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[Oxx]

I can't imagine Fragile being a massive success, but if it only takes around 20k sales to make the top ten these days I guess it isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

For reference, if it had released one year earlier the barrier to making that week's top 10 would've been about 15K. The week after was bigger, but it had some giant games like SSBB and DMC4.

 

[Jonnyram]

There is always that chance it doesn't even sell 5k though.

 

[kottila]

There is always that chance it doesn't even sell 5k though.

At least Amazon.jp has already sold out it initial supply (If I understand the page correctly). But I have no idea of how much the retailer has sent out or how big Amazon is in Japan (I'm guessing it's not that big at all), so that dosen't say much.

 

[Kenka]

Fragile is only the first of many attempts to seduce the hardcore crowd in Japan this year. It may flop, yes but consequences wouldn't be too big.

I am way more worried about Muramasa though. Not a streamline genre, not a big name behind but still a very polished title. I wish it could succeed.

 

[schuelma]

These smaller mid tier Wii titles would be better served coming out late in the year after (presumably) MH3, SW3, Tales 10, and possibly Crystal Bearers come out.

 

[schuelma]

Bah

Weeks without early leaks are not cool at all

 

[John Dunbar]

These smaller mid tier Wii titles would be better served coming out late in the year after (presumably) MH3, SW3, Tales 10, and possibly Crystal Bearers come out.

I'm drawing a blank at the moment, what is SW3?

 

[Dascu]

I'm drawing a blank at the moment, what is SW3?

Samurai Warriors 3, a Musou title.

 

[PantherLotus]

Fragile might be the first game that I actually don't want to bomb for the Wii, except DQS. And DQS was terrible. I really just like the music, but who here thinks it will do more than 12k its first week? It has all the markings of a Wii disaster.

 

[schuelma]

Fragile might be the first game that I actually don't want to bomb for the Wii, except DQS. And DQS was terrible. I really just like the music, but who here thinks it will do more than 12k its first week? It has all the markings of a Wii disaster.

I think it will do 20K at least. I'm feeling frisky. (of course watch the shipment be like 12K :lol )

 

[RpgN]

Ehh, the situation wasn't quite that bad. It was the first to get the FF I and II remakes that sold well for Wonderswan games and eventually did better on PlayStation and GBA. When it got Final Fantasy IV the game wasn't yet 11 years older, so it was younger than Chrono Trigger today.

But yeah, definitely FF XIII is many times a bigger deal.

Okay okay, it wasn't that bad, but at least we're in agreement

About Fragile, it doesn't look good indeed. Hopefully it won't bomb Ah, who am I kidding?

 

[Spiegel]

I forgot, why are we expecting a bomba when, per example, Trusty Bell sold 43k first week on the fucking 360 IN Japan 2 years ago?

Fragile was announced in November/December 07' iirc, has a large budget (as said by the producers), 7500k potential buyers and it's competing against nothing. It shouldn't bomb.

 

[schuelma]

I forgot, why are we expecting a bomba when, per example, Trusty Bell sold 43k first week on the fucking 360 IN Japan 2 years ago?

Fragile was announced in November/December 07' iirc, has a large budget (as said by the producers) and 7500k potential buyers. It shouldn't bomb.

Because original IP on Wii doesn't have a very good track record.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I forgot, why are we expecting a bomba when, per example, Trusty Bell sold 43k first week on the fucking 360 IN Japan 2 years ago?

Fragile was announced in November/December 07' iirc, has a large budget (as said by the producers) and 7500k potential buyers. It shouldn't bomb.

Large budget is a relative term i think.

 

[Jokeropia]

Ah ok, i see what you mean, thanks for the answer! By the way, will it change anything regarding the publishers how FFXIII will sell? I am sure that publisher will take notes on how FFXIII sells, but will it change anything when it comes to the games that the PS3 will get?

I don't think so. I suspect it will perform in accordance with most publisher expectations.

Because the console games have not expanded the audience, YET MH2 could match the heights MHP was at when it was released. Of course it didn't show legs, but what the data also says is that its possible for a console MH to get near handheld MH sales at the time. Basically, if MH2 scenario was repeated with MH3 right now, MH3 would get near MHP2G (2-2.5m) and die while MHP2G could keep going over 3m and more.

