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Media Create Sales 12/31 - 1/6 2008
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
test_account
XP-39C²
Expencive games on that list. Thousands of dollars pr. game 
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Pretend the dollars are yen.test_account said:Expencive games on that list. Thousands of dollars pr. game
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Huh. It's ugly but readable to me. Maybe it's time to import into a spreadsheet and reformat.ethelred said:
test_account
XP-39C²
bmf said:
I know hehe, but its still alittle funny to mix up dollar and yen since it makes a huge difference
Knastluder
Member
test_account said:I know hehe, but its still alittle funny to mix up dollar and yen since it makes a huge difference
Believe me your beloved US Dollar will go down the toilet ,soon.In fact it's already dying.
...btw do I get a tag when I'm right ????
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8939324&postcount=466jesusraz said:
Around 100k it seems, doesn't look like it'll need a second shipment.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
So I've added a nifty new thing to my game group pages; an image of comparative sales. Right now it displays the cumulative sales over one year, but there are so many other decent ways it could be done it might be good to link to the various possibilities:
*Cumulative sales from day 1 through whenever the longest-charting went.
*Cumulative sales by date, rather than days since release.
*Sales over the first few weeks for easier launch comparisons.
*Weekly instead of cumulative versions of any of the above.
Some of these turn out pretty decent and easy to read. Unsurprisingly, though, large groups create a bit of a mess.
*Cumulative sales from day 1 through whenever the longest-charting went.
*Cumulative sales by date, rather than days since release.
*Sales over the first few weeks for easier launch comparisons.
*Weekly instead of cumulative versions of any of the above.
Some of these turn out pretty decent and easy to read. Unsurprisingly, though, large groups create a bit of a mess.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Maybe, but I wouldn't be sure about that. Previously I've compared Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon's performance to Chocobo Tales, noting that CMD had a higher first week than Land. It looks like it's slowed down since, but if it continues similarly it could have a bit more meat on its bones. Here's Chocobo Tales's LTD history as we know it so far.Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Famitsu Week of 2006-12-11 29,065
Famitsu Week of 2006-12-25 78,465
Famitsu Week of 2007-01-08 113,774
Famitsu Week of 2007-06-25 139,944
test_account
XP-39C²
Knastluder said:
For me its a good thing that the dollar is low. Now i can buy things cheaper from USA and Play-Asia etc. due to the lower dollar convertion rate
jesusraz
Member
On the contrary, surely if it sold ~73,000 in December alone and the first stock was only about 90,000-95,000 units, then given the recent high sales and evidence of it lingering around the No.50 mark, it could crawl its way back up if more stock is forthcoming. Seems odd how it had such a decent first week then nose-dived, though...Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
You are mixing things here, the data for December and first day is Famitsu, but the one who had it at nº50 last thread is MC. From the monthly Famitsu top we know it sold 28,954 between the 12/17-12/23 and 12/24-12/30 weeks after its 43,756 debut, but we don't know the breakdown of those weeks. Chocobo DS came back to top30 in the 1/8-1/14 week last year (surge of popularity or overshipment?) so if Chocobo Wii is going through the same we should see it next Wednesday in the Famitsu chart for 1/7-1/13.jesusraz said:
To see it like a trend:
Chocobo DS 1st day - ~10000-15000
Chocobo DS 1st week - 29065
Chocobo DS 2nd and 3rd week - 49400
Chocobo DS 4th and 5th week - 35309
Chocobo Wii 1st day - ~30000
Chocobo Wii 1st week - 43756
Chocobo Wii 2nd and 3rd week - 28954
DS one expanded on the weekend a lot, unlike the Wii one. It sold more in the next two weeks than in the first one by a good little, Wii one sold less in the next two weeks than in its first one by a good little. Unless it charts in the Famitsu Top30 for this week, we won't even have its 4th and 5th total though, so we would have to wait until 2008 Top500 or something like that.
jesusraz
Member
True, it's a bad habit that I mix MC and Fam data at timesKurosaki Ichigo said:
Thanks for listing the data clearly. That 72,710 Famitsu figure is for December alone, right? So that means it doesn't include the data for the biggest week, which was up to 6th January, no? Potentially it could have done another 10,000+ that week easily, given its numbers for 2nd and 3rd week, which would bring it very close to its first stock limit.Anyway, as you say, we'll not know for sure unless it makes the Fam Top 30, data is leaked, S-E reveals shipped numbers or the full chart comes out later this year...hmm :/
Moor-Angol
Banned
jesusraz said:True, it's a bad habit that I mix MC and Fam data at times
Yes, you are right, we don't have official Famitsu number for first week in January yet.
