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[tebiro boy]

Wouldn't 1.5M in Japan actually be catastrophic for FFXIII anyway? I mean, I really don't know.

It would be a significant drop, but it would be continuing the trend of lower sales, and by no means a disaster. FFXII sold a little over 2m, IIRC. FF relies increasingly on US/European sales as Japanese figures decline.

Also bear in mind Square charges a premium price (8000 yen?) for FF in Japan.

Does anyone know of the last released figures for FFXII in US/Europe? I remember FFX did pretty well, taking worldwide sales past 6 million or something.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

:lol I can't believe people are spewing this crap and believing it as fact.

You'd have to be an idiot to spend hundreds on a system for one game and then SELL IT BACK.

You're better off just renting a system and the game.

Uh, that's what happened with blue dragon. You really need a reality check man. Loving 360 is great and all but...

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

It would be a significant drop, but it would be continuing the trend of lower sales, and by no means a disaster. FFXII sold a little over 2m, IIRC. FF relies increasingly on US/European sales as Japanese figures decline.

Also bear in mind Square charges a premium price (8000 yen?) for FF in Japan.

Does anyone know of the last released figures for FFXII in US/Europe? I remember FFX did pretty well, taking worldwide sales past 6 million or something.

1.5 million would be a disaster for a game with an exponentially larger budget.

FFXII is the worst selling of the modern (post-PSX) Final Fantasys, but trends also show us that FFVII and FFX were the best selling games on their respective platforms (because they came out first), while IX and XII (which came out last) were the victims of declining interest in the platform.

If the first game on a new platform sells only 1.5 million, the series would be well on its way out in terms of prominence.

 

[..pakbeka..]

:lol I can't believe people are spewing this crap and believing it as fact.

You'd have to be an idiot to spend hundreds on a system for one game and then SELL IT BACK.

You're better off just renting a system and the game.

AFAIK you can't rent games in japan

 

[tebiro boy]

FFXII is the worst selling of the modern (post-PSX) Final Fantasys, but trends also show us that FFVII and FFX were the best selling games on their respective platforms (because they came out first), while IX and XII (which came out last) were the victims of declining interest in the platform.

Actually, in Japan FFVIII sold more than FFVII...

Do you think Square is stupid enough not to take into consideration the decline in FF sales when it sets its budgets? FFX sold about a million less than the peaks of FFVII and FFVIII, despite clearly having a larger budget. Yet Square continues to put out high budget FFs.

If the game is still profitable enough, then regardless of any general decline, it will be made. It's as simple as that.

 

[Terrell]

Actually, in Japan FFVIII sold more than FFVII...

Do you think Square is stupid enough not to take into consideration the decline in FF sales when it sets its budgets? FFX sold about a million less than the peaks of FFVII and FFVIII, despite clearly having a larger budget. Yet Square continues to put out high budget FFs.

If the game is still profitable enough, then regardless of any general decline, it will be made. It's as simple as that.

I think Square Enix has to take the average for producing on PS3 into consideration, but it doesn't seem as though they are. Considering that FFXII had, what, a $10 million+ budget, and FFXIII looks infinitely more complex to produce. Plus, I can't remember where I read it, but the budget estimate for XIII was supposedly above $25 million, so yeah... no good news to be had there.

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

I think Square Enix has to take the average for producing on PS3 into consideration, but it doesn't seem as though they are. Considering that FFXII had, what, a $10 million+ budget, and FFXIII looks infinitely more complex to produce. Plus, I can't remember where I read it, but the budget estimate for XIII was supposedly above $25 million, so yeah... no good news to be had there.

Wow, so FFXIII would basically have to double XII's worldwide sales to make the same revenue?

 

[Aeris130]

Edit- I'm an idiot.

 

[Terrell]

Wow, so FFXIII would basically have to double XII's worldwide sales to make the same revenue?

Doubt it... they'll just charge more for the game to TRY and even it out. Special Editions ahoy!

 

[lupin23rd]

Wow, so FFXIII would basically have to double XII's worldwide sales to make the same revenue?

