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Media Create Sales 12/31 - 1/6 2008

Segata Sanshiro said:
He was banned for coming into threads, posting the same old block of text paraphrased differently, copping an "I'm right and you're wrong" attitude, and refusing to debate any of his points. If it happened once in a while, he'd still be with us, but virtually every one of his posts followed that pattern.

He pulled an attitude that because he read/wrote/sold Blue Ocean or whatever, that he was some amazing prophet that couldn't be wrong, when really you didn't have to read a goofy marketing book for stupid executives to come to the same conclusions the Blue Ocean book did along a nearly identical path.

HOLY SHIT YOU MEAN TRYING TO CREATE A NEW UNCONTESTED MARKET IS BETTER THAN DIVING INTO A HOTLY CONTESTED MARKET FULL OF COMPETITION THAT YOU DON'T HAVE THE RESOURCES TO COMPETE WITH IS A GOOD IDEA??

ZANG! SOMEONE BETTER TELL EVERY NEW SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS EVER THIS IDEA.

To be fair this was largely in contrast to the "The Wii is doomed!" sentiment that was spiralling out of control on GAF at the time. Not to excuse it, just for perspective.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
To be fair this was largely in contrast to the "The Wii is doomed!" sentiment that was spiralling out of control on GAF at the time. Not to excuse it, just for perspective.
Yeah, but he wasn't the only one optimistic on Wii (though he acted as though he was), and he didn't seem all that interested in conversation. He just wanted people to gather 'round and hear his dulcet tones as he spake of what he just read in Marketing class.
 

EDarkness

Member
Vinnk said:
That is true. THe DS proved itself to be a choice for the hardcore gamer, and it already has that demograpic and the one that moved away for the Gamecube. The Wii has a lot to prove.

I've always felt that people have unrealistic expectations from the Wii. A lot of the "core" gamers want pretty games or traditional games, and it just doesn't really do that or do it well. It doesn't do HD games, either. I doubt it'll be many big budget games, and it's not the version most people would choose in the case of multi-platform ports. The fact that it has survived this long and is headed towards being the market leader is something, but like the Gamecube, I doubt it can sustain it over the long haul. As a Wii owner with many games, I've recently come to this conclusion and have been moving towards other systems. I doubt I'm the only one in this boat. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the next couple of years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the gaming landscape changed by the end of the generation.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
ethelred said:
I really don't think the DS should be lumped in with the Wii. The Wii's problems are its own. The DS has proven to have a far larger demographic appeal and was always, from the very start, pushed and marketed as a gamer's system +... the exact opposite as the Wii.

DS had a very similar problem when it came to third party stuff. Basically it was FF III announced right before launch and then very little else...until the system exploded. That's why it's having such a big third party rush since mid '07 that will last until god knows when.

Wii still needs to have that one big third party game in Japan to really open eyes. Will it ever get it? Time will tell. I will tell you this though, the Wii already has more western support than the DS ever had, with actual effort being put into some, but nowhere near all games.
 

donny2112

Member
Stumpokapow said:
It would be an explanation of where the Gamecube owners in exodus WENT.

I don't think where they went is as important to the Wii's current situation as they went. The presumption is that a significant part of the early core gamers who own a console also owned the previous iteration. Since GameCube lost most of its previous generation of core gamers, the Wii had less of a pool to draw from. This is not an excuse for third-party/core game sales, as they're bad. It's an attempt to understand why they're bad, and in so doing, possibly see a path to improve them.

Stumpokapow said:
What I'm saying is that it strikes me that the core gamers from GameCube must be somewhere else. Whether that's another home console, another last-gen console, handhelds, mobile, flash games, whatever... it strikes me odd that those core gamers would just disappear from the market entirely just because the Cube bottomed out.

My focus was to look at the Wii situation and see how the GameCube's problems could have had something to do with it. Hopefully you see by my above statement that I wasn't saying they disappeared into thin air.

Stumpokapow said:
My argument is this: third-party first-year Wii sales have been poor, even for the standards of their quality, investment level, marketing budget, etc.

I don't think I've said otherwise. :/ I've even extended it to core games, including first-party ones.

Stumpokapow said:
Titles topping out at 10,000 units is unheard of on pretty much any platform except the Xbox.

That is false. We don't see them as much outside of the current data sets because the current data sets are so much more complete than what we have for previous years. However, they definitely were there.

