Support NeoGAF

[Gaborn]

New colors would be useful for a little bump in the hardware, but as we've seen with every other platform, that's hardly enough to sustain any growth without compelling (and continuous) software to go along with it.

I'm not sure they need a long term bump. They're in a dry spell in Japan but with MH3 and Wii Sports Resort coming up (and probably other games I'm forgetting) they just need to get by until then, and some new colors would do that.

 

[Eteric Rice]

You know, if I were Nintendo, I'd try to breathe life back into titles that died out quickly. Maybe budget price them or get them with extra features? Think games like Fragile, ToS: DotnW, etc... And release a new Wii in black. It would be a sort of symbol for the hardcore gamer.

The way I see it, Nintendo owns every inch of the non-gamer turned gamer audience, I think they should bring out a symbolic color like black, along with a bunch of titles on a good deal to make a small attempt to re-allure hardcore gamers.

 

[cw_sasuke]

You know, if I were Nintendo, I'd try to breathe life back into titles that died out quickly. Maybe budget price them or get them with extra features? Think games like Fragile, ToS: DotnW, etc... And release a new Wii in black. It would be a sort of symbol for the hardcore gamer.

The way I see it, Nintendo owns every inch of the non-gamer turned gamer audience, I think they should bring out a symbolic color like black, along with a bunch of titles on a good deal to make a small attempt to re-allure hardcore gamers.

Nintendo promting 3RD PARTY HARDCORE Games ? nice one

 

[donny2112]

Nintendo promting mid-range 3RD PARTY HARDCORE Games ? nice one

Fixed. I expect some additional promotion from them for Monster Hunter and DQX.

 

[AranhaHunter]

While people are complaining about wanting (another) Resident Evil on Wii, I still want Resident Evil on the PSP, the system that has probably given Capcom the most sales this generation. C'mon Capcom, we don't just want Monster Hunter, give us RE and DMC.

 

[donny2112]

Expanded out the graphs through the end of the year, so here's the current layout.

 

[Rpgmonkey]

The handhelds really do seem to be a lot more competitive and lively market, I never noticed it as much until those charts...

 

[jeremy1456]

The handhelds really do seem to be a lot more competitive and lively market, I never noticed it as much until those charts...

You just have to completely ignore the first half of the chart :lol

 

[rpmurphy]

Doesn't look like a good trend for home consoles. What can they really do at this point?

 

[jakncoke]

any bigger games ready to be released in the next month on the home consoles?

 

[donny2112]

any bigger games ready to be released in the next month on the home consoles?

Bigger than the three-peat of Star Ocean 4, Yakuza 3, and Resident Evil 5? No way. The demo of FFXIII (free copy of Advent Children Complete with every purchase!) comes out April 16 for the PS3, and the demo of Monster Hunter 3 (free copy of Monster Hunter G with every purchase!) comes out a week later, though.

 

[jeremy1456]

any bigger games ready to be released in the next month on the home consoles?

A few.

Deca Sporta 2 will probably pull down decent numbers on the Wii. I'm also hoping that Oboro Murasama will do decent (at least 50k, please). Monster Hunter G will no doubt sell pretty well. I have this nagging feeling that Meja-Maji March is going to surprise us by selling decently. Not saying it's going to pass 100k (or even 50k honestly) but I think it'll do decently.

For PS3 Killzone 2 might pull down anywhere from 20-50k, but higher than that is doubtful. I think the FFXIII demo also hits next month, that'll rack up software sales for sure.

The Xbox 360's last horse just crossed the finish line (Star Ocean 4), and it might be the last big Japanese release for the console for a long time.

 

[justchris]

Exactly, so they would probably release them leading up to any big game they intend to bring out so at least they get a 2nd look when people are going to buy the main game.

That way you at least lessen the bomba hit

This is a bad idea. The correct way to do it is to release one of your major games, then release a few of the minor games inbetween that and your next major game, rinse, repeat. The problem is, the span between major releases has been, and looks to continue to be, too long.

You know, if I were Nintendo, I'd try to breathe life back into titles that died out quickly. Maybe budget price them or get them with extra features? Think games like Fragile, ToS: DotnW, etc... And release a new Wii in black. It would be a sort of symbol for the hardcore gamer.

