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[gantz85]

So, the FFXIII demo comes in a separate SKU than just the ACC movie itself.
The MH3 demo comes bundled in all MHG copies for the Wii, right?

I think Squeenix did this move deliberately to really estimate demand for FFXIII and to squeeze revenue dollars. It's a FULLY independent SKU which a consumer buys with the intent of purchasing the FFXIII demo. If the figures for this are independently tracked and released we'll get a good idea of how many FFXIII demos were sold (and how many 1000s of Yens in revenue the demo earned).

On the other hand it's hard to say how sales of MH for the Wii is affected by the bundled MH3 demo because I think there's only a single SKU.


Anyways, it would be stunning to see if the demo sells like hotcakes.

 

[markatisu]

The MH3 demo comes bundled in all MHG copies for the Wii, right?

Yes and there are two skus, one has the MH3 demo, the other has the MH3 demo and the MH custom classic controller.

 

[donny2112]

"Well on their way"? If I take a look at other Wii games with similiar first day sales it doesn't look like it will even reach 40k...

A very loose rule of thumb on game sales in Japan is 2 x 1st day = 1st week, and 2 x 1st week = LTD. The first day part is looser than the 1st week part, but extrapolating a 16K first day yields 64K LTD.

So, the FFXIII demo comes in a separate SKU than just the ACC movie itself.

Eh? Everything I've read or seen says they're bundled together. Where are you getting this information from?

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

Yeah. According from this chart and judging from many games America isn't the only place where Wii game have legs. :lol I still remember the 15k opening the game had it's first week. Hopefully this encourage's Nintendo to make another handdrawn 2D game. Yoshi's Island 3?

It had impressive legs, but still sold much worse than Master of Disguise.

Wario Land 4 - 484,591
Wario World - 142,845
Wario: Master of Disguise - 289,872

New entries in platformer series (Mario, Yoshi, Wario, DK) should go to DS, unless they want to make a short "experimental" entry for WiiWare.

 

[slaughterking]

So, the FFXIII demo comes in a separate SKU than just the ACC movie itself.

What? You're are not telling me SE is going to sell a standalone demo? D:

 

[gantz85]

Eh? Everything I've read or seen says they're bundled together. Where are you getting this information from?

Oops. I didn't write clearly enough.

I meant that there are two SKUs, one with the FFXIII bundled and one without.

 

[gkryhewy]

Man, that is some bad-ass packaging.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Just a random thought. Wondering why specifically it was Monster Hunter G chosen to be the port to Wii. Could it be because that's the only one there isn't a PSP version of? Therefore, even people who have every version of the game on PSP might not have that one.

 

[wrowa]

Just a random thought. Wondering why specifically it was Monster Hunter G chosen to be the port to Wii. Could it be because that's the only one there isn't a PSP version of? Therefore, even people who have every version of the game on PSP might not have that one.

MHG = MHP; as far as I know.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

MHG = MHP; as far as I know.

I guess that would make sense; looks like PS2 MHG came out about 10 months before PSP MHP.

Wikipedia says that is indeed the case.

 

[MarzipaNMOS]

"Well on their way"? If I take a look at other Wii games with similiar first day sales it doesn't look like it will even reach 40k...

if Oboro behaves exactly like Odin Sphere based on first day:ltd and first day:first week ratios, it should end up at about 27k for the week and 42k ltd. Still a ways from 56k, which I believe were the expectations.

If it experiences better off-chart growth based on word of mouth or desire for items such as the art pamphlet, it may reach that goal. Wii games supposedly have longer legs, and Odin Sphere had the 'shortest' legs of the other Vanillaware games i checked the data of (Princes Crown PSP and GG) so that may help it.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

"Well on their way"? If I take a look at other Wii games with similiar first day sales it doesn't look like it will even reach 40k...

Like Wario Land Shake It! and (if my memory serves me correct) Chocobo Dungeon? Seriously the game was exactly at a 50% sell through its first day which EXACTLY meets the expectations of first shipment releases. So far everything is going just by plan for Marvelous.

It had impressive legs, but still sold much worse than Master of Disguise.

