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[Opus Angelorum]

As those PS3 numbers as expected? Not much talk about them.

 

[biocat]

Hey, cool, you're the most observant person around now? I'm glad to hear your recent ocular troubles have all cleared up.

What? Just because I wish a game that heavily utilized digitzed graphics was on a higher def screen? You guys are so defensive. Some games look awesome on the DS. Mistwalker unfortunately didn't pull it off for me.

Lobster:
I don't have to see everywhere to get a general idea, surely?


Anyways, I was in Ikebukuro east-side Bic (the bigger one), and PSPs were sold out of three of six colors. DS's were sold out of four of seven.

 

[jj984jj]

As those PS3 numbers as expected? Not much talk about them.

Maybe if it gets back under 10k we'll notice, it'll probably happen considering only The Godfather and Lair come out this week.

 

[biocat]

Maybe if it gets back under 10k we'll notice, it'll probably happen considering only The Godfather and Lair come out this week.

Lair might actually do alright in Japan considering it hasn't gotten the backlash here it got in the US and elsewhere. Of course, it won't be moving systems at all.

 

[test_account]

Lair might actually do alright in Japan considering it hasn't gotten the backlash here it got in the US and elsewhere. Of course, it won't be moving systems at all.

It doesnt take much to beat 10k so Lair and/or Godfather can move systems. Even if its just 500 its still a move

 

[DefectiveReject]

I think the guy posting the lst few years HW charts fr October explains everything

 

[Chumly]

Anyways, I was in Ikebukuro east-side Bic (the bigger one), and PSPs were sold out of three of six colors. DS's were sold out of four of seven.

I dont understand how its possible for the DS to have STACKS of used systems in stores and is currently a dieing fad when you just said yourself that DS's were sold out in 4/7 colors. Hell thats better than the PSP. The DS is still selling 80+ thousand units every single week so I think its probably fine. It sounds like you just overexaggerated what you saw and are now backpeddling when everyone else is like wtf. I guess well see though in the coming weeks/months if the DS is gonna die and the PSP is gonna take over.

 

[biocat]

I dont understand how its possible for the DS to have STACKS of used systems in stores and is currently a dieing fad when you just said yourself that DS's were sold out in 4/7 colors. Hell thats better than the PSP. The DS is still selling 80+ thousand units every single week so I think its probably fine. It sounds like you just overexaggerated what you saw and are now backpeddling when everyone else is like wtf. I guess well see though in the coming weeks/months if the DS is gonna die and the PSP is gonna take over.

I never said it would die. Not once. I just said the huge fad of it is beginning to die and I still think so.

 

[DCharlie]

Lair might actually do alright in Japan considering it hasn't gotten the backlash here it got in the US and elsewhere. Of course, it won't be moving systems at all.

well, they learnt one thing from the US apparently.

the put pocket cards out on shelves telling you how to control the game, with a different instruction on each card.

Also - i think the game has to come out first before the backlash can start!

I don`t think Lair is going to do that well in Japan, but it`ll all depend on what your definition of "alright" is.

I just said the huge fad of it is beginning to die and I still think so

yes, and now it`s simply settling down to being the no. 1 selling hardware. The MASSIVE DEMAND SURGE has been filled for now, come December, it`ll start all over again...

and god help people if they announce a couple of big name games (like DQ9....)

 

[BishopLamont]

I never said it would die. Not once. I just said the huge fad of it is beginning to die and I still think so.

DS is a fad? Like the PS2? Coz you know DS is about to catch up to the PS2 in userbase and all.

 

[Hurricane_Chris]

Maybe if it gets back under 10k we'll notice, it'll probably happen considering only The Godfather and Lair come out this week.

Godfather was sold out at both Shinjuku Yodobashis and Lair was nearing it when I went for late lunch (3pm) today!

 

[Kintaro]

You guys just need to let it go. It'll do what it does.

 

[AnimeTheme]

For the record, I think Galaxy is going to be absolutely huge. Equivalent to NSMB relative to the system's positions at each game's launches.

Yeah SMG will be huge, but I don't think it will be as huge as NSMB, relatively speaking.

 

[AniHawk]

I don't think SMG will have the reach NSMB does much at all. I'm willing to eat crow on this one, but I think it'll have a hard time besting SM64 on a worldwide scale. SSBB is just eating up all the fanbase for this game, which is sad to see. SSBB will probably be an incredible and very full game with tons of cool stuff, but SMG looks like it's shaping up to be an absolute classic.

