Support NeoGAF

[BishopLamont]

Uhm...
when a system is around 18mln, 20k for first day is a bomba
when a system is around 3mln.... it's not a bomba, should i have to post some DS 3rd party game numbers after 7 months it was on the market?

Yes it's a bomba relatively speaking, but if you were a developer would you rather release it on the DS or say the PS3? Don't forget development costs and advertisements, there's more to it than just a number.

 

[apotema]

Well DK was a bomb, I mean, DK used to be a multi million seller

And Harvest Moon, GC versions sold like 100,000 why this one couldn't make it? Same for Naruto and One Piece.... and maybe Momotarou and Pro Baseball

Besides that, great performance for the big 2 Wii games, Paper Mario and Dragon Quest

 

[titiklabingapat]

Well DK was a bomb, I mean, DK used to be a multi million seller

And Harvest Moon, GC versions sold like 100,000 why this one couldn't make it? Same for Naruto and One Piece.... and maybe Momotarou and Pro Baseball

Besides that, great performance for the big 2 Wii games, Paper Mario and Dragon Quest

I thought One Piece Wii did okay, I wouldnt consider 70k a bomba, considering that a)it got mediocre reviews b)anime shoverlware and c) the Wii's userbase was lower back then. Harvest Moon was mediocre to a bit poor, not total bomb. It was inline with the other HMs. DK deserved to bomb, there was a reason why it suddenly just popped out a month before it's release. It was a pretty crappy game with a crappy control scheme.

The baseball game is a bomba, though. But so was the PS2 version compared to previous iterations and install base.

 

[Moor-Angol]

I'm sure Harvest Moon Wii is still selling, maybe 2-3k weekly... many HM titles disappeared from charts but kept selling for many weeks, even on DS

the story "3rd parties don't sell on Nintendo systems" it's boring nowadays, honestly... we have DQ:S which is the best debut for any (i say again: ANY) next gen system in Japan, a PS2 port (DBZ) sold over 100k, a GC/PS2 port is probably around 100k (guess what game it is, ehehehehe), Gundam 0079 i'm sure will overpass 100k... ok, DJ Bongo Blast is a bomba, but honestly it's not a worth game IMO.

This kind of discussion reminds me DS situation when Slime Mori Mori and DBZ were released (LTD for both games are around 300k). I can agree with you if Treasure Island Z will bomba, but i feel it won't happen...



About Power Pro Yakyuu: the brand is going down since ealier PS2 times, try to take a look at recent sales, IMO 100k LTD for Wii version should be a good result and similar to GC ones (it always sold much more on PS2 than on GC in the past)

 

[nightside]

I'm sure Harvest Moon Wii is still selling, maybe 2-3k weekly... many HM titles disappeared from charts but kept selling for many weeks, even on DS

the story "3rd parties don't sell on Nintendo systems" it's boring nowadays, honestly... we have DQ:S which is the best debut for any (i say again: ANY) next gen system in Japan, a PS2 port (DBZ) sold over 100k, a GC/PS2 port is probably around 100k (guess what game it is, ehehehehe), Gundam 0079 i'm sure will overpass 100k... ok, DJ Bongo Blast is a bomba, but honestly it's not a worth game IMO.

This kind of discussion reminds me DS situation when Slime Mori Mori and DBZ were released (LTD for both games are around 300k). I can agree with you if Treasure Island Z will bomba, but i feel it won't happen...



About Power Pro Yakyuu: the brand is going down since ealier PS2 times, try to take a look at recent sales, IMO 100k LTD for Wii version should be a good result and similar to GC ones (it always sold much more on PS2 than on GC in the past)

just like with ds, we'll see third party games hit the million...it's just a matter of time, and games...

 

[Neomoto]

I'm sorry if it's been asked in the last 16 pages but I whas wondering how much Tales of Symphonia sold on gc and ps2 in Japan, considering the sequal of that game is coming exclusively to Wii and it'll be interesting to see how that will go.

 

[Bo130]

I know this probably won't be very useful at all, but I noticed something. 5 onlinegames got released across Wii and DS in Japan thursday. Let's compare the two most succesful of these;

Naruto 5 for Nintendo DS had 904 connections thursday and 2,126 (+135% compared to thursday) connections friday.
Jikkyou Baseball for Wii had 4,692 connections thursday and 4,943 (+5% compared to thursday) connections friday.

If anything, I think it seems like Jikkyou is much more frontloaded than anything else released this week. I actually doubt it'll hit 100k, but I'll have to see the next couple of days activity online as well to determine anything of that matter. I'm really not sure about this, just thought I'd let you know.

 

[Moor-Angol]

I'm sorry if it's been asked in the last 16 pages but I whas wondering how much Tales of Symphonia sold on gc and ps2 in Japan, considering the sequal of that game is coming exclusively to Wii and it'll be interesting to see how that will go.

Tales of Symphonia

GC : 322.779 - 29/08/2003
PS2 : 390.414 - 22/09/2004


considering Tales of has dramatically lost appeal to japanese RPG lovers, 100k would be a decent result, 200k a good result.
But we have to consider when it will be released, winter holidays really help sales...

