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[Kazza]

I'm ready for a major China vs World trade war. (as in, ok to pay more if not manufactured in China, OK to buy less if I have to)

I doubt it would take place though. Not even 5% chance.

I'm not sure that Germany is though, it's economy is too export driven (especially to China). That said, China's new wolf diplomacy seems to be pissing off many in Germany too, so maybe they will think it's worth the hit to their bottom line:

Corona-Krise: BILD-Chef schreibt an Chinas Staatschef

Sehr geehrter Herr Präsident Xi Jinping, Ihre Botschaft in Berlin hat sich in einem offenen Brief an mich gewandt, weil wir in BILD...

www.bild.de

 

[Techies]

vitamin d deficiency and cytokines

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with inflammatory cytokine concentrations in patients with diabetic foot infection - PubMed

Vitamin D has been recognised as a potent immunomodulator and its deficiency is common in different population groups including patients with diabetic foot infection. Diabetic foot infection reflects the altered immune status of the host. As cytokine regulation plays a significant role in...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Thought on vitamin D?

 

[llien]

I'm not sure that Germany is though, it's economy is too export driven (especially to China).

70% of German export is EU.
But taking on China is not something a single country of size of Germany can do.

 

[CrapSandwich]

vitamin d deficiency and cytokines

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with inflammatory cytokine concentrations in patients with diabetic foot infection - PubMed

Vitamin D has been recognised as a potent immunomodulator and its deficiency is common in different population groups including patients with diabetic foot infection. Diabetic foot infection reflects the altered immune status of the host. As cytokine regulation plays a significant role in...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Thought on vitamin D?

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with a laundry list of health problems including various cancers, cognitive impairment, pain, mood disorders, fatigue, reduced immune function, and bone loss. It seems like D is one of the cornerstones of our evolution. We shed our hair in order to be able to soak up sunlight. In places with reduced sunlight, we even turned white in order to get more D. Or, if you look at the Inuit, they stayed dark despite being in a northern clime. Why? They were eating fatty fish 24/7 which just happens to be rich in vitamin D. I'd suggest that if our bodies and cultures evolved in this fashion, it would be wise for us to at least try to follow along.

 

[ManaByte]

This is a stupid post. There's no way to distinguish between an "everyday cough" and COVID19 without testing. Also, theres nothing in that about "suspected COVID". No hospital is ever going to admit someone with suspected COVID and not test them - the infection control risks are huge.

New York is doing it now with deaths. Anyone who dies is being labeled as a presumptive COVID death.

 

[Birdo]

Thought on vitamin D?

Probably the reason black people are so effected.

There is a reason people in the north evolved to have pale skin.

 

[llien]

Classy article by Cathy Young:

The pandemic recasts gender inequality - The Boston Globe

Calls for a feminist vision for the COVID-19 pandemic often boil down to ‘It’s worse for women.’ But is it?

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[All Hail C-Webb]

New York is doing it now with deaths. Anyone who dies is being labeled as a presumptive COVID death.

You're wrong, and you know that.

 

[eot]

 

[Liljagare]

vitamin d deficiency and cytokines

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with inflammatory cytokine concentrations in patients with diabetic foot infection - PubMed

Vitamin D has been recognised as a potent immunomodulator and its deficiency is common in different population groups including patients with diabetic foot infection. Diabetic foot infection reflects the altered immune status of the host. As cytokine regulation plays a significant role in...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Thought on vitamin D?

Always keep up levels during winter, otherwise I go completely depressed. Also helps with the cold.

Though, can't find link now, read earlier that it seems to help calm cytotoxic storms, that apparently alot of patients suffer from, the pneumonia often in critical patients end in a cytotoxic pnemunion. Would exlpain why it's so hard to recover from.

Vitamin D have proven uses in the immune system, helps regulate t-cells.

 

[ManaByte]

You're wrong, and you know that.

New York City revises coronavirus death toll to add 3,700 more deaths

New York City has made a devastating revision to its already massive coronavirus death toll.On Tuesday, the city's health department released a revised COVID-19 death count that included those who were not tested but were presumed to have died from the disease. That added an additional 3,700...

news.yahoo.com

The previous death count only included people who had tested positive for COVID-19, but New York City's health department had been recording presumptive cases, the Times reports.

 

[Porcile]

I went to my local supermarket today. Overcrowded and no attempt at any social distancing from the vast majority, and a lot of grannies and grandads coughing all over the place. I guess Japan is in store for a pretty deadly outbreak soon since there is no way the current behaviour is sustainable.

