Media Create Sales: 09/08 - 09/14
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
Rocksteady33 said:
The chart is in this pdf file for Namco-Bandai's projections for 2008. I don't know how to copy and paste the image itself.
http://www.bandainamco.co.jp/ir/presentation/pdf/20080509_1.pdf
The chart does say they expect sales of 500,000 units for Tales of Vesperia this year in Japan, America and Asia.
kame-sennin
Member
Jokeropia said:
This is a good point. It'll be interesting to see what happens going into next year.
JoshuaJSlone said:Hopefully I am close enough.
Ya know, I actually checked your name to make sure I spelled it right. This is what happens when I post late at night.
JoshuaJSlone said:
You're so on the ball, thanks for all the info. Factoring in these charts and all the mitigating factors, I see that Wii isn't doing much worse than PS2. However, I'm still surprised that Wii isn't doing much better considering the expanded audience. I also think handheld devices are a factor and will continue to be one. It'll be interesting to see what happens as third party support grows in Japan. Up till now, Wii has sold on the strength of a few games. But most leading consoles, especially PS1 and PS2 sold well do to their large libraries. It's definitely possible, as someone else mentioned, that Wii is slowly selling to the expanded audience, but is only getting sales from the core during new software launches.
Phife Dawg
Member
Yeah, bear in mind though that we're in a very slow period. The cut-off for the Top 10 is at 13k. Famitsu has its No. 30 at around 3k.jakncoke said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
So no, jimbo did not make any debatable assertions? Great. Glad we can move on.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
jimbo said:
I think I found the offending post.
THIS IS PATENTLY WRONG. SALES DON'T WORK LIKE THAT JIMBO.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Final? Maybe by the 2013 Top 500.JavyOO7 said:
PantherLotus said:
Hey Panther I was really starting to like you. I thought we had a thing going there man. Ah well, it was fun while it lasted.
So I guess I need to remind you of your post from last week?
:lol Yeah? I would have been a richer man and laughed all the way to the bank. I'm ok with just the laughing though.PantherLotus said:
Honestly, with you handling the charts I figured you would have noticed by now the 360 trend that has been going on. I was surprised when you made that prediction.
Look believe me when I say, I know what it feels like to go against the grain, especially in this tough forum. You lose popularity, you get personally insulted(which you seem to like taking a part of yourself), you risk pissing off people....but really there's nothing wrong with pointing out things that may not make everyone happy to hear .
Look at your charts. Pay attention to what was happening prior to ToV. Factor in the price drop. The games that just got released. Factor in the holiday season, The Last Remnant and the upcoming SO4, plus the momentum and positive publicity and believe me.....
you will come to the same conclusion. That is how sales work: Price, demand, interest, publicity, holiday season competition(or lack off) all help increase videogame sales. The 360 has all of those things going for it right now.
This isn't an accident. I am not surprised with these results. Everyone should have been able to see this coming about a month ago.
But no this is just typical MC. The 360 has to suck in Japan or else we don't know how to handle the situation.
.
Seriously, you should take your own advice. Predicting the norm takes no skill and is boring. Predicting changes takes guts and balls, and I understand not everyone likes that because there is always the posibility of being WRONG and having people point it out. You also rarely get any credit when you do predict right. But that's how the world revolves, and me? I wouldn't have it any other way.
Also if there's one thing I learned is that sales data, and charts of the past year give you a good idea of what happened IN THE PAST, and while they can paint a general picture, such as where the lull period starts and how sales increase over the holidays....they do NOT predict the future.
If they did, we would never have meltdowns. What's going on NOW in the industry and in the near future, ALONG with previous data does give you a great guessing tool. But previous history alone is not enough. There are many factors that need to be accounted for at ANY point in time. That's why you can't even possibly put your finger on next week's hardware results. Believe me, I don't pull my guesses out of my ass and they are not based on optimism alone. I look at the same stuff you do, and I also look at what's happening.
But that's what I love about GAF. Sometimes the crowd in here get so hard headed and get stuck in that follower mentality, that it's always fun being around for weeks like this.