I think Chocobo Wii can overpass 100k, seems like he has some decent legs as DS game had last year.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
In most cases I'd imagine games would be shaped more like uhh... r or something. However, games released near enough the holidays to get a chartable bump (like 5 of the 7 listed Mario Party titles there) will get that S look. Kirby Squeak Squad and Super Mario Galaxy also share this.liuelson said:
BishopLamont
Banned
I'm think it was a PS2 game. I vaguely remember you asking whether it was for Wii or PS2.Lobster said:
JoshuaJSlone said:
I'll try to illustrate what the different adoption curves imply about the nature of the market. Traditionally, technology markets are assumed to have a standard bell-shaped distribution of Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards (not my terminology - I'm using terms from the Office of Technology Assessment for the US Congress). If so, then the cumulative adoption should follow an s-shaped saturation curve:
However, hardware adoption appears to be almost linear, which implies an almost even distribution of the different market segments:
If video game software follows an "r-shaped" saturation curve, then the market may follow a Poisson distribution:
The shape of the market is really important for strategic reasons - who you target, how you target. It almost seems like Sony bet on a traditional (bell-shaped) distribution, Microsoft bet on a poisson distribution, and Nintendo bet on an even / constant distribution (or perhaps even something different).
Something interesting.
I was on the "Minna no Nintendo" channel on my Japanese Wii today and I saw something unexpected. You see, on the front page they have promo videos. These are for brand new titles that have just been released or are being released soon (Like Smash Bros.) But strangely enough the trailer for Twilight Princess (2:06 version) was up there as well. It's the only title older than WiiFit/Dragon Quest IV. I am just wondering why they are featuring a launch title in with their brand new lineup.
I wonder if Nintendo is trying to give Zelda a second push. It seems weird this late in the game but maybe they are trying to sell the game to all the brand new Wii owners. Or (more likely) I am just reading too much into this.
Still, there must be some reason someone at Nintendo decided to feature the game.
I was on the "Minna no Nintendo" channel on my Japanese Wii today and I saw something unexpected. You see, on the front page they have promo videos. These are for brand new titles that have just been released or are being released soon (Like Smash Bros.) But strangely enough the trailer for Twilight Princess (2:06 version) was up there as well. It's the only title older than WiiFit/Dragon Quest IV. I am just wondering why they are featuring a launch title in with their brand new lineup.
I wonder if Nintendo is trying to give Zelda a second push. It seems weird this late in the game but maybe they are trying to sell the game to all the brand new Wii owners. Or (more likely) I am just reading too much into this.
Still, there must be some reason someone at Nintendo decided to feature the game.
Vinnk said:
Not having the channel myself, how would you describe the breadth of titles featured? Is TP the only adventure title? Maybe Nintendo is trying to showcase the variety of their library and not just upcoming / recent releases. Maybe Nintendo thinks some new Wii owners are mild Zelda fans who didn't know / forgot about TP.
Just checked that, Vinnk, and it is indeed now added on Everyone's Nintendo (on page 5, though... hardly shoved down the throat).
I noticed it's accompanied on page 5 with four other RPGs, so I guess that's why. They put DQ, Tales of Innocense, FF4 and Zelda on the page so that people who just click play and watch all the vids in sequence get 'reminded' to buy Zelda
Minna no Nintendo is many shades of awesome.
I noticed it's accompanied on page 5 with four other RPGs, so I guess that's why. They put DQ, Tales of Innocense, FF4 and Zelda on the page so that people who just click play and watch all the vids in sequence get 'reminded' to buy Zelda
Minna no Nintendo is many shades of awesome.
