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[jimbo]

We already have a real world example of this line of thinking being completely dismissed, and that's the DS.

It's the power-slut philosophy, 'unit A is more powerful than unit B, therefore unit A will see greater success'. Your argument is wholly simplistic and has been done to death, the DS proved it utterly flawed and Wii will most likely do the same thing.

I don't know how much of it is the power-slut philosophy, but honestly I also agree with him on the Wii being third in the US. The fact that it is underpowered, no HD, no DVD player and no serious online service are, believe it or not, the LEAST of the Wii's problems.

The Wii's most glaring problem is the same as with all previous Nintendo consoles with the exception of SNES and NES: GAMES. Games that are NOT Mario, Zelda or Pokemon. Games that have been popular, have become popular and will become popular on anything OTHER THAN a post-N64 Nintendo console.

The N64, at launch was an amazing machine. Even more amazing than the Wii. Mario 64 actuall SHOWED the revolution the N64 was supposed to be. But it quickly ran into a brick wall, Why? Lack of games. Lack of third party support with quality games and major franchises. The same thing I was asking myself when I was walking into my local Blockbuster, and I will never forget those painfull days because I retardedly sold my PS and was stuck ONLY with a N64, is why the hell is there nothing to rent?

The same question will be asked by a lot of Wii owners. What are they going to play on it in between the next Mario, Zelda and Metroid?

What and how many hardware moving games are there going to be released for the Wii over the next month? 6 months? 1 year? Because as cool as the Wiimote might be, nobody wants to waive it in the air. People did buy it, after all, to play games on it. And on top of that Americans and youth in general have a short attention span. Yeah I just got a flood of great games on my 360. I bought 4 over the past month: PSO, Splinter Cell, GOW and Viva Pinata....and guess what? I'm already eager for the next one. That's why I am spending as much time as I am on here. I want another big game.

While Nfans and hardcore gamers will say they will play through Zelda over and over and over again...most people won't. Sorry. It's true. It's always been, and always will be....what have you done for me lately? As in yesterday, today, now.

 

[soundwave05]

Thats really sad if Nintendo's biggest selling point in 2007 is its "MySpace features", atleast from a gamer's perspective.

Well, I recall a lot of the same snickering at Brain Training for the DS. We saw how that turned out, didn't we?

Myspace is a huge cultural phenomenon especailly with women ... if Nintendo can create a service like that with the Wii that uses their own creativity, it is not something I would sleep on, at all.

The Mii Channel as basic as it is right now, I'm finding is actually one of the most popular features of the Wii for "non-gamers". People love it.

 

[smallsoft]

The Wii has better press/marketing/mindshare in a few weeks than the GameCube ever got in its lifetime. Lets face it, there's one system that the mainstream is talking about right now, and it ain't the PS3 or 360.

The competetion is also softer this time out. Would I rather face a 20 million PS2 with an installed base and MGS2, GTA3, FFX, etc. exclusive? Or a 360 that's doing ho-hum numbers and blew most of its headstart because of shortages with little userbase in Europe and Japan? And Sony stuck in the $500-$600 range?

This is a great situation for Nintendo.

I agree here. But I still think thats its going to be the innovative use of the Wiimote that drives sales, not much else.

And right now, I just dont see that much new coming down the pipeline? Am I wrong here?

 

[RaijinFY]

Looks like Sega's shipment of Love and Berry exceeded 1 Million. Looks like Sega's expecting sales to build up over the weeks.

http://www.dengekionline.com/data/news/2006/12/14/c5cf0fc9e2c84d81736a8cf3e423a765.html

That's some funny shit... It seems now Sega is stronger than ever in Japan.

 

[Karma Kramer]

If Sony would have had more launch units they would have sold.
If Nintendo would have had more launch units they would have sold.

This isn't about woulda, or coulda, or shoulda, or even the ethereal "if," this is about actualities. This is about what each company can produce and sell as quickly as possible while capitalizing on the failures of its competitors.

And I don't think that MS has a large enough head start to be comfortable with its market share in ANY territory right now. Obviously Japan, but also the US and PAL.