Random Example:
20030119 PS2 Evolution Snowboarding 2789 / NEW

Stumpokapow said:
So, without reference to the PS2 since we're considering this to be off limits,

We can talk about the PS2 all you want. I'd probably enjoy talking about the PS2, seeing as we have the data for it. However using the PS2 as a measuring stick for third-party sales to any current system automatically makes every current system a distinct failure.

Stumpokapow said:
what would you expect some of these titles to do?

Does it matter what I expected any of those games to do?

The only one I cared about off the top of my head is We Love Golf. I would've thought something approaching Mario Golf levels would've been good for that (GCN - 63K (176K)).

JoshuaJSlone said:
I'm still just a fan of the "holiday bump" theory, rather than attributing it to something else. Many times over the last couple months I've compared SMG to other late October/early November Nintendo games, particularly 2006's Kirby Squeak Squad. SMG had a much bigger first week, but past that they've behaved very similarly.

Could be. It's telling that Nintendo put out a whole new series of ads weeks after launch just to describe to people what kind of game it was, though. I doubt they would've had to do that with Kirby's Squeak Squad.
 

KINGMOKU

Member
Yeah, this thread keeps popping up with new things, that are everything that I dont want to see.


I thought that the numbers would be previewed by now, but, alas, the holidays, they ruin our fun...
 

donny2112

Member
Vinnk said:
Since I hang out with gamers who own all the main consoles I forget that there was indeed a large exodus from GC in 2004. Only the hardest of the hardcore (and the kids) kept buying GC games beyond that point.

Cool. It's nice to see that a hypothesis drawn from sale numbers was actually played out in the real-world. :)

moku said:
I thought that the numbers would be previewed by now, but, alas, the holidays, they ruin our fun...

Tomorrow between 8 and 9 a.m. EST is the usual time they're posted.
 
donny2112 said:
Congratulations. You just suggested that Nintendo should throw out its financial plannings from as far back as I can remember.

Throwing things out is what got both the DS and the Wii to where they are now instead of dead in the cold, cold ground. If they choose to aggressively avoid spending any money to woo third-party developers, it will bite them in the ass down the road -- if only in the form of stunting the Wii's growth at some level of profitability less than what a system with actual third-party games could achieve.

Vinnk said:
That is true. THe DS proved itself to be a choice for the hardcore gamer, and it already has that demograpic and the one that moved away for the Gamecube. The Wii has a lot to prove.

This is also why the "devs will have no choice but to develop for Wii" concept is flawed. There are at least two other viable routes for software development -- the 70/30 Square-Enix style DS/PSP split and the Capcom-style "develop cross-platform X360/PS3 titles and recoup in the West" strategy. Without something to sweeten the pot, Japanese developers really could choose to just never actually switch over to Wii as their primary target system, no matter how much time it spends as the best-selling system.
 
Man God said:
DS had a very similar problem when it came to third party stuff. Basically it was FF III announced right before launch and then very little else...until the system exploded. That's why it's having such a big third party rush since mid '07 that will last until god knows when.

Wii still needs to have that one big third party game in Japan to really open eyes. Will it ever get it? Time will tell. I will tell you this though, the Wii already has more western support than the DS ever had, with actual effort being put into some, but nowhere near all games.

In terms of support, perhaps I might agree. But then the DS is the successor to the GBA, whatever gibberish Nintendo might have spouted about third pillars, and so it automatically inherited the GBA support and base.

Furthermore - of course the Wii has more Western support. It's a console. The West don't support handhelds. They never have.
 

donny2112

Member
charlequin said:
If they choose to aggressively avoid spending any money to woo third-party developers, it will bite them in the ass down the road -- if only in the form of stunting the Wii's growth at some level of profitability less than what a system with actual third-party games could achieve.

$250K in marketing for a game that Capcom itself didn't even know how to market? That doesn't seem like money well-spent to me.

Sony didn't aid the marketing for every Tom, Dick, and Harry third-party game that came along, so I don't see why Nintendo should (as I inferred from Stumpokapow). My understanding is that Sony helped on the games that would have big impacts on its own bottom line. Final Fantasy VII, EA games, etc. I see no problem for Nintendo to help games that are already helping themselves. That's a far different situation than being a "loss leader" to help recoup development costs for third-party companies.
 
donny2112 said:
$250K in marketing for a game that Capcom itself didn't even know how to market? That doesn't seem like money well-spent to me.

Well, if someone doesn't pull up the slack, we're either going to see more Z&W style bombs, or we're not going to see more Z&W style bombs simply because those games won't be made.

