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[Yoboman]

I'm curious. Where exactly is the casual-gamer-PS2 audience this gen? Did they devolve into non-gaming types buying Wii Sports or have a large number of them just not moved into next gen?

I mean that was a huge audience, tens of millions world wide who were buying actual games who now have appeared to vanish. Or was PS2's audience largely filled up with a lot of non-gamers who bought it for the sake of owning something popular, but we just didn't realise?

PS3 has a really, really solid lineup of 3rd and first party games for Japan next year. But I'm concerned that audience just isn't there anymore in the same sense it was for PS2

 

[Eteric Rice]

I'm curious. Where exactly is the casual-gamer-PS2 audience this gen? Did they devolve into non-gaming types buying Wii Sports or have a large number of them just not moved into next gen?

I think the DS happened. A lot of the core types of games that these people liked are in droves on the DS (cept car sims, etc). That, plus the DS is cheap... Well, yeah.

 

[Yoboman]

I think the DS happened. A lot of the core types of games that these people liked are in droves on the DS (cept car sims, etc). That, plus the DS is cheap... Well, yeah.

Yeah, but GBA existed alongside PS2 as well

 

[Link]

I'm curious. Where exactly is the casual-gamer-PS2 audience this gen?

Still playing the PS2 by the looks of it.

 

[Lobster]

Ps2 still gets a heck load of games..

 

[Sharp]

Yeah, but GBA existed alongside PS2 as well

PSP = GBA then? Great hardware sales, and rounds out the top 50 software sales. Successful without being market leader.

 

[grandjedi6]

I'm curious. Where exactly is the casual-gamer-PS2 audience this gen? Did they devolve into non-gaming types buying Wii Sports or have a large number of them just not moved into next gen?

I mean that was a huge audience, tens of millions world wide who were buying actual games who now have appeared to vanish. Or was PS2's audience largely filled up with a lot of non-gamers who bought it for the sake of owning something popular, but we just didn't realise?

PS3 has a really, really solid lineup of 3rd and first party games for Japan next year. But I'm concerned that audience just isn't there anymore in the same sense it was for PS2

They've become separated so they are less noticable, where last gen they were all concentrated on one system. In Japan they've moved to the DS and PSP with a few going to the Wii and PS3. In America they are sticking with the PS2 or jumping on the 360 and Wii bandwagon.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Yeah, but GBA existed alongside PS2 as well

Yeah, but the GBA didn't pretty much own the market like DS does. I mean the market, not the handheld market.

The DS has also surpassed the GBA I believe.

 

[Xeke]

Yeah, but the GBA didn't pretty much own the market like DS does. I mean the market, not the handheld market.

The DS has also surpassed the GBA I believe.

Not even close.

According to Wikipedia the GBA is at 80 million.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Not even close.

According to Wikipedia the GBA is at 80 million.

I meant in Japan, but okay.

 

[Sage00]

Not even close. The GBA was up around 70 million.

According to Wikipedia, 80 million.

Perhaps he meant Japan?

Edit: I'm slow.

 

[Yoboman]

Yeah, but the GBA didn't pretty much own the market like DS does. I mean the market, not the handheld market.

The DS has also surpassed the GBA I believe.

Not quite, but it was still massive

 

[Xeke]

I meant in Japan, but okay.

Well sorry. That happened like months ago though...

 

[apujanata]

Jaguar? Can we at least make it a 3DO?

Actually, I was referring to Jaguar the Car brand (Like Aston Martin, Mercedes, BMW etc), not Jaguar the "failed" console (like 3DO, NGage etc).

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

For a while DS was behaving like a PS2 or a GBA. However, it seems to have become one of those parasitic twins and started selling well enough for two.

 

[dolemite]

For a while DS was behaving like a PS2 or a GBA. However, it seems to have become one of those parasitic twins and started selling well enough for two.

This is just unreal. Nintendo is on a roll with both the DS and Wii.

 

[Link]

For a while DS was behaving like a PS2 or a GBA. However, it seems to have become one of those parasitic twins and started selling well enough for two.

Amazing how parallel the PS2 and GBA lines are.