No because more than 3 million people would already have bought the FF7 Remake, so the audience will be there

m

 

[Eteric Rice]

No because more than 3 million people would already have bought the FF7 Remake, so the audience will be there

m

There is no FFVII remake. -_-

 

[GaimeGuy]

Wow, so FFXIII would basically have to double XII's worldwide sales to make the same revenue?

:lol

You don't even know what revenue is, do you?

 

[milanbaros]

Wow, so FFXIII would basically have to double XII's worldwide sales to make the same revenue?

Aren't PS3 games more expensive than PS2 games. So no it wouldn't, it would be possible for it to sell less and generate more revenue.

 

[Haunted]

m

wtf is this shit?

 

[MasterMFauli]

Some friends of mine asked me, why there arent any PS3-games at all released in Japan.
Well, icouldnt answer them.
Or rather, my answer was "developers dont want to sacrifice their games just to push PS3´s hardware numbers".
So, does anyone have a better answer?
It´s hard to believe that simply noone planned to release a game in all those weeks, especially Sony themselves.

 

[test_account]

Some friends of mine asked me, why there arent any PS3-games at all released in Japan.
Well, icouldnt answer them.
Or rather, my answer was "developers dont want to sacrifice their games just to push PS3´s hardware numbers".
So, does anyone have a better answer?
It´s hard to believe that simply noone planned to release a game in all those weeks, especially Sony themselves.

True, its a mistake by Sony by not having games comming more frequently after launch. I think it has something to do with getting the right development tools out too. Didnt some important ones like Edge get out late?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Actually, in Japan FFVIII sold more than FFVII...

Actually in Japan you're wrong.

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

:lol

You don't even know what revenue is, do you?

Pardon? I wasn't referring to profit, which is what I assume you thought I really meant. If not, then wtf?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Pardon? I wasn't referring to profit, which is what I assume you thought I really meant. If not, then wtf?

If you really did mean revenue instead of profit, then development costs don't come into play at all.

 

[TJ Spyke]

Here in the US, PS3 games cost abour $60 on average. So FF XIII could make the same revenue as FF XII even if it sold less copies. So if it sold DOUBLE what FF XII did, then it would bring in like 220% of the revenue that XII did.

 

[Scottlarock]

Indeed, Take a look at this:

Nintendo (NTDOY)
http://new.quote.com/stocks/overview.action?s=NTDOY

Sony (SNE), Whole Company:
http://new.quote.com/stocks/overview.action?sym=SNE

Check Market Cap on both Companies, not that far apart...

For comparision (just to show how much bigger Microsoft is, compared to the other two):

Microsoft (MSFT), whole company:
http://new.quote.com/stocks/overview.action?sym=MSFT

really late to this post, but holy hell!
Nintendo is HUGE!, I wonder if they will get into other things besides gaming??

 

[Eteric Rice]

Here in the US, PS3 games cost abour $60 on average. So FF XIII could make the same revenue as FF XII even if it sold less copies. So if it sold DOUBLE what FF XII did, then it would bring in like 220% of the revenue that XII did.

I'm betting XIII will cost more than XII did, so...

 

[TJ Spyke]

No doubt. XIII will have to sell more copies to make as much profit as XII (if XIII costs more money to develop), but it can makes the same amount of revenue while selling less copies.

 

[Xavien]

No doubt. XIII will have to sell more copies to make as much profit as XII (if XIII costs more money to develop), but it can makes the same amount of revenue while selling less copies.

The only way that could happen is if they charged more, if they charge the same as FF12 and sell less copies, revenue is going to go down and so will profits (if they get any).

 

[Mariah Carey]

How much are we realistically expecting FFXIII to sell in Japan? When it's released, PS3 might not even have a 2 million userbase. I'm seeing the 1.5 million number being thrown around, but that sounds like an insane ratio of FFXIII to PS3 sales. Could we really be seeing nearly every single PS3 owner out there picking up FFXIII, or, as I suspect, if there are that few PS3's out there that FFXIII's total would be less than a million?

