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[starship]

Week after christmas everything slows regardless of supply.

Who the hell said this total bullshit?

15.12. - 21.12.03
PlayStation2 160.100
Game Boy Advance SP 132.400
Gamecube 95.100
Game Boy Advance 23.000

22.12. - 28.12.03
PlayStation2 189.600
Game Boy Advance SP 168.000
Gamecube 154.500
Game Boy Advance 28.800

29.12.03 - 04.01.04
PlayStation2 244.800
Game Boy Advance SP 242.800
Gamecube 164.500
Game Boy Advance 33.700

 

[hiryu]

Week after christmas everything slows regardless of supply.

Not in Japan. The winter holiday in Japan continues through January with I think the first week of January usually being one of the biggest.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Who the hell said this total bullshit?

15.12. - 21.12.03
PlayStation2 160.100
Game Boy Advance SP 132.400
Gamecube 95.100
Game Boy Advance 23.000

22.12. - 28.12.03
PlayStation2 189.600
Game Boy Advance SP 168.000
Gamecube 154.500
Game Boy Advance 28.800

29.12.03 - 04.01.04
PlayStation2 244.800
Game Boy Advance SP 242.800
Gamecube 164.500
Game Boy Advance 33.700

That's why it is strange. The last week of the year is very often the best one. Why did this week be different ? Shortages are not the only answer here.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Ooooooh. And with the low last week, Nintendo's total hardware sales for the year come to 9,724,554, missing the 10 million goal which seemed within reach. Better luck next year.

Final 2006 year-to-date year-over-year percentages.

GCN: -72.2%
Wii: N/A
GBA: -86.4%
GBASP: -68.0%
GBM:-65.3%
DS: -77.5%
DSL: N/A
PS2: -26.9%
PS3: N/A
PSP: -16.0%
Xbox: -85.3%
X360: +175.1%

GBA total: -67.4%
DS total: +101.4%

Nintendo portable total: +32.8%
Nintendo console total: +264.4%
Sony console total: -3.6%

Nintendo total: +74.9%
Sony total: -10.1%
Microsoft total: +137.2%

Consoles total: +32.9%
Portables total: +41.3%

Total total: +39.3%

next MC numbers will reveal a lot... if PS3 reaches anything between 90k and 100k the next week

You know, PS3 is down from last week, too.

Week after christmas everything slows regardless of supply.

Who the hell said this total bullshit?

That's why it is strange. The last week of the year is very often the best one. Why did this week be different ? Shortages are not the only answer here.

There are no perfect generalizations for this; it's changing. As we can see, starship had to go back to numbers from 3 years ago to find a year with a later peak. For whatever reason, it's been moving earlier for the last several years.

 

[soundwave05]

That's why it is strange. The last week of the year is very often the best one. Why did this week be different ? Shortages are not the only answer here.

Errr ... why wouldn't that be an answer? Consumers can't manufacuter and sell a product to themselves.

Nintendo aimed to ship about 1 million to Japan in 2006, and they basically did that. They also have supply for North America and Europe to worry about. The DS has basically been supply restricted for the entire year, we've seen some weeks were it goes down basically for no reason, that's simply because Nintendo is exhausting their inventories completely and needs time to rebuild their stockpile.

As for the PS3 from what I understand, Sony is still selling most of what they ship, but we know at some point that price is going to become a factor if it hasn't already.

 

[kisakiproject]

There are no perfect generalizations for this; it's changing. As we can see, starship had to go back to numbers from 3 years ago to find a year with a later peak. For whatever reason, it's been moving earlier for the last several years.

Yeah the Japanese market has been making very rapid shifts. Its by far the most unpredictable market at this point. Given that the DS explosion was almost instant and completly beyond anyones expectations.

DS LTD is 14m. Is GBA's 15 m? If nintendo lets this system last a decade like GB did it will probably become the best selling system ever. Atleast in japan.

 

[soundwave05]

Yeah the Japanese market has been making very rapid shifts. Its by far the most unpredictable market at this point. Given that the DS explosion was almost instant and completly beyond anyones expectations.