On top of that, NSMB was a portable game that appealed to fans of a game that sold about 40 million copies worldwide. SMG will appeal to the hardcore fanbase on the Wii. It's a sizable amount of people, but it's not going to break records or anything.

 

[Arde5643]

On top of that, NSMB was a portable game that appealed to fans of a game that sold about 40 million copies worldwide. SMG will appeal to the hardcore fanbase on the Wii. It's a sizable amount of people, but it's not going to break records or anything.

I'm really hopeful you're wrong on this one and SMG will also appeal to the so-called Japanese mainstream audience of the Wii.

At the very least, that will show that there is hope for console gaming in Japan.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Hardware is pretty much as expected although PSP still holds out very strong. PS3 will most likely fall with the price drop and ceramic white announcements taking effect in next weeks reporting period (announcement was on October 9th). Wii should remain relatively steady around 20k, maybe with a slight drop below.

Did the PS3 price drop happen in Japan this week (and I mean "this" week, not this MC week)?

It wouldn't make much sense to announce a price drop for a month from now and wait for the new hardware to drop it.

No, price drop is on October 17th (next week) and the Ceramic White 40G PS3 will be released on November 11th.

Yeah but what have they released on Wii other then Tamagotchi Wii?

Dragon Ball Z 2: 157.784
Enichi: 104.524
One Piece: 95.203
Gundam: 59.148
Tamagotchi: 51.856
Gundam SH: 43.324

And recently Dragon Ball Z 3 and Kekkaishi

On PS3:
Gundam Musou: 277.582
RR7: 137.644
Gundam: 134.206

So they did fare better on PS3 but they also had the merging of two very popular series and a flagship series released. Seeing that Enichi and One Piece almost sold as much as RR7 makes me weep though.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm really hopeful you're wrong on this one and SMG will also appeal to the so-called Japanese mainstream audience of the Wii.

At the very least, that will show that there is hope for console gaming in Japan.

Well I think it will be true for Japan as well as the rest of the world.

 

[ziran]

It's strange how the Wii sales just kinda died. Now that I'm here in Japan and get to talk to people as well as visit shops, I find that the big issue is just lack of compelling software, but also the lack of games to look forward to. Wii Sports has pretty much run its course and there isn't anything available to fill that gap. Not only that, but not enough games for the core gamer. Funny that looking at the Japanese Wii software section compared to the Wii software sections in the states the difference is like night and day. There just isn't much compelling Wii software. A co-worker has a Wii, but says he hasn't played it in months because there haven't been any games he wants. Most of his game playing is on the PS3 at the moment which he is currently playing Folks Soul.

On other thing I'd like to add is the comments from some of my students (who are Japanese) is that many are unsure what kind of console the Wii is supposed to be. I still haven't figured out what that means since my Japanese isn't good enough, but perhaps someone can understand it better than I.

I understand that Nintendo wants to go after the casual market, but they do need the "core" gamers to survive as well. There should be some happy balance and there just isn't at the moment. Perhaps the announcement of Monster Hunter 3 will spur some interest, but I think there need to be more games announced than that. Specifically, more RPGs and less ports and rehashes. The article posted in another thread about Japanese developers wary of the Wii really strikes home when you look at the current software lineup. I think Nintendo needs to do something, but not really sure what.

I agree with some of what you're saying but judging tastes of the mass market by listening to hardcore gamers, i.e. someone who enjoys Folks Soul, paints an irrelevantly narrow picture of what's happening. Also, while MH3 is big and important, it, and similar announcements, aren't going to be the reasons home console gaming survives to previous highs in Japan.

Most people who own a videogame system don't need anywhere near the amount of titles we need. They buy maybe 2-3 games a year and are happy. Videogaming just isn't that important to them. Nintendo has let demand slide, I think they could've released Wii Fit and Wii Music earlier, unquestionably titles with big sales potential, but there simply wasn't going to be enough hardware around to satisfy global demand.

Nintendo's biggest error so far is not anticipating demand of Wii hw.