 

[BishopLamont]

Amazing how parallel the PS2 and GBA lines are.

Their LTD would've ended up the same too had the DS not come out. Sony's handheld takeover plan seem to have backfired.

They've become separated so they are less noticable, where last gen they were all concentrated on one system. In Japan they've moved to the DS and PSP with a few going to the Wii and PS3. In America they are sticking with the PS2 or jumping on the 360 and Wii bandwagon.

In America the 360 has the casual gamers, Wii has the casual non-gamers.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Amazing how parallel the PS2 and GBA lines are.

Yeah. A big part of that is that they were both early-March launches, so things like annual holiday bumps are taking place at about the same number of weeks after each launch.

 

[Cool Hand Luke]

Actually, I was referring to Jaguar the Car brand (Like Ashton Villa, Mercedes, BMW etc), not Jaguar the "failed" console (like 3DO, NGage etc).

Football fan?:lol

 

[Xisiqomelir]

If anyone needs a voodoo doll or something because they want to punish those evil third parties for not supporting the Wii... well I don't have one so please shut the fuck up.

It's pretty laughable that people thing these third parties are all going belly-up because they don't support Wii fully to your expectations. Especially Konami, who isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I hope we get some solid big-time games from third parties for the Wii, but the whining in these threads is getting ridiculous.

I think you're mistaking dispassionate industry observation and analysis for bitter tears, though I'm not quite sure how you came to that conclusion.

If you're talking about people like norinrad, they don't mind the status quo at all. They'll be happy to play Nintendo games. The presence of the 3rd parties would be a bonus, their absence is their own loss.

 

[BishopLamont]

I think you're mistaking dispassionate industry observation and analysis for bitter tears, though I'm not quite sure how you came to that conclusion.

If you're talking about people like norinrad, they don't mind the status quo at all. They'll be happy to play Nintendo games. The presence of the 3rd parties would be a bonus, their absence is their own loss.

Yeah pretty much, we're all hardcore gamers here on GAF, it doesn't really matter where the games go, we'll still play em either way. Although the possibilities of awesome waggle games are bad if third party choose to ignore it, it doesn't really matter in the end for us gamers. I also doubt the casual market on the Wii really care either, since they're happy enough with Nintendo games. Nintendo themselves have gone through two generations with lackluster third party support, they won't be going nowhere. So yeah in the end it's third party that loses the most if they don't find success on the Wii.

 

[fresquito]

The situation of third parties on the Wii is quite a paradigm.

There's this bad interpretation of the market where third parties will try to compete with Nintendo and offer the consumer a similar product to what Nintendo might produce. There's this thinking where third parties believe Wii consumers only want Nintendo kind of games. They will produce titles that are similar to those created by Nintendo, in concept, instead of trying to differentiate themselves by releasing the games they are well known for.

For istance you have Capcom that has released two Resident Evil that have sold quite well. And then you have two other products that are very rare for Capcom standards that have bombed hard.

I'm guessing the consumer just want companies to offer their best. At this point I won't argue about the quality of Zack & Wiki and We Love Golf, just've played Z&W and it's pretty awesome. But my mind tells me people expect something different from Capcom. Capcom fans are expecting other kind of games.

This argument can be representative of other companies that are failing to find their place under the Wii hood.

 

[farnham]

I'm guessing the consumer just want companies to offer their best. At this point I won't argue about the quality of Zack & Wiki and We Love Golf, just've played Z&W and it's pretty awesome. But my mind tells me people expect something different from Capcom. Capcom fans are expecting other kind of games.

I kinda expect games like Gotcha Force for the Wii..

I'm curious. Where exactly is the casual-gamer-PS2 audience this gen? Did they devolve into non-gaming types buying Wii Sports or have a large number of them just not moved into next gen?

casual PS2 gamers where largely slow adopters.. they will watch the market playing their old consoles for a while and will go with the winner.. which is probably going to be the Wii.

 

[donny2112]

For istance you have Capcom that has released two Resident Evil that have sold quite well. And then you have two other products that are very rare for Capcom standards that have bombed hard.