Liabe Brave
Member
Actually, PantherLotus has been within a few percentage points on 360 almost every week he's made the prediction, which I believe has been for most of the year. That he was way off this week doesn't magically erase history. There's a difference between sticking bravely to your guns against received wisdom, and sticking bravely to your guns against common sense and the weight of historical evidence.jimbo said:
The PS3 is a failure in Japan. If the current perfect storm the 360 is experiencing--the best sustained Japanese-focused lineup it's ever had, a pricedrop, plenty of buzz--ends up tripling their weekly sales baseline...they will still be behind PS3 (and maybe even the eight-year-old PS2). That's the magnitude of the 360's utter, abject loss. I'm very happy about their relative success, but still completely convinced of their absolute failure. I didn't wish it on them, but I don't think it can be wished away, as you seem to want.
Mr Killemgood
Member
Panther's prediction of 5-6k could only happen if the X360 is massively sold out across Japan this week.
Oh, and what did he predict that HW would be this week for the X360? I called X360>Wii last week
Panther, lets look at your argument:
1. Do you realize that your giving HUGE ranges for the consoles, so your obviously going to be right most of the time? I could say "DS = 40-65k" and be right 90% of the time. That doesn't mean, however, that trends aren't going on to change YOY changes and retention stats.
2. Compare last year to this year for the X360:
Notice in late June, there's an actual trend upwards versus every other year the system's been on market? Usually that's a sign that somethings different - therefore numbers have reason to be higher. Look at the PSP after Crisis Core last year. Did that fit your model?
Although you do very good work, and I'm appreciative of it, you are wrong about the X360's trending. What are you basing 5-6k off of? What past trend? ToV bump was <7k the week after with the system being sold out country wide. Even after the last price cut + AC6, it still was just at 6k, even though the X360 sold 11,000 LESS units vs. this bump...Why such a larger dropoff? Even if it followed the ToV dropoff (sellout status countrywide), it should still manage 8,400 units or more. Personally, I'd say 12,000-15,000 is more likely.
Oh, and what did he predict that HW would be this week for the X360? I called X360>Wii last week
Panther, lets look at your argument:
1. Do you realize that your giving HUGE ranges for the consoles, so your obviously going to be right most of the time? I could say "DS = 40-65k" and be right 90% of the time. That doesn't mean, however, that trends aren't going on to change YOY changes and retention stats.
2. Compare last year to this year for the X360:
Notice in late June, there's an actual trend upwards versus every other year the system's been on market? Usually that's a sign that somethings different - therefore numbers have reason to be higher. Look at the PSP after Crisis Core last year. Did that fit your model?
Although you do very good work, and I'm appreciative of it, you are wrong about the X360's trending. What are you basing 5-6k off of? What past trend? ToV bump was <7k the week after with the system being sold out country wide. Even after the last price cut + AC6, it still was just at 6k, even though the X360 sold 11,000 LESS units vs. this bump...Why such a larger dropoff? Even if it followed the ToV dropoff (sellout status countrywide), it should still manage 8,400 units or more. Personally, I'd say 12,000-15,000 is more likely.
rykomatsu
Member
Mr Killemgood said:
Still sold out as of last night's posting (which isn't in the famitsu date range) at major and niche retailers for 2 of 3 skus.
Places that have them are charging old prices atm...(ie. scamazon marketplace dealers)
edit: just checked again....amazon (not marketplace) appears to have 1 60gb unit in stock atm so...might have restocked and sold out overnight since last night...
Revelations
Banned
Hmm Microsoft only restocked by 30k units? That dosn't seem right at all...rykomatsu said:
BishopLamont
Banned
Jimbo where are you getting the sales expectations for ToV? 150k for Japan and 500k WW. You have sauce?
rykomatsu
Member
BishopLamont said:
500k ww was something i said
i thought i saw it in a Namco group press release/prospectus but i could be wrong about that. I could have sworn it was posted on gaf a while back w/ expected sales of SC4 and ToV and a multitude of a few other games earlier this year.
haven't had time to look for it today yet.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Funny thing is, I could make that prediction 52 times this year and be right 49 of them. How many times have you ever been right about the 360 magically rising from the grave of horrible sales into the wonderous land of almost dead?
Get some freaking perspective. This is a momentary blip on the radar, moreover, the only reason anybody cares to point out your wrongness (beyond the occasional troll) is because you are so gleeful in your ignorant proclamations. Nothing has changed. 360 had an amazing week, they've had slightly higher sales for several weeks (slightly higher being 5k instead of 2.5k), but it won't start selling more than 10k per week for a period of time for the rest of its life.