Of course its totally right to believe that MH handheld is way too big now to move that easily to a console or that the fanbase will rather wait now for a handheld version, but what isn't right is to say that MH can't get as high as on a handheld putting up MH2 sales as justification.

I just don't see what the difference is between the people that had already purchased MHP by the time MH2 was released and the ones that did it afterwards that makes the first group interested in MH2 but the second not.

 

[cvxfreak]

Can Dissidia do a million at this rate? I don't think so, on the hinges of its original release alone. Maybe with a re-release or way out there from now.

 

[schuelma]

Can Dissidia do a million at this rate? I don't think so, on the hinges of its original release alone. Maybe with a re-release or way out there from now.

Yeah I think it is pretty unlikely. We'll see how it does the next few weeks, but momentum is probably going to keep slowing.

 

[Spiegel]

Because original IP on Wii doesn't have a very good track record.

So new IPs have better chance of selling well IN Japan on the 360? CRAZY

Nobody can complain if more third parties don't jump on the Wii bandwagon then.

Can Dissidia do a million at this rate? I don't think so, on the hinges of its original release alone. Maybe with a re-release or way out there from now.

Crisis Core sold 100k+ more after the fourth week (26k that week and 797k LTD /data from sinobi/) but Dissidia is holding better.

I'd say 950k sold is a lock. 1 million is possible

 

[Durante]

I forgot, why are we expecting a bomba when, per example, Trusty Bell sold 43k first week on the fucking 360 IN Japan 2 years ago?

Fragile was announced in November/December 07' iirc, has a large budget (as said by the producers), 7500k potential buyers and it's competing against nothing. It shouldn't bomb.

I was about to post something similar. It's an apparently solid game in a genre that is absolutely starved on the system, and it's on Wii. If it doesn't sell much better than Trusty Bell did on 360 2 years ago then something, somewhere is going very wrong.

 

[swerve]

I forgot, why are we expecting a bomba when, per example, Trusty Bell sold 43k first week on the fucking 360 IN Japan 2 years ago?

Fragile was announced in November/December 07' iirc, has a large budget (as said by the producers), 7500k potential buyers and it's competing against nothing. It shouldn't bomb.

The people who browse the Wii section in game stores are not the people who typically buy quirky 3D RPGs, I reckon. So I reckon it's got its work cut out to be anything other than a low low seller.

I think it takes Nintendo-level development effort and marketing to get a game in a traditional genre to be noticed on Wii in Japan. If Fragile really is a top-tier project from a top-tier team, then they need top-tier marketing to get that message out there. For whatever reason, that hasn't happened.

I might, of course, be wrong.

Maybe.

Unlikely, but maybe.

 

[markatisu]

Do we know what kind of advertising/retail push Fragile is going to get?? That seems to be one the indicators (along with initial shipment) if the publisher is expecting a lot in terms of sales

 

[schuelma]

I was about to post something similar. It's an apparently solid game in a genre that is absolutely starved on the system, and it's on Wii. If it doesn't sell much better than Trusty Bell did on 360 2 years ago then something, somewhere is going very wrong.

I don't know if you can compare it to a traditional RPG. I know it's been described as such, but from all the gameplay descriptions it definitely seems to be more exploration based. I'm doubting whether Fragile is going to appeal to the same audience that bought something like ToS:KoR for instance.

On the other hand, maybe it will appeal to people who bought and presumably enjoyed Fatal Frame?

 

[donny2112]

If it doesn't sell much better than Trusty Bell did on 360 2 years ago then something, somewhere is going very wrong.

The Wii's userbase has been going "wrong" for core games for a while now. The hope is that it will improve when bigger core games come out, bring their followers, and then those followers will start looking to buy some of those mid-tier core games. Fragile's not going to turn that around on its own, and frankly, I'm at a loss as to why it's suddenly supposed to be looked at as a gauge for the future potential for the system.

 

[Rolf NB]

I want to build a sentence around the word "tragile" but I'm creatively exhausted.

 

[test_account]

I don't think so. I suspect it will perform in accordance with most publisher expectations.

Ye, me too, i dont think it will change too much about which games the PS3 will get I agree that the publishers will probably take note on how much FFXIII is selling, but if it wont change much or anything about which games that will come out for the PS3, what will the publishers take note(s) of, except to see how many copies of FFXII that are being sold?