You forgot Sengoku Basara 2 Heroes.

But my mind tells me people expect something different from Capcom.

I continue to believe that most consumers are oblivious to the developer/publisher of the games they buy. This may just be a U.S. thing, though.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I continue to believe that most consumers are oblivious to the developer/publisher of the games they buy. This may just be a U.S. thing, though.

Of course. Otherwise, why would you have things like Project Sylpheed saying "FROM THE MAKERS OF FINAL FANTASY"--if Square-Enix was actually known outside of nerd circles, it wouldn't be necessary to list "Final Fantasy" as a pedigree thing.

Hell, there's a substantial segment of consumers who just interchange Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft when referring to all video game companies and consoles.

 

[fresquito]

You forgot Sengoku Basara 2 Heroes.

I continue to believe that most consumers are oblivious to the developer/publisher of the games they buy. This may just be a U.S. thing, though.

Well, I didn't make myself clear enough.

What I meant is that people usually buy games from "x" company because they think these games are cool. Usually hardcore fans follow a game because the dev/publisher too. What happens with third parties on the Wii is that they release Nintendified games. They make them more childish or broad appealing just to fill in the supposed role they have to have on Nintendo consoles.

If a company is known for their mature action games and the best they do is mature action games, I'm guessing they should release mature action games on the Wii. It's like seeing Valve releasing a party game instead of a FPS.

Sengoku Basara Heroes is a different beast altogether, since it's a port and was released along the PS2 version at a high price.

 

[liuelson]

casual PS2 gamers where largely slow adopters.. they will watch the market playing their old consoles for a while and will go with the winner.. which is probably going to be the Wii.

Can we get some numbers or a graph showing cumulative adoption of the PS2 over time? Does it follow an S-shaped saturation curve? Assuming the vast majority of PS2 owners purchased the system after year 2, and assuming that people don't change their console adoption behavior (early adopter v. late adopter), that would suggest the vast majority of PS2 owners have not purchased a next gen system yet.

Still, Nintendo's strategy (and pricing) with the Wii may be sufficiently different to change people's adoption behavior this gen...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Can we get some numbers or a graph showing cumulative adoption of the PS2 over time? Does it follow an S-shaped saturation curve?

Japanese sales from Famitsu. Years 2-4 were bigger than year 1, but that was largely to do with early shortages.

Worldwide production shipments. The first year it was mostly available only in Japan so it's especially low. Things did pick up in the next few years, but looking at the long view there's not a major S going on.

Assuming the vast majority of PS2 owners purchased the system after year 2, and assuming that people don't change their console adoption behavior (early adopter v. late adopter), that would suggest the vast majority of PS2 owners have not purchased a next gen system yet.

That's an easy one, yeah. PS2 is at ~120 million worldwide, and X360+PS3+Wii is probably around a third of that now. In Japan, too, X360+PS3+Wii currently sum up to about a third of PS2; 7 million to 21 million.

 

[mutsu]

It's quite amazing how much Mario & Sonic Olympics is selling. The first week it was released, everyone thought it bombed hard. Now a few weeks later, it is selling like hot cakes.

Can anyone create a graph showing the sales of Mario & Sonic Olympics, and put it against Super Mario Galaxy?

 

[botticus]

It's quite amazing how much Mario & Sonic Olympics is selling. The first week it was released, everyone thought it bombed hard. Now a few weeks later, it is selling like hot cakes.

Can anyone create a graph showing the sales of Mario & Sonic Olympics, and put it against Super Mario Galaxy?

I don't doubt there are a lot of people in the world like my wife who, last night (a month and a half after it came out in the US), while browsing the Wii section at Blockbuster, said "Oh wow, Mario & Sonic at the Olympics? We should get that, that sounds like so much fun!"

I do wonder if it will get a marketing push when the Olympics roll around.

 

[Jonnyram]

I'm curious. Where exactly is the casual-gamer-PS2 audience this gen? Did they devolve into non-gaming types buying Wii Sports or have a large number of them just not moved into next gen?

I'm not sure if you're trying to be witty, but what aspect of Wii Sports is not a game?

