soundwave05
Member
xabre said:
Where's the Cartman "bitter tears" picture when you need it? :lol
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Media Create Sales: 04 - 10 Dec (HOLY ****ING CRAP edition)
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
Where's the Cartman "bitter tears" picture when you need it? :lol
PhoenixDark
Banned
Odysseus said:
I agree, except for the last sentence. The Wii's problem is going to be staying relevent 3 year s down the road when PS3/Xbox 360 games start looking like MGS4/Halo 3/etc and the hardware price falls low enough to make the Wii price irrelevent. Also we must consider HD penetration, with 2009 being the sweet spot for that.
When the novelty wears off the Wii will be in trouble, especially if Nintendo doesn't support the system with good games on a consistant basis. And by good games I don't mean Nintendogs and such; not to say those games are bad, but I'm saying it's going to be important that Nintendo offers software that can challenge similar things on the PS3/360
soundwave05
Member
It's going to be a long and difficult next 5 years for Odysessus. My guess is he bails out of GAF by about next summer. Wasn't the novelty of the DS supposed to have worn off ... like last summer? :lol
I love this rationale.
I love this rationale.
Battersea Power Station
Member
Yeah, the problem is that at the level in which Sony is invested in the PS3, it has to really dominate the market. Even if Wii/PS3 split the market 50/50, I won't be convinced that Sony will make back their loss. Yes, I just pulled this statement out of nowhere, but it somehow doesn't feel unrealistic. I'd love to see a comprehensive study of the attach ratio Sony must achieve to be profitable with the PS3 (just the PS3).Odysseus said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
capslock said:
one might say I was a bit hyperbolic in that comment. The meaning is similar though.
Karma Kramer
Banned
PantherLotus said:To be fair, 360 had a year head start in Japan and lost 75% marketshare within 48 hours of the PS3 and Wii launches, while DS and PS2 continue to rule the land and Japanese spending cash. Its a tough argument to make that one game will turn around a whole year of poor-performance.
I mean, look:
The green part is with a whole freaking year. The white and black parts are one freaking week!
As long as Microsoft does "okay" against the PS3 then I think thats all Microsoft needs. Japanese developers are currently looking towards NA and Europe for software sales because of the current decline in console sales in Japan.
If Microsoft continues to lead in NA and puts up solid software sale numbers in Japan (DoA XV2, Blue Dragon) then I think many Japanese developers (square-enix, konami) will be more open to developing for the Xbox 360.
soundwave05
Member
Odysseus said:
If the DS rollercoaster made you queasy, get ready Odssesus, this next one will be even worse for you. :lol
People clinging to the novelty excuse (the same one they swore about the DS) are going to be in for a rude awakening. The games next year for the Wii are only going to get better and more diverse, the third party support is only going to get better, and the system is only going to get cheaper.
Sony will still be stuck at $500, Microsoft still can't sell to anyone outside of the Halo auidence in North America en masse.
GhaleonEB said:
Struggle to make it back to GameCube numbers in the US, for one. I expect it to be last in the NPD charts as soon as Sony gets PS3 supply issues ironed out.
soundwave05 said:
And I've also said for months that the GBA did not mean anything for GameCube. DS's performance is not indicative of anything for Wii. It has to win its own wars.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Yamauchi said:
Which he did with brilliance.
It takes a master tactician and businessperson to bring a company into profitability and to become market leader. It takes a genius to stay market leader.
He might have built the Nintendo empire, but it was on the back of Miyamoto's creative genius. And it was Yamauchi himself that the increasing ineptitude of the company (N64-GC era) can be blamed for.
I respect him for what he did with a card company, but that doesn't absolve him of not innovating when he needed to most.
GhaleonEB said:
This is probably the best theory I can think of and I too have been thinking of this. People who are saying that Blue Dragon will turn things around for the 360 in Japan are, to a certain extent, right.
People who are saying that this is just a blip and 360 sales will quickly return to normal levels, are to a certain extent, right as well.
The truth is, as in a lot of instances, somewhere in the middle. With any other system that sells 200k-500k units a month hardware spikes such as these caused by good games are invisible in the overall picture. But because the 360 has been selling so poorly, 2-4k a week, it may just be the best system to witness the ONGOING sales spikes caused by game releases.
While the 360 has been selling poorly in Japan, it does find itself in a vary favorable position: It actually has a good 2007 release schedule of promising games. Blue Dragon is just the begining. While there's obviously a significant difference of taste and interest in the 360 in Japan, one thing I truly believe: Quality games will be recognized no matter where in the world. While I believe some of the 360 games coming out will completely fall below most gamers' radar in Japan, most of them WILL make SOME kind of an impact which will cause SOME kind of a sale spike.
