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[donny2112]

I already know that there's no chance in heck for the PS3 to win. I'm mainly going at it from the angle of "complete joke" vs "nice alternative".

Ah, OK.

I interpreted Cooter's "So when will it be game over for Sony in Japan?" as "So when will the PS3 be guaranteed 2nd place in Japan?" The PS3 won't sell as badly as the GameCube when it's all over with, because its starting price is so high, there will be more price drop boosts. The lack of a 360 presence also means that multi-platform games in Japan are almost the same as PS3 exclusives. Whether all that qualifies as a "nice alternative" as far as sales go, I don't know.

What you say is not 100% sure, but it is highly likely.

Not every buyer of FFXIII will be a new PS3 buyer, either, though.

 

[Verve]

Spoiler

*wonders who will be sick enough to make a gif out of it with Wii and PS3 pasted in*

no... don't... please don't...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Did I miss Panther's analysis? I could swear I've been through every page.

I believe he's away for a few days.

The PSP has sold 5,685,800 units since launch ( 2 and a half years into its life ).

IF the PSP manages to stay with relevance long enough in the japanese market and have the longevity of the PS2 ( 8 years from March 2000 to March 2008, lets say ), The PSP will have sold, more or less 17,057,400 ( yeah, I only multiplied the actual LTD times 3, don't flame me, I only do simple math),

if it managed that, it would be a TREMENDOUS success, considering it's sony's first entry in the handheld market. Regardless of software sales, it would mean a PSP2 would be completely feasible.

Of course, the reality is things slow down; especially once that PSP2 releases. Let me look at this a more complicated way. As usual when digging into older data I'll stick with Famitsu.

After week 135, PSP is at 5,615,106.
After week 135, PS2 was at 9,248,591.
After week 384, PS2 is at 19,948,290.
If we assume the ratio of PSP at week 384 to its sales at week 135 to be the same as PS2's, PSP at week 384 would be 5,615,106 * 19,948,290 / 9,248,290 = 12,111,618. Week 384 for PSP would be the week of April 9, 2012.

Meh, I still think that FFXIII will be the real do-or-die game for the PS3.

It doesn't seem that will be out until 2-3 years after the system launched. At that point, it has about as much chance to change perception of the system as the finally-arriving Crisis Core does for PSP.

 

[Pellham]

Isn't it true that when the N64 came out a lot of people bought it for Mario and turned back around and sold the system?

Yeah, but that happened in Japan, and those sold systems ended up in other people's hands anyway (being sold used), so they aren't "lost" sales.

It's actually a pretty common practice for a japanese hardcore gamer to buy a system for one game, beat the game, then sell the system and game. It was done for both Fire Emblem games (GC and Wii) and for the various Zelda games. Or at least, i've read stories about those titles in particular. Probably others out there.

I dunno, I guess the japanese like saving money.

 

[psy18]

I dunno, I guess the japanese like saving money.

me too.

Spoiler

but i have MAJOR weakspot on gaming expenses

 

[Frillen]

What is the best selling version of Minna no Golf in Japan and how much did it sell? Sorry, if someone has already posted this.

 

[Koren]

What is the best selling version of Minna no Golf in Japan and how much did it sell? Sorry, if someone has already posted this.

The first one was double platinum (2M). The second one was near 1.5M (both on PSOne).

The 3 sold 1.2M (just a week after or before FFX, it has probably helped building the installed base), Online one was a flop, 4 was 1.1M.

 

[Moor-Angol]

TOEIC Test Training launched in late March at less than 15K. It is now over 100K. Wow.

Seems like there are many games which are off the chart but they sold from 5k to 8k weekly and sometimes they enter again in top30...

The Kanji Training from Rocket Company for example, or the other one from IE Institute (it appears in last Famitsu chart), Megaman Starforce, and this TOEIC Test, which is going to have a tie-ratio below 10% (very long legs)

People always focus on DS HW sales, but there are a lot of titles which have good sales for a long time (i mean months, not weeks). Not properly a common thing on japanese market, in the past when a game got a tie-ratio around 30% it was called a success, now with DS performance, 30% is normal...

 

[Version 3.0]

Isn't it true that when the N64 came out a lot of people bought it for Mario and turned back around and sold the system?

I don't think so, not so much. It was later in the system's life when people did that for the big games, like Ocarina. But yes, that sort of thing did happen.