Cosmonaut X
Member
swerve said:
It is indeed. Hopefully those of us outside Japan will soon be able to experience its many shades first-hand sometime soon :-(
Late to the third-party/core game discussion, but oh, well.
Third-party traditional games aren't selling well on the Wii. More importantly traditional core games aren't selling well on the Wii for the most part. "Super Mario Galaxy!" Super Mario Galaxy was well on its way to sub-Sunshine levels, and it was only a supreme marketing effort by Nintendo that refused to let this game die that brought it back. Wii users were getting it confused with Mario Party, for goodness's sake. A renewed advertising campaign that apparently was comparing it directly to the 5 million selling New Super Mario Bros. brought this game back to respectability. I do not believe it was the general Wii user suddenly "smartening up."
Why are Core games heavily underperforming on Wii? Is it the games' fault?
Mostly not, in my opinion. The quality of the core games on the Wii in Japan is obviously a relative determination, but I don't consider it drastically less than the perceived quality of first-year games on other systems.
Then why the lower sales for core games on the Wii in Japan?
I've made the case before, but very few seem to notice.
Core users in Japan seem to have left the GameCube in 2004 and, thus, haven't been a large portion of the Wii buyers going into fall 2007.
GameCube sales from launch
GameCube sales from Fall 2003 on
Total software for the GameCube in the Famitsu Top 30s for 2002-2006.
2002: 4.2 million
2003: 5.6 million
2004: 3.2 million
2005: 2.0 million
2006: 0.4 million
By the time the Wii launched in 2006, there wasn't a substantial core of gamers left on the GameCube.
In the U.S., this is much less of an issue. For all the crap thrown at the GameCube by posters on message boards, it sold pretty well in the U.S. and had a lot of good-selling titles even late into the system's life. As such, I think a much larger percentage of the "core" gamers from the GameCube were right there for the launch of the Wii in the U.S. If Twilight Princess sales alone didn't make this patently obvious, consider this: While my data for the U.S. is not complete, I have the GameCube peaking for software in 2004, dropping 15% in 2005, and having almost no change (< 2% drop) for 2006. In other words, the core gamer was actively buying software for the GameCube right upto the bitter end until the launch of the Wii in the U.S.
What can be done?
Nintendo needs to actively try to bring back the core gamer to its console. They've started this with the renewed Galaxy advertising in Fall 2007, and I'm hopeful that Brawl will bring almost all of the rest back from the GameCube's base. Monster Hunter 3, while not a driver on its own, will hopefully be a good step to reach out to the PS2 core gamer, as well.
In Summary
I feel the major reason for disappointing third-party/core sales (outside of more non-traditional games like Dragon Quest Swords) is the lack of a strong "core" gamer audience on the Wii. As I mentioned, though, I'm hopeful this is already changing and will change even more with Brawl's release.
Thanks for the entry. I usually try to keep personal information off the web. However, there's no real personally identifiable information in there, so it's good. That probably also explains why my site hits jumped a couple of days ago. :lol
Considering how quickly used copies typically show up for games (sometimes the day of release), that is amazing. Also helps to explain the first game's extremely long legs.
Actually, it has.
GCN Super Mario Strikers 192K (20061231)
WII Mario Strikers: Charged 105K (20071125)
Thanks!
I figure they could be from a Famitsu PS3 magazine list. The games we do have numbers for match, and the others are reasonable based on the past tracking for the games and Famitsu's tendency to stop tracking games below a certain level (e.g. Enchanted Arms gained 3K total in the last 9 months of the year.) They also do not match ioi's site. I'm going to put them in, but the Top 500 coming out in August would be a better judge.
WII Ghost Squad 42317 (20071125)
Third-party traditional games aren't selling well on the Wii. More importantly traditional core games aren't selling well on the Wii for the most part. "Super Mario Galaxy!" Super Mario Galaxy was well on its way to sub-Sunshine levels, and it was only a supreme marketing effort by Nintendo that refused to let this game die that brought it back. Wii users were getting it confused with Mario Party, for goodness's sake. A renewed advertising campaign that apparently was comparing it directly to the 5 million selling New Super Mario Bros. brought this game back to respectability. I do not believe it was the general Wii user suddenly "smartening up."