While this is a quiet time, the market is also in flux. Traditional gaming is continuing to stagnate, and isn't being resuscitated by going the bigger, better, more, route. People want something new and interesting, and it is this which will win the attention of the mainstream whichever system delivers it, likely to be Wii imo. The confusion you speak of as to what Wii is does exist, but only in the sense it hasn't yet delivered a comprehensive line-up of interesting, system selling, games, and Nintendo understands this, the same thing happened with DS. PS3 and 360, with their current strategies and line-ups are unlikely to be anything other than secondary systems in Japan. Wii has a great chance of succeeding if Nintendo makes compelling sw (and it's looking like they're going to have to do it alone yet again) .

The problems for the hardcore judging sales, and the reasons why we're so bad at it, is we put everything under a microscope and blow things completely out of proportion. The idea Nintendo should've been more aggressive for 3rd parties is true for us, the hardcore, but realistically most 3rd parties are totally clueless about the current market in Japan, so from a sales perspective they weren't going to save shit. Nintendo had to rely on themselves.

We're at the stage of Nintendogs being released for DS and now we need the Brain Training, BBA, ACDS, NSMB, etc, equivalents.


EDIT-
SMG could go either way really, without playing it's difficult to know how accessible it is. Iwata did say they're lining it up to be another reinvention of the series in the same way Phantom Hourglass was, opening up the title to a wider audience. It's going to sell more than SMS, ww I expect it to sell 10 million, although it could sell more.

 

[AnimeTheme]

No, price drop is on October 17th (next week) and the Ceramic White 40G PS3 will be released on November 11th.

It seems Amazon Japan is already selling the existing models with a 5,000 yen cut.

 

[Phife Dawg]

It seems Amazon Japan is already selling the existing models with a 5,000 yen cut.

Could be true but that's retailer specific I'd say. PR said October 17th specifically. But if a lot of retailers follow Amazon's example we'll definetly see an increase of hw sales instead of a decline.

 

[Lobster]

Dragon Ball Z 2: 157.784
Enichi: 104.524
One Piece: 95.203
Gundam: 59.148
Tamagotchi: 51.856
Gundam SH: 43.324

Whats Enichi?? They probably actually made a profit on all those games.

 

[Brofist]

I don't think SMG will have the reach NSMB does much at all. I'm willing to eat crow on this one, but I think it'll have a hard time besting SM64 on a worldwide scale. SSBB is just eating up all the fanbase for this game, which is sad to see. SSBB will probably be an incredible and very full game with tons of cool stuff, but SMG looks like it's shaping up to be an absolute classic.

On top of that, NSMB was a portable game that appealed to fans of a game that sold about 40 million copies worldwide. SMG will appeal to the hardcore fanbase on the Wii. It's a sizable amount of people, but it's not going to break records or anything.

I pretty much agree with every point in this post.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Mhmmmm....I'd have to give myself a prize if I got right next week hardware. Which is looking more likely now.

 

[Arde5643]

I'm really saddened by how many people are doubting SMG's potential for massive appeal to diverse audiences.

 

[jj984jj]

Mhmmmm....I'd have to give myself a prize if I got right next week hardware. Which is looking more likely now.

Oh right I forgot about the price drop this week, that'll definitely boost sales.

 

[Brofist]

A lot of retail outlets have already gone ahead and dropped the PS3 price by the 5000 yen. Yodobashi, Bic etc..

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Thats not fair, it was supposed to be on Oct 17. Damn impatient retailers.

 

[Pureauthor]

I'm really saddened by how many people are doubting SMG's potential for massive appeal to diverse audiences.

3D Mario has less mass market appeal than 2D Mario. This really isn't in question.

We see SMG screens and go 'Whoa, look at the creativity! The colours! The fanservice!'

Mass market consumers see SMG and tilt their heads. "Is... that Mario, or it that Mario?'

 

[Jokeropia]

Fixed. PS3 hasn't killed any franchises yet, actually Bandai-Namco has had more success on the PS3 than Wii. I'm sure Koei will as well.

Gundam Musou can hardly be considered a success when Bandai-Namco expected it to sell four times and Koei almost eight times what it did.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

I guess nobody noticed that the DS is going back up, it's a good sign at least!

The Wii however... Nintendo better be praying that Super Mario Galaxy and Wii Fit can save the Wii in japan! I think yesterday's conference might help as well, delaying Smash Bros was probably a very good move IMO.