 

[sphinx]

If we assume the ratio of PSP at week 384 to its sales at week 135 to be the same as PS2's, PSP at week 384 would be

5,615,106 * 19,948,290 / 9,248,290 = 12,111,618.

Week 384 for PSP would be the week of April 9, 2012.

Thanks for that. The bolded is the number I was trying to reach. If only my math skills were like yours

so, with the number at hand. What would that make the PSP? loser or winner?

anyway, things can actually stop selling at all, like the GCN or the XBX 1. I am not sure PSP can reach 2012 with some kind of relevance. Hell, I doubt the DS be relevant in 2012..

 

[apotema]

PSP would be a big big winner if it reaches that number, I doubt it

 

[Deku]

For PSP to be a winner in the minds of the development community and gamers, it has to sell games. It's never had truly bad hardware sales even at the worst of times.

 

[LanceStern]

Seems like there are many games which are off the chart but they sold from 5k to 8k weekly and sometimes they enter again in top30...

The Kanji Training from Rocket Company for example, or the other one from IE Institute (it appears in last Famitsu chart), Megaman Starforce, and this TOEIC Test, which is going to have a tie-ratio below 10% (very long legs)

People always focus on DS HW sales, but there are a lot of titles which have good sales for a long time (i mean months, not weeks). Not properly a common thing on japanese market, in the past when a game got a tie-ratio around 30% it was called a success, now with DS performance, 30% is normal...

It's kind of funny because the game thought to be utter bombs will sit out of the Top 30 and everyone believes it's dead.

then 3 months later it's back on the charts and is at 400k or more (like some of the titles you mentioned).

Another example is Children of Mana I believe for the DS

 

[Stumpokapow]

It's kind of funny because the game thought to be utter bombs will sit out of the Top 30 and everyone believes it's dead.

then 3 months later it's back on the charts and is at 400k or more (like some of the titles you mentioned).

Another example is Children of Mana I believe for the DS

People only believe that until the half-year and full-year documents come out and then there's a thread full of "WOAH SLEEPER HIT" and then no one believes that anymore.

 

[Version 3.0]

I was looking at the DS vs PS2 drama, and while doing so, I ended up making a "launch to date" chart for all the major systems since the PS2. Below it is a zoom-in of the first 33 weeks. This is using the numbers from Joshua Slone's site, so it's Media-create for most of it, with Famitsu numbers filling in for the early PS2 data. It really puts things into perspective.

The DS really is unprecedented and unrivalled--and it's been supply constrained for a large part of its best sales period on the chart.

I don't see any comebacks on this chart. Everything gets settled into its groove pretty much from the start. The DS is the exception, but it was doing excellent numbers before it hit high gear. So if the PS3 manages a comeback, it'll also be unprecedented.

 

[gimz]

wait, the wii sold more than DS and PS2 with the same amount of time? wow

 

[davepoobond]

wait, the wii sold more than DS and PS2 with the same amount of time? wow

GBA sold more than all of them, but ended up levelling off way before the PS2 did.

 

[gimz]

GBA sold more than all of them, but ended up levelling off way before the PS2 did.

so the ps2 started slow at the beginning? i dont really remember... or i didn't even follow the numbers back then x)

 

[Sharp]

so the ps2 started slow at the beginning? i dont really remember... or i didn't even follow the numbers back then x)

It was supply constrained.

 

[laserbeam]

It was supply constrained.

It sold 900,000 in its first weekend in japan. It was hardly hard to get at start.

 

[davepoobond]

so the ps2 started slow at the beginning? i dont really remember... or i didn't even follow the numbers back then x)

just look at the chart. the GBA had greater LTD than PS2 until it hit 14 million, at which point everyone who wanted it pretty much bought it, and alte adopters started buying the GBA which meant less growth than normal.

PS2 didn't hit that until about 20 million.

 

[iamblades]

so the ps2 started slow at the beginning? i dont really remember... or i didn't even follow the numbers back then x)

It didn't start off slow as much as it had fairly serious supply issues for about the first year.

 

[PkunkFury]

GBA sold more than all of them, but ended up levelling off way before the PS2 did.

was that because the DS launched?

