Support NeoGAF

[pol's voice]

People tend to forget that Zelda sells way more here than it typically does in Japan.

It'll probably end up doing WW like numbers, unless the Wii takes off DS style in Japan, at which point it may end up getting into OoT territory.

 

[meltpotato]

maybe they got the memo about zelda just being a gamecube game with borked controls?

 

[Mato]

PSP and PS3 software sales are abysmal. The PS brand needs a tonic injection.

 

[enishi]

No, I think people expected that those sinners that didn't buy Zelda TP with their Wii the week before to realize their grave mistake and buy them last week!

I'm one of them
I will buy this next week (but probably won't contribute sales number )

 

[PantherLotus]

Just for perspective before the hardware comes out for this week:

LAST WEEK'S CHARTS:

*

If the 360 really DID sell 25k+, the PS3 ONLY sold 30k-ish, and the Wii really DID sell 100k+, that little black slice is actually going to lose ground this week. Maybe I should do one for total software sales, too?



*this should really say "Weekly Sales." It will be corrected for this week's data.

 

[Sgt. Killjoy]

I'm not convinced that WiiSports should have been bundled in Japan.

The assumption is that they did it for the US because it would not have sold as well and the intent is to get people to pick up and play the game. Japan is already into that sort of thing (so-called non-games) so sales are pretty much guaranteed. Rather, it was its inclusion in the US that is truly telling. They probably assumed that it would be a harder sell, and since their strategy is based around that type of software, they took the lesser profit and decided to bundle it.

In Japan, they can sell just as many copies of WiiPlay and WiiSports as in the states, but actually charge full price while doing so. Megabucks.

but we DID pay for Wii Sports...

 

[soundwave05]

Just for perspective before the hardware comes out for this week:

LAST WEEK'S CHARTS:

If the 360 really DID sell 25k+, the PS3 ONLY sold 30k-ish, and the Wii really DID sell 100k+, that little black slice is actually going to lose ground this week. Maybe I should do one for total software sales, too?

What's really the big interest in this anyway? Everyone knows 360 sales will go back to the crapper once this little surge is over. Maybe MS can hope Sony will have shortages until the next Mist Walker game comes out.

 

[PantherLotus]

but we DID pay for Wii Sports...

yup. around $20 bucks. How much is Japan paying for it?

 

[PantherLotus]

What's really the big interest in this anyway? Everyone knows 360 sales will go back to the crapper once this little surge is over. Maybe MS can hope Sony will have shortages until the next Mist Walker game comes out.

The big interest in what? Total Sales? Marketshare?

Am I in the wrong thread?

 

[Dragmire]

This is the first launch Zelda, and it's up again two big system sellers. But people will probably continue to pick Zelda up for a while when they buy a Wii because it's one of the only games out. So I imagine it'll have decent legs.

 

[soundwave05]

The big interest in what? Total Sales? Marketshare?

Am I in the wrong thread?

In the 360-PS3 "showdown", as if it's even a battle or worth comparing in any way other than a joking fashion.

 

[PantherLotus]

In the 360-PS3 "showdown", as if it's even a battle or worth comparing in any way other than a joking fashion.

Oh. I wasn't even talking about that, but rather the bigger picture. That's kinda why I included all three. No?

 

[gamergirly]

People tend to forget that Zelda sells way more here than it typically does in Japan.

It'll probably end up doing WW like numbers, unless the Wii takes off DS style in Japan, at which point it may end up getting into OoT territory.

TP's sales depend on its installed base. Pick ups for the next few months and price reductions will give it a nice boost later on but how much is weighted by how many Wii systems have been sold

 

[TekunoRobby]

I'm rather torn by these events. On one hand I'm ecstatic over the Blue Dragon sales and on the other I'm saddened by the Zelda sales.

I'm guessing the first PS3 title Japan will actually care about is VF5, game looks smoking! I doubt the PSP will recover after the DQIX announcement. Sales wise I think its going to gracefully bow out over the course of the year with a last hurrah thanks to Crisis Core. The 360 will probably slip back into a coma until Lost Odyssey or another of the other 360 RPGs come out. I hope MS Japan has learned their lesson are are reworking themselves into an RPG farm house.

