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February 23.

I guess the guy(s) who said that wasnt up to speed on the hardware sale. But this was also said: "A Bandai Namco rep later lowered that forecast to one million worldwide sales."I dont know how popular the Musou games are other places in the word, but to make LTD worldwide to 1 million doesnt seem too impossible.

All these excuses only explain why the game sold below expectations, they don't change the fact that it did. In the end, publishers care about absolute sales rather than tie-ratios.

I know, i never said anything else either. I'm just pointing out that factors like installbase should be considered into the sale of a game before its called bombed or not. As said, expectations might have been much higher, but how many copies of a game can you actually expect to sell to a userbase that is barley over a million.

Games on successful systems don't have to sell 1:1 to be successes.

True, but you jj984jj said it would be hard to sell 1:1 or even more (hence the 2 million GM prediction) and you then said "Which means it's hard for games to succeed on the PS3, especially big budget ones". I dont see why you specificly mentioned PS3 since its the same with all systems, its hard/impossible to sell 1:1.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Well.. true that the installbases are small, but there are millions difference between PS3 and Wii. If a game sells 50k on PS3, its a bigger tie-ratio and if it sells 50k on Wii. So which is the biggest failure? Of course there are many other factors to the sale numbers if its a failure or not, this was just a quick example to show that the size of the userbase matters, even if both is relatively small.

You bring up a valid point there, it depends on how well people expect it to sell, first off the publisher/developer. Failure can be a relative thing. Like if you release a budget title and it only sells 15k, many people might see it as a failure, but maybe the publisher/developers didnt expect more than this. So in many cases its no right or wrong if a game failed or not.

If the game on Wii is Scad Hammers and the game on PS3 is Heavenly Sword? PS3 hands down. There are games out there which are not expected to sell millions of copies. Trauma Center was a smashing success for Atlus but it didn't really lit the charts on fire.

Like Joker said, why would a publisher care for tie-ratio? They have a certain expectations and calculations (of which we sadly have no insight most of the time) and I'm sure they're all based on actual sales numbers. Of course the install-base should give a publisher hints as to what to expect in terms of sales, sometimes the view seems clouded though (Gundam Musou, RR7).

 

[Stumpokapow]

I guess the guy(s) who said that wasnt up to speed on the hardware sale. But this was also said: "A Bandai Namco rep later lowered that forecast to one million worldwide sales."I dont know how popular the Musou games are other places in the word, but to make LTD worldwide to 1 million doesnt seem too impossible.

Musou games are a uniquely japanese fascination. The odds of GM making it to 1 million worldwide are zero unless it somehow sells another half a million in Japan.

 

[oldie-newbie]

Also, where's first day sales? I want to see how much Lair bombed.

First day sales :

Nishimura Kyoutarou suspense: trap of murderous intent (DS) : 15~20 k

Arcana Heart (PS2) : 15~20k

Rise from Lair (PS3) : 15~20k (Shipments ~ 40k)

PGR4 (360) : 5k

XBOX 360 Elite : under 5k (quiet start)


Source : http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

 

[kay]

Some people just don't realize that PS3 versions of games could outsell, let's say, Wii versions. I'm willing to bet that FIFA 08 will do better on the PS3 in Japan. This is the first example of a day and date release on both systems (12/20). Since the PS3 version is killing the Wii version elsewhere, I think this one is a lock. Gundam Musou Wii would have outsold the PS3 version if launched back in March? I doubt it.

PGR4 bomba.

 

[test_account]

Like Joker said, why would a publisher care for tie-ratio?

I have never said anything like this, but when you ask, to boost their self esteem Of course tie-ratio doesnt mean any if you dont make money on the games. Its not like the publishers doest say "hey, we lost 50 million dollars on the game, but the tie-ratio is 50% so it was all worth it" hehe

I'm just talking about what should be considered a bomb or not. If people consider 300k sale of a game to a userbase of ~1 million, ok.. i wont argue against it, but i wouldnt call that a bomb, even if publishers might have expected alittle more. I think 300k is a pretty good salenumber on PS3.