 

[davepoobond]

was that because the DS launched?

i'm not exactly sure, but i think its just when Nintendo's game development started to shift towards DS (less GBA games coming out, basically). IIRC GBA just tapered off in the year before the DS and then it was accelerated by the DS' release

 

[laserbeam]

i'm not exactly sure, but i think its just when Nintendo's game development started to shift towards DS (less GBA games coming out, basically). IIRC GBA just tapered off in the year before the DS and then it was accelerated by the DS' release

Nintendo in japan abandoned the GBA basically the day the DS came out unlike NOA. NOA liked the 2 selling but Japan figured it might cannabilize sales. I imagine DS sales for 08 will jump a bit in the US when the GBA is no longer available

 

[davepoobond]

Nintendo in japan abandoned the GBA basically the day the DS came out unlike NOA. NOA liked the 2 selling but Japan figured it might cannabilize sales. I imagine DS sales for 08 will jump a bit in the US when the GBA is no longer available

are you saying they're discontinuing the GBA in America soon?

 

[laserbeam]

are you saying they're discontinuing the GBA in America soon?

They announced ealry this year that 07 was the last year for the GBA in NA and after christmas its done. Sales are finally slowing for it and then people will be pushed to jump on the DS wagon

 

[davepoobond]

They announced ealry this year that 07 was the last year for the GBA in NA and after christmas its done. Sales are finally slowing for it and then people will be pushed to jump on the DS wagon

i hadn't heard about that. seems kind of ridiculous, actually. the thing still sells by itself, and the DS is on an upswing.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

Excellent chart. It pretty much confirms, again, that the chances of a substantial PS3 comeback are very low and that the future of home console gaming in Japan is Wii. It's proven by the facts that:

1. No console has ever overtaken a winning competitor.
2. The DS's amazingly rapid and superior growth compared to the GBA and in the face of a legitimate market presence (PSP) indicates that Nintendo has tapped into new trends of gaming that are becoming amazingly popular. The Wii, created in similar spirit, will replicate that success.

 

[laserbeam]

i hadn't heard about that. seems kind of ridiculous, actually. the thing still sells by itself, and the DS is on an upswing.

Theres always the possibility of a DS price cut shortly after the GBA is axed. That would spur the GBA crowd to finally jump over. Alot of kids will say they want a nintendo handheld and the parents will just see the cheaper GBA and grab that.

Axe the GBA and all thats there is the DS to buy. You could see a pretty hefty increase of DS sales

 

[davepoobond]

Theres always the possibility of a DS price cut shortly after the GBA is axed. That would spur the GBA crowd to finally jump over. Alot of kids will say they want a nintendo handheld and the parents will just see the cheaper GBA and grab that.

Axe the GBA and all thats there is the DS to buy. You could see a pretty hefty increase of DS sales

soooo axe a money maker

then cut the price on the remaining money maker to make less money


....


its like saying if sony stopped all ps2 production then everyone would get a ps3.

 

[laserbeam]

soooo axe a money maker

then cut the price on the remaining money maker to make less money


....


its like saying if sony stopped all ps2 production then everyone would get a ps3.

GBA has been on a steady decline sales wise on the year. Softwares been more or less stopped. Christmas willbe a fitting last hurrah. They are selling nearly 8 DS for every 1 GBA.

 

[knkng]

soooo axe a money maker

then cut the price on the remaining money maker to make less money


....


its like saying if sony stopped all ps2 production then everyone would get a ps3.

Except the GBA -> DS scenario is actually plausible. Also, considering the current sales of the DS, it becomes a moot point. It doesn't matter if GBA owners switch over or not, the DS will sell through the roof regardless.

I actually kind of prefer that they get rid of some of the clutter, though. We don't need GBA units in mass production when there's a GBA slot right on the bottom of the DS.

 

[Version 3.0]

are you saying they're discontinuing the GBA in America soon?

Fry's is having a fire sale now, all GBA games $5-$20, they'll soon be not carrying it. I was shocked; they still carry Xbox and Gamecube games and systems.

 

[Galactic Fork]

wait, the wii sold more than DS and PS2 with the same amount of time? wow

The DS had an amazing launch and then just kinda died for a little while. It wasn't until brain training and nintendogs that it got up to 50k a week, and then in the xmas of 2005 it exploded. Except for supply constraints, hasn't looked back.

 

[charlequin]

its like saying if sony stopped all ps2 production then everyone would get a ps3.

If Sony discontinued the ps2 and simultaneously dropped the ps3 price to $129 US dollars I'd certainly go out and get a ps3.

 

[PkunkFury]

soooo axe a money maker

then cut the price on the remaining money maker to make less money

They've been only making software for the DS for awhile now. The main idea is to sell software, so it makes sense to consolidate the userbase on the machine with active development. Cutting the prcie on the DS will drop it under $100, which is the magic price point. It should spur new markets for their software, with younger kids buying DS and older people who don't want to commit as much money. Really, it's better for gamers, too, that they stop splitting their attention on two seperate devices. GBA should have died sooner...