DS LTD is 14m. Is GBA's 15 m? If nintendo lets this system last a decade like GB did it will probably become the best selling system ever. Atleast in japan.

I think it was pretty much already a given that the DS is destined to the be the no.1 selling system in Japan (ever) by late 2005 when it had that 600k week in December. By now, it's a forgone conclusion.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Errr ... why wouldn't that be an answer? Consumers can't manufacuter and sell a product to themselves.

Nintendo aimed to ship about 1 million to Japan in 2006, and they basically did that. They also have supply for North America and Europe to worry about. The DS has basically been supply restricted for the entire year, we've seen some weeks were it goes down basically for no reason, that's simply because Nintendo is exhausting their inventories completely.

I didn't say that shortages are not a possible answer; I said that shortages are not the only answer. That's because the slowing down is general. The PSP is not out of stock. The same for the PS2.

 

[soundwave05]

I didn't say that shortages are not a possible answer; I said that shortages are not the only answer. That's because the slowing down is general. The PSP is not out of stock. The same for the PS2.

The PS2 is almost 7 years old though, I think they've hit a saturation point with that platform. The PSP has underperformed all year, so I'm not sure if those are the best indicators.

Besides, Japan really is not a market where people just buy something else if they can't get what they want. They'll wait and come back the next week to get what they want.

Remember all the people that freaked out over FFIII (DS) second week sales? The game still went on to sell a lot over the long haul. If people can't get what they want, they just wait and buy it whenever the next shipment comes.

 

[kisakiproject]

ThRemember all the people that freaked out over FFIII (DS) second week sales? The game still went on to sell a lot over the long haul. If people can't get what they want, they just wait and buy it whenever the next shipment comes.

Thats very very true.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Remember all the people that freaked out over FFIII (DS) second week sales? The game still went on to sell a lot over the long haul. If people can't get what they want, they just wait and buy it whenever the next shipment comes.

So if Legend of Dragoon had launched the same day as FF8, it would have sold as well as it did? No game ever gets screwed over by launching the same day as another major game? After all, if people want the game now, they'll still want it a week or two later when they can afford to buy another game.

That's unreal, given that in books, movies, music, and literally every other entertainment medium release schedules and shipment amounts are controlled very tightly specifically because not taking advantage of the front-loading of sales ends up costing you money and units sold.

FF3 did lose sales by lack of supply; many people went on to buy other DS games instead of waiting, or other video games, or something other than video games altogether.

 

[soundwave05]

So if Legend of Dragoon had launched the same day as FF8, it would have sold as well as it did? No game ever gets screwed over by launching the same day as another major game? After all, if people want the game now, they'll still want it a week or two later when they can afford to buy another game.

That's unreal, given that in books, movies, music, and literally every other entertainment medium release schedules and shipment amounts are controlled very tightly specifically because not taking advantage of the front-loading of sales ends up costing you money and units sold.

FF3 did lose sales by lack of supply; many people went on to buy other DS games instead of waiting, or other video games, or something other than video games altogether.

FF3 is also going to cross the 1 million mark, so it more than doubled it's first week sales ... which for a FF game is indicates very impressive legs.

For big-time brands like the DS, Wii, or Final Fantasy ... yes, Japanese gamers simply keep coming back until they get what they want. There may be a little spillover, but not much.

The most important thing first and foremost is making a product obviously that people actually want en masse. Shortages always sort themselves out over the long run.

 

[Jammy]

This was a slow week in terms of hardware because of the low (it's funny how we can call these low now) sales of Nintendo's DS and Wii.

As said before, the Japanese industry is now one with Nintendo. Nintendo gave the Japanese gaming industry the spark it needed a couple of years ago, and now when Nintendo does less than expected, Japanese numbers also seem worse.

But don't make a mistake like jimbo has done. There's only shortages for Wii now, not PS3. And one look at the software sales shows that there's going to be no "red flag" being waved. Had PS3 software sales come even close to half as high as Wii software sales, then maybe there would be a point.