I am only demonstrating the fact that supply = sales at launch. Launch hype is just that strong. I mean look at the PS3 launch. It sold out immediately and was going for $1200 on ebay... but now about a month later its only going for $700 and consoles are actually sitting on store shelves.

When you are looking at numbers and trying to determine future sales, the most important thing to look for is "demand." If you don't remember the 360 had "huge" demand back in 2005 and early 2006. It wasn't until April that you could actually "find" a 360 on a shelf.

So my point is when you look at the Wii launch numbers and see the huge sales and the large demand... you have to remember that the demand will dramtically decrease in 2007. It won't be until then when you can get a good idea of how well the console will perform throughout its lifetime. Then theres the fact that the Xbox 360 is reaching its first price -drop ect...

Theres alot of confounding variables to be considered and until we reach Spring 2007 we really don't have any idea what is going to be the final result.

 

[justchris]

The truth is that MS should expect to see its next-gen lead completely lost by March, if not sooner. In every territory.

In every territory? I doubt that. I think come March MS will still have the lead in the US. They'll probably be neck & neck with Ninty in EU/AU, and...well, yeah, no point in even discussing Japan. BD gives the 360 a good start, but unless they can build some momentum with future releases I just don't see their marketshare improving in Japan.

 

[A Black Falcon]

*I'll just drop the Yamuchi argument* I have a lot to learn about him, it seems.

Also remember that he was responsible for the idea behind the DS, and we know how that turned out...

Yamauchi does have his problems (driving some people out of the company for not doing well enough, being so focused on business that he ignored his family a lot, being a very controlling boss, etc, I believe), but business-wise he was amazingly successful. And the fact that Nintendo has been profitable in all but one quarter of the past few decades is pretty amazing when you look at most of their competitors...

And anyway, the N64 was a great console, and for the time the cart decision was the right one... PSX loadtimes are a pain... they just needed to not anger Square and it would all have worked out anyway.

 

[soundwave05]

I agree here. But I still think thats its going to be the innovative use of the Wiimote that drives sales, not much else.

And right now, I just dont see that much new coming down the pipeline? Am I wrong here?

Depends on what you define as innovative. A puppy simulator and an edutainment game are what lit the DS on fire, not some "OMG, it's uber-innovational RPG-action-platformer game".

Everyone on this board thought Mario Kart and Jump Superstars would be what would get the DS going ... not Nintendogs and Brain Training. Nintendo understands the non-gamer audience better than gamers. I think that's become pretty obvious this past year and a half.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

In every territory? I doubt that. I think come March MS will still have the lead in the US. They'll probably be neck & neck with Ninty in EU/AU, and...well, yeah, no point in even discussing Japan. BD gives the 360 a good start, but unless they can build some momentum with future releases I just don't see their marketshare improving in Japan.

lol

 

[smallsoft]

I am only demonstrating the fact that supply = sales at launch. Launch hype is just that strong. I mean look at the PS3 launch. It sold out immediately and was going for $1200 on ebay... but now about a month later its only going for $700 and consoles are actually sitting on store shelves.

When you are looking at numbers and trying to determine future sales, the most important thing to look for is "demand." If you don't remember the 360 had "huge" demand back in 2005 and early 2006. It wasn't until April that you could actually "find" a 360 on a shelf.

So my point is when you look at the Wii launch numbers and see the huge sales and the large demand... you have to remember that the demand will dramtically decrease in 2007. It won't be until then when you can get a good idea of how well the console will perform throughout its lifetime. Then theres the fact that the Xbox 360 is reaching its first price -drop ect...

Theres alot of confounding variables to be considered and until we reach Spring 2007 we really don't have any idea what is going to be the final result.

I think Kramer makes a good point about launch demand. We can all agree that 2007 will be the real test.

Now how to predict sales throughout the 07 year? Software, am I right?

 

[WARCOCK]

Yamauchi wanted the N64 to have CD. Miyamoto demanded carts.

Yamauchi wanted the GC to go "toe-to-toe" with PS2 in terms of features (DVD playback, etc). Board of directors shut him down.