Neither seems too appealing.
 

donny2112

Member
Pureauthor said:
Well, if someone doesn't pull up the slack, we're either going to see more Z&W style bombs, or we're not going to see more Z&W style bombs simply because those games won't be made.

Neither seems too appealing.

If a game can't be marketed, you re-design/brand the game to make it marketable. If you can't explain to the consumer why they should buy your game, you've failed before you hit the shelf. You don't just throw money at it.
 

Vinnk

Member
I think the Minna No Nintendo Channel is a good start for Nintendo helping third parties get at least a bit of notice. The in store kiosks only show a few trailers and they are almost always for first party games. With the MNN channel smaller games can have their footage seen and get their details announced. Still, if I remember correctly, there is a smaller percentatge of online Wii systems in Japan. But, it's a start. Now if only they would offer demos like the other guys...
 
I don't place the blame for Z&W bombing solely at Nintendo's feet.

First, let's establish where I'm coming from - Z&W is a niche franchise, that is very true. However, a niche game is a niche game precisely because there is a niche to sell these games to in the first place.

Was Z&W ever expected to light up the charts? No, I don't think so. But was Z&W expected to crash like it did? No, I don't think so either. There is a base for people who like adventure games - look at the DS and Hotel Dusk, Phoenix Wright, etc (and for clarity's sake, I'm talking WW here, since Z&W bombed all over the globe). Capcom failed to appeal to that base, either through marketing or demographic issues.

If it's a demographic issue, then marketing can't save the game - the adventure game player might find Z&W intriguing but not worth picking up a Wii for. In which case I suppose the 'fault' lies with Nintendo appealing to the 'wrong' demographic.

If, however, it's a marketing issue, then both sides dropped the ball. The game can be marketed, and I make this claim based on precedent of relatively similar games. The problem is that it wasn't marketed well enough. In fact, regardless of the demographic issue, all reports led me to think that the marketing for Z&W was flat-out not there.
 

Deku

Banned
Zack and Wiki would have barely received a second look as a 'major title' had it been on a platform like the DS or PS2.

It's significance was only enhanced by the dearth of any good total titles on the Wii.
 

ethelred

Member
Deku said:
Zack and Wiki would have barely received a second look as a 'major title' had it been on a platform like the DS or PS2.

It's significance was only enhanced by the dearth of any good total titles on the Wii.

That's really not true. Perhaps it wouldn't have been too lauded on the PS2, either (though I think it still would have been), but it definitely would've gotten quite a few looks even on the DS. Look at all the attention paid to Professor Layton, another game combining puzzle solving and adventure game elements. Treasure Island Z was a high quality game from a talented team within an acclaimed publisher, a new franchise with an appealing aesthetic and a lot of humor. The attention was hardly due strictly to its platform.
 
Haven't been to one of these in a while, and I see people are still squabbling over the same old, same old. Wii has plenty of great games and plenty of hits, does it really matter what company they're coming from?
 

ethelred

Member
Mariah Carey said:
Haven't been to one of these in a while, and I see people are still squabbling over the same old, same old. Wii has plenty of great games and plenty of hits, does it really matter what company they're coming from?

Remarkably useless contribution.
 
If you don't care about whether a hit comes from a third or a first party, then obviously this discussion holds no interest for you, and you are free not to participate, or alternatively to try starting your own thread of discussion.
 

liuelson

Member
charlequin said:
If they choose to aggressively avoid spending any money to woo third-party developers, it will bite them in the ass down the road -- if only in the form of stunting the Wii's growth at some level of profitability less than what a system with actual third-party games could achieve.

This is speculative, but it seems like Nintendo couldn't count on 3rd party support as they developed their market strategy for the Wii. Thus, Nintendo innovated away from what 3rd parties would want (stronger graphics, traditional control scheme) and towards a model that they felt they could survive with. It's only AFTER the Wii's success has eclipsed everyone's expectations (including Nintendo's own) that the question of 3rd parties even enters the discussion. But I'm still not convinced that Nintendo really wants to move in that direction.

Also, I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the hardware market adoption curve. I'm not an expert like JJS or Donny, but it seems like a linear cumulative adoption curve (looking at PS2) implies something weird about the video game hardware market. Either the market segments are different (don't follow a standard bell distribution) or the network effect is negligible (more people owning the system makes the system more valuable). Am I missing something?
 

.dmc

Banned
ethelred said:
That's really not true. Perhaps it wouldn't have been too lauded on the PS2, either (though I think it still would have been), but it definitely would've gotten quite a few looks even on the DS.