 

[Stumpokapow]

FF3 is also going to cross the 1 million mark, so it more than doubled it's first week sales ... which for a FF game is indicates very impressive legs.

Right, but my point was that FF3 would have sold any units it has since sold anyway, and would have sold more during the critical product launch period if there were more available.

The most important thing first and foremost is making a product obviously that people actually want en masse. Shortages always sort themselves out over the long run.

Obviously a crappy worthless game will always be a crappy worthless game, but you seriously underestimate the damage that can be done by poor scheduling. Launching a huge "summer" movie in the winter will result in lost money. Launching two epic movies at the same time will result in sales loss. Launching a medium-level RPG the same day as DQ in Japan will result in sales failure.

In the last year, Poseidon (the film) is an excellent example of one product being undermined by others; it launched a week or two after Mission: Impossible 3, and flopped almost uniformly as a result.

There's also marketing loss; unexpected shortages cause wasted marketing dollars as TV spots and banners continue to display but the product is unavailable. Even if FF3 had no competition, some of the prime advertising for the game was useless because those who would be swayed by the advertising enough to buy the product, but not enough to trample others to find it, were unable to. Especially given the low budget of DS games, marketing budget is a fairly large expense and not using it will is costly.

 

[soundwave05]

That's a whole other can of worms, but I don't think Poseideon would've done well at any time this year (though I hear the movie is not so bad). Too many people, especailly the younger demographic (who don't know about the original) thought it was some Titanic rip off.

Mission: Impossible 3 was sunk by the Tom Cruise PR disaster train.

The DS has been supply limited for weeks at a time. Yet people still keep coming back for more and more.

 

[zankara]

This was a slow week in terms of hardware because of the low (it's funny how we can call these low now) sales of Nintendo's DS and Wii.

As said before, the Japanese industry is now one with Nintendo. Nintendo gave the Japanese gaming industry the spark it needed a couple of years ago, and now when Nintendo does less than expected, Japanese numbers also seem worse.

But don't make a mistake like jimbo has done. There's only shortages for Wii now, not PS3. And one look at the software sales shows that there's going to be no "red flag" being waved. Had PS3 software sales come even close to half as high as Wii software sales, then maybe there would be a point.

Isn't there still PS3 shortages in Japan?

 

[Stumpokapow]

The DS has been supply limited for weeks at a time. Yet people still keep coming back for more and more.

If I go out and try to buy FF3 and it is not there, I can buy any number of other games that also interest me and this will likely result in a lost sale of FF3 unless I buy a lot of games or nothing else that interests me is left.

If I go out and try to buy a DS and it is not there, ___. (finish the sentence)

 

[NomarTyme]

That's a whole other can of worms, but I don't think Poseideon would've done well at any time this year (though I hear the movie is not so bad). Too many people, especailly the younger demographic (who don't know about the original) thought it was some Titanic rip off.

Mission: Impossible 3 was sunk by the Tom Cruise PR disaster train.

The DS has been supply limited for weeks at a time. Yet people still keep coming back for more and more.

The movie made close to 400 million world wide.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Isn't there still PS3 shortages in Japan?

Anecdotal reports and a report from IGN and Famistu(? Correct me if i'm wrong, but it's some Japanese outlet) are reporting that PS3s are available, but Wii's are scarce.

 

[soundwave05]

The movie made close to 400 million world wide.

Domestically though. Worldwide Tom Cruise is still a huge star and most of the foreign market is a lot more forgiving for PR gaffes (hello, Michael Jackson).

I think even the head of Paramount got into a nasty spat with Cruise blaming his PR antics for M:I III's under performance at the box office.

 

[Dante]

Nice PS3 numbers, can't wait to see if Virtua Fighter still carries some weight in Japan.