Musou games are a uniquely japanese fascination. The odds of GM making it to 1 million worldwide are zero unless it somehow sells another half a million in Japan.

Ok, i have no idea how popular the Musou games in USA and Europe. Any stats on how much the previous Musou games sold over here?

 

[justjohn]

wow at lair. i thought it would do less 5k for the whole week

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

wow at lair. i thought it would do less 5k for the whole week

Yeah, it's not bad when compared to NA sales. Still a horrendous money pit for Sony, but every copy sold softens the blow a little.

 

[Frillen]

First day sales :

Nishimura Kyoutarou suspense: trap of murderous intent (DS) : 15~20 k

Arcana Heart (PS2) : 15~20k

Rise from Lair (PS3) : 15~20k (Shipments ~ 40k)

PGR4 (360) : 5k

XBOX 360 Elite : under 5k (quiet start)


Source : http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

Hmm, so it didn't bomb completely. Should do over 25k first week which actually isn't that bad

Also, could the 360 beat the PS3 this week? The chance is slim but it's possible.

 

[kisakiproject]

First day sales :

Nishimura Kyoutarou suspense: trap of murderous intent (DS) : 15~20 k

Arcana Heart (PS2) : 15~20k

Rise from Lair (PS3) : 15~20k (Shipments ~ 40k)

PGR4 (360) : 5k

XBOX 360 Elite : under 5k (quiet start)


Source : http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

Ouch For PGR4. Why won't HD races sell in japan???

 

[Magicpaint]

Yeah lair is actually doing pretty OK, all things considered.

 

[kay]

Yeah lair is actually doing pretty OK, all things considered.

Well, the boxart for Japan is awesome, I'd buy it

Spoiler

if I had any interest

 

[justjohn]

Ouch For PGR4. Why won't 360 races sell in japan???

.

 

[Jokeropia]

I guess the guy(s) who said that wasnt up to speed on the hardware sale. But this was also said: "A Bandai Namco rep later lowered that forecast to one million worldwide sales."

That's what I said. Koei had 2 million and Namco Bandai 1 million. Gundam Musou was released in US in August but I don't think it sold much.

I know, i never said anything else either. I'm just pointing out that factors like installbase should be considered into the sale of a game before its called bombed or not.

I disagree, at least when discussing success or failure in absolute terms. That something sells well for a PS3 game doesn't mean it's a success in absolute terms. It doesn't mean that the game failed to appeal to PS3 owners, just that there weren't enough PS3 owners to make it a success begin with.

True, but you jj984jj said it would be hard to sell 1:1 or even more (hence the 2 million GM prediction) and you then said "Which means it's hard for games to succeed on the PS3, especially big budget ones". I dont see why you specificly mentioned PS3 since its the same with all systems, its hard/impossible to sell 1:1.

I specifically mentioned the PS3 because it's an unsuccessful system and games have to reach much higher tie-ratios on unsuccessful systems to be profitable/successes than on successful systems.

 

[ziran]

Some people just don't realize that PS3 versions of games could outsell, let's say, Wii versions. I'm willing to bet that FIFA 08 will do better on the PS3 in Japan. This is the first example of a day and date release on both systems (12/20). Since the PS3 version is killing the Wii version elsewhere, I think this one is a lock. Gundam Musou Wii would have outsold the PS3 version if launched back in March? I doubt it.

PGR4 bomba.

But selling like shit, is still selling like shit, whatever platform it's on. The only slight positive is at least developers aren't losing as much money on Wii titles as they are PS3, which is still tragic.

The Japanese market has changed beyond all recognition from where it was a few years ago and 3rd parties desperately need to embrace this and develop new strategies. Doing the same as before with incremental improvements isn't working, the Japanese mass market wants something new.

 

[biocat]

DS is a fad? Like the PS2? Coz you know DS is about to catch up to the PS2 in userbase and all.