On DS it would have gotten a little bit of attention and maybe gone onto sell 100k copies (even Trace Memory did that). But DS has a much larger userbase. On PS2 I don't think anyone would ever had heard of it.
 
Pureauthor said:
Well, if someone doesn't pull up the slack, we're either going to see more Z&W style bombs, or we're not going to see more Z&W style bombs simply because those games won't be made.

Neither seems too appealing.

Neither are appealing but is it Nintendo's job to make sure every game sells? Do we blame Sony for Okami failing? Do we blame Sony for every game on the PSP that failed to sell?

At some point 3rd Parties do have to take the fate of the games they make into their own hands. If Capcom didn't put enough effort forward to market the game to stores, resulting in a small order for the game, who else is to blame for that but Capcom.

There's a lot of lets blame other people for our failures now adays, I'm sorry but I think 3rd parties need to step up and take responsibility when their stuff fails to sell.
 

Deku

Banned
ethelred said:
That's really not true. Perhaps it wouldn't have been too lauded on the PS2, either (though I think it still would have been), but it definitely would've gotten quite a few looks even on the DS. Look at all the attention paid to Professor Layton, another game combining puzzle solving and adventure game elements. Treasure Island Z was a high quality game from a talented team within an acclaimed publisher, a new franchise with an appealing aesthetic and a lot of humor. The attention was hardly due strictly to its platform.

It's a matter of how you frame it I suppose. Hindsight is 20/20 and comparing it to Layton with hindsight of that title's massive success may not be quite genuine either. Prof. Layton was only considered a major title after its success in Japan. That's a very good way of selling and creating awareness in youth markets but it's not an argument. Dragon Quest IX would it be a major game, of course, but even titles like Final Fantasy IVr would have the requisite branding and marketing power Prof. Layton didn't have when it was released.

I'm sure Capcom might have done better if it was on the DS, but that's besides the point. Had Layton bombed, and no one here gave it much of a chance when it was first revealed , we would have moved on as there were bigger titles to track.

To address the more general logical crutch that fairly or unfairly pepper discussions about 3rd party games on Nintendo and Sony platforms being crowded out by strong 1st party sales, Prof. Layton entered a platform dominated by Nintendo, BUT it entered it on its 3rd year which undoubtedly helped its sales. And if we subscribe to this idea that its 'non-game' elements appealed to the non traditional DS users, then it was also attacking a genre absolutely dominated by Nintendo. That impeaches the general thrust of what was being said.

Zack and Wiki was simply a good game with a design that didn't catch on on an immature platform that is largely a one trick pony. I found its design subpar to what Layton had to offer. There's was no catchy look that stands out because its cel-shading style has been so overused in the past generation. The game didn't feel high production and the characters in Z&W weren't all that appealing. That's just my opinion of course, but I can see why, objectively, it simply didn't inspire much sales from the people who should be buying this game.
 

ethelred

Member
Deku said:
It's a matter of how you frame it I suppose. Hindsight is 20/20 and comparing it to Layton with hindsight of that title's massive success may not be quite genuine either. Prof. Layton was only considered a major title after its success in Japan.

Respectfully, that is complete historical revisionism. When Professor Layton was announced, it was considered major. It was the first self-published game from a major developer (having experienced popular and critical success developing titles for Sony and, most importantly, Dragon Quest VIII) and one that the company clearly considered key to its future. It was also considered something of a major coup for the DS given that this particular popular developer had been, prior to that point, a Sony-exclusive company (despite their flirtation with MS, they had only developed games on Sony machines).

Feel free to read the announcement thread, if you like. It certainly wasn't considered a minor announcement here on GAF, and it wasn't considered a minor announcement in the Japanese press where Famitsu and other magazines considered it quite a weighty reveal with heavy coverage of the entire event Level-5 put on for the game.

Certainly the game going on to sell so wildly successfully raised its stock even further, but to suggest it was minor before that isn't accurate at all. It was always a major game (and this is no doubt why Nintendo engaged in a strong marketing push on the game's behalf).

Deku said:
Zack and Wiki was simply a good game with a design that didn't catch on on an immature platform that is largely a one trick pony. [...] There are also issues relating to the platform it was released on, the maturity of the userbase which are far more valid knocks against the Wii than regurgitating the same old 'Nintendo shot first' arguments.

I agree; it almost certainly would've done better on the DS. I'd like to see Capcom take a crack at the franchise on that platform.
 