Wario Land 4 - 484,591
Wario World - 142,845
Wario: Master of Disguise - 289,872

New entries in platformer series (Mario, Yoshi, Wario, DK) should go to DS, unless they want to make a short "experimental" entry for WiiWare.

IMO I think it's more so due to the fact that handhelds have gained such a dominance in Japan. I agree that it being the worst selling main entry isn't spectacular but at least it didn't "bomb" like most thought in the first place.

 

[wrowa]

Like Wario Land Shake It! and (if my memory serves me correct) Chocobo Dungeon? Seriously the game was exactly at a 50% sell through its first day which EXACTLY meets the expectations of first shipment releases. So far everything is going just by plan for Marvelous.

I don't think that games like Wario Land (it's a Jump'n Run, it's a relatively big franchise and it's by Nintendo) or Chocobo's Dungeon (even though it didn't performed too hot, it is still a Final Fantasy spin-off) are good indications for Muramasa. I would rather take a look at stuff like Fragile or Rune Factory Frontier; these games adress a similiar audience, I'd say. And, well,... uhm... both games aren't exactly what one would call a success story.

Rune Factory Frontier: Sold 16k on day one (43%) and according to the latest MC Top 500 it's by now at 29k. MMV expected it to sell 55k.

Fragile: Sold 18k (45%) on day one, 22k in week one and since then we've never heard anything about the game.

That Muramasa's sell trough reached 50% on its first day shows primary that MMV already expected that Muramasa will fail to reach their original expectations, imo.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Rune Factory Frontier: Sold 16k on day one (43%) and according to the latest MC Top 500 it's by now at 29k. MMV expected it to sell 55k.

Fragile: Sold 18k (45%) on day one, 22k in week one and since then we've never heard anything about the game.

That Muramasa's sell trough reached 50% on its first day shows primary that MMV already expected that Muramasa will fail to reach their original expectations, imo.

I don't know what else to say the game met their expectations, and personally I don't see how Muramasa is remotely like any of those games (and I highly doubt they attract the same audience, MAYBE for Fragile but even then I don't think it's fair to compare). And again games either die a quick death, grow legs, or steadily sell for the first month then die off. I see no reason to label it a "failure" when so far it has done up with Marvelous's expectations. The rule of thumb Donny posted completely correlates with the Japanese gaming market, anything that does otherwise is seen as the exception. And I don't see how picking two failures contradicts the usual.

I'm sorry but stating that this game is "underperforming" solely because it isn't doing spectacular as it doesn't shake of the minuscule chance of falling toward the fate of two different games (one of which was sent to die) despite completely meeting expectations so far is absurd.

 

[Dash Kappei]

So if they expect it to bomb and it does within expectations that means it didn't bomb?

You'd think that for a game to bomb said game first and foremost should not turn a profit.

 

[markatisu]

I don't think that games like Wario Land (it's a Jump'n Run, it's a relatively big franchise and it's by Nintendo) or Chocobo's Dungeon (even though it didn't performed too hot, it is still a Final Fantasy spin-off) are good indications for Muramasa. I would rather take a look at stuff like Fragile or Rune Factory Frontier; these games adress a similiar audience, I'd say. And, well,... uhm... both games aren't exactly what one would call a success story.

Rune Factory Frontier: Sold 16k on day one (43%) and according to the latest MC Top 500 it's by now at 29k. MMV expected it to sell 55k.

Fragile: Sold 18k (45%) on day one, 22k in week one and since then we've never heard anything about the game.

That Muramasa's sell trough reached 50% on its first day shows primary that MMV already expected that Muramasa will fail to reach their original expectations, imo.

You are reaching with Fragile, even Namco laid the expectations of next to nothing. At TGS they had 1 kiosk for anyone who might be interested compared to a vast amount of other games that were being shown. There was little to no advertising for the game, even the hardcore Fragile owners struggled to keep up with what was going on with the game.

Rune Factory Frontier is a better example, not sure why that game did not take off.