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Tales of Symphonia

GC : 322.779 - 29/08/2003
PS2 : 390.414 - 22/09/2004


considering Tales of has dramatically lost appeal to japanese RPG lovers, 100k would be a decent result, 200k a good result.
But we have to consider when it will be released, winter holidays really help sales...

It lost the appeal, because Namco shipped 1 tales of per Year and 3/4 games were crap.

 

[slaughterking]

It lost the appeal, because Namco shipped 1 tales of per week and 3/4 games were crap.

fixed

 

[Neomoto]

Tales of Symphonia

GC : 322.779 - 29/08/2003
PS2 : 390.414 - 22/09/2004


considering Tales of has dramatically lost appeal to japanese RPG lovers, 100k would be a decent result, 200k a good result.
But we have to consider when it will be released, winter holidays really help sales...

Thank you. Hopefully they have taken their time with this game, and it'll be good. If crappy ps2 ports can do 100k on the system, I think ToS can do better (also because of the holidays).

 

[ethelred]

Tales of Symphonia

GC : 322.779 - 29/08/2003
PS2 : 390.414 - 22/09/2004


considering Tales of has dramatically lost appeal to japanese RPG lovers, 100k would be a decent result, 200k a good result.
But we have to consider when it will be released, winter holidays really help sales...

Two things... first, you left out the Best release numbers for Symphonia PS2. Add those in and the PS2 sales total came out to 442,185.

Second, I very much disagree with your characterization of the series as one that has dramatically lost its appeal to Japanese RPG lovers. It's true that Tales historically has taken a dip in sales after the first installment in each new console generation, but it's still pulling in very high sales overall across for game -- it's easily one of the most popular RPG series in Japan.

If you look at the sales of the original main series installments since Destiny:

Destiny		 	895,177 
Eternia			669,248
Destiny 2		762,861 
Symphonia 		764,964
Rebirth			596,493
Legendia		343,332
Abyss			556,465
Tempest			196,073

There's a slight drop, but not anything really worrisome. Nothing, as you said, "dramatic." Rebirth and Abyss are lower, but still pulling in big numbers. The only two games that have really poor-to-middling sales are Legendia (which still sold more than the GCN Symphonia, for what it's worth) and Tempest (which was critically savaged and barely deserves to be in this list).


So, to bounce off that, I think you're setting the bar mighty low there for Tales of Symphonia: Knight of Ratatosk. Whether it's better understood as a sequel or a spinoff (a spinoff sequel seems accurate), 100k would not be decent -- it'd be downright poor. And 200k would not be good, it'd be okay. The game should really perform better than that, though -- the key is for Namco to make a good game. We'll see if they manage that.

Looking at what specifically the game is, it really seems like it's going to be a renamed Tales of the World -- between the point-and-click map and the subtitle ("Knight of Ratatosk" seems pretty comparable to "Summoner's Lineage" or "Radiant Mythology". But given that it's actually tagging Symphonia's name in and given the system's popularity/sales... I'd say that this game SHOULD at least (as in, at a minimum) match the prior Tales of the World games. Realistically, it should be able to outperform them

Phantasia: Narikiri Dungeon	154,602 
Narikiri Dungeon 2		186,413 
Narikiri Dungeon 3 		113,414 
Summoner's Lineage		52,102 	
Radiant Mythology		195,271

There's the bar I'd set. It should be able to beat RM. For it to be gauged a really notable success (the kind that makes publishers consider Wii more hospitable to third party RPGs), I'd expect 250k min.


Now, Innocence on the other hand... that'll need to perform a whole lot better to consider this a success. Unlike Tempest, Namco's serious about making this a true Tales game and it's the game launching their initiative to move the series to the NDS after the PS2. Innocence needs to pull in Rebirth/Abyss numbers at a minimum (550-600k) to be considered successful. Given that DQIX should be hitting near the same time and the DS should be surpassing the PS2's LTD around that time, frankly I'm inclined to say it should need to do even better than that and get up into Destiny/Destiny 2 territory.

 

[donny2112]

like most low-profile Wii games, that debut is close to its LTD.

Could the first week numbers be close to their LTDs because, oh I don't know, that they don't show up on the charts again, so we never get updates on them? Nah, it couldn't be that. You must be right in that when they fall off the charts, they sell 0 per week from there on out. It isn't like we have examples of other games falling off the chart months ago, and then blipping on the chart showing a substantial increase from that last update. That kind of stuff never happens.

You're right. Third-party Wii sales are trash, since Square-Enix is "special" and doesn't count.

 

[BishopLamont]

Don't bother with Lance, he will say something completely off topic, come up with more bs statistics or outright ignore you.

Oh and don't even say you were joking about that PS3 percentage, you were serious. You just don't know your maths.

 

[donny2112]

Don't bother with Lance, he will say something completely off topic, come up with more bs statistics or outright ignore you.

I'm just messing with LanceStern. I think he makes some statements without always thinking about all the reasons why what he says may be true. In this case, the LTD of some lower-selling games is equal/close to the first week for the clear reason that they didn't chart again. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that they've sold badly. They could've, certainly, but as we've seen with some DS games cropping back into the charts recently, they could still be selling but just below the lower limit of the charts.