Vinnk

Member
One problem with withapanese market and indeed all markets is that a quick turnaround of used games makes grassroots marketing hard. To use Z&W as an example, I recommended this game to many of my friends because, well, it's great. But they wanted to take a wait and see approach and waited until one of thier friends had it to try it out. As expected, they loved it. However by that time there were plenty of used copies available, so that is what they bought(if they bought it at all).

Thats one of the reasons why WiiSports stays so high on the charts. You almost never see a used copy. People don't buy it to beat it and return it. They buy it to have when friends come over.

But getting back to the point, if a game dosn't start out really strong it dosn't matter how good the reviews are or how cool it is, there won't be sales. This makes Wii games an even harder sell because many times you can't understand the innovative control scheme until you actually try it for yourself. And by that time the game is available used or the price has collapsed.

I think a demo could have helped this title a lot. Watching the video I was not excited for it. I bought it because of the reviews but had no excitement for it until I actually played. Same is true for a lot of Wii games.
 

Deku

Banned
ethelred said:
Respectfully, that is complete historical revisionism. When Professor Layton was announced, it was considered major. It was the first self-published game from a major developer (having experienced popular and critical success developing titles for Sony and, most importantly, Dragon Quest VIII) and one that the company clearly considered key to its future. It was also considered something of a major coup for the DS given that this particular popular developer had been, prior to that point, a Sony-exclusive company (despite their flirtation with MS, they had only developed games on Sony machines).

Feel free to read the announcement thread, if you like. It certainly wasn't considered a minor announcement here on GAF, and it wasn't considered a minor announcement in the Japanese press where Famitsu and other magazines considered it quite a weighty reveal with heavy coverage of the entire event Level-5 put on for the game.

Certainly the game going on to sell so wildly successfully raised its stock even further, but to suggest it was minor before that isn't accurate at all. It was always a major game (and this is no doubt why Nintendo engaged in a strong marketing push on the game's behalf).

I just browsed through the thread and aside from the usual 'looks nice, will buy' (something Z&W didn't have going for it) 'PSP am cry' chest thumping, there's also also quite a strong undercurrent of cynicism about it's one part Brain Training and one part Adventure game motif.


In anycase, I overstated my point. What I want to say is that though the prospect of Level 5 making a self published DS game was huge, no one expected it to be a major anchor to the DS library. A high quality project that we will want to buy, sure. Z&W is viewed in exactly this light. The scale of the comparison though is not very congruent. Layton is one game is a sea of good prospects, Z&W is not in the same situation. And I resent the 'eggs in a basket' attitude some people take with this game and they go crying when the results aren't good. Do these people have anything else to play? (probably no). A lot of good DS game didn't make a huge splash either. Wishroom/Hotel Dusk come to mind so I don't see Z&W's failure, in light of say, UC's relatively good sales, as a theory of anything other any overactive brains trying to find patterns and reasons.


I agree; it almost certainly would've done better on the DS. I'd like to see Capcom take a crack at the franchise on that platform.

I hope they do too.
 

Vinnk

Member
vanguardian1 said:
IIRC didn't Professor Layton also have some decent marketing?

It had fantastic marketing. The only third-party DS titles I know of to advertise more are Square-Enix games and The Sega Card-based games (like Love and Berry).
 

Diffense

Member
Third parties.

*shrug*

The platform is there, the userbase is there, the rest is up to them.
Let's face it, third parties were not going to support Wii out of the gate.
Nintendo had to sell it, and they have done a remarkable job.
What else is needed?

I think third parties are just having difficulties adjusting to the new realities. PS3 was in everyone's major plans when it was a mere idea, now they have to be asking if it makes sense to shift resources.

Some third parties probably liked Nintendo having a respectable, minority userbase as with N64 and GCN. But it's difficult to ignore something as niche when it constitutes the majority of the marketshare of gamers. Combine that with the flawed perception that third party Nintendo games have to be Nintendo-ey (was not the case on NES or SNES) and you have a recipe for indecision and confusion about the new industry landscape.

What DS and especially Wii have done is the equivalent of a videogame Blitzkreig.
It'll probably take time for the dust to settle and for adjustments to be made.
 

ethelred

Member
Deku said:
In anycase, I overstated my point. What I want to say is that though the prospect of Level 5 making a self published DS game was huge, no one expected it to be a major anchor to the DS library.

Perhaps. I'd still say L5 is one of the strongest third parties on the system, irrespective of sales; they've put a major focus on it and an emphasis on delivering high calibre original content befitting its status as the market leading platform -- which is good for gamers and good for the company, allowing it to grow and do new things. Quite a few of the more established and supposedly smarter third parties could learn from Akihiro Hino.