The DS was at a fad level. At its peak people who once had no interest in games could be seen talking about their brain age or downloading presents for the animal crossing towns in their nearby train station packs of dozens or more.

It is no longer at that level.

 

[RBH]

First day sales :

Nishimura Kyoutarou suspense: trap of murderous intent (DS) : 15~20 k

Arcana Heart (PS2) : 15~20k

Rise from Lair (PS3) : 15~20k (Shipments ~ 40k)

PGR4 (360) : 5k

XBOX 360 Elite : under 5k (quiet start)


Source : http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

Decent start for Lair.

Bomba for PGR4.

 

[kay]

But selling like shit, is still selling like shit, whatever platform it's on. The only slight positive is at least developers aren't losing as much money on Wii titles as they are PS3, which is still tragic.

The Japanese market has changed beyond all recognition from where it was a few years ago and 3rd parties desperately need to embrace this and develop new strategies. Doing the same as before with incremental improvements isn't working, the Japanese mass market wants something new.

Keep in mind, there is a 360 port which might not have been hard to do. You can't exactly port from PS3 to Wii easily. I don't think Nikkei's? report on next gen budgets is accurate.. a lot of assets used in some titles are PS2-like but just not sacrificed on weaker hardware. If the devkits are up to par, there shouldn't be that much of a difference between say a PS3 and PS2 version of a game (what, like 1.8 billion yen difference??). It totally depends on which game though, motion capture, voice acting etc..

 

[test_account]

That's what I said. Koei had 2 million and Namco Bandai 1 million. Gundam Musou was released in US in August but I don't think it sold much.

I didnt see you said 1 million worldwide so i thought you ment Japan only hence the Media Create thread.

I disagree, at least when discussing success or failure in absolute terms. That something sells well for a PS3 game doesn't mean it's a success in absolute terms. It doesn't mean that the game failed to appeal to PS3 owners, just that there weren't enough PS3 owners to make it a success begin with.

I know what you're saying and i agree, but saying that a game that sold ~300k to a ~1 million installbase for a failure, i dont agree to that. It can be looked at as a failure in absolute terms as you said, as in it was expected to sell alot more, but under these circumstances, i would not call it a failure.

I specifically mentioned the PS3 because it's an unsuccessful system and games have to reach much higher tie-ratios on unsuccessful systems to be profitable/successes than on successful systems.

True, but higher tie-ratio is much different from 1:1 as jj984jj said

 

[Magicpaint]

The DS was at a fad level. At its peak people who once had no interest in games could be seen talking about their brain age or downloading presents for the animal crossing towns in their nearby train station packs of dozens or more.

It is no longer at that level.

You only seem to be the one saying so. :lol

 

[ziran]

Keep in mind, there is a 360 port which might not have been hard to do. You can't exactly port from PS3 to Wii easily. I don't think Nikkei's? report on next gen budgets is accurate.. a lot of assets used in some titles are PS2-like but just not sacrificed on weaker hardware. If the devkits are up to par, there shouldn't be that much of a difference between say a PS3 and PS2 version of a game (what, like 1.8 billion yen difference??). It totally depends on which game though, motion capture, voice acting etc..

No, you're missing the point, like most Japanese developers.

They will not gain the successes they once had in Japan if they continue their dumb PS3, Wii and 360 strategies, and that's really what they are at this stage, dumb. Making the same games you've been making for the last 10 years with better graphics, better sound, better physics, better cinematics, is only scratching the itch of the hardcore, who are insignificant from a sales perspective at the level of budgets these games have.

I mean can you imagine the bombs Lair and Heavenly Sword are going to be! We're talking about losing tens of millions of dollars! This risk is way too high and many developers are going to be bitten badly, no question about it.

Just as the market has changed 3rd parties need to, and it's not about making 500 clones of Wii Sports, it's about using some thought to come up with new ways to play old games and creating new experiences to play, on every system. This will likely suck for the hardcore, which is a shame, but we just have no affect on what happens in the console market. As much as we bitch and moan we're just bystanders.