So while I don't believe BD will save the 360 in Japan, I do believe it did ressurect it, and set it up quite nicely for other games in the future to continue to do the same. Therefore I expect both sides of the argument to happen. 360 will fall back down. However LP will spike it again. It will fall back down again. But Viva and GOW might spike it back up again. And so on and so on, until all promising games such as Trusty Bell, Lost Oddyssey, Infinite Undiscovery, etc take their turn. Because of this up and down effect I also expect 360 sales to maintain a higher weekly sales number. Deffinitely nowhere near 30k, but not <2k either.
soundwave05
Member
Odysseus said:
First of all, the DS is not the GBA. It's taken off only after Nintendo delivered "non-gamer" content. The DS didn't need Pokemon or even Mario, it was a success because Nintendo's philosophy.
Second of all, the competetion is not nearly as tough for Nintendo this time. Sony is going to be stuck in $400-$500 territory for a long time. MS ... Nintendo will take a battle with MS over Sony anytime. MS has their core audience in North America, but haven't been able to break past it.
The best bet IMO that Sony and MS have is to copy the Nintendo controller ASAP. The longer they wait to copy it, the more damage they will take.
TekunoRobby
Tag of Excellence
I just hope we get more awesome RPGs out of the 360's desperate situation. MS Japan is finally doing something right for a change.
PhoenixDark said:
We already have a real world example of this line of thinking being completely dismissed, and that's the DS.
It's the power-slut philosophy, 'unit A is more powerful than unit B, therefore unit A will see greater success'. Your argument is wholly simplistic and has been done to death, the DS proved it utterly flawed and Wii will most likely do the same thing.
I will say this for Odysseus, the Wii doesn't have the Western Devs on board. I was at GDC and Develop in England these past few months, not a peep from anybody about the Wii. Everyone was too busy eye-humping Gears of War.
I predict that the sales will trail off when the machines is in ample supply and the software drought kicks in. Atleast in NA.
I predict that the sales will trail off when the machines is in ample supply and the software drought kicks in. Atleast in NA.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
PantherLotus said:
Yamauchi wanted the N64 to have CD. Miyamoto demanded carts.
Yamauchi wanted the GC to go "toe-to-toe" with PS2 in terms of features (DVD playback, etc). Board of directors shut him down.
soundwave05
Member
Actually Mr. Miyamoto was adament about using cartridges and nixing CD-ROMs. I think he played a pretty big role in that decision. Yamauchi was also skpetical of the GameCube even before it was released.
I think the Wii, like DS will have a "dry period" in the US market. The DS started in America a-blazing (like Wii) and then for 6-odd months hardware sales were pretty flat (Jan-Oct 05) and stayed that way until the killer software was released. I guess it all depends on when they get around to delivering MP3, Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros, etc.
Well that wasnt really relevant but a couple of people have mentioned similar things...
Well that wasnt really relevant but a couple of people have mentioned similar things...
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Karma Kramer said:
This is what you should be watching in the US, then:
After one week in the US, MS gave up 20% of its market share to Sony and Nintendo. How much more will it lose in December?
Well that sir is the question we all want to know.
soundwave05
Member
:lol Square-Enix looks at REAL userbase, not the crap the 360 has in Japan.
That's like thinking Paris Hilton is going to be impressed with some guy driving a Honda Civic.
That's like thinking Paris Hilton is going to be impressed with some guy driving a Honda Civic.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
*I'll just drop the Yamuchi argument* I have a lot to learn about him, it seems.
Karma Kramer
Banned
PantherLotus said:This is what you should be watching in the US, then:
After one week in the US, MS gave up 25% of its market share to Sony and Nintendo. How much more will it lose in December?
Well that sir is the question we all want to know.
Launch numbers are always going to be insane. If Microsoft had more units at launch they would have sold. The thing to look for is how the Wii and PS3 sell montly in 2007.
soundwave05
Member
smallsoft said:
Agreed on that, but I don't think this is going to happen. The sales of Wii Sports + all the DS stuff ... you know they have a shit ton of "wider appealling" stuff coming for the Wii next year.
Miyamoto is saying they want to do a MySpace type thing for the Mii Channel. Wii Aerobics/Fitness is in development. Wii Music as well. If you're thinking Nintendo is going to "forget" this kind of stuff ... lol.
PantherLotus said:This is what you should be watching in the US, then:
After one week in the US, MS gave up 20% of its market share to Sony and Nintendo. How much more will it lose in December?
Well that sir is the question we all want to know.
I am sorry this too stupid for words. No one expected MS to retain %100 NA marketshare, so phrasing "how much more marketshare will MS lose?" is simply moronic. Of course they are going to lose marketshare when their competitors finally release their products. So stop trying to dramaticize the whole event.
soundwave05 said:
The DS took off in Japan with ridiculous non-games. It was neck and neck with PSP in the US (and presumably elsewhere) until NSMB and the DS Lite. Or do we not remember?
As for Sony and MS needing to copy Nintendo... oy. If I'm so completely wrong and MS and Sony bring out Wiimote clones, then I'll eat that crow and bid this hobby farewell.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Karma Kramer said:
If Sony would have had more launch units they would have sold.