 

[jeremy1456]

Do we know how heavily Fragile has been advertised?

If I remember correctly Trusty Bell got a decent amount of advertising.

 

[PantherLotus]

JJS: is there any way to tell how recent garaph has been updated? I was thinking it was a 2 week lag but I want to be certain before running with this stuff.

 

[donny2112]

JJS: is there any way to tell how recent garaph has been updated?

http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php

That'd be my guess.

 

[t3nmilez]

I personally haven't seen much advertising of Fragile around here.

 

[Jonnyram]

I forgot, why are we expecting a bomba when, per example, Trusty Bell sold 43k first week on the fucking 360 IN Japan 2 years ago?

Trusty Bell was an RPG! Usually RPGs sell quite well, and much better than, say, adventure games.

 

[Spiegel]

The Wii's userbase has been going "wrong" for core games for a while now. The hope is that it will improve when bigger core games come out, bring their followers, and then those followers will start looking to buy some of those mid-tier core games. Fragile's not going to turn that around on its own, and frankly, I'm at a loss as to why it's suddenly supposed to be looked at as a gauge for the future potential for the system.

So you don't see a problem on the future potential for the Wii when lots of third party core games are bombing, but not so long ago you dissmissed the possibility of third parties jumping on the psp because some titles underperformed years ago (and not as bad as the wii games). Double standards much?

Oh, third party games are doing like shit on the Wii but don't worry *third party publisher* because that doesn't matter, Monster Hunter will change everything! Just stop developing your game and release it in 2010.
And again, how is Monster Hunter changing anything when you are predicting the game doing only 500k. DQS was released two years ago, sold 500k and nothing changed.

Fragile SHOULDN'T bomb. There are 7.5 million Wiis in Japan and the game is competing against an anime game (Haruhi) and a port of a ds game (FFCC), there's nothing else for the wii in the next weeks

Trusty Bell was an RPG! Usually RPGs sell quite well, and much better than, say, adventure games.

Fragile is an ActionRPG, isn't it?

 

[t3nmilez]

Fragile SHOULDN'T bomb. There are 7.5 million Wiis in Japan and the game is competing against an anime game (Haruhi) and a port of a ds game (FFCC), there's nothing else for the wii in the next weeks

Haruhi will probably outsell Fragile. It definitely has better advertising, the series is still fairly popular, and looks like an overall fun game. Hell, I don't know much about the series but it actually looks like something I would be interested in buying. Fragile also looks interesting but I really don't know much about it at all, other than some basic details I've picked up from magazines and message boards.

Fragile kind of looks like an anime game from what I can tell, so maybe it's being heavily advertised in that crowd? I know for a fact that Haruhi is definitely being heavily advertised in there, so hopefully the genres are diverse enough that they won't compete too much against each other. Most of the sales promotions I've seen for Fragile are by the same companies that have promotions for anime-style games though (same stores that are doing special promotion for Haruhi).

 

[Vinnk]

Do we know how heavily Fragile has been advertised?

If I remember correctly Trusty Bell got a decent amount of advertising.

I forgot it was coming out soon and I was at a game store yesterday. So signs point to "no". Even at TGS there were only 2 demo stations. No TV ads. No posters. The Otaku know it is coming but no one else. Its sky crawlers all over again.

The saddest thing is that SC Legends got decent ads. Seems Namco can only put effort into production OR promotion. Not both.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

Where in the world are this week's numbers?

 

[Vinnk]

I think Haruhi will outsell Fragile. The anime is very popular. It looks like an actual good use of the franchise and it has been advertised (not heavily but the usual amount for a B-class Wii title).

FFCC is a wildcard. I hope people won`t be suckered into buying a DS game on the Wii (because I don't want Square to assume thats what people want) but the FF name alone could make this the best selling title of the week. Which would be sad since from what I played of Fragile, it is a great effort and the type of Wii game the core have been demanding.

I fear a lot of dissapointment is incoming.

 

[donny2112]

So you don't see a problem on the future potential for the Wii when lots of third party core games are bombing, but not so long ago you dissmissed the possibility of third parties jumping on the psp because some titles underperformed years ago (and not as bad as the wii games). Double standards much?