 

[soundwave05]

PSP still hasn't recovered from Brain Training in May 2005. The DQIX thing was just cruel.

 

[PantherLotus]

Steel yourself. I would venture to say that the 360's Blue Dragon sales are a flash in the pan, if only because of the limited appeal of the 360 to the Japanese market. It might not appear on this list ever again.

However, I would expect that Twilight Princess to have miniature legs (35k+ per week) as systems become more available over time. I'll bet it tops out around 1.7-2.1 mill, where BD will probably top out around .7-.8 mill.

 

[soundwave05]

Steel yourself. I would venture to say that the 360's Blue Dragon sales are a flash in the pan, if only because of the limited appeal of the 360 to the Japanese market. It might not appear on this list ever again.

However, I would expect that Twilight Princess to have miniature legs (35k+ per week) as systems become more available over time. I'll bet it tops out around 1.7-2.1 mill, where BD will probably top out around .7-.8 mill.

LOL, I think you're overshooting both by a lot there.

Zelda: TP will probably finish at 500k-600k, Blue Dragon at 250k. The 360 will struggle to get a userbase of 800k, let alone a game that sells that much.

 

[PantherLotus]

We'll see, soundwave.

 

[cvxfreak]

At least they didn't buy 100k of Red Steel!

Thanks for proving his point.

 

[soundwave05]

We'll see, soundwave.

A game on a system with a full year userbase of 178k is supposed to sell 700k-800k? Ooooook. :lol It would be a minor miracle if BD can stay in the top 10 for the next week.

 

[PantherLotus]

Yeeesh. Good point. But you said "overshot both."

 

[Branduil]

maybe they got the memo about zelda just being a gamecube game with borked controls?

 

[mckmas8808]

So what's going to be the first PS3 killer app in Jpn? Any chances of the system picking up sales anytime before FFXIII is relased?

Oh shit he's back.

 

[GhaleonEB]

A game on a system with a full year userbase of 178k is supposed to sell 700k-800k? Ooooook. :lol It would be a minor miracle if BD can stay in the top 10 for the next week.

It won't stay in the top ten next week. But the 100k bundles will sell over the next few weeks, and the stand alone will sell gradually to current owners and subsequent owners. 200k is a reasonable target for the game given this start and the reality of the 360's situation in Japan.

I must say, predicting the utter and total death of the 360 in the same week when it proves that it has a chance at carving out a small but decent niche is weird reasoning. I don't track too many sales but I do the 360 in Japan for the hell of it, and the graph is pretty amazing going from 3k to 30k in one week. Through most of the year, it was safe to say the 360 was utterly dead. But seeing the 360 moving a minimum of 30,000 systems in one week and having folks call it dead when we have no idea what kind of long-term boost that gives the system, strikes me as premature. Never thought I'd say that. :lol

 

[PantherLotus]

It won't stay in the top ten next week. But the 100k bundles will sell over the next few weeks, and the stand alone will sell gradually to current owners and subsequent owners. 200k is a reasonable target for the game given this start and the reality of the 360's situation in Japan.

I must say, predicting the utter and total death of the 360 in the same week when it proves that it has a chance at carving out a small but decent niche is weird reasoning. I don't track too many sales but I do the 360 in Japan for the hell of it, and the graph is pretty amazing going from 3k to 30k in one week. Through most of the year, it was safe to say the 360 was utterly dead. But seeing the 360 moving a minimum of 30,000 systems in one week and having folks call it dead when we have no idea what kind of long-term boost that gives the system, strikes me as premature. Never thought I'd say that. :lol

To be fair, 360 had a year head start in Japan and lost 75% marketshare within 48 hours of the PS3 and Wii launches, while DS and PS2 continue to rule the land and Japanese spending cash. Its a tough argument to make that one game will turn around a whole year of poor-performance.

I mean, look:

The green part is with a whole freaking year. The white and black parts are one freaking week!

 

[Odysseus]

It won't stay in the top ten next week. But the 100k bundles will sell over the next few weeks, and the stand alone will sell gradually to current owners and subsequent owners. 200k is a reasonable target for the game given this start and the reality of the 360's situation in Japan.