 

[Polari]

How much are we realistically expecting FFXIII to sell in Japan? When it's released, PS3 might not even have a 2 million userbase. I'm seeing the 1.5 million number being thrown around, but that sounds like an insane ratio of FFXIII to PS3 sales. Could we really be seeing nearly every single PS3 owner out there picking up FFXIII, or, as I suspect, if there are that few PS3's out there that FFXIII's total would be less than a million?

I'd imagine it would have a very high tie ratio. The sort of people who have picked up a PS3 to date are also probably the sort of people who are Final Fantasy fans.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

1.5 million would be a stretch, but if it came down to it, I could totally see a MArio 64/Blue Dragon like buying up of PS3s just to play the game then selling it afterwards.

 

[apotema]

Actually in Japan you're wrong.

Actually in Japan he is right.... FFVII got an International Version.... but if you compare VII Vs VIII alone, VIII sold more

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How much are we realistically expecting FFXIII to sell in Japan? When it's released, PS3 might not even have a 2 million userbase. I'm seeing the 1.5 million number being thrown around, but that sounds like an insane ratio of FFXIII to PS3 sales. Could we really be seeing nearly every single PS3 owner out there picking up FFXIII, or, as I suspect, if there are that few PS3's out there that FFXIII's total would be less than a million?

If we really take the comparisons of PS3 to N64 and GCN all the way, GCN never had a game reach even 1.5 million, but N64 had a few manage around 2 million. It's still possible that the biggest of PS3 games could do the same.

I'd imagine it would have a very high tie ratio. The sort of people who have picked up a PS3 to date are also probably the sort of people who are Final Fantasy fans.

Yeah, the people buying a PS3 from here on will do so for a good reason, and the big games like FF XIII are the biggest reasons around.

 

[Deku]

1.5 million would be a stretch, but if it came down to it, I could totally see a MArio 64/Blue Dragon like buying up of PS3s just to play the game then selling it afterwards.

That would be tragic

 

[Fuzzy]

Edit- I'm an idiot.

Some people gets tags after saying something like that.

 

[MrPing1000]

really late to this post, but holy hell!
Nintendo is HUGE!, I wonder if they will get into other things besides gaming??

love hotels.

 

[Datschge]

What FF13 version are people even talking about?

Spoiler

If the milking up till now is any indication by the time any FF13 game will be released all platforms will be flooded with FF-this-and-that that nobody cares about their sales anymore.

 

[PantherLotus]

How much are we realistically expecting FFXIII to sell in Japan? When it's released, PS3 might not even have a 2 million userbase. I'm seeing the 1.5 million number being thrown around, but that sounds like an insane ratio of FFXIII to PS3 sales. Could we really be seeing nearly every single PS3 owner out there picking up FFXIII, or, as I suspect, if there are that few PS3's out there that FFXIII's total would be less than a million?

Look at it this way.

If not one person in Japan that intends on buying FFXIII owns a PS3 yet, and every single person that bought FFXII decides to buy a PS3 the moment that it is released, the PS3 will barely catch up with the Wii in unit sales. (based on the assumption that the Wii will double its current 1.5 million unit lead before XIII's release)

So, it's a long shot, but it's possible. Possible as in: not ****ing likely.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Look at it this way.

If not one person in Japan that intends on buying FFXIII owns a PS3 yet, and every single person that bought FFXII decides to buy a PS3 the moment that it is released, the PS3 will barely catch up with the Wii in unit sales. (based on the assumption that the Wii will double its current 1.5 million unit lead before XIII's release)

So, it's a long shot, but it's possible. Possible as in: not ****ing likely.

You mean if they released FFXIII now, right? In 2008, I think the gap will probably be to big by then.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Actually in Japan he is right.... FFVII got an International Version.... but if you compare VII Vs VIII alone, VIII sold more

Yep.

without FFVII international, FFVIII has VII beat by a few hundred thousand units.

 

[PantherLotus]

You mean if they released FFXIII now, right? In 2008, I think the gap will probably be to big by then.

I DID say if the Wii only doubled it's lead before its release, was extremely conservative. I think it's likely the Wii will have a 3 million unit lead after this Christmas. I was just trying to lay out some hope.

Bastard.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Look at it this way.