He's very doom and gloom about sales on the Wii (despite the recent historical precedent of the DS), so I just wanted to offer up an alternative viewpoint.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I'm just messing with LanceStern. I think he makes some statements without always thinking about all the reasons why what he says may be true. In this case, the LTD of some lower-selling games is equal/close to the first week for the clear reason that they didn't chart again. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that they've sold badly. They could've, certainly, but as we've seen with some DS games cropping back into the charts recently, they could still be selling but just below the lower limit of the charts.

He's very doom and gloom about sales on the Wii (despite the recent historical precedent of the DS), so I just wanted to offer up an alternative viewpoint.

I think the majority agree with your point of view. Lance is Lance. We know him and we know his "mathematical limits" to define if a game is a success or not. <200k is a success; 199k is a bomb>.

For me, the BIG question I've always had trouble to find an asnwer, is why Third Parties are still relative reluctant to bring big franchise on Nintendo's consoles.
Wait: this is not to open a new useless war, but after seeing that Third Party games CAN sell very well on DS (as Square-Enix already showed us) and that the Wii IS potentially a big oppurtunity to increase sales, AND considered the low developing costs and low time of productions, I cannot really understand why some Third parties simply don't take seriously Nintendo.

Is that really SO strange to expect announcements like Dragon Quest IX on DS, after all ? It's not important if the constructor leader is named Nintendo or Sony or "Insert Name". What matters is the installed base, how fast is this installed base growing and how much it costs to make games for this console. Period. Nothing more. Nothing less. But BIG, high budget games are still for PS3 and X360. I can understand the latter (because in the west is doing great software-wise and ok hardware-wise), but not the former.

And it's not a fanboy's problem: I cannot understand this thing from an economic view. And we know that economy is the only thing that explain the behave of an industry (if we exclude external factors).
Is the X console selling worse then predicted ? Are the costs too high and the installes base too small ? Simply, abandon it, like it has been with the N64 and the Gamecube.

 

[Koren]

Is that really SO strange to expect announcements like Dragon Quest IX on DS, after all ?

It is, but not because it's Nintendo (there has been countless Square and Enix decent RPG on GB). Because one of the major flagship RPG reach portable market. It has become more relevant in Japan (at least for a short time, maybe more) than the home market, which is quite unseen.

I'm not sure I understand the stance towards Wii neither. I guess it was unexpected, and editors want to see if Wii attract "real" gamers (that can really buy games) or more casual gamers that will be satisfied with two games a year (still, that was the case for many PS2 buyers, and not a big problem).

 

[Kaeru]

For me, the BIG question I've always had trouble to find an asnwer, is why Third Parties are still relative reluctant to bring big franchise on Nintendo's consoles.
Wait: this is not to open a new useless war, but after seeing that Third Party games CAN sell very well on DS (as Square-Enix already showed us) and that the Wii IS potentially a big oppurtunity to increase sales, AND considered the low developing costs and low time of productions, I cannot really understand why some Third parties simply don't take seriously Nintendo.

Is that really SO strange to expect announcements like Dragon Quest IX on DS, after all ? It's not important if the constructor leader is named Nintendo or Sony or "Insert Name". What matters is the installed base, how fast is this installed base growing and how much it costs to make games for this console. Period. Nothing more. Nothing less. But BIG, high budget games are still for PS3 and X360. I can understand the latter (because in the west is doing great software-wise and ok hardware-wise), but not the former.

And it's not a fanboy's problem: I cannot understand this thing from an economic view. And we know that economy is the only thing that explain the behave of an industry (if we exclude external factors).
Is the X console selling worse then predicted ? Are the costs too high and the installes base too small ? Simply, abandon it, like it has been with the N64 and the Gamecube.

I too, want to know this.
Maybe developers are so caught up in establishing franshises and compete who can make the prettiest game this week.
Also big companies have a harder time to change direction. They probably planned the victors(PS3) of this generation years ago.
Look at smaller companies like Majesco, they have had an easier time to adapt to this new shift in the industry.

Or maybe I have no idea whatsoever

 

[ethelred]

For me, the BIG question I've always had trouble to find an asnwer, is why Third Parties are still relative reluctant to bring big franchise on Nintendo's consoles. [...] Is that really SO strange to expect announcements like Dragon Quest IX on DS, after all ?

Well, we are seeing such announcements. I made this point in that Tales thread, and I stand by it: while Square Enix was the first (with games like FFXII: RW, Subarashiki Kono Sekai, FFIVr, and of course Dragon Quest IX), other third parties have followed suit. Tecmo held a press conference to state its newfound devotion to the DS, and its big reveal was the not-at-all insignificant Ninja Gaiden DS. Konami's got Contra 4. Sega's putting Sakura Taisen and, more notably, the BioWare-developed Sonic RPG on DS. Now Namco says Tales'll be on the DS for the foreseeable future.