 

[cvxfreak]

DSL 176,219
Wii 96,332
PS3 71,727
PSP 68,675
PS2 38,169
Xbox360 16,909
GBM 2,082
GBASP 1,743
GC 847
DS 102
GBA 51
Xbox 4

 

[DefectiveReject]

Wii goes up in the next chart, we know already from Nintendo's press release so this weeks numbers are obviously supply restricted

 

[Frankfurter]

DSL 176,219
Wii 96,332
PS3 71,727
PSP 68,675
PS2 38,169
Xbox360 16,909
GBM 2,082
GBASP 1,743
GC 847
DS 102
GBA 51
Xbox 4

You are a ... bit too late

 

[BuzzJive]

I posted this in the Nintendo Increased Forecast thread. Some pre-damage control, if you will...

If Nintendo doesn't increase the shipment allotment before the end of the fiscal year i wonder how they'll split the shipments?

Maybe 1 million to the US, 500k to Japan and Europe. That's ~300,000 per month in the US and ~40,000 per week in Japan.

Don't be surprised if Wii numbers are well below the PS3s in the coming weeks, unless Nintendo comes out and says otherwise.

This is a good point that I think most people will overlook. Nintendo shipped their 4 million by the end of 2006. They plan to ship only 2 million more worldwide over the next 3 months. Expecting the Wii to even hit 100k a week in Japan for the next 13 to 14 weeks would be incredibly unrealistic given the forecast. Even if they distribute them evenly across all three regions, Japan will get less than 50k a week.

 

[argon]

This is a good point that I think most people will overlook. Nintendo shipped their 4 million by the end of 2006. They plan to ship only 2 million more worldwide over the next 3 months. Expecting the Wii to even hit 100k a week in Japan for the next 13 to 14 weeks would be incredibly unrealistic given the forecast. Even if they distribute them evenly across all three regions, Japan will get less than 50k a week.

Or they might ship more and beat their initial estimates.

 

[soundwave05]

This is a good point that I think most people will overlook. Nintendo shipped their 4 million by the end of 2006. They plan to ship only 2 million more worldwide over the next 3 months. Expecting the Wii to even hit 100k a week in Japan for the next 13 to 14 weeks would be incredibly unrealistic given the forecast. Even if they distribute them evenly across all three regions, Japan will get less than 50k a week.

Depends on what the demand is like also. If Japan needs more systems, they probably will get them as Wii production strains should ease up as Jan/Feb move along.

100k a week for the months of Jan/Feb is a bit overkill though.

 

[Souldriver]

Depends on what the demand is like also. If Japan needs more systems, they probably will get them as Wii production strains should ease up as Jan/Feb move along.

100k a week for the months of Jan/Feb is a bit overkill though.

At this point every region needs the Wii desperately!

 

[soundwave05]

At this point every region needs the Wii desperately!

Now that they've figured out the strap issues, perhaps production can start to ramp up. It would be a nice feather in Iwata's cap if he shows up to Nintendo's investors meeting in March and touts 7 million Wiis shipped, above the forcast of 6 million.

I think Nintendo wants to be a little cautious before publically upping sales estimates though, because Jan/Feb/March can be a dry period. If they say 7 million now for instance, but don't get there by March, that would be an ugly PR debacle. If they stick to 6 million, but exceed it, then it's a big win for Nintendo. Remember the GameCube failed to hit the 4 million target that Nintendo set for it by the end of March 2002 (just shy of about 200k).

 

[Neo Child]

Is the PS3 out in Japan yet?

 

[soundwave05]

Is the PS3 out in Japan yet?

:lol You probably wouldn't be able to guess from the software chart.

 

[Grampasso]

To give to Cesar what belongs to Cesar Date a Cesare ciò che è di Cesare.