 

[kay]

I was talking about making/porting Gundam Musou and how the cost difference wouldn't have been so severe between this gen and last gen, I don't think I missed that point as I didn't mention what the developers should be doing!

 

[wazoo]

No, you're missing the point, like most Japanese developers.

They will not gain the successes they once had in Japan if they continue their dumb PS3, Wii and 360 strategies, and that's really what they are at this stage, dumb. Making the same games you've been making for the last 10 years with better graphics, better sound, better physics, better cinematics, is only scratching the itch of the hardcore, who are insignificant from a sales perspective at the level of budgets these games have.

I mean can you imagine the bombs Lair and Heavenly Sword are going to be! We're talking about losing tens of millions of dollars! This risk is way too high and many developers are going to be bitten badly, no question about it.

Just as the market has changed 3rd parties need to, and it's not about making 500 clones of Wii Sports, it's about using some thought to come up with new ways to play old games and creating new experiences to play, on every system. This will likely suck for the hardcore, which is a shame, but we just have no affect on what happens in the console market. As much as we bitch and moan we're just bystanders.

I think you have a good analysis of the japanese market. I think that editors which will suffer the most are editors not used to sell abroad. Those are either condemned to adapt or die. For the others, I think they will focus more and more on the western market, where "classic" gaming is not dead. IF we look at ps2 total sales, 20M were in Japan out of 120M, the rest of the world is still big. We could reach a state where both markets, the japanese and "elsewhere" are so different that japan (not japanese developers) become irrelevant to us, like it is for litterature or movies, whose audience in the west is hardcore.

 

[ziran]

I was talking about making/porting Gundam Musou and how the cost difference wouldn't have been so severe between this gen and last gen, I don't think I missed that point as I didn't mention what the developers should be doing!

Well, really, I do think you missed the point and the bigger picture because you're talking about the viability of porting a game, which, as a concept, isn't going to resolve any of the 3rd party problems. As such it's whitewash to the real issues and avoids potential solutions.

Don't get me wrong, I think this is how developers are thinking and it shows how truly desperate they are because the real question isn't to do with issues about how do they maximise losses/profits by porting this old style of game, it should be about not making those kind of games in the first place.

3rd parties have left it too long. Porting a stagnant/dying genre of gaming from one system to another solves nothing and they are potentially facing a do or die situation because they have been so slow to react. Now, they need radical change, which is going to seem more far more risky than doing what they're doing, or how it would've been had they planned for potential change when Nintendo first talked about it or even when DS started taking off. Witnessing the change in the market wasn't difficult, accepting it has been the problem.

As far as the Japanese home console market is concerned most 3rd parties have done the equivalent of burying their heads in the sand for the last 3 years and they're really starting to pay for it now.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Some people just don't realize that PS3 versions of games could outsell, let's say, Wii versions. I'm willing to bet that FIFA 08 will do better on the PS3 in Japan. This is the first example of a day and date release on both systems (12/20). Since the PS3 version is killing the Wii version elsewhere, I think this one is a lock. Gundam Musou Wii would have outsold the PS3 version if launched back in March? I doubt it.

PGR4 bomba.

While that may be true for the Fifa series what could we gather from this for other game-series? People are too concerned about their system of choice. There is money to be made on PS3 software, just like there is money to be made on PSP software. There will be successful series on all gaming systems. We don't know if GM would have sold if it was released on Wii since it wasn't released there. Since there is nothing to compare such a situation to we couldn't even speculate about it. As is, GM's sales didn't meet expectations, neither the batshit insane expectations Bandai/Namco had nor reasonable expectations.

The same applies to RR7. Would this have sold more on Wii? I doubt it, but that doesn't make it sales on PS3 any less disheartening. The same could be said about bad performances on Wii, would Dewey have sold more on PS3? No. It's still a bomb.