That's five big Japanese publishers with major series moves or exclusives. There have been more major announcements than just DQIX -- but DQIX is still the biggest, because it's still the king of all third party series in Japan. Tokyo Game Show should be run -- I imagine there'll be some more interesting announcements there.

As to the Wii, stuff's coming. Not major, DQIX-level stuff, because the Wii still hasn't warranted that, but stuff is coming. People just need to be more patient. Console games take a long time to develop and publishers mostly aren't going to reveal stuff until they're in presentable form. But even then, really big announcements aren't going to be here in the immediate future simply because the Wii is still only really proving itself -- while, sure, it follows the precedent of the DS and some people believed from the start that it'd see similar sales, there were still reasonable arguments to make that it wouldn't be a repeat. Lots of publishers still believe even now that it's temporary (whether you view that as a tenable position or not).

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Well, we are seeing such announcements. I made this point in that Tales thread, and I stand by it: while Square Enix was the first (with games like FFXII: RW, Subarashiki Kono Sekai, FFIVr, and of course Dragon Quest IX), other third parties have followed suit. Tecmo held a press conference to state its newfound devotion to the DS, and its big reveal was the not-at-all insignificant Ninja Gaiden DS. Konami's got Contra 4. Sega's putting Sakura Taisen and, more notably, the BioWare-developed Sonic RPG on DS. Now Namco says Tales'll be on the DS for the foreseeable future.

That's five big Japanese publishers with major series moves or exclusives. There have been more major announcements than just DQIX -- but DQIX is still the biggest, because it's still the king of all third party series in Japan. Tokyo Game Show should be run -- I imagine there'll be some more interesting announcements there.

As to the Wii, stuff's coming. Not major, DQIX-level stuff, because the Wii still hasn't warranted that, but stuff is coming. People just need to be more patient. Console games take a long time to develop and publishers mostly aren't going to reveal stuff until they're in presentable form. But even then, really big announcements aren't going to be here in the immediate future simply because the Wii is still only really proving itself -- while, sure, it follows the precedent of the DS and some people believed from the start that it'd see similar sales, there were still reasonable arguments to make that it wouldn't be a repeat. Lots of publishers still believe even now that it's temporary (whether you view that as a tenable position or not).

Good explaination. Thanks !

 

[LanceStern]

I really wish I had time to answer all of you guys.

1. BishopLament

Don't bother with Lance, he will say something completely off topic, come up with more bs statistics or outright ignore you.

Oh and don't even say you were joking about that PS3 percentage, you were serious. You just don't know your maths.

I can agree with saying something completely off-topic, but you've been discrediting me for a few pages in this topic so i guess I should clarify.

The only reason I ignored your comments is because they were basically insults or rhetorical. I take a great deal of care in trying to respond to everyone that likes to talk to me (one of my real traits as well) because everyone deserves a voice in a matter and deserves a response as well.

I believe most of your comments were either: "Your prediction is wrong so don't talk anymore" or "He's just making up bs" or something like that. So what was I supposed to respond to you with?

I'll respond if it's able to be responded to without flaming/insults, or if it's a statement that was meant for me to respond to.

And I don't very much appreciate you saying I make up bs statistics. This is my first topic EVER making ANY statistics, but you make it seem as a habit of mine. I only did that (saying PS3 would reach 100k per week, purposely removing Wii's last week) because I felt MC threads needed a laugh.

I keep reading a lot of complaints that MC threads were getting boring, and I spiced it up. Quite a few members here appreciated it and laughed, but Dragona and I clarified things "behind closed doors" that it was for amusement only, in which I stopped when she told me to.

I believe I've responded to you now completely and properly.

2. Moor-angol

considering Tales of has dramatically lost appeal to japanese RPG lovers, 100k would be a decent result, 200k a good result.
But we have to consider when it will be released, winter holidays really help sales...

As ethelred has already responded, I will agree with him with an emphatic "I disagree 100k-200k would be a success or good result for a Tales game". The titles still sell great in Japan *see ethel's list* and this is the one time where some people could agree that if a Tales game DIDN'T reach 300k, somethings seriously wrong with either the game, or the system's software selling capabilities. For the DS, it is the former.

the story "3rd parties don't sell on Nintendo systems" it's boring nowadays, honestly... we have DQ:S which is the best debut for any (i say again: ANY) next gen system in Japan, a PS2 port (DBZ) sold over 100k, a GC/PS2 port is probably around 100k (guess what game it is, ehehehehe), Gundam 0079 i'm sure will overpass 100k... ok, DJ Bongo Blast is a bomba, but honestly it's not a worth game IMO.

I still can't say that for the Wii yet. I'm almost completely convinced 3rd parties sell well on the DS in any region, but the Wii isn't doing that for me yet, especially japan. You can't cite ONE title that sold well and then say the Wii does great wit 3rd party, seeing as how all other 3rd party Wii games barely broke 100k, which isn't a very good success considering it's userbase now.

The problem being that with 3 million users there, most 3rd party games still continue to debut low and then drop off next week. I'm hoping for the "DS effect" to kick in

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I still can't say that for the Wii yet. I'm almost completely convinced 3rd parties sell well on the DS in any region, but the Wii isn't doing that for me yet, especially japan. You can't cite ONE title that sold well and then say the Wii does great wit 3rd party, seeing as how all other 3rd party Wii games barely broke 100k, which isn't a very good success considering it's userbase now.