Strawman much? :lol

The potential for core games is there or Super Mario Galaxy wouldn't have sold 900K despite Nintendo's post-launch advertising push. The potential for core games is there or Super Smash Bros. Brawl wouldn't have sold over 1.7 million, Mario Kart over 2 million. My position on the PSP has not significantly changed, either. If you want to put a Monster Hunter-type game on the system or a blockbuster title with a big advertising push (e.g. Crisis Core which sold the system for years before it came out), then the PSP is fine. Otherwise, you better be fine with and budget for 200-300K in sales and see anything over that as a bonus.

And again, how is Monster Hunter changing anything when you are predicting the game doing only 500k. DQS was released two years ago, sold 500k and nothing changed.

And DQS is supposed to be some hardcore game with a devoted following that is likely to pick up more titles after getting the game they bought the system for? You can't be serious. :lol

Fragile SHOULDN'T bomb.

Lots of games that shouldn't bomb do, even on the best-system-ever-made-for-third-parties PS2. I'm not saying Fragile will, since I haven't really considered it much. I never thought of it as a bellwether title for the Wii (why is it being considered one now, by the way?).

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Here's my prediction for "Fragile". People are going to have no idea about the expectations on the game or how far it was pushed, see it do under 100k, then label it a bomb when it probably met expectations.

I am way more worried about Muramasa though. Not a streamline genre, not a big name behind but still a very polished title. I wish it could succeed.

It's a successor to a game so niche that even Gaf doesn't understand or know how to play it. I think Marvelous said they predicted it to sell somewhere around 70k LTD.

 

[Vinnk]

Here's my prediction for "Fragile". People are going to have no idea about the expectations on the game or how far it was pushed, see it do under 100k, then label it a bomb when it probably met expectations.

If Fragile can do 100k, I would be very happy. I am worroed its not going to do even 40k.

No ads, no info, no hype.

I played the game at TGS (and loved it) and even I still don't really know what its about (the demo was very limited). How is the non-otaku gamer going to know?

There are STILL WKC ads on TV and the game is selling despite the scathing reviews. Just because people know about it and see it as the next big thing.

Unless there is some MAJOR Japanese internet hype going on for this game I predict bomba on the scale of Sky Crawlers, Let's Tap and Disaster.

 

[jeremy1456]

It's a successor to a game so niche that even Gaf doesn't understand or know how to play it. I think Marvelous said they predicted it to sell somewhere around 70k LTD.

I'm sorry but if you can play a game 'wrong' then it's simply broken, or due to horrible game design.

With that said, Odin Sphere isn't one of those games. I liked it, but maybe others didn't.

 

[schuelma]

Unless there is some MAJOR Japanese internet hype going on for this game I predict bomba on the scale of Sky Crawlers, Let's Tap and Disaster.

It makes little sense to me that the console that probably most needs advertising rarely gets any.

the bigotry of low expectations I suppose

 

[donny2112]

On the other hand, maybe it will appeal to people who bought and presumably enjoyed Fatal Frame?

I noticed in the promotional video that there seemed to be a few flashlight sections. Do you know if Fragile controls the flashlight with the IR, like Fatal Frame should have?

 

[Vinnk]

Part of it is of coure Nintendos own fault.

They should help showcase these titles.
They should have a booth at TGS.
They should put some of these fantastic games into their hardware ads like Sony and Microsoft do. (FFXIII ads were being put out by Sony before the hardware even launched)

But the other Part is on Namcos shoulders. For people to buy your game you have to let them know it exists.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't know if you can compare it to a traditional RPG. I know it's been described as such, but from all the gameplay descriptions it definitely seems to be more exploration based. I'm doubting whether Fragile is going to appeal to the same audience that bought something like ToS:KoR for instance.

On the other hand, maybe it will appeal to people who bought and presumably enjoyed Fatal Frame?

Trusty Bell. It should do better. I mean, the userbase disparity alone should help it out.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[*Guaraná]

when is NPD day?

 

[bttb]

.

 

[Kagari]

Wow @ Dissidia. And WKC in the top 10 still?

 

[Busaiku]

__. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 13,300 / 4,985,700

Oh, wow.
It should hit 5 million in 2 weeks.

 

[markatisu]

Here's my prediction for "Fragile". People are going to have no idea about the expectations on the game or how far it was pushed, see it do under 100k, then label it a bomb when it probably met expectations.

Pretty much GAF standard