Why are Core games heavily underperforming on Wii? Is it the games' fault?
Mostly not, in my opinion. The quality of the core games on the Wii in Japan is obviously a relative determination, but I don't consider it drastically less than the perceived quality of first-year games on other systems.
Then why the lower sales for core games on the Wii in Japan?
I've made the case before, but very few seem to notice.
Core users in Japan seem to have left the GameCube in 2004 and, thus, haven't been a large portion of the Wii buyers going into fall 2007.
GameCube sales from launch
GameCube sales from Fall 2003 on
Total software for the GameCube in the Famitsu Top 30s for 2002-2006.
2002: 4.2 million
2003: 5.6 million
2004: 3.2 million
2005: 2.0 million
2006: 0.4 million
By the time the Wii launched in 2006, there wasn't a substantial core of gamers left on the GameCube.
In the U.S., this is much less of an issue. For all the crap thrown at the GameCube by posters on message boards, it sold pretty well in the U.S. and had a lot of good-selling titles even late into the system's life. As such, I think a much larger percentage of the "core" gamers from the GameCube were right there for the launch of the Wii in the U.S. If Twilight Princess sales alone didn't make this patently obvious, consider this: While my data for the U.S. is not complete, I have the GameCube peaking for software in 2004, dropping 15% in 2005, and having almost no change (< 2% drop) for 2006. In other words, the core gamer was actively buying software for the GameCube right up
What can be done?
Nintendo needs to actively try to bring back the core gamer to its console. They've started this with the renewed Galaxy advertising in Fall 2007, and I'm hopeful that Brawl will bring almost all of the rest back from the GameCube's base. Monster Hunter 3, while not a driver on its own, will hopefully be a good step to reach out to the PS2 core gamer, as well.
In Summary
I feel the major reason for disappointing third-party/core sales (outside of more non-traditional games like Dragon Quest Swords) is the lack of a strong "core" gamer audience on the Wii. As I mentioned, though, I'm hopeful this is already changing and will change even more with Brawl's release.
JoshuaJSlone said:
Thanks for the entry.
I usually try to keep personal information off the web. However, there's no real personally identifiable information in there, so it's good. That probably also explains why my site hits jumped a couple of days ago. :lolVinnk said:
Considering how quickly used copies typically show up for games (sometimes the day of release), that is amazing. Also helps to explain the first game's extremely long legs.
Lobster said:
Actually, it has.
GCN Super Mario Strikers 192K (20061231)
WII Mario Strikers: Charged 105K (20071125)
test_account said:
Thanks!
ethelred said:
I figure they could be from a Famitsu PS3 magazine list. The games we do have numbers for match, and the others are reasonable based on the past tracking for the games and Famitsu's tendency to stop tracking games below a certain level (e.g. Enchanted Arms gained 3K total in the last 9 months of the year.) They also do not match ioi's site. I'm going to put them in, but the Top 500 coming out in August would be a better judge.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
WII Ghost Squad 42317 (20071125)
I've added in the monthly Top 50s to my database.
Donny, solid argument on the performance of traditional games and how audience denographics can shape that... though, I'd like to note that I think this is basically the same argument Charlie and I have been making for a while now. The problem isn't derived from a large scale deficit in the quality of the titles, it's a problem of userbase. And this is something Nintendo is going to really need to push to address; it can't be fixed by the ad hoc efforts of a single smaller publisher on a per game basis (like, say, Capcom with Treasure Island Z or Sega with NiGHTS).
It'll be interesting to see what attempts the company makes to address this in the future, but I continue to believe that a cornerstone of this needs to be third party assistance (in development and marketing) and reassuring core gamers that the console has a future by presenting and pushing a well-rounded, compelling lineup of coming games.