Oh man. Dragon Quest Swords is the first BIG Third party game for Wii shipped in Japan. I don't think you expected 500k for Dragonball or Elebits. As Ethelred said, give them time ! After all, the Wii is out only since some months and it is REALLY too early too make conclusion. Look at the DS: we can conclude something only now, after almost 3 years ! And I'm sure that we haven't seen all on this handheld ! Dragon Quest IX is not the last BIG game for DS...

 

[KINGMOKU]

I think the majority agree with your point of view. Lance is Lance. We know him and we know his "mathematical limits" to define if a game is a success or not. <200k is a success; 199k is a bomb>.

For me, the BIG question I've always had trouble to find an asnwer, is why Third Parties are still relative reluctant to bring big franchise on Nintendo's consoles.
Wait: this is not to open a new useless war, but after seeing that Third Party games CAN sell very well on DS (as Square-Enix already showed us) and that the Wii IS potentially a big oppurtunity to increase sales, AND considered the low developing costs and low time of productions, I cannot really understand why some Third parties simply don't take seriously Nintendo.

Is that really SO strange to expect announcements like Dragon Quest IX on DS, after all ? It's not important if the constructor leader is named Nintendo or Sony or "Insert Name". What matters is the installed base, how fast is this installed base growing and how much it costs to make games for this console. Period. Nothing more. Nothing less. But BIG, high budget games are still for PS3 and X360. I can understand the latter (because in the west is doing great software-wise and ok hardware-wise), but not the former.

And it's not a fanboy's problem: I cannot understand this thing from an economic view. And we know that economy is the only thing that explain the behave of an industry (if we exclude external factors).
Is the X console selling worse then predicted ? Are the costs too high and the installes base too small ? Simply, abandon it, like it has been with the N64 and the Gamecube.

You pose a very interesting question, and one that should not be mired with fanboy bullshit.

There are a miriad of reason why third-party developers havnt been as quick to jump on board. These reason are my own, as I have tried to make sense of what, in my view, has to be one of the most assinine business decisions I have ever seen, by a huge amount of companies within one industry.

1.)History. This, to me, is the #1 reason third-party developers have been reluctant to just "dive in" when developing Wii/DS games, instead of on other platforms. Nintendo has an awful history in dealing with third-parties.

2.)Nintendo competition. This is very close to #1, and related to #1. Nintendo's own games, will outsell thier third-party counter-parts by massive margins, and will be technically superior becuase of the massive studio backing them, allowing for extended dev times, and endless resources. Everyone knows that when Nintendo releases a "big gun", it's sales will dwarf everything else on the platform, including third-party games within the same genre.

3.)Burning bridges. ALOT of companies burnt bridges with Nintendo back in the day, by just ourtight bailing on them. Nintendo didnt forget this. It would seem some third-parties are bieng a hell of alot nicer to struggling platforms then they were in the past. This industry has shown that if you burn a certain bridge, odds are that your going to end up having to use that bridge once again. People within these companies have long memories.

4.)Fear of absolute dominance. Nintendo owns the handhled market, and is selling more handhelds then it ever has. Now Nintendo is dominating the console realm. If I was athird-party dev., I would be a little on edge right now. There is money to be made on the 360, no question. But how long can you ignore the coming Wii-Wave? Do you want an industry completly dominated by one console maker, on both platforms?(Handhled, Console)

This is my guess. Nintendo's past, and fear of having to obey on demand one super powerfull company.

 

[AniHawk]

I know this is incredibly off-topic and means virtually nothing, but I just got back from The Store (I've only worked there once a week for about the last month or two [got another job somewhere else], so suddenly preorder numbers are interesting to me again).

Anyway:

Guitar Hero III: 134
Wii: 45
360: 41
PS2: 27
PS3: 21

SSBB: 17 (preorders started on this today. The Store got about 18 Wiis to sell too, which has been an extra boost)

SMG: 8 (preorders also started today)

Fire Emblem: 5 (see above)

Metroid Prime 3: 16

The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass: 83

Bioshock CE: 16

Halo 3: 344 (the most The Store ever had was 400 for Halo 2)
Regular: 185
Legendary: 135
Collector's: 24

GTAIV: 70 or so
PS3: guesstimating around 30, including CE
360 Regular: 26
360 CE: 16

Layton and Contra 4 were recently added too, but I didn't see how many reservations there were.

 

[LanceStern]

3. donny2112

Could the first week numbers be close to their LTDs because, oh I don't know, that they don't show up on the charts again, so we never get updates on them? Nah, it couldn't be that. You must be right in that when they fall off the charts, they sell 0 per week from there on out. It isn't like we have examples of other games falling off the chart months ago, and then blipping on the chart showing a substantial increase from that last update. That kind of stuff never happens.