The way I see it, Nintendo owns every inch of the non-gamer turned gamer audience, I think they should bring out a symbolic color like black, along with a bunch of titles on a good deal to make a small attempt to re-allure hardcore gamers.

As nice as that would be, it won't do them much good unless they can up the visibility of the system among the core gamer demographic. Doing this right around the release of Monster Hunter Tri might work. The respective 3rd parties rereleasing those games themselves would also work.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 223 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 175.2 weeks (July 8, 2003), where DS was at 98.5 weeks (October 19, 2006), and where GBA was at 150.6 weeks (February 5, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 171 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 16.5 weeks (January 2, 2002), where PS3 was at 34.7 weeks (July 6, 2007), and where Wii was at 5.0 weeks (December 31, 2006).

PS3 comparisons: After 123 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 41.1 weeks (December 10, 2000), where PSP was at 62.3 weeks (February 14, 2006), where GCN was at 119.9 weeks (December 27, 2003), and where Wii was at 32.5 weeks (July 12, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 120 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 94.2 weeks (January 7, 2003), where DS was at 76.0 weeks (May 14, 2006), where PS2 was at 113.1 weeks (April 29, 2002), and where PSP was at 163.7 weeks (January 25, 2008).

DSi comparisons: After 20 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 41.0 weeks (November 23, 2003) and where DSL was at 12.8 weeks (May 26, 2006).

Based on the latest Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 54.9 / 45.1 bring total shares to 68.6 / 31.4. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 214.7 weeks (May 4, 2013).

X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 17.6 / 82.4 bring total shares to 24.7 / 75.3. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 363.7 weeks (March 11, 2016).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 58.4 / 41.6 bring total shares to 27.3 / 72.7. This is the first time PS3 has outsold Wii four weeks in a row. At this week's rates PS3 catches up to Wii in 668.1 weeks (January 10, 2022). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 192.8 weeks (December 1, 2012).

Week over week, PS3 and X360 come down from RE5 bumps, DS and PSP bump up from new colors, and PS2 and Wii stay pretty flat.

Through the first twelve weeks of the year, almost everything is down by some degree. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.

Wii: -63.0%
DSL+DSi: -5.0%
PS2: -54.9%
PS3: -3.0%
PSP: -34.0%
X360: +207.0%

Home hardware: -41.2%
Portable hardware: -19.4%
Sum of all hardware: -29.0%

Dragon Quest is not really front-heavy compared to the average game. You're probably getting it confused with how Final Fantasy sells.

Checking now, looks like DQ VIII's first week was 63% of total sales. Not particularly front-loaded for an RPG, yeah. MHP2G, though, is at 28% and shrinking. It took 10 weeks to hit the number DQ VIII did in the first week. It took until 10 weeks of the Best version until it reached what DQ VIII did in two weeks. Still no telling where it stops.

 

[Spiegel]

PSP LTD - 12,003,821
GBA LTD - 15,348,849

Come on psp, only 3.4 million to go.

Sony was right, psp is really the new gba. It's just that they didn't expect ds to be the new ps2

 

[Jokeropia]

If PSP is "the new GBA", DS is much much more than "the new PS2".

 

[milanbaros]

I'm not sure Nintendo really need to address the relatively low Wii sales in Japan, or rather, they aren't that big of a deal.

The Japanese console market is nowhere near as important as it used to be. The UK sold far more consoles than Japan last year, although Wii sales were equal. What were February console sales in the US compared to Japan?

 

[schuelma]

I'm not sure Nintendo really need to address the relatively low Wii sales in Japan, or rather, they aren't that big of a deal.

The Japanese console market is nowhere near as important as it used to be. The UK sold far more consoles than Japan last year, although Wii sales were equal. What were February console sales in the US compared to Japan?

I think to NCL, Japan is always going to be important.

 

[cw_sasuke]

If PSP is "the new GBA", DS is much much more than "the new PS2".

There is no new Ps2, the DS is maybe the Classic GB...

 

[spwolf]

I'm not sure Nintendo really need to address the relatively low Wii sales in Japan, or rather, they aren't that big of a deal.

The Japanese console market is nowhere near as important as it used to be. The UK sold far more consoles than Japan last year, although Wii sales were equal. What were February console sales in the US compared to Japan?

what does that even mean? How can 3rd biggest market in the world not be important? 20th is important, 3rd is crucial.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

The DS is more than the GB but its the best comparison. The PSP is less than the GBA but its also its best comparison.