 

[ksamedi]

I don't know what else to say the game met their expectations, and personally I don't see how Muramasa is remotely like any of those games (and I highly doubt they attract the same audience, MAYBE for Fragile but even then I don't think it's fair to compare). And again games either die a quick death, grow legs, or steadily sell for the first month then die off. I see no reason to label it a "failure" when so far it has done up with Marvelous's expectations. The rule of thumb Donny posted completely correlates with the Japanese gaming market, anything that does otherwise is seen as the exception. And I don't see how picking two failures contradicts the usual.

I'm sorry but stating that this game is "underperforming" solely because it isn't doing spectacular as it doesn't shake of the minuscule chance of falling toward the fate of two different games (one of which was sent to die) despite completely meeting expectations so far is absurd.

Why do you think it met expectations?

 

[ccbfan]

Mentioning games that was over shipped and had to have massive price collapses to move units as signs of "legs" is pretty funny.

 

[HK-47]

Flying Phoenix has been extremely defensive of Demon Blade lately. Between this thread and the official one.

 

[Mirimar]

Flying Phoenix has been extremely defensive of Demon Blade lately. Between this thread and the official one.

Why, has he played the game?

 

[HK-47]

Why, has he played the game?

Well, no...

=|

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Flying Phoenix has been extremely defensive of Demon Blade lately. Between this thread and the official one.

Actually I'm being more so defensive about people being so judgemental of sales and labeling games "bombs". Go back a page or two and you'll see me commenting on someone who claimed that 428 had "lackluster sales". Don't think of me as some Princess Crown successor series or part of Vanillaware defense force. After all you did see my post in my "Future Top-Tier Developers" thread.

In terms of the official one well ya I admit I've gone over the line (hence why I stopped posting). I guess there's no point in me beating a dead horse.

Why do you think it met expectations?

#1 It met it's first day sales exactly. (50% is the target in Japan as most pubishers say)

#2 Again the "rule of thumb" of the Japanese market place as Donny posted.

I mean think about is selling 50% of your first shipment on day one bad?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

The game was expected to sell 56k months before it's release so unless while Marvelous approved of the game and while Vanillaware was developing it they said to themselves "Hey let's not aim for this game to succeed, screw keeping costs down or looking for the game to replicate it's success in foreign markets, let's have the game purposely bomb and fail and have us lose millions!"

It doesn't have to succeed in every country, there's lots of games that bomb on one yet they make up on the others. What they expect the japanese retailers to swallow just a few months before release is not necessarily what the game has to sell to succeed, its not a milestone that defines success and failure. There's lots of factors affecting what you think you'll sell and what you actually ship other than the game own budget.

You'd think that for a game to bomb said game first and foremost should not turn a profit.

So there's only one kind of bomb? Come on, there's many kind of bombs, those that are overshipped, those that get its price collapse, those that hurt your image with retailers, those that hurt your image with users, those that while making money it fails to make as much as thought, those that while making money they see a huge decline for the franchise...

I mean think about is selling 50% of your first shipment on day one bad?

Yeah, lots of scenarios. You know you are fucked with a title and ship very little, surprise, it sells very little. Is that good or bad? You make a 200m $ game but retailers just want to swallow 5,000 units. You sell 2,500. Good or bad? You usually sell 100,000 units of this franchise, but interest declines and you only ship 20,000 because you notice it beforehand, you sell 10,000, good or bad?

 

[wrowa]

I don't know what else to say the game met their expectations, and personally I don't see how Muramasa is remotely like any of those games (and I highly doubt they attract the same audience, MAYBE for Fragile but even then I don't think it's fair to compare). And again games either die a quick death, grow legs, or steadily sell for the first month then die off. I see no reason to label it a "failure" when so far it has done up with Marvelous's expectations. The rule of thumb Donny posted completely correlates with the Japanese gaming market, anything that does otherwise is seen as the exception. And I don't see how picking two failures contradicts the usual.

I'm sorry but stating that this game is "underperforming" solely because it isn't doing spectacular as it doesn't shake of the minuscule chance of falling toward the fate of two different games (one of which was sent to die) despite completely meeting expectations so far is absurd.