Indeed,indeed. Nobody trifles with the great visionary. Also wasnt he implicated with the DS, i remember him saying like that he was kinda behind it in the "RISE TO HEAVEN" interview.

 

[Karma Kramer]

The truth is that MS should expect to see its next-gen lead completely lost by March, if not sooner. In every territory.

Wow....

 

[Deku]

I don't know how much of it is the power-slut philosophy, but honestly I also agree with him on the Wii being third in the US. The fact that it is underpowered, no HD, no DVD player and no serious online service are, believe it or not, the LEAST of the Wii's problems.

The Wii's most glaring problem is the same as with all previous Nintendo consoles with the exception of SNES and NES: GAMES. Games that are NOT Mario, Zelda or Pokemon. Games that have been popular, have become popular and will become popular on anything OTHER THAN a post-N64 Nintendo console.

The N64, at launch was an amazing machine. Even more amazing than the Wii. Mario 64 actuall SHOWED the revolution the N64 was supposed to be. But it quickly ran into a brick wall, Why? Lack of games. Lack of third party support with quality games and major franchises. The same thing I was asking myself when I was walking into my local Blockbuster, and I will never forget those painfull days because I retardedly sold my PS and was stuck ONLY with a N64, is why the hell is there nothing to rent?

The same question will be asked by a lot of Wii owners. What are they going to play on it in between the next Mario, Zelda and Metroid?

What and how many hardware moving games are there going to be released for the Wii over the next month? 6 months? 1 year? Because as cool as the Wiimote might be, nobody wants to waive it in the air. People did buy it, after all, to play games on it. And on top of that Americans and youth in general have a short attention span. Yeah I just got a flood of great games on my 360. I bought 4 over the past month: PSO, Splinter Cell, GOW and Viva Pinata....and guess what? I'm already eager for the next one. That's why I am spending as much time as I am on here. I want another big game.

While Nfans and hardcore gamers will say they will play through Zelda over and over and over again...most people won't. Sorry. It's true. It's always been, and always will be....what have you done for me lately? As in yesterday, today, now.

All of that is true, but I don't think that Wii, if it fails (relatively speaking), will fail because it did not reach out past the core 'Nfan' demographic.

The most critical thing in 2007 is getting a good supply of games going. Mario and SSB is pegged at 07 releases, but there also needs to more than those games and new and interesting games from 3rd parties.

There is a caveat: The price of PS3 and launching right alongside the PS3 means the Nintendo won't be in the position of having to absolutely deliver in its 1st year, which was the problem it faced with both the GameCube and N64 when both console's 1st year post launch faced a PlayStation running its 2nd year. They have a bit more breathing room, especially in Japan.

Just my thoughts.

 

[soundwave05]

I think Kramer makes a good point about launch demand. We can all agree that 2007 will be the real test.

Now how to predict sales throughout the 07 year? Software, am I right?

Image is also more than half the battle IMO. If Nintendo can continue to have the Wii seen as a "lifestyle/inclusive" type of experience ... something a guy can play with his girlfriend and that stuff ... they are golden.

Content isn't always everything actually. The Dreamcast had *great* content it's second year and sales actually went south. You have to have content that vibes with the image of your console and generates excitement within certain demographics.

 

[PantherLotus]

jimbo makes a good point: it comes down to games.

My question is whether or not Nintendo has found the golden goose for games, and that being the casual gamer? I'm not convinced.

Karma Kramer makes a good point too about launch sales too, and I actually agree: we pretty much all know that whatever they (all) can produce at launch will almost assuredly sell.

I think what I was trying to point out is how small 360's lead really is, and how much of a wasted opportunity they let slip by... Is it out of the question to expect Nintendo to sell 1 million Wii in December? I don't think its completely ridiculous. That's only 250k per week.

 

[justchris]

All those non-gaming moms and grandmas watching daytime talk television still need to go out and spend $250 on gaming hardware they'll never actually use. You may expect that to happen, but I certainly do not. Goodwill, free pub or not. But, again, we'll see soon enough.

Yeeeeeeeeaaaahhhh...people in America buy a lot of useless crap they don't use, and they spend much more than a measly $250 on it. I kinda agree with you that the Wii has a pretty tough struggle ahead of it, but the price is not going to be the reason.

