over 2M infected.
If the US doesnt quarantine heavily,by the end of April everyone will be infected.
UK number will go up exponentially this next week, tubes are still quite packed, airports are full, it should hit Italys numbers in 2 weeks.
Brazil wont matter, Bolsonaro wont be testing people so we wont know the numbers, but millions will certainly die
Global mortality rate is now 16% going up 1% every 2 days.
Good morning people!
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DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Needlessly alarmist. If you look at the daily numbers, USA has had the same (or higher) daily "new cases" as Italy for awhile now, yet our deaths are far lower.
Simple question: since testing is ramping up significantly, wouldn't that explain the new number of reported cases? We've known since the start that reported case number is wrong, so using reported cases to imply that far more people are getting infected than before is disingenuous.
betrayal
Banned
Sad story...and now? If only 0.1% of the people whose flu leads to severe courses and pneumonia would post on Facebook, the posts would be identical and everyone would think the flu is the Grim Reaper.
Such individual stories give insight into the severe course of the disease, but they say nothing about the general illness. There are now many well-known celebrities and athletes with the virus and most of them say they do not feel the virus or they only feel a slight cold.A few have a slight fever, dry throat and feel more exhausted...and that's it.
betrayal
Banned
In no particular order:
1. Global mortality rate is 4.5%
2. The more inhabitants a country has, the more cases it will usually have (USA 327 million vs. Italy 66 million).
3. Anyone can't be infected. Between 60 - 70% of the population is the general limit. Keyword "herd immunity".
4. Of course, the figures in the UK will still rise sharply before they fall. Nothing else is possible.
5. Good morning!
Liljagare
Member
Sadly we havent' seen the spikes that arrive when the hospitals get full, according to reports, this is just about to happen. :\
‘That’s when all hell broke loose’: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals | CNN
“We ended up getting our first positive patients – and that’s when all hell broke loose,” said one New York City doctor.
edition.cnn.com
"Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators," he said. "Ambulance sirens don't stop."
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ricardo_sousa11
Member
You need to take into consideration the population size of 327M vs 60, the healthcare isn't overloaded yet in the us, what we can look at is growth rate and death rate, and every single day the US breaks its own records.
Its not alarmism, its just numbers, more infected = more sick= healthcare overload= more dead, theres no way around that, and dont think America will be above that, this is what happened in every single country, its whats gonna happen in the US.
The US has a growth rate of 176%, which is far greater than ay other, and since most states arent in lockdown,the spread level is equally as high.
its simple math, go back one week and see how many were infected and dead, then in a week do the same, you'll see the numbers are very very scary
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Sadly we havent' seen the spikes that arrive when the hospitals get full, according to reports, this is just about to happen. :\
‘That’s when all hell broke loose’: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals | CNN
“We ended up getting our first positive patients – and that’s when all hell broke loose,” said one New York City doctor.
Let's be scientific about it instead of swallowing the media hysteria:
The reported number of cases is bottlenecked by the number of tests. The number of deaths is not since people would still be dying in droves from "pneumonia-like symptoms" whether they were tested or not.
We also know the ratio of confirmed cases versus tested cases is 1 in 10 to 1 in 20, depending on the region. So in places like the UK 9 people are clogging the hospital worried about coronavirus for every 1 person that actually has it.
We also know testing has yielded high false-positives among asymptomatic people and a not-zero number of false-negatives.
All of these facts imply that our rate of death is the only number that's somewhat accurate (hard to fake a dead body, Alex Jones conspiracies aside). I say "somewhat" because countries are also reporting deaths differently i.e. in Italy if a person has it they died of coronavirus even if they had other severe complications.
The fatality %, total number of infected, etc are all guesses.
Perhaps we shouldn't be Black Friday'ing our medical systems with people who don't have coronavirus. Trump was correct when he advised people to only get tested if they have severe symptoms. We are witnessing the consequences of ignoring that advice.