 

[All Hail C-Webb]

New York City revises coronavirus death toll to add 3,700 more deaths

New York City has made a devastating revision to its already massive coronavirus death toll.On Tuesday, the city's health department released a revised COVID-19 death count that included those who were not tested but were presumed to have died from the disease. That added an additional 3,700...

news.yahoo.com

Your statement was wrong, and the link you posted backs that up.

I'm sorry for assuming you knew better. I won't make that mistake again.

I went to my local supermarket today. Overcrowded and no attempt at any social distancing from the vast majority, and a lot of grannies and grandads coughing all over the place. I guess Japan is in store for a pretty deadly outbreak soon since there is no way the current behaviour is sustainable.

Damn, did not expect you to be talking about Japan. I thought they were taking it more seriously now.

 

[DeepEnigma]

The media starting to prepare people...



https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

I will suck my own dick if there is a vaccine for this thing available next year

There will be, it will just have the flu qualifier range of 1%- maaayyybe 30% chance it will work.

Too much money and opportunity in not having one.

 

[ManaByte]

Bad news for the mortality rate cheerleaders:

 

[llien]

Bad news for the mortality rate cheerleaders:

No cure for people preferring outlandish estimates to firm data at hand.

 

[darkestdame]

Can't expect Floridians are happy with leadership right now

 

[Captain Zyrain]

NY update:



Trending in the right direction at least.

 

[Techies]

Always keep up levels during winter, otherwise I go completely depressed. Also helps with the cold.

Though, can't find link now, read earlier that it seems to help calm cytotoxic storms, that apparently alot of patients suffer from, the pneumonia often in critical patients end in a cytotoxic pnemunion. Would exlpain why it's so hard to recover from.

Vitamin D have proven uses in the immune system, helps regulate t-cells.

I think regulate is the key word here, I think it's something worth taking note of, because all the countries hardest hit was in winter and have populations with known Vitamin D deficiencies. Also since there is no easy to come by treatment people are overdosing on Vitamin C instead of aiming for a balance.

I think if people just live "healthier"m are able to monitor themselves easier it could possible to reduce hospital admissions drastically.

I don't think I'll have to face the virus soon, but I'd like to not end up in the ventilator or take up a bed.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Ecuador update:

Coronavirus: Ecuador sees massive surge in deaths in April

Guayas province, home to the city of Guayaquil, sees nearly 6,000 extra deaths in a two-week period.

www.bbc.com

Ecuador's official coronavirus death toll is 403, but new figures from one province suggest thousands have died.

The government said 6,700 people died in Guayas province in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.

Footage obtained by the BBC showed residents forced to store bodies in their homes for up to five days.

They said authorities had been unable to keep up with the huge rise in deaths, leaving corpses wrapped in sheets in family homes and even in the streets.

Authorities last week began distributing thousands of cardboard coffins in Guayaquil. A dedicated helpline was also set up for families that needed a corpse removed from their home.

According to the government's figures, 14,561 people have died in Guayas province since the beginning of March from all causes. The province normally sees 2,000 deaths a month on average.

Ecuador as a whole has had 8,225 confirmed cases of coronavirus to date, according to Johns Hopkins University, though a lack of widespread testing means this is likely a significant undercount.

Yeesh.

 

[cryptoadam]

NY update:



Trending in the right direction at least.

Thanks Cuomo, its going to take a long time to get NY out of the mess you and DeBlasio put it in. Maybe ya'll shouldn't of been having China town parades, telling people to go to movies or take the subway.

Probably to busy helping your bro scream at bikers and crying for ventilators. Somehow Cuomo will come out smelling like roses even though his STATE will be the most infected place and with the highest death toll in the world (well at least official numbers, WUHAN stays laughing).

 

[cryptoadam]

Anti body tests, Lets GO

Roche - Doing now what patients need next

www.roche.com

 

[eot]

Bad news for the mortality rate cheerleaders:

Who's cheering for the mortality rate to be high?

Anyway, I just want to point out the distinction between the case fatality rate (often quoted as 1-3%) and the infection fatality rate. The former is the fraction of deaths in confirmed cases, and the latter is the fraction of deaths among all infected. When comparing the mortality rate with the flu people have been comparing the case fatality rate, and it's also true for influenza that there is a large amount of undiagnosed cases. Point is, if the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 turns out to be 0.1-0.2% that doesn't mean it's no worse than the flu.