Handhelds, both getting expansions of the same type (GBPocket-DSLite, GBC-DSi), similar tie ratios (totally unlike consoles high tie ratios)...

The PSP is so far less than the GBA because its doing worse in hardware, software and tie ratio. Although hardware-wise it might pass it. I wonder how far it is in tie ratio, its not like GBA ended up with a PS2 tie ratio, 3 vs 4.5?

 

[jakncoke]

Bigger than the three-peat of Star Ocean 4, Yakuza 3, and Resident Evil 5? No way. The demo of FFXIII (free copy of Advent Children Complete with every purchase!) comes out April 16 for the PS3, and the demo of Monster Hunter 3 (free copy of Monster Hunter G with every purchase!) comes out a week later, though.

I meant as games that had a good chance of having a opening week of like 60k+

 

[milanbaros]

what does that even mean? How can 3rd biggest market in the world not be important? 20th is important, 3rd is crucial.

Crucial? I don't think the success or failure of Nintendo rests on them selling 1.5m or 3m Wiis in Japan in 2009.

 

[Spiegel]

If PSP is "the new GBA", DS is much much more than "the new PS2".

You are looking too much in what I have said. I compared psp with gba and ds with ps2 because these are the closest comparisons between last generation and this generation in terms of hardware sales.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

what does that even mean? How can 3rd biggest market in the world not be important? 20th is important, 3rd is crucial.

The market only takes up 10% of the entire videogame market. I do agree that they shouldn't ignore Japan as many Japanese publishers still receive a majority or a significant portion of their profits from there (Square-Enix) but it would be better for them to focus on North America and the quickly growing U.K. market. Though those markets are doing great for the Wii and Japan isn't.

Again I don't blame anyone else but Nintendo they really failed to push the hardware (new colors, new features, game releases, price drop, etc.)

 

[Linkup]

You are looking too much in what I have said. I compared psp with gba and ds with ps2 because these are the closest comparisons between last generation and this generation in terms of hardware sales.

Why leave software sells out of such a comparison. Aren't they quite relevant to making such a claim?

 

[perfectchaos007]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Wii, Japan may be done with it forever.

 

[cw_sasuke]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Wii, Japan may be done with it forever.

So Japan will ignore DQX ?

 

[Eteric Rice]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Wii, Japan may be done with it forever.

Like they were with the PSP, amirite?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Like they were with the PSP, amirite?

PSP hardware sales steadily grew from unremarkable to remarkable.

Wii hardware sales started incredible, went to remarkable, then average, then to meh.

I don't agree with perfectchaos007.

 

[markatisu]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Wii, Japan may be done with it forever.

So where does that leave the PS3 and 360 :lol

 

[Spiegel]

Why leave software sells out of such a comparison. Aren't they quite relevant to making such a claim?

Because it doesn't matter, at the end of the generation that comparison will also be the closest one. (Comparing both handhelds vs last generation consoles)

 

[donny2112]

Checking now, looks like DQ VIII's first week was 63% of total sales. Not particularly front-loaded for an RPG, yeah.

Oops. I thought it was ~50%. I'd consider 63% pretty front-loaded, too. DQVII was 47.8% for the first week, though.

There is no new Ps2, the DS is maybe the Classic GB...

Through 4 yrs and 3 months in my database, the PS2 was at 91 million in software sales. Through 4 yrs and 3 months in my database (beginning of February), the DS was at 113 million in software sales. The GB wasn't anywhere close to that level, from my understanding.

 

[Jokeropia]

You are looking too much in what I have said. I compared psp with gba and ds with ps2 because these are the closest comparisons between last generation and this generation in terms of hardware sales.

I'm just saying that PSP is so far from being to GBA what DS is to PS2 that the comparison needs a disclaimer.

PSP hardware sales steadily grew from unremarkable to remarkable.

I'm not sure I'd agree with that assertion. It seems like it was more a case of PSP-2000 giving it an instantaneous boost to a new level and MHP2 combined with an onslaught of new colors made the descent very slow.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I'm just saying that PSP is so far from being to GBA what DS is to PS2 that the comparison needs a disclaimer.
I'm not sure I'd agree with that assertion. It seems like it was more a case of PSP-2000 giving it an instantaneous boost to a new level and MHP2 combined with an onslaught of new colors made the descent very slow.