As
ricardo_sousa11
put it: It's simple math. if 9 out of 10 (at worst) people getting tested for coronavirus don't have it, then coronavirus isn't to blame for the extreme strain on our hospital systems, the hysteria is. I want to repeat that testing has increased sharply as well, so unless we have a way to test for antibodies we do not know if the increase in confirmed cases is due to an increase in testing or due to an exponential spread of the virus.I'm not advocating for flippancy or throwing caution to the wind, but getting caught up in doomsday scenarios is killing people, too. If saving lives is so important, we must consider all factors that are contributing to the loss of life during this situation.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
I'm his age and my frequent exercise is walking. Dammit shouldn't have read that as I'm going to convince myself I have it. Day 11 of lockdown. I have a stiffy nose rush sometimes runs.
Headache is tension from homeschooling the kids and worries
Sleepydays
Banned
ricardo_sousa11
Member
Global mortality rate =/= virus mortality
its irrelevant if you die because the virus killed you, or because you couldnt get medical assistance, you're still dead. Looking at the closed cases, which is what matters, and considering the GMR did start at 4% and is now 16%, we can see its rapidly increasing.
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Good for them , there are enough people that get really sick..
Yeah now everything is suspect ... but what I think and read is most had a fever at some point .. if you don't get that I think you are fine .. but that's a guess.
eot
Banned
The point is to rebut the still pervasive idea that healthy young and middle aged people can't eat shit from this disease.
betrayal
Banned
Cured cases take 4-6 weeks on average (two tests with a time interval must be negative). In most countries there is no obligation to keep cured cases as statistics. This creates a huge backlog of cured cases.
Fatal cases, on the other hand, usually last a few days or a few weeks. When someone dies, they immediately end up in the statistics.
Then there is the well-known topic of asymptomatic courses and untested cases. This number is estimated to be much higher (10-20x) than the number of confirmed cases. 99.99% of the unconfirmed cases fall into the statistics for cured cases.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
I bet if you type any thing into google. It will link back to covid 19 at the moment.
Birdo
Banned
The mortality rate means nothing when we don't even know how many people have it.
In the US most infected aren't even tested due to shortage of test kits and hospitals run out of equipments to protect themselves and also provide help to the patients.
When this goes on, the hospitals will be swamped and will be lacking supplies to help patients (covid19 and non vovid19 patients). Then. You will start seeing ppl dying in large numbers like flies. This shit is serious as hell and will be way worse.
betrayal
Banned
Well, unfortunately that was always the case with pneumonia. In the US more than one million adults have to be hospitalized every year because of pneumonia. While young healthy adults have less risk of pneumonia than the age extremes, it is always a threat. Older people have higher risk of getting pneumonia, and are more likely to die from it if they do.
Pneumonia is the reason why people have to be hospitalized for COVID-19.
Lukin1978
Member
I hear that from everyone I talk to "I'm young I have nothing to worry about even if I get coronavirus"
betrayal
Banned
That makes sense. 50% of the people on this planet are idiots who get their education through hip hop songs and CNN.
Let's be scientific about it instead of swallowing the media hysteria:
The reported number of cases is bottlenecked by the number of tests. The number of deaths is not since people would still be dying in droves from "pneumonia-like symptoms" whether they were tested or not.
We also know the ratio of confirmed cases versus tested cases is 1 in 10 to 1 in 20, depending on the region. So in places like the UK 9 people are clogging the hospital worried about coronavirus for every 1 person that actually has it.
We also know testing has yielded high false-positives among asymptomatic people and a not-zero number of false-negatives.
All of these facts imply that our rate of death is the only number that's somewhat accurate (hard to fake a dead body, Alex Jones conspiracies aside). I say "somewhat" because countries are also reporting deaths differently i.e. in Italy if a person has it they died of coronavirus even if they had other severe complications.
The fatality %, total number of infected, etc are all guesses.
Perhaps we shouldn't be Black Friday'ing our medical systems with people who don't have coronavirus. Trump was correct when he advised people to only get tested if they have severe symptoms. We are witnessing the consequences of ignoring that advice.