Stop making ridiculous child-like assertions, and you'll stop getting smacked down like the abused puppy that you are. It's fucking tired. EVERY TIME the 360 sells more than 5k, here you come, running down that hill of sadness to proclaim that the 360 IS BACK!!!
No its not. It was never here. It had a good week.
p.s. The next person that points out my prediction being massively off (and it definitely was) should point out my other 98 predictions this year. It's not hard to make predictions when you're looking at history vs. momentum.
Get some freaking perspective. This is a momentary blip on the radar, moreover, the only reason anybody cares to point out your wrongness (beyond the occasional troll) is because you are so gleeful in your ignorant proclamations. Nothing has changed. 360 had an amazing week, they've had slightly higher sales for several weeks (slightly higher being 5k instead of 2.5k), but it won't start selling more than 10k per week for a period of time for the rest of its life.
Stop making ridiculous child-like assertions, and you'll stop getting smacked down like the abused puppy that you are. It's fucking tired. EVERY TIME the 360 sells more than 5k, here you come, running down that hill of sadness to proclaim that the 360 IS BACK!!!
No its not. It was never here. It had a good week.
p.s. The next person that points out my prediction being massively off (and it definitely was) should point out my other 98 predictions this year. It's not hard to make predictions when you're looking at history vs. momentum.
Mr Killemgood said:Panther's prediction of 5-6k could only happen if the X360 is massively sold out across Japan this week.
Oh, and what did he predict that HW would be this week for the X360? I called X360>Wii last week
That WAS his prediction for this week.:lol That's what I am saying. With all the evidence staring him in the face he completely ignored it all. WTF is the point of even tracking if you aren't going to call it?
Mr Killemgood said:
Of course he's seen it. That's exactly what I have been watching too and been saying all along. The 360's been on the rise since Gundam, way before ToV. I posted a chart awhile back showing that it was on track to catch the PS3 WITHOUT ToV. I At that rate it looked to happen in just 2 more weeks but ToV hit and then the shortage before we could see that possibly happening. It was just easier for people to chalk it all up as early purchases in anticipation of ToV, even though we have actually never seen that happen for A MONTH in advance. Pre-orders yes. But it's been proven time and time again that people buy stuff on release date, not prior. There was a ToV bump, now we saw a re-stock/ToV/IU/price drop bump, but what you will see when the dust settles is an increase in AVERAGE weekly sales.
And anyone that isn't expecting this have their heads stuck way too far up their asses to comprehend that the 360 CAN do that even in Japan, and it will.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Ok, you have a big internet pair. Put 'em on the table and make a specific statement.
How much per week average will the 360 sell until next April?
Because it includes the end-of-year sales, I'll say 5.8k, and I think that's still a thousand too high.
How much per week average will the 360 sell until next April?
Because it includes the end-of-year sales, I'll say 5.8k, and I think that's still a thousand too high.
Phife Dawg
Member
Was already answered a few posts back, it's 500k for fiscal 2008 in JP/NA/EU:BishopLamont said:
909er said:
As for the 150k for Japan expectation, I haven't seen it before nor did jimbo answer the questions regarding the source of that expectation. It may be in the pdf but although I have asian characters installed it comes up as a garbled mess. But there was a thread on GAF about it too.
imho, the reality of the Microsoft situation is that, while not earth-shattering, they were at least noticed.
The popular theory had become "no matter what Microsoft does, the Japanese consumer is apathetic to the brand."
This at least shows that the Japanese gaming enthusiasts are still somewhat paying attention, and are capable of responding (with limited capacity) if the box in question manages to provide experiences they are interested in.
It's an encouraging message to the company, if not a record-breaking reception.
The real gain isn't in the actual marketshare or unit sales, but in the potential for future growth.
That growth will never be enough to "save" the Xbox360 in Japan, but it opens a door for future possibilities with the Xbox project in entirety.
Down the road, it's now possible to see how future versions of the machine can grow and gain marketshare, whereas the popular wisdom had previously dictated that their only real option was to abandon Japan entirely.
It's probably the worst sort of "win" imaginable, but it's still a positive reinforcement.
My two cents.
The popular theory had become "no matter what Microsoft does, the Japanese consumer is apathetic to the brand."
This at least shows that the Japanese gaming enthusiasts are still somewhat paying attention, and are capable of responding (with limited capacity) if the box in question manages to provide experiences they are interested in.
It's an encouraging message to the company, if not a record-breaking reception.