I have never said anything like this, but when you ask, to boost their self esteem Of course tie-ratio doesnt mean any if you dont make money on the games. Its not like the publishers doest say "hey, we lost 50 million dollars on the game, but the tie-ratio is 50% so it was all worth it" hehe

I'm just talking about what should be considered a bomb or not. If people consider 300k sale of a game to a userbase of ~1 million, ok.. i wont argue against it, but i wouldnt call that a bomb, even if publishers might have expected alittle more. I think 300k is a pretty good salenumber on PS3.

That number sounds somehwat familiar. As I said no two games can be judged equally. 300k can be quite a good number, I agree. But if it would be something like the new KH, it would be quite a big bomb.

Ouch For PGR4. Why won't HD races sell in japan???

Ehm, watch GT5 sell really well.

 

[Jokeropia]

I know what you're saying and i agree, but saying that a game that sold ~300k to a ~1 million installbase for a failure, i dont agree to that. It can be looked at as a failure in absolute terms as you said, as in it was expected to sell alot more, but under these circumstances, i would not call it a failure.

Well I would, and I believe Namco Bandai and Koei feel the same way. It's successful for a PS3 game, but when I say "success" without any such qualifiers I tend to speak in absolute terms.

True, but higher tie-ratio is much different from 1:1 as jj984jj said

Not really. I started the discussion by calling Gundam Musou "not a success" due to failure in meeting expectations and he replied that it's hard for a game to sell 1:1 with the hardware. I then replied that yes, that is the very reason for why it's hard for PS3 games to be successes. A game on an unsucessful platform needs a much higher tie-ratio to be a success than a game on a successful platform.

 

[ethelred]

Gundam Musou can hardly be considered a success when Bandai-Namco expected it to sell four times and Koei almost eight times what it did.

That's what they said. (Well, 1 million.) Koei said 2 million.

Yes, and they were joking. Or didn't you get that by the fact that they started laughing afterwards?

I'm afraid you're going to have to let this talking point go. I know it'll be hard, but you can do it.

 

[JavyOO7]

I think Super Mario Galaxy could do for the Wii what SM64, and NSMB did before it... sell alot of hardware.

IMO, if we talk about potential, it really should eclipse what NSMB did for the DS.

Really though it's all up to Nintendo when it comes to that. I think if how I'm thinking in terms of sell and whatever work for SMG, Japan and the rest of the world are done for.

Regardless, I don't really care for its sales all that much. I JUST WANT THE FUCKING GAME. <

 

[biocat]

You only seem to be the one saying so. :lol

Yeah, but I really don't mind if I am.

 

[wazoo]

I think Super Mario Galaxy could do for the Wii what SM64, and NSMB did before it... sell alot of hardware.

IMO, if we talk about potential, it really should eclipse what NSMB did for the DS.

Really though it's all up to Nintendo when it comes to that. I think if how I'm thinking in terms of sell and whatever work for SMG, Japan and the rest of the world are done for.

Regardless, I don't really care for its sales all that much. I JUST WANT THE FUCKING GAME. <

not really. SMG will sell,sure, but it has not the appeal of old 2D MArio Bros like NSMB. 3D Marios or SSBM are just games of the declining Nintendo period, they will appeal to gamers of this period. Wii fit is the real deal, even if SMG will benefit from Wii hype, it will not drive sales. IMO.

 

[Mashing]

There are lots of ways, actually! We can look at some of the things that Sony and Microsoft have done (to great success), or that have worked for Nintendo's 1st party software. Off the top of my head:

* Cut deals with 3rd party publishers. Entice them to take that first step. Make it impossible to resist putting a slick, (relatively) high-budget title on the Wii because of all the bennies you're providing. This doesn't have to just be straight-up moneyhats -- loans/gifts of devkits, advertising support, etc. all help too. If Nintendo can get developers to risk a few top-quality games on their system, the chances would be good that all sales going forward (AAA and B+ titles alike) would improve.
* Clear space. Nintendo's been doing a much better job of this than they used to, but there's always room for improvement. Ideally they'd have done step 1 and then be working the lacunae for AAA 3rd party titles into their schedules way in advance to drive up their sales.
* Use the Nintendo marketing machine. The problem is that gamers are looking to Nintendo to see what games to buy, right? Turn that around and start pushing third-party titles with their own preview channels, big Nintendo-funded ad campaigns, etc.