Deku said:
Layton is one game is a sea of good prospects, Z&W is not in the same situation. And I resent the 'eggs in a basket' attitude some people take with this game and they go crying when the results aren't good. Do these people have anything else to play? (probably no).

Again, perhaps. I have plenty of other games to play myself, and had plenty of other things to play even in the time period when Treasure Island Z came out. But I find its failure disappointing in that I think it's a quality and very creative game and that it's a new franchise in a genre that appeals to me; more importantly, though, it's a data point in a trend that's even more disappointing. And as was noted before, I think a lot of people are justifying and mitigating each data point in that trend line and they're going to ignore it until it reaches through their monitors and smacks them in their self-blinded faces.

Deku said:
A lot of good DS game didn't make a huge splash either. Wishroom/Hotel Dusk come to mind so I don't see Z&W's failure, in light of say, UC's relatively good sales, as a theory of anything other any overactive brains trying to find patterns and reasons.

I'm not sure in what sense Hotel Dusk was comparable to Treasure Island Z. When last we saw Treasure Island Z, it was toiling away at 20,000 in sales -- Hotel Dusk easily broke ten times that amount amount, charting at 206,262. It's performed less than, say, Professor Layton... but by pretty much any standard, it's a huge success, especially given the supposedly niche appeal of the genre.

Diffense said:
Third parties.

*shrug*

The platform is there, the userbase is there, the rest is up to them.
Let's face it, third parties were not going to support Wii out of the gate.
Nintendo had to sell it, and they have done a remarkable job.
What else is needed?

Man, this has been debated back and forth so many times. Round and round we go. I don't feel like thrashing through the talking points again so suffice to say you're wrong, and if you really want that to be substantiated further, feel free to do the legwork of digging up the earlier arguments made by myself, Stumpy, or Charlie -- or, if you're feeling particularly lazy, just look at the post Donny made on the last freaking page.
 

Vinnk

Member
I guess the real question right now is: "What can Nintendo do about it?" or maybe a better question is "Does Nintendo feel the need to do anything about it?"
 
On a different subject, Brawl was delayed for a week to 1/31/2008 in Japan, so this is its competition for that week

Devil May Cry 4
Sega Rally Revo
A Suzumiya Haruhi PS2 game
Tales of Destiny Directors Cut
Disgaea 3

Software numbers for that week will be very very interesting.
 

Deku

Banned
ethelred said:
Perhaps. I'd still say L5 is one of the strongest third parties on the system, irrespective of sales; they've put a major focus on it and an emphasis on delivering high calibre original content befitting its status as the market leading platform -- which is good for gamers and good for the company, allowing it to grow and do new things. Quite a few of the more established and supposedly smarter third parties could learn from Akihiro Hino.
It's hard to guage in hindsight how GAF perceived a game. I think it's fair to say expectations weren't high that it would do very well. People were psyched because it was Level 5 and possibly more RPGs were on the way (or they thought it would be an RPG).


Again, perhaps. I have plenty of other games to play myself, and had plenty of other things to play even in the time period when Treasure Island Z came out. But I find its failure disappointing in that I think it's a quality and very creative game and that it's a new franchise in a genre that appeals to me; more importantly, though, it's a data point in a trend that's even more disappointing. And as was noted before, I think a lot of people are justifying and mitigating each data point in that trend line and they're going to ignore it until it reaches through their monitors and smacks them in their self-blinded faces.
Fair point. BTW, my (no games to play) wasn't aimed at you personally.


I'm not sure in what sense Hotel Dusk was comparable to Treasure Island Z. When last we saw Treasure Island Z, it was toiling away at 20,000 in sales -- Hotel Dusk easily broke ten times that amount amount, charting at 206,262. It's performed less than, say, Professor Layton... but by pretty much any standard, it's a huge success, especially given the supposedly niche appeal of the genre.
You're right. Hotel Dusk also did very well in Europe too. The point was the great games don't always make the splash they should and may not get the attention they deserve. The comparative scale is somewhat less relevant to the point that the world isn't fair and the market is what it is.

In anycase, I want to wrap this up. The fundamental difference I have with the post I initially responded to is that I don't see this title as a bellwether for a particular argument or trend. It's just a poorly positioned release saddled with the fact that some of the content (such as its visual style, title and character designs) did not work in the game's favour.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Golden Darkness said:
On a different subject, Brawl was delayed for a week to 1/31/2008 in Japan, so this is its competition for that week

Devil May Cry 4
Sega Rally Revo
A Suzumiya Haruhi PS2 game
Tales of Destiny Directors Cut
Disgaea 3

Software numbers for that week will be very very interesting.