These three games are (at least somewhat) RPGs, they are mid-tier, they have had very similiar first day sales (16k, 16k, 18k), all of these games had a solid first day sell-through (50%, 45%, 43% - so you could say all of them reached the initial expectations; even though that's certainly wrong, imo), none of these games got advertised very well. To my mind, these are enough similarities in order to compare these three games. I can't think of any other game one could possibly compare with Muramasa; these three games have much in common and Rune Factory and Fragile are the most recent mid-tier games on Wii.

I don't want to label Muramsa a bomb just yet and I really hope that it will reach MMVs expectations, but I'm rather pessimistic with Wii software sales lately.

You are reaching with Fragile, even Namco laid the expectations of next to nothing. At TGS they had 1 kiosk for anyone who might be interested compared to a vast amount of other games that were being shown. There was little to no advertising for the game, even the hardcore Fragile owners struggled to keep up with what was going on with the game.

But it still got a similiar first shipment as Muramasa and Rune Factory and nevertheless it is actually the game with the best first day sales of these three. It was expected to bomb, yeah, but that doesn't make things better.

 

[ksamedi]

Actually I'm being more so defensive about people being so judgemental of sales and labeling games "bombs". Go back a page or two and you'll see me commenting on someone who claimed that 428 had "lackluster sales". Don't think of me as some Princess Crown successor series or part of Vanillaware defense force. After all you did see my post in my "Future Top-Tier Developers" thread.

In terms of the official one well ya I admit I've gone over the line (hence why I stopped posting). I guess there's no point in me beating a dead horse.



#1 It met it's first day sales exactly. (50% is the target in Japan as most pubishers say)

#2 Again the "rule of thumb" of the Japanese market place as Donny posted.

I mean think about is selling 50% of your first shipment on day one bad?

I thought you had expectation numbers from the publisher thats why I asked initially.

I don't completely agree with #1 though. Technically, publishers do not determine shipment numbers, retailers do that. I have some retailer experience here in Europe (I had a company) and I can say that all we had acces to was wholesalers. Retailers just order the products and amount they think it will sell from wholesalers. Some people here also believe that publishers also restrict the amount of shipped numbers so that retail doesn't suffer if the game bombs. Thats not the case at all here in Europe though so I'm not sure if its the case in Japan either (and I hope someone with retailer experience can enlighten us). If it is the case, then you may be right in that the publisher restricted sales to "protect" the retailer. I highly doubt that scenario though. Considering that retailers actually have a better idea of what the demand is for a title.

Either way, you can't know if the publisher actually "protected" the retailer or if the retailer ordered only a small amount of copies.

 

[ksamedi]

These three games are (at least somewhat) RPGs, they are mid-tier, they have had very similiar first day sales (16k, 16k, 18k), all of these games had a solid first day sell-through (50%, 45%, 43% - so you could say all of them reached the initial expectations; even though that's certainly wrong, imo), none of these games got advertised very well. To my mind, these are enough similarities in order to compare these three games. I can't think of any other game one could possibly compare with Muramasa; these three games have much in common and Rune Factory and Fragile are the most recent mid-tier games on Wii.


But it still got a similiar first shipment as Muramasa and Rune Factory and nevertheless it is actually the game with the best first day sales of these three. It was expected to bomb, yeah, but that doesn't make things better.

You quoted someone else but wrote my nick

 

[wrowa]

You quoted someone else but wrote my nick :lol

Sorry :lol

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

It doesn't have to succeed in every country, there's lots of games that bomb on one yet they make up on the others. What they expect the japanese retailers to swallow just a few months before release is not necessarily what the game has to sell to succeed, its not a milestone that defines success and failure. There's lots of factors affecting what you think you'll sell and what you actually ship other than the game own budget.

Huh? Marvelous was shooting for 56k all along for the game. If you're trying to say that Muramasa was made to bomb in Japan but was looking for oversea's success then there still isn't any reason to call it a bomb. A bomb is only when a game doesn't meet expectations in a certain area.