If not one person in Japan that intends on buying FFXIII owns a PS3 yet, and every single person that bought FFXII decides to buy a PS3 the moment that it is released, the PS3 will barely catch up with the Wii in unit sales. (based on the assumption that the Wii will double its current 1.5 million unit lead before XIII's release)

So, it's a long shot, but it's possible. Possible as in: not ****ing likely.

I know, pity we can't talk about it.

So instead, let me talk about Tekken 6. GAF seems to treat it as a foregone conclusion that there'll be a 360 port, but I believe that there's a reasonable chance that Sony can keep it to the PS3 exclusively, even counting the Ace Combat announcement. Namco has the precedent of the bad Xbox Soul Calibur 2 sales, and I'm pretty sure the VF5(360) sales will also be a sales non-event. There's a "sell as widely as possible" argument, to be sure, but I believe there's also a "why even bother" argument which is essentially as strong.

 

[PantherLotus]

I know, pity we can't talk about it.

So instead, let me talk about Tekken 6. GAF seems to treat it as a foregone conclusion that there'll be a 360 port, but I believe that there's a reasonable chance that Sony can keep it to the PS3 exclusively, even counting the Ace Combat announcement. Namco has the precedent of the bad Xbox Soul Calibur 2 sales, and I'm pretty sure the VF5(360) sales will also be a sales non-event. There's a "sell as widely as possible" argument, to be sure, but I believe there's also a "why even bother" argument which is essentially as strong.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Namco does something funny with Tekken 6. I've always thought of it as a Playstation game, though...not that it matters now. Money talks, bullshit walks. If Sony is willing to pay the difference between a multi-console port of the game's potential sales and what the game will sell if it's exclusive to the PS3...it's just as likely to remain exclusive. (see SCIII)

The thing is, that amount that Sony will have to be paying for exclusivity is surely rising.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I think Square Enix has to take the average for producing on PS3 into consideration, but it doesn't seem as though they are. Considering that FFXII had, what, a $10 million+ budget, and FFXIII looks infinitely more complex to produce. Plus, I can't remember where I read it, but the budget estimate for XIII was supposedly above $25 million, so yeah... no good news to be had there.

What makes you think FFXIII is so complex to make? Other than fancier graphics it's not like they're dealing with crowd-based AI, realistic physics, or multiplayer support. It's just another RPG but it looks nicer. And with better management they can release the game on time instead of delaying it for over a year like they did with FFXII, hence not busting their budget. No big deal here.

But yes PS3 sales are bad, they need to figure a way to change things around at Sony. More games won't be enough. Still I think in the end they'll take the right decision, and will manage to remain be #2 worldwide after Nintendo (altho I still believe the Wii will tank in 2008 outside Japan while the DS will continue to generate more sales).

 

[Sharp]

What makes you think FFXIII is so complex to make? Other than fancier graphics it's not like they're dealing with crowd-based AI, realistic physics, or multiplayer support. It's just another RPG but it looks nicer. And with better management they can release the game on time instead of delaying it for over a year like they did with FFXII, hence not busting their budget. No big deal here.

But yes PS3 sales are bad, they need to figure a way to change things around at Sony. More games won't be enough. Still I think in the end they'll pull through.

Dude, what are you talking about? They've been working on FFXIII for so long it actually switched from PS2 to PS3 in mid-development. FFXIII is definitely going to have a bigger budget than FFXII, if only for the HD assets and cinematics.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I DID say if the Wii only doubled it's lead before its release, was extremely conservative. I think it's likely the Wii will have a 3 million unit lead after this Christmas. I was just trying to lay out some hope.

Bastard.

Eh, as a Nintendo fan since the SNES era, I had to go through some pretty shitty times with the Sony fanboys.

So what I'm basically going to say is...

"Give them nothing, and take from them!... EVERYTHING!"



(Yes, I'm kidding)

 

[Ether_Snake]

Dude, what are you talking about? They've been working on FFXIII for so long it actually switched from PS2 to PS3 in mid-development. FFXIII is definitely going to have a bigger budget than FFXII, if only for the HD assets and cinematics.