As
I'm not advocating for flippancy or throwing caution to the wind, but getting caught up in doomsday scenarios is killing people, too. If saving lives is so important, we must consider all factors that are contributing to the loss of life during this situation.
What get us here in the first place was people not getting tested early and still lots of ppl who likely have it aren't tested due to lack of testing kits. And now we have too many who are carrying it.
Trump can talk a bunch of shits but remember he told us this was a hoax, it would go away by itself, it would not infect more than a few people. There was no actual advice from that monkey ass.
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Thankfully this will not happen.
Also, there's nothing preventing people from remaining on lockdown. If people have concern for their own safety, remain in isolation.
I agree that most infected aren't even tested. But instead of leaving it at that, let's ask the next logical question: if a higher number of actual infected are floating around out there and this virus is as deadly as some are claiming, wouldn't we have a much higher spike in death?
Testing doesn't prevent people from dying from "pneumonia-like symptoms".
ricardo_sousa11
Member
Not yet but you will in the next week, right now the number is still low compared to population size, so its still under control, and if people take 4-6 weeks to recover, the death toll shouldnt be too high as of yet.
Testing prevents the virus from spreading, if the numbers keep getting higher, and most people show symptoms in 5-7 days, it means its spreading because todays numbers mean that those people most likely got infected a week ago and so on.
Cunth
Fingerlickin' Good!
Damn Germany ain't fucking around
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
Testing does not prevent the virus from spreading. The high false-positive rate and the asymptomatic dormancy period of ~6 days ensures that.
ricardo_sousa11
Member
Thats the true virus death rate yes, but it doesnt really matter because there are other factors in play. I cant speak for SK, but lets look at germany.
Germany is one of the richest countries in the world, the richest in Europe, it has one of the best if not the best health systems, and looking at a society stanpoint, they are very very obedient and practical, so the quarantine worked wonders with them and they have medical support, hence their mortality is incredibly low compared to other countries.
ricardo_sousa11
Member
Except that it does, not only extensive testing makes people more aware and take this more seriously, you can find the clusters and isolate them, getting the results quickly even in the asymptomatic phase. This needs to be paired with quarantine, obviously if people test and roam around it will do nothing.
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
This is predicated on the assumption that our testing is catching cases instead of merely sampling from a population where the virus is already widespread.
Early, doctors confirmed that ~80% of people are asymptomatic or only suffer mild symptoms and I have not seen any experts back down from this claim.
Nymphae
Banned
I posted this the other day but saw it again in my reading this morning and it really does bear repeating:
torontosun.com
Like what the fuck man, you donate our shit to the point of creating a shortage here when we needed it the most. I wonder if your average Canadian would have wanted those medical supplies to stay in the country or be shipped to China.
But oh look here comes the Chinese saviours!
Oh thank you so much for eventually sending us back a fraction of the masks we sent you to help you fight your disgusting bat soup chinese flu.
FUREY: Canada just gave 16 tonnes of medical supplies to China -- let’s hope they return the favour
The government of Canada’s buyandsell.gc.ca page is usually full of very targeted requests for specific products. Now they have what’s probably the most open-ended …
torontosun.com
Like what the fuck man, you donate our shit to the point of creating a shortage here when we needed it the most. I wonder if your average Canadian would have wanted those medical supplies to stay in the country or be shipped to China.
But oh look here comes the Chinese saviours!
Oh thank you so much for eventually sending us back a fraction of the masks we sent you to help you fight your disgusting bat soup chinese flu.
betrayal
Banned
I must correct myself. The number used by the Minister of Health Jens Spahn is wrong.
There have been 410,000 corona tests in Germany so far.
About 250,000 could be carried out per week at present - an increase to 360,000 tests per week would be possible, if necessary.
So this means that Germany is still far away from its capacities.
cryptoadam
Banned
Link please. And do you know how many test they did overall ?
ricardo_sousa11
Member
80% are mild symptoms, only 6.7% are assymptomatic, but theres another 6% that are inconclusive (people dont know if they had symptoms or not), 14% are severe and 5% critical.