Hopefully they do more of these studies in harder hit areas, like NYC to get an idea of how things look there.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

LA County update (from yesterday):

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Another interesting case study... yet ANOTHER ship outbreak:



940 positive cases
500 had symptoms, so by my excellent powers of deductions, 440 did not have symptoms.

I don't know if it's too early to tell if they may yet develop symptoms or they are truly asymptomatic. Are they capable of spread?

IF we assume YES they're asymptomatic, and YES they're spreading, then this experiment has 46% of cases visually undetectable. It's not the 80%+ that some places have talked about, though there is still some testing to be done.

If we use this model, then we should roughly double the total number of cases to get a better idea of the spread? I dunno.

 

[The Incarnation]

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with a laundry list of health problems including various cancers, cognitive impairment, pain, mood disorders, fatigue, reduced immune function, and bone loss. It seems like D is one of the cornerstones of our evolution. We shed our hair in order to be able to soak up sunlight. In places with reduced sunlight, we even turned white in order to get more D. Or, if you look at the Inuit, they stayed dark despite being in a northern clime. Why? They were eating fatty fish 24/7 which just happens to be rich in vitamin D. I'd suggest that if our bodies and cultures evolved in this fashion, it would be wise for us to at least try to follow along.

Also the darker you are the harder it is to absorb Vitamin D from sunlight. Which makes it easier to catch chest infections. Happened to me last year when I had Tuberculosis, doctor gave me a super strong dose of Vitamin D along with antibiotics for 7 months and said if I had taken it to begin with I probably wouldn't have caught it. 2 years prior to that I had two litres of fluid drained from my lung caused by a chest infection. Chances are it's why African Americans, and Hispanics also have a higher rate of death from Covid 19 in New York, and a similar thing in the UK with Africans and South East Asians, in short they're basically more prone to vitamin D deficiency, because they're not in their natural climates. A similar thing is happening with Somalians in Sweden also.

Also care homes where old people tend to be indoors a lot have this issues also, which is why the NHS website itself suggests that people in them take Vitamin D supplements.

 

[Fun Fanboy]

LA County update (from yesterday):

Out of curiosity... I wonder how many people die a day in LA with the regular flu.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Out of curiosity... I wonder how many people die a day in LA with the regular flu.

The only deaths that matter anymore are Coronavirus deaths.

 

[All Hail C-Webb]

Another interesting case study... yet ANOTHER ship outbreak:



940 positive cases
500 had symptoms, so by my excellent powers of deductions, 440 did not have symptoms.

I don't know if it's too early to tell if they may yet develop symptoms or they are truly asymptomatic. Are they capable of spread?

IF we assume YES they're asymptomatic, and YES they're spreading, then this experiment has 46% of cases visually undetectable. It's not the 80%+ that some places have talked about, though there is still some testing to be done.

If we use this model, then we should roughly double the total number of cases to get a better idea of the spread? I dunno.

Interesting data.
I think we have to assume that some of the asymptomatic are just early, and will develop symptoms later. How many? Who knows (well not that WHO, they know nothing).
At the same time, doubling would probably be on the low end. They've been able to test a huge portion of their population. No cities are testing anywhere near that.
Also, you've got to assume that an aircraft carrier is going to have better health and lower ages than the general population, increasing the chances they're asymptomatic.

Basically, it's all just guessing at this point, and it'll vary greatly by region.

My guess is that NYC has already seen 1 million cases, and it's hopefully closer to 2 million.

 

[synchronicity]

vitamin d deficiency and cytokines

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with inflammatory cytokine concentrations in patients with diabetic foot infection - PubMed

Vitamin D has been recognised as a potent immunomodulator and its deficiency is common in different population groups including patients with diabetic foot infection. Diabetic foot infection reflects the altered immune status of the host. As cytokine regulation plays a significant role in...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Thought on vitamin D?

My nephrologist (I have PKD) once told me that everyone he has ever encountered is vitamin D deficient, and most are seriously so. (He mentioned it because I wasn't, surprisingly. I spend plenty of time outdoors, I guess.)

Anyway, vitamin D deficiency is problematic across the spectrum of health. And supplementation is a poor band-aid on the problem. We just haven't evolved to the point that we should be staying indoors (and living as sedentary) as much as we do, and it is devastating to human health.

 

[diffusionx]

Who's cheering for the mortality rate to be high?