It's true it was in development for PS2 but you have no idea how much they had done. If the game was just in conception they could have had at most 15 to 20 people on it, and we don't know for how long they had been working on it or what they had actually done so far, plus they would have most likely made it based on what they already made for FFXII, so scraping everything would not have been much of a big deal.

As for HD assets it's getting faster and faster to produce. Obviously it takes more time than on PS2 games. But this is the same for any company right now. While Square is making FFXIII, other companies are spending far more money trying to make much more advanced technical features for their games AS WELL as HD assets.

As for the cinematics they got their studio up and running fulltime, making cinematics for all of their games. It's not a problem, and they're even making such cinematics for PSP, DS and Wii games. If there is one department at Square that is unaffected by the next-gen leap it's their cinematics dept.

 

[Link]

Should be interesting to see reactions when Square-Enix announces the price for FFXIII in Japan. I have a feeling it's going to be quite high.

 

[Sharp]

It's true it was in development for PS2 but you have no idea how much they had done. If the game was just in conception they could have had at most 15 to 20 people on it, and we don't know for how long they had been working on it or what they had actually done so far, plus they would have most likely made it based on what they already made for FFXII, so scraping everything would not have been much of a big deal.

As for HD assets it's getting faster and faster to produce. Obviously it takes more time than on PS2 games. But this is the same for any company right now. While Square is making FFXIII, other companies are spending far more money trying to make much more advanced technical features for their games AS WELL as HD assets.

As for the cinematics they got their studio up and running fulltime, making cinematics for all of their games. It's not a problem, and they're even making such cinematics for PSP, DS and Wii games. If there is one department at Square that is unaffected by the next-gen leap it's their cinematics dept.

I'm just having a hard time believing that the development of the White Engine, an incredibly complex 3D world in HD, HD cinematics, polish of the usual Final Fantasy ilk, maybe a year's worth of PS2 development, and all the usual FF baggage will end up costing less than a typical next-gen game, and less than FFXII.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm just having a hard time believing that the development of the White Engine, an incredibly complex 3D world in HD, HD cinematics, polish of the usual Final Fantasy ilk, maybe a year's worth of PS2 development, and all the usual FF baggage will end up costing less than a typical next-gen game, and less than FFXII.

I'm not saying it will be less expensive than FFXII to make (where did I say that?). I'm saying it is not "overly complex". In the sense that the way they make the game is extremely straightforward, nothing really new, hence why I compared it to games that are much more complex to make (without naming them, there are plenty).

The White Engine would have been used to make various other games, hence it would have been a long-term investment. I'm not sure how flexible it is at the moment. If it is flexible enough they could use it for their Wii, PS3, and 360 games. If it was made with the PS3 in mind then they are pretty much stuck, which would explain the recent acquisition of the Unreal license (which makes me think the White Engine might be extremely PS3-specific, hence it was less costly to get Unreal than make the necessary adjustment to make multiplatform games possible with their own engine).

Regardless, my comment was just on FFXIII not being, as you said, overly-complex. It is much less complex to make than a whole lot of games other companies are making, some of which are likely to be complete failures as far as profitability will go anyway.

 

[Xavien]

Are we now entering the FF13 for <insert console here> discussion? good good, i wouldn't want to miss the same discussion in every Media-Create thread, week after week after week

Seriously guys, haven't we gone over this a thousand times already? surely all the talking points have been talked about and all the arguments have been given, yet this discussion appears in every Media-Create thread every week, without fail. :lol :lol

 

[SouthernDragon]

Each week the numbers increase the probability.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Actually in Japan he is right.... FFVII got an International Version.... but if you compare VII Vs VIII alone, VIII sold more

Yes, obviously, but they didn't release VII vs VIII alone, they release VII International. You don't get to discount Playstation Best Price / International / Directors Cuts when you're talking about game sales.

Look at games like Persona 3 or Star Ocean 3 that literally doubled their sales with Directors Cuts. Almost all international releases give at least 20-30% bonus sales.

 

[damisa]

Namco has the precedent of the bad Xbox Soul Calibur 2 sales, .

Soul Calibur 2 sold great on xbox, less than the other two versions but still very good.