The real gain isn't in the actual marketshare or unit sales, but in the potential for future growth.
That growth will never be enough to "save" the Xbox360 in Japan, but it opens a door for future possibilities with the Xbox project in entirety.
Down the road, it's now possible to see how future versions of the machine can grow and gain marketshare, whereas the popular wisdom had previously dictated that their only real option was to abandon Japan entirely.
It's probably the worst sort of "win" imaginable, but it's still a positive reinforcement.
My two cents.
PantherLotus said:
I did. I called it last week when I said the 360 would beat the PS3 and possibly the Wii. When, in response to an explanation for my prediction I stated: "if ToV can sell 24k I sure as heck expect all of these factors to do better than just that one game."
Also it's impossible to know what the heck the 360 is going to average in April of next year. You are taking a shot in the dark, once again, and I would love to follow your logic.
How are you coming up with that?
Because I don't believe there's a way to pin-point a specific number. It's hard enough trying to do it from one week to the next, let alone trying to figure out what all these factors add up to and contribute to its normal sales.
But I will say this:
The 360 will NOT go back to averaging 2-3k a week any time soon, with the exception of shortages, or something drastic like MS pulling support.
It will very likely outsell the PS3 this month, baring shortages.
It will continue to give it competition at the PS3's CURRENT sales level for the remainder of the year, and unless PS3 sales pick up, it will continue to outsell it weekly on a more regular basis.
It will have a so-so October but a strong November and especially the week of TLR, as long as the game gets good reviews.
TLR will help continue its momentum as long as the PS3 version's released date IS NOT announced before, or immediately after the game's release which would take away from its impact.
Pending good reviews(read at least as good as IU and ToV), I predict TLR will have a stronger first week than both ToV and IU, and will sell better in the west.
Oh and I also predict it will cross 1 million units BEFORE SO4 hits. It will be knocking on its door come January 1st 2008.
Oh and the 360 will continue to increase its YoY totals. It just surpassed what it did last year at this point with this week and it will finish out even stronger. I forsee this trend continuing next year and the year following that(SOMETHING I SAID WAAAAAAAAAAAY back after it launched in Japan, when I also stated it would surpass the original Xbox in HALF the time and I was one of the few people that believed it was possible for it to pull it off...I won't forget that because it was because of that argument that basically got me banned for a month)
Oh and you want to know HOW and WHY I based most of my predictions, and some of them so far in advance with such confidence? It had nothing to do with numbers, charts or tracking. I just sincerely believed that the Japanese were a lot less apathetic than the Media Create GAF posters. I went against the major consensus in this forum because most of you guys gave it a much lower chance of succeeding even with great games than what I believed the Japanese market would. It was really that simple.
Liabe Brave
Member
And, as I pointed out, that increase could be 300% and they would still likely be in last place every week, even against the aging PS2 (though, of course, individual big releases unmatched on other systems could provide spikes). It's sad but true: a massive, complete turnaround in Japan would still leave Microsoft lagging behind the moneysink failure that is the PS3.jimbo said:
The problem really isn't with your expectations (though I believe those may be too optimistic), but with the triumphalist tone you couch them in. If a rise from "meaningless" to "complete and utter failure" is what you'd like to cheerlead, be prepared for people to mock your rah-rah enthusiasm. They're not making fun of the system or the games--or even, necessarily, your projections.
BishopLamont
Banned
So unicorns and rainbows ey? Yeah that about wraps it up.jimbo said:
Liabe Brave said:
If this "rise from mediocracy" didn't bother some people, my statements would have simply been ignored and there wouldn't have been a big deal about it. If not, I don't see what the problem is with all this. For the sake of the argument let's say the 360 will remain in a distant 3rd place. All I care to see is make a niche for itself and continue to have games that sell over 100k, and continued Japanese third party support. Because in the end, that's what I really care about. Continued Japanese third party support. To me, personally, it selling 1.5-2 million LTD would constitute MS finally being able to break into a tough Japanese market, and that many would argue is a success. It assures that when the successor of the 360 hits over there, it will have a user base to launch to, and actually have a chance at making a run for it. The 360 in Japan is the equivalent of the Xbox in the US. The only difference is the Xbox didn't also have the task of having to wipe out a previous failure and THEN turn things around. It built on what momentum the Xbox had. The 360 has the chance of gaining credibility from the Japanese for future consoles in the same way.