It'll be interesting to see what attempts the company makes to address this in the future, but I continue to believe that a cornerstone of this needs to be third party assistance (in development and marketing) and reassuring core gamers that the console has a future by presenting and pushing a well-rounded, compelling lineup of coming games.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
donny2112 said:
I'm not sure if the discussion you're referring to is the shitstorm I had participated in, although that might have been last weeks, but I figure I've got one thing to add to your analysis here:
I think this analysis is definitely as valid as any other normative analysis. As I made the case before, I don't personally engage in anything other than descriptive analysis because I don't know half as much about Japanese culture as I should to be able to read into things on any "ought" level.
I do think there's a lynchpin question that needs to be answered to satisfy your motivation here, and that's which other consoles Wii owners have in their houses. I think your thoughts on US Gamecube owners are a little overreaching... a far more simple explanation is that many or most US console owners own multiple consoles, and the vast majority of GameCube owners owned a PS2 at the same time. They still bought GameCube games when they came out, but they were more than willing to buy PS2 software in the mean time.
If this is the case in Japan, then that's a pretty big hole in your logic. If, on the other hand, we might actually conceive of a customer as platform-specific or at least more platform-specific than in the US, then you're almost certainly right that Wii owners have not for the most part been traditional gamers.
I think the only thing missing here is what ethelred is saying. Nintendo needs to put marketing and development muscle into third parties. Zack and Wiki would likely never have done well, but certainly Nintendo pitching $250,000 for marketing could have made sales respectable. It works for everyone; Nintendo gets Wii purchasers it might not have and future Capcom support, Capcom gets to recoup its budget for the game. I think even as a "loss leader" of sorts, this is a good investment. Also, unlike MS, Nintendo is cash rich and more than able to burn off some cash for developer goodwill, so if the gamble does not immediately pay off it's a much less pressing problem.
I also conjectured in the previous argument that when the full Top 500 is available we'll be able to track off-chart growth. If it's promising, I think Wii games have the potential to move from the "awful" sales they're at now to the "mediocre" sales that we see with most consoles first year. I still think that even incredible off-chart boosts will still result in a Wii (third-party) software situation that is less favorable than the PS2, but it could mitigate the awfulness we're seeing right now. On the other hand, I would not be surprised at all to see poor off-chart growth.
Do we have a publication date for the 2007 Top 500 yet, or are we just relying on Geimin or another Japanese source? Actually, are there even any GAFfers in Japan who are willing to buy the "big book"?
Xisiqomelir
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
Actually, a Lapsed post inspired me to join GAF. Let me see if I can find it.
This one: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5143116&postcount=308
Speaking of which, has anyone seen jimbo ever since Nintendo went to #1 WW?
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I think its this one...well, this is the 2007 one, as in having 2006 top500.Stumpokapow said:
http://www.f-ism.net/fgh/2007.html
30k yen (hey, thats cheaper than a PS3) - published 17th May 2007
Looking at the older ones (2005 - 13th May and 2006 - 15th May) looks like we have a tentative release at the middle of May.
(If someone bought the 2005 one, it'd be great since we don't have 2004 Top500, do we?
)Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
I knew there'd be something like that. I meant the 2008 one, then. The one with the 2007 data :lol 30k yen is pretty expensive, up 2k yen from the previous years.
(If someone bought the 2005 one, it'd be great since we don't have 2004 Top500, do we?
Nope, inexplicably we do not have 2004 Top 500 yet. But the 2004 Top 500 is not in the 2005 book. Top 100 only.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Wait, so this thing it says it has from page 354: 2004年ゲームソフト売上年間TOP500 plus the Top300 for earlier years is without numbers? What a scam if trueStumpokapow said:
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Xisiqomelir said:
Nope.
Also, funny how pretty much everything Lapsed said has or is coming to fruition.
test_account
XP-39C²
jarrod said:
Ye, maybe thats a factor too. I guess that PSP will in general be people's 2nd choice. DS seems to be the console that they majority wants. PSP sales have risen quite a bit lately though, so its not easy to say how people in general thinks, but still.. i think most people want a DS instead due to various reasons as its games, popularity (i guess its more known than the PSP) and something new (thouch screen)
Thanks for the game release list by the way
I asked for a list like that a while ago and i no one had one, atleast i didnt see it if it was posted.ethelred said:
That thought has crossed my mind when thinking about this.