That too.

I really don't think the Wii is dead or anything, it just needs something to pull attention back to it again.

But then again, consoles are pretty irrelevant in Japan. Though, while most people say that gaming is dying in Japan, I believe that it's just taking a different path (handhelds).

 

[thaOwner]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Wii, Japan may be done with it forever.

Its just a minor set back. Things will pick up for them again.

 

[Gully State]

Once Monster Hunter 3 comes out, wii sales will spike again. Let's not forget that Nintendo has yet to cut the price on the wii also.

 

[Rolf NB]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Xbox 360, Japan may be done with it forever.

Fixed.

 

[DarkMehm]

Through 4 yrs and 3 months in my database, the PS2 was at 91 million in software sales. Through 4 yrs and 3 months in my database (beginning of February), the DS was at 113 million in software sales. The GB wasn't anywhere close to that level, from my understanding.

Your database is obviously not complete. DS is at ~60% of total software sales of the PS2. I know you only mean the first 4 years, but people are gonna believe DS is trumping PS2, which is not the case.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Once Monster Hunter 3 comes out, wii sales will spike again. Let's not forget that Nintendo has yet to cut the price on the wii also.

Also, they can still do a hardware revision with extra features and upscaling.

 

[jeremy1456]

If Nintendo doesn't do something fast on the Wii, Japan may be done with it forever.

They don't have to do something fast, or even in the near future to get the Wii back on track sale-wise.

This isn't like with the HD consoles - Wii hasn't seen even a fraction of it's Japanese oriented big releases yet.

 

[Oldschool]

Any guesses for Monster Hunter G sales?

I think it will do very well, something between 200-300k on the first week. Heck, it comes with MH3 demo.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I think it will do very well, something between 200-300k on the first week. Heck, it comes with MH3 demo.

Ps2 Port doing 200-300K first week - on Wii ? mh tri wil be out this summer, i think most ppl will be able to wait instead of buyiing a overpriced demo....

 

[schuelma]

I think it will do very well, something between 200-300k on the first week. Heck, it comes with MH3 demo.

Not that high. Should be able to maybe do 100K first week though.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Ps2 Port doing 200-300K first week - on Wii ? mh tri wil be out this summer, i think most ppl will be able to wait instead of buyiing a overpriced demo....

Unless they want that classic controller.

It's hard to say, really. 300k might be overkill, though.

 

[frankie_baby]

anyone know how much the original ps2 monster hunter games did (first week and ltd)?

 

[perfectchaos007]

They don't have to do something fast, or even in the near future to get the Wii back on track sale-wise.

This isn't like with the HD consoles - Wii hasn't seen even a fraction of it's Japanese oriented big releases yet.

You're right, it's not like HD consoles. HD consoles have a longer lifespan. The Wii's graphics are outdated by 10 years. I'm a Wii only console owner and I'm admitting this. The Wii is extremly innovative and that's what has kept the sales up in Japan for a few years, but it may be coming to an end.

Spoiler

...or not...we'll see

 

[thestopsign]

Your database is obviously not complete. DS is at ~60% of total software sales of the PS2. I know you only mean the first 4 years, but people are gonna believe DS is trumping PS2, which is not the case.

What the hell are you talking about? He is saying that the DS by a certain point of time after its launch has sold more software than the PS2 did in the same amount of time after its launch. His data may not be complete, but it's pretty damn close.

 

[[Nintex]]

Nintendo has Monster Hunter, that Samurai Musou/Dynasty Warriors game, Wii Sports Resort, Dragon Quest, Crystal Bearers and a new mainline Tales title. I'd say they've got enough coming to keep the Wii train going. The only problem is the drought between these titles and that we don't know what the hell they're up to next.

 

[donny2112]

Your database is obviously not complete. DS is at ~60% of total software sales of the PS2. I know you only mean the first 4 years, but people are gonna believe DS is trumping PS2, which is not the case.

Of course my database isn't complete. That's why I said "my database." Using complete numbers, the DS got to 100 million in software in Japan in 41 months, whereas it took the PS2 51 months.

Edit:
What Stopsign said.