What I don't understand is why being excited and celebrating decent sales for this console in Japan is still such a NO-NO on GAF.
PS: I would like to discuss with you what "DISTANT" means to me, but I think that may be way too much for this forum to take in one week if I start pointint it out. I'll wait until some people get accustomed to the 360 outselling the PS3 over there on a more regular basis.
whats this?BishopLamont
Banned
I hope MC has Wii > 360 just to make jimbo a sad panda.
schuelma said:
Let's be clear about something. I am not predicting gangbuster 360 sales when I say that. I am going off of the PS3's lackluster performance and expecting that to continue. The only thing I see changing that is a price drop from Sony or if LBP turns out to be a run-away hit. And I see the 360 has the potential to compete with 8-12k per week sales at least a few more times this year.
It's based on the simple principle that the 360 is enjoying positive momentum while the PS3 is seeing negative momentum, or a downward slump. The 360 had a number of factors that made that happen. The PS3 will need a similar factor(s) to turn its momentum around also. And that would be LBP and price drop.
BishopLamont said:
Hey I am not celebrating the 360 over the Wii just yet. I stated that about 3 pages back. Famitsu and MC have been drastically different when it comes to the Wii, so I didn't get my hopes up. Notice how I am not touching that with a 10 foot pole ...................yet.
Nice try with the bait though.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
No, you specifically said "the days of 2k weeks ARE OVER."
I'm asking you to state what approximately you think the 360 will be at, and why is it so hard for you make specific statements?
Direct:
"How much will the 360 average for the next 6 months?"
Answer:
Your turn.
I'm asking you to state what approximately you think the 360 will be at, and why is it so hard for you make specific statements?
Direct:
"How much will the 360 average for the next 6 months?"
Answer:
Your turn.
Liabe Brave
Member
No. If it sells two-million-plus lifetime--that'd mean doubling its sales from here on out, and not being replaced until late 2011--then it will have achieved only about 20% of what Xbox did in the U.S. (adjusting for population and time on market). The 360's successor will be launched in Japan, but I don't think a lucrative market will be the primary reason. This year will be a record one for 360 in Japan...and about equal to March's U.S. sales.jimbo said:
It's not the celebration people are taking issue with. It's either your very optimistic projections into the future (with which they disagree), or the apparent tone of self-aggrandizing "I am a persecuted iconoclast, immune to your pathetic groupthink!".jimbo said:
PantherLotus said:
Ok fine. I won't just state a number. I'll even try to walk you through it.
You have this week which I still don't know how to judge it based on there being reports of the console STILL not re-stocked in the country. Was this the highest it can do? Is it possible it can do higher next week? Or is it ready to begin its decline? I have no idea, but they all have to be taken, or not taken into consideration. I would at least like to know where it settles after the shortage situation and price drop before I could even begin making an educated guess at it. Before you can factor in spikes, and holiday increase you have to have an average weekly starting point.
Over the past month that has been completely washed away. It was at 5k per week prior to ToV but then ToV hit, and we never got a chance to see if it would have continued. Then you had a sell out. Then you had a price drop.
Today, the best I feel comfortable predicting is that it WON'T be lower than 5k a week 6 months from now, and factoring in a 30% increase in the sales of consoles(30% price drop) I would even say no lower than 7k.
But here I will go a bit further than that just for you for THIS YEAR ONLY. I will start off with predicting an average increase of 30% from the price drop over its previous average weekly sales(5k), or say 7-8k units per week.
If these numbers stand on MC, then I expect it to do another 25-35k the week of TLR and probably another +5k-10k(the downward side of the spike) the week after that, for a total of 30-45k from TLR. There are 15 weeks left until the end of the year so if we divide the spike up we are looking an additional 2-3k per week.
So that puts it between 9-11k, IF the game turns out good of course, as I stated earlier. So an average of 10k per week.
In 2007, its average sales for the first 11 months was 19,000 and in December 43,000. So I can go ahead and conservatively say Dec offers a 150% 200% increase. or in this case between 15-20k per week. Well take the average of that and call it an additional 7.5k per week in December or a total of 33k additional units. Divided by 15 weeks, comes to roughly 2k units per week.
Adding that to the previous number, comes to 12k per week for the remainder of the year. I feel good with that estimate.
Having stated all that, I still need to know what the heck the situation is currently in Japan, but that should get you started.