You're right. Third-party Wii sales are trash, since Square-Enix is "special" and doesn't count

Interesting point there, but th eproblem is they never resurface again: even with a spike in Wii sales, they don't show back up; which tells us the userbase doesn't care about the game anymore. What they do tell us is that they sure do love to pick up Wii SPorts and Wii Play, forget about those dumb ol' third party games.

I think the biggest hit, to me at least, was Zelda Twilight Princess. So much hard work put into a great game, and it sold very wwell by GAF standards, and all the trends pointed to Zelda series declining and Japan gamers liking non-traditonal games more and more, but still it was a harsh blow to still not even crack 500k

I'm just messing with LanceStern. I think he makes some statements without always thinking about all the reasons why what he says may be true. In this case, the LTD of some lower-selling games is equal/close to the first week for the clear reason that they didn't chart again. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that they've sold badly. They could've, certainly, but as we've seen with some DS games cropping back into the charts recently, they could still be selling but just below the lower limit of the charts.

He's very doom and gloom about sales on the Wii (despite the recent historical precedent of the DS), so I just wanted to offer up an alternative viewpoint.

I take that comment personally (in a good, constructive criticism sort off way) and will work on it in upcoming threads. You should see me even now! I take about 2 to 3 minutes singing before I type a response (to wipe out any emotion from posts) haha.

When I think about it, I shouldn't be too harsh on Wii sales because it still has time to sell some games. But I have to voice my worry: I worry that 3rd parties are going to start relying on Wiimakes and such to make money, and thereby hurt our gaming library. If the real games that they put hard work in don't sell on PS3 and 360 in japan, and then they try on the Wii and it too doesn't sell, what are they left to do? We're stuck with half-baked efforts.

But I'm hopeful for more Wii sales, and DQS could be the right start. But depends on whether or not the 2nd week goes well.

4. ethelred

So, to bounce off that, I think you're setting the bar mighty low there for Tales of Symphonia: Knight of Ratatosk. Whether it's better understood as a sequel or a spinoff (a spinoff sequel seems accurate), 100k would not be decent -- it'd be downright poor. And 200k would not be good, it'd be okay. The game should really perform better than that, though -- the key is for Namco to make a good game. We'll see if they manage that.

So what are you saying would be good for a next Tales game?

5. Mithos Yggdrasil

I think the majority agree with your point of view. Lance is Lance. We know him and we know his "mathematical limits" to define if a game is a success or not. <200k is a success; 199k is a bomb>.

You're still one of the nicer ones here. You're on my "A list" haha ^_^

For me, the BIG question I've always had trouble to find an asnwer, is why Third Parties are still relative reluctant to bring big franchise on Nintendo's consoles.
Wait: this is not to open a new useless war, but after seeing that Third Party games CAN sell very well on DS (as Square-Enix already showed us) and that the Wii IS potentially a big oppurtunity to increase sales, AND considered the low developing costs and low time of productions, I cannot really understand why some Third parties simply don't take seriously Nintendo.

ethel gave a good answer, as did moku, and I guess I could throw in my small opinion on the matter. I think 3rd parties are still sitting back waiting for more "hits" on the Wii. Dragon Quest Swords is a good start, but thenagain so was Tamagotchi for the DS and yet still on SquareEnix and Sega could penetrate good sellers before Rocket COmpany and IE and such could come in and sell well.

I believe they still might have that intimidated mindset that only Nintendo's titles and a few of their "dreamteam" 3rd parties will sell well on the system. Wii Sports, Zelda, Wario, Super Paper Mario, Brain Age and Wii Play being the undeniable proof until now (Where DQS finally made a bump into Wii top sellers).

That, or they could be seeking more next-gen technology (PS3 and 360) and relying on good sales in US and such.

I can see some 3rd parties just not accepting that Wii is less powerful and want to see their franchises take more of a leap forward (Metal Gear, Final Fantasy main series, Resident Evil 5, Devil May Cry) rather than taking the time to make their titles cater to the Wii's strength and make them as nice looking as Nintendo's efforts. Plus, the 360 is giving 3rd parties the sales they need so far WITH the technological advancements.

I believe one interview, some 3rd parties were completely irate with Wii not being more powerful, and thus they wouldn't release a big franchise on it.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

You're still one of the nicer ones here. You're on my "A list" haha ^_^

On the GAF need you need some spirit to enjoy it !

You pose a very interesting question, and one that should not be mired with fanboy bullshit.

There are a miriad of reason why third-party developers havnt been as quick to jump on board. These reason are my own, as I have tried to make sense of what, in my view, has to be one of the most assinine business decisions I have ever seen, by a huge amount of companies within one industry.

1.)History. This, to me, is the #1 reason third-party developers have been reluctant to just "dive in" when developing Wii/DS games, instead of on other platforms. Nintendo has an awful history in dealing with third-parties.

2.)Nintendo competition. This is very close to #1, and related to #1. Nintendo's own games, will outsell thier third-party counter-parts by massive margins, and will be technically superior becuase of the massive studio backing them, allowing for extended dev times, and endless resources. Everyone knows that when Nintendo releases a "big gun", it's sales will dwarf everything else on the platform, including third-party games within the same genre.