 

[womfalcs3]

Gundam Musou can hardly be considered a success when Bandai-Namco expected it to sell four times and Koei almost eight times what it did.

They released it when the PS3 didn't even sell a million units in Japan. You really think they expected the game to sell nearly 1.2 million copies?

 

[jj984jj]

Gundam Musou can hardly be considered a success when Bandai-Namco expected it to sell four times and Koei almost eight times what it did.

It'd be hard for any game to sell 1:1 with the hardware, much less better.

 

[spwolf]

awesome sales... you guys just wait for 5 years... (hello segata!) :lol

 

[spwolf]

Whats Enichi?? They probably actually made a profit on all those games.

they made profit on game that sells 40k? :lol

 

[Azelover]

Don't worry, the Wii will pick up now that Nintendo had a conference.

It will still go much lower than this. Have a look at the quarter before Nintendogs came out in Japan, it will stay this way until a quick one-week SMG boost, followed by a huge nearly permanent Wii Fit surge.

 

[Jokeropia]

They released it when the PS3 didn't even sell a million units in Japan. You really think they expected the game to sell nearly 1.2 million copies?

That's what they said. (Well, 1 million.) Koei said 2 million.

It'd be hard for any game to sell 1:1 with the hardware, much less better.

Which means it's hard for games to succeed on the PS3, especially big budget ones.

 

[test_account]

That's what they said. (Well, 1 million.) Koei said 2 million.

They probly said it, but that was before the launch, it couldnt be after. Knowledge/info must be taken into consideration. Its like you say "i will run (insert some race here) in 1 hour", then later you find out that the length of the race is 30km. There is no way that you can run this distance in 1 hour, just like its no way Gundam Mosou could sell 1-2 million on PS3 with the current installbase. If you then run the race in 3 hours, which is pretty good, i dont think anyone would say you failed because you said you where going to use 1 hour first. Same with Gundam Mosou, it shouldnt be considered a failure considering the userbase VS copies sold. Sure, Koei/Bandai-Namco probly hoped it would have sold much better and be alittle disapointed over this, but failure? Not under these circumstances.

Which means it's hard for games to succeed on the PS3, especially big budget ones.

It would be hard for any game on any system to sell 1:1 (unless its bundled hehe )

 

[Phife Dawg]

they made profit on game that sells 40k? :lol

It's possible for sure. You've been spoiled by the phenomenal success of DS software. PSP has lots of software below the 40k mark and not a lot of third parties had great success, yet they still make titles for it. They wouldn't do that if they couldn't make a dime on it.

It all depends on what the development (and marketing) costs were. A game like Scad Hammers could've made a profit with 40k sold, whereas a title like Heavenly Sword with insane development costs in comparison might not with make a profit until they sell 500k+.

They probly said it, but that was before the launch, it couldnt be after. Knowledge/info must be taken into consideration. Its like you say "i will run (insert some race here) in 1 hour", then later you find out that the length of the race is 30km. There is no way that you can run this distance in 1 hour, just like its no way Gundam Mosou could sell 1-2 million on PS3 with the current installbase. If you then run the race in 3 hours, which is pretty good, i dont think anyone would say you failed because you said you where going to use 1 hour first. Same with Gundam Mosou, it shouldnt be considered a failure considering the userbase VS copies sold. Sure, Koei/Bandai-Namco probly hoped it would have sold much better and be alittle disapointed over this, but failure? Not under these circumstances.

It would be hard for any game on any system to sell 1:1 (unless its bundled hehe )

Then we don't have a lot of failures on the new systems. GM failed to meet expectations big time, it was supposed to drive the system sales (which it did, albeit for a very short time).

Judging by the impressions on GAF this was also not just a cheap and quick rush-job but a good game. For the series at least, which is more or less a love or hate thing.

 

[Fafalada]

That's what they said. (Well, 1 million.) Koei said 2 million.

Namco also expected to sell like 1milion copies of RidgeRacer6.
In Japan.

I don't know who they have making forecasts, but whoever it is must be beyond optimism.

 

[test_account]

Then we don't have a lot of failures on the new systems.

How do you mean?

 

[P90]

I just said the huge fad of it is beginning to die and I still think so.

:lol

That is just blind ridiculousness. DQ IX alone renders your statement fission mailed.

 

[Frillen]

I guess nobody noticed that the DS is going back up, it's a good sign at least!