These three games are (at least somewhat) RPGs, they are mid-tier, they have had very similiar first day sales (16k, 16k, 18k), all of these games had a solid first day sell-through (50%, 45%, 43% - so you could say all of them reached the initial expectations; even though that's certainly wrong, imo), none of these games got advertised very well. To my mind, these are enough similarities in order to compare these three games. I can't think of any other game one could possibly compare with Muramasa; these three games have much in common and Rune Factory and Fragile are the most recent mid-tier games on Wii.

Then it would be best to not compare to anything. Rune Factory doesn't present itself, has the same appeal, and I'm sure probably doesn't play anything like Muramasa. Not to mention that game has an established fanbase which is likely to eat up the game then leave while Muramasa is mostly a new IP. And I can go on about how Fragile is very different from Muramasa but the game was sent to die so that completely explains that the game didn't have any legs. Also Muramasa wasn't advertised well? I remember famitsu did a blowout of the game in their magazine, twice if I recall (someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

Being honest it would be best to assume the game will follow with what usually happens (especially due to the fact that the two games you listed were under special conditions *I.E. One having an established fanbase and the other sent to die*) instead of just trying to find the extremely few holes in the area and assume that that the game will trip and fall into them. I'm sorry but I just don't see the reason to say that a game is performing bad when there really aren't any signs of it doing so other then some possibilities that had happen to other games due to special conditions.

I thought you had expectation numbers from the publisher thats why I asked initially.

56k it was posted earlier.

I don't completely agree with #1 though. Technically, publishers do not determine shipment numbers, retailers do that. I have some retailer experience here in Europe (I had a company) and I can say that all we had acces to was wholesalers. Retailers just order the products and amount they think it will sell from wholesalers. Some people here also believe that publishers also restrict the amount of shipped numbers so that retail doesn't suffer if the game bombs. Thats not the case at all here in Europe though so I'm not sure if its the case in Japan either (and I hope someone with retailer experience can enlighten us). If it is the case, then you may be right in that the publisher restricted sales to "protect" the retailer. I highly doubt that scenario though. Considering that retailers actually have a better idea of what the demand is for a title.

Either way, you can't know if the publisher actually "protected" the retailer or if the retailer ordered only a small amount of copies.

That is a good point and was some very insightful reading, but I don't see 32k being too limited for a first shipment and clearly there is demand for the game.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Famitsu: Xbox360 Software LTD TOP10 (～2009/03/27)

01. Blue Dragon (Microsoft) 203,740
02. Star Ocean 4: The Last Hope (Square Enix) 203,010
03. Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco Games) 181,679
04. The Last Remnant (Square Enix) 149,565
05. Infinite Undiscovery (Square Enix) 113,195
06. Lost Odyssey (Microsoft) 109,517
07. Dead or Alive 4 (Tecmo) 108,618
08. Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) 101,874
09. Atsumare! Pinata, Platinum Collection (Microsoft) 101,552
10. Forza Motorsport 2, Platinum Collection (Microsoft) 100,591

I knew it was bad when BD outsold the newer and higher profile JRPG's. And most of the latter games came out after BD. At that point there would've been more 360's.

Not that I'm surprised but this is why my logic as to why these devs should bring at least a PS3 version to accompany the 360 counterpart always came up. Looking at SO4, wasn't the XB360 install base at least doubled by the time it came out compared to BD?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Not that I'm surprised but this is why my logic as to why these devs should bring at least a PS3 version to accompany the 360 counterpart always came up. Looking at SO4, wasn't the XB360 install base at least doubled by the time it came out compared to BD?

Not that there's any reason to disagree with things being multiplatform, but software sales maximums do not scale all that much with hardware when it comes to top end / killer app software. Hell, they don't scale anywhere close to linearly even in terms of run-of-the-mill software.

For example of this phenomenon, compare FFX and FFXII, or Gran Turismo 3 and Gran Turismo 4, or Dynasty Warriors: Gundam and Dynasty Warriors 6, or DQIVDS and DQVDS, or Shenmue and Shenmue 2, Tales of the World RM and Tales of the World RM2--I picked sequels to standardize for game appeal, but if you'd rather compare same genre different series you'd find the same thing.