3.)Burning bridges. ALOT of companies burnt bridges with Nintendo back in the day, by just ourtight bailing on them. Nintendo didnt forget this. It would seem some third-parties are bieng a hell of alot nicer to struggling platforms then they were in the past. This industry has shown that if you burn a certain bridge, odds are that your going to end up having to use that bridge once again. People within these companies have long memories.

4.)Fear of absolute dominance. Nintendo owns the handhled market, and is selling more handhelds then it ever has. Now Nintendo is dominating the console realm. If I was athird-party dev., I would be a little on edge right now. There is money to be made on the 360, no question. But how long can you ignore the coming Wii-Wave? Do you want an industry completly dominated by one console maker, on both platforms?(Handhled, Console)

This is my guess. Nintendo's past, and fear of having to obey on demand one super powerfull company.

Wow. Your explaination is really convincing ! (I'm serious)

 

[ethelred]

Lance, I think one of the big problems with your sort of analysis is you either ignore or make yourself ignorant of historical precedents when you look at and critique sales. And I know this is something that's been hammered in over and over again -- you need to look beyond the DS, GBA, and other Nintendo systems and look at the market as a whole and how games and consoles have performed for years. You need to look at historical sales for prior games in a series, or comparable games (say, within the same genre or marketability level) before you go into this shit about success or failure.

Really, man -- get a hold of the Famitsu yearly charts and half-year charts. Go look at how certain series' have done on a per-installment basis. It's just not good to jump in and start talking about this stuff in the now before you educate yourself on the history here.

So what are you saying would be good for a next Tales game?

I laid out those numbers in my post. A main series Tales game should be pulling in a minimum of 550-600k to be considered mostly successful. Symphonia on the GameCube pulled decent number on an objective level, but they were subpar numbers in comparison to the series' performance, and that's what got Namco's ire.

If Namco intends to commit itself to the DS as they say, however, Innocence should really be moving well over that minimum -- 600-700k or so, honestly. But anything over 550k would be in line with previous sales and okay.

 

[nextgeneration]

Guitar Hero III: 134
Wii: 45
360: 41
PS2: 27
PS3: 21

Wow, surprised that Wii has the most preorders here. Oh, and did the 18 Wii's already sell out?

 

[AniHawk]

Wow, surprised that Wii has the most preorders here. Oh, and did the 18 Wii's already sell out?

The time I was there, they sold the remaining three. So it took about 4 hours or so from when the doors opened- pretty good, considering the size of The Store.

 

[laserbeam]

The time I was there, they sold the remaining three. So it took about 4 hours or so from when the doors opened- pretty good, considering the size of The Store.

Ive seen very similiar numbers at the EBgames around me for the GH3. Wii seems to be getting the most initital preorders at least.

Its promising everything the others offer with the added bonus of whatever they use the wiimote for so it seems to be appealing to people.

as far as the 18 wii thats pretty good sales rate roughly 4 an hour just by random people wanting a system

 

[AniHawk]

I'm kinda surprised at the Fire Emblem love, actually. I think PoR only had 8 or 10 at most.

 

[schuelma]

I know this is incredibly off-topic and means virtually nothing, but I just got back from The Store (I've only worked there once a week for about the last month or two [got another job somewhere else], so suddenly preorder numbers are interesting to me again).

Thanks for the report- much appreciated. Did any of your co-workers say if RE4 had been re-supplied?

 

[AniHawk]

Thanks for the report- much appreciated. Did any of your co-workers say if RE4 had been re-supplied?

I don't know. I didn't see it, but I didn't check, either.

 

[Parl]

Nice little report there, Ani.

 

[schuelma]

RE: The Wii GH3 pre-orders...Just a guess, but I bet a decent amount of 360/PS3 owners are waiting for Rock Band, while for Wii owners GH3 is all they're going to get (for the foreseeable future anyways).

 

[LanceStern]

Lance, I think one of the big problems with your sort of analysis is you either ignore or make yourself ignorant of historical precedents when you look at and critique sales. And I know this is something that's been hammered in over and over again -- you need to look beyond the DS, GBA, and other Nintendo systems and look at the market as a whole and how games and consoles have performed for years. You need to look at historical sales for prior games in a series, or comparable games (say, within the same genre or marketability level) before you go into this shit about success or failure.

Really, man -- get a hold of the Famitsu yearly charts and half-year charts. Go look at how certain series' have done on a per-installment basis. It's just not good to jump in and start talking about this stuff in the now before you educate yourself on the history here.

I can understand that. I DO look at them, but I cast them aside (probably a bad habit to pick up) with the changing atmosphere of gaming. I look at how the current system is selling titles.

Take DQS for example. I looked and understood at how the series' spinoffs did in the past, but the Wii HAD NOT been selling 3rd party titles in bulk. So I took that into consideration for my prediction.

I did this for the Nintendo DS a few times as well (to both positive and negative results)

If we ALWAYS stuck to historical precedents for titles, it would never explain Zelda's success on the DS, or Mario Kart DS, or Mario for that matter etc.

 

[ethelred]

I can understand that. I DO look at them, but I cast them aside (probably a bad habit to pick up) with the changing atmosphere of gaming.