Eteric Rice can cast aspersions on the quality of third-party Wii efforts as much as he wants, but the fact is that no one ever got anywhere telling an acrophobic guy to climb a ladder. Third parties have been burned before, which means it's Nintendo's responsibilty to go way above and beyond the call of duty in over-reassuring them it won't happen again if they want the development to happen for their system. I was definitely hoping to see that happen, but so far (again with the slight exception of Square-Enix, who are definitely putting at least a little heft into it) Nintendo doesn't seem interested in actually bringing third parties on board.

If you read my earlier post on this matter this is pretty much exactly what I proposed. I don't know if it's feasible from a business standpoint. Nintendo's strength is their zero-debt, massive cash reserves so I believe they need to start leveraging that strength.

 

[Jokeropia]

Yes, and they were joking. Or didn't you get that by the fact that they started laughing afterwards?

I'm afraid you're going to have to let this talking point go. I know it'll be hard, but you can do it.

Koei's statement could possibly be interpreted as a bit of a joke, but I don't think the same can be said about Bandai Namco's.

A Bandai Namco rep later lowered that forecast to one million worldwide sales.

 

[ethelred]

Koei's statement could possibly be interpreted as a bit of a joke, but I don't think the same can be said about Bandai Namco's.

Well that's par for the course. Scamco overestimates every game's sales potential. They expect Tales games to sell 2 million, they expected 1 million from Xenosaga in Japan alone. Baten Kaitos was supposed to sell 500k. Only a hyperventilating partisan would blame Gundam Musou's failure to meet Scamco's expectations on the PS3.

 

[Jokeropia]

1 million might be an optimistic prediction, but I think the game would've gotten a lot closer to it had the PS3 performed like most (including Bandai Namco no doubt) expected it to.

 

[test_account]

That number sounds somehwat familiar. As I said no two games can be judged equally. 300k can be quite a good number, I agree. But if it would be something like the new KH, it would be quite a big bomb.

True, each game is an individual. And yes, a KH game selling only 300k can be considered a bomb in the total picture, but still, in my case, i cant just fully ignore the userbase VS number of copies sold. I must take the userbase into consideration too.

Well I would, and I believe Namco Bandai and Koei feel the same way. It's successful for a PS3 game, but when I say "success" without any such qualifiers I tend to speak in absolute terms.

I see what you mean and i agree to it, but as mentioned above, in my case i cant just fully ignore the installbase when it comes to success or not. I guess you can say its 2 different kinds of success One is to sell alot of copies taking the installbase into consideration. The other is to sell alot of copies, but in a much much bigger number, not just looking at the tie-ratio.

Not really. I started the discussion by calling Gundam Musou "not a success" due to failure in meeting expectations and he replied that it's hard for a game to sell 1:1 with the hardware. I then replied that yes, that is the very reason for why it's hard for PS3 games to be successes. A game on an unsucessful platform needs a much higher tie-ratio to be a success than a game on a successful platform.

Hm.. i dont quite understand this. Do you mean that the sale of a PS3 game must be close to 1:1 to be considered a success? About the tie ratio, wouldnt that come automaticly? I mean, it doesnt matter what the tie-ratio is, its the number of copies thats sold.

 

[donny2112]

Koei already has. Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI (Wii Version) and Katana Musou both bombed horribly, whereas Bladestorm did quite well.

Well, I guess that explains why the COO of Koei was so happy that Bladestorm's sales of 96,000 didn't recoup the cost of developing it.