 

[smallsoft]

Depends on what you define as innovative. A puppy simulator and an edutainment game are what lit the DS on fire, not some "OMG, it's uber-innovational RPG-action-platformer game".

Everyone on this board thought Mario Kart and Jump Superstars would be what would get the DS going ... not Nintendogs and Brain Training. Nintendo understands the non-gamer audience better than gamers. I think that's become pretty obvious this past year and a half.

Dude, we're on the same page. I think Nintendogs and Brain Training's success really proves that N gets the non-gamer audience. So when I say I dont see that much innovation down the 2007 pipeline, I am trying to look for new software that non-gamers would love... I am NOT talking about Brawl or Metroid, b/c thats not what the Wii is about.

Wii Aerobics sounds like a possible huge seller...
Pong could be addictively fun as well....

 

[jimbo]

But how is that even debatable? Like how? What could possibly happen, outside of some crazy and disastrous Wiimote accident, that can negate all the goodwill Nintendo has ALREADY built with the Wii brand amongst people like Dr. Phil's audience and others who have never touched video games before? How? How do you rationalize it in your head? It just makes no sense. I can see if you're not a fan of it and you don't want it to happen, but to suggest that the Wii will sell to a narrow demographic like the 'Cube relatively did just seems to be based on nothing.

Uhm...:lol You want reason? How about because of games? No one is going to give a crap about Dr. Phil, launch numbers, and launch media 6 months from now. People buy consoles to play games on it. The system with the best games wins. The one with the worst games lose.

You people always lose sight of this. I know I know this is GAF and you don't play games. But real gamers.....avid gamers.....casual gamers....that's why they buy these things. To play games on them.

Crazy huh? And they don't give a rat's ass about sales, Dr Phil, or media. They want to know....what's the next big game to play. And if the Wii doesn't get enough of those....that's how it can get there.

 

[GhaleonEB]

jimbo makes a good point: it comes down to games.

My question is whether or not Nintendo has found the golden goose for games, and that being the casual gamer? I'm not convinced.

Karma Kramer makes a good point too about launch sales too, and I actually agree: we pretty much all know that whatever they (all) can produce at launch will almost assuredly sell.

I think what I was trying to point out is how small 360's lead really is, and how much of a wasted opportunity they let slip by... Is it out of the question to expect Nintendo to sell 1 million Wii in December? I don't think its completely ridiculous. That's only 250k per week.

There's a double effect going on, with the launch attracting the Nintendo faithful, and the holidays boosting demand. Nintendo will sell out this holiday, but I'm actually more interested in what happens this spring, especially when/if the 360 drops in price and the PS3 becomes more readily available.

 

[soundwave05]

Non-gaming grandmas ... maybe not ... but college aged girls ... hell yes. That's a clear demographic that if you're Nintendo you want to aggressively pursue. And all the stuck up hardcore gamers can't turn their nose up at this, because they know that it makes them then look like nerds by comparision.

It's a total mindf-ck for hardcore gamers that have loved to hide behind the "Nintendo is teh kiddie" thing for the last 5 years.

Nintendo used to be a pushover in the marketing/mindshare battle of the console wars ... not anymore.

 

[Odysseus]

Yeeeeeeeeaaaahhhh...people in America buy a lot of useless crap they don't use, and they spend much more than a measly $250 on it. I kinda agree with you that the Wii has a pretty tough struggle ahead of it, but the price is not going to be the reason.

They spend that type of money on exercise equipment to get their overweight selves back into shape and eventually use it as a place to deposit laundry. I'm afraid a video game console simply doesn't have that same dual functionality. I think people are kidding themselves if they believe non-gamers are what are driving the success of the DS, let alone are the group of people that will get behind the Wii. I'm saying it's not going to happen. If it turns out that I'm wrong, so be it.

 

[fallout]

Predictions:

 

[Karma Kramer]

I think what I was trying to point out is how small 360's lead really is, and how much of a wasted opportunity they let slip by... Is it out of the question to expect Nintendo to sell 1 million Wii in December? I don't think its completely ridiculous. That's only 250k per week.