It has a decent chance of eating all of them. Nom, nom.

They also all have a decent chance of being Wii-Fit/Mario Party DS'd.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Man God said:
DS had a very similar problem when it came to third party stuff. Basically it was FF III announced right before launch and then very little else...until the system exploded. That's why it's having such a big third party rush since mid '07 that will last until god knows when.

Wii still needs to have that one big third party game in Japan to really open eyes. Will it ever get it? Time will tell. I will tell you this though, the Wii already has more western support than the DS ever had, with actual effort being put into some, but nowhere near all games.

Most likely because western devs have never been forced or even needed to support handhelds unlike Japanese devs.
 
Golden Darkness said:
On a different subject, Brawl was delayed for a week to 1/31/2008 in Japan, so this is its competition for that week

Devil May Cry 4
Sega Rally Revo
A Suzumiya Haruhi PS2 game
Tales of Destiny Directors Cut
Disgaea 3

Software numbers for that week will be very very interesting.
I feel terribly sorry for DMC4.
 

The_Joint

Member
Based on some logical conclusions people think the lack of "3rd party support/AAA titles/quality/can't compete with Nintendo" on the Wii will hinder it in some way (i.e., keep it from reaching PS2 levels of dominance). Probably, but maybe, maybe not. But realistically, yeah.

Another line of reasoning that falls in with this is "Nintendo needs to do more to help 3rd parties". And then the argument eventually leads down to Nintendo's bottom line. I'm sure they are doing the math.

After dismissing Nintendo's bottom line and turning to the 3rd parties bottom line the question of "3rd party support/AAA titles/quality/can't compete with Nintendo" comes up again.

Ethelred's auteristic skepticism is sharp enough to prick holes in many arguments and keep people from trampling on his worldview. It's nice having smart people around. :lol
 

Neo C.

Member
Vinnk said:
I guess the real question right now is: "What can Nintendo do about it?" or maybe a better question is "Does Nintendo feel the need to do anything about it?"
In my opinion, not immediately. The demographic problem is a temporary one. I guess Nintendo is just way too successful with their games for casuals this time, therefore several projects got delayed, especially core gamers games. We can assume the delays aren't made solely because of quality improvements.

Nintende still needs to gather the core gamers, on the other hand the world wide demand for Wii is horribly high. Therefore core gamers games are going delayed one after another, not only the well-known ones but especially several unannounced ones.
 
Shin Johnpv said:
Neither are appealing but is it Nintendo's job to make sure every game sells? Do we blame Sony for Okami failing? Do we blame Sony for every game on the PSP that failed to sell?

In order, no, no, and yes. If your system does not have a demonstrated history of successful third-party games, it's your responsibility as the hardware maker to make the decision to develop for it easier by either partially funding select titles or providing marketing support. Once your platform is well-established you can pull back and focus on the specific titles that are most relevant to your platform, but in the beginning (or if you're trailing your competitor) you need to do more.

Sony seems to have pulled support from this pretty quickly on PSP, which has contributed to its relative dearth of software and its increasingl abysmal software sales.

On the other hand, Nintendo seems to have never provided it in the first place for Wii, despite already having both the "Nintendo reputation" and the oddity of developing for the Wii stacked against them. There doesn't seem to be much reason to risk developing a high-budget game for Wii when Nintendo seem visibly disinterested in supporting your efforts.

Deku said:
I think it's fair to say expectations weren't high that it would do very well.

I disagree. Identifying that Layton would successfully hit the DS "non-game" market and/or the well-established DS point-and-click market was not a stretch in any way; at very least I don't think anyone with even a modicum of Sales-Age knowledge expected it to do below, say, 150-300k -- numbers that still would have been extremely successful for L5's first publishing outing.

The fundamental difference I have with the post I initially responded to is that I don't see this title as a bellwether for a particular argument or trend.

The frustration I repeatedly feel in this thread is that the discussion of this trend gets sidetracked into debate about individual titles, despite the number of different data points we have to work with. There are individual excuses for the failure of SCL, NiGHTS, Z&W, Chocobo, WLG, etc. but taken together they present a pretty clear picture of a negative trend -- third party games underperform even low expectations on Wii.
 
Why the hell does Sony release new PSP colors in weeks without major software? I still remember the Red one and now...