Defiance of precedent needs to be understood as the exception, not the rule. Anyway, it's still necessary to know what those precedents are because otherwise there's no real starting point for effective analysis.

 

[cvxfreak]

Assume everything, yet assume nothing.

 

[Roders5]

Assume everything, yet assume nothing.

Never assume, it makes an ass out of u and me

 

[BishopLamont]

I really wish I had time to answer all of you guys.

1. BishopLament


I can agree with saying something completely off-topic, but you've been discrediting me for a few pages in this topic so i guess I should clarify.

The only reason I ignored your comments is because they were basically insults or rhetorical. I take a great deal of care in trying to respond to everyone that likes to talk to me (one of my real traits as well) because everyone deserves a voice in a matter and deserves a response as well.

I believe most of your comments were either: "Your prediction is wrong so don't talk anymore" or "He's just making up bs" or something like that. So what was I supposed to respond to you with?

I'll respond if it's able to be responded to without flaming/insults, or if it's a statement that was meant for me to respond to.

And I don't very much appreciate you saying I make up bs statistics. This is my first topic EVER making ANY statistics, but you make it seem as a habit of mine. I only did that (saying PS3 would reach 100k per week, purposely removing Wii's last week) because I felt MC threads needed a laugh.

I keep reading a lot of complaints that MC threads were getting boring, and I spiced it up. Quite a few members here appreciated it and laughed, but Dragona and I clarified things "behind closed doors" that it was for amusement only, in which I stopped when she told me to.

I believe I've responded to you now completely and properly.

First of all thanks for the proper reply. Secondly I've never insulted you, if you read properly the only thing that could remotely be insulting is me calling your predictions "insane". Now really is that flaming/insulting?

I've questioned your "400k" prediction, isn't that worthy of a reply? Why predict if you can't back it up? Is it that hard to admit that you were wrong?

Had anyone did that "100k for PS3" thing, I would've called them out on too, so it's not like I'm picking on you.

P.S It's BishopLamont

 

[AniHawk]

RE: The Wii GH3 pre-orders...Just a guess, but I bet a decent amount of 360/PS3 owners are waiting for Rock Band, while for Wii owners GH3 is all they're going to get (for the foreseeable future anyways).

There aren't as many reservations for Rock Band from what I saw.

 

[schuelma]

There aren't as many reservations for Rock Band from what I saw.

Well....ummmm.....never mind then.

 

[BishopLamont]

Oh and about third party for the Wii there's nothing to worry about. Long gone is the Nintendo of old, the new Nintendo knows how to handle it, third party have no choice but to support the Wii, or they'll starve to death. They've proven themselves with the DS, they will do it again with the Wii. Simple as that.

 

[AniHawk]

I predict one more really good holiday from GH before it enters a Tony Hawk-like cycle. If Rock Band replaces GH as the dominant music game, it's going to take two entries, and RB is going to have to have better word of mouth than GH as it's more expensive and on fewer platforms.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Anihawk's Game Hut?

:lol

 

[schuelma]

I'm kinda surprised at the Fire Emblem love, actually. I think PoR only had 8 or 10 at most.

Grandma's love their Fire Emblem.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

Metroid Prime 3: 16

More. MORE.

 

[ksamedi]

Zelda more popular then GTA?

 

[LanceStern]

6.Bishop Lamont - Sorry for the name mispelling

First of all thanks for the proper reply. Secondly I've never insulted you, if you read properly the only thing that could remotely be insulting is me calling your predictions "insane". Now really is that flaming/insulting? I've questioned your "400k" prediction, isn't that worthy of a reply? Why predict if you can't back it up? Is it that hard to admit that you were wrong?

Well here's how I see it, form page 12 and 13

Can you give it up already? Noone will for a second take your data into consideration for one second after the whole DQS and Statistical Noise thing. You ignore when people question you and act as if they don't exist. Why do you keep trying when you're proven time and time again that you're WRONG.

This has nothing to do with your "TEVS" but more to do with your "PS3 rising to 100k" BS and sticking by your insane DQS prediction, which was what I called you out on in the first place. To that you ignored again.

That sounds pretty harsh to me there bishop. And I really see no where to respond correctly. Especially when "BS" is used. You didn't question it, you just flat out called me wrong

For my DQS prediction, I agree my whole first month, week, year LTD prediction was wrong. I stick to my prediction for as long as we see the 2nd and 3rd week sales, where honestly, anything can happen.

Had anyone did that "100k for PS3" thing, I would've called them out on too, so it's not like I'm picking on you.

Did you HONESTLY believe, that I believed the PS3 was going to sell 100k per week by "doubling" it's sales of 8,776?

Moreover, did you honestly think I arrived at that number, by adding it's percentages, assuming that percentage would stay the same for the next 20 weeks and ADDING them together to get an 100% increase in sles == doubling? Honestly you believed I believed that?

 

[AniHawk]

More. MORE.

That's only one more than RE4 for the Wii. It's so going to bomb. Hard.

Zelda more popular then GTA?

Zelda's been in the computer longer. Though, if GTA IV was on the PS2, there would probably be about twice as much by now.