Stumpokapow said:
Why do they have to have another one?
Stumpokapow said:
Multiple console ownership isn't as widespread as you are implying. This is especially the case as you move further away from people who post on video game message boards.
Stumpokapow said:
I'm saying that Nintendo lost a large majority of its core gamers in the transition from GameCube to Wii in Japan. I don't think that's exactly what you're saying there.
Stumpokapow said:
Congratulations. You just suggested that Nintendo should throw out its financial plannings from as far back as I can remember. "Loss leader"? A cold day in Yamauchi's living room.
Stumpokapow said:
I'm finding the monthly Top 50s to be a good source for that.
Stumpokapow said:
Stop comparing any current video game system to the PS2 for third-party sales. They will all fail miserably. Even the DS, which is pacing well above the PS2 in total software in Japan, will be hard-pressed to match the third-party sales performance of the PS2.
PS2 3rd-party sales through 3 years: ~46 million
NDS 3rd-party sales through 3 years: ~26 million
Usual caveat about having more complete DS data than PS2 data.
Stumpokapow said:
GEIMIN has put it up in August the last two years.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
donny2112 said:
It would be an explanation of where the Gamecube owners in exodus WENT. The presumption on my part is that someone who buys a console is not likely to randomly stop video gaming just because that console does not work out.
Alternatively, substitute instead of multi-console ownership the situation where the person or family buys the console, trades it in, buys it again... rinse and repeat. This is a fairly common situation anecdotally and I hear even moreso in Japan based on evidence of people trading in their Wiis after DQS and people trading in their 360s that were bought just to buy Blue Dragon.
What I'm saying is that it strikes me that the core gamers from GameCube must be somewhere else. Whether that's another home console, another last-gen console, handhelds, mobile, flash games, whatever... it strikes me odd that those core gamers would just disappear from the market entirely just because the Cube bottomed out.
I don't think spending a few tens of millions of dollars of a multi-billion dollar profit is really considered to be "throwing out financial plannings". Besides, Yamauchi would not have been the kind of guy who invested in Retro or N-Space or Brownie Brown. I mean, I'm sure he was aware of this stuff going through during his last few years at Nintendo, but certainly Iwata has somewhat expanded.
Hell, even stuff like assisting the DS with this movie playtimes or road directions or Seattle Mariners shit is un-Yamauchi like and an example of what 'm talking about. Nintendo can strengthen its brand by helping other entities, whether non-game companies, Nintendo non-game investments (like the Mariners), or third parties.
There's only so far the "rainy day fund" goes before some of the money is eventually used for growth. I think all of what Nintendo has done so far in terms of the last few years has been a great idea (especially the recent stuff like the NTT callcenter they set up), I just think they could do MORE as well, and the best way to do that would be to help others help Nintendo.
I think virtually everyone who has even a rough outline for how Nintendo ought to continue expansion and strengthen their grasp on the Japanese market implies at least some level of third-party investment, whether it's more deals like with SEGA and Hudson for the development of first party software, funding hybrid studios like Brownie Brown, helping strictly third party games, funding advertising budgets, paying for exclusivity, or any combination of the above.
That's not my argument at all. My argument is this: third-party first-year Wii sales have been poor, even for the standards of their quality, investment level, marketing budget, etc. Titles topping out at 10,000 units is unheard of on pretty much any platform except the Xbox.
I mention the PS2 because its first year third-party software sales were pretty mediocre. As a point of comparison, if Wii titles were doing 35-70k like what I mentioned earlier in this thread or the last one I would not consider that to be bad like some of the nutcases around here. I do consider to 10k-25k to be pretty much awful, even for the calibre of titles we've seing on the Wii. Like Pureauthor summarized my argument back when I was making it, we're seeing B/C-grade titles get D/F-grade sales, which is not acceptable. The point of even mentioning the first-year PS2 third party sales is not to compare the Wii to the PS2, but to establish a benchmark of the neighborhood I would hope B/C-grade titles achieve. Dewy, as an example, should never have happened.