2/7 Ghiren no Yabou (LE PSP with this game though)
2/21 Musou Orochi
2/28 PSP SLIM GREEN
3/19 Tales of Rebirth
3/27 Monster Hunter Portable 2 G and Code Geass

(Yes MHP2G has been delayed)

EDIT: Wait, there is only 1 release on 2/28. SCE's MyStylist:
http://www.jp.playstation.com/scej/title/mystylist/

pho_top01.jpg



No comments.
 

jgwhiteus

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Why the hell does Sony release new PSP colors in weeks without major software? I still remember the Red one and now...

2/7 Ghiren no Yabou (LE PSP with this game though)
2/21 Musou Orochi
2/28 PSP SLIM GREEN
3/19 Tales of Rebirth
3/27 Monster Hunter Portable 2 G and Code Geass

(Yes MHP2G has been delayed)

EDIT: Wait, there is only 1 release on 2/28. SCE's MyStylist:

No comments.

Yeah, I think someone mentioned before that the "mint green" color was an attempt to capture more female buyers, and releasing it along with "MyStylist" probably makes sense with that...
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I don't imagine MyStylist doing epic numbers. The new color PSP will obviously sell out the 50k-100k that they ship, but I don't see MyStylist doing all that great. It's just not a system seller.

Nintendo did it right. Roll out the casual big guns (Brain Training, English Training, BT2) first. Then allow an ecosystem of second tier casual titles to develop in order to keep casuals buying. If Nintendo and third parties had started the DS off with Housekeeping Diary and 1000 Awesome Political Quiz Questions, it wouldn't have really captured the casual market.

SCE needs a casual killer app. While I'm highly skeptical of Home as an XBL-style online gaming interface (to me it smacks of a lot of bullshit just to do what is currently done quite well with a clean, quick, and minimal interface), I think as a second life competitor it could be great. We know Sony is interested in convergence, and I sincerely hope they expand the Home concept to PSP. It could sell millions.

Even better if they partner with a major telco to expand Wifi access in critical urban areas. We've seen Google tackle municipal Wifi, and we're seeing Apple work to make use of the cellular band. We've also seen NTT work in conjunction with Nintendo. I think Sony could really build a brand if they emphasized the PSP's Wifi ability with Home or something like it an aggressive tech support / municipal wifi program. Of course, the actual cost/benefit analysis here is obviously beyond anyone's purview, but I don't think it's completely outlandish to expect that if Home PSP was a BT-level success or brand-builder that this would be a good investment.
 
Does anyone know how many % of the japanese market Media Create is covering and Famitsu?


I only know that Famitsu gets data from 34.200 stores.
 

Diffense

Member
Man, this has been debated back and forth so many times. Round and round we go. I don't feel like thrashing through the talking points again so suffice to say you're wrong, and if you really want that to be substantiated further, feel free to do the legwork of digging up the earlier arguments made by myself, Stumpy, or Charlie -- or, if you're feeling particularly lazy, just look at the post Donny made on the last freaking page.

Lol...I need to be educated?
I need a degree in spin to state my opinion?

The third party developers have to come on board if they want.
The ball is in their court.

I think some hard lessons are going to be learned before this generation is out.
 

Spiegel

Member
Pureauthor said:
Was Z&W ever expected to light up the charts? No, I don't think so. But was Z&W expected to crash like it did? No, I don't think so either. There is a base for people who like adventure games - look at the DS and Hotel Dusk, Phoenix Wright, etc (and for clarity's sake, I'm talking WW here, since Z&W bombed all over the globe). Capcom failed to appeal to that base, either through marketing or demographic issues.

Zack & Wiki is not out in Europe yet

01/18
Balls of Fury
Geometry Wars: Galaxies
Ghost Squad
NiGHTS: Journey of Dreams
Wii Chess
Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros Treasure
 
Diffense said:
I need a degree in spin to state my opinion?

Well, having facts (or more to work with than a specific system bias) would probably help. Ethelred, donny, Stumpokapow and I have all laid out the basics of why at the moment it's not actually proving worthwhile for third parties to invest in the Wii; similarly, the ways in which one can largely eschew the Wii for DS/PSP development (a la Square-Enix) or Western-focused X360/PS3 development (a la Capcom) are well established.

There's very little evidence at all at the moment to suggest that developers will learn "hard lessons" for undersupporting the Wii; at best, Nintendo will stunt the Wii's sales potential by insufficiently courting third parties and they'll learn a "hard lesson," while at worst Nintendo will support the Wii well enough that it's profitable for them, and the ones learning a "hard lesson" will be the Wii purchasers who thought "market leader" would actually trasnlate to third-party games.
 
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