Anyway, I just want to point out the distinction between the case fatality rate (often quoted as 1-3%) and the infection fatality rate. The former is the fraction of deaths in confirmed cases, and the latter is the fraction of deaths among all infected. When comparing the mortality rate with the flu people have been comparing the case fatality rate, and it's also true for influenza that there is a large amount of undiagnosed cases. Point is, if the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 turns out to be 0.1-0.2% that doesn't mean it's no worse than the flu.

Hopefully they do more of these studies in harder hit areas, like NYC to get an idea of how things look there.

My guess is NYC has 2-3 million, and NJ has 5-10x more than the official number. You'll note most NJ cases are in NYC bedroom communities where people take PT every day, those areas probably have the same percentage of inflected as NYC overall.

So let's be clear here. In the end when the final story is this thing infects people the same way the flu does, it has the same symptoms the flu does, it kills the same risk group the flu does at the same rate the flu does, are we still going to be pretending that it's worse than the flu?

 

[HarryKS]

That Gilead

My guess is NYC has 2-3 million, and NJ has 5-10x more than the official number. You'll note most NJ cases are in NYC bedroom communities where people take PT every day, those areas probably have the same percentage of inflected as NYC overall.

So let's be clear here. In the end when the final story is this thing infects people the same way the flu does, it has the same symptoms the flu does, it kills the same risk group the flu does at the same rate the flu does, are we still going to be pretending that it's worse than the flu?

Does this look like it's no worse than the flu to you?

 

[darkestdame]

Does this look like it's no worse than the flu to you?

Shh, no scientific facts on infection & mortality rates here. Only surface level symptoms. OPEN IT UP

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Shh, no scientific facts on infection & mortality rates here. Only surface level symptoms. OPEN IT UP

Oh, you have accurate information about the infection rate? Please share your scientific facts with the group.

 

[Setzer]

My guess is NYC has 2-3 million, and NJ has 5-10x more than the official number. You'll note most NJ cases are in NYC bedroom communities where people take PT every day, those areas probably have the same percentage of inflected as NYC overall.

So let's be clear here. In the end when the final story is this thing infects people the same way the flu does, it has the same symptoms the flu does, it kills the same risk group the flu does at the same rate the flu does, are we still going to be pretending that it's worse than the flu?

I agree with you on #'s. This thing is highly contagious and there are easily 3-5x more people infected with this virus than confirmed case #'s. But I do think this virus is more aggressive than the common flu in how rapidly it can get into the lungs and develop into full blown ARDS. I think the mortality rate will still end up being higher than the flu, probably around .5%.

 

[Insane Metal]

Exclusive | Virus outbreak may have started in September, say British scientists

Study narrows origin to period between September and December – more likely in southern China than Wuhan – after virus mutated to a form harmful to humans.

t.co

 

[diffusionx]

That Gilead


Does this look like it's no worse than the flu to you?

Yes. Remember we have no actual clue what the mortality rate is. The "10x deadlier than flu" thing was based on total garbage numbers, especially if 10x more people got it than originally thought, which is what researchers are starting to think. If this thing was moving through NYC in February (which is a near certainty) then obviously it's not quite the menace people claimed it was, since NYC functioned that month.

This virus is soooo deadly that up to half of people who got it have no symptoms whatsoever. Black Plague this is not.

 

[LemmingWithaParachute]

Japan PM offers masks, gets social media roasting

TOKYO: A pledge by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to send two reusable cloth face masks to every household as the country battles the coronavirus outbreak has been met online with derision and humour.

www.dailyexpress.com.my

Critics doubt Abe's face mask giveaway will solve shortages : The Asahi Shimbun

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Out of curiosity... I wonder how many people die a day in LA with the regular flu.

From last year

"During the 2018-19 flu season, there were 125 flu-related deaths in the County. "

LA County reports first flu death of the season

Los Angeles County health officials confirmed Monday the county's first flu-related death of the 2019-20 flu season.

abc7.com

So 125 in a whole flu season vs 55 in one day.

"In the 2017-2018 flu season, Los Angeles County reported 278 flu deaths, which is higher than any flu season deaths since they began to be reported in 2010."

First Death Of 2018-2019 Flu Season Confirmed By Los Angeles Authorities

The first flu death of the 2018-2019 flu season has been reported in Los Angeles. The person who died was an elderly resident with health conditions.

www.techtimes.com

2017-2018 was a worse year than last year, and still is almost half as many (for a whole season) as we're at with Coronavirus so far.