If the Wii sells double (400k) every month in 2007... it still won't catch up to the Xbox 360 for quite some time. And thats assuming that the 360 keeps selling 200k (which it won't once there is a price drop)

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Uhm...:lol You want reason? How about because of games? No one is going to give a crap about Dr. Phil, launch numbers, and launch media 6 months from now. People buy consoles to play games on it. The system with the best games wins. The one with the worst games lose.

You people always lose sight of this. I know I know this is GAF and you don't play games. But real gamers.....avid gamers.....casual gamers....that's why they buy these things. To play games on them.

Crazy huh? And they don't give a rat's ass about sales, Dr Phil, or media. They want to know....what's the next big game to play. And if the Wii doesn't get enough of those....that's how it can get there.

OK, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume it will get the same amount of games as the GC at the absolute freakin' minimum. Agree or disagree? That, in conjunction with all the buzz that you said is meaningless, assures many more sales than the 'Cube. Again, I just don't see how it can do anything but much better.

 

[cvxfreak]

If this thread reaches 500 posts before hardware comes out, I will say wow.

 

[PantherLotus]

If the Wii sells double (400k) every month in 2007... it still won't catch up to the Xbox 360 for quite some time. And thats assuming that the 360 keeps selling 200k (which it won't once there is a price drop)

You have 360 at 3.4 million LTD, right?

 

[smallsoft]

Image is also more than half the battle IMO. If Nintendo can continue to have the Wii seen as a "lifestyle/inclusive" type of experience ... something a guy can play with his girlfriend and that stuff ... they are golden.

Content isn't always everything actually. The Dreamcast had *great* content it's second year and sales actually went south. You have to have content that vibes with the image of your console and generates excitement within certain demographics.

Well, a lot of people would say that EA's lack of support killed the dreamcast. Thus, failure by lack of content.

I do think however that if Nintendo can "socialize" the wii in the mind of the non-gamer, where playing the Wii is actually something "cool" that you can do with your gf, then they will succeed.

But thats quite a hurdle to jump.

 

[Odysseus]

You have 360 at 3.4 million LTD, right?

And it will be at 4.4 million LTD in the US after December, in all likelihood.

If this thread reaches 500 posts before hardware comes out, I will say wow.

Hardware going to be out in an hour?

 

[soundwave05]

If the Wii sells double (400k) every month in 2007... it still won't catch up to the Xbox 360 for quite some time. And thats assuming that the 360 keeps selling 200k (which it won't once there is a price drop)

Worldwide though Nintendo can overtake MS pretty quickly if the Wii takes off in Japan and does well in Europe as well.

Right now the main priority for Nintendo I think is to get as big of a head up on SONY. Microsoft is easier to deal with in the long run because they have big time issues in 2/3 major markets and have a more limited appeal to date than what Sony does.

2007 is all about making Sony pay for even thinking about making PS3 $500-$600.

 

[mood]

I think what I was trying to point out is how small 360's lead really is, and how much of a wasted opportunity they let slip by... Is it out of the question to expect Nintendo to sell 1 million Wii in December? I don't think its completely ridiculous. That's only 250k per week.

You dont think 360 will do 1 million or more in decemeber?

 

[underfooter]

I don't know how much of it is the power-slut philosophy, but honestly I also agree with him on the Wii being third in the US. The fact that it is underpowered, no HD, no DVD player and no serious online service are, believe it or not, the LEAST of the Wii's problems.

The Wii's most glaring problem is the same as with all previous Nintendo consoles with the exception of SNES and NES: GAMES. Games that are NOT Mario, Zelda or Pokemon. Games that have been popular, have become popular and will become popular on anything OTHER THAN a post-N64 Nintendo console.

The N64, at launch was an amazing machine. Even more amazing than the Wii. Mario 64 actuall SHOWED the revolution the N64 was supposed to be. But it quickly ran into a brick wall, Why? Lack of games. Lack of third party support with quality games and major franchises. The same thing I was asking myself when I was walking into my local Blockbuster, and I will never forget those painfull days because I retardedly sold my PS and was stuck ONLY with a N64, is why the hell is there nothing to rent?