I must say, predicting the utter and total death of the 360 in the same week when it proves that it has a chance at carving out a small but decent niche is weird reasoning. I don't track too many sales but I do the 360 in Japan for the hell of it, and the graph is pretty amazing going from 3k to 30k in one week. Through most of the year, it was safe to say the 360 was utterly dead. But seeing the 360 moving a minimum of 30,000 systems in one week and having folks call it dead when we have no idea what kind of long-term boost that gives the system, strikes me as premature. Never thought I'd say that. :lol

D-E-D dead, dude.

But it may just be revived a time or two for short bursts. And then back to the grave.

 

[bigswords]

speaking of DS and Wii........Wii can connect to WiFi vie the DS dongle am I right?

Yes correct.

 

[bigswords]

A game on a system with a full year userbase of 178k is supposed to sell 700k-800k? Ooooook. :lol It would be a minor miracle if BD can stay in the top 10 for the next week.

I mean after the DQXI news... I mean anything could happen. :lol :lol :lol

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

In the 360-PS3 "showdown", as if it's even a battle or worth comparing in any way other than a joking fashion.

Come on. This is much better than 2005's ongoing Xbox versus GBA competition!

 

[GhaleonEB]

D-E-D dead, dude.

But it may just be revived a time or two for short bursts. And then back to the grave.

Last week, I'd have agreed. This week? 30,000 systems. Chance for small niche. It's not like I'm predicting raging success or anything. :lol

 

[ZeoVGM]

maybe they got the memo about zelda just being a gamecube game with borked controls?

Considering that would be a lie, I doubt it.

 

[Odysseus]

Last week, I'd have agreed. This week? 30,000 systems. Chance for small niche. It's not like I'm predicting raging success or anything. :lol

Define small.

I think maybe the thing might make it back to Xbox 1 numbers. One year ago, that would be considered terrible. Now, well, still terrible, but better than last week's impossible.

 

[Lapsed]

"WAH! Look how fast Twilight Princess sales numbers dropped!"

I have been saying this for some time, but customers are not interested in grand games with higher-quality graphics and sound and epic stories. Cutting-edge technologies and multiple functions do not necessarily lead to more fun. The excessively hardware-oriented way of thinking is totally wrong, but manufacturers are just throwing money at developing higher-performance hardware.

Yamauchi told the paper that in a move to oppose the "bigger is better" mentality he thought up the idea of the Nintendo DS, a dual-screened portable device set to be shown at E3 2004 in May.

The former NCL president dismissed the quick arrival of a next-generation console. Nintendo has no plans to release a so-called 'next-generation' videogame console at the next year's Electronic Entertainment Expo in Las Vegas. We will rather make a new proposal that uses the GameCube at its core. Only people who do not know the videogame business would advocate the release of next-generation machines when people are not interested in cutting-edge technologies.

He speaks!

 

[Striek]

After reading the first and last pages I am say wow. At Blue Dragon.

Thats phenomenal for a 360 title. Thank god they had a bit of brains and lapped up a quality title with a ludicrously good bundle. And the top 10 is the most tasteful in a long while from them. Very nice.

Oh but 'small niche', wtf. Any niche the 360 has is and will always be microscopic in JPN.

 

[Odysseus]

He speaks!

He's retarded!

That line of bull is still as dumb now as it was whenever it was when he uttered it.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Define small.

I think maybe the thing might make it back to Xbox 1 numbers. One year ago, that would be considered terrible. Now, well, still terrible, but better than last week's impossible.

With Blue Dragon providing this kind of a boost, and a decent number of similar RPGs in 2007, I can see the 360 averaging out to ~k/8-10k/week next year, factoring in the boosts. If they sustain that, it's a couple million systems over the life of the console.

Mind you, I'm not predicting that right now. I'm saying given the (apparant) boost to 360 sales, it's possible. If the system sustains sales over 20k for the next couple of weeks, then I'd say it could happen.

 

[KINGMOKU]

He's retarded!