PS: If you add that to the current LTD including the Famitsu numbers you come out with roughly 851k LTD by the end of the year. Personally I feel it can get a lot closer to 1 million, and it will end up with over 900k units by the end of the year. It will be up to MS and their marketing push and how bad they want that headline come January first to come up with the extra 100k or so.
Liabe Brave said:
Wow you completely missed my point. It wasn't a numerical comparison.
I'm talking about momentum. The Xbox's late life momentum and strong showing in the US is what allowed consumers to have faith in the 360 when it launched. The Xbox's poor momentum and utter failure is what destroyed the 360's chances in Japan from DAY 1.
If the 360 does 2 million, you are right, it would mean doubling its sales from here on out, and not be replaced until 2011 which seems about right. It would also mean a sizeable fan base to have a decent launch, and momentum going into next generation.
I am not talking about numbers at all.
jimbo said:
I think this is a pretty ambitious statement. You are basically saying that by early 09, 360 sales will have effectively quadrupled and will be roughly comparable every week to PS3 sales. Who knows, you may be right, but IMO we need a lot more data before making these type of predictions.
I remember last holiday when PS3 had the temporary bump and then looked like it might maintain things in January. The bottom fell out again and weekly sales are as low or lower than ever.
schuelma said:
Quadruple from what? Because they were 5k before ToV. . And that would mean NO effect whatsoever from the price drop and recent events. I am banking my entire prediction on these events.
Jan/2008 19,600
Feb/2008 10,100
Mar/2008 9,000
Average 2,979 per week So that would only be a little more than double even using early 08 numbers.
Jan/2007 47,800
Feb/2007 17,600
Mar/2007 16,600
Average 6,312 per week
But take a look at early 07 numbers. Not so optimistic are they?
And that was mainly due to BD. I predict these turn of events to do a lot more for it coming out of December than BD did. (And yes I am aware that BD came out in December and carried over)
If SO4 lands anywhere in the first 3 months, it will probably surpass even my estimates. But once again, there are so many ifs, that that's why I hate predicting monthly or weekly numbers, especially based on previous numbers.
Brofist
Member
ffs what is wrong with people here. At least give the 360 it's 15 minutes in Japan and stfu. No one expected even this much, it says something that MS was able to pull a little something together.
Are all the Nintendo fans here only fans from the Wii era, or did you all just forget that for the past couple generations they couldn't give their systems away. Cause the way you are all getting butt hurt by 1 week of being outsold by the 360 I have to wonder.
Are all the Nintendo fans here only fans from the Wii era, or did you all just forget that for the past couple generations they couldn't give their systems away. Cause the way you are all getting butt hurt by 1 week of being outsold by the 360 I have to wonder.
No. To re-state, it was 500K expected on the 360 platform alone in Japan, North America, and Asia.rykomatsu said:
No, it's still fanciful thinking. Though not as bad as the next guy.Paracelsus said:
Let's try this. At CEDEC 2008 Tsutomu Gouda and Higuchi Yoshito, the Producers for Vesperia, held a panel regarding Vesperia's success.jimbo said:
In that panel, Higuchi explained how at around the time that Tales of Abyss finished development, they had already decided to make Vesperia. Their foremost focus for the next Tales was HD quality, and thus even though they knew putting it on the PS2 would net them similar success that Abyss had, they went in favor of a next-gen machine. And at that time the 360 was the only choice.
They knew that a typical Tales games would sell about 500/600K units. They knew that at the time, the 360 didn't have even 600K units sold in Japan. It would have been pitiful to tell their team to work as hard as they could to end up selling less than most of the other Tales series. But they did anyways, because they had a vision.
They had their eye towards the rest of the world. They focused on developing a Tales game that would appeal to the rest of the world as well as Japan, a game that could sell up to 20 million units worldwide (lol). They pulled Bonnie Pink for an English opening, they voiced the skits, marketed the game as a commemoration of the 10th Anniversary of Tales in the US, all for that goal. Not to mention most of the development staff that was on Abyss went straight to Vesperia, cutting costs and improving efficiency.
In short, Namco may have expected Vesperia to do only okay in Japan (hence the 150K 'goal') but they definitely expected it to sell crazy Symphonia-style everywhere else. The fact that it may not will reflect much larger to Namco than whatever it sells in Japan. If that means a port to recover costs, you can bet they'll do it, because they banked a lot on the Western success of this game.