The same question will be asked by a lot of Wii owners. What are they going to play on it in between the next Mario, Zelda and Metroid?

What and how many hardware moving games are there going to be released for the Wii over the next month? 6 months? 1 year? Because as cool as the Wiimote might be, nobody wants to waive it in the air. People did buy it, after all, to play games on it. And on top of that Americans and youth in general have a short attention span. Yeah I just got a flood of great games on my 360. I bought 4 over the past month: PSO, Splinter Cell, GOW and Viva Pinata....and guess what? I'm already eager for the next one. That's why I am spending as much time as I am on here. I want another big game.

While Nfans and hardcore gamers will say they will play through Zelda over and over and over again...most people won't. Sorry. It's true. It's always been, and always will be....what have you done for me lately? As in yesterday, today, now.

360 didn't have the strongest first year or post-launch. Neither did PS2, or Xbox, or Gamecube. Atleast Wii had Zelda (which is comparable to Xbox's Halo), and by the end of 2007 we can expect Mario Galaxy, Metroid, and Smash Bros. to be guaranteed AAA. On top of that: SSX Blur, Sonic, Wario Ware, and Wii play just within the coming months.

 

[PantherLotus]

And it will be at 4.4 million LTD in the US after December, in all likelihood.



Hardware going to be out in an hour?

Wait a sec. You mean people will still be buying 360s after the PS3 and the Wii come out?! That throws a wrench into every prediction I've made!

 

[Karma Kramer]

You have 360 at 3.4 million LTD, right?

No... 3.8 million (Source)

The Wii is at 491k

You still think the Wii will outsell the 360 by March?

edit: unless those numbers are wrong...

 

[TFIFF]

The Wii's most glaring problem is the same as with all previous Nintendo consoles with the exception of SNES and NES: GAMES. Games that are NOT Mario, Zelda or Pokemon. Games that have been popular, have become popular and will become popular on anything OTHER THAN a post-N64 Nintendo console.


The same question will be asked by a lot of Wii owners. What are they going to play on it in between the next Mario, Zelda and Metroid?

I would agree with your sentiment if the Wii didn't have so many games to fall back on, such as a) the virtual console b) things in motion implying much better third party support than usual (such as Square Enix).

Also let's not forget how strong the Nintendo name brand is right now- that alone can move a lot of hardware (just look at the demand right now for the PS3).

I am not saying that there isn't a chance the Wii could end up third in sales in America, but it certainly won't be due to a lack of available games that aren't Metroid/Mario/Zelda.

 

[PantherLotus]

No... 3.8 million (Source)

The Wii is at 491k

You still think the Wii will outsell the 360 by March?

edit: unless those numbers are wrong...

Well I was going by November NPDs, looks like that is a press release from December 8th. Not sure how that coincides.

Either way, I think it will indeed be difficult for the Wii to overtake the 360 before March. Let me think about it for a bit.

 

[GhaleonEB]

No... 3.8 million (Source)

The Wii is at 491k

You still think the Wii will outsell the 360 by March?

edit: unless those numbers are wrong...

Those numbes are wrong. It's 3.4m. Want each months number?

The 360 will move at least a million units in December. It's perfectly followed seasonal patterns all year, and the October-November boost was actually ahead of seasonality.

 

[smallsoft]

I would agree with your sentiment if the Wii didn't have so many games to fall back on, such as a) the virtual console b) things in motion implying much better third party support than usual (such as Square Enix).

Also let's not forget how strong the Nintendo name brand is right now- that alone can move a lot of hardware (just look at the demand right now for the PS3).

I am not saying that there isn't a chance the Wii could end up third in sales in America, but it certainly won't be due to a lack of available games that aren't Metroid/Mario/Zelda.

I am going to disagree about the third party statement. I was at GDC and Develop in England recently, and not one peep from the Western Devs about Wii. Everyone was too busy eye-humping Gears of War.

 

[soundwave05]

It's funny because after it's all said and done, a puppy simulator turned out to be a bigger system seller than Gears of War.