 

[Fun Fanboy]

From last year

"During the 2018-19 flu season, there were 125 flu-related deaths in the County. "

LA County reports first flu death of the season

Los Angeles County health officials confirmed Monday the county's first flu-related death of the 2019-20 flu season.

abc7.com

So 125 in a whole flu season vs 55 in one day.

"In the 2017-2018 flu season, Los Angeles County reported 278 flu deaths, which is higher than any flu season deaths since they began to be reported in 2010."

First Death Of 2018-2019 Flu Season Confirmed By Los Angeles Authorities

The first flu death of the 2018-2019 flu season has been reported in Los Angeles. The person who died was an elderly resident with health conditions.

www.techtimes.com

2017-2018 was a worse year than last year, and still is almost half as many (for a whole season) as we're at with Coronavirus so far.

Ohhh... so not that many die from the flu a day at all. ha ha. Sounds good to me! I thought it was more than that by a lot.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Exclusive | Virus outbreak may have started in September, say British scientists

Study narrows origin to period between September and December – more likely in southern China than Wuhan – after virus mutated to a form harmful to humans.

t.co

That's a pretty damned long window period.

 

[infinitys_7th]

Some asshole congressional candidate in my area is driving around in a campaign van and going door-to-door, and people are answering him. Does no one have common sense?

I'm thinking of calling the cops on him.

 

[Jtibh]

 

[Jonsoncao]

New York City revises coronavirus death toll to add 3,700 more deaths

New York City has made a devastating revision to its already massive coronavirus death toll.On Tuesday, the city's health department released a revised COVID-19 death count that included those who were not tested but were presumed to have died from the disease. That added an additional 3,700...

news.yahoo.com

New York is doing it now with deaths. Anyone who dies is being labeled as a presumptive COVID death.

LOL this is next level cringey material. Please read the news you quoted (as well as Johns Hopkins COVID-19 hub on explaining why Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Ohio started reported presumptive cases). Spread outright misinformation like CNN.

 

[Joe T.]

Exclusive | Virus outbreak may have started in September, say British scientists

Study narrows origin to period between September and December – more likely in southern China than Wuhan – after virus mutated to a form harmful to humans.

t.co

That article is slyly trying to deflect away from the lab theory. Their estimated time range doesn't really change anything because the earliest reported case dates back to November 17th (Live Science/South Morning China Post), well within their time frame. They know people will be attracted to the extremes, in this case September and the already dismissed December.

This line stood out to me because it pokes a giant hole in their credibility:

The lab-origin theory has long been dismissed by the world's top life scientists, because all existing scientific evidence pointed to a natural origin.

Dismissed how? "All existing evidence" is another way of saying "we have no evidence it came from the lab" which is true, we probably won't unless China becomes more cooperative and transparent - highly unlikely.

The Epoch Times documentary, linked here by others already, spoke to that animal to human transmission theory when they highlighted the 100% similarity in e-proteins before/after jumping from animal to human, which they said is highly unlikely. Has anyone been able to shoot down what they put forward in that video yet? They went into some very specific details about the makeup of the virus like the HIV connection and why it's so contagious. Most of it happens between the 10-30 min mark:

 

[rykomatsu]

LOL this is next level cringey material. Please read the news you quoted (as well as Johns Hopkins COVID-19 hub on explaining why Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Ohio started reported presumptive cases). Spread outright misinformation like CNN.

The formal definition of presumptive positive is that a test detected SARS-CoV2, but it was not via a CDC approved test kit, so the CDC needs to verify, no? (I don't know what JHU hub article you're referring to - their site looks like more or less a wall of text...) If that's the case, then reporting isn't necessarily a bad thing. If someone died of a car accident that had SARS-CoV2, then reporting cause of death as COVID-19, this is outright wrong.

 

[gunslikewhoa]

 

[Airbus Jr]

China death numbers are rising again today

Second wave attack incoming?

 

[eot]

So let's be clear here. In the end when the final story is this thing infects people the same way the flu does, it has the same symptoms the flu does, it kills the same risk group the flu does at the same rate the flu does, are we still going to be pretending that it's worse than the flu?

New York is close to having had 0.1% of its population die. Unless literally every person in New York state has been infected, then this is already worse than the flu.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

China death numbers are rising again today

Second wave attack incoming?

They revised their original numbers overnight, so I believe it's just that. It should go back to normal tomorrow.