That line of bull is still as dumb now as it was whenever it was when he uttered it.

Yup, and sales of the DS, and Wii make him look real stupid.

 

[PantherLotus]

Yup, and sales of the DS, and Wii make him look real stupid.

The Wii has not even sold 2 million WW yet. How about we give it a couple months before we necromance the man that ran Nintendo into the ground?

 

[kisakiproject]

The Wii has not even sold 2 million WW yet. How about we give it a couple months before we necromance the man that ran Nintendo into the ground?

He ran it into the ground after owning the world for 15 years to be fair. But I do agree Wii success is to early to call. However NDS at this point is just absurd. 30 million it 2 year just imagine how huge it will be by the time they actually release DS2.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Yup, and sales of the DS, and Wii make him look real stupid.

Wii? Why don't we wait a few months before declaring it the most successful thing since Google.

 

[Mato]

Yup, and sales of the DS, and Wii make him look real stupid.

I've heard that he was the one who suggested they make the DS, just before he left.

 

[Odysseus]

Yup, and sales of the DS, and Wii make him look real stupid.

For him to be absolved of any and all idiocy, Wii would need to set the entire world ablaze while Xbox 360 and PS3 failed miserably. Nintendo may indeed profit like mad off handheld kids and home console manchildren, but rest assured PS3 and Xbox 360 will indeed be around well after Wii has been relegated to the trashheap of gaming history.

 

[Branduil]

For him to be absolved of any and all idiocy, Wii would need to set the entire world ablaze while Xbox 360 and PS3 failed miserably. Nintendo may indeed profit like mad off handheld kids and home console manchildren, but rest assured PS3 and Xbox 360 will indeed be around well after Wii has been relegated to the trashheap of gaming history.

:lol

 

[Mato]

For him to be absolved of any and all idiocy, Wii would need to set the entire world ablaze while Xbox 360 and PS3 failed miserably. Nintendo may indeed profit like mad off handheld kids and home console manchildren, but rest assured PS3 and Xbox 360 will indeed be around well after Wii has been relegated to the trashheap of gaming history.

That's one bully snowman right there.

 

[PantherLotus]

He ran it into the ground after owning the world for 15 years to be fair. But I do agree Wii success is to early to call. However NDS at this point is just absurd. 30 million it 2 year just imagine how huge it will be by the time they actually release DS2.

It was his arrogance, stubbornness, traditionalism and non-willingness to work with 3rd parties that cost Nintendo the crown in the N64/PS1 era. He single-handedly lost DragonQuest, Final Fantasy, and Metal Gear (the three biggest franchises in Japan) because of a refusal to go to a cheaper format.

He might have kept them profitable, and he might have been head of the company when it was #1, but one would argue that it was the games from Miyamoto that actually made Nintendo #1 for all those years. But that wasn't enough.

It is a major credit to Iwata at the strides that Nintendo has taken since his tenure began, and a major shame on Sony for not learning from this bastard's lessons of hubris for us all.

 

[Odysseus]

That's one bully snowman right there.

It's friggin cold! :/

 

[Smiles and Cries]

predictions

DS - 270,000
Wii - 109,000
Xbox 360 - 42,000
PS3 - 34,000
PSP - 31,000
PS2 - 22,000

 

[capslock]

The Wii has not even sold 2 million WW yet. How about we give it a couple months before we necromance the man that ran Nintendo into the ground?

....he did?

 

[xabre]

...rest assured PS3 and Xbox 360 will indeed be around well after Wii has been relegated to the trashheap of gaming history.

I think that's a comment you would do well to reconsider.

 

[PantherLotus]

For him to be absolved of any and all idiocy, Wii would need to set the entire world ablaze while Xbox 360 and PS3 failed miserably. Nintendo may indeed profit like mad off handheld kids and home console manchildren, but rest assured PS3 and Xbox 360 will indeed be around well after Wii has been relegated to the trashheap of gaming history.

You started off so...stupid...and it just got worse. But still, I'll bite.

I'd say that he would be absolved of that idiotic statement if the Wii merely SPLITS the market in Japan with Sony. 50/50. I think they can do it, but I'm not sure for how long.