This also depends on which countries you look at, in Italy its about 70% mild 30% serious/critical, but they do have a higher number of smokers, Spain as well.
"it wasn't at all clear— until after the fact, really— that I'd caught the Cornonavirus"
"I'm grateful I was able to stay isolated and get through it myself. But knowing what we know now about the potential severity."
Did you actually get tested?
RSB
Banned
El Pais (Lo Pais, as some people mockingly call it in Spain) is an exremely pro-socialist newpaper. I sure wouldn't trust them downright, especially when it comes to an article attacking private health care. It wouldn't be the first time they misrepresent (or outright lie) to attack private initiatives and/or praise the public sector.
Speaking of socialism and coronavirus, it's curious how the first vice-president of the (socialist) spanish government, who has contracted Covid-19, has chosen to be attended at a private hospital.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Hopes rise for home coronavirus antibody test
A home finger-prick test for the coronavirus will be offered to millions of people and delivered by Amazon if checks this week show that it works.Those who have been tested could be allowed back towww.thetimes.co.uk
Hopes rise for home coronavirus antibody test
3.5 million set to be ordered within weeks
Are they going to sell them?
If so, this shit should be for free and sent to everyone.
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
The high number of mild/asymptomatic implies that some people aren't going into the hospital for it at all, and the 9 out of 10 testing negative for coronavirus implies that a lot of people are going to the hospital when they shouldn't. I agree that each country is a different situation which is why the numbers are even more unreliable if we're looking at things from a zoomed-out view. A counterexample would be Japan which has a very high population of elderly and a high % of smokers per population.
The numbers you cited are only valid within the bubble of "confirmed cases". Since we know confirmed cases is only a slice of the total number of infected, it is largely irrelevant.
ricardo_sousa11
Member
Glad you're feeling better now and was able to get back on your feet!
You actually had the least probable symptoms, according to this graph.
eot
Banned
There are mixed messages going out
Christian Drosten liefert erste Erklärungen zu niedrigen Todeszahlen in Deutschland
Gemeinsam mit Forschungsministerin Karliczek hat sich Charité-Virologe Christian Drosten zur vergleichsweise geringen Sterberate an Corona in Deutschland geäußert - und ein neues Forschungsnetzwerk vorgestellt.
www.spiegel.de
TriSuit666
Banned
Phew - that article is only a month old, and already very out of date!
I speak with anecdotal evidence of several ICU's in my locality, so I'm pretty aware of their situation, and they are full - in fact so full, ventilator candidates are already being triaged into a secondary ICU which's based on a General ward.
I do think the term 'ventilator' has been muddied by the media (as per). A ventilator scales up from a hand pump, to the invasive ECMO systems which are essentially breathing for you. What I'm referring to is the more heavier end of that scale. There are also standard systems which may have a ventilator sub-component or be very easily converted to a makeshift ventilator.
The Lancet is a great great resource for other articles which do go into better depth than that one about the effectiveness of ventilator interventions / mortality rates - I would invite you to search a bit more for them.
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ricardo_sousa11
Member
Well we cant know how many are there if we dont test them. We can only look at the numbers we know, for the same reason we dont know how many people died of corona last flu season. Its not irrelevant, its the only numbers we can look at, because its the only information we have, we can only be sure looking back when all this is over.
Japan also has the lowest obesity rate and probably the best diet in the world, and people exercise regularely, hence the long longevity, they are not an example, just like
Germany or SK, because the variables are very very different than the average.
If we all had the same resources as Germany or SK, this wouldnt be an issue at all, but we're here because we dont have the same resources.
H
hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Nope - they'll be handed out free. Amazon is just providing logistics support.
Flintty
Member
Shits getting scary. Feels like we're heading towards a 'The Division' type nightmare scenario.
TheDreadLord
Member
This mortality rate is quite biased as it only considers people that are known to be infected. Actual numbers must be much lower considering that most people do not develop symptoms never get tested or seek help from a hospital.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Good shit!
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