Sangokushi XI on Wii sold 1K its first week (March) while the PS2 version sold 87K over the last three months of 2006. Katana sold 12K its first week (Sangokushi XI (PS2) was 35K its first week, for comparison) and probably less than 8K its second. No excuses there. However bad the Wii is doing for 3rd parties right now, the PS3 is worse in Japan. The Wii has the upside of bringing big-seller traditional titles that might actually spark the sales of more traditional titles in Japan. The PS3 has the upside of hoping that it sells more. Which is more likely?

I wasn't offering a rousing defense of Sony.

Ah. That's a relief (seriously). Too many people look at the poor Wii software sales for third-parties, and say that Wii third-party development is a mistake. However, going to the PS3 or 360 for a Japanese-oriented title would be even more stupid than continuing to put it on the Wii. Monster Hunter 3 is an example of this.

Doesn't change the fact that some 3rd parties are having more success on PS3 than on Wii.

If success = profit, I find it hard to believe that any Japan-only titles are finding "success" on the PS3.

I guess DQIV and FFIV will be popular as hell.

Shoot. And I was hoping that they would sell well.

 

[Kenka]

The amount of BULLSHIT met in this thread is incredible, and unbearable


SMG will sell tons of Wi

SSBB will sell tons of Wii

If Nintendo keeps gathering the third parties around it, PS3 will have no chance to top it.

So ? Please, ALL OF YOU, just sit and watch what's coming next. And by the way shut up, you're fu**ing my day up.

 

[kay]

Well, I guess that explains why the COO of Koei was so happy that Bladestorm's sales of 96,000 didn't recoup the cost of developing it. I mean, who wouldn't think that failing to sell enough copies of a game to recoup development costs is doing "quite well." Good call. *thumbs up*

Sangokushi XI on Wii sold 1K its first week (March) while the PS2 version sold 87K over the last three months of 2006. Katana sold 12K its first week (Sangokushi XI (PS2) was 35K its first week, for comparison) and probably less than 8K its second. No excuses there. However bad the Wii is doing for 3rd parties right now, the PS3 is worse in Japan.

Spoiler

In fact, based on Koei's COO's "500K sold on PS3 to break even" estimation, no third-party game has made money on the PS3 in Japan.

The Wii has the upside of bringing big-seller traditional titles that might actually spark the sales of more traditional titles in Japan. The PS3 has the upside of hoping that it sells more. Which is more likely?

You didn't even read the thread you linked to, Koei said that estimation was off. Bladestorm has only come out in one region and yet you right it off? That post just sounds like "WII IS THE FUTURE FOR 3RD PARTIES" with contradictory evidence to boot. You could have just said it had a higher install base and been right.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

There are lots of ways, actually! We can look at some of the things that Sony and Microsoft have done (to great success), or that have worked for Nintendo's 1st party software. Off the top of my head:

* Cut deals with 3rd party publishers. Entice them to take that first step. Make it impossible to resist putting a slick, (relatively) high-budget title on the Wii because of all the bennies you're providing. This doesn't have to just be straight-up moneyhats -- loans/gifts of devkits, advertising support, etc. all help too. If Nintendo can get developers to risk a few top-quality games on their system, the chances would be good that all sales going forward (AAA and B+ titles alike) would improve.
* Clear space. Nintendo's been doing a much better job of this than they used to, but there's always room for improvement. Ideally they'd have done step 1 and then be working the lacunae for AAA 3rd party titles into their schedules way in advance to drive up their sales.
* Use the Nintendo marketing machine. The problem is that gamers are looking to Nintendo to see what games to buy, right? Turn that around and start pushing third-party titles with their own preview channels, big Nintendo-funded ad campaigns, etc.

Eteric Rice can cast aspersions on the quality of third-party Wii efforts as much as he wants, but the fact is that no one ever got anywhere telling an acrophobic guy to climb a ladder. Third parties have been burned before, which means it's Nintendo's responsibilty to go way above and beyond the call of duty in over-reassuring them it won't happen again if they want the development to happen for their system. I was definitely hoping to see that happen, but so far (again with the slight exception of Square-Enix, who are definitely putting at least a little heft into it) Nintendo doesn't seem interested in actually bringing third parties on board.