GoW really didn't spike 360 hardware sales all that much.

That's part of the problem with GAF. When they're asking "where's the new franchise?", only an big-time action-adventure game or something apparently qualifies. Meanwhile Nintendo releases some small game that was off most people's radars here and it changes the market.

 

[jimbo]

All of that is true, but I don't think that Wii, if it fails (relatively speaking), will fail because it did not reach out past the core 'Nfan' demographic.

The most critical thing in 2007 is getting a good supply of games going. Mario and SSB is pegged at 07 releases, but there also needs to more than those games and new and interesting games from 3rd parties.

There is a caveat: The price of PS3 and launching right alongside the PS3 means the Nintendo won't be in the position of having to absolutely deliver in its 1st year, which was the problem it faced with both the GameCube and N64 when both console's 1st year post launch faced a PlayStation running its 2nd year. They have a bit more breathing room, especially in Japan.

Just my thoughts.

Actually, it's ONLY in Japan, not especially. Right now Nintendo is not competing with Sony(which btw, I think it's funny you N-fans are finally admitting this after all that talk about how Nintendo WASN'T competing with Sony and MS :lol ). They're competing with Microsoft everywhere else except in Japan. And unlike Sony, MS does have a big installed base out currently, and it does have the most solid release schedule for 2007. 360 games will continue to eat up sales chart space both in the US and Europe, and the fact that that is happening, will be more damaging to both Sony and Nintendo more than anything else. The fact that there will be so much 360 software sold, so many games, so many gamers playing and talking about these games, has created and will continue to create the best and biggest buzz of them all....one that unlike Dr Phil, launch media will not fade like a one night stand. One that will constantly be there. Like a nagging wife.

 

[Dalthien]

No... 3.8 million (Source)

The Wii is at 491k

You still think the Wii will outsell the 360 by March?

edit: unless those numbers are wrong...

Yeah, that number is wrong. That story was retracted shortly after it was posted. The X360 is at 3.4 million in the US through November. In any case, it will be difficult for the Wii to overtake the X360 in the US in 2007, but I expect the Wii to fairly easily overtake the X360 worldwide next year. It will likely be within a million or so of the X360 in Europe by the end of this year, and it is already ahead of the X360 in Japan after 2 days on the market.

 

[Odysseus]

Well I was going by November NPDs, looks like that is a press release from December 8th. Not sure how that coincides.

Either way, I think it will indeed be difficult for the Wii to overtake the 360 before March. Let me think about it for a bit.

Just go ahead and note that it isn't happening anytime soon. In fact, even if it turned out that that Microsoft sold their last 360 on the last November NPD reporting day, it would take Nintendo until late next year just to get to where Microsoft is right now.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Microsoft has Eternal Sonata, Infinite Undiscovery, Lost Odyssey, Kingdom Underfire, Cry On, and Magna Carta 2 headed the X360's way. Not to mention Lost Planet next month.



I wouldn't be surprised if it cuts out 10-15% marketshare over there.

I can think of a recent system that had Tales, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, Metal Gear Solid, Pokémon, Super Smash Bros., Mario, and Zelda games that had about that much marketshare.

 

[Karma Kramer]

Yeah, that number is wrong. That story was retracted shortly after it was posted. The X360 is at 3.4 million in the US through November. In any case, it will be difficult for the Wii to overtake the X360 in the US in 2007, but I expect the Wii to fairly easily overtake the X360 worldwide next year. It will likely be within a million or so of the X360 in Europe by the end of the this year, and it is already ahead of the X360 in Japan after 2 days on the market.

Ah okay... must have missed the new report. [been having power-outages in my area : ( ]

---

To be honest... I think the Wii will do really well and perhaps take 1st place world-wide. For some reason I think the reason the Gamecube did so bad was image. The Wii seems to have a really positive image and I think that image will attract attention.

Gamecube certainly was not the cool console to own last generation. Though it will be interesting how it preforms without the traditional Madden and GTA4.

The Wii is a big mystery to me. It could do anything.

 

[smallsoft]

It's funny because after it's all said and done, a puppy simulator turned out to be a bigger system seller than Gears of War.