 

[BishopLamont]

What? When was the demo of MH3 announced for PSP?

Talking about the eventual MHP3.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Not that there's any reason to disagree with things being multiplatform, but software sales maximums do not scale all that much with hardware when it comes to top end / killer app software. Hell, they don't scale anywhere close to linearly even in terms of run-of-the-mill software.

For example of this phenomenon, compare FFX and FFXII, or Gran Turismo 3 and Gran Turismo 4, or Dynasty Warriors: Gundam and Dynasty Warriors 6, or DQIVDS and DQVDS, or Shenmue and Shenmue 2, Tales of the World RM and Tales of the World RM2--I picked sequels to standardize for game appeal, but if you'd rather compare same genre different series you'd find the same thing.

The whole SO4 thing baffles as that game has a good pedigree and I expected numbers to at least match BD.

 

[CrushDance]

Don't new numbers get released every Tuesday?

 

[jeremy1456]

Don't new numbers get released every Tuesday?

Wednesday.

 

[t3nmilez]

The whole SO4 thing baffles as that game has a good pedigree and I expected numbers to at least match BD.

Oh, there's still plenty of time. Didn't Blue Dragon's first week end up in the 60k range? It took one hell of a long time to reach 200k, whereas Star Ocean already hit that range in a couple of months.

 

[AranhaHunter]

This week's number is gonna be interesting, I'm guessing Wii will be slightly ahead of PS3.

 

[nextgeneration]

Awesome work as usual, bttb. Why hasn't gaf promoted you from junior member status? Mods - please promote bttb!

 

[Vinnk]

This week's number is gonna be interesting, I'm guessing Wii will be slightly ahead of PS3.

Why is that? Or do you mean for the next week?

 

[AranhaHunter]

Why is that? Or do you mean for the next week?

I was talking about the numbers we get tomorrow (for last week's), sorry about the confusion.

 

[donny2112]

I was talking about the numbers we get tomorrow (for last week's), sorry about the confusion.

I think Famitsu had the PS3 and Wii both at 18K last week, so Wii > PS3 in Famitsu is possible for the week before FFXIII demo hits. MC should still have PS3 > Wii, though.

Thankts, bttb!

 

[bttb]

.

 

[shykyoichi]

Just a random info. Level 5 has announced a date for Inazuma Eleven 2.

 

[Tenbatsu]

80000　PSP BASARA
25000　PSP Monster Hunter 2ndGbest
24000　Wii Oboro Muramasa
22000　DS Mario & Luigi RPG3
22000　DS Famista DS 2009
18000　PS2 Power Pro 2009
15000　PSP Gundam
15000　PS2 Arcana Heart 2
13000　PS3 OROCHI Z
12000　Wii Taiko no Tatsujin Wii

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1223527_1796.html

Oboro!

 

[schuelma]

Not good for Oboro but could have been worse. Outsold Rune Factory Frontier surprisingly.

And Taiko officially becomes the top 3rd party game on the Wii at approximately 497K.

 

[Tideas]

I predict PS3 will win hardware in MC and Famitsu, or at the very least, MC by 3k

 

[king zell]

so Oboro didnt do bad, am happy for it

 

[Spiegel]

80000　PSP BASARA

Best first week for a -non Monster Hunter- Capcom game on psp.

But hey, let's cancel Devil May Cry Portable!

 

[Tenbatsu]

1st Week Wii Sales Figure Comparison
2007 Dec：Wii「NO MORE HEROES」12000
2008 Jul：Wii 「Fatal Frame 4」 30000
2008 Sep：Wii「DISASTER DAY OF CRISIS」 13000
2008 Oct：Wii「Tenchu 4」14000
2008 Dec：Wii「428」34000
2009 Jan：Wii「FRAGILE」23000
2009 Apr：Wii「Oboro Muramsa」24000

 

[markatisu]

Not good for Oboro but could have been worse. Outsold Rune Factory Frontier surprisingly.

And Taiko officially becomes the top 3rd party game on the Wii at approximately 497K.

75% of the shipment was sold, will have to see how much it drops next week and the following week to see if it shows legs or not.