QFT... are you italian or what? :lol

 

[enishi]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10023187316.html

Hardware
NDS ~300k (large shipment last week)
Wii ~150k (still shortage)
PS3 ~60k (supply > demand)

Software
NDS
------------------------------
Brain Training 2 ~100k
General Knowledge Training ~100k (LTD > 1m)
Dragon Quest Monster Joker ~300k (LTD ~900k)
Kirby, Love and Berry DS (LTD ~800k)
Pokemon (LTD > 4.5m)
NSMB (LTD > 4m next week)
Jump Ultimate Stars (LTD > 600k, higher than last game)
Mario Kart DS (LTD ~1.9m)
English Training (LTD ~1.6m)

Wii
-------------------------------
Wii Sports ~150k (LTD ~700k)
Wii Play ~120k (LTD ~600k)
Wario (LTD ~250k)
Pokemon (LTD ~150k)
Dragon Ball Z Sparking Neo ~40k

PS3
--------------------------------
RR7, Gundam (LTD ~100k)

 

[Mr. Pointy]

When will the MC numbers be released?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wii goes up in the next chart, we know already from Nintendo's press release so this weeks numbers are obviously supply restricted

Which press release are you talking about?

 

[cvxfreak]

You are a ... bit too late

Whoops, sorry.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10023187316.html

Hardware
NDS ~300k (large shipment last week)
Wii ~150k (still shortage)
PS3 ~60k (supply > demand)

Software
NDS
------------------------------
Brain Training 2 ~100k
General Knowledge Training ~100k (LTD > 1m)
Dragon Quest Monster Joker ~300k (LTD ~900k)
Kirby, Love and Berry DS (LTD ~800k)
Pokemon (LTD > 4.5m)
NSMB (LTD > 4m next week)
Jump Ultimate Stars (LTD > 600k, higher than last game)
Mario Kart DS (LTD ~1.9m)
English Training (LTD ~1.6m)

Wii
-------------------------------
Wii Sports ~150k (LTD ~700k)
Wii Play ~120k (LTD ~600k)
Wario (LTD ~250k)
Pokemon (LTD ~150k)
Dragon Ball Z Sparking Neo ~40k

PS3
--------------------------------
RR7, Gundam (LTD ~100k)

A lot of fresh informations. Thanks !!! I don't believe that the Wii is selling so well. What about Zelda ?

 

[PantherLotus]

Whoops, sorry.

did you miss my sweet ass charts too?? :|

This week in Sales:

Weekly Sales History:

Up-to-date Market Share:

Market Share History:

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

QFT... are you italian or what? :lol

Yeah, yeah and yeah !!!

 

[cvxfreak]

did you miss my sweet ass charts too?? :|

I'm just out of it today.

 

[PantherLotus]

I'm just out of it today.

I snuck them in again so they might be appreciated. But I had some minor analysis in the original post.

 

[Christopher]

A lot of fresh informations. Thanks !!! I don't believe that the Wii is selling so well. What about Zelda ?

Maybe the Japanese people just aren't interested in it.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Maybe the Japanese people just aren't interested in it.

Sorry, I wanna say that it is incredible how well the Wii is selling. Just unbelievable.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Sorry, I wanna say that it is incredible how well the Wii is selling. Just unbelievable.

Your enthusiasm has been noted.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

A lot of fresh informations. Thanks !!! I don't believe that the Wii is selling so well. What about Zelda ?

What week is that info for?

 

[gamergirly]

DSL 176,219
Wii 96,332
PS3 71,727
PSP 68,675
PS2 38,169
Xbox360 16,909
GBM 2,082
GBASP 1,743
GC 847
DS 102
GBA 51
Xbox 4

Wow

Not too bad

 

[Y2Kev]

A lot of fresh informations.

Uh oh for Sony.

Lack of software? Just general apathy? I'd hope the latter is caused by the former.

I thought the price could be it, but it's 100 bucks cheaper there and somebody posted earlier in the week that it is already sold at a 50 dollar discount in some stores...

 

[Christopher]

I'm still impressed with PS3 numbers for how much it costs that's pretty damn good.

 

[ghostlyjoe]

I'm still impressed with PS3 numbers for how much it costs that's pretty damn good.

Lowering our standards, are we?

 

[starship]

Wow at Wii Sports and Wii Play, it seems they almost sold 1:1 with Wii hardware last week.
And another wow at DQMJ, it'll break 1m mark this week. Easily 2m seller Lifetime.
And welcome to the million sellers club, General Knowledge Training.