I don't think, based on the DS or even the non-market leading systems, that 35-50k is a lofty wish for a B/C level title. Hell, that's not likely profitable for most of those titles even based on their obviously tiny budgets. I'm totally happy with the sales of, for instance, Ghost Squad.
Napkin math, based on their profile I'm happy with No More Heroes, Forever Blue/Endless Ocean, every first party title except Strikers, Ghost Squad, Elebits, both DBZ games, Ennichi no Tatsujin, DQS, and some others. I'm unhappy with MLB Power Pros, Zack and Wiki, Sonic, Kororinpa, Victorious Boxers, Monkey Ball, Gundam Scad Hammers, Wii Love Golf, Dewy. I'm neutral on Cooking Mama, Red Steel, Rayman, Chocobo, Strikers. I'm not really interested in the "why" except insofar as fantasy-land.
So, without reference to the PS2 since we're considering this to be off limits, what would you expect some of these titles to do? Not the "why", just the "what". I use the PS2 year one as a reference point because the data is reasonably complete. 35k-50k seems reasonable to me, obviously varying wildly depending on the title. Selling through the first shipment in a decent amount of time seems reasonable to me unless the publisher clearly had Namco-itis. I think both of those benchmarks can be considered meaningful minimums to any definition of "success" while still recognizing the impossibility of a LanceStern-esque concreteness of concept.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I'm still just a fan of the "holiday bump" theory, rather than attributing it to something else. Many times over the last couple months I've compared SMG to other late October/early November Nintendo games, particularly 2006's Kirby Squeak Squad. SMG had a much bigger first week, but past that they've behaved very similarly.donny2112 said:
There may be some exception, but most of the stuff there is straight from GAF, or other publicly available web source. More than any GAFfer, the biggest information-sharing accident I got in was when an entry about a teacher friend of mine linked to his LJ, and his students found the link on my site through Google. Oops!donny2112 said:Thanks for the entry.
donny2112, that is really interesting. Since I hang out with gamers who own all the main consoles I forget that there was indeed a large exodus from GC in 2004. Only the hardest of the hardcore (and the kids) kept buying GC games beyond that point. Even back in 2003, you could get a used gamecube for almost nothing since they were so plentiful. I doubt those people selling the Gamcube were giving up on games, they probably just switched to Sony.
Right now DS and Wii are VERY popular with elementary and Jr. Jigh school students. I am very interested to see what the gaming scene will be like in a few years when those kids grow up and want more grown up games. Will they stay with Nintendo (Wii 2? DS+?) Or will they jump ship?
If Nintendo can retain these kids, who will be the hardcore gamers of tomorrow, they are all set. Or will Nintedno create the stigma that it:s only for Kids and "Old People".
Right now DS and Wii are VERY popular with elementary and Jr. Jigh school students. I am very interested to see what the gaming scene will be like in a few years when those kids grow up and want more grown up games. Will they stay with Nintendo (Wii 2? DS+?) Or will they jump ship?
If Nintendo can retain these kids, who will be the hardcore gamers of tomorrow, they are all set. Or will Nintedno create the stigma that it:s only for Kids and "Old People".
Segata Sanshiro
Member
He was banned for coming into threads, posting the same old block of text paraphrased differently, copping an "I'm right and you're wrong" attitude, and refusing to debate any of his points. If it happened once in a while, he'd still be with us, but virtually every one of his posts followed that pattern.Xavien said:
He pulled an attitude that because he read/wrote/sold Blue Ocean or whatever, that he was some amazing prophet that couldn't be wrong, when really you didn't have to read a goofy marketing book for stupid executives to come to the same conclusions the Blue Ocean book did along a nearly identical path.
HOLY SHIT YOU MEAN TRYING TO CREATE A NEW UNCONTESTED MARKET IS BETTER THAN DIVING INTO A HOTLY CONTESTED MARKET FULL OF COMPETITION THAT YOU DON'T HAVE THE RESOURCES TO COMPETE WITH IS A GOOD IDEA??
ZANG! SOMEONE BETTER TELL EVERY NEW SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS EVER THIS IDEA.