 

[Lobster]

I'm not sure if you're trying to be witty, but what aspect of Wii Sports is not a game?

Going by what the majority of the forum thinks, everyone is able to enjoy it.

 

[nextgeneration]

It's quite amazing how much Mario & Sonic Olympics is selling. The first week it was released, everyone thought it bombed hard. Now a few weeks later, it is selling like hot cakes.

Can anyone create a graph showing the sales of Mario & Sonic Olympics, and put it against Super Mario Galaxy?

Did this through Google docs. Hope it works.

null

 

[donny2112]

I'm not sure if you're trying to be witty, but what aspect of Wii Sports is not a game?

Well, let's look at our checklist.

* On a Nintendo system? Check.
* Million-seller? Check.

Seems pretty clear to me.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It's quite amazing how much Mario & Sonic Olympics is selling. The first week it was released, everyone thought it bombed hard. Now a few weeks later, it is selling like hot cakes.

Can anyone create a graph showing the sales of Mario & Sonic Olympics, and put it against Super Mario Galaxy?

Main ways of comparison. Using what we know from Famitsu.

Weekly numbers, time from launch
Cumulative numbers, time from launch

Weekly numbers, by date
Cumulative numbers, by date

 

[mutsu]

Main ways of comparison. Using what we know from Famitsu.

Weekly numbers, time from launch
Cumulative numbers, time from launch

Weekly numbers, by date
Cumulative numbers, by date

Thanks for the graphs.

Really looks like for those who are picking up Mario Galaxy, they are also picking up a copy of Mario & Sonic. It might even become the next Mario Party 8.

 

[Lobster]

Thanks for the graphs.

Really looks like for those who are picking up Mario Galaxy, they are also picking up a copy of Mario & Sonic. It might even become the next Mario Party 8.

It could be bigger than MP8..The numbers for it are very consistent, they don't drop much.

 

[Deku]

Well, let's look at our checklist.

* On a Nintendo system? Check.
* Million-seller? Check.

Seems pretty clear to me.

WiiSports was #7 in last year's GAF GOTY voting. I think it gets enough respect even here, but its detractors have an incentive to scream the loudest given the significance of the game as a hardware mover and as perhaps something that is the vanguard of change.

I am saying this despite not bieng a huge fan of Wii Sports.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It could be bigger than MP8..The numbers for it are very consistent, they don't drop much.

M&S is doing OK, but even with the aid of a holiday bump it's doing much less than MP8 was in July and August.

 

[Lobster]

M&S is doing OK, but even with the aid of a holiday bump it's doing much less than MP8 was in July and August.

Depends on M&S legs really, if it keeps getting a consistent 30k-50k week (non holiday) for a while it could surpass MP8. I predict it will do another 100k in the latest MC charts which will push it to 400k.

BTW your chart has M&S at roughly 200k.

 

[liuelson]

Japanese sales from Famitsu. Years 2-4 were bigger than year 1, but that was largely to do with early shortages.

Worldwide production shipments. The first year it was mostly available only in Japan so it's especially low. Things did pick up in the next few years, but looking at the long view there's not a major S going on.

Thank you - as always, great data! It doesn't seem to follow the overall traditional (general technology) adoption pattern - it almost looks like a combination of several saturation curves where each bump in the curve represents a new "market" (distinct group of PS2 adopters), reaching saturation, and then another bump (price drop?).

That has a lot of implications. Technology adoption usually follows an S shaped curve because of the network effect - the more people have it, the more valuable it becomes to others. For consoles, we've assumed a network (aka bandwagon) effect based on 3rd party software: more people with X console -> more 3rd party software for X console -> more valuable X console becomes to the next person.

Without an S shaped adoption curve, that undermines the whole argument about the importance of 3rd party software contributing to a network effect.

EDIT:

Depends on M&S legs really, if it keeps getting a consistent 30k-50k week (non holiday) for a while it could surpass MP8. I predict it will do another 100k in the latest MC charts which will push it to 400k.