GoW really didn't spike 360 hardware sales all that much.

That's part of the problem with GAF. When they're asking "where's the new franchise?", only an big-time action-adventure game or something apparently qualifies. Meanwhile Nintendo releases some small game that was off most people's radars here and it changes the market.

You still haven't mentioned a solid line-up of new innovative non-gamer IPs via nintendo or the industry.

What have you mentioned so far, Wii-aerobics????

 

[PantherLotus]

Just go ahead and note that it isn't happening anytime soon. In fact, even if it turned out that that Microsoft sold their last 360 on the last November NPD reporting day, it would take Nintendo until late next year just to get to where Microsoft is right now.

Well, March might be stretching it, but part of my prediction is that Sony will ramp up PS3 production and that will cut into 360 sales like Perot cut into Bush's votes. Let's see how December goes.

 

[soundwave05]

The 360 is still only tracking marignally better than the XBox 1 did in North America. And it's a relative failure in Europe and Japan to date.

But lets overlook that and be super critical about the Wii ... a system that's probably the hottest item on the market right now bar none.

The 360 has been on market for a full year and hasn't impressed hardware sales-wise ... anywhere. The only reason they weren't no.3 in November NPD is because Nintendo and Sony were supply limited (on top of the fact that MS had the entire month).

This is supposed to be the new PS2? Really? The PS2 had no problem destroying the GC + XBox in Nov. 2001 ... the 360 was more like a boxer that got bailed out by the bell in comparsion. The main thing you'll hear about the 360 on these boards is a wash of excuses that "it's pretty good for a $400 console" ... nevermind the fact that there's a perfectly good $299.99 SKU availible (what, people with PS2s didn't buy memory cards?) and it has no direct competetion aside from the extremely supply restricted Sony.

 

[Odysseus]

Well, March might be stretching it, but part of my prediction is that Sony will ramp up PS3 production and that will cut into 360 sales like Perot cut into Bush's votes. Let's see how December goes.

Oh, I expect PS3 to catch and surpass 360 as well. When, don't know, but it will certainly happen barring a calamity. But it looks very unlikely that 360 will be passed next year, let alone by March. (Talking about the US, of course.)

And, yes, I'm saying Wii never does it.

 

[jimbo]

I would agree with your sentiment if the Wii didn't have so many games to fall back on, such as a) the virtual console b) things in motion implying much better third party support than usual (such as Square Enix).

Also let's not forget how strong the Nintendo name brand is right now- that alone can move a lot of hardware (just look at the demand right now for the PS3).

I am not saying that there isn't a chance the Wii could end up third in sales in America, but it certainly won't be due to a lack of available games that aren't Metroid/Mario/Zelda.

Wow. So VC and the assumptions that there will be better third party support which will in turn, turn out in SOME third party games, at some point later on down the road is the same as....hey who's getting Lost Planet in January?

WTF are some of you smoking? How much do you want to bet that most casual gamers who have heard of Wii have no idea you can even play VC games on Wii or even what VC means?:lol

And as far as "brand". This is the same argument used by Sony fans. It's all tired out.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Well, March might be stretching it, but part of my prediction is that Sony will ramp up PS3 production and that will cut into 360 sales like Perot cut into Bush's votes. Let's see how December goes.

December will probably see <300k in the US. I think it's a longshot that PS3 sales will really take off before the holidays next year. The 360 will see a price cut as well, and that's going to be a big factor when the price gap gets even wider. It will take the PS3 a LONG time to overcome the lead; which it probably will eventually.

 

[justchris]

OK, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume it will get the same amount of games as the GC at the absolute freakin' minimum. Agree or disagree? That, in conjunction with all the buzz that you said is meaningless, assures many more sales than the 'Cube. Again, I just don't see how it can do anything but much better.

Don't forget the virtual console. It may not seem like a big deal, but all those people buying Wii's, when they want a new game, can grab something off VC rather than going out and picking up a new system.

To be fair, that's about the extent of what the download service on any of the consoles will do. It will make people who already own the console think twice before going out and buying another console when they can grab a couple cheap games and wait for next month's releases.