If Nintendo would have had more launch units they would have sold.
This isn't about woulda, or coulda, or shoulda, or even the ethereal "if," this is about actualities. This is about what each company can produce and sell as quickly as possible while capitalizing on the failures of its competitors.
And I don't think that MS has a large enough head start to be comfortable with its market share in ANY territory right now. Obviously Japan, but also the US and PAL.
Karma Kramer
Banned
soundwave05 said:
And the real userbase says ... Xbox 360 > Wii > PS3
(worldwide)
Sure Japan is a big factor... but if the PS3 can't get units out, then by the time FXIII comes out it really doesn't have that much room to sell alot. Porting the game to the 360 would probably be a very smart finacial mood... and lets face it (DQIX) they aren't scared about changing platforms.
I think you may be overstating the decline of Nintendo in the N64/GC era. Yeah, Nintendo's marketshare fell by a lot, but their profitability never waned, and in fact, Nintendo has made just as much money (and been far more consistent with their annual profits) as Sony's gaming division has over the past 10 years. Nintendo's goals have always been maximizing profits. And they have not faltered in that goal at all since the dawn of the NES. So, any marketshare failures which you are ascribing to him really have very little to do with the business success of Nintendo.PantherLotus said:
soundwave05
Member
GhaleonEB said:
Why's the XBox 360 get a break then? 500k in November in North America is nothing to be wowwed with either.
MS hasn't proven they can sell to anyone but their narrow demographic. They're no Sony and the XBox is no Playstation. It's time to stop giving them leeway just because "Gears of War is purdy" ... the market by and large should be supporting that system a hell of a lot more if it's the supposed market-monster/PS2 challenger that GAF is trying to hype it up to be.
As Mr. T would call it: paper champion.
soundwave05 said:
Wii Aerobics sound interesting, possible huge seller right there. But as for the Mii channels and allt he other stuff, no one is getting a Wii for its non-gaming features. The Mii channel and all that is just icing on the cake really.
As for their new killer IPs? What do they have?
Project Hammer
Day Of Crisis
Ping Pong????
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
smallsoft said:
You new around here? That's what we do, SHMUCK (TM). We take a small sample of data and claim doom and gloom for one company or another. If you don't like that shit than GTFO. ITS A SALES THREAD.
The truth is that MS should expect to see its next-gen lead completely lost by March, if not sooner. In every territory.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
PantherLotus said:
Nobody gave a damn about Metal Gear untl the PS1, it hadn't seen a new entry since the NES. And it's not even one of the top 20 franchises in Japan, nevermind top 3.
I'll grant you that the N64 was stupid in general, though.
soundwave05
Member
smallsoft said:
Mii Channel + MySpace features + possibly some Sims type stuff = bigger than the Elvis.
That's the one thing to me that just screams out the most potential on the Wii by far.
Battersea Power Station
Member
But how is that even debatable? Like how? What could possibly happen, outside of some crazy and disastrous Wiimote accident, that can negate all the goodwill Nintendo has ALREADY built with the Wii brand amongst people like Dr. Phil's audience and others who have never touched video games before? How? How do you rationalize it in your head? It just makes no sense. I can see if you're not a fan of it and you don't want it to happen, but to suggest that the Wii will sell to a narrow demographic like the 'Cube relatively did just seems to be based on nothing.Odysseus said:
PantherLotus said:
Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa
You built a time machine....
out of a DeLorean?
I mean, you expect Wii to pass Xbox 360 in the United States of America as soon as March of 2007? Did I just read that right?
Battersea Power Station said:
All those non-gaming moms and grandmas watching daytime talk television still need to go out and spend $250 on gaming hardware they'll never actually use. You may expect that to happen, but I certainly do not. Goodwill, free pub or not. But, again, we'll see soon enough.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
LiveFromKyoto said:
Yeah, I was making a stupid argument and I am now distancing myself from that.
soundwave05
Member
Odysseus said:
The Wii has better press/marketing/mindshare in a few weeks than the GameCube ever got in its lifetime. Lets face it, there's one system that the mainstream is talking about right now, and it ain't the PS3 or 360.
The competetion is also softer this time out. Would I rather face a 20 million PS2 with an installed base and MGS2, GTA3, FFX, etc. exclusive? Or a 360 that's doing ho-hum numbers and blew most of its headstart because of shortages with little userbase in Europe and Japan? And Sony stuck in the $500-$600 range?
This is a great situation for Nintendo.
Looks like Sega's shipment of Love and Berry exceeded 1 Million. Looks like Sega's expecting sales to build up over the weeks.
http://www.dengekionline.com/data/news/2006/12/14/c5cf0fc9e2c84d81736a8cf3e423a765.html
http://www.dengekionline.com/data/news/2006/12/14/c5cf0fc9e2c84d81736a8cf3e423a765.html