The unique factor for M&S is the tie to a specific global event - the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. You can expect increasing sales leading up to that event, and a severe drop-off afterwards. And if Nintendo can launch the Wii in China near the August 2008 timeframe...

 

[cvxfreak]

Didn't Nintendo mention their intention to launch Wii in China with M & S as a premiere game a few months back?

 

[donny2112]

BTW your chart has M&S at roughly 200k.

Yes, that would be because the last official Famitsu data we got (20071216) had it at 206,765. The unofficial Famitsu numbers from 20071223 had it at 307K, but JoshuaJSlone usually just uses the official Famitsu numbers for software.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I finally got around to adding in the X360 sales data januswon has been providing from the monthly Famitsu Xbox 360, as well as the lifetime X360 Top 50 we got a few days ago. Thanks to the primary sources being written in English, or an image from which I have no ability to Japanese-transcribe, a lot of these new entries to the database have only English titles. I also left out a few data points from januswon's lists where multiple SKUs were temporarily combined into one bit of sales information.

This is especially interesting in that it gives us a view we don't ofen see: sales of games on the bottom of the barrel. Usually if a game drops below several thousand a week, we never hear about it. With these numbers, a game could sell several hundred a week and still make the monthly Top 10. Some of these won't even make it to the Yearly Top 500. Example: See Bullet Witch (Platinum Collection) crawl to 11K over 6 months.

It also makes it appear as if X360 has more games released for it than Wii or PS3, since the lesser-performing PS3/Wii games we just don't see, and thus they don't get put into the database. Even for the PS3/Wii games that are in the database, the lesser-performing ones are more likely to drop off after a week and not receive further updates for a long time if ever, so it makes X360 appear unusually strong in the third-party comparison... well, at least the part you scroll down to see.

It's also another way to notice that sometimes Famitsu stops tracking games altogether if they become insignificant enough. There are some numbers that never change from the end of 2006 through the recent X360 Top 50. Example: Near-launch game Dynasty Warriors 5 Special has the same LTD given at the middle of 2006, the end of 2006, and the recent Top 50.

Yes, that would be because the last official Famitsu data we got (20071216) had it at 206,765. The unofficial Famitsu numbers from 20071223 had it at 307K, but JoshuaJSlone usually just uses the official Famitsu numbers for software.

Yeah. Putting in both early and final hardware is pretty easy and beneficial, but inputting most of the software twice a week would be pretty ugly, so it's a week behind.

 

[donny2112]

It's also another way to notice that sometimes Famitsu stops tracking games altogether if they become insignificant enough. There are some numbers that never change from the end of 2006 through the recent X360 Top 50. Example: Near-launch game Dynasty Warriors 5 Special has the same LTD given at the middle of 2006, the end of 2006, and the recent Top 50.

When I was inserting the new LTDs, there were 12 games out of the 360 Top 50 that didn't change from my previous data. In a way, it's nice, because you don't have to worry about a game selling much more out of the Top 500's eye. It's not nice in that, at least with NPD, games can still sell a little bit here and there for years. It's not significant, though, so from an estimator's standpoint, it's "good enough."

Yeah. Putting in both early and final hardware is pretty easy and beneficial, but inputting most of the software twice a week would be pretty ugly, so it's a week behind.

I usually don't since it means going back to translating it all by hand, and with only a small fraction of the title versus the full title, publisher, system, release date, and previous week's ranking for correlation. However as I don't expect us to see an official 12/16-23 week from Famitsu, I did do it from that period, and I'll most likely do it for the 12/24-30 period, as well.

 

[apujanata]

Football fan?:lol

Oops. You got me there. Should be Aston Martin. . And yeah, I am more familiar with Soccer team than American Football team.

 

[PantherLotus]

I think the majority of the commentary regarding 3rd parties and the Wii is entirely thoughtless and devoid of any real history, logic, foresight, or perspective.

 

[Link]

Do tell.

 

[apujanata]

I think the majority of the commentary regarding 3rd parties and the Wii is entirely thoughtless and devoid of any real history, logic, foresight, or perspective.

Now do a recap, together with the quote from the most prominent / exemplary posts. I know you can do that