Well I think the new color released last week had a word in this week's spike

Anyway, where's Cheesy? I want an updated OP.

Also, where's first day sales? I want to see how much Lair bombed.

 

[Lobster]

they made profit on game that sells 40k? :lol

You realise it takes only about 50k for a developer to make a profit on the Ps2? (average game..say Gundam) Wii already has a similar structure to the GC so development costs would be cheaper which would make profiting easier.

 

[Phife Dawg]

How do you mean?

Well they all have a low install base. But even at that I'd consider a game like MnG on PS3 or Strikers on Wii (assuming both don't have insane legs like some DS titles) a failure since they didn't meet expectations. Same applies to third party software like Gundam Musou, RR7 on PS3 or Powerful Pro on Wii. You could vouch for them saying that they sell to a lower install-base, which is true but they failed to achieve reasonable expectations.

edit:
I'm not talking about 2 mill for GM or 1 mill for RR7 - those are way out of the line. But 500k for GM would've been a reasonable estimate for an apparently good game, which is merging two popular game series.

 

[d[-_-]b]

You realise it takes only about 50k for a developer to make a profit on the Ps2? (average game..say Gundam) Wii already has a similar structure to the GC so development costs would be cheaper which would make profiting easier.

lol stop responding to spwolf, he's a joke character as most people have accepted.

 

[Jokeropia]

They probly said it, but that was before the launch, it couldnt be after.

February 23.

Knowledge/info must be taken into consideration. Its like you say "i will run (insert some race here) in 1 hour", then later you find out that the length of the race is 30km. There is no way that you can run this distance in 1 hour, just like its no way Gundam Mosou could sell 1-2 million on PS3 with the current installbase. If you then run the race in 3 hours, which is pretty good, i dont think anyone would say you failed because you said you where going to use 1 hour first. Same with Gundam Mosou, it shouldnt be considered a failure considering the userbase VS copies sold. Sure, Koei/Bandai-Namco probly hoped it would have sold much better and be alittle disapointed over this, but failure? Not under these circumstances.

All these excuses only explain why the game sold below expectations, they don't change the fact that it did. In the end, publishers care about absolute sales rather than tie-ratios.

It would be hard for any game on any system to sell 1:1 (unless its bundled hehe )

Games on successful systems don't have to sell 1:1 to be successes.

 

[Lobster]

lol stop responding to spwolf, he's a joke character as most people have accepted.

I didn't catch that memo. I'll take it into consideration next time.

 

[test_account]

Well they all have a low install base. But even at that I'd consider a game like MnG on PS3 or Strikers on Wii (assuming both don't have insane legs like some DS titles) a failure since they didn't meet expectations. Same applies to third party software like Gundam Musou, RR7 on PS3 or Powerful Pro on Wii. You could vouch for them saying that they sell to a lower install-base, which is true but they failed to achieve reasonable expectations.

edit:
I'm not talking about 2 mill for GM or 1 mill for RR7 - those are way out of the line. But 500k for GM would've been a reasonable estimate for an apparently good game, which is merging two popular game series.

Well.. true that the installbases are small, but there are millions difference between PS3 and Wii. If a game sells 50k on PS3, its a bigger tie-ratio and if it sells 50k on Wii. So which is the biggest failure? Of course there are many other factors to the sale numbers if its a failure or not, this was just a quick example to show that the size of the userbase matters, even if both is relatively small.

You bring up a valid point there, it depends on how well people expect it to sell, first off the publisher/developer. Failure can be a relative thing. Like if you release a budget title and it only sells 15k, many people might see it as a failure, but maybe the publisher/developers didnt expect more than this. So in many cases its no right or wrong if a game failed or not.

 

[Luckyman]

If Namco/KOEI is not completely insane Mosou budjet must be in the lower end of next-gen games. And it´s on multiple platforms.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

awesome sales... you guys just wait for 5 years... (hello segata!) :lol

Yes, hello spwolf. Can we assume you're going to come in here each week and do this for the next 260 weeks?

If my prediction ends up being wrong, then I made a wrong prediction with numbers backing me. I'm willing to accept that, if that's the case. I followed logic and life intervened.

I'd much rather be wrong following logic and statistics than be right by following the joy-joy feeling a company gives me in my pee-pee, like certain gentlemen.