 

[Deku]

GBA is a true cash cow and has been for all of 2006. Micro was their last marketing effort for it and it was way back in fall of 2005.

In Japan the platform has been wrapped up long ago, but NA is about a year and a half behind.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Edit: Wait I misunderstood, the Wii version did as bad as most 3rd party Wii games.

So 20.000 first day sales are bad now? Wow!

 

[laserbeam]

So 20.000 first day sales are bad now? Wow!

Its that damned DS. making what used to be normal sales seem like total shit lol

 

[Brak]

They've been only making software for the DS for awhile now. The main idea is to sell software, so it makes sense to consolidate the userbase on the machine with active development. Cutting the prcie on the DS will drop it under $100, which is the magic price point. It should spur new markets for their software, with younger kids buying DS and older people who don't want to commit as much money. Really, it's better for gamers, too, that they stop splitting their attention on two seperate devices. GBA should have died sooner...

They can't make enough DS units as it is, why the hell would they cut the price?

 

[LanceStern]

So 20.000 first day sales are bad now? Wow!

I think it's because, like Naruto, DK Jet Race, Harvest Moon and more, that the first day sales of the lower-advertised Wii 3rd party titles are about as high as they are going to get.

That and the DS spoiled us with all these million sellers.

 

[mj1108]

Theres always the possibility of a DS price cut shortly after the GBA is axed. That would spur the GBA crowd to finally jump over. Alot of kids will say they want a nintendo handheld and the parents will just see the cheaper GBA and grab that.

Axe the GBA and all thats there is the DS to buy. You could see a pretty hefty increase of DS sales

There is absolutely NO REASON for a price cut at this point. Considering the unit has already outsold the lifetime GBA number in Japan alone says that they aren't having any trouble selling them.

The only territory the GBA is still selling in big numbers is NA.

 

[GrimReaper]

Fry's is having a fire sale now, all GBA games $5-$20, they'll soon be not carrying it.

I read somewhere on these board that some stores (at least in Canada) are going to sell all their stocks of GBA micro and SP at a lower price to clear of what they have left. (something around 29$-39$ CAN)

 

[Version 3.0]

I read somewhere on these board that some stores (at least in Canada) are going to sell all their stocks of GBA micro and SP at a lower price to clear of what they have left. (something around 29$-39$ CAN)

Fry's doesn't have the hardware on sale, just the GBA software. And it's really gutted already (in Las Vegas...we only have 1 Fry's), less than half the section is left and it's mostly just a few titles in large quantity.

 

[laserbeam]

Fry's doesn't have the hardware on sale, just the GBA software. And it's really gutted already (in Las Vegas...we only have 1 Fry's), less than half the section is left and it's mostly just a few titles in large quantity.

very similiar where I am and we have 2 Fry's. Im starting to wonder if NOA plans to off the GBA prior to Christmas now or at least make it so outside of hardware nothing else exists forcing the step up to DS

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I read somewhere on these board that some stores (at least in Canada) are going to sell all their stocks of GBA micro and SP at a lower price to clear of what they have left. (something around 29$-39$ CAN)

All GBAs except the SP+ were $29.99 for the last week. That sale has concluded.

 

[GrimReaper]

I just searched for it to make sure, Eb games stores in Canada are offering this.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=7043348&postcount=427

edit: were

 

[Moor-Angol]

I think it's because, like Naruto, DK Jet Race, Harvest Moon and more, that the first day sales of the lower-advertised Wii 3rd party titles are about as high as they are going to get.

That and the DS spoiled us with all these million sellers.

Uhm...
when a system is around 18mln, 20k for first day is a bomba
when a system is around 3mln.... it's not a bomba, should i have to post some DS 3rd party game numbers after 7 months it was on the market?

 

[LanceStern]

Uhm...
when a system is around 18mln, 20k for first day is a bomba
when a system is around 3mln.... it's not a bomba, should i have to post some DS 3rd party game numbers after 7 months it was on the market?

Like previously stated about PS3 hardware sales being small even though it is increasing every week...

it doesn't change that jikkyou is debuting small, and like most low-profile Wii games, that debut is close to its LTD. And a 50-70k LTD still looks small compared to the way some Wii titles sell.

Sure this is Jikkyou we're talking about, but still... it's 20k. Just my take