Quoted for SO MUCH damn truth, if all else fails, just give money hats to Square-Enix, Atlus, and many other companies to get exclusives.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Ouch For PGR4. Why won't HD races sell in japan???

They don't have the name GT on the box.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

Quoted for SO MUCH damn truth, if all else fails, just give money hats to Square-Enix, Atlus, and many other companies to get exclusives.

Nintendo is seemingly being reduced to this, because the heads of these businesses just don't get it. Its not Nintendo's problem as long as they go with the flow of stupidity and do their own thing, which is what they are doing, as evidenced by the Monster Hunter 3 coup.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Nintendo is seemingly being reduced to this, because the heads of these businesses just don't get it. Its not Nintendo's problem as long as they go with the flow of stupidity and do their own thing, which is what they are doing, as evidenced by the Monster Hunter 3 coup.

That's the problem, 3rd parties have failed miserably on previous Nintendo consoles. The only way to get the "wave" to start is to get the winds to blow, to make that happen they got to prove to the developers that making high budget 3rd party games can sell insanely well.

The only way they can do that is to start striking deals XBOX 360 style, whether it is paying for a portion of development, handling the marketing, and making exclusive deals with companies. Monster Hunter 3 is a damn good start, but they need to do this with everyone else.

 

[donny2112]

You didn't even read the thread you linked to, Koei said that estimation was off.

I read it in detail when the thread was posted, and thought I could just skim it now. Obviously I was wrong. I'll take out the incorrect part.

Bladestorm has only come out in one region and yet you right it off?

Did I write off Bladestorm as having any chance of profit? I thought I was correcting ethelred's statement that Bladestorm did "quite well."

That post just sounds like "WII IS THE FUTURE FOR 3RD PARTIES" with contradictory evidence to boot.

For Japan-centric titles that don't sell well abroad or are not even released abroad, PS360 is a death-trap right now and for the foreseeable future. If it has to be a console title, the choice is either PS2 (not a longterm option) or the Wii.

 

[Jonnyram]

PGR4 (360) : 5k

XBOX 360 Elite : under 5k (quiet start)

What a clusterfuck. I'm pretty sure MS is to blame for the poor supply of Elites though. 5000 is the supply number. 5000... for the whole of Japan. Idiots.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Why do Japanese 360 owners hate racing games so much?

As ridiculous as Ridge Racer 6 outselling Forza and PGR4 combined is, all 3 of them deserved to do better, even on a userbase that size.

 

[kay]

I read it in detail when the thread was posted, and thought I could just skim it now. Obviously I was wrong. I'll take out the incorrect part.



Did I write off Bladestorm as having any chance of profit? I thought I was correcting ethelred's statement that Bladestorm did "quite well."



For Japan-centric titles that don't sell well abroad or are not even released abroad, PS360 is a death-trap right now and for the foreseeable future. If it has to be a console title, the choice is either PS2 (not a longterm option) or the Wii.

I didn't say you were wrong but the reason was wrong, profits for a game are totally dependent by an individual game basis, you can't just say what platform every game should go to. Right now, small Japanese developers obviously want to be on the Wii for the lower costs to produce the games. Bigger companies, not so much of a problem... as they say, Wii/DS funds PS3/360 development :lol

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

3rd parties are doomed is the new meme I guess.

They will disappear or mobiles will save them.



I don't know which option is worse hum....

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I didn't say you were wrong but the reason was wrong, profits for a game are totally dependent by an individual game basis, you can't just say what platform every game should go to. Right now, small Japanese developers obviously want to be on the Wii for the lower costs to produce the games. Bigger companies, not so much of a problem... as they say, Wii/DS funds PS3/360 development :lol

And it shows.

 

[kay]

2 billion yen has to come from somewhere.

 

[donny2112]

as they say, Wii/DS funds PS3/360 development :lol

If Wii/DS funds PS360 development ...

and third-parties don't sell on Nintendo platforms ...

Oh, crap!